Search

With the global rise in populism over the last decade, there has been an increase in political commentaries (PC) by leaders that criticize their central banks and argue for lower interest rates. We analyse the effects of PCs on exchange rates, bond yields, and the risk premium for six countries that are subject to political pressures. Utilizing a specification with time‐varying parameters, we show that PCs affect the level and the volatility of exchange rates, bond yields and the risk premium in Turkey. The response increases over time. In other countries, there is a significant impact on exchange rate volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the factors influencing food inflation in Turkey, employing both endogenous and exogenous models and integrating major literature findings. Utilizing monthly data from February 2007 to November 2023, standardized for analysis, it explores the relationship between food inflation and various determinants through classical and Bayesian methods. The analysis reveals that increases in the real effective exchange rate, money supply (M1), Turkish and Federal Reserve interest rates, and the food and beverage price index contribute to rising food inflation. Conversely, higher oil prices have a statistically significant negative effect on food inflation. The most influential variables, determined by their inclusion probabilities in the model, are the money supply, Federal Reserve interest rate, real effective exchange rate, and Turkish interest rate. These findings underscore their importance in understanding and analyzing changes in Turkey's food inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interest rate was and still a point of difference between economists. This difference is based on a difference in understanding the nature of the market in which the interest rate is determined and in enumerating the influencing factors in this market. Interest rate has a role to play in the national economy, but this role differs from one country to another due to different economic and political conditions. This study sheds light on the impact of changes of the US interest rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate on the domestic interest rate in five emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, Turkey, China, and South Africa). The experimental results of the study were estimated by the dynamic least squares method and the causality test using monthly data during the period 2011-2019. The study concluded that the US interest rate has an inverse relationship with the interest rates of all sample countries included in the study at a significant level (5%). The increase in inflation and fluctuations in the exchange rate contributed to raising interest rates in the sample country. The results of causality test also indicated that the inflation rate and the exchange rate cause interest rates in Brazil, Turkey and South Africa in the long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the effects of monetary policy on key macroeconomic variables in Türkiye over the [2005, 2019] period. We employ the Factor Augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) model involving 125 macroeconomic variables, including economic activity, money supply, interest rate, exchange rate, price level, and their sub-items. We aim to provide a comprehensive and coherent picture of the effect of monetary policy on the Turkish economy compared to the standard VARs. We examine the effects of two shocks on Turkish economy: 'interbank interest rate', a proxy variable for the policy rate of the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, and 'spread', an alternative monetary policy measure which is the difference between interbank interest rate and treasury auction rate. Both of these shocks have significant effects on key macroeconomic variables in Türkiye. A positive interbank interest rate shock decreases the industrial production index, money supply, and real effective exchange rate, while increasing the short- and long-term deposit interest rates, which are largely consistent with conventional wisdom. However, following the monetary tightening, consumer inflation increases, contrary to economic theory. Thus, the price puzzle is observed. But a positive spread shock decreases the consumer inflation and the price puzzle disappears. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The highest rate of inflation was observed as countries faced increasing prices for food and energy, primarily due to supply disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. In such challenging times, interest rate-based monetary policy remains an important issue for fighting inflation. From a policy perspective, central banks all over the globe tighten their monetary policy stance to cool inflation. Arguably, Turkey opted for an ultra-lose monetary policy via very low interest rates in response to high inflation. Drawing on the Turkish experience, we tackle the evolution of the Turkish central bank's operations in the face of high inflation, providing further details on how ultra-loose monetary policy implementation can be extremely challenging in a highly inflationary economy. We extend the existing body of literature by employing the time-varying Granger causality model proposed by Shi et al. (J Time Ser Anal 39:966–987,2018; J Financ Econom 18:158–180, 2020). Using monthly data (2005:01 to 2022:01), we examine the links between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates to detect possible changes across various time horizons. The major finding of this study explores the significant episodes of causality by detecting the origination date of causality starting from 2018 toward 2021. This finding confirms that August 2018 and its repercussions on the sharp currency depreciation and high Turkish inflation are pivotal moments to understand the nature of Turkey's economic growth model and the impact of monetary policy in the ongoing economic crisis that hit Turkey harder. Our results reveal that a poorly managed country's interest rate decisions can be disastrous for the exchange rate movements and inflation dynamics, whereas the conclusion is that there are limits to what central banks can do. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The monetary transmission mechanism shows through which channels and to what extent the monetary policy implemented by the central banks affects the production level and inflation. Fundamentally, the monetary transmission mechanism, which operates through the traditional interest rate channel and includes the exchange rate, credit, asset prices and expectations channels over time, is a rather difficult and complex structure to understand. In order for central banks to implement an effective monetary policy and to determine the appropriate set of tools within the framework of this policy, it is important to understand this complex structure in the best way possible. In this study, the functioning of the channels of interest rate, credit, exchange rate and asset prices, which are among the channels of monetary transmission mechanism, and which of these channels are more effective in the period 2007:10-2022:06 in Turkey, were examined using the Diebold-Yılmaz (2012) Spillover Analysis method. Analysis findings show that the effect of the credit channel on production and the exchange rate channel on inflation is greater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the 2008 global financial crisis has radically changed monetary policies, it is seen that the Taylor Rule still has a wide place in practice. The aim of this study is to examine the reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey with the Extended Taylor Rule model for two sub-periods. In this way, it is determined how sensitive the monetary policy in Turkey has changed in the post-crisis period to which macroeconomic variables. For this purpose, monetary policy for the period 2011:04-2019:07 was modeled with the extended Taylor Rule and estimated with the linear Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method. In the analysis, it is divided into two sub-periods according to the CBRT presidents. The period between 2011:04-2016:03 represents Erdem Basci, and the period between 2016:04-2019:07 represents the Murat Cetinkaya period. The data used in the econometric analysis are the CBRT weighted average funding cost, inflation rate, industrial production index and USD/TL exchange rate. According to the impulse response analysis, the main findings are that the CBRT reacts increasingly to a shock in the exchange rate in both periods and does not react to a shock in the industrial production index. The severity of the shocks is different in the two periods. In the Cetinkaya period, the interest rate reacted more severely to the fluctuations in the exchange rate compared to the Basci period. Variance decomposition also supports this result. In the Cetinkaya period, the share of the exchange rate in the variance of the interest rate is higher. As a result, the reaction function reacts differently to different variables in both sub-periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Uncertainty about monetary policy associated with uncertainty in interest rate is an important determinant of economic decisions. Due to the dominant position of the US economy on global financial markets, in addition to countries' own uncertainties, uncertainty related to the monetary policy of the USA may have an impact on other economies. In this study, we investigated the impact of interest rate uncertainties for different maturities on industrial production, inflation, unemployment and exchange rate. We used the impulse response functions based on the vector error correction model (VECM). We also conducted the Granger causality test to analyse the causality. We examined the impact of US monetary policy uncertainty on the mentioned variables of Turkey. Our findings suggest that uncertainty in long-term interest rates increases unemployment and inflation rates. Although we find that uncertainty in interest rate reduces growth of industrial production, we do not find a causal relationship between these variables. Finally, we show that a shock related to US monetary policy uncertainty tends to increase unemployment significantly, while reducing the growth of production. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this study is to analyze the main determinants of carry trade activity for Turkey, England and the USA in the periods when global risk perception is high and low. From the results of TVAR model, we concluded that interest rate differential is the main factor behind carry trade activity in the periods when global risk perception is high and low. We found that exchange rate uncertainty is an element that leads to giving up carry trade activity in the period when global risk perception is high while it doesn't have any significant effect in the period when global risk perception is low in Turkey and England. However, we determined that investors in the USA continue to carry trade activity although exchange rate uncertainty rises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main target of this study is to estimate the determinants and their effect on incentives implemented in the electrical energy sector in Turkey. The data of the study covers 60 quarters between 2005 and 2019. While the dependent variable is investment incentives, the independent variables of the study are separated, classified, and tested under three different models. The first model includes economic variables (GDP, interest rate, exchange rate, inflation, export, and import), the second model includes production and investment variables (tariff price, industrial production index, total installed power, gross fixed capital formation), and the third model contains the demand determinant variables (production of the incentive plants, electricity gross demand, peak sudden). Moreover, the dummy variable was included in the study for the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The results of the ARDL Boundary Test showed that in the long run, GDP and Exchange Rate variables were seen to have the most significant impact on incentives, respectively, where these effects were positive in the case of GDP and negative for the Exchange Rate. These were followed by the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. It is recommended that policymakers should always consider the negative effect of the exchange rates on the incentive system in their long-term planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In economics, some transactions are conducted by the bid rate, and some are conducted by the ask rate. The spread between these two rates creates an essential cost and inefficiency for the economy. Taking these problems into account, the purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of macroeconomic and financial variables on the USD/TL exchange rate bid–ask spread for Türkiye using daily data spanning the period between 2 January 1990 and 2 August 2022. The quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) model was drawn upon to capture possible asymmetry in parameters and distinguish the results between different locations. The results obtained in this study may differ from the linear model and may change by the location, implying that the spread is reduced by the volume while it is increased by volatility and interest rates in the long run for some quantiles. Stock prices stir it in the long run, yet they decline it in the short run, indicating an asymmetry. Following the examples from the literature that analyzed the relationship via linear models, this paper employed a QARDL model for exploring location and sign asymmetry in the results for some quantiles. As the results indicate, efficiency in the bid–ask exchange rate spread can be controlled; therefore, it is our suggestion for policymakers to consider the extreme levels and asymmetry of the bid–ask exchange rate spread while evaluating its penetrating macro-financial variates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan and Turkey share the same macroeconomic fundamentals as energy dependence, double digits inflation, and tremendous currency depreciation. This paper aims at analyzing the impact that exchange rate, interest rate, and oil price have on the inflation rate in Turkey and Pakistan by using the data period of 2010:M1-2021:M12 and employing the wavelet coherence model. The results show that currency deprecation boosts inflation in both economies. Interest contribution to inflation is more significant in the case of Pakistan compared to Turkey while oil prices only increase inflation in Pakistan compared to turkey. To reduce the impact of currency depreciation on inflation in both nations, an increase in export policy can be implemented, similarly, foreign direct investment can be attracted. Additionally, both nations need to increase the inflow of funds and need to reduce the outflow of funds which will also help them stabilize the currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Efil Journal of Economic Research / Efil Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Efil Journal of Economic Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Liquidity management has an important place in the asset and liability management of banks. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate the intra-bank and macroeconomic factors that affect liquidity in 20 Turkish commercial banks. Financial data of commercial banks operating in the 2002-2022 period and macroeconomic data for the same period are taken into account. In the panel data analysis where liquidity ratios liquid asset ratio (LAR), acid-test ratio (ATR) and current ratio (CR) were taken as dependent variables, a negative relationship between liquidity ratios and deposits to liabilities ratio (DR), financial asset ratio (FAR), fixed asset ratio (FIXR), economic growth rate (gross domestic products - GDP), central bank interest rate (INT), loans to assets ratio (LR), net interest margin (NIM), non-performing loans ratio (NPL); a positive correlation with liquidity ratios and equity ratio (equities to assets ratio, CAP), inflation rate (INF), natural logarithm of asset size (TA), foreign exchange rate (XR) was found. In the study, no statistically significant relationship was found between foreign exchange liquidity ratio (FXLR) and liquidity ratios. Despite its profitabilityreducing effect, banks need to manage their liquidity sensitively and effectively in order to maintain the trust of customers and market, especially during crisis periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Management & Economics Research is the property of Journal of Management & Economics Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The exchange rate is considered one of the most important economic factors that monetary authorities seek to control in proportion to its current and its future economic activities. In this study, we investigate the interrelationship between the interest rate and exchange rate at different time horizons (overnight, 6 months and up to 1 year) in Turkey using wavelet analysis, mainly continuous wavelet, cross wavelet, and wavelet coherence, during the period from 2005 to 2019. The results indicate that the relationship in the long‐run and short‐run between exchange rate and interest rate is generally positive and this confirms the purchasing power parity theory and Keynesian approach theoretical predictions on the relationship between exchange rate and interest rate—the negative relationship in the short term is consistent with sticky price models. In terms of the causality, although there is no specified pattern for this relationship, it is evident that the behavior of the lead‐lag relationship between the variables, in the long run, is different from the short run, the exchange rate dominates in the long run. In contrast, in the short‐run, there is a bidirectional causality that varies substantially over time and virtually changes from day to day in the short‐run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this article is to examine the pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations on the domestic price level in Turkey. To this effect, the interaction between exchange rate fluctuations, producer price index, and the consumer price index was analyzed using the SVAR model. The degree of exchange rate passthrough was examined with the help of cumulative ERPT elasticities based on impulse response functions. Besides, the monetary policy interest rate variable is also included in the model to make inferences about the CBRT's policy stance against the exchange rate and price fluctuations. Study findings reveal that exchange rate pass-through is incomplete in Turkey, however, there is a high degree of pass-through of exchange rate fluctuations to producer prices than there is to consumer prices. Study results also point that the CBRT's policy interest rate is not an important determinant of the exchange rate and price levels. However, Central bank policies with stable and reliable commitments are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Marmara University Social Sciences Institute / Öneri is the property of Marmara University, Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Hacettepe University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Hacettepe Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Businesses that ensure the functioning of the economy have tried to develop various policies in the axis of the concept of sustainability on issues such as the efficient use of natural resources and the waste problem in industrial production. Within the framework of these policies, the creation of the Sustainability Index in Borsa Istanbul in 2014 contributed to the development of policies in the field of sustainability in Turkey. In this context, the aim of this study is to analyze the effect of the macroeconomic variables selected in the study on the volatility of the BIST Sustainability Index. In the study, Brent oil, the ratio of deposits opened in TL to total deposits and exchange rate variables were used. Brent oil, one of these variables, is included in the study because it is an important input for industrial production. As another variable, it has been added because the change in the ratio of deposits opened in TL to total deposits affects the investment financing costs of the shares valued in the BIST Sustainability Index. Exchange rate is included in the study because it is one of the important variables affecting foreign trade. Data were used weekly between 7.11.2014-13.8.2021. The E-GARCH model was chosen as the econometric model in the study. As a result of the study, it was seen that the Brent oil variable did not affect the BIST Sustainability Index volatility, the exchange rate variable increased the volatility of the index and the interest rate variable decreased the volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides an empirical analysis of the two macroprudential instruments, namely the reserve option mechanism and the interest rate corridor, employed by the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. A nine-variable structural vector autoregressive model for Turkey is estimated with Bayesian techniques utilising data from October 2010 to May 2018. A set of timing, zero and sign restrictions are imposed to identify the reserve requirement and the interest rate shocks through the bank lending channel. The results reveal that the new policy frame is efficient in curbing the volatility in the exchange rates and in improving the current account balance. While the reserve requirements seem to be more effective on the current account and partly on the exchange rate, the interest rate fares better in controlling the price level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are some tax security measures in the Corporate Tax Law practice in Turkey. One of these tax security institutions, "Thin Capitalization", is regulated in Article 12 of the Corporate Tax Law No. 5520. The aforementioned regulation is based on the principle that the debts borrowed by the institutions from their partners or persons related to the partners, exceeding three times the equity capital of the institution at any time during the accounting period, is not considered as a borrowing, but as a capital that has been put into the institution in disguise. According to this practice, it is not possible to consider the part of the negative exchange rate differences that arise due to the increases in foreign exchange rates, which corresponds to the thin capitalization, as an expense in the determination of corporate earnings, regarding the interests corresponding to the said borrowings, which are accepted as capital, and foreign currency borrowings. In parallel with this, the part of the positive exchange rate differences that arise as a result of the decrease in exchange rates, which corresponds to the thin capitalization, should not be taken into account as foreign exchange profit in determining the corporate income. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the foreign exchange borrowings and exchange differences obtained from partners or related parties in order to meet the financing needs of institutions within the thin capitalization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Hacettepe University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences / Hacettepe Üniversitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi is the property of Hacettepe University, Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This paper deals with the dynamic relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate using the data from the Turkish economy. Macroeconomic variables possess both asymmetric and non‐linear features; however, most of the empirical research relating to the dynamics of the exchange rate has been conducted only within a linear framework. Therefore, in this paper, a non‐linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model is used to explore asymmetrical relations in the long‐run. The pieces of evidence provided in this article show that an increase in the domestic interest rate has a more robust effect on the exchange rate compared to a decrease of the interest rate. The results further indicate that the impact of the domestic interest rate in the short‐run is different from their long‐run effects. The linear models which neglect asymmetric relation can yield misleading results by showing no relationship between the two variables in the long‐run. This paper shows that there is a robust and stable but asymmetric relationship between the interest rate and exchange rate in the long‐run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the factors affecting exchange rate fluctuations in Turkey by employing the quarterly data from 2008 to 2020. In this context, linear and nonlinear unit root tests were used to determine the stationarity levels of the variables. Then, symmetric and asymmetric causality analysis was preferred to ascertain the relationship between the variables. Symmetric causality analysis results indicated a causality relationship from the exchange rate to the long-term debt stock, from the credit default swap (CDS) to the exchange rate, and from the exchange rate to the uncertainty index. The asymmetric causality analysis showed a causality relationship from positive shocks in the short-term debt stock to negative shocks in the exchange rate. Also, it was proven that there exists a causality relationship from negative shocks in the short-term external debt stock to positive and negative shocks in the exchange rate. Another result demonstrated a causality relationship between positive shocks in the exchange rate to negative shocks in the long-term debt stock. In addition, it was found that negative shocks in net capital investment were the cause of negative shocks in the exchange rate, while it was determined that there was a causality relationship from positive shocks in the net reserves to positive shocks in the exchange rate. In conclusion, the asymmetric causality relationship from positive shocks in CDS to positive shocks in exchange rates was detected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Econder International Academic Journal is the property of Econder International Academic Journal and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Social Sciences Research / Sosyal Bilimler Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of ODU Journal of Social Sciences Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The Credit Default Swap (CDS) premium expresses the risk ratings and investment capability of the countries. Investors who can correctly estimate the CDS premium can transfer their funds to reliable countries and correct sources. In this study, it is aimed to estimate the CDS premium of Turkey by Adaptive Neural Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) method. In the study, “exchange rate”, “credit rating”, “interest rate”, “stock price”, “stock volatility” and “stock return” values were considered as input variables. All data in the study were obtained on a daily basis and covers the period of 2015-2020. As a result of the ANFIS input selection analysis, it was found that the input variables that have the greatest impact on estimating the CDS premium are “exchange rate”, “stock price” and “interest rate”. The ANFIS model was trained with the training dataset containing these input variables, and estimates were obtained for the future CDS premium values for the test data set that the model had never seen before. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that the CDS premium estimation values are quite close to the actual CDS premium values. Therefore, it can be said that the ANFIS model predicts CDS premiums in Turkey quite well. With this study, it is aimed to inform investors and policy developers about the values that CDS premiums can take in the following periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary policy is one of the instruments that policymakers use to provide both sustainable economic growth and price stability. In this study, I analyse the stock market transmission channel of the monetary policy of the Turkish economy not only at the aggregate but also at the sectoral level in a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) framework. I adopt alternative variables as a policy instrument. When the spread is used as a policy instrument, I find that contractionary monetary policy has a significant negative effect on both output and the price level, and it appreciates the Turkish Lira. Besides, the tight monetary policy reduces both aggregate and sectoral market returns. Hence, I observe that there are effective interest rate, exchange rate, and asset price channels in the Turkish economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there has been a high level of volatility in the exchange rates and interest rates in Turkey. This study analyzes the effects of these two variables on the returns of stocks in different sectors in Borsa İstanbul. Regression analysis was performed in accordance with the random effects and fixed effects models, in which 46-quarter panel data set belonging to 348 shares between 2009 and 2020 were used. The market return control variable was used in the study and the effects of industry-related characteristics on stock returns were analyzed. According to the findings, it is seen that the appreciation (depreciation) of the USDTRY exchange rate has a negative (positive) effect on companies in the banking, leasing, communication, and construction sectors. When the relationship between interest rates and returns of stocks in various sectors is analyzed, it is found that there is no significant relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of the Cukurova University Institute of Social Sciences is the property of Cukurova University Institute of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Is exchange rate volatility an important determinant of tax revenues? This study seeks, in the light of this question, empirical evidence on the relationship between volatility in exchange rates and tax revenues in the case of Turkey. Monthly data on exchange rate volatility, tax revenues, industrial production index and inflation rate for the period 2006:01-2019:12 are utilized for research purposes. The short-run and longrun dynamics between the variables are analyzed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to shed some light on the macroeconomic determinants of tax revenues, with a new perspective considering exchange rate volatility. The results of the ARDL bounds test show that volatility in the exchange rate has a negative effect on tax revenues in the long-run, but positively in the short-run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi is the property of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

By applying the model EGARCH between 2017 and 1970. Political Instability and volatility of economic indicators in Turkey were examined. As indicators of political instability; The local elections, general elections, coalition periods, referendum periods, terror lace, strikes, coups and coup attempts, annual figures and puppet variables related to exports, imports and interest-e were used. According to the findings, political instability was found to have a positive effect on the Exchange Rate and a negative effect on the GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study intends to determine the drivers of high food prices in Turkey by employing the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) model for the January 2011 and March 2021 periods. The study has used external and domestic factors such as oil prices, world food prices, interest rate, exchange rate, money supply growth rate, producer price in agricultural goods. The findings indicate that all determinants show a significant positive contribution to the explanation of food prices except oil prices. The most substantial explanatory factor of food price is the price inertia shock in food prices. Domestic factors such as producer prices, interest rate, money supply, and exchange rate have also contributed to high food prices, while oil prices and world food prices have not played any substantial role. The results are robust compared to a different SVAR model identified by Cholesky decomposition. It is inferred that both exchange rate and monetary expansion have been quite effective in variations of food price in recent years. Overall, the findings indicate that controlling the food price movements is critical to ensuring overall price stability in the Turkish economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies and how crises affect the coordination between policymakers in Turkey. This study's novelty is that a nonlinear Taylor rule indicating monetary policy response function is estimated based on the Threshold Generalized Method of Moments (Threshold GMM) methodology over the period January 2006--March 2020. The empirical findings reveal that when fiscal policy has an expansionary stage, especially in crises times, the policy interest rate does not react significantly to the inflation gap, output gap and real effective exchange rate gap in expansionary periods. On the contrary the policy interest rate gives statistically important responses to these variables during contractionary fiscal policy periods. Thus, the effectiveness of the Taylor rule appears in a period of contractionary fiscal policy. This situation gives rise to the significant policy implication that the monetary policymaker's success in controlling inflation increases with the contractionary fiscal policy. Finally, it has been observed that effective coordination between monetary and fiscal policies did not occur during crisis periods, but compatible coordination was achieved in other periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomik Yaklaşim is the property of Ekonomik Yaklasim Dernegi (Ekonomik Yaklasim Association) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study develops a simple theoretical framework and conduct a comprehensive empirical analysis on (a) the role of monetary policy on external funding and loan growth, (b) the consequent growth in national spending and finally, (c) the effects of these on the external deficit of Turkey within the period of 2002 to 2016. We argue that this was a highly unusual period with abundant global liquidity, substantial decrease in domestic real interest rates, considerable growth in capital inflow and bank lending, but a remarkable deterioration in external balance. Our empirical approach sheds light on both short and long run dynamics among key domestic and global economic indicators, those related to monetary policy, capital inflows, domestic spending, exchange rates and external deficit. Overall, while clearly validating the import dependency of the Turkish economy, our findings provide mixed evidence about the role of monetary policy on external deficit. Among the monetary policy tools tested, only the reserve requirement policy, seems to have a direct effect, however, real interest rates seem to be influential only via the channel of consumer loans and consumption expenditures. Expansions in bank lending cause corresponding increases in components of national expenditure, which subsequently contribute to the deterioration in trade deficit. As for the policy implications of our findings, to reduce external deficit, in long run, lowering the import dependency of the economy and reducing the shortfall in national savings is vital, whereas, in short run, only distortionary policies, such as limiting loan growth or restricting imports, are only feasible options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business is the property of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This research aimed to study the evolution of the inflation rate, the quantity of money supply, exchange rate, interest rate and GDP, stability test in Turkey, measuring the effect of independent variables in the dependent variable (inflation rate) The second hypothesis: there is an effect of the exchange rate on inflation in Turkey, and the third hypothesis: there is an effect of the interest rate on inflation in Turkey, and the fourth hypothesis: There is an impact of the domestic output Total on inflation in the study data were obtained using the following sources: Reports issued by the World Bank, International Monetary Fund, World Trade Organization, various international political and economic organizations, and various Arab and foreign references (letters, books, diaries, reports, etc). The results of the research: Turkey's growth rose from %2.9in 2014to %4.2in 2015. It is much higher than expected, despite the geopolitical tensions (the violence in southeastern Turkey and the refugee crisis emanating from Syria), and the low rate Inflation in Turkey from %8.85in 2014to %7.67in 2015. The relationship between inflation and the quantity of money supply in Turkey is also positive and the correlation between inflation and exchange rate is positive and the relation between inflation and the quantity of money supply in Turkey, That the positive relationship between inflation and GDP in Turkey [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the literature, there are studies which conclude that interest rates have either positive or negative effect on exchange rates during financial crises in emerging markets. These results are in accordance with the traditional or revisionist views respectively. However, in the literature, there are also researches which result in interest rates not having influence on exchange rates, signalling that there might be an alternative to these two approaches. In this study, it is investigated whether interest rates can be cause of exchange rates by taking stock market into consideration and using the data of 2001 financial crisis in Turkey. In the analysis, ARDL co‐integration, VECM and Granger causality methods are applied and it is reached that the relationship was from stock market and exchange rates to interest rates, not vice versa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Journal of Economic & Social Research is the property of Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Carry trade is a speculative financial transaction and a leveraged exchange rate position. Thus, a sudden unwinding in carry trade position leads to a sharp depreciates in the high-interest currency and to increase exchange rate volatility. It can cause global imbalances and financial crises and therefore it can ensue as a source of financial fragility and instability. In this study, we examined effects of unwinding of carry trade on financial variables in regimes when interest rate differential and TL/USD exchange rate volatility are high and low, over the period of January 2005-September 2017 in Turkey. From the results of this study, we concluded that a sudden unwinding of carry trade position led to decrease of interest rate and BİST 100 return and increase of inflation rate in regimes when interest rate differential is high and low. So-called unwinding led to depreciate Turkish Lira and decrease of BİST 100 return in regimes when exchange rate volatility is high and low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we first examine how important historical shocks during and after the 2007-2008 global financial crisis affect the size and the persistence of volatilities among exchange rates and the ten-year bond rates of the Fragile Five countries (i.e., Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey). We then investigate separately the dynamic interactions between exchange rates and the ten-year bond rates of the Fragile Five. We utilize a multivariate GARCH model (FIAPARCH-DCC model) and volatility impulse response functions to achieve these objectives. The results suggest that shocks' positive impacts on expected conditional variances of the variables are largely market-specific and different. Shocks have a more significant impact on bond markets than on foreign exchange markets. We also find that the dynamic conditional correlation series of bonds exhibit much lower correlations than those associated with exchange rate returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hot money flows refer to short-term foreign currencies entering the country's economies through short-term loans and portfolio investments. The purpose of the study is to determine the impact of hot money flows in Turkey on stock exchange index, exchange rates and interest rates. For this purpose, BIST-100 Index closing values, US dollar exchange rates and five-year Treasury bond interest rates were considered to explain hot money data. The data are in an annual frequency and the analyses were made for the period between 1989 and 2019. The structural equation model was applied in the study. The model fit index values that helped to determine the success rate of the established model was examined before passing on to the analysis. According to the model fit index values, it was determined that the model was compatible with the data. It was found that hot money has a positive effect on the stock exchange index and a negative effect on interest rates and exchange rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on the Turkish economy using a structural VAR model. Monetary policy shocks are identified based on the non-recursive structural identification scheme. Since monetary policy stance is contingent on different funding rates in the wide interest rate corridor for the selected sample period, 2011:M1-2018:M12, this paper employs "weighted average funding cost"to represent the monetary policy stance of the CBRT. The baseline identification scheme is also extended in different ways to check the robustness of the results. The empirical results can be summarized as follows. First, Turkish data are not free from price and exchange rate puzzles. More importantly, qualitative inferences are quite persistent across different identification restrictions. Second, structural impulse-responses reveal that there is a two-way simultaneous interaction between monetary policy and exchange rate. Finally, the presence of money stock in the VAR model is redundant for identifying monetary policy shocks since the VAR models with and without money stock generate almost identical results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Cankiri Karatekin University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Muhasebe ve Vergi Uygulamalari Dergisi (MUVU) / Journal of Accounting & Taxation Studies (JATS) is the property of Ankara Serbest Muhasebeci Mali Musavirler Odasi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)