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Purpose: This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m). Methods: The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career. Results: Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5–6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3–4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%–2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males. Conclusions: Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This study investigated (1) the transition rate of elite world-class throwers, (2) the age of peak performance in either elite junior and/or elite senior athletes, and (3) if relative age effect (RAE) influences the chance of being considered elite in junior and/or senior category. Methods: The career performance trajectories of 5108 throwers (49.9% females) were extracted from the World Athletics database. The authors identified throwers who had reached the elite level (operationally defined as the World all-time top 50 ranked for each age category) in either junior and/or senior category and calculated the junior-to-senior transition rate. The age of peak performance and the RAE were also investigated. Results: The transition rate at 16 and 18 years of age was 6% and 12% in males and 16% and 24% in females, respectively. Furthermore, elite senior throwers reached their personal best later in life than elite junior throwers. The athletes of both genders considered elite in the junior category showed a large RAE. Interestingly, male athletes who reached the elite level in senior category also showed appreciable RAE. Conclusions: Only a few of the athletes who reach the top 50 in the world at 16 or 18 years of age manage to become elite senior athletes, underlining that success at the beginning of an athletic career does not predict success in the athlete's senior career. Moreover, data suggest that being relatively older may confer a benefit across the whole career of male throwers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: To quantify how many of the top 50 under-18 (U18) sprinters in the world managed to become top 50 ranked as adult competitors. The authors also described the career trajectory of athletes ranked in the top 50 during either U18 or senior category. Methods: A total of 4924 male and female athletes competing in sprint races and ranked in the International Association of Athletics Federations (now World Athletics) lists in any of the seasons between the 2000 and 2018 were included in the study. The athletes ranked in the top 50 positions of all-time lists during U18, senior, or both categories were analyzed. Results: Only 17% of the male and 21% of the female top 50 ranked U18 managed to become top 50 ranked senior athletes. The top 50 ranked senior athletes consistently produced yearly larger improvements during late adolescence and early adulthood compared with those who ranked in the top 50 at U18. Furthermore, top 50 ranked senior athletes reached their peak performance later compared with the top 50 ranked only in U18. Conclusions: This study confirms that early success in track and field is not a good predictor of success at senior level in sprinting events. The yearly performance improvements and their tracking provide the most suitable approach to identify athletes more likely to succeed as elite performers in adulthood. The authors hope that the results of this study can provide useful comparative data and reference criteria for talent-identification and -development programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative age effect (RAE) is a selection bias resulting from the interaction between the selected dates and birthdates. Nevertheless, the impact of birthdate on the junior-to-senior transition in international track and field is unclear. This study aimed to quantify the RAE's magnitude and test if birthdate affects the junior-to-senior transition rate. The birthdate and performances of 5,766 sprinters (female: 51.0%) and 5,863 jumpers (female: 45.9%) were collected. Elite athletes (operationally defined as the World's all-time Top 200, 100 and 50 athletes) were identified according to Under 18 and Senior categories. Skewed quartile distributions were observed in the Under 18 (effect size ranged = 0.15–0.10) but not in the Senior category. RAE magnitude increased according to performance level (i.e., from Top 200 to Top 50) and was higher in males than females. Relatively younger athletes showed significantly higher transition rates with a higher chance of maintaining top level in the senior category (odds ratio (OR) ~ 1.64). The probability of maintaining success was lower for sprinters than jumpers (OR ~ 0.70), influenced by decade of birth and continental place but similar for male and female athletes. Data corroborate that relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in the junior category but advantaged when transitioning to the senior category. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is not only to establish whether the relative age effect (RAE) exists in male international rugby union players, but also to investigate the impact of sociocultural influences (i.e., northern and southern hemispheres) and playing position (i.e., backs, forwards, and scrum-halves). The birth date and the playing position of 7144 senior male professional rugby players included in the rosters of the season 2020–2021 were collected from the top 10 nations of the World Rugby rankings (i.e., Argentina, Australia, England, France, Ireland, Japan, New Zealand, Scotland, South Africa, and Wales). Data were analyzed using a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to compare the observed and expected birth quarter (Q) distributions. Results showed that relatively older players were overrepresented in all the sample (p < 0.001; Q1 = 28.8% vs. Q4 = 20.3%). In players competing in both hemispheres, the RAE was weak despite a more pronounced RAE emerging for southern players. In addition, the RAE was present in backs and forwards, but inconsistent for scrum-halves. In general, the data suggest that relatively older players may be more likely to reach expertise at senior levels than their later-born peers, and that the effect was consistent in different sociocultural contexts as well as in backs and forwards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This retrospective study investigated whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove the relative age effect (RAE) from world-class junior sprinters at the beginning of their career. A total of 2,918 male and 3,029 female athletes competing in sprint races (100 m, 200 m, and 400 m) of the World Athletics lists between 2000 and 2018 were considered. Longitudinal quadratic trendline equations across ages 16–25 yrs were calculated considering athletes' exact age and respective performance. Corrective adjustment calculations from the estimated longitudinal quadratic equations were applied at 16 yrs and 17 yrs. RAE was investigated for the whole sample and top-level athletes (i.e., first Top50 and Top100) considering the uncorrected and corrected performance. Moderate to large RAE was observed in Top50 and Top100 at 16 yrs. Differently, a lower RAE was observed at 17 yrs. When re-examining the data using the corrective adjustment calculations, the RAE disappeared in all sprint events and both genders at 16 yrs, while a more equal distribution was observed at 17 yrs. Corrective adjustment procedures can remove or at least reduce the RAE in world-class sprinters. Applying simple equations based on exact age might improve the accuracy of performance evaluation and talent identification in international track and field sprint competitions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]