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Climate change is one of the most significant challenges worldwide in the Anthropocene, and it is predicted to importantly affect biological diversity, especially in freshwaters. Freshwater fishes are facing considerable global threats, particularly in eco-sensitive semi-arid to arid areas such as the Arabian Peninsula, which is considered a highly stressed region in the Middle East. Endemic species are believed to display a narrow range of traits, with rarity reflecting adaptation to specific environmental regimes, and they are thus highly sensitive to environmental disturbances. This study is the first attempt to map the occurrence of endemic freshwater fish species and predict the impact of climate change on their spatial range in the semi-arid area of the Arabian Peninsula using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM). We compared the present and future (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) climate niche for the species under various climatic scenarios. All global circulation models (GCMs) performed well in predicting the species' climatic niche (AUC ranging between 0.72 and 0.92). For certain species (Cyprinion acinaces, Garra buettikeri, Carasobarbus exulatus, Arabibarbus arabicus, and Cyprinion mhalense), variables associated with precipitation were more important than those related to temperature, while for others (Carasobarbus apoensis, G. sahilia, G tibanica, and Aphaniops kruppi), temperature-related variables were most important. Precipitation in the coldest quarter and in the driest quarter was the most sensitive variable for the predictions. The species showed distinct responses to climate change; seven were predicted to lose their climatically suitable habitats (losers) and are thus threatened and highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, while two species were predicted to expand their range (winners). Regular monitoring of fish in the Arabian Peninsula is recommended to conserve endemic species and their ecosystems., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Hamid Reza Esmaeili reports a relationship with Shiraz University that includes: employment. If there are other authors, they declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

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Land‐use change is considered the greatest threat to nature, having caused worldwide declines in the abundance, diversity, and health of species and ecosystems. Despite increasing research on this global change driver, there are still challenges to forming an effective synthesis. The estimated impact of land‐use change on biodiversity can depend on location, research methods, and taxonomic focus, with recent global meta‐analyses reaching disparate conclusions. Here, we critically appraise this research body and our ability to reach a reliable consensus. We employ named entity recognition to analyze more than 4000 abstracts, alongside full reading of 100 randomly selected papers. We highlight the broad range of study designs and methodologies used; the most common being local space‐for‐time comparisons that classify land use in situ. Species metrics including abundance, distribution, and diversity were measured more frequently than complex responses such as demography, vital rates, and behavior. We identified taxonomic biases, with vertebrates well represented while detritivores were largely missing. Omitting this group may hinder our understanding of how land‐use change affects ecosystem feedback. Research was heavily biased toward temperate forested biomes in North America and Europe, with warmer regions being acutely underrepresented despite offering potential insights into the future effects of land‐use change under novel climates. Various land‐use histories were covered, although more research in understudied regions including Africa and the Middle East is required to capture regional differences in the form of current and historical land‐use practices. Failure to address these challenges will impede our global understanding of land‐use change impacts on biodiversity, limit the reliability of future projections and have repercussions for the conservation of threatened species. Beyond identifying literature biases, we highlight the research priorities and data gaps that need urgent attention and offer perspectives on how to move forward. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under the pressure of global carbon neutrality, it is necessary to study the characteristics of carbon emissions and the trend of "carbon peaking" in countries along the "Belt and Road." Because most of these countries have not yet reached their peak carbon emissions, they still have great potential for growth, and peak carbon emissions are a prerequisite for carbon neutrality. This paper divides the countries along the Belt and Road into 9 country groups according to the level of economic development and industrial structure. Based on the carbon emission panel data of countries along the "Belt and Road" from 1970 to 2018 and environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) theory, a panel model was established for each country group for research. This paper analyzes the characteristics of carbon emissions and the trend of "carbon peaking" in these countries and analyzes the economic growth and carbon emissions in combination with the Tapio decoupling model. The decoupling relationship changes on the time scale as a supplement. The results show that in the study area, some countries have completely passed the "carbon peak." The reasons for this are as follows: first, the carbon peak is achieved through industrial upgrading; second, the "carbon peak" is caused by the drastic changes in Eastern Europe and the disintegration of the Soviet Union and deindustrialization; and third, the carbon peak is caused by poverty and population growth. Most of the remaining countries have not yet achieved the carbon peak. Among them, some countries represented by the Middle East are highly coupled with their economic development and carbon emissions. Middle-income and high-industrial-dependence countries are in the transitional period in terms of the carbon peak. Low-income and medium- and high-industrial-dependence countries are currently still in the stage of barbaric development. From the research on the decoupling situation, the relationship between the economic growth of countries along the "Belt and Road" and their carbon emissions has been improving in recent decades, and it is expected that a more ideal state of decoupling will be achieved in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change has become a global challenge due to its critical impact on the natural as well as the human environment. This article focuses on the effects of climate change in the Middle East (ME) region and the strategies suggested to combat its impacts. The research involves reviewing and analyzing published articles from major databases in this domain. The literature shows that countries in the ME region, with a particular focus on the Arab countries, have also realized that urgent actions should be taken to decrease climate change threats. Several countries are committing to international principles, supporting the global effort against climate change, such as adopting renewable sources for efficient energy production. Moreover, some of the ME region countries are considered a hub for emitting CO2 because of their hot climate, which requires the use of energy for air-conditioning, highwater desalination demands due to water scarcity, and the dependence on energy-exhaustive industries. Recently, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates have proposed strict measures to reduce their energy consumption and move towards renewable energy sources like solar and wind energy. Some countries have also funded projects for developing green buildings to create a sustainable environment. However, this paper emphasizes the need to establish strict regulations to impose policies and practices to achieve the global temperature rise limit below 1.5oC. Moreover, all ME countries must invest in renewable energy sources by promoting education, research, and implementing carbon pricing mechanisms. Nevertheless, as part of the Paris Agreement and other international commitments, there is a growing need to develop more socioeconomic policies to meet this vision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an extensive vertical and longitudinal description of the biogeochemistry in the whole Mediterranean Sea during the summer 2008. During this strong stratified period, the distribution of nutrients, particulate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), nitrogen (DON) and phosphorus (DOP) were investigated along a 3000km transect (BOUM cruise) crossing the Western and Eastern Mediterranean basins. The partitioning of chemical C, N and P species among all these mineral and organic pools has been analysed to produce a detailed spatial and vertical extended examination of the elemental stoichiometry. Surface Mediterranean waters were depleted in nutrients and the thickness of this depleted layer increased towards the East from about 10m in the Gulf of Lion to more than 100m in the Levantine basin, concomitantly to the gradual deepening of the thermocline and nutriclines. We used threshold in oxygen concentration to discriminate the water column in three layers; surface (Biogenic Layer BL), intermediate (Mineralization Layer ML), and deep layer (DL) and to propose a schematic representation of biogeochemical fluxes between the different compartments and to compare the functioning of the two basins. The stoichiometry revealed a clear longitudinal and vertical gradient in the mineral fraction with a P-depletion evidenced on both dimension. As a consequence of the severe deficiency in phosphorus, the C:N:P ratios in all pools within the BL largely exceed the Redfield ratios. Despite these gradients, the deep estimated fluxes in the mineral compartment tend towards the canonical Redfield values in both basins. A change in particulate matter composition has been evidenced by a C increase relative to N and P along the whole water column in the western basin and between BL and ML in the eastern one. More surprisingly, a decrease in N relative to P with depth was encountered in the whole Mediterranean Sea. We suggest that there was a more rapid recycling of N than P in intermediate waters (below BL) and a complete use of DOP in surface waters. DOC accumulated in surface waters according to the oligotrophic status but this was not the case for nitrogen nor phosphorus. Our data clearly showed a noticeable stability of the DOC:DON ratio (12-13) in the whole Mediterranean Sea, contradicting the fact that N is recycled faster than C in the DOM but in agreement with a P limitation of bacterial activity. Finally, comparisons between these elemental distributions and ratios along the West-East Mediterranean gradient of trophic status provide new insights for 5 identifying and understanding fundamental interactions between marine biogeochemistry and ecosystems, which will help to predict the impacts of environmental climate changes on the Mediterranean marine ecosystems. Indeed, the outflowing through the various Mediterranean straits have been shown to be changing, the functioning of the BL ecosystem could be impacted, not only by changes in nutrients surface sources but also by changes in deep nutrients one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the national environmental agenda of Arab countries in the Middle East and Africa in an attempt to determine coherence of local efforts with the international environmental commitments these countries have made by signing and ratifying the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework and Convention on Climate Change. The paper succinctly summarizes the impacts of climate change on the countries of the region and the responses of individual countries to the eminent environmental threats. Using country specific data, the paper identifies the mitigation and adaptation measures that individual governments communicated in their initial Nationally Determined Contributions to combat climate change and support concomitantly the realization of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals pertinent to climate impacts. Furthermore, this paper evaluates the overall environmental commitment and performance of the Arab countries and compares them to the average global performance. The findings indicate that most of the Arab countries are heading toward severe water shortages due to deteriorating water supply and growing water demand. The paper concludes that the Arab countries, individually and collectively embrace the Paris Agreement and engage in necessary measures to combat and/or adapt to climate change. Furthermore, the paper presents supporting evidence to show that the Arab countries are at par with the rest of the world when dealing with climate change issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change represents the state of knowledge of anthropogenic disruption to the climate system, its diverse ecosystem and societal impacts, and the imperative for and challenges of mitigation and adaptation responses. It is foundational for global climate policymaking. This paper examines the place of tourism in AR6 and reviews its key findings for tourism's future. Overall, tourism related content declined relative to previous assessments. While notable improvements in content occurred for Africa, visible knowledge gaps remain in the tourism growth regions of South America, Middle East, and South Asia. There remains limited discussion of many impacts, and very limited understanding of integrated impacts and the effectiveness of adaptation strategies at the destination scale. The contribution of tourism to global emissions was omitted, however tourism was discussed in the context of luxury emissions and just transitions. Tourism is repeatedly identified in solution space discussions, particularly for ecosystem protection, but without consideration of the future of tourism in a rapidly decarbonizing and climate disrupted economy. With only 21% of published climate change and tourism literature in the AR6 review period cited, tourism academics should elevate tourism content and engagement in future assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For millennia, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been a culturally dynamic zone, bounded by maritime societies dependent on the sea for communication, trade and livelihoods. The archaeological evidence of these past societies represents an extraordinary physical legacy of human endeavour and presence across this region, contributing to senses of place, identity and belonging amongst contemporary coastal communities. However, the coastal landscapes and marine environment of the MENA region are undergoing a period of profound change, associated with large-scale human development and climate change. In order to assess this change and the level of impact on the resource, the Maritime Endangered Archaeology project (MarEA) was established in 2019 to document cultural heritage sites and landscapes across the coastal and near-shore zones of the survey region. This paper introduces the work of the project and outlines a series of case studies presented in this volume that are representative of the variety and depth of work being undertaken within the project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Anopheles stephensi is a malaria-transmitting mosquito that has recently expanded from its primary range in Asia and the Middle East, to locations in Africa. This species is a competent vector of both Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria. Perhaps most alarming, the characteristics of An. stephensi, such as container breeding and anthropophily, make it particularly adept at exploiting built environments in areas with no prior history of malaria risk. Methods: In this paper, global maps of thermal transmission suitability and people at risk (PAR) for malaria transmission by An. stephensi were created, under current and future climate. Temperature-dependent transmission suitability thresholds derived from recently published species-specific thermal curves were used to threshold gridded, monthly mean temperatures under current and future climatic conditions. These temperature driven transmission models were coupled with gridded population data for 2020 and 2050, under climate-matched scenarios for future outcomes, to compare with baseline predictions for 2020 populations. Results: Using the Global Burden of Disease regions approach revealed that heterogenous regional increases and decreases in risk did not mask the overall pattern of massive increases of PAR for malaria transmission suitability with An. stephensi presence. General patterns of poleward expansion for thermal suitability were seen for both P. falciparum and P. vivax transmission potential. Conclusions: Understanding the potential suitability for An. stephensi transmission in a changing climate provides a key tool for planning, given an ongoing invasion and expansion of the vector. Anticipating the potential impact of onward expansion to transmission suitable areas, and the size of population at risk under future climate scenarios, and where they occur, can serve as a large-scale call for attention, planning, and monitoring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the linkages between information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion, renewable energy consumption (REC), and carbon (CO2) emissions across three distinct regions: the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations. We explore the causal pathways linking these variables and perform a comparative assessment of region-specific patterns with their policy implications. Utilizing a panel dataset of 28 countries from 1998 to 2019, we employ panel ARDL, FMOLS, DOLS, and D-H causality tests. The comprehensive analysis of the sample reveals that ICT development enhances CO2 emissions, whereas REC reduces emissions. However, the comparative analysis suggests a positive linkage between ICT diffusion and CO2 emissions in MENA and OECD countries but a negative linkage in SAARC countries. Further, REC substantially reduces emissions in MENA and OECD countries but has an insignificant effect in SAARC countries. Our findings corroborate the first-order effect of ICT (negative environmental impact) in MENA and OECD countries, with contextual variations attributed to economic structure, financial sector growth, trade openness, and industrialization. These findings offer pivotal insights for policymakers to leverage ICT capabilities and REC to attain sustainable development and mitigate climate change consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Carbon reduction measures were summarized and evaluated. • The carbon removal capacity and cost of some carbon reduction methods were predicted. • The main CCUS projects in the world were collated and analyzed. • The principles of CCUS technology were reviewed in terms of progress, problems and prospects. Since the industrial revolution, the greenhouse effect has become more and more serious, causing great impacts on human beings and society. Many countries have formulated carbon neutrality and introduced a series of emission reduction measures. This paper summarizes and evaluates for the first time three universally appropriate carbon reduction measures: energy upgrading, biotechnology, and carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology in conjunction with the policies of each country. The choice of carbon reduction methods depends on the economic situation and natural resources of each country. For example, the Middle East is more in need of energy upgrades, South America is focused on biotechnology, and Western Europe is currently more suited to CCUS technology. This paper also predicts the carbon reduction capacity and capital consumption of 10 carbon reduction methods based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data and the current development of emission reduction technologies. This can provide a reference for countries to choose appropriate carbon reduction methods. Meanwhile, this paper comprehensively reviews the principles of CCUS technology, including the current progress, problems, and prospects for application. The CCUS technology plays a significant role in promoting the transformation of the energy structure and responding to global climate change. Promoting the rapid development and wide application of CCUS technology requires the joint efforts of governments, enterprises and the public: government policy, enterprise investment and public support. This paper can provide references for countries to select appropriate carbon reduction methods and guidance for researchers to further improve the effect of CCUS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Science diplomacy has been used for the broad purpose of international knowledge management. Countries engage in science diplomacy to access and promote knowledge, as well as influence public opinion. Despite the rising interest in science diplomacy, there is very little research on how science diplomacy can be utilized to tackle global challenges such as climate change. This paper aims to bring developing countries in front and show how science and technology cooperation among developing countries and between developing and developed countries can address climate change problems. Looking from a science and technology policy lens and highlighting the difference between science diplomacy and epistemic communities, we investigate structured government attempts in initiating cooperation toward specific ends. This paper looks at five cases: Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research (PEER), Middle East Regional Cooperation (MERC) Program, bilateral cooperation between Germany and China on electromobility, Islamic Development Bank (IDB) Reverse Linkage program, and The China South–South Climate Cooperation Fund. Then it builds a taxonomy on how science diplomacy is used in climate change mitigation and adaptation and attempts to make a synthesis of the cases. We argue that there is room for developing countries in international knowledge management if science diplomacy tools are properly designed and managed to take context‐specific nature of countries into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) is a preindustrial phase of pronounced natural climate variability with a core period from 1000 to 1200 CE. The paper presents a synthesis that integrates palaeotemperature records from the Greater Mediterranean Region encompassing the past 1,500 years based on multiproxy data from 79 published land and marine sites. MCA warming dominated the Western Mediterranean (Iberia, NW Africa) as well as the northern land areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region. MCA cooling prevailed in the Canary Current Upwelling System, southern Levant, and some sea areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean. Previous palaeoreconstructions suggest persistent positive Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO+) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+) conditions during the MCA, while the Little Ice Age was dominated by an AMO− and NAO− regime. During the past 150 years, AMO+ conditions are typically associated with warming episodes in the Mediterranean area. A similar relationship appears to have also been established during the MCA as the majority of all Mediterranean land sites experienced warm climate conditions. In contrast, the NAO typically leads to a characteristic west‐east temperature dipole pattern in the basin, as documented for the last decades. During NAO+ conditions the Western Mediterranean is generally warm (and dry), while large parts of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean are cold. Similar trends seem to have been developed during the MCA when the NAO+ regime led to consistent warming in the Western Mediterranean, while a significant number of sites with MCA cooling existed in the Central and Eastern Mediterranean. Plain Language Summary: Mediterranean climate has been warming significantly over the past 100 years with anthropogenic climate change having become a key issue. In order to better understand modern climatic change, developments need to be placed into a longer‐term preindustrial context to compare with times when human CO2 emissions did not yet play a major role for climate. This paper integrates data on Medieval temperature trends from 79 published Mediterranean land and marine sites. Our synthesis shows that the Western Mediterranean (Iberia, Northwest Africa) as well as the northern land areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region have experienced a warm phase 1000–1200 CE, corresponding to the so‐called "Medieval Climate Anomaly." Contemporaneous cooling occurred in other parts of the Greater Mediterranean region, namely, in the southern Levant, some sea areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean, and the Canary Current Upwelling System. The regional differences in Medieval Mediterranean temperature trends show a pattern, which partly resembles modern multidecadal temperature variability in the area. The main drivers of these patterns appear to be Atlantic ocean cycles (AMO, NAO), which episodically shift between positive and negative phases and lead to characteristic temperature effects in the region. Key Points: The Western Mediterranean and northern land areas of the Central and Eastern Mediterranean region were warming during Medieval timesMedieval cooling prevailed in Canary Current Upwelling System, south Levant and some sea areas of the Central and Eastern MediterraneanPositive phases of the AMO and NAO ocean cycles appear to have led to temperature patterns in Medieval times similar to those of today [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey is located in the heart of complex transition geography between Eurasia and the Middle East. In the grand scheme, the so-called eastern Mediterranean Basin is located almost in the middle of the dusty belt, and is a hot spot of climate change. The downstream location of dust-carrying winds from close desert sources reveals Turkey as an open plane to particulate matter exposure throughout the year. In order to clarify this phenomenon, this paper aims to determine the desert dust climatology of Turkey via CALIPSO onboard Lidar. This prominent instrument enables us to understand clouds, aerosols and their types, and related climatic systems, with its valuable products. In this study, a 9-year CALIPSO-derived pure dust product dataset was formed to explain horizontal and vertical distributions, transport heights and case incidences. The results indicated that the pure dust extinction coefficient increased as the location shifted from west to east. Moreover, in the same direction of west to east, the dominant spring months changed to summer and autumn. Mountain range systems surrounding Anatolia were the main obstacles against lofted and buoyant dust particles travelling to northern latitudes. Even if high ridges accumulated mass load on the southern slopes, they also enabled elevated particles to reach the ground level of the inner cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research on climate change mitigation and adaptation is pressing in order to understand its implications and risks in different urban areas. It is especially critical for those who face high degrees of urban inequality in the context of an uneven state presence. This paper is an explorative and investigative study which uses Cairo as a case. The focus of the study is on mapping state and private sector efforts in mitigating climate change issues, specifically for vulnerable groups who have limited access to public services. The study adopted an investigative approach where a literature search and bibliometric mapping were used to identify the gap in knowledge in the field of architecture and urban climate change mitigation and adaptation, followed by a field survey which included conducting interviews and questionnaires with different stakeholders from the public and private sector to investigate the link between the efforts for climate change mitigation. The explorative part of the study concluded that there is a huge knowledge gap in the Middle East and in Egypt when it comes to research efforts related to climate change with a focus on the built environment. The results of the investigative part of this study revealed that—apart from already limited efforts on ground—there is no synchronization in efforts between the public and private sector. Climate change issues are still not a priority when poverty, economy, and health are still a prime concern and take precedence over climate change. There is uneven presence of public efforts for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The efforts that do exist in the public sphere are self-help unorganized work (efforts) conducted by the civil society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to undertake a narrative review on climate change, institutional quality, and SDGs within the context of Yemen. The methodology is a broad study of past and recent academic works related to the topic's keywords. In essence, a narrative review has been undertaken to incorporate the three interlacing issues; climate change, institutional quality, and SDG in the context of Yemen. The present research work reinforces the evidence that climate change effects are particularly more catastrophic in regions already under political, socio-economic, and cultural pressures. Eventually, the attainment of SDGs become increasingly challenging in contexts with intense climate variability and native disturbances. Besides, the lack of quality institutions and strong governance put in peril the stability of the country, thereby making it more prone to conflicts. This eventually leads to the formation of a vicious circle where low institutional quality fecund more conflicts, which in turn further destabilizes state institutions. Overall, climate change is making matters worse for countries like Yemen, and hence this study provides an insight into the Yemenite society and economy. Since this is a narrative review with an interpretive approach, further studies should aim to engage in more econometric analysis covering the interference relationships between climate change, institutional quality, and SDGs, especially in countries facing the turmoils of war and conflict. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies a scoping review approach to inductively assess the evolution of empirical adaptation research in the global South over the period 2010 to 2020 using, as indicators of the literature, three leading adaptation journals covering different scales of analysis: Global Environmental Change, Regional Environmental Change and Climate and Development. The review confirms that previous calls for an increase in empirical adaptation research have been heeded. Research covers both policy and practice, and also different scales, with a particular focus on agricultural and rural settings. There is significant and growing interest in the determinants of adaptation and adaptive capacity (including the role of barriers and enablers), and a small but growing interest in the role of gender. The overall increase in total publications does not show even geographical or sectoral coverage. Large swathes of sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East/North Africa remain severely under-researched; and the overwhelming majority of papers focus on rural and agricultural issues rather than cities. This analysis offers tangible evidence to highlight where geographical and thematic gaps exist in our research on adaptation in the global South. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change results from increasing national efforts of all countries to achieve higher economic growth. These efforts contribute to extravagant phenomena such as sea-level rise, global warming, and decreasing precipitation. The importance of climate change is measured by its impact on economic activities. Some regions, including the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA), are exposed to more severe climate change. Therefore, the effects of climate change on the economic growth of the MENA region countries are investigated in this study. Thus temperature and precipitation data plus economic growth of 14 MENA countries during 2000–2016 were used here. The Pedroni, Kao, and Westerlund cointegration tests confirmed existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship. This study employed panel data cointegration fully modified ordinary least squares and dynamic ordinary least squares models. The results indicate existence of a cointegrated long-term relationship between climate change and economic growth. The economic growth elasticity to climate change, gross fixed capital formation, population growth, and inflation are consistent with theoretical and empirical research types. Moreover, comparing the elasticity in both applied approaches shows that climate change variables have significant negative effects with the same results for both models. It implies that over the long term one percent increase in temperature and precipitation is associated with a 0.25 and 0.024 percentage decrease in economic growth (under the FMOLS model), respectively. Moreover, a one percent increase in temperature and precipitation over the long term is associated with a 0.28 and 0.005 percent decrease in economic growth (under the DOLS model), respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The Middle East region is a key player in the world energy market today. It holds approximately over 50% of the world's proven fossil fuel reserves. Yet, the region is significantly challenged by the large dependence on finite fossil fuel resources in its primary energy supply. The intricate relationship between climate change mitigation and the development of energy systems underlines great uncertainty over the future of energy development in the Middle East. Such uncertainty is greatly linked to growing energy demands and the region's capacity to transition to low‐carbon energy systems. Over the past 20 years, the total primary energy demand in the Middle has almost tripled due to rapid population growth and economic development. Notably, most of the growing energy demand was concentrated in 5 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE. These 5 countries represented around 82% of the total primary energy demand in 2015, with Saudi Arabia and Iran alone accounted for 60%. The core question of this paper is what are the possible implications of growing energy demands in these countries and which sectors will entail significant increases in the projected energy requirements? The significance of the work presented here stems from analyzing 4 major countries that constitute the largest share in Middle East's total energy consumption and associated emissions. Examining these 4 countries together is important to highlight how future increase in these countries could largely affect the overall energy demand from the Middle East region in the next 20 years. Thus, the scope of the paper is looking at energy demand implications in 4 countries, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Iraq is excluded from the analysis due to the large political uncertainty associated with Iraq's energy development. Here, a regression model is used to forecast energy demand from 5 economic sectors across the 4 countries using projected increase in population and gross domestic product (GDP) by 2030. Results indicate that most of the projected energy demand will be from Iran and Saudi Arabia. In addition, industry and transportation sectors will witness the largest increase among the 5 sectors examined in the paper. For instance, industry and transportation sector will collectively account for 52% and 67% of the projected energy demand in Iran and Saudi Arabia, respectively. Such results are important to highlight when ascertaining sectoral level implications of future energy demands and to determine potential areas where energy savings can be made. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Middle East is an area characterized by strong gradients in meteorological conditions and varied land cover. As a result, some of the hottest places in the world as well as very cold areas can be found in this region. The objective of this paper is to quantitatively assess land surface temperature (LST) variations in the countries of the Middle East to estimate the trends and determine whether relationships suggesting the impact of climate change can be observed. Spatiotemporal variability of LST was investigated through the analysis of MODIS Terra LST images (MOD11A2) from 2001 to 2018. The LST differences in both daytime series and seasonal and international means were assessed. The analyses showed that in spring (MAM), about 20,000 km2 of the study area has an LST higher than 50 °C, whereas 3700 km2 has LST lower than 0 °C. In summer (JJA), about 1 million km2 has LST higher than 50 °C. In the fall (SON), about 5 million km2 of the study area has a land surface temperature higher than 30 °C, with about 11 km2 hotter than 50 °C, whereas 320 km2 has LST lower than 0 °C. In winter (DJF), the hottest countries are Yemen, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, with 44.7, 41.8, and 39.8 °C, respectively, whereas the lowest LST values were recorded in Turkey, Iran, and Iraq, with −19.5, −18.1, and −10.5 °C, respectively. An upward trend in the minimum and a downward trend in the maximum value of the winter LST suggest that winters in the Middle East countries such as Iran, Israel, and Jordan have become milder during the considered period. Negative trends in the spring LST in Bahrain and Oman and the summer LST in Bahrain and Qatar suggest that these seasons in those countries became colder during the study period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the coming decades, ensuring food security is one of the greatest challenges in Ethiopia. Most Ethiopians practice mixed agricultural activity which represents about 33.88% of the country's GDP. Therefore, this paper is devoted to reviewing the existing agricultural challenges and future prospects in the country. Majorly, it focused on the shortage of farmland, climate change, fragmentation and degradation of farmland, unevenly distributed constructions and urbanizations, pests, lack of integration among stakeholders, political instabilities, and its prospects. Despite the numerous challenges, Ethiopia has marvelous opportunities like the commercialization of fruit, vegetable, and ornamental plant productions. The country has also ample opportunity in the areas of animal production that ranks first in Africa in the number of livestock heads. The country has a huge labor force and water resources. It is proximity to Middle East markets is valuable to transport fresh products within a short period of time to the needed destination. However, Ethiopia's current fruit, vegetable, and animal production for export are very limited because of fragmented cultivation and lack of quality. The country has also a great variety of climate and soil types that enables it to grow a diversity of horticultural crops. Therefore, emphasizing agriculture in Ethiopia requires the political as well as the economic commitment of all parties concerned. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water resources in the Middle East are under enormous stress, due to an increase in population growth and the extensive use of water resources, which exceeds the water demand in this regional bloc. Moreover, climatic changes pose another dimension of stress on water resources; these changes have significant environmental, social, and economic effects. In fact, the governance of these countries has the tendency of increasing this stress or decreasing it, depending on its performance and efficiency in applying policies, legislation and managerial plans towards decreasing the poverty and the vulnerability of the countries specially those suffering from poverty. In this paper, the vulnerability of five countries-Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria-will be assessed based on the extent of climate changes and the type of climate governance and their effects on water resources. This paper will introduce a new index, which will be called the Governance and Climate Vulnerability Index (GCVI). The index will measure the vulnerability of each country vis-à-vis water-related issues, while taking into account governance and climatic indicators. The vulnerability of these countries will also be ranked, for purposes of comparison. This paper concludes with the recommendation for governments to develop appropriate water resources management and to improve their environmental policies, including raising awareness on multiple levels. These strategies are expected to lead to decreased vulnerability to climatic changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East (EMME) has been the setting of significant societal and cultural changes over millennia, and served as a connecting point for cultures across Asia, Europe, and Africa. Bioarchaeology, the contextual study of past human remains, explores the dynamic relationship between and within biological, natural, environmental, socio-political, historical, and physical forces; as such, it has found important applications in the EMME. This paper briefly outlines the history of bioarchaeological research in the region and highlights contemporary themes and trends. The latter follow the research trends in Europe and North America with a focus on palaeopathology, followed by dietary reconstructions, activity patterns, and mobility. Emphasis is placed on the extent to which bioarchaeology in the EMME has adopted the concept of intersectionality, which is especially pertinent in the region, but also the degree to which it has explored key issues with contemporary significance, such as migration, structural violence, and climate change. The above concepts and topics can indeed be identified in EMME bioarchaeological studies over the past few years; however, intersectionality and structural violence are almost exclusively addressed implicitly, while all four themes should receive more attention in the future so that they enhance the understanding of these processes in the EMME with greater spatial and temporal resolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on global issues regarding energy and environment. The author says that the political unrest and fluctuating price of oil in North Africa and Middle East can affect world energy expectations, policies, and supply. The author states that the controversy on the role of energy regulation in the U.S. and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPC) will continue as well as the battle of for climate science and the future of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Dust storms are important phenomena over large regions of the arid and semi-arid areas of the Middle East. Due to the influences of dust aerosols on climate and human daily activities, dust detection plays a crucial role in environmental and climatic studies. Detection of dust storms is critical to accurately understand dust, their properties and distribution. Currently, remotely sensed data such as MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) with appropriate temporal and spectral resolutions have been widely used for this purpose. This paper investigates the capability of two physical-based methods, and random forests (RF) classifier, for the first time, to detect dust storms using MODIS imagery. Since the physical-based approaches are empirical, they suffer from certain drawbacks such as high variability of thresholds depending on the underlying surface. Therefore, classification-based approaches could be deployed as an alternative. In this paper, the most relevant bands are chosen based on the physical effects of the major classes, particularly dust, cloud and snow, on both emissive infrared and reflective bands. In order to verify the capability of the methods, OMAERUV AAOD (aerosol absorption optical depth) product from OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) sensor is exploited. In addition, some small regions are selected manually to be considered as ground truth for measuring the probability of false detection (POFD) and probability of missing detection (POMD). The dust class generated by RF is consistent qualitatively with the location and extent of dust observed in OMERAUV and MODIS true colour images. Quantitatively, the dust classes generated for eight dust outbreaks in the Middle East are found to be accurate from 7% and 6% of POFD and POMD respectively. Moreover, results demonstrate the sound capability of RF in classifying dust plumes over both water and land simultaneously. The performance of the physical-based approaches is found weaker than RF due to empirical thresholds that are not always true. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper proposes a novel multi-model approach, integrating the CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM framework, to assess the combined impacts of climate change and land use change on the potential of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems. By considering both climatic variables and land use patterns, this study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of how these factors influence CPV performance in the context of a changing environment. The proposed methodology offers valuable insights into the future viability and sustainability of CPV technology, enabling informed decision-making for policymakers, energy planners, and investors in the Middle East and Africa. As a result, the ability of the hybrid evolutionary CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM to predict the potential of CPV energy output for assessing the impacts of climate change on it was investigated in Alice Springs, the Middle East, and Africa. The outcome showed that the hybrid model significantly outperformed the other machine learning approaches. The fitted model was used to assess the potential impacts of climate change on CPV generation in Alice Springs, Australia, as well as the Middle East's and Africa's comparable climatic conditions. According to the study, climate change had the greatest impact on solar CPV energy production in Alice Springs, where it decreased the most by 8.577% under moderate forcing scenarios (SSP245) during the boreal summer season; moderately in the Middle East, where it decreased the mode by 2.316% under mitigation scenarios (SSP126) during the boreal summer season; and extremely minimally in Africa, where it decreased the mode by 1.263% under the far future sequencing period (2051–2099). Climate change also increased solar CPV energy production significantly in the Middle East in the far future sequencing period (2051–2099), as well as in Alice Springs, Australia, and Africa in the near future sequencing period (2015–2050). The strongest forcing scenario (SSP585) increased by 7.644% during the boreal autumn season in Africa; moderately increased by 6.502% during the boreal spring season in the Middle East; and had the least beneficial effects in Alice Springs, Australia, with increases of 5.538% during the boreal winter season. On an annual basis, all three regions showed a similar trend. Climate change (CLC) and urban expansion (URE) were also investigated in the Middle East and Africa for their effects on changes in solar CPV energy output. URE had a greater impact in Africa than the Middle East under the effective scenario, with a URE value of 45.45% for Africa and 20.15% for the Middle East, whereas CLC had a greater impact in the Middle East than Africa, with a CLC value of 29.01% compared to 5.47% for Africa. CLC and CPV residual factors, on the other hand, have a greater impact in the Middle East than in Africa, with effects of 29.01% and 50.83%, respectively, compared to 5.47% and 49.09%. The potential difference that drives the remediation of specific pollutants lies in the application of advanced technologies and sustainable practices. By exploring innovative solutions, such as using renewable energy sources like concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems, we can effectively mitigate the impacts of climate change and land use changes on pollutant concentrations. These technologies have the potential to significantly reduce pollution levels and create a cleaner and healthier environment for future generations. Assessing the CPV potential in different regions like Alice Springs, Australia, the Middle East, and Africa allows us to identify areas with high solar energy resources that can be harnessed for efficient pollutant remediation. Implementing prompt climate mitigation and adaptation measures is crucial for achieving a net-zero energy transition in the Middle East and Africa by 2050. In this context, prioritizing solar energy as the primary source of renewable energy is imperative for successful low-carbon economic planning in these regions. • CARIMA-SARIMA-GPM outperforms other applicable models • By 2100, the CPV potential in Alice Springs could increase by 0.082–5.338% at 1.5 °C • By 2100, the Middle East's CPV potential could increase by 0.021–0.221% at 1.5 °C. • By 2100, Africa's CPV potential could increase by 0.133–7.644% at 1.5 °C. • Climate change has harmed Alice Springs and the Middle East more than Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Climate change poses a worldwide challenge with anticipated exacerbation in the future, resulting in irreversible consequences. Nursing students may be vulnerable to experiencing psychological effects associated with climate change. Aim: The current study aimed to investigate the relationship between nursing students' knowledge and attitudes toward climate change and their psychological distress. Method: This descriptive cross-sectional study recruited 377 nursing students from three universities located in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt in the Middle East. Data collection was conducted using scales for assessing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change and their psychological distress. Correlations were assessed and multiple regression analysis was conducted to explore the predictors of students' psychological distress. Results: The current study showed that knowledge regarding climate change significantly and positively correlated to the attitude toward climate change (r = 0.213), then again, the score of psychological distress significantly and negatively correlated to the score of students' knowledge and attitude regarding climate change (r = − 0.182 and − 0.110 respectively). Regression analyses showed that academic achievement had the strongest positive impact on students' psychological distress, while knowledge regarding climate change and attitude toward climate change had negative impacts (β = 0.381, β=-0.205, and β=-0.045 respectively). Moreover, knowledge and attitude regarding climate change were found to be significant predictors of students' psychological distress, collectively accounting for 18.2% of the observed variance. Conclusions/Implication for future practice: The findings highlight the importance of incorporating climate change into nursing education programs. By enhancing nursing students' knowledge and attitudes towards climate change, there is potential to reduce their psychological distress. This study underscores the need for curriculum reforms that integrate climate change topics, aiming to foster a well-informed and resilient future nursing workforce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study assesses the potential macro-economic effects of climate change affecting operations in three maritime chokepoints, i.e., the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Turkish Straits. The analysis focuses on agricultural commodities. It couples a "logistics" model of maritime trade flows with a Computable General Equilibrium model considering three modelling alternatives: (1) increase of "iceberg trade costs", (2) shadow import tariffs, and (3) shadow export tariffs. Methodologically, we found a comforting qualitative agreement across methodologies in predicting the direction of changes in the main economic variables under scrutiny. However, negative GDP performances are more frequent and larger using the first method that also tends to predict lower import contractions than the other two methods. The impact assessment, examining storylines of climate-change-induced events delaying chokepoints operations, highlights that climate change impacts on chokepoints' operations can convey detectable effects on production and prices of agricultural commodities associated with negative GDP impacts worldwide. In addition, although trade re-composition generates winners and losers, total losses tend to prevail. The combined GDP losses of the three chokepoints can reach $34 billion (2014 prices) in 2030. It shows that weather events in remote locations, such as the Panama Canal, can have cascading effects on the EU, with potential losses of USD 2 billion $ in GDP. North Africa, Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable. They suffer from a drop in imports of agricultural commodities and GDP losses in all the three cases. This impact assessment emphasizes another mechanism at play that could increase the asymmetry and the adverse distributional impacts of climate change on agriculture. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to improve the thermal comfort of the occupants within the buildings in summer and winter climates, the current study thoroughly examines several designs using the Trombe wall. This aids green building designers in making the best decision in light of the environment's present state and constantly changing climatic circumstances. In addition to using locally accessible resources to reduce the expense of importing substitute materials to create these structures. With a global view on energy conservation, there is a focused effort and research endeavor toward decreasing energy usage in light of the worldwide energy crisis and growing prices. Alternative solar energy must be maximized to provide thermal comfort for cooling and warming situations with the least amount of energy. A Trombe wall is a cost-effective and ecologically friendly approach to harness solar power to provide summertime natural ventilation that lowers inside temperatures. On the other hand, it causes overheating in the winter as the massive wall stores heat and transfers it to the interior of the building. The present study reviews previously published papers on all the various improvements made to the Trombe solar wall for optimization that deals with improving the performance of heating/cooling conditions through various experimental and numerical approaches. The current research shows that there are research gaps in many different improvement systems, which were clarified at the end of the research paper. Integrating the Trombe solar wall and PCM achieves a maximum energy saving of 36% in the summer and up to 55% in the winter. • A shortage of Trombe wall evaluation in the Middle East conditions was observed. • Employing the Trombe wall to buildings led to a reduction in energy demand. • TW system provided the proper internal thermal comfort during the summer/winter. • Investing in renewable energy results in energy source diversification and cost savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most countries in the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region currently face water scarcity and rising water demand. In order to respond to these challenges, many MENA countries proceed to the use of desalination. As desalination processes are highly energy-intensive, the use of conventional energy for the operation of desalination plants contributes to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, with negative impacts on the water cycle. The use of renewable energy sources to supply desalination plants with electricity can be a more sustainable and environmentally friendlier option to bridge the water demand gap. The present paper outlines the main barriers to desalination using renewable energies (referred to in short as 'renewable energy desalination', RED) in most MENA countries, gives an overview of main features of the water and energy policies in the MENA region, and compares them to the framework conditions in Australia or Spain. Supportive policy approaches to overcome the existing barriers and to promote RED are highlighted. The paper advocates the importance of adopting a more consistent legal framework to foster the deployment of RED and thereby reduce the effects of climate change and water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A study of past lake-level changes in Lake Xinias covering the last 40 000 years was presented in an earlier paper. In that paper, changes during the Holocene were only briefly dealt with, because of poor sedimentary representation. In this paper a supplementary transect of cores is described, in which Holocene lake-level changes are better recorded. The correlation of the cores was based on pollen and lithostratigraphic analyses, and a curve was constructed showing recorded lake-level changes. The curve from Lake Xinias was compared with an earlier compilation of lake-level changes from the Balkans, mainly from Greece. The compilation shows rising lake levels during the earlier part of the Holocene, and successively lowered levels during the later part. Most lake levels were high between about 8000 and 5500 cal. yr BP. The reconstruction from Lake Xinias indcates similar changes during the early and late Holocene. However, it differs by indicating a lowering in lake level, culminating around 7000 cal. yr BP, interrupting and dividing the period of mid-Holocene high lake-level stand. Further studies are required to show if this lowering in Lake Xinias was regionally representative and caused by climate change, or was caused by tectonic disturbance locally affecting lake level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Not including population changes lead to an average underestimation of the heat-health burden of 64 %. • Of the identified studies 45 % included changes in population size. • 23 % of studies included demographic change as changes in age structure. • Of the 15 studies using SSP-RCP scenarios 12 included implausible combinations. Anthropogenic climate change will have a detrimental impact on global health, including the direct impact of higher ambient temperatures. Existing projections of heat-related health outcomes in a changing climate often consider increasing ambient temperatures alone. Population growth and structure has been identified as a key source of uncertainty in future projections. Age acts as a modifier of heat risk, with heat-risk generally increasing in older age-groups. In many countries the population is ageing as lower birth rates and increasing life expectancy alter the population structure. Preparing for an older population, in particular in the context of a warmer climate should therefore be a priority in public health research and policy. We assess the level of inclusion of population growth and demographic changes in research projecting exposure to heat and heat-related health outcomes. To assess the level of inclusion of population changes in the literature, keyword searches of two databases were implemented, followed by reference and citation scans to identify any missed papers. Relevant papers, those including a projection of the heat health burden under climate change, were then checked for inclusion of population scenarios. Where sensitivity to population change was studied the impact of this on projections was extracted. Our analysis suggests that projecting the heat health burden is a growing area of research, however, some areas remain understudied including Africa and the Middle East and morbidity is rarely explored with most studies focusing on mortality. Of the studies pairing projections of population and climate, specifically SSPs and RCPs, many used pairing considered to be unfeasible. We find that not including any projected changes in population or demographics leads to underestimation of health burdens of on average 64 %. Inclusion of population changes increased the heat health burden across all but two studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much attention has been paid to the potential role that climate and food security has on conflict, especially in the Middle East. However, there has been little critical examination beyond the statistical correlation of events, which demonstrates whether a causal link exists and if it does, what can be done about it. This paper explores the conceptual linkages between food and conflict and attempts to draw attention to the opportunity cost of conflict as the nexus for decision-making in this context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is the most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive to future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such as temperature and precipitation that will depend on socioeconomic pathways and changes in climate. This work explores changes in both the mean and extreme terrestrial water storage (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) and stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed to offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘ C and compares both with historical period simulations. Both mean TWS and extreme TWS are projected to significantly decrease under SSP5-8.5 over the domain, except for the Arabian Peninsula, particularly in the wetter lands around the Caspian and Mediterranean seas. Relative to global warming, SAI partially ameliorates the decreased mean TWS in the wet regions, while it has no significant effect on the increased TWS in drier lands. In the entire domain studied, the mean TWS is larger under SAI than pure GHG forcing, mainly due to the significant cooling and, in turn, a substantial decrease in evapotranspiration under SAI relative to SSP5-8.5. Changes in extreme water storage excursions under global warming are reduced by SAI. Extreme TWS under both future climate scenarios is larger than throughout the historical period across Iran, Iraq, and the Arabian Peninsula, but the response of the more continental eastern North Africa hyper-arid climate is different from the neighboring dry lands. In the latter case, we note a reduction in the mean TWS trend under both GHG and SAI scenarios, with extreme TWS values also showing a decline compared to historical conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and energy security are global challenges requiring concerted attention and action by all of the world’s countries. Under these conditions, energy supplier and exporter countries in the Middle East region are experiencing further challenges, such as increasing domestic energy demand while energy exports have to concurrently be kept at high levels. Middle East countries process the largest proven oil and gas reserves in the world and contribute a large fraction of the world’s CO2emissions from the use of these as fuels both domestically and internationally. This paper addresses different policies that could dramatically change the future course of the Middle East region toward a zero CO2emission energy system. To this aim, an integrated energy supply–demand model has been developed to analyze required commitments including renewable energy and energy efficiency targets and the potential of nuclear power, all of which should need to be considered in order to reduce CO2emissions by 2100. The results indicate that nearly 43% of the global energy of the Middle East region can be supplied from non-fossil fuel resources in 2100. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Eastern Mediterranean region has been exposed to drought episodes, which have been occurring more frequently during the last decades. The objective of the present paper is to study the precipitation regime of the Damascus (Mazzeh) meteoric station by analysing drought characteristics using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and comparing this with the drought in Cyprus. The cumulative drought conceptis proposed to characterize long-term hydrologic drought, which affects the shallow groundwater productivity in terms of quantity and quality. Gamma probability distribution was fitted to the long-term annual precipitation in Damascus from 1918-1919 to 2007-2008 ( n = 90 years). Generally, a decreasing trend of 17% to the mean annual rainfall of Damascus and 13% to the mean annual rainfall of Cyprus was estimated between 1970 and 2000. The SPI identifies three major extended drought periods: (1) 9 years of severe drought (1954-1963) with an average 20% precipitation deficit per year compared to the mean. (2) 8 years of severe drought (1983-1991) with a 27% deficit per year on average. (3) 9 years of extreme drought (1993-2002) with a 31% deficit per year on average. The cumulative standardized precipitation index (SPI 30) demonstrates positive values for the first period and is indicative of having no effect on the global water balance. SPI 30 exhibits sensitive equilibrium with near zero values / a near zero value (±1.5) for the second period. For the third period, however, the SPI 30 decreases below −10 indicating an extreme hydrological drought that has negative consequences on the recent groundwater recharge. It is required to develop and implement a sustainable groundwater management strategy to reduce long-terms drought risks. Generally, the SPI 30 in Cyprus is parallel to that in Damascus with a 3-5 year delay. Thus, the central zone of the Eastern Mediterranean region is facing big challenges and has been suffering from three decades of moderate to severe hydrological drought (SPI 30=−5 to −10) causing a severe decrease in springs discharges of the region. Therefore, in order to reduce the climate change effects on water resources, it is necessary to adopt a sustainable proactive management plan during the frequent severe droughts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the evidence for climatic changes in the Eastern Mediterranean for the period 200–800 AD and offers hypotheses on the role of climatic fluctuations in the societal developments that occurred in this region at the end of Antiquity. The geographical focus of the paper includes Anatolia and the Levant, two major regions of the Eastern Roman Empire that are rich in environmental, historical and archaeological data. The paper starts with the review of current research on the economic, settlement and vegetation history of the Eastern Mediterranean in Late Antiquity, which provides the necessary framework for the study of potential climate impacts. The core of the article is devoted to the analysis of the palaeoclimatic evidence, which is divided in two groups. The first one encompasses the direct evidence, that is palaeoclimate proxies and the textual record of extreme weather events, while the second includes indirect information on climate, in particular multi-proxy studies that include pollen analysis, archaeological evidence, and the historical evidence of subsistence crises. We conclude that during our study period there occurred three periods of substantially different climatic conditions. A late Roman drought ∼350–470 AD was followed by a dramatic shift to much wetter climatic conditions. These in turn changed into increasing dryness after ∼730 AD in Anatolia and ∼670 AD in the Levant. The lack of chronological precision in the dating of the archaeological evidence and of some climatic records makes it impossible at present to make conclusive observations regarding the societal responses to these climatic fluctuations. Nonetheless in all probability, the extended and – in some areas - severe late Roman drought did not cause any major social upheaval or economic decline in Anatolia or the Levant, although it appears to have contributed to a change in patterns of water use in the cities. In contrast, the increased availability of moisture after ∼470 AD does appear to have contributed to the expansion of rural settlement and agriculture into environmentally marginal terrain, including semi-arid areas such as the Negev. In this way climate probably contributed to the general economic prosperity of the late Roman Empire in the east of the Mediterranean basin. The end of this late Roman world system came about finally in mid-7th c. and, at least in Anatolia, is not directly associated with any shift in climatic conditions. Aridity during early Medieval times may be one of the main factors behind the gradual long-term decline of settlement on the marginal lands in the Levant following Islamic conquest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As heatwaves become more frequent, intense, and longer-lasting due to climate change, the question of breaching thermal limits becomes pressing. A wet-bulb temperature (Tw) of 35 °C has been proposed as a theoretical upper limit on human abilities to biologically thermoregulate. But, recent--empirical--research using human subjects found a significantly lower maximum Tw at which thermoregulation is possible even with minimal metabolic activity. Projecting future exposure to this empirical critical environmental limit has not been done. Here, using this more accurate threshold and the latest coupled climate model results, we quantify exposure to dangerous, potentially lethal heat for future climates at various global warming levels. We find that humanity is more vulnerable to moist heat stress than previously proposed because of these lower thermal limits. Still, limiting warming to under 2 °C nearly eliminates exposure and risk of widespread uncompensable moist heatwaves as a sharp rise in exposure occurs at 3 °C of warming. Parts of the Middle East and the Indus River Valley experience brief exceedances with only 1.5 °C warming. More widespread, but brief, dangerous heat stress occurs in a +2 °C climate, including in eastern China and sub-Saharan Africa, while the US Midwest emerges as a moist heat stress hotspot in a +3 °C climate. In the future, moist heat extremes will lie outside the bounds of past human experience and beyond current heat mitigation strategies for billions of people. While some physiological adaptation from the thresholds described here is possible, additional behavioral, cultural, and technical adaptation will be required to maintain healthy lifestyles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis is a highly invasive insect pest that causes extensive damage to many of the primary food crops. Considering the recent challenges facing global food production including climate change, knowledge about the invasive potential of this pest is essential. In this study, the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) was used to predict the current global spatial distribution of the pest and the future distribution using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 in 2050 and 2070. High AUC and TSS values indicated model accuracy and high performance. Response curves showed that the optimal temperature for the S.littoralis is between 10 and 28 °C. The pest is currently found in Africa and is widely distributed across the Middle East and throughout Southern Europe. MaxEnt results revealed that the insect will shift towards Northern Europe and the Americas. Further, China was seen to have a suitable climate. We also extrapolated the impact of these results on major producing countries and how this affects trade flow, which help decision makers to take the invasiveness of such destructive pest into their account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of major glacial/interglacial paleohydrologic variations in the Middle-Paleolithic Levant on hominin migration and occupation. The climatic reconstruction is based primarily on the most straight-forward paleohydrologic records recently published. These terrestrial proxies convey direct paleoenvironmental signals of effective precipitation and aquifer recharge. The two main proxies are temporal changes of terminal lake levels in the Dead Sea basin and periods of deposition or non-deposition of speleothems. Other records, such as stable isotopes, if interpreted correctly, correspond well with these two direct proxies. All the records consistently indicate that the last two glacial periods in the central Levant were generally wet and cool, while the last two interglacials were dry and warm, so more water was available for the ecosystem and thus hominins during glacial periods than during interglacials. Some proxies indicate that the higher precipitation/evaporation ratio during glacial periods involved higher precipitation rather than only reduced evaporation. Beyond the general mean glacial/interglacial climate suggested here, variations occurred at all temporal scales throughout glacial or interglacial periods. In the Sahara-Negev arid barrier, moister conditions occurred during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6a-5e, when Anatomically Modern Humans apparently migrated out of Africa. We suggest that this migration, as well as the later Neanderthal expansion from Southeast Europe or the Anatolian plateau into the Levant during early MIS 4, could be facilitated by the observed major climatic variations., (Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) represents a substantial area of the terrestrial landmass encompassing several countries and ecosystems. This area is generally drier and warmer compared to the rest of the world, and has extreme resource limitations that are highly vulnerable to a changing climate, geopolitical instability and land degradation. This paper will first identify the nature of climate change in the region by analyzing a downscaled climate data and identifying the hotspots of climate change in MENA. It was found that the climate vulnerability is quite high, with the mean annual temperature increasing by as much as 4–6 degrees towards the end of the century. The nature precipitation under climate change is quite speculative, with the Maghreb region showing the highest vulnerability. Based on these results, five action points are postulated that may be implemented to rapidly progress our understanding of climate vulnerability and enhance the climate change preparedness in MENA's agri-food sector, to take necessary actions to adapt to a changing climate with a systemic resilience perspective. These include working towards: (1) enhancing the sustainability of the rainfed-desert transitional belt (Rangelands) in the MENA; (2) enhancing the sustainability of agri-food systems in the food baskets of MENA and (3) working towards fostering a collective intelligence to support climate change research in the MENA. (4) The need for foresight advice on resilient food systems under climate change and (5) the need for transformative policies for stabilization and reconstruction under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The early to mid-Holocene has long been recognised as a period of wetter climate with widespread lacustrine development and vegetation expansion throughout south-east Arabia. Recent palaeoclimate data has, however, transformed our understanding of the Holocene Pluvial Phase ( HPP) and evidence presented in this paper demonstrates that climate was neither homogeneous during the period, nor were shifts between pluvial and arid episodes synchronous across the region. This dynamic setting provided the backdrop for human expansion during the Neolithic, and in turn raises important questions about the interactions between these populations and the natural environment in south-east Arabia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Levant region of Israel, located along the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, is characterized by Mediterranean climate, but sixty km eastwards towards the Dead Sea Rift Valley (DSRV), the region rapidly becomes a 'rain shadowʼ desert. Speleothems from the Mediterranean climate zone continuously grew throughout several glacial/interglacial cycles, indicating that water was always available in the unsaturated zone. Their δ18O variations match global and regional climate changes, with the Eastern Mediterranean Sea being the major control on their δ18O values, as evident from the similarity between the speleothems and the planktonic foraminifer G. ruber records. In contrast, speleothems along the central and southern segments of the DSRV grew mainly during last glacial periods coinciding with the higher stands of Lake Lisan, the precursor of the present-day Dead Sea. This paper discusses the newly discovered Zalmon Cave speleothems, located in the northern segment of the DSRV shedding light on the hydrological conditions along the rift during last glacial. Unlike speleothems located further south along the DSRV, Zalmon Cave speleothems grew both during glacial and interglacial periods. However, during last glacial their δ18O values, shifted to lower values by ∼1–2‰ relative to speleothems from central Israel coinciding also with the largest difference in δ18O values between Zalmon Cave speleothems and the marine record. The data suggest that a change of the westerlies' storm tracks occurred during most of the last glacial period, which resulted in increased rainfall in the northern DSRV providing freshwater input during the otherwise relatively 'drierʼ glacial. • Speleothems were deposited almost continuously in the northern Dead Sea Catchment. • Interglacial climatic conditions in the Lower Galilee and central Israel were similar. • Glacial climatic conditions in the Lower Galilee were more humid than central Israel. • The Levant experienced a southern shift in storm tracks during the Last Glacial. • Differences in sea-land isotopic relationships indicate changes in precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sedimentary record of the Dead Sea provides an exceptional high-resolution archive of past climate changes in the drought-sensitive eastern Mediterranean-Levant, a key region for the development of humankind at the boundary of global climate belts. Moreover, it is the only deep hypersaline lake known to have deposited long sequences of finely laminated, annually deposited sediments (i.e. varves) of varied compositions, including aragonite, gypsum, halite and clastic sediments. Vast efforts have been made over the years to decipher the environmental information stored in these evaporitic-clastic sequences spanning from the Pleistocene Lake Amora to the Holocene Dead Sea. A general characterisation of sediment facies has been derived from exposed sediment sections, as well as from shallow- and deep-water sediment cores. During high lake stands and episodes of positive water budget, mostly during glacial times, alternating aragonite and detritus laminae ('aad' facies) were accumulated, whereas during low lake stands and droughts, prevailing during interglacials, laminated detritus ('ld' facies) and laminated halite ('lh' facies) dominate the sequence. In this paper, we (i) review the three types of laminated sediments of the Dead Sea sedimentary record ('aad', 'ld' and 'lh' facies), (ii) discuss their modes of formation, deposition and accumulation, and their interpretation as varves, and (iii) illustrate how Dead Sea varves are utilized for palaeoclimate reconstructions and for establishing floating chronologies. Image 1 • The Dead Sea is the only deep hypersaline lake with varved sediments. • The chronological and paleoclimatic value of Dead Sea varves is demonstrated. • The interpretation of alternating aragonite-detritus laminae as varves is evaluated. • Lake monitoring confirms the interpretation of laminated halite as varves. • Distinguishing between annual and non-annual laminations requires micro-facies analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Postglacial expansion of deciduous oak woodlands of the Zagros-Anti-Taurus Mountains, a major biome of the Near East, was delayed until the middle Holocene at ~6300 cal. yr BP. The current hypotheses explain this delay as a consequence of a regional aridity during the early Holocene, slow migration rates of forest trees, and/or a long history of land use and agro-pastoralism in this region. In the present paper, support is given to a hypothesis that suggests different precipitation seasonalities during the early Holocene compared with the late Holocene. The oak species of the Zagros-Anti-Taurus Mts, particularly Quercus brantii Lindl., are strongly dependent on spring precipitation for regeneration and are sensitive to a long dry season. Detailed analysis of modern atmospheric circulation patterns in SW Asia during the late spring suggests that the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) intensification can modify the amount of late spring and/or early summer rainfall in western/northwestern Iran and eastern Anatolia, which could in turn have controlled the development of the Zagros-Anti-Taurus deciduous oak woodlands. During the early Holocene, the northwestward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) could have displaced the subtropical anticyclonic belt or associated high pressure ridges to the northwest. The latter could, in turn, have prevented the southeastward penetration of low pressure systems originating from the North Atlantic and Black Sea regions. Such atmospheric configuration could have reduced or eliminated the spring precipitation creating a typical Mediterranean continental climate characterized by winter-dominated precipitation. This scenario highlights the complexity of biome response to climate system interactions in transitional climatic and biogeographical regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing demand for water and electricity in the Middle East causes environmental stress. Along with the industrial sector, desalination and power plants are linked to fossil fuel combustion, which is chiefly responsible for increased carbon dioxide emissions. The magnitude of certain sustainable development indicators (such as the ecological footprint) has led to growing concern. This paper presents some of the challenges facing the transition to sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the extent of human-induced global warming is inconclusive, the vulnerability of natural systems to rapid changes in climate patterns is regarded as one of the most challenging issues in recent years. Water resources are a main component of natural systems that might be affected by climate change. This paper characterizes water resources in several Middle Eastern countries and evaluates regional climate predictions for various scenarios using general circulation models. The country of Lebanon is selected as a case study for an in-depth investigation with potential impacts on the water budget and soil moisture as indicators. Adaptation measures are assessed, with a focus on no-regret actions in the context of local socioeconomic and environmental frameworks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a time of severe environmental problems and growing public and private expenditure to promote a sustainable society, studies on the impact of Research and Development (R&D) on environmental sustainability hardly ever exist. This study looked at how R&D promotes the attainment of environmentally sustainable goals, globally. Data at the country level was compiled from the United Nations-Sustainable Development Goals (UN-SDG) database and the World Bank, then processed and analysed using spatial techniques such as spatial merge, autofill, autocorrelation, and geographic weighted regression. Expenditure on R&D and publications in scientific journals had a positive impact on SDGs 8 and 11 for all nations. R&D expenditure on SDG 8 was higher for Southern African countries. The impact of scientific and technical journal articles was greater for Middle East countries. Also, scientific and technical journal articles had greater effects on attainment of SDG 11 in Africa. Exports of high technology from South America and Europe were important for achieving SDG 15. However, the effect of patent and trademark applications had minimal effect on achieving environmentally sustainable goals. The study recommends boosting R&D expenditure by governments and international organisations, particularly in Africa because the multiplier impact extends beyond economic development to environmental sustainability which is necessary for the continent to abate the challenges of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]