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Declining land productivity and increasing land and food scarcity, amidst high population growth have precipitated the need for intensification of crop production. Sustainable land management technologies (SLMTs) have been suggested as a way to support the intensification process. In Uganda, agricultural advisory services (AAS) geared towards improved adoption of the SLMTs are provided, and farmers can access AAS from diverse sources, with the possibility of accessing from single or multiple sources. This study attempts to identify and prioritize the drivers of farmers’ access to (single/multiple) sources of AAS and determine the impact of access to these sources of AAS on the adoption of SLMT, and crop productivity. The study uses cross-sectional data collected from 435 households in the southwestern highlands of Uganda, in Kisoro and Kabale districts. The multinomial endogenous switching regression model combined with an endogenous switching regression model was used to analyse the data. Results indicate that both single and multiple sources of AAS have a positive effect on adoption of SLMTs and crop productivity, with the latter having a positive effect on the adoption of more SLMTs, while it seems to reduce the adoption of some other SLMTs. Similarly, accessing AAS from multiple sources has a higher positive impact on crop productivity, when compared to no access, but a lower impact when compared to access to a single source of AAS. These results suggest that access to multiple sources of AAS has positive impacts, but there are possible inherent challenges in the way it is implemented; lack of synchronisation of the messages given to the farmers, and the top-down approaches used to disseminate knowledge on SLMTs by some of the AAS providers may confound the possibly higher benefits of access to multiple sources of AAS. This study points out the need for policy to consider the advantages of having a streamlined agricultural extension system, with coordinated efforts from all agricultural advisory service providers and stakeholders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractThis study examined the impact of rural out-migration on the poverty of migrant-sending households by applying the new economics labor migration theory as a theoretical framework, and the multinomial endogenous switching regression as an analytical model in southern Ethiopia. Data were gathered from 415 sample rural households using stratified random sampling in the year 2021. The cost of basic needs approach and the Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (FGT) method were used to establish the poverty line and create the poverty indices, respectively. The average annual food and non-food poverty lines are Birr 8997.52 and 2249.38 per adult equivalent. The incidence, depth, and severity of general poverty are 39.76, 10.11, and 3.55%, respectively, while the incidence, depth, and severity of food poverty are 34.70, 9.47, and 3.58%, respectively. When compared to other households, households with international migrants have a lower incidence, depth, and severity of poverty. The regression result of the multinomial endogenous switching model showed that international migration increases consumption per adult equivalent of households by 29.8% and is significant at the 1% level. Participation in rural-urban and international migration increases kilocalories per adult equivalent per day by 7.4 and 36.4%, respectively, in migrant-sending rural households. The findings support the new economics labor migration theory’s remittance hypothesis. Promoting access to land, capital, farm and non-farm employment, irrigation, family planning, and basic public services would improve rural household welfare and reduce the current wave of rural out-migration in Southern Ethiopia.

This study examines the impact of the row planting method on maize productivity and risk exposure using panel datasets from Ethiopia. A flexible moment-based production function is fitted to capture the expected yield, yield variance, and exposure to downside risk. A Mundlak–Chamberlain approach is combined with a switching regression treatment effects model to account for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity. The study shows that adopters of the row planting method significantly reduced exposure to downside risk while increasing expected yield. The analysis also identified some household and environmental conditions that affect the gain from the row planting method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the impact of rural out-migration on the poverty of migrant-sending households by applying the new economics labor migration theory as a theoretical framework, and the multinomial endogenous switching regression as an analytical model in southern Ethiopia. Data were gathered from 415 sample rural households using stratified random sampling in the year 2021. The cost of basic needs approach and the Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (FGT) method were used to establish the poverty line and create the poverty indices, respectively. The average annual food and non-food poverty lines are Birr 8997.52 and 2249.38 per adult equivalent. The incidence, depth, and severity of general poverty are 39.76, 10.11, and 3.55%, respectively, while the incidence, depth, and severity of food poverty are 34.70, 9.47, and 3.58%, respectively. When compared to other households, households with international migrants have a lower incidence, depth, and severity of poverty. The regression result of the multinomial endogenous switching model showed that international migration increases consumption per adult equivalent of households by 29.8% and is significant at the 1% level. Participation in rural-urban and international migration increases kilocalories per adult equivalent per day by 7.4 and 36.4%, respectively, in migrant-sending rural households. The findings support the new economics labor migration theory's remittance hypothesis. Promoting access to land, capital, farm and non-farm employment, irrigation, family planning, and basic public services would improve rural household welfare and reduce the current wave of rural out-migration in Southern Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a robust method for dealing with switching regression problems. Regression models with switch-points are broadly employed in diverse areas. Many traditional methods for switching regressions can falter in the presence of outliers or heavy-tailed distributions because of the modeling assumptions of Gaussian errors. The outlier corruption of datasets is often unavoidable. When misapplied, the Gaussian assumption can lead to incorrect inference making. The Laplace distribution is known as a longer-tailed alternative to the normal distributions and connected with the robust least absolute deviation regression criterion. We propose a robust switching regression model of Laplace distributed errors. To advance robustness, we extend the Laplace switching model to a fuzzy class model and create a robust algorithm named FCL through the fuzzy classification maximum likelihood procedure. The robustness properties and the advance of resistance against high-leverage outliers are discussed. Simulations and sensitivity analyses illustrate the effectiveness and superiority of the proposed algorithm. The experimental results indicate that FCL is much more robust than the EM-based algorithm. Furthermore, the Laplace-based algorithm is more time-saving than the t-based procedure. Diverse real-world applications demonstrate the practicality of the proposed approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coronavirus disease 2019 is a deadly disease that globally infected millions of people. It enormously increases economies national healthcare bills and death tolls that deprive the global world. The negative environmental externality further strains the country's healthcare sustainability agenda, causing to decline in global income. The study evaluates the different socio-economic and environmental factors to assess ecological complexity in a large, cross-country data set that includes 60 countries. The study used the following variables for estimation, i.e., coronavirus cases, cost of carbon emissions, per capita economic growth, foreign direct investment inflows, and population growth. Markov Switching Regression, VAR Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis applied on the given dataset. The results show that the COVID-19 cases have a rebound effect on environmental quality. Economic activities started after a lifted lockdown, and unsustainable production and consumption led to a deteriorating natural environment. The U-shaped relationship is found between carbon pollution and per capita income. On the other hand, the inverted U-shaped relationship is found between coronavirus cases and carbon pollution. The foreign direct investment inflows and population density increases carbon pollution. The study concludes that stringent environmental policies and incentive-based regulations help to minimize coronavirus cases and mitigate carbon pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper assesses the potential impact of the adoption of improved cassava varieties on yields of smallholder farmers. Agricultural intensification is associated with increasing yields per hectare through the use of improved varieties. Studies have established the relationship between adoption and yield, yet this relationship is understudied in the cross-national literature. Using cross-sectional data collected from a randomly selected sample of 1,176 farmers dispersed across Ghana and employing an endogenous switching regression model, the causal impact of improved variety adoption was estimated. Our results revealed that adoption decisions were conditioned by age, extension access, extension visits, awareness and farm size. Also, adoption had a significant positive impact on cassava yields. Adopters had 18 t/ha increases in yields and non-adopters should they have adopted had increases of 10 t/ha. Strategies to resource research extension linkage system to promote and create awareness about the existing improved cassava varieties for increased adoption are recommended.

The paper assesses the potential impact of the adoption of improved cassava varieties on yields of smallholder farmers. Agricultural intensification is associated with increasing yields per hectare through the use of improved varieties. Studies have established the relationship between adoption and yield, yet this relationship is understudied in the cross-national literature. Using cross-sectional data collected from a randomly selected sample of 1,176 farmers dispersed across Ghana and employing an endogenous switching regression model, the causal impact of improved variety adoption was estimated. Our results revealed that adoption decisions were conditioned by age, extension access, extension visits, awareness and farm size. Also, adoption had a significant positive impact on cassava yields. Adopters had 18 t/ha increases in yields and non-adopters should they have adopted had increases of 10 t/ha. Strategies to resource research extension linkage system to promote and create awareness about the existing improved cassava varieties for increased adoption are recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Stochastic plateau production functions provide improved fertilizer recommendations based on multi-year agronomic experiments where weather and other stochastic variables change over time. This research assesses the profitability of no-tillage corn production in northeastern Colorado and determines economically optimal nitrogen fertilizer rates. It also proposes an alternative parameterization of the linear response stochastic plateau model which provides a robustness check against traditional parameterizations. Results show the current use of nitrogen fertilizer in the area exceeds estimated economically optimal levels. This suggests that a reduction in nitrogen use could increase expected profits and simultaneously reduce environmental costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the importance of financial constraints for firm investment by looking at the relationship between investment expenditures and proceeds from voluntary asset sales. Asset sales provide a cleaner indicator of liquidity than cash flows since it appears not to be positively correlated with investment opportunities. The cross-sectional differences in firm investment are examined using an endogenous switching regression model with unknown sample separation. We find that cash obtained from asset sales is a significant determinant of corporate investment and that the sensitivity of investment to proceeds from asset sales is significantly stronger for firms that are likely to be financially constrained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an efficient version of test for the hypothesis that education plays a key role in influencing agricultural productivity based on a switching regression model. In the present setting, farmers’ ability to deal with disequilibria is allowed to change with education, which thereby provides a concrete evidence of the effect of education on selected East Asian production agriculture. The results suggest that there exists a threshold for education to be influential to agricultural productivity change when the selected East-Asian economies are categoried by their degree of economic development. Moreover, for the group of economies where education constitutes a major determinant of productivity growth in both the technological progression and/or stagnation/recession regimes, the effect of education is found to vary from economy to economy and from regime to regime. Generally speaking, however, those East-Asian economies tend to reach their turning point in short time despite of the mentioned differences. This result therefore leads to important policy implications concerning giving an impetus to human capital investment in the agriculture sector.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate and analyze the impact of adoption of soil conservation practices (SCPs) on the technical efficiency of smallholder rice producers in Central China. We address self-selection bias and unobserved heterogeneity problems by estimating a switching regression model for the adoption decision function and separate stochastic production frontiers for SCP and Conventional farms while allowing for production inefficiency. SCP farms exhibit statistically higher average technical efficiency than Conventional farms. Education, extension services, membership in cooperatives, access to credit, and alternative income sources are positively and significantly associated with technical efficiency for both groups. Conventional farms display higher partial output elasticity for land, while only SCP farms show significant elasticity for capital. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Traditional ranching farming provides society with meat, agricultural products, leather, and hides in an economic procedure through livestock grazing on rangelands. Based on recent research, traditional ranching farming has a crucial role and a significant contribution to the employment of nomadic households. According to recent rangeland degradation, it is important to pay attention to the nomadic livelihoods based on the rangeland environment and the household economy. Global implications for the study of pastoral livelihoods are based on maintaining rangelands and improving household welfare (in terms of earnings). For this purpose, a sustainable livelihood framework based on livelihood strategies and natural and unnatural capitals was applied. The sample size of 393 households from 24 nomadic residences was selected based on the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Data were collected in the form of face-to-face interviews with sample nomads in 2018. The results of switching regression models for analyzing the counterfactual effect indicated that nomadic households who adopted servicing, agriculture, and diversification strategies caused the improvement of rangeland sustainability at 3%, 7%, and 4% and the reduction of household poverty at 4%, 7%, and 5%, respectively. In this regard, increasing human capital and financial capital have significant effects on rejecting ranching strategies and selecting agriculture and diversification strategies. • This study aimed to evaluate the rangeland sustainability based on nomads' livelihood. • Increasing human and financial capital led to rejecting ranching strategy and selecting agriculture/diversification strategies. • The non-adoption of the livelihood strategies led to poverty when households followed the ranching strategy. • Increasing social capital had no significant effects on adopting livelihood strategies • The policy of monitoring the livestock units is essential to prevent illegal grazing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we study the restricting factors leading to the disequilibrium condition in the Iranian market for bank’s credit using the switching regression model for the period 1353-1383 (1974-2004). The results of our study show that the real banking interest rate, real money supply, real banks reserves in central bank, and monetary base have significant relationship with credit supply. Also, the estimation of credit demand shows a positive relationship between the lag of the real deposits and credit demand. The interesting point is the insignificant relationship between the credit demand and the banking interest rate in the study period, but a high significant relationship between supply and the banking interest rate . This implies that the restricting factor in the credit market is the supply side which has always been less than the demand. An estimation of the market clearing banking interest rates in comparison with the real observed interest rates in recent years also confirms the result .

Demand modelling of energy and transport incorporate interconnected decision variables, which are either discrete or continuous. After forty years, from McFadden multinomial logit model and incorporating it to Heckman endogenous simultaneous equation, there is an opportunity to determine the parameters of interconnected decisions simultaneously. These models are bounded by the utility theory. Now these models have matured, and their empirical aspects revealed. In this study, the pioneering works on discrete-continuous models that have been developed in the field of energy and transportation have been reviewed with a view of proposing new development to these models. These models theoretically are based on two approaches; McFadden indirect utility function and Gorman polar functional form of utility structures. In both approaches, the models are estimated by maximum likelihood procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An endogenous switching regression model is used to examine how meal planner health knowledge affects dietary fat intake. Ethnicity, income, meal planner age, being on a low-fat diet, and other health awareness behaviors had significant effects on health knowledge. After controlling for differences in household and meal planner characteristics, intake of total and saturated fat was found to depend on health knowledge status.

This paper investigates the temporal stability of the relationship between the Deutschmark/US dollar exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals. We use monthly data from 1975:01 to 2007:12. Applying a novel time-varying coefficient estimation approach, we come up with some interesting properties of our empirical model. Firstly, there is no stable long-run equilibrium relationship among fundamentals and exchange rates, since the breakdown of Bretton Woods. Secondly, there are no recurring regimes, i.e. across different regimes, either the coefficient values for the same fundamentals differ or the significance differs. Thirdly, there is no regime into which no fundamentals enter. Fourthly, the deviations resulting from the stepwise cointegrating relationship act as a significant error-correction mechanism. In other words, we are able to show that fundamentals play an important role in determining the exchange rate, but their impact differs significantly across different subperiods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine whether subsidies for conservation on working farmland induce farmers to expand cultivation on more vulnerable land, potentially offsetting reductions in environmental spillovers, using a switching regression model with endogenous switching and censored endogenous variables applied to Maryland farm-level data. We find no indication that cost share awards are targeted toward water quality improvements. Receipt of cost sharing increases conservation practice adoption but not the shares of land allocated to conservation, implying little adverse selection in awards. Cost sharing decreases the share of land allocated to vegetative cover, so that environmental quality improvements from conservation are likely offset to some degree. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In a regression analysis, it is assumed that the observations come from a single class in a data cluster and the simple functional relationship between the dependent and independent variables can be expressed using the general model; . However; a data cluster may consist of a combination of observations that have different distributions that are derived from different clusters. When faced with issues of estimating a regression model for fuzzy inputs that have been derived from different distributions, this regression model has been termed the ‘switching regression model’ and it is expressed with . Here indicates the class number of each independent variable and is indicative of the number of independent variables [J.R. Jang, ANFIS: Adaptive-network-based fuzzy inference system, IEEE Transaction on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 23 (3) (1993) 665–685; M. Michel, Fuzzy clustering and switching regression models using ambiguity and distance rejects, Fuzzy Sets and Systems 122 (2001) 363–399; E.Q. Richard, A new approach to estimating switching regressions, Journal of the American Statistical Association 67 (338) (1972) 306–310]. In this study, adaptive networks have been used to construct a model that has been formed by gathering obtained models. There are methods that suggest the class numbers of independent variables heuristically. Alternatively, in defining the optimal class number of independent variables, the use of suggested validity criterion for fuzzy clustering has been aimed. In the case that independent variables have an exponential distribution, an algorithm has been suggested for defining the unknown parameter of the switching regression model and for obtaining the estimated values after obtaining an optimal membership function, which is suitable for exponential distribution. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Objectives. To investigate the effects of lifestyles, demographics, and dietary behavior on overweight and obesity. Data Source. Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals 1994–1996, U.S. Department of Agriculture. Study Design. We developed a three-regime switching regression model to examine the effects of lifestyle, dietary behavior, and sociodemographic factors on body mass index (BMI) by weight category and accommodating endogeneity of exercise and food intake to avoid simultaneous equation bias. Marginal effects are calculated to assess the impacts of explanatory variables on the probabilities of weight categories and BMI levels. Principal Findings. Weight categories and exercise are found to be endogenous. Lifestyle, dietary behavior, social status, and other sociodemographic factors affect BMI differently across weight categories. Education, employment, and income have strong impacts on the likelihood of overweight and obesity. Exercise reduces the probabilities of being overweight and obese and the level of BMI among overweight individuals. Conclusion. Health education programs can be targeted at individuals susceptible to overweight and obesity. Social status variables, along with genetic and geographic factors, such as region, urbanization, age, and race, can be used to pinpoint these individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Focusing on the investment motive for volunteer work, this paper examines whether volunteer work has an economic payoff upon the labor market in France. Using a switching regression model with endogenous switching, we find that in the public sector volunteers receive a positive wage premium that does not influence their involvement, while the premium is negative in the private sector. We also find little evidence of the presence of alternative types of returns on the labor market, such as employment mobility or entry into the labor market. Our findings are more consistent with a consumption motive and we suggest that volunteering is carried out with a relational purpose. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In this paper, we propose a sequential method for determining the number of regimes in threshold autoregressive models. The proposed method relies on the superconsistency of sequential threshold estimates and uses general linearity tests to determine the number of thresholds. A simulation study is performed in order to find out the finite-sample properties of our procedure and to compare it with two other procedures available in the literature. We find that our method works reasonably well for both single and multiple threshold models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This study formalizes and empirically tests the conjecture that the discovery of large silver reserves in its American colonies during the 1540s triggered in Spain a case of Dutch disease, diverting factors of production to non-traded goods industries and undermining the Spanish comparative advantages in the Early Modern Age. I develop an open-economy model to mimic the economic conditions in Imperial Spain. I then present new consumption weights built from primary sources, which I combine with existing price data to produce price indexes for traded and non-traded goods; these are then used to test the implications of the model in a Markov-switching regression framework. I identify a strong and persistent increase in the relative price of non-traded goods coinciding with the silver discoveries, lasting for almost three decades and reversing itself only after the 1575 and 1579 crown bankruptcies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Prior work in marketing has suggested that advertising threshold effects--levels beneath which there is essentially no sales response--are rarely encountered in practice. Because advertising policies settle into effective ranges through early trial and error, thresholds cannot be observed directly, and arguments for their existence must be based primarily on a 'statistical footprint,' that is, on relative fits of a range of model types. To detect possible threshold effects, we formulate a switching regression model with two 'regimes,' in only one of which advertising is effective. Mediating the switch between the two regimes is a logistic function of category-specific dynamic variables (e.g., order of entry, time in market, number of competitors) and advertising levels, nesting a variety of alternative formulations, among them both standard concave and S-shaped responses. A sequence of comparisons among parametrically related models strongly suggests: that threshold effects exist; that market share response to advertising is not necessarily globally concave; that superior fit cannot be attributed to model flexibility alone; and that dynamic, environmental, competitive, and brand-specific factors can influence advertising effectiveness. These effects are evident in two evolving durables categories (SUVs and minivans), although not in one mature, nondurable category (liquid detergent) studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As policymakers consider expanding insurance coverage for individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), it is useful to ask if insurance has any affect on health outcomes and, if so, whether its magnitude has changed with recent efficacious but expensive treatments. By using data from a nationally representative cohort of HIV-infected (HIV+) persons receiving regular medical care, we estimate the impact of insurance on mortality in this population. A naïve single-equation model confirms the perverse result found by others in the literature—that insurance increases the probability of death for HIV+ patients. We attribute this finding to a correlation between unobserved health status and insurance status in the mortality equation for two reasons. First, the eligibility rules for Medicaid and Medicare require HIV+ patients to demonstrate a disability, almost always defined as advanced disease, to qualify. Second, if unobserved health status is the cause of the positive correlation, then including measures of HIV+ disease as controls should mitigate the effect. Including measures of immune function (CD4 lymphocyte counts) reduces the effect size by approximately 50%, although it does not change sign. To deal with this correlation, we develop a two-equation parametric model of both insurance and mortality. The effect of insurance on mortality is identified through the judicious use of state policy variables as instruments (variables related to insurance status but not mortality, except through insurance). The results from this model indicate that insurance does have a beneficial effect on outcomes, lowering the probability of 6-month mortality by 71% at baseline and 85% at follow-up. The larger effect at followup can be attributed to the recent introduction of effective therapies for HIV infection, which have magnified the returns to insurance for HIV+ patients (as measured by mortality rates). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In recent years, manufacturers have become increasingly disposed toward the use of sales promotions, often at the cost of advertising. Yet the long-term implications of these changes for brand profitability remain unclear. In this paper, we seek to offer insights into this important issue. We consider the questions of i) whether it is more desirable to advertise or promote, ii) whether it is better to use frequent, shallow promotions or infrequent, deep promotions, and iii) how changes in regular prices affect sales relative to increases in price promotions. Additional insights regarding brand equity, the relative magnitude of short- and long-term effects, and the decomposition of advertising and promotion elasticities across choice and quantity decisions are obtained.To address these points, we develop a heteroscedastic, varying-parameter joint probit choice and regression quantity model. Our approach allows consumers responses to short-term marketing activities to change in response to changes in marketing actions over the long term. We also accommodate the possibility of competitive reactions to policy changes of a brand. The model is estimated for a consumer packaged good category by using over eight years of panel data. The resulting parameters enable us to assess the effects of changes in advertising and promotion policies on sales and profits.Our results show that, in the long term, advertising has a positive effect on "brand equity" while promotions have a negative effect. Furthermore, we find price promotion elasticities to be larger than regular price elasticities in the short term, but smaller than regular price elasticities when long-term effects are considered. Consistent with previous research, we also find that most of the effect of a price cut is manifested in consumers' brand choice decisions in the short term, but when long-term effects are again considered, this result no longer holds. Last, we estimate that the long-term effects of p... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An endogenous switching regression model is used to examine how meal planner health knowledge affects dietary fat intake. Ethnicity, income, meal planner age, being on a low-fat diet, and other health awareness behaviors had significant effects on health knowledge. After controlling for differences in household and meal planner characteristics, intake of total and saturated fat was found to depend on health knowledge status. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a very tractable approach to estimating parameters for mixtures of normal distributions. The analyst proceeds as if, in addition to the data, he or she had observed some pseudo data points drawn from each distribution whose values reflect his or her priors. The approach eliminates the singularities associated with maximum likelihood estimation and offers guidance for choosing among alternative local maximum likelihood estimates. Monte Carlo analysis establishes its consistent potential to improve mean squared errors. Data sets on which maximum likelihood estimation has presented difficulties are shown to be readily analyzed with the quasi-Bayesian procedure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article is concerned with the endogeneity of air conditioning appliance ownership in the consumption of electricity by time of day (TOD). Both TOD consumption and air conditioning appliance ownership depend on temperature level and on household responsiveness to temperature variation, as well as on other measured household characteristics. The article presents an appropriate econometric methodology and applies it to obtain estimates and perform tests based on data from Southern California Edison's Residential TOD Pricing Experiment, The authors emphasize the implications for estimated consumption price elasticities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1953, many poor countries had not yet approached the demographic transition. Accordingly, income generally had a positive impact on fertility in poor countries, while it has a negative impact today. Easterlin's supply-demand framework offers an explanation for this nonlinearity by attributing the positive relationship to Malthusian (or "supply") factors and the negative relationship to "demand" factors. This paper estimates Easterlin's supply-demand framework by switching regressions in a panel data set of 152 countries from 1953 to 1998. The technique allows identifying several factors affecting the Malthusian constraint and the demand for children, such as income, the source of income, urbanization, religion and the medical environment. It is found that a combination of higher GDP per capita, a decrease in the infant death rate and an increase in education explain a substantial part of the reversal of the relationship between income and net fertility over the sample period.