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The article discusses a study by N. Bochow and N. Boers, published in the issue, which designed a novel model of the coupled forest-atmosphere system and used it to search for signs of Amazon dieback. Topics include comparison of global climate model simulations, detection of early signs of Amazon Forest dieback, and avenues for future model improvements.

Amazon forest dieback is seen as a potential tipping point under climate change. These concerns are partly based on an early coupled climate–carbon cycle simulation that produced unusually strong drying and warming in Amazonia. In contrast, the fifth-generation Earth system models (Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP5) produced few examples of Amazon dieback under climate change. Here we examine results from seven sixth-generation models (Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, CMIP6), which include interactive vegetation carbon and in some cases interactive forest fires. Although these models typically project increases in area-mean forest carbon across Amazonia under CO2 -induced climate change, five of the seven models also produce abrupt reductions in vegetation carbon, which indicate localised dieback events. The northern South America (NSA) region, which contains most of the rainforest, is especially vulnerable in the models. These dieback events, some of which are mediated by fire, are preceded by an increase in the amplitude of the seasonal cycle in near-surface temperature, which is consistent with more extreme dry seasons. Based on the ensemble mean of the detected dieback events we estimate that 7±5 % of the NSA region will experience abrupt downward shifts in vegetation carbon for every degree of global warming past 1.5 ∘ C. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term meteorological analyzes suggest an increase in air temperature and a decrease in rainfall over the Amazon biome. The effect of these climate changes on the forest remains unresolved, because field observations on functional traits are sparse in time and space, and the results from remote sensing analyses are divergent. Then, we analyzed the drought response in a 'terra firme' forest fragment in the southwestern Amazonia, during an extreme drought event influenced by ENSO episode (2015/2017), focusing on stem growth, litter production, functional traits and forest canopy dynamics. We use the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), corrected by Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC) to generate the enhanced vegetation index (EVI) and green chromatic coordinate (Gcc) vegetation indices. We monitor stem growth and measure the functional traits of trees in situ, such as the potential at which the plant loses 50% of hydraulic conductivity (P50), turgor loss point (πTLP), hydraulic safety margin (HSM) and isohydricity. Our results suggest that: (a) during the dry season, there is a smooth reduction in EVI values (browning) and an increase in the wet season (greening); (b) in the dry season, leaf flush occurs, when the water table still has a quota at the limit of the root zone; (c) the forest showed moderate resistance to drought, with water as the primary limiting factor, and the thickest trees were the most resistant; and (d) a decline in stem growth post-El-Niño 2015/2016 was observed, suggesting that the persistence of negative rainfall anomalies may be as critical to the forest as the drought episode itself. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has substantially increased the frequency of extreme droughts in the Amazon basin, generating concern about impacts on the world's largest tropical forest, which contributes about one‐seventh of the global vegetation carbon sink. Most research to understand drought impacts has focused on the immediate influences of such events, neglecting post‐drought effects on ecosystems recovery. Since ecological processes are influenced by antecedent conditions, we analyzed whether extreme droughts affect vegetation growth (i.e., net primary productivity, NPP) recovery. Here, we evaluated the NPP in the Amazon basin from 2003 to 2020, a period in which drought frequency was almost double the decadal incidence of the last century. We show that NPP does respond to the coupled impacts of individual droughts and the post‐drought impacts during ecosystem recovery. In particular, our results reveal that the ecosystems undergoing recovery show NPP about 13% lower than reference values based on the pre‐drought state or in areas undisturbed by drought. NPP deficits have consistently increased with the extreme droughts of 2005, 2010, and 2015 due to the combined effects of disturbances magnitude and the length of recovery. If the expected increase in drought frequency and intensity does occur, reduced recovery may lead the Amazon Forest to an alternative ecosystem state with lower carbon uptake, contributing to a warming global climate. Plain Language Summary: Extreme droughts cause significant impacts on forest systems. Although drought disturbances are widely quantified, few studies address the impacts of post‐drought effects during the recovery period. In this work, we show that forests undergoing post‐drought recovery show lower levels of productivity than undisturbed systems. Recovery debts vary with drought intensity and the recovery time after each event. Global warming is projected to increase drought intensity and frequency worldwide and recovery debts may promote a decrease in forests carbon uptake. Key Points: Forests undergoing post‐drought recovery show lower levels of productivity than undisturbed systemsRecovery debts vary not only with the degree of intensity of the drought but also with the recovery time after each event [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical rainforests provide essential ecosystem services to agricultural areas, including moisture recycling. In the Amazon basin, drought frequency has increased in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, but the role of forests, ocean, and nonforested areas in causing or mitigating drought has not been determined. Using a precipitationshed moisture tracking framework, we quantify the contribution sources of evaporation to rainfall in Rondônia in the Brazilian Amazon. Forests account for ∼48% of annual rainfall on average, and more than half of the forest source is from protected areas (PAs). During droughts in 2005 and 2010, moisture supply decreased from oceans and nonforested areas, while supply from forests was stable and compensated for the decrease. Remote sensing and land surface models corroborate the relative insensitivity of forest evapotranspiration to droughts. Forests mitigate drought in the agricultural study region, providing an important ecosystem service that could be disrupted with further deforestation. Plain Language Summary: Tropical rainforests provide ecosystem services for humanity, including moisture recycling, which refers to moisture that evaporates from a forest, travels through the atmosphere, and returns as precipitation downwind. Drought frequency has increased in parts of the Amazon, but the role of forest ecosystem services in mitigating or exacerbating droughts is not known. We used a climate model to examine the contribution of forest, ocean, and nonforested areas, which include agriculture, to rainfall during normal and drought years in the Brazilian State of Rondônia in the Amazon Ocean sources contributed less during severe droughts, and forests contributed more and mitigated the reduction of rainfall. We conclude that the rainfall in this part of the Amazon is vulnerable to forest loss in other parts of the Amazon, which buffers the magnitude of rainfall reduction during drought events. Key Points: During drought years, ocean sources of precipitation failed while the percent contribution from forests increasedRainfall in a key agricultural region of the Amazon is vulnerable to forest lossForests are important for precipitation for this agricultural region of the Amazon, but forests have varying levels of protection [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Over recent decades, biomass gains in remaining old-growth Amazonia forests have declined due to environmental change. Amazonia's huge size and complexity makes understanding these changes, drivers, and consequences very challenging. Here, using a network of permanent monitoring plots at the Amazon–Cerrado transition, we quantify recent biomass carbon changes and explore their environmental drivers. Our study area covers 30 plots of upland and riparian forests sampled at least twice between 1996 and 2016 and subject to various levels of fire and drought. Using these plots, we aimed to: (1) estimate the long-term biomass change rate; (2) determine the extent to which forest changes are influenced by forest type; and (3) assess the threat to forests from ongoing environmental change. Overall, there was no net change in biomass, but there was clear variation among different forest types. Burning occurred at least once in 8 of the 12 riparian forests, while only 1 of the 18 upland forests burned, resulting in losses of carbon in burned riparian forests. Net biomass gains prevailed among other riparian and upland forests throughout Amazonia. Our results reveal an unanticipated vulnerability of riparian forests to fire, likely aggravated by drought, and threatening ecosystem conservation at the Amazon southern margins. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The absorption of atmospheric water directly into leaves enables plants to alleviate the water stress caused by low soil moisture, hydraulic resistance in the xylem and the effect of gravity on the water column, while enabling plants to scavenge small inputs of water from leaf‐wetting events. By increasing the availability of water, and supplying it from the top of the canopy (in a direction facilitated by gravity), foliar uptake (FU) may be a significant process in determining how forests interact with climate, and could alter our interpretation of current metrics for hydraulic stress and sensitivity. FU has not been reported for lowland tropical rainforests; we test whether FU occurs in six common Amazonian tree genera in lowland Amazônia, and make a first estimation of its contribution to canopy–atmosphere water exchange. We demonstrate that FU occurs in all six genera and that dew‐derived water may therefore be used to "pay" for some morning transpiration in the dry season. Using meteorological and canopy wetness data, coupled with empirically derived estimates of leaf conductance to FU (kfu), we estimate that the contribution by FU to annual transpiration at this site has a median value of 8.2% (103 mm/year) and an interquartile range of 3.4%–15.3%, with the biggest sources of uncertainty being kfu and the proportion of time the canopy is wet. Our results indicate that FU is likely to be a common strategy and may have significant implications for the Amazon carbon budget. The process of foliar water uptake may also have a profound impact on the drought tolerance of individual Amazonian trees and tree species, and on the cycling of water and carbon, regionally and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We test proposed generic tipping point early warning signals in a complex climate model (HadCM3) which simulates future dieback of the Amazon rainforest. The equation governing tree cover in the model suggests that zero and non-zero stable states of tree cover co-exist, and a transcritical bifurcation is approached as productivity declines. Forest dieback is a non-linear change in the non-zero tree cover state, as productivity declines, which should exhibit critical slowing down. We use an ensemble of versions of HadCM3 to test for the corresponding early warning signals. However, on approaching simulated Amazon dieback, expected early warning signals of critical slowing down are not seen in tree cover, vegetation carbon or net primary productivity. The lack of a convincing trend in autocorrelation appears to be a result of the system being forced rapidly and non-linearly. There is a robust rise in variance with time, but this can be explained by increases in inter-annual temperature and precipitation variability that force the forest. This failure of generic early warning indicators led us to seek more system-specific, observable indicators of changing forest stability in the model. The sensitivity of net ecosystem productivity to temperature anomalies (a negative correlation) generally increases as dieback approaches, which is attributable to a non-linear sensitivity of ecosystem respiration to temperature. As a result, the sensitivity of atmospheric CO anomalies to temperature anomalies (a positive correlation) increases as dieback approaches. This stability indicator has the benefit of being readily observable in the real world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale wildfires are expected to accelerate forest dieback in Amazônia, but the fire vulnerability of tree species remains uncertain, in part due to the lack of studies relating fire-induced mortality to both fire behavior and plant traits. To address this gap, we established two sets of experiments in southern Amazonia. First, we tested which bark traits best predict heat transfer rates ( R) through bark during experimental bole heating. Second, using data from a large-scale fire experiment, we tested the effects of tree wood density ( WD), size, and estimated R (inverse of cambium insulation) on tree mortality after one to five fires. In the first experiment, bark thickness explained 82% of the variance in R, while the presence of water in the bark reduced the difference in temperature between the heat source and the vascular cambium, perhaps because of high latent heat of vaporization. This novel finding provides an important insight for improving mechanistic models of fire-induced cambium damage from tropical to temperate regions. In the second experiment, tree mortality increased with increasing fire intensity (i.e. as indicated by bark char height on tree boles), which was higher along the forest edge, during the 2007 drought, and when the fire return interval was 3 years instead of one. Contrary to other tropical studies, the relationship between mortality and fire intensity was strongest in the year following the fires, but continued for 3 years afterwards. Tree mortality was low (≤20%) for thick-barked individuals (≥18 mm) subjected to medium-intensity fires, and significantly decreased as a function of increasing tree diameter, height and wood density. Hence, fire-induced tree mortality was influenced not only by cambium insulation but also by other traits that reduce the indirect effects of fire. These results can be used to improve assessments of fire vulnerability of tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the environmental conditions of the Amazon River Region in the 21st century. According to the author, highways, dams, and agriculture have contributed to the dieback of the Amazon forest, which in turn prompted conservation efforts to preserve the tropical forest and advance indigenous peoples' rights in the Amazon. Topics include the environmental impact of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the loss of biodiversity in the Amazon, the ecological impact of Amazon dieback, such as an impairment of the Amazon's ability to regulate climate, and an overview of the World Bank's Amazon dieback report "Assessment of the Risk of Amazon Dieback."

•Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. •We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). •Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m−2 for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO2 fertilization. •The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO2 is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO2 on tropical ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A combined GCM analogue model and GCM land surface representation is used to investigate the influences of climatology and land surface parameterisation on modelled Amazonian vegetation change. This modelling structure (called IMOGEN) captures the main features of the changes in surface climate as estimated by a GCM with enhanced atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Advantage is taken of IMOGEN's computational speed which allows multiple simulations to be carried out to assess the robustness of the GCM results. The timing of forest dieback is found to be sensitive to the initial ''pre-industrial'' climate, as well as uncertainties in the representation of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. Changing from a Q10 form for plant dark and maintanence respiration (as used in the coupled GCM runs) to a respiration proportional to maximum photosynthesis, reduces the biomass lost from Amazonia in the 21st century. Replacing the GCM control climate (which has about 25% too little rain in the annual mean over Amazonia) with an observed climatology increases the CO2 concentration at which rainfall drops to critical levels, and thereby further delays the dieback. On the other hand, calibration of the canopy photosynthesis model against Amazonian flux data tends to lead to earlier forest dieback. Further advances are required in both GCM rainfall simulation and land-surface process representation before a clearer picture will emerge on the timing of possible Amazonian forest dieback. However, it seems likely that these advances will overall lead to projections of later forest dieback as GCM control climates become more realistic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A suite of simulations with the HadCM3LC coupled climate-carbon cycle model is used to examine the various forcings and feedbacks involved in the simulated precipitation decrease and forest dieback. Rising atmospheric CO2 is found to contribute 20% to the precipitation reduction through the physiological forcing of stomatal closure, with 80% of the reduction being seen when stomatal closure was excluded and only radiative forcing by CO2 was included. The forest dieback exerts two positive feedbacks on the precipitation reduction; a biogeophysical feedback through reduced forest cover suppressing local evaporative water recycling, and a biogeochemical feedback through the release of CO2 contributing to an accelerated global warming. The precipitation reduction is enhanced by 20% by the biogeophysical feedback, and 5% by the carbon cycle feedback from the forest dieback. This analysis helps to explain why the Amazonian precipitation reduction simulated by HadCM3LC is more extreme than that simulated in other GCMs; in the fully-coupled, climate-carbon cycle simulation, approximately half of the precipitation reduction in Amazonia is attributable to a combination of physiological forcing and biogeophysical and global carbon cycle feedbacks, which are generally not included in other GCM simulations of future climate change. The analysis also demonstrates the potential contribution of regional-scale climate and ecosystem change to uncertainties in global CO2 and climate change projections. Moreover, the importance of feedbacks suggests that a human-induced increase in forest vulnerability to climate change may have implications for regional and global scale climate sensitivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The first GCM climate change projections to include dynamic vegetation and an interactive carbon cycle produced a very significant amplification of global warming over the 21st century. Under the IS92a ''business as usual'' emissions scenario CO2 concentrations reached about 980 ppmv by 2100, which is about 280 ppmv higher than when these feedbacks were ignored. The major contribution to the increased CO2 arose from reductions in soil carbon because global warming is assumed to accelerate respiration. However, there was also a lesser contribution from an alarming loss of the Amazonian rainforest. This paper describes the phenomenon of Amazonian forest dieback under elevated CO2 in the Hadley Centre climate-carbon cycle model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]