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Background: A lifelong gluten‐free (GF) diet to manage coeliac disease is recognised to be challenging. This paper comprises two studies: study one aimed to report the opinions of adults with coeliac disease on review provision and explore factors influencing dietary adherence. Study two aimed to report dietetic provision for adults with coeliac disease. Methods: A cross‐sectional online survey was completed by 722 adults with coeliac disease, including validated dietary adherence, health literacy and quality‐of‐life questionnaires. An online and paper survey designed to capture the provision of dietetic services to adults with coeliac disease was completed by 88 dietetic departments within the United Kingdom. Results: Only 26% of adults with coeliac disease were offered annual reviews. In contrast, 85% considered reviews important, with 62% preferring dietetic provision. Those who considered reviews important had lower health literacy, greater dietary burden, poorer GF dietary adherence and lower GF food knowledge (all p < 0.05) compared with those who did not consider reviews important. GF dietary adherence was associated with health literacy, self‐regulatory behaviours, dietary burden and GF food knowledge; 53% agreed with the 'cost of GF food restricts what I eat'; they had poorer GF dietary adherence compared with those who disagreed (p < 0.001). More than 72% of dietetic coeliac review provision provided content on improving access to GF foods and eating out of the home. Conclusions: A subpopulation of adults with coeliac disease have a greater need for support and guidance, which supports the viewpoint that limited resources should be targeted towards patients with the most need for support to enable successful disease management. Key points: The majority of adults with coeliac disease were not receiving healthcare reviews for coeliac disease, whereas 85% would like to have reviews.Adults living with coeliac disease who had lower health literacy, poorer gluten‐free (GF) food knowledge and poorer GF dietary adherence score rated healthcare reviews as important.A varied provision of dietetic services for coeliac disease reviews was evident across the United Kingdom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduced in the United Kingdom in 2012, Universal Credit (UC) is a welfare benefit that replaces six working-age 'legacy' benefits for out-of-work and low-income people. Designed with the aim of simplifying benefits and incentivising paid work, UC represents a deepening of conditionality in the British welfare state. Considering these developments, this paper quantitatively investigates the effect of UC on recipients' life satisfaction. Data from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study is analysed, primarily using a fixed-effects regression approach. Results reveal a significantly negative effect of UC recipience on life satisfaction. Robustness checks and alternative model specifications, including difference-in-differences and inverse probability weighting, confirm this finding. Additionally, mediation models give credence to the idea that UC also negatively affects life satisfaction indirectly by increasing psychological distress. Heterogeneity tests indicate that UC has a less negative effect on single parents' life satisfaction compared to non-parents. Meanwhile, UC has a significantly more negative effect on the life satisfaction of people not in paid work (for reasons other than unemployment) than those in paid work. Discussion focuses on the potential effect of welfare conditionality specifically, and implications for future research and policy are explored. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a methodology to estimate the probability of basic causes of allision accidents between vessels and offshore platforms that overcomes the problem of data scarcity required for causal analysis. The approach uses information derived from incidental data and expert elicitation, processed by a multiple attribute utility method and hierarchical Bayesian analysis. First, the methodology is detailed, briefly describing the adopted approaches. A dataset of allision incidents provided mainly by the UK Health and Safety Executive and other agencies is prepared. The features of the incidents' causation in terms of the causal factors and basic causes are presented and discussed. A novel scheme is proposed to evaluate the annual occurrence rates of basic causes of accidents from the relative importance of each basic cause derived by the Deck of Cards method. Then, a hierarchical Bayesian analysis is conducted to predict the posterior distribution of the occurrence rate of each basic cause in the time frame under analysis. The proposed holistic methodology provides transparent estimates of allision causation probabilities from limited and heterogeneous datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accessible summary: What is known on the subject?: Mental healthcare requires acceptance of suicide and flexible attitudes especially in relation to caring for people who have suicidal thoughts or who have attempted suicide. Nurse education programmes for student nurses can shape positively the attitudes of individual participants, yet limited research exists on what nursing students' attitudes currently are towards people who are suicidal. What this paper adds to existing knowledge?: This paper adds to the developing international comparative work that is providing a greater understanding of cultural perceptions of suicide amongst students. This paper along with existing literature highlights a potential relationship between certain religious belief systems and their potential to be protective against suicide. At the same time, such religious belief is more likely to be associated with more judgmental attitude towards suicidal behaviour. This paper using a validated research tool, devised by a research psychologist, scored for the first time, individual student attitudes towards caring for people that are suicidal, whilst establishing the overall differences between the two countries from which the data are collected. What are the implications for practice?: This paper offers potential explanations for differences in nursing students' attitudes between the UK and Turkey. Disparities under discussion include gender, type of education, culture and religion. This is an important discussion in the consideration of nurse education worldwide. It is recognized that students may come from a variety of different backgrounds, with varying personal and social attitudes to begin with; yet, there exists the potential to positively influence overall attitudes towards service users whilst learners are still within a training programme, consisting of education and practice experiences. The merits of a specialist mental health nurse training programme and its potential to impact more favourably on students attitudes deserve more attention and research. Abstract: Introduction: Suicide is a major public health issue internationally, and the impact of positive or negative attitudes amongst the mental health professional workforce warrants scrutiny. The study aimed to examine English and Turkish nursing students' attitudes towards people with suicidal behaviour. Method: This cross‐cultural study reports on attitudes of 240 nursing students towards suicide in Turkey and 82 nursing students in the UK. A reliable and valid 24 item “Attitudes towards Suicide Scale” and “Social Reactions to Suicidal Persons Scale” were used to measure attitudes. Results: The UK nursing students were found to display more accepting attitudes to suicide, and scored higher on acceptability of suicide, seeing suicide as a solution and open reporting and discussion of suicide subscales than their Turkish counterparts. Turkish nursing students scored higher on punishment after death and hiding suicidal behaviour subscales than the UK students. Turkish nursing students scored significantly higher on deterring subscale of reactions to a suicidal peer scale than the UK nursing students. Implications for practice: It is vital for nurse students to develop positive acceptance of suicide through education, reflection and clinical supervision to be more therapeutic towards suicidal patients. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: This paper studies spillovers across macroeconomic sectors in the United Kingdom, using data from the Bank of England's Flow of Funds statistics. We combine two different approaches to quantify the spread of economic deterioration to assess whether sectors with large bilateral economic linkages as measured through network data have a greater statistical likelihood of spillovers between them. The combination of both approaches reveals the Monetary Financial Institutions sector's role as shock absorber and identifies the most important channels of spillovers. The inferential discrepancies between network data and statistical spillovers highlight the contribution of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the case of current technology, most of the measurements are focused on geometric distance, and the distribution of data is not considered. In order to compensate for this shortcoming of geometric distance measurement, this paper uses the KL distance as the similarity measurement standard for uncertain data, and the DOUD_C algorithm and COUD_C algorithm are proposed respectively in the discrete domain and continuous domain. In order to solve the problem of efficient clustering of the high dimensional data, this paper considers the data structure of grid, and BROUD_C algorithm is proposed. According to the adjacency characteristic of the grid, the cluster process is extended continuously, the algorithm can find clusters of arbitrary shapes, and we can filter a large number of isolated points, it solves the uncertain data clustering problem effectively in the obstacle space. The experimental results show that compared to the OBS_UK_means with VPA and SDA pruning algorithm and FOPTICS algorithm, the clustering performance of BROUD_C algorithm is more significant and CPU has less execution time in the obstacle space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systematic differences in the attitudes of men and women towards risk is well established. In this paper, we investigate the joint role of two prominent psychological characteristics in explaining this difference. Our starting point is that risk assessments can be thought of, in general terms, to combine beliefs about the probability of negative outcomes occurring with a subjective valuation of how painful that negative outcome would be. Exploiting large‐scale panel data from the United Kingdom, we find that gender differences in financial optimism and financial loss aversion – the stronger psychological response to monetary losses than monetary gains – explain a substantial proportion of the parallel gender difference in willingness to take risks. This result prevails even after controlling for the Big Five personality traits, suggesting that the prominent psychological characteristics capture different aspects of behaviour than the Big Five. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Within the European Union (EU), substantial efforts are being made to achieve economic and social cohesion, and the reduction of health inequalities between EU regions is integral to this process. This paper is the first to examine how self-reported conditions and non-communicable diseases (NCDs) vary spatially between and within countries. Methods: Using 2014 European Social Survey (ESS) data from 20 countries, this paper examines how regional inequalities in self-reported conditions and NCDs vary for men and women in 174 regions (levels 1 and 2 Nomenclature of Statistical Territorial Units, 'NUTS'). We document absolute and relative inequalities across Europe in the prevalence of eight conditions: general health, overweight/obesity, mental health, heart or circulation problems, high blood pressure, back, neck, muscular or joint pain, diabetes and cancer. Results: There is considerable inequality in self-reported conditions and NCDs between the regions of Europe, with rates highest in the regions of continental Europe, some Scandinavian regions and parts of the UK and lowest around regions bordering the Alps, in Ireland and France. However, for mental health and cancer, rates are highest in regions of Eastern European and lowest in some Nordic regions, Ireland and isolated regions in continental Europe. There are also widespread and consistent absolute and relative regional inequalities in all conditions within countries. These are largest in France, Germany and the UK, and smallest in Denmark, Sweden and Norway. There were higher inequalities amongst women. Conclusion: Using newly available harmonized morbidity data from across Europe, this paper shows that there are considerable regional inequalities within and between European countries in the distribution of self-reported conditions and NCDs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

thompson c., yang h. & crouch s. (2012) Clinical simulation fidelity and nurses' identification of critical event risk: a signal detection analysis. Journal of Advanced Nursing 68(11), 2477-2485. Abstract Aims. This article is a report of a study exploring the effect of increasing fidelity on nurses' risk detection in clinical simulation and the effect of clinical experience on nurses' risk detection ability. Background. Clinical environments can be recreated successfully using simulation. However, how judgement changes as simulation fidelity increases is unknown. Knowledge of the effects of increased fidelity on judgement may help in the design of educational interventions seeking to improve clinical judgement in nurses. Design. Quasi experimental signal detection study. Method. During 2008-2009, using a quasi experimental signal detection design, 63 nursing students and 34 experienced nurses were presented with 25 paper and 25 human simulator 'cases' based on real patient records from a single UK National Health Service hospital. Nurses judged whether a simulated case was 'at risk' or 'not at risk' of a critical event. Clinical judgement performance was measured using standard signal detection measures. Findings. Judgement performance, as measured by hit rates and signal detection ability were significantly lower in higher fidelity clinical simulations. False alarm rates and bias (β) did not differ according to the fidelity of simulation. Clinical experience did not predict the ability to detect risk. Conclusion. As fidelity of simulation increased, both novice and experienced nurses' were less likely to be able to separate important clinical risk from clinical noise in a simulated clinical environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential convergence of regional house prices in the UK is examined. In contrast to the existing literature which focuses upon stochastic convergence, the present paper considers alternative forms of convergence. Using a method based upon conditional probabilities of high and low growth rates, tests are employed to detect β-convergence in UK regional house prices. Importantly, given the suggested differences in regional house price dynamics over the course of the cycle in the housing market, β-convergence is considered not only over the full sample of observations available, but over cyclical sub-samples also. Interestingly, while convergence is not detected over the whole sample available, it is observed over the housing market cycle, with overwhelming evidence of convergence detected particularly during the downturn. These findings, supported by results for σ-convergence, show that failure to detect convergence may be due to its episodic nature being masked when arbitrarily defined sample periods are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: Centile curves and standard scores are common in epidemiological research. However, standardised norms and centile growth curves for language disorder that reflect the entire UK local school population do not exist. Methods: Scores on six language indices assessing receptive and expressive functioning of children were obtained from the SCALES population survey. Monolingual English speaking participants were aged between five and nine years. Children who attended special schools at study intake, or who were learning English as an additional language were excluded. We constructed language norms using the LMS method of standardisation which allows for skewed measurements. We made use of probability weights that were produced from a two-step logistic model. Distributions of estimated standard scores from an intensively assessed sub-population and from the full population were contrasted to demonstrate the role of weights. Results: Non-overlapping centile curves and standardised scores at each age were obtained for the six language indices. The use of weights was essential at retrieving the target distribution of the scores. An online calculator that estimates standardised scores for the measures was constructed and made freely available. Conclusions: The findings highlight the usefulness and flexibility of the LMS method at dealing with the standardisation of linguistic and educational measures that are sufficiently continuous. The paper adds to the existing literature by providing population norms for a number of language tests that were calculated from the same group of individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: exposure to air pollution has been shown to increase risk of inflammatory processes and risk of cardiovascular mortality. Such exposure may therefore also be a risk factor for cognitive impairment/dementia. Method: a systematic review of the literature was conducted with databases searched using keywords for air pollution, cognitive decline and dementia. All identified abstracts and potentially relevant articles were double read. For those papers meeting the inclusion criteria, summary tables were prepared and papers quality assessed. Results: from 1,551 abstracts identified, 10 articles were retrieved of which two were rejected. Of the eight remaining six reported prevalent cognitive assessment with historical pollution exposure and two incident cognitive decline, also with historical pollution exposure. In general, an association was reported between exposure and poorer prevalent measures of cognitive function. Data were mixed for incident cognitive decline with one study finding an association and the other not. Reports were limited by a lack of detailed reporting, use of proxy measures of pollution exposure and a lack of clarity regarding cognitive testing methodology and analysis. Conclusion: this systematic review highlights that there is some evidence of a potential association between air pollution and subsequent cognitive decline. Further work is clearly required and longitudinal analysis of ongoing cohort studies or new research would add much needed clarity to this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of CEO overconfidence on the probability of corporate bankruptcy. Using a large dataset of UK firms, we find that firms with overconfident CEOs face a greater risk of failure. The presence of overconfident CEOs leads to a higher risk of bankruptcy in innovative environments, while the impact is insignificant in non-innovative environments. Moreover, overconfident CEOs can increase the bankruptcy risk of firms with less conservative accounting. We find that banks, as major creditors, seem to play an important role in constraining CEO overconfidence, and hence in reducing the likelihood of bankruptcy. Finally, the impact of overconfidence on the probability of bankruptcy is stronger in firms with generalist CEOs than specialist CEOs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multiple state model describes the transitions of the disability risk among the states of active, inactive and dead. Ideally, estimations of transition probabilities and transition intensities rely on longitudinal data; however, most of the national surveys of disability are based on cross-sectional data measuring the disabled status of an individual at one point in time. This paper aims to propose a generic method of the estimation of the expected transition probabilities when the model allows recovery from disability using the UK cross-sectional data. The disability prevalence rates are modelled by taking into consideration the effect of age and time. Under some plausible assumptions concerning the death rates among inactive and active people, the estimated prevalence rates of disability are used to decompose survival probabilities in each state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the possibility that life-long learning promotes intergenerational class mobility. The following two research questions are asked. Is it the case that further education provides individuals coming from less advantaged origins with a second chance to improve on their educational attainment? Is it the case that the returns to further qualifications, in terms of chances of upward class career mobility, are greater for children from less advantaged backgrounds than for children from more advantaged backgrounds? The analyses – that are based on the complete educational and class histories of men and women in a British birth cohort – mainly produce negative findings. Children coming from managerial and professional backgrounds seem to benefit most from further education. More specifically, further education appears to be an effective means of career advancement for individuals of managerial and professional origins who start out in their working lives in relatively low-level class positions. Via further education they can increase or update their qualifications, and in turn enhance their chances of being counter-mobile back to their class of origin. Overall, based on the findings of this paper, we can conclude that qualifications attained through life-long learning primarily serve to maintain, rather than to narrow, inequalities attached to social origins in Britain. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to examine two aspects of the self-employment adjustment of immigrant groups in the UK. First, how the probability of self-employment for males changes with time since migration relative to the native population and second, how the probability of self-employment for males differs between immigrants and the UK-born within ethnic groups. Design/methodology/approach -- Limited dependent variable regression models are estimated using data from the UK Labour Force Survey collected between 2001 and 2005. The results are presented graphically to make clear the differences between ethnic groups. Findings -- The predicted self-employment probability of "Asian" immigrants increases faster than that of natives over the lifecycle while that of "Black" groups declines. Furthermore, the observed lower propensity of UK-born members of certain ethnic groups to be in self-employment is largely explained by differences in human capital. Practical implications -- High rates of self-employment amongst some ethnic groups in the UK are unlikely to be a transitory phenomenon. Originality/value -- While previous work on the UK has examined patterns of self-employment between groups and over time, the paper looks for the first time at how adjustment within groups takes place over the life cycle and across nativity status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows how a Merton-model approach can be used to develop measures of the probability of failure of individual quoted UK companies. Probability estimates are then constructed for a group of failed companies and their properties as leading indicators of failure assessed. Probability estimates of failure for a control group of surviving companies are also constructed. These are used in probit regressions to evaluate the information content of the Merton-based estimates relative to information available in company accounts and in assessing Type I and Type II errors. We also look at power curves and accuracy ratios. The paper shows that there is much useful information in the Merton-style estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of both the short- and long-term course of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) epidemic in Great Britain have demonstrated great uncertainty due to the lack of knowledge of key aspects of the biology and epidemiology of this new disease. Such projections are sensitive to assumptions made regarding the pattern of exposure to BSE-infected animals, the effectiveness of control measures introduced in 1989 and 1996 in reducing this exposure, the functional form of the incubation period distribution and patterns of age-dependent susceptibility/exposure. This paper provides short-term projections for vCJD onsets using the time- and age-distributed onset data to the end of 2000, with results that are directly comparable to the other papers in this issue. These results demonstrate the continued uncertainty in the future scale of this disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper builds on previous research into blood donation behaviour, focusing on perceptions of risk associated with blood donation in the UK. It compares indicators of risk perceptions obtained through probability and importance indicators and calculated using additive versus multiplicative models. It examines the relationships between perceived risk and blood donation with specific attention to donation frequency. The findings demonstrate that apparent perceived risk in blood donation varies substantially depending on the indicator that is used and that a more accurate indicator of risk is obtained if two components of risk are combined through a multiplicative model rather than an additive one. Social risk emerged as the more prominent aspect of perceived risk, implying a high level of trust by donors in the Blood Transfusion Service. Perceived risk was found to be significantly associated with donation frequency, highlighting the need to keep track of donors and to communicate with those whose donations lapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Selection into UK-based GP training has used the Multi-Specialty Recruitment Assessment (MSRA) and a face-to-face selection centre (SC). The MSRA comprises of a situational judgement test and clinical problem-solving test. The SC was suspended during the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is needed to guide national and international selection policy. Aim: To evaluate the validity of GP training selection. Design & setting: A retrospective cohort study using data from UK-based national recruitment to GP training, from 2015–2021. Method: Data were available for 32 215 GP training applicants. The ability of scores from the specialty selection process to predict subsequent performance in the Clinical Skills Assessment (CSA) of the Membership of the Royal College of General Practitioners examination was modelled using path analysis. The effect sizes for sex, professional family background, and world region of qualification were estimated. Results: All component scores of the selection process demonstrated statistically significant independent relationships with CSA performance (P<0.001), thus establishing their predictive validity. All were sensitive to demographic factors. The SC scores had the weakest relationship with future CSA performance. However, for candidates with MSRA scores below the lowest quartile, the relative contribution of the SC scores to predicting CSA performance was similar to that observed for MSRA components. Conclusion: The MSRA has predictive validity in this context. Re-instituting an SC for those with relatively low MSRA scores should be considered. However, the relative costs and potential advantages and disadvantages should be carefully weighed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pasteurised donor human milk is recommended for very low birthweight infants who do not have access to their mother's milk. Although the use of donor milk continues to increase, little is known about the donation experiences of milk bank donors. We aimed to describe and compare enablers, barriers and patterns of human milk donation and identify factors predicting donation volume in a convenience sample of approved milk bank donors in the United Kingdom and the United States. A cross‐sectional online survey was conducted from August 2022 to December 2022. Approved milk bank donors (n = 556) from three milk banks in the United States (n = 369, Mothers' Milk Bank of Florida, Mother's Milk Bank of North Texas and Northwest Mothers Milk Bank) and one milk bank in the United Kingdom (n = 187, Hearts Milk Bank) completed the survey. A substantial portion of donors in both settings reported participating in other forms of milk exchange (51% of U.S. donors vs. 39% of UK donors, p = 0.009). Top donation barriers reported in both settings were completing the serological screening and having enough space to store collected milk. Most donors started donating when their infant was 3 months old or older and reported donating mature milk. The most common source of information related to milk banking in each setting was the internet (United Kingdom–70% vs. United States ‐ 63%, p = 0.112). Variables that predicted lifetime donation volume differed between the United States and the United Kingdom, highlighting the importance of setting‐specific milk banking research. Key messages: Milk bank donors in the United Kingdom and the United States reported primarily receiving milk banking information from the internet and not their health care provider.A substantial portion of human milk bank donors in the United Kingdom and the United States participate in other forms of milk exchange, including sharing with a peer.Participating in other forms of milk exchange did not predict lower milk bank donation volumes.Barriers to donation and predictors of donation volume differed between donors in the United Kingdom and the United States, suggesting setting‐specific research is warranted to improve the donation process globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anderson Gray McKendrick's 1926 paper, 'Applications of mathematics to medical problems', was the earliest reference cited in Dempster et al.'s 1977 paper that defined and popularized the EM algorithm. McKendrick's paper was prominently featured by Joseph Oscar Irwin in his 1962 inaugural address as the President of the Royal Statistical Society (in the UK), entitled 'The place of mathematics in medical and biological statistics'. The link of McKendrick's work to the EM algorithm is due to an improvement made by Irwin on a novel method McKendrick used for estimating an infection rate when the observed data do not distinguish between those individuals who are not susceptible to the infection and those who are susceptible, but do not develop symptoms. This article examines this link, along the way illustrating the central ideas underlying the EM algorithm as well as its properties; the examination also suggests a profiling strategy for speeding up EM, which may be worthy of general investigation. McKendrick's data on an epidemic of cholera are used for illustration and to compare EM with Irwin's method as well as the Newton-Raphson algorithm. Issues beyond computation are also discussed whenever appropriate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines the evolution of joint probability methods in the design and assessment of sea defence structures in the UK, together with the key drivers for these different methods. It highlights why and how the joint exceedance curve techniques were developed initially from the late 1980s and early 1990s, as well as the reasons for the later development of the Join-Sea software system in the mid-1990s, as well as more recently, the implementation of more robust multivariate statistical approaches. The differences between these techniques are outlined, as well as potential errors accounting for how these different techniques are applied to assess different sea defence response functions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper outlines several methods for forecasting the next British general election on a daily basis from 20 months prior using opinion polls. It discusses their performance for previous electoral cycles and shows that the two models with the best historical record lead to substantially different predictions for 2015, but they can be averaged. The historical relationship between the polls and the vote suggests that government support rises substantially in the run up to elections, that Conservatives outperform but Labour underperform relative to the polls, and parties generally recover from low points or decline from high ones. Approximate prediction intervals and probabilities for key events are also generated. Despite the Conservatives trailing in the polls by 7 points in early October 2013, the models suggest a substantial Conservative lead at the 2015 election with a 64% chance of being the largest party and 42% chance of an overall majority. The estimated probability of a hung parliament (40%) is instructive for understanding the operation of the electoral system. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We use the Bayesian model scan approach of Chib, S., X. Zeng, and L. Zhao. 2020. 'On Comparing Asset Pricing Models.' The Journal of Finance 75 (1): 551–577. , and Chib, S., L. Zhao, and G. Zhou. 2023. 'Winners from Winners: A Tale of Risk Factors.' Management Science to examine which are the best performing models in a set of 12 candidate factors in U.K. stock returns. We find that a five-factor model has the highest posterior probability across the whole sample period but the posterior probability is low. The best factor model outperforms traditional factor models using a number of metrics. However the best model performs poorly in pricing a set of anomaly portfolios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Significant proportions of young people experience body dissatisfaction, which has implications for psychological and physical well‐being. Lesson content and perceived competence may be important variables for the experience of body dissatisfaction, yet these have been underexplored in physical education. The aim of this cross‐sectional study is to identify the relationships between body dissatisfaction and perceptions of competence, and to explore whether body dissatisfaction depends on lesson content. METHODS: A paper‐and‐pencil questionnaire was completed by 446 (210 boys, 236 girls) 13‐ to 14‐year‐old pupils from 37 physical education classes. The questionnaire assessed body dissatisfaction and perceived competence in physical education. Lesson content was also recorded. Twenty‐nine of the classes were engaged in team activities, eg, ball games. Eight classes were engaged in individual activities, eg, fitness. RESULTS: Multilevel analysis identified a significant negative association between body dissatisfaction and perceptions of competence in physical education. Lesson content did not significantly predict variations in body dissatisfaction scores. CONCLUSIONS: Teachers should focus on enhancing pupils' perceptions of competence in physical education to support the development of body satisfaction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Longitudinal data sources offer new opportunities for the evaluation of sequential interventions. To adjust for time-dependent confounding in these settings, longitudinal targeted maximum likelihood based estimation (TMLE), a doubly robust method that can be coupled with machine learning, has been proposed. This paper provides a tutorial in applying longitudinal TMLE, in contrast to inverse probability of treatment weighting and g-computation based on iterative conditional expectations. We apply these methods to estimate the causal effect of nutritional interventions on clinical outcomes among critically ill children in a United Kingdom study (Control of Hyperglycemia in Paediatric Intensive Care, 2008-2011). We estimate the probability of a child's being discharged alive from the pediatric intensive care unit by a given day, under a range of static and dynamic feeding regimes. We find that before adjustment, patients who follow the static regime "never feed" are discharged by the end of the fifth day with a probability of 0.88 (95% confidence interval: 0.87, 0.90), while for the patients who follow the regime "feed from day 3," the probability of discharge is 0.64 (95% confidence interval: 0.62, 0.66). After adjustment for time-dependent confounding, most of this difference disappears, and the statistical methods produce similar results. TMLE offers a flexible estimation approach; hence, we provide practical guidance on implementation to encourage its wider use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chain event graphs (CEGs) are a graphical representation of a statistical model derived from event trees. They have previously been applied to cohort studies but not to case-control studies. In this paper, we apply the CEG framework to a Yorkshire, United Kingdom, case-control study of childhood type 1 diabetes (1993-1994) in order to examine 4 exposure variables associated with the mother, 3 of which are fully observed (her school-leaving-age, amniocenteses during pregnancy, and delivery type) and 1 with missing values (her rhesus factor), while incorporating previous type 1 diabetes knowledge. We conclude that the unknown rhesus factor values were likely to be missing not at random and were mainly rhesus-positive. The mother's school-leaving-age and rhesus factor were not associated with the diabetes status of the child, whereas having at least 1 amniocentesis procedure and, to a lesser extent, birth by cesarean delivery were associated; the combination of both procedures further increased the probability of diabetes. This application of CEGs to case-control data allows for the inclusion of missing data and prior knowledge, while investigating associations in the data. Communication of the analysis with the clinical expert is more straightforward than with traditional modeling, and this approach can be applied retrospectively or when assumptions for traditional analyses are not held. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shared Lives (adult placement) is a model of community-based support where an adult who needs support and/or accommodation moves into or regularly visits the home of an approved Shared Lives carer, after they have been matched for compatibility. It is an established but small service which has been used mainly by people with learning disabilities but which has the potential to offer an alternative to traditional services for some older people. However, there is little research on the outcomes for older users of Shared Lives. This paper presents findings from a survey of 150 older people using Shared Lives support across 10 Shared Lives schemes in England, which took place between June 2013 and January 2014. The aim was to identify outcomes for older users of Shared Lives and compare these to outcomes for older users of other social care services. In the absence of an ideal study design involving randomised allocation, statistical matching was used to generate a comparison group from the Adult Social Care Survey from 2011/12, with 121 cases matched to 121 Shared Lives cases. The main outcome measures were Social Care-Related Quality of Life (measured by the ASCOT) and overall quality of life. Findings indicated that Shared Lives can deliver good outcomes for older people, particularly for overall quality of life. In comparison to the matched group of older people using other forms of support, there was some evidence that Shared Lives may deliver better outcomes in some aspects of quality of life. Limitations to the research mean, however, that more work is needed to fully understand the role Shared Lives could play in supporting older people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sparse (and occasionally contradictory) evidence exists regarding the impact of domain on probabilistic updating, some of which suggests that Bayesian word problems with medical content may be especially challenging. The present research aims to address this gap in knowledge through three pre-registered online studies, which involved a total of 2,238 participants. Bayesian word problems were related to one of three domains: medical, daily-life, and abstract. In the first two cases, problems presented realistic content and plausible numerical information, while in the latter, problems contained explicitly imaginary elements. Problems across domains were matched in terms of all relevant statistical values and, as much as possible, wording. Studies 1 and 2 utilized the same set of problems, but different response elicitation methods (i.e., an open-ended and a multiple-choice question, respectively). Study 3 involved a larger number of participants per condition and a smaller set of problems to more thoroughly investigate the magnitude of differences between the domains. There was a generally low rate of correct responses (17.2%, 17.4%, and 14.3% in Studies 1, 2, and 3, respectively), consistent with accuracy levels commonly observed in the literature for this specific task with online samples. Nonetheless, a small but significant difference between domains was observed: participants' accuracy did not differ between medical and daily-life problems, while it was significantly higher in corresponding abstract problems. These results suggest that medical problems are not inherently more difficult to solve, but rather that performance is improved with abstract problems for which participants cannot draw from their background knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Video gamers can play to negate the psychological impact of stress, which may become problematic when users over-rely on the stress relief potential of gaming. This study used a repeated measures experimental design to investigate the relationships between stress, video gaming, and problematic video gaming behaviours in a convenience sample of 40 students at a UK university. The results indicated that positive affect increased and negative affect decreased, whilst a biological stress measure (instantaneous pulse rate) also decreased after a short video gaming session (t(36) = 4.82, p < 0.001, d = 0.79). The results also suggested that video gaming can act as a short-term buffer against the physiological impact of stress. Further research should focus on testing individuals who have been tested for gaming disorder, as opposed to the general population. Research could also utilise variations of the methodological framework used in this study to examine the intensity of a stress relief effect under different social situations. The study's findings in relation to published works are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a novel agent-based, stochastic model, which uses game-theoretic principles to simulate Contract for Difference (CfD) auctions. The framework has use cases and implications for policymakers and renewable generators alike, and can be used by developers to prepare bidding strategy and for policymakers to empirically test auction design. The model is demonstrated through replication of the offshore wind CfD Allocation Round 3 (AR3) pot, and utilises high-level cost modelling distribution data to estimate bid prices for the competing projects. The model produces a distribution of most likely results which better categorises uncertainty, and through comparison of AR3 and simulation results, demonstrates how outcomes can be predicted with reasonable confidence by developers. Analysis show that the transmission network and grid connection charges are a significant barrier for projects in some geographical regions to be awarded a CfD contract, potentially hindering renewable deployment in those areas. Moreover, this paper demonstrates how players can use probability theory to select an optimum bidding strategy which maximises expected profit while factoring the uncertainty inherent in CfD auctions. Results show that a 1200 MW wind farm development can increase potential profits by £135 million over the CfD contract length in exchange for a 25 p.p. chance reduction in being awarded a subsidy. • A novel simulation approach is introduced for analysing the UK's CfD auction • We show how players can attempt to optimise their bid based on expected profits • We demonstrate how uncertainty in auctions can be characterised by developers • Transmission charges act as a barrier for offshore wind projects in some regions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Parkinson's is a neurological disease that is physically debilitating and can be socially isolating. Dance is growing in popularity for people with Parkinson's and claims have been made for its benefits. The paper details a mixed-methods study that examined a 12-week dance project for people with Parkinson's, led by English National Ballet. Methods: The effects on balance, stability and posture were measured through the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale and a plumb-line analysis. The value of participation and movement quality were interpreted through ethnographic methods, grounded theory and Effort analysis. Results: Triangulation of results indicates that people were highly motivated, with 100% adherence, and valued the classes as an important part of their lives. Additionally, results indicated an improvement in balance and stability, although not in posture. Conclusions: Dancing may offer benefit to people with Parkinson's through its intellectual, artistic, social and physical aspects. The paper suggests that a range of research methods is fundamental to capture the importance of a multifaceted activity, such as dance, to those with Parkinson's. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – The aim of this study is to understand how social barriers might result in people with specific learning difficulties coming in contact with the criminal justice system in the UK. The study seeks to apply the social model of disability to conceptualise a statistical relationship between socio-economic status and key life events for people with specific learning difficulties (i.e. diagnosis, educational achievements, and employment). Design/methodology/approach – A cluster sample was used to obtain statistical data from a questionnaire based survey. The study collected quantitative and qualitative data on the life experiences of people with specific learning difficulties (n=77). The paper analyses the quantitative data and discovers statistically significant relationships (p≤0.05) concerning socio-economic status, specific learning difficulties and crime. Findings – Within the data findings age of diagnosis is significantly (p≤0.00) affected when comparing socio-economic status with the offender and non-offender group in the study. Furthermore, the educational achievements (p≤0.00) and employment/unemployment levels (p≤0.00) are dramatically altered by socio-economic status specifically for offenders with specific learning difficulties. These relationships have been conceptualised using the social model of SpLD in terms of barriers to exclusion. Originality/value – To date very few studies have used the social model of disability to understand pathways into offending for people with learning difficulties. To the author's knowledge this is the first study to apply a quantitative analysis to the concept of disabling barriers and criminality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Medical Education 2011:: 741-747 Good examinations have a number of characteristics, including validity, reliable scores, educational impact, practicability and acceptability. Scores from the objective structured clinical examination (OSCE) are more reliable than the single long case examination, but concerns about its validity have led to modifications and the development of other models, such as the mini-clinical evaluation exercise (mini-CEX) and the objective structured long examination record (OSLER). These retain some of the characteristics of the long case, but feature repeated encounters and more structure. Nevertheless, the practical considerations and costs associated with mounting large-scale examinations remain significant. The lack of metrics handicaps progress. This paper reports a system whereby a sequential design concentrates limited resources where they are most needed in order to maintain the reliability of scores and practicability at the pass/fail interface. We analysed data pertaining to the final examination administered in 2009. In the complete final examination, candidates see eight real patients (the OSLER) and encounter 12 OSCE stations. Candidates whose performance is judged as entirely satisfactory after the first four patients and six OSCE stations are not examined further. The others - about a third of candidates - see the remaining patients and stations and are judged on the complete examination. Reliability was calculated from the scores of all candidates on the first part of the examination using generalisability theory and practicability in terms of financial resources. The functioning of the sequential system was assessed by the ability of the first part of the examination to predict the final result for the cohort. Generalisability for the OSLER was 0.63 after four patients and 0.77 after eight patients. The OSCE was less reliable (0.38 after six stations and 0.55 after 12). There was only a weak correlation between the OSLER and the OSCE. The first stage was highly predictive of the results of the second stage. Savings facilitated by the sequential design amounted to approximately GBP30 000. The overall utility of examinations involves compromise. The system described provides good perceived validity with reasonably reliable scores; a sequential design can concentrate resources where they are most needed and still allow wide sampling of tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this paper is to derive a solution to the capacity problem faced by many perinatal networks in the United Kingdom. We propose a queueing model to determine the number of cots at all care units for any desired overflow and rejection probability in a neonatal unit. The model formulation is developed, being motivated by overflow models in telecommunication systems. Exact expressions for the overflow and rejection probabilities are derived. The model is then applied to a neonatal unit of a perinatal network in the UK. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines an early work published in 1911 by economist John Maynard Keynes regarding statistics and probability. The author presents the critical reception of the work. Philosophers, such as Bertand Russell, were generally well-disposed to it but statisticians disliked it and it faded from view for several years. The paper addresses the reaction as well as Keynes' ideas and a historical overview of the state of statistics in 1909. It also connects Keynes early work in statistics with his later contributions to monetary economics.

This paper attempts to provide a conceptual framework for the analysis of counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. As an application we consider UK entry to the euro. Entry involves a long-term commitment to restrict UK nominal exchange rates and interest rates to be the same as those of the euro area. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realizations of variables of interest (e.g. UK and euro area output and prices) subject to UK entry restrictions being fully met over a given period and the alternative realizations without the restrictions. The robustness of the results can be evaluated by also conditioning on variables deemed to be invariant to UK entry, such as oil or US equity prices. Economic interdependence means that such policy evaluation must take account of international linkages and common factors that drive fluctuations across economies. In this paper this is accomplished using the Global VAR recently developed by Dees et al. (J. Appl. Econometrics, 2007, forthcoming). The paper briefly describes the GVAR which has been estimated for 25 countries and the euro area over the period 1979–2003. It reports probability estimates that output will be higher and prices lower in the UK and the euro area as a result of entry. It examines the sensitivity of these results to a variety of assumptions about when and how the UK entered and the observed global shocks and compares them with the effects of Swedish entry. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part 1 of this three-part paper discussed the genesis of the law formulated by Donald J. Urquhart on the use of scientific and technical (sci/tech) journals through interlibrary loan and central document delivery. It concentrated on the study of such use conducted by Urquhart in preparation for the establishment of the National Lending Library for Science and Technology (NLL), which became the central document delivery library of Britain. The focus of Part 1 was on the statistical and probabilistic bases of this law. In Part 2 the emphasis shifts to how Urquhart utilized probability to develop and manage the NIL's sci/tech journal collection. Urquhart based his collection development and management policies on a high-loan core of journals, causing the stability of sci/tech journal use over time to become the main theoretical issue. Part 2 analyzes the controversy over this issue between Urquhart and his successor, Maurice B. Line. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Given the absence of a common passing standard for students at UK medical schools, this paper compares independently set standards for common 'one from five' single-best-answer (multiple-choice) items used in graduation-level applied knowledge examinations and explores potential reasons for any differences. Methods A repeated cross-sectional study was conducted. Participating schools were sent a common set of graduation-level items (55 in 2013-2014; 60 in 2014-2015). Items were selected against a blueprint and subjected to a quality review process. Each school employed its own standard-setting process for the common items. The primary outcome was the passing standard for the common items by each medical school set using the Angoff or Ebel methods. Results Of 31 invited medical schools, 22 participated in 2013-2014 (71%) and 30 (97%) in 2014-2015. Schools used a mean of 49 and 53 common items in 2013-2014 and 2014-2015, respectively, representing around one-third of the items in the examinations in which they were embedded. Data from 19 (61%) and 26 (84%) schools, respectively, met the inclusion criteria for comparison of standards. There were statistically significant differences in the passing standards set by schools in both years (effect sizes ( f2): 0.041 in 2013-2014 and 0.218 in 2014-2015; both p < 0.001). The interquartile range of standards was 5.7 percentage points in 2013-2014 and 6.5 percentage points in 2014-2015. There was a positive correlation between the relative standards set by schools in the 2 years (Pearson's r = 0.57, n = 18, p = 0.014). Time allowed per item, method of standard setting and timing of examination in the curriculum did not have a statistically significant impact on standards. Conclusions Independently set standards for common single-best-answer items used in graduation-level examinations vary across UK medical schools. Further work to examine standard-setting processes in more detail is needed to help explain this variability and develop methods to reduce it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The population of refugees in the UK is expanding and will expand further given the UK Government's response to the European refugee crisis. This paper breaks new ground by undertaking a gender analysis of integration outcomes across a range of areas, namely social networks, language proficiency, health, education, employment and housing, that are highly relevant for social policy. Using the UK's only longitudinal survey on refugees, we conduct secondary data analysis to examine the factors associated with integration outcomes. We find significant gender differences in language, self-reported health, ability to budget for household expenses and access to formal social networks and quality housing, with women generally faring worse than men and some inequalities enduring or intensifying over time. We call for the recording of refugee outcomes in institutional monitoring data to enable inequalities to be identified and addressed. The findings also enable the identification of social policy areas in which a gender sensitive approach might be necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: the care of older people with dementia is often complicated by physical comorbidity and polypharmacy, but the extent and patterns of these have not been well described. This paper reports analysis of these factors within a large, cross-sectional primary care data set. Methods: data were extracted for 291,169 people aged 65 years or older registered with 314 general practices in the UK, of whom 10,258 had an electronically recorded dementia diagnosis. Differences in the number and type of 32 physical conditions and the number of repeat prescriptions in those with and without dementia were examined. Age-gender standardised rates were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) of physical comorbidity and polypharmacy. Results: people with dementia, after controlling for age and sex, had on average more physical conditions than controls (mean number of conditions 2.9 versus 2.4; P < 0.001) and were on more repeat medication (mean number of repeats 5.4 versus 4.2; P < 0.001). Those with dementia were more likely to have 5 or more physical conditions (age-sex standardised OR [sOR] 1.42, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.35-1.50; P < 0.001) and were also more likely to be on 5 or more (sOR 1.46; 95% CI 1.40-1.52; P < 0.001) or 10 or more repeat prescriptions (sOR 2.01; 95% CI 1.90-2.12; P < 0.001). Conclusions: people with dementia have a higher burden of comorbid physical disease and polypharmacy than those without dementia, even after accounting for age and sex differences. Such complex needs require an integrated response from general health professionals and multidisciplinary dementia specialists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims and objectives: The aim of this paper is to determine the influence of do not attempt cardiopulmonary resuscitation (DNACPR) orders and the Universal Form of Treatment Options (‘UFTO’: an alternative approach that contextualizes the resuscitation decision within an overall treatment plan) on nurses' decision making about a deteriorating patient. Methods: An online survey with a developing case scenario across three timeframes was used on 231 nurses from 10 National Health Service Trusts. Nurses were randomised into three groups: DNACPR, the UFTO and no‐form. Statements were pooled into four subcategories: Increasing Monitoring, Escalating Concern, Initiating Treatments and Comfort Measures. Results: Reported decisions were different across the three groups. Nurses in the DNACPR group agreed or strongly agreed to initiate fewer intense nursing interventions than the UFTO and no‐form groups (P < 0.001) overall and across subcategories of Increase Monitoring, Escalate Concern and Initiate Treatments (all P < 0.001). There was no difference between the UFTO and no‐form groups overall (P = 0.795) or in the subcategories. No difference in Comfort Measures were observed (P = 0.201) between the three groups. Conclusion: The presence of a DNACPR order appears to influence nurse decision making in a deteriorating patient vignette. Differences were not observed in the UFTO and no‐form group. The UFTO may improve the way nurses modulate their behaviours towards critically ill patients with DNACPR status. More hospitals should consider adopting an approach where the resuscitation decisions are contextualised within overall goals of care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context Medical schools are increasingly using novel tools to select applicants. The UK Clinical Aptitude Test ( UKCAT) is one such tool and measures mental abilities, attitudes and professional behaviour conducive to being a doctor using constructs likely to be less affected by socio-demographic factors than traditional measures of potential. Universities are free to use UKCAT as they see fit but three broad modalities have been observed: 'borderline', 'factor' and 'threshold'. This paper aims to provide the first longitudinal analyses assessing the impact of the different uses of UKCAT on making offers to applicants with different socio-demographic characteristics. Methods Multilevel regression was used to model the outcome of applications to UK medical schools during the period 2004-2011 (data obtained from UCAS), adjusted for sex, ethnicity, schooling, parental occupation, educational attainment, year of application and UKCAT use (borderline, factor and threshold). Results The three ways of using the UKCAT did not differ in their impact on making the selection process more equitable, other than a marked reversal for female advantage when applied in a 'threshold' manner. Our attempt to model the longitudinal impact of the use of the UKCAT in its threshold format found again the reversal of female advantage, but did not demonstrate similar statistically significant reductions of the advantages associated with White ethnicity, higher social class and selective schooling. Conclusion Our findings demonstrate attenuation of the advantage of being female but no changes in admission rates based on White ethnicity, higher social class and selective schooling. In view of this, the utility of the UKCAT as a means to widen access to medical schools among non-White and less advantaged applicants remains unproven. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early, accurate identification of ADHD would improve outcomes while avoiding unnecessary medication exposure for non-ADHD youths, but is challenging, especially in primary care. The aim of this paper is to test the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) using a nationally representative sample to develop scoring weights for clinical use. The British Child and Adolescent Mental Health Survey ( N = 18,232 youths 5-15 years old) included semi-structured interview DSM-IV diagnoses and parent-rated SDQ scores. Areas under the curve for SDQ subscales were good (0.81) to excellent (0.96) across sex and age groups. Hyperactivity/inattention scale scores of 10+ increased odds of ADHD by 21.3×. For discriminating ADHD from other diagnoses, accuracy was fair (<0.70) to good (0.88); Hyperactivity/inattention scale scores of 10+ increased odds of ADHD by 4.47×. The SDQ is free, easy to score, and provides clinically meaningful changes in odds of ADHD that can guide clinical decision-making in an evidence-based medicine framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper models low pay transitions in Britain using a bivariate probit model with endogenous selection to address the 'initial conditions' problem and parental variables as instruments. The exogeneity of the initial state is strongly rejected and results in considerable overstatement of the effects of explanatory factors. The probability of being low paid depends strongly on low pay in the previous year. Restricting attention to those who remain employees results in an overstatement of the probability of the low paid moving up the earnings distribution, but is not found to have much effect on the estimated effects of explanatory variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines fluctuations in the volume of Lotto sales and of fixed-odds betting on the Lotto draw to determine whether these two products are substitutes or complements. Lotto is a parimutual game offered by state lotteries. It is characterized by large maximum prizes and low probabilities of winning. Being a parimutual game, prizes are unknown at the time of ticket purchase and depend on the numbers chosen by all players. Fixed-odds betting removes the uncertainty about the size of prizes and offers higher expected payout ratios than the underlying parimutual game. The empirical analysis conducted showed that larger Lotto sales also lead to larger Lucky Numbers sales. It is impossible to accurately predict the effect on the Irish Lotto game if the complementary Lucky Numbers game was outlawed as sought. Based on the evidence presented in this paper, however, the Irish National Lottery would gain little additional revenue if Lucky Numbers betting were removed from the market. Consequently, there seems little reason for the British government to continue in its refusal to permit betting on the outcome of the UK National Lottery.

States started to be member of economic integrations after the Second World War to increase the efficiency of economic cooperation. Theoretically, economic integration models prioritize interests of members and especially are expected to contribute the export of that countries. Therefore, this study examines export convergence and enriches the literature that usually models income convergence. The main target of this study to reveal whether export convergence model supports the Britain Exit (BREXIT) decision in 2016. In this context, the paper analyzes European Union (EU) - 15 before and after EU agreement and EU-25 (the most extensive enlargement of EU in 2004) countries in terms of export convergence. According to results, export of United Kingdom (UK) had convergence in EU-15 countries after EU agreement. However, the 2004 enlargement of EU led to suppress the export convergence of UK. In conclusion, the export convergence model supports BREXIT decision and reveals the probability of such processes in the EU [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A recent paper published in this journal (Poole & Kuhn, 1973) has reported that ‘a relatively large family appeared to be no impediment to the educational achievements of middle-class children’. This finding, however, is based upon an analysis which fell into a relatively unknown statistical trap. Poole & Kuhn are only the latest in a long line of victims of this trap and some of their predecessors are reviewed below. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Road tunnels are associated with numerous risks including traffic accidents and fires, posing threats to individual or group users. Key risk indicators such as Risk Quantum, Individual Risk, Societal Risk, and Expected Number of Fatalities are instrumental in evaluating the level of risk exposure. These indicators empower Rights-Holders and Duty-Holders to report hazards, prevent disasters, and implement timely remedial measures. A crucial indicator, the Scenario Risk Quantum, has its roots in the forensic evaluation of responsibility in a fatal tunnel accident in the UK since 1949. The Quantum of Risk of each design scenario, reasonably selected among rational and practicable possibilities, has both a deterministic and probabilistic character. The Risk Tolerability and Acceptability criteria are modelled according to risk indicators by selecting the parameters according to ethical principles and societal policy. Scenarios are meticulously identified, described, probabilised and assigned probabilities prior to the quantitative risk analysis. These risk indicators are integral to the risk assessment process. This article delves into the understanding of these indicators within the context of Italian road tunnels, employing the Quantum Gu@larp Model to analyse Risk Acceptability and Tolerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]