Search

Objectives: The UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) developed using 30-year (1977-2007) data from the UKPDS is widely used for health outcomes' projections and economic evaluations of therapies for patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, its reliability for contemporary UK T2D populations is unclear. We assessed the performance of version 2 of the model (UKPDS-OM2) using data from A Study of Cardiovascular Events in Diabetes (ASCEND), which followed participants with diabetes in the UK between 2005 and 2017.Methods: The UKPDS-OM2 was used to predict the occurrence of myocardial infarction (MI), other ischemic heart disease, stroke, cardiovascular (CV) death, and other death among the 14 569 participants with T2D in ASCEND, all without previous CV disease at study entry. Calibration (comparison of predicted and observed year-on-year cumulative incidence over 10 years) and discrimination (c-statistics) of the model were assessed for each endpoint. The percentage error in event rates at year 7 (mean duration of follow up) was used to quantify model bias.Results: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted MI, stroke, CV death, and other death over the 10-year follow-up period (by 149%, 42%, 269%, and 52%, respectively, at year 7). Discrimination of the model for MI and other ischemic heart disease (c-statistics 0.58 and 0.60, respectively) was poorer than that for other outcomes (c-statistics ranging from 0.66 to 0.72).Conclusions: The UKPDS-OM2 substantially overpredicted risks of key CV outcomes and death in people with T2D in ASCEND. Appropriate adjustments or a new model may be required for assessments of long-term effects of treatments in contemporary T2D cohorts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Prospective studies have shown differences in some disease risks between vegetarians and nonvegetarians, but the potential biological pathways are not well understood.Objectives: We aimed to assess differences in concentrations of biomarkers related to disease pathways in people with varying degrees of animal foods exclusion.Methods: The UK Biobank recruited 500,000 participants aged 40-69 y (54.4% women) throughout the United Kingdom in 2006-2010. Blood and urine were collected at recruitment and assayed for more than 30 biomarkers related to cardiovascular diseases, bone and joint health, cancer, diabetes, renal disease, and liver health. In cross-sectional analyses, we estimated adjusted geometric means of these biomarkers by 6 diet groups (regular meat eaters, low meat eaters, poultry eaters, fish eaters, vegetarians, vegans) in 466,058 white British participants and 2 diet groups (meat eaters, vegetarians) in 5535 British Indian participants.Results: We observed differences in the concentrations of most biomarkers, with many biomarkers showing a gradient effect from meat eaters to vegetarians/vegans. Of the largest differences, compared with white British regular meat eaters, white British vegans had lower C-reactive protein [adjusted geometric mean (95% CI): 1.13 (1.03, 1.25) compared with 1.43 (1.42, 1.43) mg/L], lower low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [3.13 (3.07, 3.20) compared with 3.65 (3.65, 3.65) mmol/L], lower vitamin D [34.4 (33.1, 35.9) compared with 44.5 (44.4, 44.5) nmol/L], lower serum urea [4.21 (4.11, 4.30) compared with 5.36 (5.36, 5.37) mmol/L], lower urinary creatinine [5440 (5120, 5770) compared with 7280 (7260, 7300) μmol/L], and lower γ-glutamyltransferase [23.5 (22.2, 24.8) compared with 29.6 (29.6, 29.7) U/L]. Patterns were mostly similar in British Indians, and results were consistent between women and men.Conclusions: The observed differences in biomarker concentrations, including lower C-reactive protein, lower LDL cholesterol, lower vitamin D, lower creatinine, and lower γ-glutamyltransferase, in vegetarians and vegans may relate to differences in future disease risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The causal nature of the observed associations between serum lipids and apolipoproteins and kidney function are unclear.Methods: Using two-sample and multivariable Mendelian randomization (MR), we examined the causal effects of serum lipids and apolipoproteins on kidney function, indicated by the glomerular-filtration rate estimated using creatinine (eGFRcrea) or cystatin C (eGFRcys) and the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR). We obtained lipid- and apolipoprotein-associated genetic variants from the Global Lipids Genetics Consortium (n = 331 368) and UK Biobank (n = 441 016), respectively, and kidney-function markers from the Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT; n = 69 736) and UK Biobank (n = 464 207). The reverse causal direction was examined using variants associated with kidney-function markers selected from recent genome-wide association studies.Results: There were no strong associations between genetically predicted lipid and apolipoprotein levels with kidney-function markers. Some, but inconsistent, evidence suggested a weak association of higher genetically predicted atherogenic lipid levels [indicated by low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), triglycerides and apolipoprotein B] with increased eGFR and UACR. For high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), results differed between eGFRcrea and eGFRcys, but neither analysis suggested substantial effects. We found no clear evidence of a reverse causal effect of eGFR on lipid or apolipoprotein traits, but higher UACR was associated with higher LDL-C, triglyceride and apolipoprotein B levels.Conclusion: Our MR estimates suggest that serum lipid and apolipoprotein levels do not cause substantial changes in kidney function. A possible weak effect of higher atherogenic lipids on increased eGFR and UACR warrants further investigation. Processes leading to higher UACR may lead to more atherogenic lipid levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a leading cause of vision loss. Whereas lipids have been studied extensively to understand their effects on cardiovascular diseases, their relationship with AMD remains unclear.Methods: Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses were performed to systematically evaluate the causal relationships between eight serum lipid biomarkers, consisting of apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB), total cholesterol (CHOL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), direct low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), lipoprotein A [Lp(a)], triglycerides (TG) and non-HDL cholesterol (non-HDL-C), and the risk of different AMD stages and subtypes. We derived 64-407 genetic instruments for eight serum lipid biomarkers in 419 649 participants of European descent from the UK Biobank cohort. We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) for 12 711 advanced AMD cases [8544 choroidal neovascularization (CNV) and 2656 geographic atrophy (GA) specific AMD subtypes] and 5336 intermediate AMD cases with 14 590 controls of European descent from the International AMD Genomics Consortium.Results: Higher genetically predicted HDL-C and ApoA1 levels increased the risk of all AMD subtypes. LDL-C, ApoB, CHOL and non-HDL-C levels were associated with decreased risk of intermediate and GA AMD but not with CNV. Genetically predicted TG levels were associated with decreased risk of different AMD subtypes. Sensitivity analyses revealed no evidence for directional pleiotropy effects. In our multivariable MR analyses, adjusting for the effects of correlated lipid biomarkers yielded similar results.Conclusion: These results suggest the role of lipid metabolism in drusen formation and particularly in AMD development at the early and intermediate stages. Mechanistic studies are warranted to investigate the utility of lipid pathways for therapeutic treatment in preventing AMD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We applied principles for conducting economic evaluations of factorial trials to a trial-based economic evaluation of a cluster-randomized 2 × 2 × 2 factorial trial. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of atorvastatin, omega-3 fish oil, and an action-planning leaflet, alone and in combination, from a UK National Health Service perspective.Methods: The Atorvastatin in Factorial With Omega EE90 Risk Reduction in Diabetes (AFORRD) Trial randomized 800 patients with type 2 diabetes to atorvastatin, omega-3, or their respective placebos and randomized general practices to receive a leaflet-based action-planning intervention designed to improve compliance or standard care. The trial was conducted at 59 UK general practices. Sixteen-week outcomes for each trial participant were extrapolated for 70 years using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model v2.01. We analyzed the trial as a 2 × 2 factorial trial (ignoring interactions between action-planning leaflet and medication), as a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial trial (considering all interactions), and ignoring all interactions.Results: We observed several qualitative interactions for costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) that changed treatment rankings. However, different approaches to analyzing the factorial design did not change the conclusions. There was a ≥99% chance that atorvastatin is cost-effective and omega-3 is not, at a £20 000/QALY threshold.Conclusions: Atorvastatin monotherapy was the most cost-effective combination of the 3 trial interventions at a £20 000/QALY threshold. Omega-3 fish oil was not cost-effective, while there was insufficient evidence to draw firm conclusions about action planning. Recently-developed methods for analyzing factorial trials and combining parameter and sampling uncertainty were extended to estimate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves within a 2x2x2 factorial design with model-based extrapolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine the association between age at period cessation and trajectories of anthropometry, blood pressure, lipids and glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) from midlife to age 69 years.Methods: We used data from the UK Medical Research Council National Survey of Health and Development to examine the association between age at period cessation and trajectories of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) from 36 to 69 years and trajectories of triglyceride, low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and HbA1c from 53 to 69 years.Results: We found no evidence that age at period cessation was associated with trajectories of log triglyceride, LDL-C and HDL-C from 53 to 69 years and trajectories of SBP or DBP from 36 to 69 years, regardless of whether period cessation occurred naturally or due to hysterectomy. While we found some evidence of associations of age at period cessation with log BMI, log WC and log HbA1c, patterns were not consistent and differences were small at age 69 years, with confidence intervals that spanned the null value.Conclusion: How and when women experience period cessation is unlikely to adversely affect conventional cardiovascular risk factors across mid and later life. Women and clinicians concerned about the impact of type and timing of period cessation on conventional cardiovascular intermediates from midlife should be reassured that the impact over the long term is small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Cardiometabolic benefits of the Mediterranean diet have been recognized, but underlying mechanisms are not fully understood.Objectives: We aimed to investigate how the Mediterranean diet could influence circulating metabolites and how the metabolites could mediate the associations of the diet with cardiometabolic risk factors.Methods: Among 10,806 participants (58.9% women, mean age = 48.4 y) in the Fenland Study (2004-2015) in the United Kingdom, we assessed dietary consumption with FFQs and conducted a targeted metabolomics assay for 175 plasma metabolites (acylcarnitines, amines, sphingolipids, and phospholipids). We examined cross-sectional associations of the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) and its major components with each metabolite, modeling multivariable-adjusted linear regression. We used the regression estimates to summarize metabolites associated with the MDS into a metabolite score as a marker of the diet. Subsequently, we assessed how much metabolite subclasses and the metabolite score would mediate the associations of the MDS with circulating lipids, homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), and other metabolic factors by comparing regression estimates upon adjustment for the metabolites.Results: Sixty-six metabolites were significantly associated with the MDS (P ≤ 0.003, corrected for false discovery rate) (Spearman correlations, r: -0.28 to +0.28). The metabolite score was moderately correlated with the MDS (r = 0.43). Of MDS components, consumption of nuts, cereals, and meats contributed to variations in acylcarnitines; fruits, to amino acids and amines; and fish, to phospholipids. The metabolite score was estimated to explain 37.2% of the inverse association of the MDS with HOMA-IR (P for mediation < 0.05). The associations of the MDS with cardiometabolic factors were estimated to be mediated by acylcarnitines, sphingolipids, and phospholipids.Conclusions: Multiple metabolites relate to the Mediterranean diet in a healthy general British population and highlight the potential to identify a set of biomarkers for an overall diet. The associations may involve pathways of phospholipid metabolism, carnitine metabolism, and development of insulin resistance and dyslipidemia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]