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As part of the Springer Nature Content Sharing Initiative, you can publicly share full-text access to a view-only version of your paper by using thefollowing SharedIt link: https://rdcu.be/cCd8u; International audience; The study of groundwater resources using pumping test data is usually carried out with the Theis solution, which enables the hydraulic parameters of porous aquifers such as the transmissivity and storage coefficient, to be estimated from the water-level drawdown. However, the data fitting can fail and provide only an indication that the pumped aquifer has a complex structure. Here, a diagnostic plot on log-derivative drawdown is used to identify flow regimes and thus aquifer heterogeneities, leading to plausible conceptual models. Nevertheless, the diagnostic plot is insufficient and must be accompanied by further modelling because of the nonuniqueness of the drawdown log-derivative signal. The proposed approach is applied to an alluvial plain in France, known to be complex because the deposition processes change over time, resulting in channel belts limited by low-permeability deposits in the floodplain or three-dimensional (3D) interconnected structures. Six analytical models were used to simulate drawdown and its derivatives during a three-day transient pumping test. The diagnostic performed on the pumping well showed that four conceptual models, with highly contrasted hydrodynamic behaviours, may correspond to the diagnostic. The joint use of pumping-well and observation-well data allowed the only appropriate model to be identified—a dual-permeability model characterizing a multilayer aquifer. The conceptual model matched the geological observations in boreholes and corroborates the fluvial sequence stratigraphy of the alluvial plain. The pumping test used here is a tool to explore the 3D architecture of the fluvial reservoir at the scale of the depositional sequence in the floodplain.; El estudio de los recursos hídricos subterráneos a partir de los datos de los ensayos de bombeo suele realizarse con la solución de Theis, que permite estimar los parámetros hidráulicos de los acuíferos porosos, como la transmisividad y el coeficiente de almacenamiento, a partir del descenso del nivel del agua. Sin embargo, el ajuste de los datos puede no funcionar y proporcionar sólo una indicación de que el acuífero bombeado tiene una estructura compleja. En este caso, se utiliza un diagrama de diagnóstico de la depresión logarítmica derivada para identificar los regímenes de flujo y, por tanto, las heterogeneidades del acuífero, lo que conduce a modelos conceptuales plausibles. Sin embargo, el diagrama de diagnóstico es insuficiente y debe ir acompañado de una modelización adicional debido a la no unicidad de la señal log-derivada de la depresión. El enfoque propuesto se aplica a una llanura aluvial en Francia, conocida por su complejidad debido a que los procesos de deposición cambian con el tiempo, dando lugar a franjas de canales limitadas por depósitos de baja permeabilidad en la llanura de inundación o a estructuras tridimensionales (3D) interconectadas. Se utilizaron seis modelos analíticos para simular la depresión y sus derivados durante un ensayo de bombeo transitorio de tres días. El diagnóstico realizado en el pozo de bombeo mostró que pueden corresponder cuatro modelos conceptuales, con comportamientos hidrodinámicos muy contrastados. La utilización conjunta de los datos del pozo de bombeo y del pozo de observación permitió identificar el único modelo apropiado: un modelo de doble permeabilidad que caracteriza un acuífero multicapa. El modelo conceptual coincidió con las observaciones geológicas en pozos de sondeo y corrobora la estratigrafía de la secuencia fluvial de la llanura aluvial. El ensayo de bombeo utilizado aquí es una herramienta para explorar la arquitectura 3D del depósito fluvial a escala de la secuencia deposicional en la llanura aluvial.; L’étude des ressources en eau souterraine à partir de données d’essais de pompage est généralement réalisée avec la solution de Theis, qui permet d’estimer les paramètres hydrauliques des aquifères poreux, tels que la transmissivité et le coefficient d’emmagasinement, à partir du rabattement du niveau d’eau. Cependant, l’ajustement des données peut échouer et fournir seulement une indication relative à la complexité de la structure de l’aquifère sollicité par pompage. Ici, un tracé de diagnostic de la dérivé du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique est utilisé pour identifier les régimes d’écoulement et donc les hétérogénéités de l’aquifère, conduisant à des modèles conceptuels plausibles. Néanmoins, le diagnostic de puits est insuffisant et doit être accompagné d’une modélisation plus poussée en raison de la non-unicité du signal de la dérivée du rabattement selon une échelle logarithmique. L’approche proposée est appliquée à une plaine alluviale en France, connue pour être complexe car les processus de dépôt ont évolué au cours du temps, donnant lieu à des zones de chenaux limitées par des dépôts peu perméables dans la plaine d’inondation ou à des structures tridimensionnelles (3D) interconnectées. Six modèles analytiques ont été utilisés pour simuler le rabattement et ses dérivés pendant un essai de pompage transitoire de trois jours. Le diagnostic réalisé sur le puits de pompage a montré que quatre modèles conceptuels, aux comportements hydrodynamiques très contrastés, peuvent correspondre au diagnostic. L’utilisation conjointe des données des puits de pompage et des puits d’observation a permis d’identifier le seul modèle approprié - un modèle à double perméabilité caractérisant un aquifère multicouche. Le modèle conceptuel correspond aux observations géologiques dans les forages et corrobore la stratigraphie séquentielle fluviale de la plaine alluviale. L’essai de pompage utilisé ici est un outil permettant d’explorer l’architecture 3D du réservoir fluvial à l’échelle de la séquence de dépôt dans la plaine d’inondation.; O estudo dos recursos hídricos subterrâneos utilizando dados de teste de vazão é comumente resolvido por meio da equação de Theis, o que permite que os parâmetros hidráulicos dos aquíferos porosos, como a transmissividade e o coeficiente de armazenamento, possam ser estimados a partir do rebaixamento do nível d’água. Porém, o ajuste dos dados pode falhar, indicando apenas que o aquífero bombeado apresenta uma estrutura complexa. Aqui, um gráfico de diagnóstico da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento é usado para identificar o regime de fluxo e, portanto, a heterogeneidade do aquífero, levando a modelos conceituais plausíveis. Ainda assim, o gráfico de diagnóstico é insuficiente e deve ser acompanhado de mais modelos, devido ao sinal não único da derivada logarítmica do rebaixamento. A abordagem proposta foi utilizada em uma planície aluvial na França, conhecida por ser complexa, pois os processos de deposição mudam com o tempo, o que resulta em um cinturão de canais limitados por depósitos de baixa permeabilidade na planície de inundação ou por estruturas tridimensionais (3D) interconectadas. Seis modelos analíticos foram utilizados para simular o rebaixamento, e suas funções derivadas, durante um teste de bombeamento transiente de 3 dias. O diagnóstico simulado para o poço de bombeamento mostrou que quatro modelos conceituais, cada um com comportamento hidrodinâmico contrastante, podem corresponder ao diagnóstico. A junção dos dados do poço de bombeamento e dos dados de poço de observação permitiu a identificação do único modelo apropriado – um modelo de permeabilidade dual caracterizando um aquífero multicamadas. O modelo conceitual coincide com as observações da geologia dos poços e corrobora com a sequência estratigráfica fluvial da planície aluvial. O teste de bombeamento utilizado é uma ferramenta para explorar a arquitetura 3D do reservatório fluvial na escala da sequência deposicional da planície de inundação.; 利用抽水试验数据研究地下水资源通常采用 Theis 解, 它可以根据水位降深估算多孔介质含水层的水力参数, 如传导系数和蓄水系数。然而, 数据拟合可能会失败, 并且只能表明抽水含水层具有复杂的结构。在这里, 对数导数降深的诊断图用于识别流态, 从而识别含水层的异质性, 由此可形成合理的概念模型。然而, 由于降深对数导数信号的非唯一性, 仅用诊断图是不够的, 必须再建模分析。所提出的方法应用于法国众所周知复杂的冲积平原, 由于沉积过程随时间变化, 导致河岸带受到漫滩中低渗透性沉积物或三维 (3D) 互连结构的影响。在为期三天的非稳定抽水测试期间, 六个解析解模型用于模拟降深及其导数。抽水井上进行的诊断表明, 具有高度异质的水动力行为的四个概念模型可能与诊断相符。抽水井和观测井数据的联合使用可确定唯一合适的模型, 即表征多层含水层的双渗透模型。概念模型与钻孔中的地质观察相匹配, 并证实了冲积平原的河流相地层。此处使用的抽水试验是在漫滩沉积相尺度上探索冲积相储层 3D 结构的工具。

International audience; The aim of this study was to develop a conceptual model of saline intrusion within coastal karst aquifers by analyzing Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity data and to assess freshwater resources using a lumped modeling approach. In a first step, we analyzed 4 years of data (rainfall, discharge and salinity times series) ofthe Port-Miou brackish submarine spring in South France (400 km2). A conceptual model of the aquifer was then designed to differentiate a deep brackish reservoir and a shallower fresh one. Salinity variations at the spring are assumed to be controlled mainly by dilution originating from the fresh water in the shallower reservoir. In a second step, a lumped modeling approach was developed based on the conceptual model to simulate discharge as well as salinity over time. We proposed a reservoir-model to take into account slow and fast components in the shallower part of the aquifer and a saline intrusion in the deeper one. This Rainfall–Discharge–Salinity model was calibrated and validated for two periods of 1.5 years at a daily time step and was also tested to reproduce a multi-annual evolution of the available discharge and salinity time series. Good simulation results were obtained to reproduce water and mass budgets as well as discharge and salinity dynamics during several hydrological cycles. The simultaneous modeling of hydrodynamics and quality data showed the robustness of the model in addition to its easy implementation. Our results led us to propose a new type of seawater mixing mechanism for brackish springs: the dilution type, in addition to the well-known Ventury suction and Head balance types. The application of the lumped model on the Port-Miou brackish spring validated the hydrogeological processes deduced from experimental data, given an initial quantification of the freshwater resources available in such complex brackish karstic aquifers.

Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions that may be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11%, underpinning the accurateness of the approach.