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We propose a simple method to estimate the surface displacement of earth slides. It is based on the assumptions that earth slides move by sliding along a discrete basal-slip surface and extensional structures, which commonly characterize their depletion zone, completely accommodate the occurred displacement. The proposed method is based on the reconstruction of the cross-sectional geometry of structures crossed by an arbitrary chosen longitudinal profile, aligned with the direction of the movement. Structure geometry reconstruction is completed using high-precision GPS survey and the reconstructed geometry is then used as basis to measure horizontal and vertical components of the displacement accommodated by each single extensional structure. Total horizontal and vertical earth-slide displacements are calculated as the sum of displacements accumulated at each single structure. We test the method at the Summonte earth slide in southern Italy using real-time kinematic GPS field mapping. Results from our estimation were validated considering a single displacement vector derived from the direct and indirect measurement of the position of an isolated tree located below the extensional zone of the slide. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this study is the description and the analysis of the monitoring strategies implemented within local landslide early warning systems (Lo-LEWS) operational all around the world. Relevant information on 29 Lo-LEWS have been retrieved from peer-reviewed articles published in scientific journals and proceedings of technical conferences, books, reports, and institutional web pages. The first part of the paper describes the characteristics of these early warning systems considering their different components. The main characteristics of each system are summarized using tables with the aim of providing easily accessible information for technicians, experts, and stakeholders involved in the design and operation of Lo-LEWSs. The second part of the paper describes the monitoring networks adopted within the considered systems. Monitoring strategies are classified in terms of monitored activities and methods detailing the parameters and instruments adopted. The latter are classified as a function of the type of landslide being monitored. The discussion focuses on issues relevant for early warning, including appropriateness of the measurements, redundancy of monitoring methods, data analysis, and performance. Moreover, a description of the most used monitoring parameters and instruments for issuing warnings is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document describes technical concepts and terms related to landslide risk on slopes and hillsides, from a comprehensive approach. A general methodology is presented for the risk analysis and assessment according to the threat, given by the interrelation susceptibility - probability of landslide occurrence; and the vulnerability of the exposed elements, obtained from a multifactorial analysis that considers physical and social aspects. Susceptibility is obtained considering various conditioning and triggering factors of instability and the probability of event occurrence is estimated from deterministic methods. The vulnerability analysis is done considering the spatial and temporal components of the potential events, as well as the impact that these could have on the exposed elements, in terms of social and material losses. This methodology is applied to the study of an urban slope in the city of Tijuana, Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Landslides are a type of mass wasting and denote any downslope movement of soil and rock under the influence of gravity; as such they can represent a dangerous natural hazard process, especially in case that they affect inhabited areas or transport infrastructure. Because the occurrence of landslides is typically favoured by terrain and lithological conditions, the process is frequently concentrated in relatively small, isolated regions exhibiting suitable initial conditions of terrain instability. Extensive regional assessments of landslide activity have been used in the past to uncover common triggers and process patterns, mostly in the aftermath of large, regional disasters. By contrast, however, regional reconstructions of past landslide activity have not been realized with dendrogeomorphic techniques, and with the aim to date past landslide histories over extended time periods and with annual dating precision. This study therefore aims at disentangling landslide dynamics at the regional scale (covering ca. 600 km2) by using growth-ring records of trees that grow on active landslides. The studied area of the Hostýnsko-vsetínská hornatina Mts. (Central Europe) is well known for its high landslide activity, but has so far been lacking a detailed chronology of past events. To this end, we dated past activity on 26 landslide bodies using tree-ring series from 1322 disturbed trees to reconstruct 327 landslide reactivations during the last century. The reconstructed landslide database allowed correlations between landslide types and their frequencies or occurrence, as well as inferences between selected morphometric parameters with landslide frequency and magnitude. We also observe periods of increased landslide activity (1940s, 1960s, 1980s, and 1990s) and events of regional importance (e.g., 1961, 1985, and 1997), as well as a significant decrease in landsliding during the last two decades. Highlights • Regional reconstruction of landslides activity for Outer Western Carpathians • Tree-ring based analysis of 26 landslides • Chronologies of various landslide types • Comparison of activity with the morphometry of landslides [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most regional landslide warning systems utilize empirically derived rainfall thresholds that are difficult to improve without recalibration to additional landslide events. To address this limitation, we explored the use of synthetic rainfall to generate thousands of possible storm patterns and coupled them with a physics‐based hydrology and slope stability model for various antecedent soil saturation scenarios to analyze pore water pressure and factor of safety metrics. We used these metrics to generate two‐tiered alert thresholds that can be employed to assess shallow landslide potential for any given combination of storm and antecedent wetness. When applied to the San Francisco Bay region (CA, USA), the results are consistent with events that caused widespread landsliding. Our deterministic modeling approach, which accounts for plausible ranges in soil hydraulic and mechanical properties, can inform the development of the next generation of warning systems for rainfall‐induced landsliding. Plain Language Summary: Providing accurate warning in advance of rainfall‐induced landsliding can help reduce loss of life and property but requires knowledge of hillslope wetness and future rainfall conditions to forecast when widespread landsliding is likely. However, typical landslide warning systems consider only the rainfall characteristics (e.g., rainfall amount, duration, and/or intensity) that were measured during past landslide events. These are used to define a set of rainfall conditions, or a threshold, for which landsliding should be expected within a given area. When a rainfall threshold does not perform well for subsequent landsliding events, it can be difficult to diagnose the problem because hillslope wetness is not considered. We present an approach to develop landslide thresholds that accounts for both rainfall and hillslope wetness. The results are consistent with historical and recent widespread landsliding events in our study region and, more importantly, can be related to measurable properties of hillslopes. This more direct approach could revolutionize the development of the next generation of landslide warning systems. Key Points: Thresholds for rainfall‐induced landsliding of soil‐mantled hillslopes identified with physics‐based hydrologic and slope stability modelingLibrary of modeled infiltration events based on variations in rainfall and antecedent soil saturation facilitates timely hazard assessmentDeterministic modeling approaches that account for parameter variability can inform the next generation of landslide warning systems [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work residents' social vulnerability and buildings' physical vulnerability of the Loures municipality (Portugal) were combined to locate the areas where the vulnerability is the highest, and to analyse the landslide risk. The social vulnerability of Loures was assessed using the Geographic Basis for Information Reference (BGRI) terrain units by combining sensitivity and lack of resilience based on the population and housing Census 2011 data. The physical vulnerability was assessed in a previous study based on an inquiry of a pool of European landslide experts and a sub-pool of landslide experts who know the study area. A matrix approach was used to cross the classes of the social and physical vulnerabilities. Finally, the landslide risk was analysed for each terrain unit considering the combined vulnerability, the buildings' economic value and the landslide susceptibility for a specific landslide magnitude (3-metre-deep rotational slide). Results show that 0.9% of the population reside in the area of the municipality where 75% of the future landslide should occur, and 0.8% of the buildings of the municipality--which represent a value of EUR 146,170,000--are also located in this dangerous area. This approach is reproducible: the risk analysis can be applied for another magnitude scenario in Loures, and the combined vulnerability can be assessed in any Portuguese municipality thanks to the availability of the data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many landslides were triggered by heavy rainfall from 29 June to 1 July 2017 in Ningxiang County, Hunan Province, China. A field investigation into one of the landslides, known as the Wangjiawan landslide, was undertaken on July 3, 2017, to understand the landslide mechanisms and the factors that triggered the event. The landslide is a translational and rotational slide that degraded downslope to an earth flow. It occurred on a steeply dipping mud-rich slate intercalation. Field investigation shows that the landslide had a movement rate of more than 25 m/s and had been triggered by up to 338 mm of continuous rainfall over 2 days. The landslide was fast-moving because it occurred on a steep slope and showed a rapid reduction in shear strength. The landslide resulted in nine fatalities and 19 injuries, most during initial rescue efforts. To mitigate a possible secondary landslide disaster, later emergency measures including evacuation of the survivors, setting up warning signs, and covering landslide cracks with plastic sheeting were adopted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent investigations have sought to understand the spatial-temporal distribution of landslides in Teziutlán, Puebla, a municipality historically affected by landslides. The latest initiative, under the umbrella of the ICL-IPL Project “Landslide disaster risk communication in mountain areas,” was the publication of a book of Atlas type comprising a collection of 142 maps and their corresponding explanatory texts that included a context analysis of landslide disaster risk drivers at various scales, from regional to local. This paper aims to recognise and address the necessity to further enhance the guiding principle of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction to focus on the understanding of disaster risk drivers at local level, for the determination of measures to reduce disaster risk. We present an initial contribution to promote landslide disaster risk awareness in the urban area of Teziutlán by providing to the community direct access to maps of landslide disaster risk at local scale; this is a first step towards the establishment of a robust strategy to communicate landslide risk in the long term. Effective implementation calls for decreasing vulnerability and exposure. Beyond contexts of vulnerability reflected by social, economic, cultural, political, and institutional conditions, it may be difficult to picture the spatial interactions of exposure of communities, assets, and the environment because the means of analysing spatial relationships between society and nature are not commonly available in mountain areas. Therefore, for people to better understand risk, maps of landslide susceptibility and risk exposure present a good way for the inhabitants to familiarise themselves with the spatial context of the dynamics in which they are immersed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A massive landslide was triggered on 19 May 2017 at Vishnuprayag near Joshimath, Uttarakhand, India. The landslide blocked the Rishikesh-Badrinath highway and halted traffic for about 24 h till the debris was removed and the road reopened. The Hathi Pahar hill in Vishnuprayag has been a landslide-prone zone because of the presence of loose boulders and large rock blocks on very steep slopes. The site was visited immediately after the landslide and a rapid field assessment of slope stability was carried out. The stability analysis was performed with limited geological and geotechnical data collected from field and laboratory. Based on the two-dimensional finite element analysis, it was inferred that the slope is marginally stable under static load, but fails under seismic loading. The slope could fail in future due to triggering factors such as heavy rainfall, earthquake and anthropogenic activities. This communication presents field observations and the subsequent stability analysis along with possible suggestive control measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluated the generalizability of five models to select a suitable approach for landslide susceptibility modeling in data-scarce environments. In total, 418 landslide inventories and 18 landslide conditioning factors were analyzed. Multicollinearity and factor optimization were investigated before data modeling, and two experiments were then conducted. In each experiment, five susceptibility maps were produced based on support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), weight-of-evidence (WoE), ridge regression (Rid_R), and robust regression (RR) models. The highest accuracy ( AUC = 0.85) was achieved with the SVM model when either the full or limited landslide inventories were used. Furthermore, the RF and WoE models were severely affected when less landslide samples were used for training. The other models were affected slightly when the training samples were limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide is a natural hazard that results in many economic damages and human losses every year. Numerous researchers have studied landslide susceptibility mapping (LSM), each attempting to improve the accuracy of the final outputs. However, few studies have been published on the training data selection effects on the LSM. Thus, this study assesses the training landslides random selection effects on support vector machine (SVM) accuracy, logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) models for LSM in a catchment at the Dodangeh watershed, Mazandaran province, Iran. A 160 landslide locations inventory was collected by Geological Survey of Iran for this investigation. Different methods were implemented to define the landslide locations, such as inventory reports, satellite images and field survey. Moreover, 14 landslide conditioning factors were considered in the analysis of landslide susceptibility. These factors include curvature, plan curvature, profile curvature, altitude, slope angle, slope aspect, distance to faults, distance to stream, topographic wetness index, stream power index, terrain roughness index, sediment transport index, lithology and land use. The results show that the random landslide training data selection affected the parameter estimations of the SVM, LR and ANN algorithms. The results also show that the training samples selection had an effect on the accuracy of the susceptibility model because landslide conditioning factors vary according to the geographic locations in the study area. The LR model was found to be less sensitive than the SVM and ANN models to the training samples selection. Validation results showed that SVM and LR models outperformed the ANN model for all scenarios. The average overall accuracy of LR, SVM and ANN models are 81.42%, 79.82% and 70.2%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismically-induced landslides can be detrimental to urban communities, often resulting in significant damage and repair costs, blockage of lifeline connection routes and utilities, environmental impacts, and potential for loss of life. Consistent, reliable hazard maps can assist agencies to efficiently allocate limited resources to prepare for these events. This paper presents methodology for evaluating and mapping seismically-induced landslide hazards across a large area utilizing performance-based design strategies. This approach scales site-specific seismic hazard curve analysis techniques to a regional scale evaluation by combining generally available data, including: previous landslide inventories, lidar and photogrammetric topographic data, geologic mapping, NEHRP site classifications based on shear wave velocity (VS30) measurements, and seismic hazard curves for the analysis. These maps can be combined with maps generated for other hazards (e.g., liquefaction) for a fully probabilistic, multi-hazard evaluation and risk assessment. To demonstrate the methodology, a series of landslide hazard maps showing the probabilities of exceeding different thresholds of movement (e.g., 0.1, 0.3, and 1.0 m) were generated for western Oregon. The study area contains weak, wet soils that experience land sliding regularly even without significant seismic activity. The maps show reasonable agreement with landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to compare popular statistical methods (linear, logarithmic, quadratic, power and exponential functions) with machine learning methods (multi-layer perceptron (MLP), radial base function (RBF), adaptive neural-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM)) for simulating the volume of landslides based on their surface area (VL ~ AL) in the Kurdistan province, Iran. Performances of the models were validated using some commonly error functions including the Adjusted R 2 , F-test and AIC (Akaike Information Criteria). The results showed that the power model demonstrates the best performance compared to other statistical methods whereas the ANFIS model outperforms other machine learning approaches. Furthermore, the comparative results showed that machine learning methods indicate better performances than simple statistical methods for simulating the volume of landslides in the study area. In practice, the outputs of this research can help managers and investigators decrease the cost of field surveys and measurements of volumes of landslides in landslide hazard management projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Complete landslide inventories are rarely available. The objectives of this study were to (i) elaborate the influence of incomplete landslide inventories on statistical landslide susceptibility models and to (ii) propose suitable modelling strategies that can reduce the effects of inventory-based incompleteness. In this context, we examined whether the application of a novel statistical approach, namely mixed-effects models, enables predictions that are less influenced by such inventory-based errors. The study was conducted for (i) an area located in eastern Austria and (ii) a synthetically generated data set. The applied methodology consisted of a simulation of two different inventory-based biases and an in-depth evaluation of subsequent modelling results. Inventory-based errors were simulated by gradually removing landslide data within forests and selected municipalities. The resulting differently biased inventories were introduced into logistic regression models while we considered the effects of including or excluding predictors that are directly related to the respective inventory-based bias. Mixed-effects logistic regression was used to account for variation that was due to an inventory-based incompleteness. The results show that most erroneous predictions, but highest predictive performances, were obtained from models generated with highly incomplete inventories and predictors that were able to directly describe the respective incompleteness. An exclusion of such bias-describing predictors led to systematically confounded relationships. The application of mixed-effects models proved valuable to produce predictions that were least affected by inventory-based errors. This paper highlights that the degree of inventory-based incompleteness is only one of several aspects that determine how an inventory-based bias may propagate into the final results. We propose a four-step procedure to deal with incomplete inventories in the context of statistical landslide susceptibility modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ANNEX to the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction described in the 'Preface' section of this issue is the list of participants (by organizations) in the Fourth World Landslide Forum. In this article, emphasis is put on this list of organizations as they are expected to be the key components for the Fifth World Landslide Forum 2020 in Kyoto, Japan. The participants in the Fourth World Landslide Forum 2017 adopted the 2017 Ljubljana Declaration on Landslide Risk Reduction. They further endorsed the concept of the Kyoto 2020 Commitment for Global Promotion of Understanding and Reducing Landslide Disaster Risk. The commitment aims to establish a long-term, wider, and stronger network after WLF5 2020 among three membership categories, namely, the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) full members/supporters/associates, ICL-supporting organizations (UN and international global organizations) and ICL-supporting governments, and ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015-2025. This article introduces three categories of ICL memberships and calls for participation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific literature is becoming daily more and more abundant. Scientific and professional journals as primary information sources are competing to each other to attract readership. Their position (ranking, visibility, attractiveness, prestige) in scientific community can be measured by using different journal bibliometric and scientometric parameters, journal impact factor being only one of them. Springer Nature publishes the journal Landslides: Journal of the International Consortium on Landslides since 2004. Being examined in the past by different authors from bibliometric and editorial point of view, this review on the journal's achievements confirmed the high ranking of this journal in the fields of geological and geotechnical engineering and engineering geology. Strong and weak points are discussed from the bibliometric point of view, stressing the need for higher internationality of co-authorship of published articles in order to be true international journal. Continuous publishing and the move to a monthly journal in 2018 will eventually increase journal's h-index and cited half-life of citations, but further editorial efforts should be directed to attract excellent review papers and focused technical notes to increase cites per paper. Until now, the journal Landslides is the foremost journal in the field of landslide disaster risk reduction, and the top young international journal in the field of geological engineering and engineering geology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fourth World Landslide Forum (WLF4) was held in Cankarjev dom-Cultural and Congress Centre in Ljubljana, Slovenia, from 30 May to 2 June 2017, with over 600 participants from 49 countries, 5 international organizations, and 4 United Nations organizations-scientists, engineers, researchers, students, experts, politicians, and other decision makers working in the area of landslide risk reduction. Well, over 100 of them were (post)graduate students. The WLF4 as a triennial event was a contribution of the International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) to the implementation of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. This article reports on the main WLF4 events and outcomes of the forum. Altogether, close to 400 peer-reviewed full papers, including keynote, invited, and other submitted papers, were published by Springer Nature in five volumes with a total of over 3600 pages. During the WLF4, 20 new World Centres of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction for 2017-2020, IPL Awards for Success, Varnes Medals, Best Paper Awards, and other means of recognitions were handed out to the recipients. The WLF4 participants have adopted the '2017 Ljubljana Declaration,' and drafted the 'Kyoto 2020 Commitment,' in order to stress their strong and joint commitment for the ISDR-ICL Sendai Partnerships 2015-2025 on its way towards the Fifth World Landslide Forum to be held in November 2020 in Kyoto, Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aiming at a landslide appeared during the creep deformation in the south slope of an open-pit mine， the surface morphology of the west boundary of the landslide was determined by using the on-site measurement and the INSAR technique when the east and south boundary shape were already known. Meanwhile， the underground sliding surface was determined by micro-seismic monitoring technique and the west boundary shape was determined according to the surface morphology and the underground sliding surface. Both the geological horizons in the main researching area and the bottom sliding surface of the landslide body were established by the 3D modeling technique. The west boundary shape provides a theoretical basis for the following determination of the landslide shape in the south slope. This collaborative monitoring programme can be a reference for mine slope monitoring under the similar condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Customary methods for landslide detection are labor demanding, time consuming and costly. Moreover, it becomes a real challenge to map event triggered landslides using customary techniques. Various automatic and semi-automatic techniques have been proposed for landslide detection. These techniques require extensive technical knowledge and familiarity of the selected study area for visual interpretation, suitable sampling selection, manual parameterization and the trial and error approach for selection of thresholds which makes the process irreproducible. In this context, the purpose of this study is to introduce and investigate the applicability of an automatic technique of Cosi-Corr (Co-registration of Optically Sensed Images and Correlation) for landslide identification on regional scale using high resolution orthorectified worldwies 2 images. Unlike, conventional pixel based semi-automatic methods which depends on spectral properties of pixels, this method is based on pixels shift. The correlation process was performed by using the Cosi-Corr software. The ground displacement field measured from the correlation indicates high displacement values for landslides triggered by 2010 Haiti earthquake. The method automatically identified more than 73% of co-seismic landslides at the threshold value of 3.75. The adopted procedure proposes a quick and economic way for automatic detection of coseismic landslides on regional scale if suitable pre- and post-event satellite data is available. One limitation of this method is that it does not show any unique behavioral characteristics for different types of landslides so that they could be easily distinguished or classified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to analyze landslide risk public awareness and knowledge in Mexico based on people's common understanding and perception of landsliding associated with previous events. The methodology involved the design and application of a risk perception questionnaire in the municipality of Teziutlán, Puebla, Mexico, an area that has been historically affected by mass movement processes, particularly during a rainfall induced landslide disaster event in October 1999. Sampling framework comprised two boroughs; Downtown Teziutlán (DTT, N = 65), and San Andrés neighborhood (SAN, N = 72). The former has no evidence of landslide risk, whereas the latter has been affected by landsliding. The questionnaire included the following items: (1) experience, (2) landslide risk awareness, (3) exposure, (4) preparedness, (5) responsibility, (6) response, and (7) trust. Results suggested that all the inhabitants of the sample are aware of risk of landsliding and consider the dwellings situated in the city center as the safest. The latter is consistent with a landslide susceptibility map on which hillslope material properties are reflected and lithological units of highest resistance are located beneath the city center. The need of undertaking different initiatives to achieve disaster risk reduction at community level was clearly expressed by the respondents in terms of ranking all the actions listed in the questionnaire as of high and moderate priority to improve the security of the residents. Highest accountability for actions in case of a landslide disaster was attached to the Mexican Army, as it is in charge of disaster response nationwide. Responses provided by the municipal government, health institutions and the Red Cross in DTT and by the state and municipal government along with civil protection in SAN were perceived as bad or just sufficient. High level of people's confidence to get information on landslide disaster preparedness and response from the Red Cross and scientists was also perceived in the two communities. From the outcome of the present investigation, it is possible to conclude and reinforce the argument that a better understanding on how landsliding is perceived is one of the most significant issues for enhancing landslide disaster risk awareness and knowledge and to guarantee the advance of resilient communities at individual and collective scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Daguangbao mega-landslide (China), induced by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M w = 7.9), with an area of approximately 8 km 2 , is one of the largest landslides in the world. Experts predicted that the potential risk and instability of the landslide might remain for many decades, or even longer. Monitoring the activity of such a large landslide is hence critical. Terrain Observation by Progressive Scans (TOPS) mode from the Sentinel-1 satellite provides us with up-to-date high-quality Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images over a wide ground coverage (250 × 250 km), enabling full exploitation of various InSAR applications. However, the TOPS mode introduces azimuth-dependent Doppler variations to radar signals, which requires an additional processing step especially for SAR interferometry. Sentinel-1 TOPS data have been widely applied to earthquakes, but the performance of TOPS data-based time series analysis requires further exploitation. In this study, Sentinel-1 TOPS data were employed to investigate landslide post-seismic activities for the first time. To deal with the azimuth-dependent Doppler variations, a processing chain of TOPS time series interferometry approach was developed. Since the Daguangbao landslide is as a result of the collapse of a whole mountain caused by the 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake, the existing Digital Elevation Models (DEMs, e.g. SRTM and ASTER) exhibit height differences of up to approximately 500 m. Tandem-X images acquired after the earthquake were used to generate a high resolution post-seismic DEM. The high gradient topographic errors of the SRTM DEM (i.e. the differences between the pre-seismic SRTM and the actual post-seismic elevation), together with low coherence in mountainous areas make it difficult to derive a precise DEM using the traditional InSAR processing procedure. A re-flattening iterative method was hence developed to generate a precise TanDEM-X DEM in this study. The volume of the coseismic Daguangbao landslide was estimated to be of 1.189 ± 0.110 × 10 9 m 3 by comparing the postseismic Tandem-X DEM with the preseismic SRTM DEM, which is consistent with the engineering geological survey result. The time-series results from Sentinel-1 show that some sectors of the Daguangbao landslide are still active (and displaying four sliding zones) and exhibiting a maximum displacement rate of 8 cm/year, even eight years after the Wenchuan earthquake. The good performance of TOPS in this time series analysis indicates that up-to-date high-quality TOPS data with spatiotemporal baselines offer significant potential in terms of future InSAR applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a quantitative risk analysis, performed using the rockfall risk management (RO.MA.) method, for a road affected by rockfalls. This approach allows evaluating the rockfall risk, also considering existing protection devices. Rockfall hazard and risk were assessed for an important and very busy road stretch linking Positano to Amalfi in the Campania region of southern Italy. An estimate of the rockfall return periods for assigned volume classes was obtained using the magnitude-frequency curves (MFCs) computed through the analysis of a rockfall inventory covering a time span from 1996 to 2008. For rockfall volumes of 0.1, 1.0, and 10 m, using a 2D trajectory simulating code, the involved kinetic energies and run-out distances of boulders that may hit the road were calculated. The risk, expressed as the annual probability of a fatal accident for the three rockfall hazard scenarios has been evaluated both without and with protection devices, respectively. The total final risk is given by the sum of partial risks related to the three scenarios. The analysis showed that regardless of whether there are any rockfall protection devices, the total risk remains almost constant. This is due to the wide spread of slopes protected with inadequate restraining metallic nets characterized by decreasing catching capacities, as possible rockfall magnitude increases. The individual risk is not acceptable, and some actions are requested in order to lower it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides a quantitative assessment for the hazard, the vulnerability and the risk associated to slope instability as a tool for urban planners and policy makers. Analysis methodologies and overall numerical procedures are presented in detail. In order to assess a hazard, which is expressed as a temporal probability, FOSM technique was used along with Rosenblueth's point estimate method. Reliability index (β) was used as a standard measure to compare the results assessed with other information presented in published literature for a number of geotechnical projects. Concerning the analysis of vulnerability, a new approach was proposed by combining local methodology for seismic vulnerability designed for buildings in Medellin with generic analysis methodology for vulnerability of people when exposed to landslides. The risk was assessed by a simple mathematical crossing between hazard and vulnerability. A database of 120 residential projects located on natural slopes in the city of Medellin (Colombia) was used for the analysis. The results were presented as FN charts relating the calculated frequency of landslides to the number of potential life or economic losses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work provides a multi-temporal and spatial investigation of landslide effects in the San Fratello area (Messina province within the Sicily region, Italy), by means of C-band and X-band Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) data, integrated with in situ field checks and a crack pattern survey. The Sicily region is extensively affected by hydrogeological hazards since several landslides regularly involved local areas across time. In particular, intense and catastrophic landslide phenomena have recently occurred in the San Fratello area; the last event took place in February 2010, causing large economic damage. Thus, the need for an accurate ground motions and impacts mapping and monitoring turns out to be significantly effective, in order to better identify active unstable areas and to help proper risk-mitigation measures planning. The combined use of historical and recent C-band satellites and current X-band Synthetic Aperture Radar sensors of a new generation permits spatially and temporally detection of landslide-induced motions on a local scale and to properly provide a complete multi-temporal evaluation of their effects on the area of interest. PSI ground motion rates are cross-compared with local failures and damage of involved buildings, recently recognized by in situ observations. As a result, the analysis of landslide-induced movements over almost 20 years and the validation of radar data with manufactured crack patterns, permits one to finally achieve a complete and reliable assessment in the San Fratello test site. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Logistic regression studies which assess landslide susceptibility are widely available in the literature. However, a global review of these studies to synthesise and compare the results does not exist. There are currently no guidelines for the selection of covariates to be used in logistic regression analysis, and as such, the covariates selected vary widely between studies. An inventory of significant covariates associated with landsliding produced from the full set of such studies globally would be a useful aid to the selection of covariates in future logistic regression studies. Thus, studies using logistic regression for landslide susceptibility estimation published in the literature were collated, and a database was created of the significant factors affecting the generation of landslides. The database records the paper the data were taken from, the year of publication, the approximate longitude and latitude of the study area, the trigger method (where appropriate) and the most dominant type of landslides occurring in the study area. The significant and non-significant (at the 95 % confidence level) covariates were recorded, as well as their coefficient, statistical significance and unit of measurement. The most common statistically significant covariate used in landslide logistic regression was slope, followed by aspect. The significant covariates related to landsliding varied for earthquake-induced landslides compared to rainfall-induced landslides, and between landslide type. More importantly, the full range of covariates used was identified along with their frequencies of inclusion. The analysis showed that there needs to be more clarity and consistency in the methodology for selecting covariates for logistic regression analysis and in the metrics included when presenting the results. Several recommendations for future studies were given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international journal Landslides: Journal of International Consortium on Landslides was established in April 2004. The aims of Landslides are to promote landslide science, technology, and capacity building, and to strengthen global cooperation for landslide risk reduction within the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction (ISDR). The achievements of the first 5 years from the beginning of 2004 (Vol. 1, No. 1) to the mid-2009 (Vol. 6, No. 2) were reviewed in 2009 (). This article presents the review for the second 5-year period from mid-2009 (Vol. 6, No. 3) to the end of 2013 (Vol. 10, No. 6), focusing on the journal's significance and its impact. We include an analysis of the classifications of articles in Landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ten small rock slides (with a volume ranging from 10 to 10 m) on a slope affected by working activities were detected, located, and timed using pictures collected by an automatic camera during 40 months of continuous monitoring with terrestrial SAR interferometry (TInSAR). These landslides were analyzed in detail by examining their pre-failure time series of displacement inferred from high-sampling frequency (approximately 5 min) TInSAR monitoring. In most of these cases, a typical creep behavior was observed with the displacement starting 370 to 12 h before the collapse. Additionally, an evident acceleration decrease of the displacement a few hours before the failure was observed in some rock/debris slides, thus suggesting the possibility of a mechanical feature of the slope that differs from the classical creep theory. The efficacy of the linear Fukuzono approach for the prediction of time of failure was tested by back-analyzing the ten landslides. Furthermore, a modified Fukuzono approach named average data Fukuzono (ADF) was implemented and applied to our dataset. Such an approach is able to improve forecasting effectiveness by reducing the error due to anomalies in the time series of displacement, like the acceleration decrease before failure. A prediction with a temporal accuracy of at least 2 h was obtained for all the analyzed rock/debris slides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Ancona landslide is a complex, deep-seated landslide displaying composite rotational-translational kinematisms and affecting a large urban area in the Ancona municipality on the Adriatic coast of central Italy. The landslide was reactivated with a large and destructive event on 13 December 1982 following a long period of precipitation and has remained active since. This paper focuses on the estimation of the landslide kinematics (more specifically, the horizontal and vertical components of average yearly velocity) for subsequent estimation of risk for a set of 39 buildings as presented in a companion paper. The study relies both on the processing of inclinometer and radar interferometer monitoring data through statistical procedures. Triggering factors are not investigated. Outputs from the two sets of monitoring data are compared quantitatively and qualitatively. The inherent limitations in available data are discussed. The validity of the quantitative results in the context of the risk estimation effort is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Third World Landslide Forum was held on 2-6 June 2014 at the China National Convention Center, Beijing, China. This article outlines the background and the objectives of the World Landslide Forums and reports on the organized sessions and published books for the Third World Landslide Forum. During this triennial event of ICL, World Centres of Excellence on Landslide Risk Reduction and IPL Awards for Success, Varnes Medal, Best paper awards, and others were conferred. Through the examination in the high-level panel discussion on the first day and the roundtable discussion on the final day, 2014 Beijing Declaration 'Landslide Risk Mitigation: Toward a Safer Geo-environment' was adopted. It is a document calling to join the planned Sendai partnerships 2015-2024 as a contribution to post-2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wired and wireless monitoring system installed in the Rebaixader catchment detected six debris flows and 11 debris floods between 2009 and 2012. Apart from results directly related to the processes, many experiences associated with monitoring were collected. Debris flows and debris floods showed clear differences in both the recorded data and field observations. The distinction was especially visible in the stage measurements and the ground vibration registered by the most downstream geophone. At this geophone, a positive relation between the maximum ground vibration and the volume was also observed. The triggering of most events was associated with short, high-intensity rainstorms in summer, but some were also generated in spring, when the melting of snow cover and frozen soil played an additional role. A positive correlation between the volume and both the amount and the intensity of the triggering rainfall was observed. Regarding technical aspects, a switch between a 'no-event' mode with a low sample rate and an 'event' mode with a fast sampling was particularly useful at the station that register the passing of a flow. In addition, the stations, which most recently were installed at Rebaixader, apply wireless devices because wireless techniques include multiple advantages against standard wired systems. Although recorded data or even video images provide detailed information on the debris-flow behavior, we strongly recommend periodic field surveys along the entire torrent to verify and improve the interpretation obtained from the monitoring system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Frequent occurrence of landslides in the Chinese Loess Plateau has seriously threatened the urban and rural development. Heifangtai loess platform was selected as a case study for the current research. The platform surface is being largely irrigated since 1968. About 70 landslides of different types have occurred in the region including loess slides, loess flows, combined loess, and bedrock landslides along/across bedding planes. The loess slides occurred in the unsaturated soil and have a shallow failure depth. The loess flows initiated at the contact between loess and underlying clay and can travel a distance of more than 300 m at a speed of up to 5 m/s. Controlled by the topography of the underlying clay layer, the loess flows mainly occurred along the eastern margins of Heifangtai. The combined loess and bedrock landslides along bedding planes typically travel a distance of 30-60 m at a speed of 0.002-0.005 m/s with a volume of up to several million cubic meters. This type of landslide commonly occurred along the southern margins of Heifangtai, where the slope aspects are close to the inclination direction of the bedding planes of underlying bedrocks. Monitoring of perched water table in loess layer at the northern margin of Heifangtai shows the water table is rising at a speed of about 18 cm/year. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the history, many lives have been lost due to landslides. Understanding the process of human flight during landslide events is important in assessing the risks posed by future landslides. This study proposes a model for simulating human flight from a quick shallow landslide along a road, quantifies the flight success rate, and identifies the crucial variables that impact flight efficiency. A questionnaire survey was undertaken along a stretch of highway near Yingxiu, China to collect information regarding human responses and behavior in the face of landslide events. The factors influencing human flight are classified into factors related to the evacuees, the landslide intensity, and the flight path. Subsequently, a flight model is proposed to simulate the movements of people randomly located along a road threatened by landslides. Various components of 'available time' and 'demand time' for escaping from the landslide affected area are treated as random variables. Based on this model, probability analysis is conducted to estimate the flight success rates of the people at risk when fleeing from landslides of various intensities. Sensitivity analysis shows that the pre-failure time and the response time are the most important factors in the flight process. Finally, comparison between the flight success rates from two existing methods and those from the new model is made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 12 May 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in China triggered numerous landslides. Loose landslide materials can easily evolve into deadly debris flows during wet seasons. During the period from 2008 to 2011, three separate large-scale debris flows occurred in the Pubugou Ravine near the epicentre of the earthquake that were among the largest repeated debris flows ever reported. Approximately 1.76 × 106 m3 of sediment was deposited during these three events. This paper aims to ( i) analyze the movements of solid materials during the repeated debris flows, ( ii) discuss the evolution of the initiation mechanisms of these debris flows, and ( iii) evaluate the changing depositional morphology of the debris flow fans and examine the particle sizes of the debris flow materials. To achieve the above research objectives, timely field investigations were undertaken in the past 5 years after each of these debris flow events. Satellite images were used to delineate the boundaries of the initiation areas, the transportation channels, and the deposition zones of these debris flows. With the occurrence of the repeated debris flows, the hill slope deposits gradually evolved into channel deposits and the solid materials in the channels moved toward the gully mouth. Hence, channelized flows gradually became dominant. The debris fan materials of the repeated debris flows became coarser and coarser over time. The three debris flows were all characterized by coarse boulder fronts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A decision tree approach was applied and validated for analysis of landslide susceptibility using a geographic information system (GIS). The study area was the Pyeongchang area in Gangwon Province, Korea, where many landslides occurred in 2006 and where the 2018 Winter Olympics are to be held. Spatial data, such as landslides, topography, and geology, were detected, collected, and compiled in a database using remote sensing and GIS. The 3994 recorded landslide locations were randomly split 50/50 for training and validation of the models. A decision tree model, which is a type of data-mining classification model, was applied and decision trees were constructed using the chi-squared (χ2) automatic interaction detector (CHAID) and the quick, unbiased, and efficient statistical tree (QUEST) algorithms. Also, as a reference, a frequency-ratio model was applied using the same database. The relationships between the detected landslide locations and their factors were identified and quantified by frequency-ratio and decision tree models. The relationships were used as factor ratings in the overlay analysis to create landslide susceptibility indices and maps. Then, the resulting landslide-susceptibility maps were validated using area-under-the-curve (AUC) analysis with the landslide area data that had not been used for training the model. The decision tree models using the CHAID and QUEST algorithms had accuracies of 81.56% and 80.91%, respectively, which were somewhat better than the results for the frequency-ratio model (80.15%). These results indicate that decision tree models using the CHAID and QUEST algorithms can be useful for landslide susceptibility analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The occurrence of landslides in Moa poses a serious threat to the industry, communities, socio-economic activities and the environment. The objective of this research is to assess and map the risks generated by the occurrence of landslides in the area by applying the Geographic Information Systems (GIS). For a methodological guidance, the guideline dated 2012 prepared by the National Risk Management Group was used to conduct the landslide hazard, vulnerability, risk analysis on the ground. As a result, this work produced a map indicating the overall landslide dangerousness in Moa on a 1:100 000 scale. This map is one more risk management and mitigation tool in the territorial organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK is a country with limited direct experience of natural disasters. Whilst landslide losses are not negligible and fatalities are rare, accounts are under-reported. Financial losses from landslides are poorly understood but likely to be considerably in excess of £10 million per year. As a result, a strategic management framework has evolved based upon small, low-impact events punctuated by occasional larger events or larger landslides affecting urban areas. We present an overview of the different landslide management mechanisms in the UK and discuss them in context of cases studies to explore their effectiveness. We conclude with three issues that may have implications for landslide management in the UK and other 'low-risk ' countries. Firstly, the evidence base by which landslide hazards and risks are measured is insufficient and limitations in existing information need to be better understood. Secondly, existing guidance on strategic and responsive management needs to be assessed for its fitness for purpose. Thirdly, we encourage debate about the importance of near misses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The International Consortium on Landslides (ICL) was established in 2002 and soon became an important world player in the field of landslide risk mitigation; in 2012, it has more than 50 member organizations throughout the world. As a part of the activities to celebrate ICL's tenth anniversary, a strategic document for the second decade called the ICL Strategic Plan 2012-2021 with the motto 'to create a safer geo-environment' was adopted in Kyoto in January 2012. An important part of this document was a clear dedication to broaden the scope and societal impact in a thematic, institutional, and geographic manner. Thus, thematic and regional networks for landslide risk reduction were recognized to be an important form of ICL activities in the decade to come. In this paper, one of the eight newly established thematic and regional ICL networks is presented: the ICL Landslide Monitoring and Warning Thematic Network, a joint effort of ten ICL member organizations and two ICL supporters from eight countries, five of them are active ICL World Centres of Excellence in Landslide Risk Reduction in the period 2011-2014. The general objective of this thematic network is to compare experiences in the field of landslide monitoring and existing/installed (early) warning systems for active landslides in different regions of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major scope of the study is the assessment of landslide susceptibility of Flysch areas including the Penninic Klippen in the Vienna Forest (Lower Austria) by means of Geographical Information System (GIS)-based modelling. A statistical/probabilistic method, referred to as Weights-of-Evidence (WofE), is applied in a GIS environment in order to derive quantitative spatial information on the predisposition to landslides. While previous research in this area concentrated on local geomorphological, pedological and slope stability analyses, the present study is carried out at a regional level. The results of the modelling emphasise the relevance of clay shale zones within the Flysch formations for the occurrence of landslides. Moreover, the distribution of mass movements is closely connected to the fault system and nappe boundaries. An increased frequency of landslides is observed in the proximity to drainage lines, which can change to torrential conditions after heavy rainfall. Furthermore, landslide susceptibility is enhanced on N-W facing slopes, which are exposed to the prevailing direction of wind and rainfall. Both of the latter geofactors indirectly show the major importance of the hydrological conditions, in particular, of precipitation and surface runoff, for the occurrence of mass movements in the study area. Model performance was checked with an independent validation set of landslides, which are not used in the model. An area of 15% of the susceptibility map, classified as highly susceptible, 'predicted' 40% of the landslides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a state-of-the-art wireless sensor network (WSN) of deep-earth probes (DEPs) that has been deployed to monitor an active landslide in the Western Ghats mountain range of South India. While India has one of the highest incidences of landslides and landslide-induced fatalities-primarily in the Himalayas of North India and in the Western Ghats of Central and South India-our study is perhaps the first comprehensive attempt to instrumentally detect landslides in the Western Ghats. Wireless networks have enabled us, since June 2009, to continuously monitor the deployment site in real time and from anywhere around the globe. There have been a few earlier landslide monitoring WSNs using accelerometers in Emilia Romagna Apennines, Italy; global navigation satellite system (GNSS) sensors to monitor the Hornbergl landslide, Austria; and vibrating wire stress sensors to monitor a slope in China. We improved upon these WSN systems by incorporating a variety of sensors-piezometers, dielectric moisture sensors, strain gauges, tiltmeters, a geophone, and a weather station-and installing some of these sensors as deep as 20 m below the ground surface. We present the salient aspects of the field deployment of DEPs: the selection of sensors and their incorporation in DEPs, the methodology we used in embedding these DEPs into the soil, and a few of the key aspects of the wireless sensor network. We also present a description of the deployment site and some of the results of geotechnical investigations carried out on borehole corings. Finally, we present the more interesting field data collected from the monitoring system during a rainy season in July and August 2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landslides are a hazard for humans and artificial structures. From an ecological point of view, they represent an important ecosystem disturbance, especially in tropical montane forests. Here, shallow translational landslides are a frequent natural phenomenon and one local determinant of high levels of biodiversity. In this paper, we apply weighted ensembles of advanced phenomenological models from statistics and machine learning to analyze the driving factors of natural landslides in a tropical montane forest in South Ecuador. We exclusively interpret terrain attributes, derived from a digital elevation model, as proxies to several driving factors of landslides and use them as predictors in our models which are trained on a set of five historical landslide inventories. We check the model generality by transferring them in time and use three common performance criteria (i.e. AUC, explained deviance and slope of model calibration curve) to, on the one hand, compare several state-of-the-art model approaches and on the other hand, to create weighted model ensembles. Our results suggest that it is important to consider more than one single performance criterion. Approaching our main question, we compare responses of weighted model ensembles that were trained on distinct functional units of landslides (i.e. initiation, transport and deposition zones). This way, we are able to show that it is quite possible to deduce driving factors of landslides, if the consistency between the training data and the processes is maintained. Opening the ‘black box’ of statistical models by interpreting univariate model response curves and relative importance of single predictors regarding their plausibility, we provide a means to verify this consistency. With the exception of classification tree analysis, all techniques performed comparably well in our case study while being outperformed by weighted model ensembles. Univariate response curves of models trained on distinct functional units of landslides exposed different shapes following our expectations. Our results indicate the occurrence of landslides to be mainly controlled by factors related to the general position along a slope (i.e. ridge, open slope or valley) while landslide initiation seems to be favored by small scale convexities on otherwise plain open slopes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The paper focuses on the assessment of landslide hazard and risk along or across the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) natural gas pipeline project in Albania. TAP is a natural gas pipeline that will transport gas from the Caspian Sea to Europe, crossing Northern Greece and Southern Albania. It has long been recognised that landsliding is a major factor for TAP's pipeline route selection in mountainous regions, especially the challenging area of central Albania. Experience from similar major pipelines has shown that hazard avoidance is generally the most cost- and time-efficient strategy to minimise the landslide risk since geohazard-related decision-making is usually risk-based. For landslides, the risk profile is expected to be dominated by the upslope expansion of existing landslides, resulting in a loss of ridge crest (where the Right of Way (RoW) is usually located), possibly leading to pipeline rupture. However, it is still possible that new landslides could develop under static and/or seismic conditions, especially on steep ridge flanks along the route. An expert determination approach was adopted to define a consensus for the estimate of the risk (i.e., chance of rupture) for the pipeline at eighty-two (82) identified landslide sites in Albania, to identify "hot spots" along the route, where risk-reduction measures could be prioritised. Ten landslides were characterised as "High Risk", fifteen as "Medium Risk" and nineteen as "Low Risk". Following this risk assessment, two large re-routings, as well as several local re-routings, were considered. Further investigation was required to identify the site-specific geotechnical conditions and probable remedial measures in cases where landslides could not be avoided by rerouting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors discuss the landslides triggered by the May 12, 2008 earthquake in Sichuan, China. They also mention the role of slip rate and fault type during the earthquake, debris flow resulting from sediment movement, and conduct of hazard assessment and geological recoinnaissance after the earthquake.