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Background and aims: This study investigated the natural history of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) in rural Chinese. We sought to help provide more data to support ESCC screenings. Methods: This study was based on an existing Screening Program in Feicheng, China. Esophageal precancerous lesions were identified in 1753 cases, diagnosed from esophageal cancer screenings from 2006 to 2016. We followed up with them through endoscopic screening until October 1, 2017. Pathology results from various grades of precancerous lesions were recorded and the annual transition probabilities and incidence density of ESCC were calculated. Results: As of October 1, 2017, a total of 4055.8 person‐years has been observed. The ESCC incidence density of mild, moderate, and severe dysplasia (SD) was 0.17, 0.79, and 1.77 per 100 person‐years, respectively. The median follow‐up time of mild, moderate, and SD was 3.5, 2.3, and 2.2 years, respectively. The annual transition probability of mild, moderate, and SD to the next pathological level was 0.025, 0.038, and 0.016, respectively. The ESCC incidence density of males was 2.6 times higher than females (0.58 vs. 0.22), and the older age group (56–69 age group) had a ESCC incidence density 1.2 times higher than the younger group (40–55 age group) (0.45 vs. 0.39). Conclusions: The higher the grade of precancerous lesions, the higher the incidence density of ESCC. Screening of esophageal cancer in males and the elderly should be strengthened. It is recommended to reinforce follow‐up management for untreated patients with SD/carcinoma in situ. For patients with mild and moderate dysplasia in high‐risk rural Chinese populations, endoscopic follow‐up intervals can be appropriately adjusted to once every 2 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]