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As part of a project aimed at exploring the use of next-generation high-performance computing technologies for numerical weather prediction, we have ported two physics modules from the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) to Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) and obtained accelerations of up to 10× relative to a comparable multi-core CPU. The physics parameterizations accelerated in this work are the aerosol-aware Thompson microphysics (TH) scheme and the Grell–Freitas (GF) cumulus convection scheme. Microphysics schemes are among the most time-consuming physics parameterizations, second to only radiative process schemes, and our results show better acceleration for the TH scheme than the GF scheme. Multi-GPU implementations of the schemes show acceptable weak scaling in a single node with 8 GPUs, and perfect weak scaling on multiple nodes using one GPU per node. The lack of inter-node communication for column physics parameterizations contributes to their scalability, however, physics parameterizations are run along with dynamics, so the overall multi-GPU performance is often governed by the latter. In the context of optimizing CCPP physics modules, our observations underscore that the extensive use of automatic arrays within inner subroutines hampers GPU performance due to serialized memory allocations. We have used the OpenACC directive programming language for this work because it allows for easy porting of large amounts of code and makes code maintenance more manageable compared to low-level languages like CUDA and OpenCL. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Subgrid‐scale processes, such as atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), play a pivotal role in shaping the Earth's climate but cannot be explicitly resolved in climate models due to limitations on resolution. Instead, subgrid‐scale parameterizations are used to capture their effects. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising approach to learn parameterizations. In this study, we explore uncertainties associated with a ML parameterization for atmospheric GWs. Focusing on the uncertainties in the training process (parametric uncertainty), we use an ensemble of neural networks to emulate an existing GW parameterization. We estimate both offline uncertainties in raw NN output and online uncertainties in climate model output, after the neural networks are coupled. We find that online parametric uncertainty contributes a significant source of uncertainty in climate model output that must be considered when introducing NN parameterizations. This uncertainty quantification provides valuable insights into the reliability and robustness of ML‐based GW parameterizations, thus advancing our understanding of their potential applications in climate modeling. Plain Language Summary: Climate models are unable to resolve processes that vary on length and time scales smaller than the model resolution and timestep. For example, atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), which are waves created when winds encounter disturbances to the flow, such as mountains, convection and fronts, can have wavelengths smaller than the spacing between grid cells. Climate models use "parameterizations" to capture the effect of these processes. Machine learning based parameterizations are becoming popular because they can learn relationships purely from data. However, we do not have a good understanding of the uncertainties introduced through machine learning parameterizations. This study estimates uncertainties associated with training a neural network (NN) GW parameterization. We explore uncertainties in the NN output, as well as the uncertainties in the climate model output, when the NN is used for the GW parameterization. Key Points: Using ensembles of neural networks, we learn parametric uncertainties associated with an emulator of a gravity wave parameterizationWhen coupled to the climate model, the ensemble of neural networks reveals increased climate variabilityParametric uncertainty dominates the Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation statistics, although polar vortex properties remain robust to parameters [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that there are several vertical flight phases for the aircraft in the flight. The cruise flight phase takes most of the flight time, flight distance and fuel consumption, so it is important and necessary to develop the flight management system(FMS) vertical trajectory prediction algorithm for the cruise flight phase, aiming to improve the economy, comfort and safety of the flight. In order to meet the versatility of the vertical trajectory prediction algorithm between different types of aircraft in the cruise phase and improve the accuracy and reliability of the vertical trajectory prediction, the algorithm of vertical trajectory prediction for cruise flight phase is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the cruise speed profile is calculated, and the realistic atmospheric model of prediction is constructed. Then the cruise fuel flow data is calculated based on the aircraft model of first-principles, and the vertical trajectory prediction for the cruise phase is given by designing the vertical trajectory prediction algorithm logic. Finally, the effectiveness and accuracy of the algorithm are verified by ground simulation and air flight test. The results show that the vertical trajectory prediction algorithm of FMS cruise phase based on the aircraft model of firstprinciples can predict the cruise trajectory of the aircraft, and the prediction accuracy error is less than 1%.

Abstract Subgrid‐scale processes, such as atmospheric gravity waves (GWs), play a pivotal role in shaping the Earth's climate but cannot be explicitly resolved in climate models due to limitations on resolution. Instead, subgrid‐scale parameterizations are used to capture their effects. Recently, machine learning (ML) has emerged as a promising approach to learn parameterizations. In this study, we explore uncertainties associated with a ML parameterization for atmospheric GWs. Focusing on the uncertainties in the training process (parametric uncertainty), we use an ensemble of neural networks to emulate an existing GW parameterization. We estimate both offline uncertainties in raw NN output and online uncertainties in climate model output, after the neural networks are coupled. We find that online parametric uncertainty contributes a significant source of uncertainty in climate model output that must be considered when introducing NN parameterizations. This uncertainty quantification provides valuable insights into the reliability and robustness of ML‐based GW parameterizations, thus advancing our understanding of their potential applications in climate modeling.

Atmospheric drag is an important influencing factor in precise orbit determination and the prediction of low-orbit space debris. It has received widespread attention. Currently, calculating atmospheric drag mainly relies on different atmospheric density models. This experiment was designed to explore the impact of different atmospheric density models on the orbit prediction of space debris. In the experiment, satellite laser ranging data published by the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) were used as the basis for the precise orbit determination for space debris. The prediction error of space debris orbits at different orbital heights using different atmospheric density models was used as a criterion to evaluate the impact of atmospheric density models on the determination of space-target orbits. Eight atmospheric density models, DTM78, DTM94, DTM2000, J71, RJ71, JB2006, MSIS86, and NRLMSISE00, were compared in the experiment. The experimental results indicated that the DTM2000 atmospheric density model is best for determining and predicting the orbits of LEO (low-Earth-orbit) targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a data-driven context, bionic polarization navigation requires a mass of skylight polarization pattern data with diversity, complete ground truth, and scene information. However, acquiring such data in urban environments, where bionic polarization navigation is widely utilized, remains challenging. In this paper, we proposed a virtual-real-fusion framework of the skylight polarization pattern simulator and provided a data preparation method complementing the existing pure simulation or measurement method. The framework consists of a virtual part simulating the ground truth of skylight polarization pattern, a real part measuring scene information, and a fusion part fusing information of the first two parts according to the imaging projection relationship. To illustrate the framework, we constructed a simulator instance adapted to the urban environment and clear weather and verified it in 174 urban scenes. The results showed that the simulator can provide a mass of diverse urban skylight polarization pattern data with scene information and complete ground truth based on a few practical measurements. Moreover, we released a dataset based on the results and opened our code to facilitate researchers preparing and adapting their datasets to their research targets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents an analysis of a new method for retrieving the parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer in hurricanes. This method is based on the approximation of the upper parabolic part of the wind speed profile and the retrieval of the lower logarithmic part. Based on the logarithmic part, the friction velocity, near-surface wind speed and the aerodynamic drag coefficient are obtained. The obtained data are used for the verification of the modeling data in the WRF-ARW model. The case of the Irma hurricane is studied. Different configurations of the model are tested, which differ in the use of physical parameterizations. The difference of wind profiles in various sectors of the hurricane is studied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Determining physical process parameters in atmospheric models is critical to obtaining accurate weather and climate simulations; estimating optimal parameters is essential for reducing model error. Recently, automatic parameter estimation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been tested instead of conventional manual parameter tuning. To maintain uncertainty for the parameters to be estimated and avoid filter divergence in EnKF-based methods, some inflation techniques should be applied to parameter ensemble spread (ES). When ES is kept constant through the estimation using an inflation technique, the precision and convergence speed of the estimation vary depending on the ES assigned to estimated parameters. However, there is debate over how to determine an appropriate constant ES for estimated parameters in terms of precision and convergence speed. This study examined the dependence of precision and convergence speed of an estimated parameter on the ES to establish a reliable and efficient method for EnKF-based parameter estimation. This was carried out by conducting idealized experiments targeting a parameter in a cloud microphysics scheme. In the experiments, there was a threshold value for ES where any smaller values did not result in any further improvements to the estimation precision, which enabled the determination of the optimal ES in terms of precision. On the other hand, the convergence speed accelerates monotonically as ES increases. To generalize the precision and convergence speed, we approximated the time series of parameter estimation with a first-order autoregression (AR(1)) model. We demonstrated that the precision and convergence speed may be quantified by two parameters from the AR(1) model: the autoregressive parameter and the amplitude of random perturbation. As the ES increases, the autoregressive parameter decreases, while the random perturbation amplitude increases. The estimation precision was determined based on the balance between the two values. The AR(1) approximation provides quantitative guidelines to determine the optimal ES for the precision and convergence speed of the EnKF-based parameter estimation.

In the Adriatic Sea, the sea surface wind forecasts are often underestimated, with detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. Among the various causes, this mainly depends on the meteorological forcing of the wind. In this paper, we try to improve an existing numerical method, called "wind bias mitigation", which relies on scatterometer wind observations to determine a multiplicative factor Δ w , whose application to the model wind reduces its inaccuracy with respect to the scatterometer wind. Following four different mathematical approaches, we formulate and discuss seven new expressions of the multiplicative factor. The eight different expressions of the bias mitigation factor, the original one and the seven formulated in this study, are assessed with the aid of four datasets of real sea surface wind events in a variety of sea level conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea, several of which gave rise to high water events in the Venice Lagoon. The statistical analysis shows that some of the seven new formulations of the wind bias mitigation factor are able to lower the model-scatterometer bias with respect to the original formulation. For some other of the seven new formulations, the absolute bias, with respect to scatterometer, of the mitigated model wind field, results lower than that supplied by the unmodified model wind field in 81% of the considered storm surge events in the area of interest, against the 73% of the original formulation of the wind bias mitigation. This represents an 11% improvement in the bias mitigation process, with respect to the original formulation. The best performing of the seven new wind bias mitigation factors, that based on the linear least square regression of the squared wind speed ( L L S R E ), has been implemented in the operational sea level forecast chain of the Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality (CPSM), to provide support to the operation of the MO.SE. barriers in Venice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we derive a fourth order two step Runge-Kutta method with four stages, for additively partitioned systems of ordinary differential equations. Our main objective is that it will be useful as a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit (HEVI) method for atmospheric models. In our method the diagonal coefficients in the implicit part are all equal, and the HEVI-stability properties seem to be excellent. Further, the accuracies obtained for two simple test problems, used with different resolutions and integration intervals, considerably surpass those of a third order one step Runge-Kutta method also with four stages, used for comparison.

In this paper we derive a fourth order two step Runge-Kutta method with four stages, for additively partitioned systems of ordinary differential equations. Our main objective is that it will be useful as a horizontally explicit and vertically implicit (HEVI) method for atmospheric models. In our method the diagonal coefficients in the implicit part are all equal, and the HEVI-stability properties seem to be excellent. Further, the accuracies obtained for two simple test problems, used with different resolutions and integration intervals, considerably surpass those of a third order one step Runge-Kutta method also with four stages, used for comparison. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric drag is an important influencing factor in precise orbit determination and the prediction of low-orbit space debris. It has received widespread attention. Currently, calculating atmospheric drag mainly relies on different atmospheric density models. This experiment was designed to explore the impact of different atmospheric density models on the orbit prediction of space debris. In the experiment, satellite laser ranging data published by the ILRS (International Laser Ranging Service) were used as the basis for the precise orbit determination for space debris. The prediction error of space debris orbits at different orbital heights using different atmospheric density models was used as a criterion to evaluate the impact of atmospheric density models on the determination of space-target orbits. Eight atmospheric density models, DTM78, DTM94, DTM2000, J71, RJ71, JB2006, MSIS86, and NRLMSISE00, were compared in the experiment. The experimental results indicated that the DTM2000 atmospheric density model is best for determining and predicting the orbits of LEO (low-Earth-orbit) targets.

It is very well known that parameter tuning can have a major impact on the performance of Global Climate Models. However, parameter tuning is not the only implementation detail that can drastically affect model performance and the representation of various phenomena in models. "Minor‐looking treatments" often exert a critical control on model performance; they include lower and upper limits of physical variables, thresholds of variables that control the enabling or disabling of a specific process, whether two schemes can work together or only one scheme works exclusively, and numerical methods including the order of calling various physics schemes. The impacts of such minor‐looking treatments are sometimes comparable to or even larger than those obtained by introducing advanced parameterizations based on theory and observation. Because the importance of these treatments is often overlooked and not discussed in the literature, we comprehensively summarize examples of various minor‐looking treatments that can considerably affect model performance. Plain Language Summary: Global climate models (GCMs) are used for climate simulations, including global warming simulations. Global climate models (GCMs) simulate various physical processes such as convection, clouds, radiation, and turbulence. A lot of effort is devoted to improving the representation of these physical processes by introducing more sophisticated or more complicated and detailed processes. The values of parameters in such processes significantly affect the model performance, and many modelers carefully set such parameter values. However, other factors can also affect model performance. The lower or upper limits specified in the detailed implementation of such processes, threshold values for switching on a certain effect, how to calculate each effect, vertical resolutions, and so on can significantly affect the model performance. We call these "minor‐looking treatments" and show a wide range of examples in this paper. Key Points: Minor‐looking treatments crucially determine the performance of global climate modelsThey include lower limits, upper limits, thresholds for enabling physical processes, and numerical methodsMinor‐looking treatments should be documented in detail, shared, and discussed more in the climate community [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining physical process parameters in atmospheric models is critical to obtaining accurate weather and climate simulations; estimating optimal parameters is essential for reducing model error. Recently, automatic parameter estimation using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been tested instead of conventional manual parameter tuning. To maintain uncertainty for the parameters to be estimated and avoid filter divergence in EnKF-based methods, some inflation techniques should be applied to parameter ensemble spread (ES). When ES is kept constant through the estimation using an inflation technique, the precision and convergence speed of the estimation vary depending on the ES assigned to estimated parameters. However, there is debate over how to determine an appropriate constant ES for estimated parameters in terms of precision and convergence speed. This study examined the dependence of precision and convergence speed of an estimated parameter on the ES to establish a reliable and efficient method for EnKF-based parameter estimation. This was carried out by conducting idealized experiments targeting a parameter in a cloud microphysics scheme. In the experiments, there was a threshold value for ES where any smaller values did not result in any further improvements to the estimation precision, which enabled the determination of the optimal ES in terms of precision. On the other hand, the convergence speed accelerates monotonically as ES increases. To generalize the precision and convergence speed, we approximated the time series of parameter estimation with a first-order autoregression (AR(1)) model. We demonstrated that the precision and convergence speed may be quantified by two parameters from the AR(1) model: the autoregressive parameter and the amplitude of random perturbation. As the ES increases, the autoregressive parameter decreases, while the random perturbation amplitude increases. The estimation precision was determined based on the balance between the two values. The AR(1) approximation provides quantitative guidelines to determine the optimal ES for the precision and convergence speed of the EnKF-based parameter estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Irrigation is the process of artificially providing water to agricultural lands in order to provide crops with the necessary water supply to ensure or foster the growth of the plants. However, its implications reach beyond the agro-economic aspect as irrigation affects the soil-land-atmosphere interactions and thus influences the water and energy cycles in the Earth system. Past studies have shown how through these interactions, an increase in soil moisture due to irrigation also affects the atmospheric state and its dynamics. Thus, the lack of representation of irrigation in numerical Earth system models—be it for reanalysis, weather forecasting or climate prediction—can lead to significant errors and biases in various parameters of the system including but not limited to surface temperature and precipitation. In this study, we aim to summarize and discuss currently available irrigation parameterizations across different numerical models. This provides a reference framework to understand the impact of irrigation on the various components of Earth system models. Specifically, we discuss the impact of these parameterizations in the context of their spatio-temporal scale representation and point out the benefits and limitations of the various approaches. In fact, most of the parameterizations use irrigation as a direct modification of soil moisture with just a few implementations add irrigation as a form of surface water. While the former method might be suitable for coarse spatio-temporal scales, the latter better resembles the range of employed irrigation techniques. From the analysis, we find that not only the method or the spatio-temporal scales but the actual amount of water used is of great importance to the response of the Earth system model.

In a data-driven context, bionic polarization navigation requires a mass of skylight polarization pattern data with diversity, complete ground truth, and scene information. However, acquiring such data in urban environments, where bionic polarization navigation is widely utilized, remains challenging. In this paper, we proposed a virtual-real-fusion framework of the skylight polarization pattern simulator and provided a data preparation method complementing the existing pure simulation or measurement method. The framework consists of a virtual part simulating the ground truth of skylight polarization pattern, a real part measuring scene information, and a fusion part fusing information of the first two parts according to the imaging projection relationship. To illustrate the framework, we constructed a simulator instance adapted to the urban environment and clear weather and verified it in 174 urban scenes. The results showed that the simulator can provide a mass of diverse urban skylight polarization pattern data with scene information and complete ground truth based on a few practical measurements. Moreover, we released a dataset based on the results and opened our code to facilitate researchers preparing and adapting their datasets to their research targets.

This paper presents an analysis of a new method for retrieving the parameters of the atmospheric boundary layer in hurricanes. This method is based on the approximation of the upper parabolic part of the wind speed profile and the retrieval of the lower logarithmic part. Based on the logarithmic part, the friction velocity, near-surface wind speed and the aerodynamic drag coefficient are obtained. The obtained data are used for the verification of the modeling data in the WRF-ARW model. The case of the Irma hurricane is studied. Different configurations of the model are tested, which differ in the use of physical parameterizations. The difference of wind profiles in various sectors of the hurricane is studied.

Traditional atmospheric models are based on the analysis and fitting of various factors influencing the space atmosphere density. Neural network models do not specifically analyze the polynomials of each influencing factor in the atmospheric model, but use large data sets for network construction. Two traditional atmospheric model algorithms are analyzed, the main factors affecting the atmospheric model are identified, and an atmospheric model based on neural networks containing various influencing factors is proposed. According to the simulation error, the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to iteratively realize the rapid network weight correction, and the optimal neural network atmospheric model is obtained. The space atmosphere is simulated and calculated with an atmospheric model based on neural networks, and its average error rate is lower than that of traditional atmospheric models such as the DTM2013 model and the MSIS00 model. At the same time, the calculation complexity of the atmospheric model based on the neural networks is significantly simplified than that of the traditional atmospheric model.

In California offshore waters, sustained northwesterly winds have been identified as a key energy resource that could contribute substantially to California’s renewable energy mandate. It is these winds that drive upwelling, which is responsible for much of the primary productivity that sustains one of the richest ecosystems on the planet. The goal of this study is to quantify changes in wind fields at the sea surface as the result of offshore wind turbine deployments by use of an atmospheric model. Modeled wind fields from this study will drive an ocean circulation model. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was implemented on a regional scale along the U.S. west coast, with a higher resolution nest along the California continental shelf. Simulated arrays of offshore wind turbines were placed within call areas for wind farm development offshore of Central and Northern California. At full build-out, it was found that wind speeds at 10 m height are reduced by approximately 5%, with wakes extending approximately 200 km downwind of the nominated lease block areas. The length scale of wind speed reductions was found to be several times the internal Rossby radius of deformation, the spatial scale at which rotationally-influenced ocean circulation processes such as upwelling occur.

In the Adriatic Sea, the sea surface wind forecasts are often underestimated, with detrimental effects on the accuracy of sea level and storm surge predictions. Among the various causes, this mainly depends on the meteorological forcing of the wind. In this paper, we try to improve an existing numerical method, called “wind bias mitigation”, which relies on scatterometer wind observations to determine a multiplicative factor Δw, whose application to the model wind reduces its inaccuracy with respect to the scatterometer wind. Following four different mathematical approaches, we formulate and discuss seven new expressions of the multiplicative factor. The eight different expressions of the bias mitigation factor, the original one and the seven formulated in this study, are assessed with the aid of four datasets of real sea surface wind events in a variety of sea level conditions in the northern Adriatic Sea, several of which gave rise to high water events in the Venice Lagoon. The statistical analysis shows that some of the seven new formulations of the wind bias mitigation factor are able to lower the model-scatterometer bias with respect to the original formulation. For some other of the seven new formulations, the absolute bias, with respect to scatterometer, of the mitigated model wind field, results lower than that supplied by the unmodified model wind field in 81% of the considered storm surge events in the area of interest, against the 73% of the original formulation of the wind bias mitigation. This represents an 11% improvement in the bias mitigation process, with respect to the original formulation. The best performing of the seven new wind bias mitigation factors, that based on the linear least square regression of the squared wind speed (LLSRE), has been implemented in the operational sea level forecast chain of the Tide Forecast and Early Warning Centre of the Venice Municipality (CPSM), to provide support to the operation of the MO.SE. barriers in Venice.

The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) has been ported, redesigned, and scaled to the full system of the Sunway TaihuLight, and provides peta-scale climate modeling performance. Based on a novel domain decomposition method, we have fully optimized the complete model code by using both OpenACC refactoring and more aggressive and finer-grained Athread approaches. The Athread approach enables us to achieve exceptional memory control and usage, efficient vectorization, and sophisticated utilization of the thread-level communication mechanism. We have also further refined the load-balance behaviors towards ultra-large-scale numerical simulation. By combining all these novelties, we achieved a simulation speed of 7.2 and 25.6 simulation-year-per-day (SYPD) for global 25-km and 100-km resolution, respectively (1.2- to 2.2-fold improvements over previous efforts), and a sustainable double-precision performance of 3.3 PFlops for a 750-m global simulation when using 10075000 cores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A large-ensemble climate simulation database, which is known as the database for policy decision-making for future climate changes (d4PDF), was designed for climate change risk assessments. Since the completion of the first set of climate simulations in 2015, the database has been growing continuously. It contains the results of ensemble simulations conducted over a total of thousands years respectively for past and future climates using high-resolution global (60 km horizontal mesh) and regional (20 km mesh) atmospheric models. Several sets of future climate simulations are available, in which global mean surface air temperatures are forced to be higher by 4 K, 2 K, and 1.5 K relative to preindustrial levels. Nonwarming past climate simulations are incorporated in d4PDF along with the past climate simulations. The total data volume is approximately 2 petabytes. The atmospheric models satisfactorily simulate the past climate in terms of climatology, natural variations, and extreme events such as heavy precipitation and tropical cyclones. In addition, data users can obtain statistically significant changes in mean states or weather and climate extremes of interest between the past and future climates via a simple arithmetic computation without any statistical assumptions. The database is helpful in understanding future changes in climate states and in attributing past climate events to global warming. Impact assessment studies for climate changes have concurrently been performed in various research areas such as natural hazard, hydrology, civil engineering, agriculture, health, and insurance. The database has now become essential for promoting climate and risk assessment studies and for devising climate adaptation policies. Moreover, it has helped in establishing an interdisciplinary research community on global warming across Japan.

This work added semi-Lagrangian convected air particles to the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model. The ICAR model is a simplified atmospheric model using quasi-dynamical downscaling to gain performance over more traditional atmospheric models. The ICAR model uses Fortran coarrays to split the domain amongst images and handle the halo region communication of the image's boundary regions. The newly implemented convected air particles use trilinear interpolation to compute initial properties from the Eulerian domain and calculate humidity and buoyancy forces as the model runs. This paper investigated the performance cost and scaling attributes of executing unsaturated and saturated air particles versus the original particle-less model. An in-depth analysis was done on the communication patterns and performance of the semi-Lagrangian air particles, as well as the performance cost of a variety of initial conditions such as wind speed and saturation mixing ratios. This study found that given a linear increase in the number of particles communicated, there is an initial decrease in performance, but that it then levels out, indicating that over the runtime of the model, there is an initial cost of particle communication, but that the computational benefits quickly offset it. The study provided insight into the number of processors required to amortize the additional computational cost of the air particles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire emissions associated with tropical land use change and maintenance influence atmospheric composition, air quality, and climate. In this study, we explore the effects of representing fire emissions at daily versus monthly resolution in a global composition-climate model. We find that simulations of aerosols are impacted more by the temporal resolution of fire emissions than trace gases such as carbon monoxide or ozone. Daily-resolved datasets concentrate emissions from fire events over shorter time periods and allow them to more realistically interact with model meteorology, reducing how often emissions are concurrently released with precipitation events and in turn increasing peak aerosol concentrations. The magnitude of this effect varies across tropical ecosystem types, ranging from smaller changes in modeling the low intensity, frequent burning typical of savanna ecosystems to larger differences when modeling the short-term, intense fires that characterize deforestation events. The utility of modeling fire emissions at a daily resolution also depends on the application, such as modeling exceedances of particulate matter concentrations over air quality guidelines or simulating regional atmospheric heating patterns.

Abstract This paper describes the initial implementation of a new toolbox that seeks to balance accuracy, efficiency, and flexibility in radiation calculations for dynamical models. The toolbox consists of two related code bases: Radiative Transfer for Energetics (RTE), which computes fluxes given a radiative transfer problem defined in terms of optical properties, boundary conditions, and source functions; and RRTM for General circulation model applications—Parallel (RRTMGP), which combines data and algorithms to map a physical description of the gaseous atmosphere into such a radiative transfer problem. The toolbox is an implementation of well‐established ideas, including the use of a k‐distribution to represent the spectral variation of absorption by gases and the use of two‐stream, plane‐parallel methods for solving the radiative transfer equation. The focus is instead on accuracy, by basing the k‐distribution on state‐of‐the‐art spectroscopy and on the sometimes‐conflicting goals of flexibility and efficiency. Flexibility is facilitated by making extensive use of computational objects encompassing code and data, the latter provisioned at runtime and potentially tailored to specific problems. The computational objects provide robust access to a set of high‐efficiency computational kernels that can be adapted to new computational environments. Accuracy is obtained by careful choice of algorithms and through tuning and validation of the k‐distribution against benchmark calculations. Flexibility with respect to the host model implies user responsibility for maps between clouds and aerosols and the radiative transfer problem, although comprehensive examples are provided for clouds.

Abstract The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork of the well‐known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of light‐absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and ground‐based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to “brute force” tune the high‐resolution configurations, so short‐term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models.

Abstract Atmospheric radiation is the main driver of weather and climate, yet due to a complicated absorption spectrum, the precise treatment of radiative transfer in numerical weather and climate models is computationally unfeasible. Radiation parameterizations need to maximize computational efficiency as well as accuracy, and for predicting the future climate many greenhouse gases need to be included. In this work, neural networks (NNs) were developed to replace the gas optics computations in a modern radiation scheme (RTE+RRTMGP) by using carefully constructed models and training data. The NNs, implemented in Fortran and utilizing BLAS for batched inference, are faster by a factor of 1–6, depending on the software and hardware platforms. We combined the accelerated gas optics with a refactored radiative transfer solver, resulting in clear‐sky longwave (shortwave) fluxes being 3.5 (1.8) faster to compute on an Intel platform. The accuracy, evaluated with benchmark line‐by‐line computations across a large range of atmospheric conditions, is very similar to the original scheme with errors in heating rates and top‐of‐atmosphere radiative forcings typically below 0.1 K day−1 and 0.5 W m−2, respectively. These results show that targeted machine learning, code restructuring techniques, and the use of numerical libraries can yield material gains in efficiency while retaining accuracy.

Atmospheric radiation is the main driver of weather and climate, yet due to a complicated absorption spectrum, the precise treatment of radiative transfer in numerical weather and climate models is computationally unfeasible. Radiation parameterizations need to maximize computational efficiency as well as accuracy, and for predicting the future climate many greenhouse gases need to be included. In this work, neural networks (NNs) were developed to replace the gas optics computations in a modern radiation scheme (RTE+RRTMGP) by using carefully constructed models and training data. The NNs, implemented in Fortran and utilizing BLAS for batched inference, are faster by a factor of 1–6, depending on the software and hardware platforms. We combined the accelerated gas optics with a refactored radiative transfer solver, resulting in clear‐sky longwave (shortwave) fluxes being 3.5 (1.8) faster to compute on an Intel platform. The accuracy, evaluated with benchmark line‐by‐line computations across a large range of atmospheric conditions, is very similar to the original scheme with errors in heating rates and top‐of‐atmosphere radiative forcings typically below 0.1 K day−1 and 0.5 W m−2, respectively. These results show that targeted machine learning, code restructuring techniques, and the use of numerical libraries can yield material gains in efficiency while retaining accuracy. Plain Language Summary: Solar and terrestrial radiation interact with Earth's atmosphere, surface, and clouds and provide the energy which drives climate and weather. Simulating these radiative flows in climate and weather models is crucial and can also be very time‐consuming. One possible way to model radiative effects more efficiently is to use neural networks or similar machine learning algorithms, but predictions are not guaranteed to be realistic because such models do not use physical equations. Here we investigate using neural networks to replace only one part of traditional radiation code, where the optical properties of the atmosphere are computed. We have found that this approach can be several times faster, while still being accurate in various situations, such as simulating future climate. Key Points: Neural networks (NNs) were trained to predict the optical properties of the gaseous atmosphereTraining data were generated with a recently developed radiation scheme for dynamical models (RRTMGP)RRTMGP‐NN is roughly 3 times faster than the reference code and has a similar accuracy, also in future climate scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Attribution of the causes of atmospheric trace gas and aerosol variability often requires the use of high resolution time series of anthropogenic and natural emissions inventories. Here we developed an approach for representing synoptic- and diurnal-scale temporal variability in fire emissions for the Global Fire Emissions Database version 3 (GFED3). We disaggregated monthly GFED3 emissions during 2003–2009 to a daily time step using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived measurements of active fires from Terra and Aqua satellites. In parallel, mean diurnal cycles were constructed from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Wildfire Automated Biomass Burning Algorithm (WF_ABBA) active fire observations. Daily variability in fires varied considerably across different biomes, with short but intense periods of daily emissions in boreal ecosystems and lower intensity (but more continuous) periods of burning in savannas. These patterns were consistent with earlier field and modeling work characterizing fire behavior dynamics in different ecosystems. On diurnal timescales, our analysis of the GOES WF_ABBA active fires indicated that fires in savannas, grasslands, and croplands occurred earlier in the day as compared to fires in nearby forests. Comparison with Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) column CO observations provided evidence that including daily variability in emissions moderately improved atmospheric model simulations, particularly during the fire season and near regions with high levels of biomass burning. The high temporal resolution estimates of fire emissions developed here may ultimately reduce uncertainties related to fire contributions to atmospheric trace gases and aerosols. Important future directions include reconciling top-down and bottom up estimates of fire radiative power and integrating burned area and active fire time series from multiple satellite sensors to improve daily emissions estimates.

Abstract Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of subgrid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time step sensitivity and slower‐than‐expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral‐element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large‐scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long‐term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena.

Flood forecasting is one of the most significant tools for reducing flood risk and avoiding the loss of life To solve the problem of low resolution and the short lead time of the traditional urban flood forecasting method, this work develops a novel high-accuracy and long lead time model through coupling the atmospheric and hydrodynamic models. The GRAPE_MESO model is applied as an atmospheric model for predicting rainstorms. To improve reliability, a reconstructed method is put forward to correct predicted rainstorm data. The reconstructed predicted rainstorm is then used as input data for the hydrodynamic flood model. Finally, the urban flood inundation process was forecasted by the coupled atmospheric and flood model. Though applying the coupled model at Fengxi New Town (China), the performance is evaluated for realistic urban flood forecasting. The results show that the coupled modeling system can predict the urban flood inundation process with high-resolution and a long lead time.

Convergence testing is a common practice in the development of dynamical cores of atmospheric models but is not as often exercised for the parameterization of subgrid physics. An earlier study revealed that the stratiform cloud parameterizations in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) showed strong time step sensitivity and slower‐than‐expected convergence when the model's time step was systematically refined. In this work, a simplified atmosphere model is configured that consists of the spectral‐element dynamical core of the E3SM atmosphere model coupled with a large‐scale condensation parameterization based on commonly used assumptions. This simplified model also resembles E3SM and its predecessors in the numerical implementation of process coupling and shows poor time step convergence in short ensemble tests. We present a formal error analysis to reveal the expected time step convergence rate and the conditions for obtaining such convergence. Numerical experiments are conducted to investigate the root causes of convergence problems. We show that revisions in the process coupling and closure assumption help to improve convergence in short simulations using the simplified model; the same revisions applied to a full atmosphere model lead to significant changes in the simulated long‐term climate. This work demonstrates that causes of convergence issues in atmospheric simulations can be understood by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. Addressing convergence issues can help to obtain a discrete model that is more consistent with the intended representation of the physical phenomena. Plain Language Summary: Computer codes that simulate the time evolution of a physical system produce errors in the results due to the finite step sizes used to advance the calculations in time. These errors are expected to decrease as the time steps are shortened, at a rate determined by the characteristics of the equations and numerical methods. An earlier study revealed that the error reduction in several predecessors of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) was at a rate slower than expected. This study creates a simplified configuration of those models and investigates the causes of the unexpected behavior. We show that slow error reduction can be understood and improved by combining analyses from physical and mathematical perspectives. The required code modifications can lead to significant changes in the simulated long‐term behavior of a full‐fledged climate model. Furthermore, ensuring a proper rate of error reduction can help to obtain a computer code that is more consistent with the intended representation of the corresponding physical system. Key Points: Poor numerical convergence is seen in a simplified model that resembles design features of a full‐fledged climate modelRevisions in process coupling and closure assumption help improve convergence and avoid nonphysical behaviorThese revisions also affect long‐term climate in the corresponding full model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research aims to improve the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm by combining a multidimensional search with a line search to determine the location of the air pollution point sources and their respective emission rates. Both multidimensional search and line search do not require the derivative of the cost function. By exploring a symmetric property of search domain, this innovative search tool incorporating a multidimensional search and line search in the PSO is referred to as the hybrid PSO (HPSO). Measuring the pollutant concentration emanating from the pollution point sources through the aid of sensors represents the first stage in the process of evaluating the efficiency of HPSO. The summation of the square of the differences between the observed concentration and the concentration that is theoretically expected (inverse Gaussian plume model or numerical estimations) is used as a cost function. All experiments in this research are therefore conducted using the HPSO sensing technique. To effectively identify air pollution point sources as well as calculate emission rates, optimum positioning of sensors must also be determined. Moreover, the frame of discussion of this research also involves a detailed comparison of the results obtained by the PSO algorithm, the GA (genetic algorithm) and the HPSO algorithm in terms of single pollutant location detection, respectively. In the case of multiple sources, only the findings based on PSO and HPSO algorithms are taken into consideration. This research eventually verifies and confirms that the HPSO does offer substantially better performance in the measuring of pollutant locations as well as emission rates of the air pollution point sources than the original PSO.

Abstract Low and high clouds of shallow extent, especially stratocumulus and even more so for high‐level cirrus clouds that reside where vertical resolution is particularly coarse, are poorly represented in large‐scale models such as global climate models and weather forecasting models. This adversely affects, among others, estimation of cloud feedbacks for climate prediction and weather forecasts. Here we address vertical resolution as a reason for the failure of these models to adequately represent shallow clouds. We introduce a new methodology, the Framework for Improvement by Vertical Enhancement (FIVE). FIVE computes selected processes on a one‐dimensional vertical grid with local high resolution in the boundary layer and near the tropopause. In addition to the host model, variables on the locally high‐resolution grid are predicted in parallel so that high‐resolution information is retained. By exchanging tendencies with one another, the host model and high‐resolution field are always synchronized. The methodology is demonstrated for drizzling stratocumulus capped by a sharp inversion. First, FIVE is applied to a single‐column model to identify the cause of biases associated with computing an assigned process at low resolution. Second, a two‐dimensional regional model coupled with FIVE is shown to produce results comparable to those performed with high vertical resolution. FIVE is thus expected to represent low clouds more realistically and hence reduce the low‐cloud bias in large‐scale models. Finally, we propose a number of methods that will be developed and tested to further optimize FIVE.

This work added semi-Lagrangian convected air particles to the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model. The ICAR model is a simplified atmospheric model using quasi-dynamical downscaling to gain performance over more traditional atmospheric models. The ICAR model uses Fortran coarrays to split the domain amongst images and handle the halo region communication of the image’s boundary regions. The newly implemented convected air particles use trilinear interpolation to compute initial properties from the Eulerian domain and calculate humidity and buoyancy forces as the model runs. This paper investigated the performance cost and scaling attributes of executing unsaturated and saturated air particles versus the original particle-less model. An in-depth analysis was done on the communication patterns and performance of the semi-Lagrangian air particles, as well as the performance cost of a variety of initial conditions such as wind speed and saturation mixing ratios. This study found that given a linear increase in the number of particles communicated, there is an initial decrease in performance, but that it then levels out, indicating that over the runtime of the model, there is an initial cost of particle communication, but that the computational benefits quickly offset it. The study provided insight into the number of processors required to amortize the additional computational cost of the air particles.

The Energy Exascale Earth System Model Atmosphere Model version 1, the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model is described. The model began as a fork of the well‐known Community Atmosphere Model, but it has evolved in new ways, and coding, performance, resolution, physical processes (primarily cloud and aerosols formulations), testing and development procedures now differ significantly. Vertical resolution was increased (from 30 to 72 layers), and the model top extended to 60 km (~0.1 hPa). A simple ozone photochemistry predicts stratospheric ozone, and the model now supports increased and more realistic variability in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. An optional improved treatment of light‐absorbing particle deposition to snowpack and ice is available, and stronger connections with Earth system biogeochemistry can be used for some science problems. Satellite and ground‐based cloud and aerosol simulators were implemented to facilitate evaluation of clouds, aerosols, and aerosol‐cloud interactions. Higher horizontal and vertical resolution, increased complexity, and more predicted and transported variables have increased the model computational cost and changed the simulations considerably. These changes required development of alternate strategies for tuning and evaluation as it was not feasible to "brute force" tune the high‐resolution configurations, so short‐term hindcasts, perturbed parameter ensemble simulations, and regionally refined simulations provided guidance on tuning and parameterization sensitivity to higher resolution. A brief overview of the model and model climate is provided. Model fidelity has generally improved compared to its predecessors and the CMIP5 generation of climate models. Plain Language Summary: This study provides an overview of a new computer model of the Earth's atmosphere that is used as one component of the Department of Energy's latest Earth system model. The model can be used to help understand past, present, and future changes in Earth's behavior as the system responds to changes in atmospheric composition (like pollution and greenhouse gases), land, and water use and to explore how the atmosphere interacts with other components of the Earth system (ocean, land, biology, etc.). Physical, chemical, and biogeochemical processes treated within the atmospheric model are described, and pointers to previous and recent work are listed to provide additional information. The model is compared to present‐day observations and evaluated for some important tests that provide information about what could happen to clouds and the environment as changes occur. Strengths and weaknesses of the model are listed, as well as opportunities for future work. Key Points: A brief description and evaluation is provided for the atmospheric component of the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System ModelModel fidelity has generally improved compared to predecessors and models participating in past international model evaluationsStrengths and weaknesses of the model, as well as opportunities for future work, are described [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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We present the acceleration of an IMplicit–EXplicit (IMEX) nonhydrostatic atmospheric model on manycore processors such as graphic processing units (GPUs) and Intel's Many Integrated Core (MIC) architecture. IMEX time integration methods sidestep the constraint imposed by the Courant–Friedrichs–Lewy condition on explicit methods through corrective implicit solves within each time step. In this work, we implement and evaluate the performance of IMEX on manycore processors relative to explicit methods. Using 3D-IMEX at Courant number C = 15, we obtained a speedup of about 4× relative to an explicit time stepping method run with the maximum allowable C = 1. Moreover, the unconditional stability of IMEX with respect to the fast waves means the speedup can increase significantly with the Courant number as long as the accuracy of the resulting solution is acceptable. We show a speedup of 100× at C = 150 using 1D-IMEX to demonstrate this point. Several improvements on the IMEX procedure were necessary in order to outperform our results with explicit methods: (a) reducing the number of degrees of freedom of the IMEX formulation by forming the Schur complement, (b) formulating a horizontally explicit vertically implicit 1D-IMEX scheme that has a lower workload and better scalability than 3D-IMEX, (c) using high-order polynomial preconditioners to reduce the condition number of the resulting system, and (d) using a direct solver for the 1D-IMEX method by performing and storing LU factorizations once to obtain a constant cost for any Courant number. Without all of these improvements, explicit time integration methods turned out to be difficult to beat. We discuss in detail the IMEX infrastructure required for formulating and implementing efficient methods on manycore processors. Several parametric studies are conducted to demonstrate the gain from each of the abovementioned improvements. Finally, we validate our results with standard benchmark problems in numerical weather prediction and evaluate the performance and scalability of the IMEX method using up to 4192 GPUs and 16 Knights Landing processors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a Graphics Processing Unit (GPU)-accelerated nodal discontinuous Galerkin method for the solution of the three-dimensional Euler equations that govern the motion and thermodynamic state of the atmosphere. Acceleration of the dynamical core of atmospheric models plays an important practical role in not only getting daily forecasts faster, but also in obtaining more accurate (high resolution) results within a given simulation time limit. We use algorithms suitable for the single instruction multiple thread architecture of GPUs to accelerate our model by two orders of magnitude relative to one core of a CPU. Tests on one node of the Titan supercomputer show a speedup of up to 15 times using the K20X GPU as compared to that on the 16-core AMD Opteron CPU. The scalability of the multi-GPU implementation is tested using 16,384 GPUs, which resulted in a weak scaling efficiency of about 90%. Finally, the accuracy and performance of our GPU implementation is verified using several benchmark problems representative of different scales of atmospheric dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]