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This study identifies a new triggering mechanism of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) from the Southern Hemisphere. This mechanism is independent from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and tends to induce the IOD before its canonical peak season. The joint effects of this mechanism and ENSO may explain different lifetimes and strengths of the IOD. During its positive phase, development of sea surface temperature cold anomalies commences in the southern Indian Ocean, accompanied by an anomalous subtropical high system and anomalous southeasterly winds. The eastward movement of these anomalies enhances the monsoon off Sumatra‐Java during May–August, leading to an early positive IOD onset. The pressure variability in the subtropical area is related with the Southern Annular Mode, suggesting a teleconnection between high‐latitude and midlatitude climate that can further affect the tropics. To include the subtropical signals may help model prediction of the IOD event. Plain Language Summary: An Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) at its positive phase featuring anomalously high and low sea surface temperature (SST) in the west and east equatorial Indian Ocean, respectively, shifts atmosphere convection westward, causing severe floods and droughts in surrounding west and east Indian Ocean‐rim regions. Known triggering mechanisms, such as the external El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), cannot explain development or intensity of many IOD events. Here we find a novel triggering mechanism of the IOD from the Southern Hemisphere, in which the subtropical high pressure and wind anomalies forcing cool SST anomalies evolve to trigger onset of an IOD event via enhancing the monsoon off Sumatra‐Java. This Southern Hemisphere Mechanism can operate independently from the ENSO and commences earlier than the ENSO forcing, thus providing explanation of different IOD characteristics and a longer prediction lead time. Key Points: A triggering mechanism of the IOD originated from the Southern Hemisphere is identifiedThe Southern Hemisphere Mechanism is independent from ENSO and associated with subtropical and high‐latitude climatic variabilityThe joint effects of such mechanism and ENSO produce different characteristics of the IOD [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) persists into post-ENSO September over the South China Sea (SCS), the longest correlation in the World Ocean. Slow modulations of this correlation are analyzed by using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Dataset (ICOADS). ENSO's influence on SCS SST has experienced significant interdecadal changes over the past 138 years (1870-2007), with a double-peak structure correlation after the 1960s compared to a single-peak before the 1940s. According to the ENSO correlation character, the analysis period is divided into four epochs. In epoch 3, 1960-83, the SST warming and enhanced precipitation over the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean, rather than the Indian Ocean basinwide warming, induce easterly wind anomalies and warm up the SCS in the summer following El Niño. Besides the Indian Ocean effect, during epochs 2 (1930-40) and 4 (1984-2007), the Pacific-Japan (PJ) pattern of atmospheric circulation anomalies helps sustain the SCS SST warming through summer (June-August) with easterly wind anomalies. The associated increase in shortwave radiation and decrease in upward latent heat flux cause the SCS SST warming to persist into the summer. Meanwhile, the rainfall response around the SCS to ENSO shows interdecadal variability, with stronger variability after the 1980s. The results suggest that both the remote forcing from the tropical Indian Ocean and the PJ pattern are important for the ENSO teleconnection to the SCS and its interdecadal modulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the simulation of the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode and relevant physical processes in models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Historical runs from 20 CMIP5 models are available for the analysis. They reproduce the IOB mode and its close relationship to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Half of the models capture key IOB processes: a downwelling oceanic Rossby wave in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) precedes the IOB development in boreal fall and triggers an antisymmetric wind anomaly pattern across the equator in the following spring. The anomalous wind pattern induces a second warming in the north Indian Ocean (NIO) through summer and sustains anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northwest Pacific by radiating a warm tropospheric Kelvin wave. The second warming in the NIO is indicative of ocean-atmosphere interaction in the interior TIO. More than half of the models display a double peak in NIO warming, as observed following El Niño, while the rest show only one winter peak. The intermodel diversity in the characteristics of the IOB mode seems related to the thermocline adjustment in the south TIO to ENSO-induced wind variations. Almost all the models show multidecadal variations in IOB variance, possibly modulated by ENSO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The tropical Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode (IOD) is phase locked with the austral winter and spring seasons. This study describes three types of the IOD in terms of their peak time and duration. In particular, the authors focus on a new type that develops in May-June and matures in July-August, which is distinctively different from the canonical IOD, which may develop later and peak in September-November or persist from June to November. Such 'unseasonable' IOD events are only observed since the mid-1970s, a period after which the tropical Indian Ocean has a closer relationship with the Pacific Ocean. The unseasonable IOD is an intrinsic mode of the Indian Ocean and occurs without an ensuing El Niño. A change in winds along the equator is identified as a major forcing. The wind change is in turn related to a weakening Walker circulation in the Indian Ocean sector in austral winter, which is in part forced by the rapid Indian Ocean warming. Thus, although the occurrence of the unseasonable IOD may be partially influenced by oceanic variability, the authors' results suggest an influence from the Indian Ocean warming. This suggestion, however, awaits further investigation using fully coupled climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]