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Concerns about the effects of global warming on crop yields have been raised due to stagnating yield progress in recent years. However, an understanding of the effects of changes in temperature and rainfall throughout the crop cycle on historical yield progress is lacking in Europe (EU). In this study, positive wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress in the EU (1961–2019) was significant, with rates of 0.05, 0.04, 0.05, and 0.07 Tha−1year−1, for the four crops respectively. Much of this progress has been sustained by Eastern European countries (EE), which had the highest yield progress rates. On average, in the case of wheat and barley, a temperature increase of 1°C in the winter resulted in yields increasing by +0.33 Tha−1 in EE. This was potentially due to decreasing cold damage and improved photosynthesis and vegetative growth, supporting positive yield progress. Recent historical (2001–2019) rates of wheat, barley, rice, and maize yield progress were positive in all EU regions except Western Europe (WE), barley in Southern Europe (SE) and wheat in Northern Europe (NE). Stagnated wheat, barley and rice yields in WE were not explained by temperature or rainfall using direct correlations of observed data. However, May and July temperatures were associated with wheat yields in NE (−0.30 Tha−1°C−1), barley in SE (−0.14 Tha−1°C−1) and maize in WE and SE (−0.42 and −0.39 Tha−1°C−1). With increasing temperatures becoming less than optimal for photosynthesis, reducing grain filling duration and increasing drought episodes, crop yields have stagnated for wheat in NE and barley in SE. With consistent increases in temperature and water evaporative demand expected in the future, the interplay among genetic adaptation, increased crop cycle duration, drought tolerance, sowing dates, smart irrigation and sustainable practices may require thorough regional testing to maximise the yields of wheat, barley and maize in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is anticipated to affect European agriculture, including the risk of emerging or re-emerging feed and food hazards. Indirectly, climate change may influence such hazards (e.g. the occurrence of mycotoxins) due to geographic shifts in the distribution of major cereal cropping systems and the consequences this may have for crop rotations. This paper analyses the impact of climate on cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat on a 50-km square grid across Europe (45–65°N) and provides model-based estimates of the changes in cropping shares in response to changes in temperature and precipitation as projected for the time period around 2040 by two regional climate models (RCM) with a moderate and a strong climate change signal, respectively. The projected cropping shares are based on the output from the two RCMs and on algorithms derived for the relation between meteorological data and observed cropping shares of maize, oat and wheat. The observed cropping shares show a south-to-north gradient, where maize had its maximum at 45–55°N, oat had its maximum at 55–65°N, and wheat was more evenly distributed along the latitudes in Europe. Under the projected climate changes, there was a general increase in maize cropping shares, whereas for oat no areas showed distinct increases. For wheat, the projected changes indicated a tendency towards higher cropping shares in the northern parts and lower cropping shares in the southern parts of the study area. The present modelling approach represents a simplification of factors determining the distribution of cereal crops, and also some uncertainties in the data basis were apparent. A promising way of future model improvement could be through a systematic analysis and inclusion of other variables, such as key soil properties and socio-economic conditions, influencing the comparative advantages of specific crops. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]