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Freely-available satellite data streams and the ability to process these data on cloud-computing platforms such as Google Earth Engine have made frequent, large-scale landcover mapping at high resolution a real possibility. In this paper we apply these technologies, along with machine learning, to the mapping of peatlands–a landcover class that is critical for preserving biodiversity, helping to address climate change impacts, and providing ecosystem services, e.g., carbon storage–in the Boreal Forest Natural Region of Alberta, Canada. We outline a data-driven, scientific framework that: compiles large amounts of Earth observation data sets (radar, optical, and LiDAR); examines the extracted variables for suitability in peatland modelling; optimizes model parameterization; and finally, predicts peatland occurrence across a large boreal area (397, 958 km2) of Alberta at 10 m spatial resolution (equalling 3.9 billion pixels across Alberta). The resulting peatland occurrence model shows an accuracy of 87% and a kappa statistic of 0.57 when compared to our validation data set. Differentiating peatlands from mineral wetlands achieved an accuracy of 69% and kappa statistic of 0.37. This data-driven approach is applicable at large geopolitical scales (e.g., provincial, national) for wetland and landcover inventories that support long-term, responsible resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting), significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intelligent water drop algorithm is a swarm-based metaheuristic algorithm, inspired by the characteristics of water drops in the river and the environmental changes resulting from the action of the flowing river. Since its appearance as an alternative stochastic optimization method, the algorithm has found applications in solving a wide range of combinatorial and functional optimization problems. This paper presents an improved intelligent water drop algorithm for solving multi-depot vehicle routing problems. A simulated annealing algorithm was introduced into the proposed algorithm as a local search metaheuristic to prevent the intelligent water drop algorithm from getting trapped into local minima and also improve its solution quality. In addition, some of the potential problematic issues associated with using simulated annealing that include high computational runtime and exponential calculation of the probability of acceptance criteria, are investigated. The exponential calculation of the probability of acceptance criteria for the simulated annealing based techniques is computationally expensive. Therefore, in order to maximize the performance of the intelligent water drop algorithm using simulated annealing, a better way of calculating the probability of acceptance criteria is considered. The performance of the proposed hybrid algorithm is evaluated by using 33 standard test problems, with the results obtained compared with the solutions offered by four well-known techniques from the subject literature. Experimental results and statistical tests show that the new method possesses outstanding performance in terms of solution quality and runtime consumed. In addition, the proposed algorithm is suitable for solving large-scale problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fluctuations in environmental parameters are increasingly being recognized as essential features of any habitat. The quantification of whether environmental fluctuations are prevalently predictable or unpredictable is remarkably relevant to understanding the evolutionary responses of organisms. However, when characterizing the relevant features of natural habitats, ecologists typically face two problems: (1) gathering long-term data and (2) handling the hard-won data. This paper takes advantage of the free access to long-term recordings of remote sensing data (27 years, Landsat TM/ETM+) to assess a set of environmental models for estimating environmental predictability. The case study included 20 Mediterranean saline ponds and lakes, and the focal variable was the water-surface area. This study first aimed to produce a method for accurately estimating the water-surface area from satellite images. Saline ponds can develop salt-crusted areas that make it difficult to distinguish between soil and water. This challenge was addressed using a novel pipeline that combines band ratio water indices and the short near-infrared band as a salt filter. The study then extracted the predictable and unpredictable components of variation in the water-surface area. Two different approaches, each showing variations in the parameters, were used to obtain the stochastic variation around a regular pattern with the objective of dissecting the effect of assumptions on predictability estimations. The first approach, which is based on Colwell’s predictability metrics, transforms the focal variable into a nominal one. The resulting discrete categories define the relevant variations in the water-surface area. In the second approach, we introduced General Additive Model (GAM) fitting as a new metric for quantifying predictability. Both approaches produced a wide range of predictability for the studied ponds. Some model assumptions–which are considered very different a priori–had minor effects, whereas others produced predictability estimations that showed some degree of divergence. We hypothesize that these diverging estimations of predictability reflect the effect of fluctuations on different types of organisms. The fluctuation analysis described in this manuscript is applicable to a wide variety of systems, including both aquatic and non-aquatic systems, and will be valuable for quantifying and characterizing predictability, which is essential within the expected global increase in the unpredictability of environmental fluctuations. We advocate that a priori information for organisms of interest should be used to select the most suitable metrics for estimating predictability, and we provide some guidelines for this approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective pretreatment of spectral reflectance is vital to model accuracy in soil parameter estimation. However, the classic integer derivative has some disadvantages, including spectral information loss and the introduction of high-frequency noise. In this paper, the fractional order derivative algorithm was applied to the pretreatment and partial least squares regression (PLSR) was used to assess the clay content of desert soils. Overall, 103 soil samples were collected from the Ebinur Lake basin in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region of China, and used as data sets for calibration and validation. Following laboratory measurements of spectral reflectance and clay content, the raw spectral reflectance and absorbance data were treated using the fractional derivative order from the 0.0 to the 2.0 order (order interval: 0.2). The ratio of performance to deviation (RPD), determinant coefficients of calibration (), root mean square errors of calibration (RMSEC), determinant coefficients of prediction (), and root mean square errors of prediction (RMSEP) were applied to assess the performance of predicting models. The results showed that models built on the fractional derivative order performed better than when using the classic integer derivative. Comparison of the predictive effects of 22 models for estimating clay content, calibrated by PLSR, showed that those models based on the fractional derivative 1.8 order of spectral reflectance ( = 0.907, RMSEC = 0.425%, = 0.916, RMSEP = 0.364%, and RPD = 2.484 ≥ 2.000) and absorbance ( = 0.888, RMSEC = 0.446%, = 0.918, RMSEP = 0.383% and RPD = 2.511 ≥ 2.000) were most effective. Furthermore, they performed well in quantitative estimations of the clay content of soils in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constrained ordination methods aims at finding an environmental gradient along which the species abundances are maximally separated. The species response functions, which describe the expected abundance as a function of the environmental score, are according to the ecological fundamental niche theory only meaningful if they are bell-shaped. Many classical model-based ordination methods, however, use quadratic regression models without imposing the bell-shape and thus allowing for meaningless U-shaped response functions. The analysis output (e.g. a biplot) may therefore be potentially misleading and the conclusions are prone to errors. In this paper we present a log-likelihood ratio criterion with a penalisation term to enforce more bell-shaped response shapes. We report the results of a simulation study and apply our method to metagenomics data from microbial ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]