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8. Heavy Southern China Spring Rainfall Promoted by Multi‐Year El Niño Events.

Author

Zhong, Wenxiu, Wu, Yuting, Yang, Song, Ma, Tianjiao, Cai, Qingyu, and Liu, Qian

Subjects
*SPRING, *RAINFALL, *NATURAL disasters, *TROPICAL cyclones, *POLAR vortex, *ROSSBY waves, EL Nino
Abstract

Southern China spring rainfall (SCSR) is significant for agricultural sowing and soil moisture accumulation before the rainy summer. A better prediction of the rainfall improves our ability to risk response to natural disasters. It is found that the SCSR can be promoted by multi‐year El Niño events through the high‐latitude pathway (HP) and low‐latitude pathway (LP). The long‐lasting El Niño warming heats the tropical troposphere persistently until the decaying spring, which strengthens the Arctic polar vortex and the mid‐latitude blockings. This HP is in favor of more southward transport of Rossby wave energy and cold air, resulting in strong ascending motions over southern China (SC) in spring. The multi‐year El Niño also induces an enhanced western North Pacific anticyclone and a secondary circulation transporting moisture to SC through the LP. The HP is more important in the early spring, while the LP dominates the heavy SCSR in the late spring. Plain Language Summary: Southern China (SC) experiences a period of rainy time in spring, with the rainband located from South China to the Yangtze River. The southern China spring rainfall (SCSR) is influential for agriculture and soil moisture accumulation before the flood season in summer. A better prediction of the SCSR improves our ability to risk response to natural disasters. El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate signal that exerts significant remote impacts, especially in East Asia. However, whether it can help to predict the SCSR is still unclear. In this study, we show that a particular type of ENSO event, the multi‐year El Niño, initiates remarkable impacts on the SCSR. The long‐lasting Pacific warming favors a HP that transports more cold air and wave energy southward to SC during the decaying spring. Moreover, it also strengthens the western North Pacific anticyclone and generates a meridional secondary circulation with low‐level moisture transport toward SC. The low‐latitude and HPs collaborate to generate strong ascending motions and water vapor convergence in SC, being responsible for the large SCSR. Thus, the remote climate impact of multi‐year ENSO events is distinctive from the other ENSO events. Key Points: Multi‐year El Niño enhances southern China (SC) spring rainfall through both the low‐latitude pathway (LP) and the high‐latitude pathway (HP)Long‐lasting tropical warming supports the HP which transports wave energy and cold air to SC and exerts ascending motionsThese ascending motions and moisture transportation by El Niño‐induced western Pacific anticyclone can be further intensified by the LP [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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9. Changing El Niño–Southern Oscillation in a warming climate

Author

Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus, Collins, Matthew, Dewitte, Boris, Karamperidou, Christina, Kug, Jong-seong, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Mcphaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Taschetto, Andréa S., Timmermann, Axel, Wu, Lixin, Yeh, Sang-wook, Wang, Guojian, Ng, Benjamin, Jia, Fan, Yang, Yun, Ying, Jun, Zheng, Xiao-tong, Bayr, Tobias, Brown, Josephine R., Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Gan, Bolan, Geng, Tao, Ham, Yoo-geun, Jin, Fei-fei, Jo, Hyun-su, Li, Xichen, Lin, Xiaopei, Mcgregor, Shayne, Park, Jae-heung, Stein, Karl, Yang, Kai, Zhang, Li, Zhong, Wenxiu, Cai, Wenju, Santoso, Agus, Collins, Matthew, Dewitte, Boris, Karamperidou, Christina, Kug, Jong-seong, Lengaigne, Matthieu, Mcphaden, Michael J., Stuecker, Malte F., Taschetto, Andréa S., Timmermann, Axel, Wu, Lixin, Yeh, Sang-wook, Wang, Guojian, Ng, Benjamin, Jia, Fan, Yang, Yun, Ying, Jun, Zheng, Xiao-tong, Bayr, Tobias, Brown, Josephine R., Capotondi, Antonietta, Cobb, Kim M., Gan, Bolan, Geng, Tao, Ham, Yoo-geun, Jin, Fei-fei, Jo, Hyun-su, Li, Xichen, Lin, Xiaopei, Mcgregor, Shayne, Park, Jae-heung, Stein, Karl, Yang, Kai, Zhang, Li, and Zhong, Wenxiu

Abstract

Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

Published
2021
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