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In this paper, a 2-stage cascaded deep learning framework, Port Wave Prediction Network (PWPNet), is proposed for real-time prediction of significant wave height (SWH) distribution in a port. The PWP-out model of the first stage, predicting port-entrance wave parameters, utilizes three branches, the first branch using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) module to learn the temporal dependencies of time sequences of port-entrance wave parameters, the second branch using Wave and Wind field Feature Extraction (WWFE) modules, composed of a residual network with spatial and channel attention, to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of outside-port 2D wave and wind field data, the third branch using multi-scale time encoding to capture the periodic characteristics of waves and wind. The PWP-in model of the second stage, estimating the in-port SWH distribution, uses port-entrance wave parameters based on a customized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and takes PWP-out's output as its input. A comparison of the performance of PWP-out and mainstream machine learning models including LSTM, GRU, BPNN, SVR, ELM, and RF at Hambantota Port shows that PWP-out outperforms all other models regarding medium-term (25–48 h), med–long-term (49–72 h), and long-term (73–96 h) predictions, and ablation experiments proved the effectiveness of the three branches. Furthermore, the performance comparison of our PWPNet and other 2-stage models of LSTM, GRU, BPNN, SVR, ELM, and RF cascaded with PWP-in shows that PWPNet outperforms those cascaded models for medium-term to long-term predictions of SWH distribution in a port. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep learning methods have excellent prospects for application in wave forecasting research. This study employed the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) algorithm to predict the South China Sea (SCS) significant wave height (SWH). Three prediction models were established to investigate the influences of setting different parameters and using multiple training data on the forecasting effects. Compared with the SWH data from the China–France Ocean Satellite (CFOSAT), the SWH of WAVEWATCH III (WWIII) from the pacific islands ocean observing system are accurate enough to be used as training data for the ConvLSTM-based SWH prediction model. Model A was preliminarily established by only using the SWH from WWIII as the training data, and 20 sensitivity experiments were carried out to investigate the influences of different parameter settings on the forecasting effect of Model A. The experimental results showed that Model A has the best forecasting effect when using three years of training data and three hourly input data. With the same parameter settings as the best prediction performance Model A, Model B and C were also established by using more different training data. Model B used the wind shear velocity and SWH as training and input data. When making a 24-h SWH forecast, compared with Model A, the root mean square error (RMSE) of Model B is decreased by 17.6%, the correlation coefficient (CC) is increased by 2.90%, and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is reduced by 12.2%. Model C used the SWH, wind shear velocity, wind and wave direction as training and input data. When making a 24-h SWH forecast, compared with Model A, the RMSE of Model C decreased by 19.0%, the CC increased by 2.65%, and the MAPE decreased by 14.8%. As the performance of the ConvLSTM-based prediction model mainly rely on the SWH training data. All the ConvLSTM-based prediction models show a greater RMSE in the nearshore area than that in the deep area of SCS and also show a greater RMSE during the period of typhoon transit than that without typhoon. Considering the wind shear velocity, wind, and wave direction also used as training data will improve the performance of SWH prediction.

• A novel combined prediction system for SWH prediction is proposed. • Developed an integrated feature extraction method. • Multi-criteria decision-making method is introduced to select sub-models. • A multi-objective homogeneous nuclear molecular optimization is proposed. • A hybrid kernel density estimation method is developed. Accurate prediction of significant wave height is paramount for the effective design, operation, and maintenance of wave energy converters. However, current research falls short in achieving precise and stable point predictions, along with comprehensive uncertainty analysis of significant wave height. To address this gap, this study presents a comprehensive significant wave height combined prediction system. This integrated system encompasses outlier detection utilizing Autoencoders, sophisticated feature engineering, a multi-criteria decision-based model selection methodology, a multi-objective homogeneous nuclear molecular optimization algorithm, and a hybrid kernel density estimation technique. To tackle the critical issue of model selection within ensemble prediction, we introduce a multi-criteria compromise solution ranking algorithm known as VIKOR for the selection of sub-models. Additionally, a novel multi-objective homogeneous nuclear molecular optimization algorithm is proposed, which incorporates joint opposing selection and an elite retention strategy to effectively manage multiple objectives simultaneously, yielding Pareto optimal solutions for combining weights. Furthermore, a hybrid kernel density estimation approach is developed, surpassing previous methods reliant on a single kernel function and fixed bandwidth, thereby achieving a more precise fit to the distribution of wave height data. The effectiveness of the proposed model is rigorously evaluated using wave height datasets from three distinct locations. The experimental results convincingly demonstrate that the significant wave height combined prediction system outperforms existing solutions, excelling in both point and interval predictions of significant wave height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, a 2-stage cascaded deep learning framework, Port Wave Prediction Network (PWPNet), is proposed for real-time prediction of significant wave height (SWH) distribution in a port. The PWP-out model of the first stage, predicting port-entrance wave parameters, utilizes three branches, the first branch using a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) module to learn the temporal dependencies of time sequences of port-entrance wave parameters, the second branch using Wave and Wind field Feature Extraction (WWFE) modules, composed of a residual network with spatial and channel attention, to capture spatiotemporal characteristics of outside-port 2D wave and wind field data, the third branch using multi-scale time encoding to capture the periodic characteristics of waves and wind. The PWP-in model of the second stage, estimating the in-port SWH distribution, uses port-entrance wave parameters based on a customized Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and takes PWP-out’s output as its input. A comparison of the performance of PWP-out and mainstream machine learning models including LSTM, GRU, BPNN, SVR, ELM, and RF at Hambantota Port shows that PWP-out outperforms all other models regarding medium-term (25–48 h), med–long-term (49–72 h), and long-term (73–96 h) predictions, and ablation experiments proved the effectiveness of the three branches. Furthermore, the performance comparison of our PWPNet and other 2-stage models of LSTM, GRU, BPNN, SVR, ELM, and RF cascaded with PWP-in shows that PWPNet outperforms those cascaded models for medium-term to long-term predictions of SWH distribution in a port.

Significant wave height (SWH) prediction plays an important role in marine engineering areas such as fishery, exploration, power generation, and ocean transportation. For long-term forecasting of a specific location, classical numerical model wave height forecasting methods often require detailed climatic data and incur considerable calculation costs, which are often impractical in emergencies. In addition, how to capture and use the dynamic correlation between multiple variables is also a major research challenge for multivariate SWH prediction. To explore a new method for predicting SWH, this paper proposes a deep neural network model for multivariate time series SWH prediction—namely, CLTS-Net. In this study, the sea surface wind and wave height in the ERA5 dataset of the relevant points P1, P2, and P3 from 2011 to 2018 were used as input information to train the model and evaluate the model’s SWH prediction performance. The results show that the correlation coefficients (R) of CLTS-Net are 0.99 and 0.99, respectively, in the 24 h and 48 h SWH forecasts at point P1 along the coast. Compared with the current mainstream artificial intelligence-based SWH solutions, it is much higher than ANN (0.79, 0.70), RNN (0.82, 0.83), LSTM (0.93, 0.91), and Bi-LSTM (0.95, 0.94). Point P3 is located in the deep sea. In the 24 h and 48 h SWH forecasts, the R of CLTS-Net is 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, which are much higher than ANN (0.71, 0.72), RNN (0.85, 0.78), LSTM (0.85, 0.78), and Bi-LSTM (0.93, 0.93). Especially in the 72 h SWH forecast, when other methods have too large errors and have lost their practical application value, the R of CLTS-Net at P1, P2, and P3 can still reach 0.81, 0.71, and 0.98. The results also show that CLTS-Net can capture the short-term and long-term dependencies of data, so as to accurately predict long-term SWH, and has wide applicability in different sea areas.

Accurate significant wave height (Hs) prediction is crucial for marine renewable energy development. The hybrid models combining multi-resolution analysis techniques such as empirical mode decomposition and wavelet transform with intelligence algorithm have flourished in Hs forecasting. However, these hybrid models cannot fit multivariable input mode well. In this study, a novel multivariable hybrid model is proposed. The improved complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (ICEEMDAN) and recurrence quantification analysis (RQA) were integrated as the deterministic and stochastic components decomposition (DSD) method. Then three machine learning models was integrated with DSD method as hybrid models, respectively. For more sufficient forecasting information, wind speed (Ws), wind direction (Wd) and Hs were adopted as inputs to construct multivariable hybrid models. The forecasting experiment was benchmarked with those from univariate hybrid models, multivariable single models and univariate single models. Three buoy-measured datasets were utilized for validation. Results revealed the positive effect of wind data on long-term prediction and the improvement to prediction by the DSD method. Benefiting from the advantages of both, multivariable hybrid models outperformed other benchmark models. Among them, the multivariable hybrid model based on long short-term memory (LSTM) network, DSD-LSTM-m, achieved the best forecasting performance. • A multivariable hybrid model for significant wave height forecasting is proposed. • The influence of multivariable input was revealed. • The characteristic of multivariable and univariate hybrid model was analyzed. • Comprehensive tests on various scenarios were performed for model verification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Significant wave height (SWH) prediction plays an important role in marine engineering areas such as fishery, exploration, power generation, and ocean transportation. For long-term forecasting of a specific location, classical numerical model wave height forecasting methods often require detailed climatic data and incur considerable calculation costs, which are often impractical in emergencies. In addition, how to capture and use the dynamic correlation between multiple variables is also a major research challenge for multivariate SWH prediction. To explore a new method for predicting SWH, this paper proposes a deep neural network model for multivariate time series SWH prediction—namely, CLTS-Net. In this study, the sea surface wind and wave height in the ERA5 dataset of the relevant points P1, P2, and P3 from 2011 to 2018 were used as input information to train the model and evaluate the model's SWH prediction performance. The results show that the correlation coefficients (R) of CLTS-Net are 0.99 and 0.99, respectively, in the 24 h and 48 h SWH forecasts at point P1 along the coast. Compared with the current mainstream artificial intelligence-based SWH solutions, it is much higher than ANN (0.79, 0.70), RNN (0.82, 0.83), LSTM (0.93, 0.91), and Bi-LSTM (0.95, 0.94). Point P3 is located in the deep sea. In the 24 h and 48 h SWH forecasts, the R of CLTS-Net is 0.97 and 0.98, respectively, which are much higher than ANN (0.71, 0.72), RNN (0.85, 0.78), LSTM (0.85, 0.78), and Bi-LSTM (0.93, 0.93). Especially in the 72 h SWH forecast, when other methods have too large errors and have lost their practical application value, the R of CLTS-Net at P1, P2, and P3 can still reach 0.81, 0.71, and 0.98. The results also show that CLTS-Net can capture the short-term and long-term dependencies of data, so as to accurately predict long-term SWH, and has wide applicability in different sea areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]