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This dataset gives the raw model outputs from a pre-industrial (PI) and several Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) sensitivity simulations based on AWIESM. A more detailed description of the individual file is presented below: PI.tar.gz: model outputs for PIsimulation. LGM-full-forced.tar.gz: model outputs for full forced LGM simulation. LGM-with-PI-greenhousegas.tar.gz: model outputs for a sensitivity LGM simulation, in which all boundary conditions and forcings are set to the LGM values but the greenhouse gasesare the same as for PI. LGM-with-PI-icesheets.tar.gz: model outputs for a sensitivity LGM simulation, in which all boundary conditions and forcings are set to the LGM values but the ice sheets are the same as for PI. LGM-with-PI-orbital.tar.gz: model outputs for a sensitivity LGM simulation, in which all boundary conditions and forcings are set to the LGM values but the orbital parameters are the same as for PI. LGM-with-PI-greenhousegas-and-icesheets.nc: model outputs for a sensitivity LGM simulation, in which all boundary conditions and forcings are set to the LGM values but the greenhouse gases and ice sheets are the same as for PI. &nbsp

Numerical simulations employing prognostic stable water isotopes can not only facilitate our understanding of hydrological processes and climate change but also allow for a straightforward comparison between isotope signals obtained from models and various archives. In the current work, we describe the performance and explore the potential of a new version of the Earth system model AWI-ESM, labeled AWI-ESM-wiso, in which we incorporated three isotope tracers into all relevant components of the water cycle. We present here the results of pre-industrial (PI) and mid-Holocene (MH) simulations. The model well reproduces the observed PI isotope compositions in both precipitation and sea water, and captures their major differences from the MH condition. The simulated relationship between the isotope composition in precipitation (δ18Op) and surface air temperature is very similar between the PI and MH conditions, and largely consistent with modern observations despite some regional model biases. The ratio of the MH-PI difference in δ18Op to the MH-PI difference in surface air temperature is reasonable over Greenland and Antarctica only when summertime air temperature is considered. An amount effect is evident over the North Africa monsoon domain, where a negative correlation between δ18Op and the amount of precipitation is simulated. As an example of model applications, we studied the onset date of MH West Africa summer monsoon (WASM) using daily variables. We find that defining the WASM onset based on precipitation alone may yield erroneous results due to the substantial daily variations of precipitation, which may obscure the distinction between pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons. Combining precipitation and isotope indicators, we suggest in this work a novel method for identifying the commencement of the WASM. Moreover, we do not find obvious difference between the MH and PI in terms of the mean onset date of WASM.

Model codes: Instruction_AWIESM2_1_wiso.pdf:Instruction on how to downloadAWIESM-wiso and perform simulations. codes_runscripts.tar.gz: Source codes, run-scripts and namelists required for AWIESM-wiso. Model outputs: pi_atmosphere_climatology_monthly.nc: Climatological monthly isotope and climate variables for our PI simulation mh_atmosphere_climatology_monthly.nc: Climatological monthly isotope and climate variables for our MHsimulation pi_h2o16_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o16 tracer in the ocean at all depths for PI. pi_h2o18_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o18tracer in the ocean at all depths for PI. mh_h2o16_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o16 tracer in the ocean at all depths for MH. mh_h2o18_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o18tracer in the ocean at all depths for MH.

The potential climate impact of solar geoengineering is examined using climate model simulations by artificially reducing the incoming solar radiation at the top of the atmosphere. Climate scenario simulations indicate that a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide (2xCO2) induces a surface temperature rise which is amplified over the poles primarily during the respective winter. The warming also causes intensification and poleward shift of the global precipitation pattern. In our model, a 2.1% globally uniform solar reduction can largely compensate the global mean warming caused by a doubling of CO2. We find that solar shading is efficient to restore the temperature at the region where the background sunshine is strong, regionally at low-latitudes, seasonally during summer. Solar shading would lead to an overall weakening of the global hydrological cycle, resulting in a large-scale drought. A 3.6% solar reduction in the tropics can largely reduce the tropical and global warming as well. However, it reduces the precipitation at the central tropics, while increase the precipitation over the monsoon region. Comparatively, a 14% solar reduction over the poles can effectively prevent the polar summer temperature increase and sea-ice retreat. However, caused by the increased temperature gradient, polar solar shading increases the storm activity at high-latitudes, especially during summer when the solar reduction reaches its maximum amplitude. Our simulations show that solar shading could be an effective way to stabilize the polar cryosphere. Nevertheless, it has a strong impact on the hydrological cycle and provides a heterogenous regional climate signal.

Recent variability in West African monsoon rainfall has been shown to be influenced by multiple ocean-atmosphere modes, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. How these modes will change in response to long term forcing is less well understood. Here we use four transient simulations driven by changes in orbital forcing and greenhouse gas concentrations over the past 6,000 years to examine the relationship between West African monsoon rainfall multiscale variability and changes in the modes associated with this variability. All four models show a near linear decline in monsoon rainfall over the past 6,000 years in response to the gradual weakening of the interhemispheric gradient in sea surface temperatures. The only modes that show a long-term trend are those associated with the strengthening of the El Niño Southern Oscillation from the mid-Holocene onwards. There are marked multi-centennial oscillations superimposed on the long-term trend in monsoon rainfall which are strongly associated with multi-centennial oscillations in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and in tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures in all models. However, the influence of different modes on interannual to multi-decadal rainfall variability is not consistent across the models. This is driven in one case by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and changes in Mediterranean sea surface temperatures, by tropical sea surface temperature changes in another, and in the fourth model by a combination of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Furthermore, multiple inter-basin teleconnections are associated with significant rainfall anomalies in each model.

pi_atmosphere_climatology_monthly.nc: Climatological monthly isotope and climate variables for our PI simulation mh_atmosphere_climatology_monthly.nc: Climatological monthly isotope and climate variables for our MHsimulation pi_h2o16_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o16 tracer in the ocean at all depths for PI. pi_h2o18_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o18tracer in the ocean at all depths for PI. mh_h2o16_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o16 tracer in the ocean at all depths for MH. mh_h2o18_ocean.nc: Climatological monthly h2o18tracer in the ocean at all depths for MH.

Satellite-observed sea surface temperature (SST) provides an unprecedented opportunity to evaluate the ongoing global warming and has recently reached a milestone of 40 years temporal coverage. One of the major warming patterns captured by satellites is relatively strong subtropical ocean warming across all ocean basins. This pattern was widely interpreted as a manifestation of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural climate variability. However, we find that the observed warming pattern, characterized by strong warming over the subtropical oceans and mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar oceans, is dynamically consistent with where the surface water converges and diverges. By comparing observations with paleo-reconstructions and simulated short-term and long-term SST response to CO2 forcing, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely in a transient early warming stage constrained by background ocean circulation. In the long term, ocean warming at high latitudes is expected to exceed the temporally dominating subtropical ocean warming. The committed, but lagged, high-latitude ocean warming has potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.

Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present, and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene (MH) and the last interglacial (LIG) were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art Earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the preindustrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including 1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature that is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; 2) a northward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; 3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; 4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; 5) a westward shift of the Indo-Pacific Walker circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and 6) an expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget (i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation). However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and preindustrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity, and density.

Growing evidence indicates that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of the climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealised coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO$$_2$$ 2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to the direct CO$$_2$$ 2 forcing, ocean surface warming, in particular an enhanced subtropical ocean warming, plays an important role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. It expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the mid-latitude temperature gradient, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation and the associated wind pattern. The shift in wind, in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealised, capture the main features of the observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

Numerical modelling enables a comprehensive understanding not only of the Earth's system today, but also of the past. To date, a significant amount of time and effort has been devoted to paleoclimate modeling and analysis, which involves the latest and most advanced Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 (PMIP4). The definition of seasonality, which is influenced by slow variations in the Earth's orbital parameters, plays a key role in determining the calculated seasonal cycle of the climate. In contrast to the classical calendar used today, where the lengths of the months and seasons are fixed, the angular calendar calculates the lengths of the months and seasons according to a fixed number of degrees along the Earth's orbit. When comparing simulation results for different time intervals, it is essential to account for the angular calendar to ensure that the data for comparison is from the same position along the Earth's orbit. Most models use the classical "fixed-length" calendar, which can lead to strong distortions of the monthly and seasonal values, especially for the climate of the past. Here, by analyzing daily outputs from multiple PMIP4 model simulations, we examine calendar effects on surface air temperature and precipitation under mid-Holocene, last interglacial, and pre-industrial climate conditions. We conclude that: (a) The largest cooling bias occurs in autumn when the classical calendar is applied for the mid-Holocene and last interglacial. (b) The sign of the temperature anomalies between the Last Interglacial and pre-industrial in boreal autumn can be reversed after the switch from classical to angular calendar, particularly over the Northern Hemisphere continents. (c) Precipitation over West Africa is overestimated in boreal summer and underestimated in boreal autumn when the "fixed-length" seasonal cycle is applied. (d) Finally, correcting the calendar based on the monthly model results can reduce the biases to a large extent, but not completely eliminate them. In addition, we examine the calendar effects in 3 transient simulations for 6–0 ka by AWI-ESM, MPI-ESM, and IPSL. We find significant discrepancies between adjusted and unadjusted temperature values over ice-free continents for both hemispheres in boreal autumn. While for other seasons the deviations are relatively small. A drying bias can be found in the summer monsoon precipitation in Africa (in the "fixed-length" calendar), whereby the magnitude of bias becomes smaller over time. Overall, our study underlines the importance of the application of calendar transformation in the analysis of climate simulations. Neglecting the calendar effects could lead to a profound artificial distortion of the calculated seasonal cycle of surface air temperature and precipitation. One important fact to be noted here is that the discrepancy in seasonality under different calendars is an analysis bias and is highly depends on the choice of the reference position/date (usually the vernal equinox, which is set to 31th March) on the Earth's ellipse around the sun. Different model groups may apply different reference dates, so ensuring a consistent reference date and seasonal definition is key when we compare results across multiple models.

Southern hemispheric sea-ice impacts ocean circulation and the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the ocean. Sea-ice is therefore one of the key processes in past and future climate change and variability. As climate models are the only tool available to project future climate change, it is important to assess their performance against observations for a range of different climate states. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21 000 years ago) represents an interesting target as it is a relatively well-documented period with climatic conditions very different from preindustrial conditions. Here, we analyze the LGM seasonal Southern Ocean sea-ice cover as simulated in numerical simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) phases 3 and 4. We compare the model outputs to a recently updated compilation of LGM seasonal Southern Ocean sea-ice cover and summer sea surface temperature (SST) to assess the most likely LGM Southern Ocean state. Simulations and paleo-proxy records suggest a fairly well-constrained glacial winter sea-ice edge between 50.5 and 51∘ S. However, the spread in simulated glacial summer sea-ice is wide, ranging from almost ice-free conditions to a sea-ice edge reaching 53∘ S. Combining model outputs and proxy data, we estimate a likely LGM summer sea-ice edge between 61 and 62∘ S and a mean summer sea-ice extent of 14–15×106 km2, which is ∼20 %–30 % larger than previous estimates. These estimates point to a higher seasonality of southern hemispheric sea-ice during the LGM than today. We also analyze the main processes defining the summer sea-ice edge within each of the models. We find that summer sea-ice cover is mainly defined by thermodynamic effects in some models, while the sea-ice edge is defined by the position of Southern Ocean upwelling in others. For models included in both PMIP3 and PMIP4, this thermodynamic or dynamic control on sea-ice is consistent across both experiments. Finally, we find that the impact of changes in large-scale ocean circulation on summer sea-ice within a single model is smaller than the natural range of summer sea-ice cover across the models considered here. This indicates that care must be taken when using a single model to reconstruct past climate regimes.

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a very cold and dry period around 26.5–19 kyr BP, permafrost was widespread across Europe. In this work, we explore the possible benefit of using regional climate model data to improve the permafrost representation in France, decipher how the atmospheric circulation affects the permafrost boundaries in the models, and test the role of ground thermal contraction cracking in wedge development during the LGM. With these aims, criteria for possible thermal contraction cracking of the ground are applied to climate model data for the first time. Our results show that the permafrost extent and ground cracking regions deviate from proxy evidence when the simulated large-scale circulation in both global and regional climate models favours prevailing westerly winds. A colder and, with regard to proxy data, more realistic version of the LGM climate is achieved given more frequent easterly winds conditions. Given the appropriate forcing, an added value of the regional climate model simulation can be achieved in representing permafrost and ground thermal contraction cracking. Furthermore, the model data provide evidence that thermal contraction cracking occurred in Europe during the LGM in a wide latitudinal band south of the probable permafrost border, in agreement with field data analysis. This enables the reconsideration of the role of sand-wedge casts to identify past permafrost regions.

Highlights: • Multi-centennial oscillation with 100–200 years periods is evident in proxy data and model simulations during the Holocene. • Multi-centennial oscillation is a global signal and is more significant in the Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. • None of the external forcings is found to be the sole driver of the multi-centennial variability. • It indicates the multi-centennial oscillation may be due to potential internal drivers and essential feedbacks. Abstract: Variability on centennial to multi-centennial timescales is mentioned as a feature in reconstructions of the Holocene climate. As more long transient model simulations with complex climate models become available and efforts have been made to compile large proxy databases, there is now a unique opportunity to study multi-centennial variability with greater detail and a large amount of data than earlier. This paper presents a spectral analysis of transient Holocene simulations from 9 models and 120 proxy records to find the common signals related to oscillation periods and geographic dependencies and discuss the implications for the potential driving mechanisms. Multi-centennial variability is significant in most proxy records, with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–130 years and an average of 240 years. Spectra of model-based global mean temperature (GMT) agree well with proxy evidence with significant multi-centennial variability in all simulations with the dominant oscillation periods around 120–150 years. It indicates a comparatively good agreement between model and proxy data. A lack of latitudinal dependencies in terms of oscillation period is found in both the model and proxy data. However, all model simulations have the highest spectral density distributed over the Northern hemisphere high latitudes, which could indicate a particular variability sensitivity or potential driving mechanisms in this region. Five models also have differentiated forcings simulations with various combinations of forcing agents. Significant multi-centennial variability with oscillation periods between 100 and 200 years is found in all forcing scenarios, including those with only orbital forcing. The different forcings induce some variability in the system. Yet, none appear to be the predominant driver based on the spectral analysis. Solar irradiance has long been hypothesized to be a primary driver of multi-centennial variability. However, all the simulations without this forcing have shown significant multi-centennial variability. The results then indicate that internal mechanisms operate on multi-centennial timescales, and the North Atlantic-Arctic is a region of interest for this aspect.

The mid-Holocene (6000 years ago) is a standard time period for the evaluation of the simulated response of global climate models using palaeoclimate reconstructions. The latest mid-Holocene simulations are a palaeoclimate entry card for the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP4) component of the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) – hereafter referred to as PMIP4-CMIP6. Here we provide an initial analysis and evaluation of the results of the experiment for the mid-Holocene. We show that state-of-the-art models produce climate changes that are broadly consistent with theory and observations, including increased summer warming of the Northern Hemisphere and associated shifts in tropical rainfall. Many features of the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations were present in the previous generation (PMIP3-CMIP5) of simulations. The PMIP4-CMIP6 ensemble for the mid-Holocene has a global mean temperature change of −0.3 K, which is −0.2 K cooler than the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations predominantly as a result of the prescription of realistic greenhouse gas concentrations in PMIP4-CMIP6. Biases in the magnitude and the sign of regional responses identified in PMIP3-CMIP5, such as the amplification of the northern African monsoon, precipitation changes over Europe, and simulated aridity in mid-Eurasia, are still present in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations. Despite these issues, PMIP4-CMIP6 and the mid-Holocene provide an opportunity both for quantitative evaluation and derivation of emergent constraints on the hydrological cycle, feedback strength, and potentially climate sensitivity.

The earliest part of the Holocene, from 11.5k to 7k (k = 1000 years before present), is a critical transition period between the relatively cold last deglaciation and the warm middle Holocene. It is marked by more pronounced seasonality and reduced greenhouse gases (GHGs) than the present state, as well as by the presence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) and glacial meltwater perturbation. This paper performs experiments under pre-industrial and different early-Holocene regimes with AWI-ESM (Alfred Wegener Institute–Earth System Model), a state-of-the-art climate model with unstructured mesh and varying resolutions, to examine the sensitivity of the simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to early-Holocene insolation, GHGs, topography (including properties of the ice sheet), and glacial meltwater perturbation. In the experiments with early-Holocene Earth orbital parameters and GHGs applied, the AWI-ESM simulation shows a JJA (June–July–August) warming and DJF (December–January–February) cooling over the mid and high latitudes compared with pre-industrial conditions, with amplification over the continents. The presence of the LIS leads to an additional regional cooling over the North America. We also simulate the meltwater event around 8.2k. Big discrepancies are found in the oceanic responses to different locations and magnitudes of freshwater discharge. Our experiments, which compare the effects of freshwater release evenly across the Labrador Sea to a more precise injection along the western boundary of the North Atlantic (the coastal region of LIS), show significant differences in the ocean circulation response, as the former produces a major decline of the AMOC and the latter yields no obvious effect on the strength of the thermohaline circulation. Furthermore, proglacial drainage of Lakes Agassiz and Ojibway leads to a fast spin-down of the AMOC, followed, however, by a gradual recovery. Most hosing experiments lead to a warming over the Nordic Sea and Barents Sea of varying magnitudes, because of an enhanced inflow from lower latitudes and a northward displacement of the North Atlantic deep convection. These processes exist in both of our high- and low-resolution experiments, but with some local discrepancies such as (1) the hosing-induced subpolar warming is much less pronounced in the high-resolution simulations; (2) LIS coastal melting in the high-resolution model leads to a slight decrease in the AMOC; and (3) the convection formation site in the low- and high-resolution experiments differs, in the former mainly over northeastern North Atlantic Ocean, but in the latter over a very shallow subpolar region along the northern edge of the North Atlantic Ocean. In conclusion, we find that our simulations capture spatially heterogeneous responses of the early-Holocene climate.

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a very cold and dry period around 26.5 to 19 thousand years ago, permafrost was widespread across Europe. In this work, we evaluate the potential of regional climate model simulations to reconstruct the permafrost distribution in western Europe during the LGM. With this aim, criteria for possible thermal contraction cracking of the ground are applied to climate model data for the first time. These criteria serve as a precondition for the development of ice and sand wedges, which are a common proxy for past permafrost. Our results show that the permafrost and ground cracking distribution in Europe during the LGM are not consistent with a large-scale circulation with prevailing westerly winds. However, a colder and with regard to proxy data more realistic version of the LGM climate is achieved given more frequent easterly winds conditions. Whereas the permafrost extent and ground cracking regions in the global climate model simulation deviate from proxy evidence, they are in good agreement in the regional counterpart. Given the appropriate forcing, an added value of the regional climate model simulation can thus be achieved. Furthermore, the model data provide evidence that thermal contraction cracking occurred in Europe during the LGM also south of the probable permafrost border. This enables the reconsideration of the significance of ice wedge pseudomorphs and sand wedge casts to understand past climate variations.

The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 000 years ago) has been a major focus for evaluating how well state-of-the-art climate models simulate climate changes as large as those expected in the future using paleoclimate reconstructions. A new generation of climate models has been used to generate LGM simulations as part of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) contribution to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Here, we provide a preliminary analysis and evaluation of the results of these LGM experiments (PMIP4, most of which are PMIP4-CMIP6) and compare them with the previous generation of simulations (PMIP3, most of which are PMIP3-CMIP5). We show that the global averages of the PMIP4 simulations span a larger range in terms of mean annual surface air temperature and mean annual precipitation compared to the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations, with some PMIP4 simulations reaching a globally colder and drier state. However, the multi-model global cooling average is similar for the PMIP4 and PMIP3 ensembles, while the multi-model PMIP4 mean annual precipitation average is drier than the PMIP3 one. There are important differences in both atmospheric and oceanic circulations between the two sets of experiments, with the northern and southern jet streams being more poleward and the changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation being less pronounced in the PMIP4-CMIP6 simulations than in the PMIP3-CMIP5 simulations. Changes in simulated precipitation patterns are influenced by both temperature and circulation changes. Differences in simulated climate between individual models remain large. Therefore, although there are differences in the average behaviour across the two ensembles, the new simulation results are not fundamentally different from the PMIP3-CMIP5 results. Evaluation of large-scale climate features, such as land–sea contrast and polar amplification, confirms that the models capture these well and within the uncertainty of the paleoclimate reconstructions. Nevertheless, regional climate changes are less well simulated: the models underestimate extratropical cooling, particularly in winter, and precipitation changes. These results point to the utility of using paleoclimate simulations to understand the mechanisms of climate change and evaluate model performance.

Growing evidence implies that the atmospheric and oceanic circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift in a warming climate. However, the complexity of climate system, including the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, tends to obfuscate the causal mechanism underlying the circulation shift. Here, using an idealized coupled aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting circulation, by isolating the contributing factors from the direct CO2 forcing, the indirect ocean surface warming, and the wind-stress feedback from the ocean dynamics. We find that, in contrast to direct CO2 forcing, an enhanced subtropical ocean warming plays a leading role in driving the circulation shift. This enhanced subtropical ocean warming emerges from the background Ekman convergence of surface anomalous heat in the absence of the ocean dynamical change. It expands the tropical warm water zone, causes a poleward shift of the meridional temperature gradients, hence forces a corresponding shift in the atmospheric circulation. The shift in the atmospheric circulation in turn drives a shift in the ocean circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealized, capture the main features of observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, storm tracks, precipitation and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that increase in greenhouse gas concentrations not only raises the temperature, but can also systematically shift the climate zones poleward.

Growing evidence suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric circulation experiences a systematic poleward shift under climate change. However, due to the complexity of climate system, such as, the coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere, natural climate variability and land-sea distribution, the dynamical mechanism of such shift is still not fully understood. Here, using an idealized partially coupled ocean and atmosphere aqua-planet model, we explore the mechanism of the shifting oceanic and atmospheric circulation. We find that, in contrast to the rising GHG concentration, the subtropical ocean warming plays a dominant role in driving the shift in the circulation system. More specifically, due to background ocean dynamics, a relatively faster warming over the subtropical ocean drives a poleward shift in the atmospheric circulation. The shift in the atmospheric circulation in turn drives a shift in the oceanic circulation. Our simulations, despite being idealized, capture the main features of observed climate changes, for example, the enhanced subtropical ocean warming, poleward shift of the patterns of near-surface wind, sea level pressure, cloud, precipitation, storm tracks and large-scale ocean circulation, implying that global warming not only raises the temperature, but also systematically shifts the climate zones.​

The importance of Southern Ocean sea ice has come into the focus of polar research in the last couple of decades. Especially in West Antarctica, where sea ice has declined, its distribution and evolution play a critical role for the stability of nearby ice shelves. Organic geochemical analyses of marine surface sediments from the West Antarctic continental shelves permit a biomarker-based reconstruction of sea surface conditions in these vulnerable areas. We analysed highly branched isoprenoids (HBIs), such as the sea-ice proxy IPSO25 and phytoplankton-derived HBI-trienes, but also phytosterols and isoprenoidal glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs), which are established tools for the reconstruction of primary productivity and sea surface temperatures, respectively. The combination of IPSO25 with a phytoplankton marker results in the semi-quantitative sea-ice index PIPSO25, which provides useful reconstructions of sea-ice conditions, avoiding misleading over- or underestimations of sea-ice cover. Comparisons of the biomarker-based sea-ice distribution patterns and GDGT-based temperatures with (1) sea-ice distributions obtained from satellite observations and (2) estimated sea-ice patterns and SSTs deduced from modelled data are in reasonable agreement, but also highlight specific aspects that need to be considered when interpreting biomarker data. We further discuss IPSO25 concentrations in the vicinity of ice shelves, where elevated values could be related to the occurrence of ice shelf basal melt water and platelet ice under landfast sea ice.

We investigate the impact of three different parameterizations of ice–ocean heat exchange on modeled sea ice thickness, sea ice concentration, and water masses. These three parameterizations are (1) an ice bath assumption with the ocean temperature fixed at the freezing temperature; (2) a two-equation turbulent heat flux parameterization with ice–ocean heat exchange depending linearly on the temperature difference between the underlying ocean and the ice–ocean interface, whose temperature is kept at the freezing point of the seawater; and (3) a three-equation turbulent heat flux approach in which the ice–ocean heat flux depends on the temperature difference between the underlying ocean and the ice–ocean interface, whose temperature is calculated based on the local salinity set by the ice ablation rate. Based on model simulations with the stand-alone sea ice model CICE, the ice–ocean model MPIOM, and the climate model COSMOS, we find that compared to the most complex parameterization (3), the approaches (1) and (2) result in thinner Arctic sea ice, cooler water beneath high-concentration ice and warmer water towards the ice edge, and a lower salinity in the Arctic Ocean mixed layer. In particular, parameterization (1) results in the smallest sea ice thickness among the three parameterizations, as in this parameterization all potential heat in the underlying ocean is used for the melting of the sea ice above. For the same reason, the upper ocean layer of the central Arctic is cooler when using parameterization (1) compared to (2) and (3). Finally, in the fully coupled climate model COSMOS, parameterizations (1) and (2) result in a fairly similar oceanic or atmospheric circulation. In contrast, the most realistic parameterization (3) leads to an enhanced Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) mode and a weakened Aleutian Low.

The past provides evidence of abrupt climate shifts and changes in the frequency of climate and weather extremes. We explore the non‐linear response to orbital forcing and then consider climate millennial variability down to daily weather events. Orbital changes are translated into regional responses in temperature, where the precessional response is related to nonlinearities and seasonal biases in the system. We question regularities found in climate events by analyzing the distribution of inter‐event waiting times. Periodicities of about 900 and 1150 years are found in ice cores besides the prominent 1500‐years cycle. However, the variability remains indistinguishable from a random process, suggesting that centennial‐to‐millennial variability is stochastic in nature. New numerical techniques are developed allowing for a high resolution in the dynamically relevant regions like coasts, major upwelling regions, and high latitudes. Using this model, we find a strong sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation depending on where the deglacial meltwater is injected into. Meltwater into the Mississippi and near Labrador hardly affect the large‐scale ocean circulation, whereas subpolar hosing mimicking icebergs yields a quasi shutdown. The same multi‐scale approach is applied to radiocarbon simulations enabling a dynamical interpretation of marine sediment cores. Finally, abrupt climate events also have counterparts in the recent climate records, revealing a close link between climate variability, the statistics of North Atlantic weather patterns, and extreme events.

An abundance of evidence indicates that the tropics are expanding. Despite many attempts to decipher the cause, the underlying dynamical mechanism driving tropical expansion is still not entirely clear. Here, based on observations, multimodel simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and purposefully designed numerical experiments, the variations and trends of the tropical width are explored from a regional perspective. We find that the width of the tropics closely follows the displacement of oceanic midlatitude meridional temperature gradients (MMTG). Under global warming, as a first‐order response, the subtropical ocean experiences more surface warming because of the mean Ekman convergence of anomalously warm water. The enhanced subtropical warming, which is partially independent of natural climate oscillations, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, leads to poleward advance of the MMTG and drives the tropical expansion. Our results, supported by both observations and model simulations, imply that global warming may have already significantly contributed to the ongoing tropical expansion, especially over the ocean‐dominant Southern Hemisphere.

International audience; Lack of constraint on spatial and long-term temporal variability of the El Niño southern Oscillation (ENSO) and its sensitivity to external forcing limit our ability to evaluate climate models and ENSO future projections. Current knowledge of Holocene ENSO variability derived from paleoclimate reconstructions does not separate the role of insolation forcing from internal climate variability. Using an updated synthesis of coral and bivalve monthly resolved records, we build composite records of seasonality and interannual variability in four regions of the tropical Pacific: Eastern Pacific (EP), Central Pacific (CP), Western Pacific (WP) and South West Pacific (SWP). An analysis of the uncertainties due to the sampling of chaotic multidecadal to centennial variability by short records allows for an objective comparison with transient simulations (mid-Holocene to present) performed using four different Earth System models. Sea surface temperature and pseudo-δ18O are used in model-data comparisons to assess the potential influence of hydroclimate change on records. We confirm the significance of the Holocene ENSO minimum (HEM) 3-6ka compared to low frequency unforced modulation of ENSO, with a reduction of ENSO variance of ∼50 % in EP and ∼80 % in CP. The approach suggests that the increasing trend of ENSO since 6ka can be attributed to insolation, while models underestimate ENSO sensitivity to orbital forcing by a factor of 4.7 compared to data, even when accounting for the large multidecadal variability. Precession-induced change in seasonal temperature range is positively linked to ENSO variance in EP and to a lesser extent in other regions, in both models and observations. Our regional approach yields insights into the past spatial expression of ENSO across the tropical Pacific. In the SWP, today under the influence of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), interannual variability was increased by ∼200 % during the HEM, indicating that SPCZ variability is independent from ENSO on millennial time scales.

In the last decades, changing climate conditions have had a severe impact on sea ice at the Western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP), an area rapidly transforming under global warming. To study the development of spring sea ice and environmental conditions in the pre-satellite era we investigated three short marine sediment cores for their biomarker inventory with particular focus on the sea ice proxy IPSO25 and micropaleontological proxies. The core sites in the Bransfield Strait are located in shelf to deep basin areas characterized by a complex oceanographic frontal system, coastal influence and sensitivity to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. We analyzed geochemical bulk parameters, biomarkers (highly branched isoprenoids, glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, sterols), and diatom abundances and diversity over the past 200 years (210Pb dating), and compared them to observational data, sedimentary and ice core climate archives as well as results from numerical models. Based on biomarkers we could identify four different stratigraphic units with (1) stable conditions and moderate sea ice cover before 1860, (2) low to moderate sea ice cover between 1860 and 1930, (3) high seasonal variability and changes in sea ice regimes from 1930 to 1990 and (4) a shift to increasing sea ice cover despite anthropogenic warming since 1990. Although IPSO25 concentrations correspond quite well with satellite sea ice observations for the past 40 years, we note discrepancies between the biomarker-based sea ice estimates and the long-term model output for the past 200 years, ice core records and reconstructed atmospheric circulation patterns such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We propose that the sea ice biomarker proxies IPSO25 and PIPSO25 are not linearly related to sea ice cover and, additionally, each core site reflects specific, local environmental conditions. High IPSO25 and PIPSO25 values may not be directly interpreted as referring to high spring sea ice cover because variable sea ice conditions and enhanced nutrient supply may affect the production of both the sea-ice associated and phytoplankton-derived (open marine, pelagic) biomarker lipids. For a more meaningful interpretation we recommend to carefully consider individually biomarker records to distinguish between cold, sea ice favoring and warm, sea ice diminishing environmental conditions.

Recent evidence shows that wind‐driven ocean currents, like the western boundary currents, are strongly affected by global warming. However, due to insufficient observations both on temporal and spatial scales, the impact of climate change on large‐scale ocean gyres is still not clear. Here, based on satellite observations of sea surface height and sea surface temperature, we find a consistent poleward shift of the major ocean gyres. Due to strong natural variability, most of the observed ocean gyre shifts are not statistically significant, implying that natural variations may contribute to the observed trends. However, climate model simulations forced with increasing greenhouse gases suggest that the observed shift is most likely to be a response of global warming. The displacement of ocean gyres, which is coupled with the poleward shift of extratropical atmospheric circulation, has broad impacts on ocean heat transport, regional sea level rise, and coastal ocean circulation.

The Last interglacial (LIG) is a period with increased summer insolation at high northern latitudes, which results in strong changes in the terrestrial and marine cryosphere. Understanding the mechanisms for this response via climate modelling and comparing the models’ representation of climate reconstructions is one of the objectives set up by the Paleoclimate Mod-elling Intercomparison Project for its contribution to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Here we analyse the results from 12 climate models in terms of Arctic sea ice. The mean pre-industrial to LIG reduction in minimum sea ice area (SIA) reaches 59 % (multi-model mean LIG area is 2.21 mill. km2, compared to 5.85 mill. km2 for the PI), and the range of model results for LIG minimum sea ice area (from 0.02 to 5.65 mill. km2) is larger than for PI (from 4.10 to 8.30 mill. km2). On the other hand there is little change for the maximum sea ice area (which is 12 mill. km2 for both the PI and the LIG, with a standard deviation of 1.04 mill. km2 for PI and 1.21 mill. km2 for LIG). To evaluate the model results we synthesize LIG sea ice data from marine cores collected in the Arctic Ocean, Nordic Seas and northern North Atlantic. South of 78° N in the Atlantic and Nordic seas the LIG was seasonally ice-free. North of 78° N there are some discrepancies between sea-ice re-constructions based on dinocysts/foraminifers/ostracods and IP25: some sites have both seasonal and perennial interpretations based on the same core, but different indicators. Because of the conflicting interpretations it is not possible for any one model to match every data point in our data synthesis, or say whether the Arctic was seasonally ice-free. Drivers for the inter-model differences are: different phasing of the up and down short-wave anomalies over the Arctic ocean, associated with differences in model albedo; possible cloud property differences, in terms of optical depth; LIG ocean circulation changes which occur for some, but not all, LIG simulations. Finally we note that inter-comparisons between the LIG simulations, and simulations with moderate CO2 increase (during the transition to high CO2 levels), may yield insight into likely 21C Arctic sea ice changes using these LIG simulations.