Search

We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The overall measure, AI Economy Score, robustly predicts future economic indicators such as GDP growth, production, and employment, both in the short term and to 10 quarters. This predictive power is incremental to that of existing measures, including survey forecasts. Moreover, industry and firm-level measures provide valuable information about sector-specific and individual firm activities. Our findings suggest that managerial expectations carry unique insights about economic activities, with implications for both macroeconomic and microeconomic decision-making., Comment: 26 Pages, 3 Figures, 11 Tables

We create a firm-level ChatGPT investment score, based on conference calls, that measures managers' anticipated changes in capital expenditures. We validate the score with interpretable textual content and its strong correlation with CFO survey responses. The investment score predicts future capital expenditure for up to nine quarters, controlling for Tobin's $q$ and other determinants, implying the investment score provides incremental information about firms' future investment opportunities. The investment score also separately forecasts future total, intangible, and R\&D investments. Consistent with theoretical predictions, high-investment-score firms experience significant positive short-term returns upon disclosure, and negative long-run future abnormal returns. We demonstrate ChatGPT's applicability to measure other policies, such as dividends and employment., Comment: 34 pages, 5 Figures, 18 Tables

We examine a century of radial velocity, visual magnitude, and astrometric observations of the nearest red supergiant, Betelgeuse, in order to reexamine the century-old assertion that Betelgeuse might be a spectroscopic binary. These data reveal Betelgeuse varying stochastically over years and decades due to its boiling, convective envelope, periodically with a $ 5.78$~yr long secondary period, and quasi-periodically from pulsations with periods of several hundred days. We show that the long secondary period is consistent between astrometric and RV datasets, and argue that it indicates a low-mass companion to Betelgeuse, less than a solar mass, orbiting in a 2,110 day period at a separation of just over twice Betelgeuse's radius. The companion star would be nearly twenty times less massive and a million times fainter than Betelgeuse, with similar effective temperature, effectively hiding it in plain sight near one of the best-studied stars in the night sky. The astrometric data favor an edge-on binary with orbital plane aligned with Betelgeuse's measured spin axis. Tidal spin-orbit interaction drains angular momentum from the orbit and spins up Betelgeuse, explaining the spin--orbit alignment and Betelgeuse's anomalously rapid spin. In the future, the orbit will decay until the companion is swallowed by Betelgeuse in the next 10,000 years., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journals, comments welcome

Disc winds and planet-disc interactions are two crucial mechanisms that define the structure, evolution and dispersal of protoplanetary discs. While winds are capable of removing material from discs, eventually leading to their dispersal, massive planets can shape their disc by creating sub-structures such as gaps and spiral arms. We study the interplay between an X-ray photoevaporative disc wind and the substructures generated due to planet-disc interactions to determine how their mutual interactions affect the disc's and the planet's evolution. We perform three-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of viscous ($\alpha = 6.9\cdot10^{-4}$) discs that host a Jupiter-like planet and undergo X-ray photoevaporation. We trace the gas flows within the disc and wind and measure the accretion rate onto the planet, as well as the gravitational torque that is acting on it. Our results show that the planetary gap takes away the wind's pressure support, allowing wind material to fall back into the gap. This opens new pathways for material from the inner disc (and part of the outer disc) to be redistributed through the wind towards the gap. Consequently, the gap becomes shallower, and the flow of mass across the gap in both directions is significantly increased, as well as the planet's mass-accretion rate (by factors $\approx 5$ and $\approx 2$, respectively). Moreover, the wind-driven redistribution results in a denser inner disc and less dense outer disc, which, combined with the recycling of a significant portion of the inner wind, leads to longer lifetimes of the inner disc, contrary to the expectation in a planet-induced photoevaporation (PIPE) scenario that has been proposed in the past., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A; 15+3 pages, 12+3 figures

This paper aims at revisit the physical and dynamical properties of the warm atomic gas in the inner disk region of classical T Tauri stars (CTTs) and relate them to the properties of the outer dusty disk. We used the high resolution (R=115,000) spectra of 36 CTTs observed as part of the GHOsT project and analysed the profile and luminosity of the brightest optical forbidden lines, namely [OI]630 and 557nm, [SII]406 and 673nm, and [NII]658nm. We find that in about 40% of sources the so-called narrow low-velocity component (NLVC) display a peak velocity compatible with the stellar velocity. In these sources, that typically show lower mass accretion rates and the absence of a jet, the [OI]630nm profiles are well fitted by a simple Keplerian disk model, indicating that the emission from the disk is dominant with respect to the wind contribution. For transitional disks (TD), no correlation is found between $R_{kep}$, derived from the line HWHM, and the size of the dust cavity. We also see an anti-correlation between the [OI] 557/630 nm ratio and $R_{kep}$, which suggests that the [OI] emitting region expands as the gas cools and becomes less dense. We confirmed previous findings on the density and temperature ranges implied by the line ratios, and additionally constrained the ionisation fraction in the NLVC to be < 0.1. We however discuss the limits of applying this diagnostic to winds that are not spatially resolved. For the outflow component, we estimated the mass-loss for both the disk winds and jets and compared the results with X-ray photoevaporative models. We conclude that without better knowledge of the wind geometry, and given the limitation of the diagnostics, the mass-loss in the wind traced by the LVC cannot be constrained better than a factor of 100, with a mass-loss/mass-accretion ratio spanning between ~ 0.01 and more than 1., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy and Astrophysics

Betelgeuse, a red supergiant star of semi-regular variability, reached a historical minimum brightness in February 2020, known as the Great Dimming. Even though the brightness has returned to the values prior to the Great Dimming now, it continues to exhibit highly unusual behavior. Our goal is to study long-term dynamics of the photosphere, including during the Great Dimming. We applied the tomographic method, which allows different layers in the stellar atmosphere to be probed in order to reconstruct depth-dependent velocity fields. The method is based on the construction of spectral masks by grouping spectral lines from specific optical depths. These masks are cross-correlated with the observed spectra to recover the velocity field inside each atmospheric layer. We obtained about 2800 spectra over the past 15 years that were observed with the STELLA robotic telescope in Tenerife. We analyzed the variability of five different layers of Betelgeuse's photosphere. We found phase shift between the layers, as well as between the variability of velocity and photometry. The time variations of the widths of the cross-correlation function reveal propagation of two shockwaves during the Great Dimming. For about two years after the dimming, the timescale of variability was different between the inner and outer photospheric layers. By 2022, all the layers were pulsating with higher frequency corresponding with the first overtone. The combination of the extensive high-resolution spectroscopic data set with the tomographic method revealed the variable velocity fields in the photosphere of Betelgeuse, for the first time in such detail. Our results demonstrate that powerful shocks are the triggering mechanism for episodic mass-loss events, which may be the missing component to explain the mass-loss process in red supergiants., Comment: 14 pages, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

This paper addresses the challenges of detecting anomalies in cellular networks in an interpretable way and proposes a new approach using variational autoencoders (VAEs) that learn interpretable representations of the latent space for each Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in the dataset. This enables the detection of anomalies based on reconstruction loss and Z-scores. We ensure the interpretability of the anomalies via additional information centroids (c) using the K-means algorithm to enhance representation learning. We evaluate the performance of the model by analyzing patterns in the latent dimension for specific KPIs and thereby demonstrate the interpretability and anomalies. The proposed framework offers a faster and autonomous solution for detecting anomalies in cellular networks and showcases the potential of deep learning-based algorithms in handling big data.

Diffractive optical elements (DOEs) have a wide range of applications in optics and photonics, thanks to their capability to perform complex wavefront shaping in a compact form. However, widespread applicability of DOEs is still limited, because existing fabrication methods are cumbersome and expensive. Here, we present a simple and cost-effective fabrication approach for solid, high-performance DOEs. The method is based on conjugating two nearly refractive index-matched solidifiable transparent materials. The index matching allows for extreme scaling up of the elements in the axial dimension, which enables simple fabrication of a template using commercially available 3D printing at tens-of-micrometer resolution. We demonstrated the approach by fabricating and using DOEs serving as microlens arrays, vortex plates, including for highly sensitive applications such as vector beam generation and super-resolution microscopy using MINSTED, and phase-masks for three-dimensional single-molecule localization microscopy. Beyond the advantage of making DOEs widely accessible by drastically simplifying their production, the method also overcomes difficulties faced by existing methods in fabricating highly complex elements, such as high-order vortex plates, and spectrum-encoding phase masks for microscopy.

Disc winds and planet formation are considered to be two of the most important mechanisms that drive the evolution and dispersal of protoplanetary discs and in turn define the environment in which planets form and evolve. While both have been studied extensively in the past, we combine them into one model by performing three-dimensional radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of giant planet hosting discs that are undergoing X-ray photo-evaporation, with the goal to analyse the interactions between both mechanisms. In order to study the effect on observational diagnostics, we produce synthetic observations of commonly used wind-tracing forbidden emission lines with detailed radiative transfer and photo-ionisation calculations. We find that a sufficiently massive giant planet carves a gap in the gas disc that is deep enough to affect the structure and kinematics of the pressure-driven photo-evaporative wind significantly. This effect can be strong enough to be visible in the synthetic high-resolution observations of some of our wind diagnostic lines, such as the [OI] 6300 \r{A} or [SII] 6730 \r{A} lines. When the disc is observed at inclinations around 40{\deg} and higher, the spectral line profiles may exhibit a peak in the redshifted part of the spectrum, which cannot easily be explained by simple wind models alone. Moreover, massive planets can induce asymmetric substructures within the disc and the photo-evaporative wind, giving rise to temporal variations of the line profiles that can be strong enough to be observable on timescales of less than a quarter of the planet's orbital period., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 13+3 pages, 8+1 figures

Taking into account information across the temporal domain helps to improve environment perception in autonomous driving. However, it has not been studied so far whether temporally fused neural networks are vulnerable to deliberately generated perturbations, i.e. adversarial attacks, or whether temporal history is an inherent defense against them. In this work, we study whether temporal feature networks for object detection are vulnerable to universal adversarial attacks. We evaluate attacks of two types: imperceptible noise for the whole image and locally-bound adversarial patch. In both cases, perturbations are generated in a white-box manner using PGD. Our experiments confirm, that attacking even a portion of a temporal input suffices to fool the network. We visually assess generated perturbations to gain insights into the functioning of attacks. To enhance the robustness, we apply adversarial training using 5-PGD. Our experiments on KITTI and nuScenes datasets demonstrate, that a model robustified via K-PGD is able to withstand the studied attacks while keeping the mAP-based performance comparable to that of an unattacked model., Comment: Accepted for publication at ECCV 2022 SAIAD workshop

The bright supergiant, Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis, HD 39801), underwent a historic optical dimming during 2020 January 27 $-$ February 13. Many imaging and spectroscopic observations across the electromagnetic spectrum were obtained prior to, during, and subsequent to this dimming event. These observations of Betelgeuse reveal that a substantial surface mass ejection (SME) occurred and moved out through the extended atmosphere of the supergiant. A photospheric shock occurred in 2019 January - March, progressed through the extended atmosphere of the star during the following 11 months and led to dust production in the atmosphere. Resulting from the substantial mass outflow, the stellar photosphere was left with lower temperatures and the chromosphere with a lower density. The mass ejected could represent a significant fraction of the total annual mass loss rate from the star suggesting that episodic mass loss events can contribute an amount comparable to that of the stellar wind. Following the SME, Betelgeuse was left with a cooler average photosphere, an unusual short photometric oscillation, reduced velocity excursions, and the disappearance of the $\sim$400-day pulsation in the optical and radial velocity for more than two years following the Great Dimming., Comment: The Astrophysical Journal, 2022, to be published Aug 4, 2022

Due to its immediate response, the electro-optic effect is exploited for high-frequency phase and power modulation and for beam deflection. Besides the immediate response, electro-optic materials exhibit creep due to relaxation processes in the material, which results in a gradual settling of the response when a voltage is applied for tens of milliseconds. A bi-exponential filter can compensate this behavior, reported here for electro-optic deflectors made of AD*P, such that these deflectors can be used over the entire frequency range of the driver with a residual settling error <0.001 of the deflection., Comment: 7 pages, 7 figures, 7 references

The investigation of samples with a spatial resolution in the nanometer range relies on the precise and stable positioning of the sample. Due to inherent mechanical instabilities of typical sample stages in optical microscopes, it is usually required to control and/or monitor the sample position during the acquisition. The tracking of sparsely distributed fiducial markers at high speed allows stabilizing the sample position at millisecond time scales. For this purpose, we present a scalable fitting algorithm with significantly improved performance for two-dimensional Gaussian fits as compared to Gpufit., Comment: 16 pages

The use of deep neural networks (DNNs) in safety-critical applications like mobile health and autonomous driving is challenging due to numerous model-inherent shortcomings. These shortcomings are diverse and range from a lack of generalization over insufficient interpretability to problems with malicious inputs. Cyber-physical systems employing DNNs are therefore likely to suffer from safety concerns. In recent years, a zoo of state-of-the-art techniques aiming to address these safety concerns has emerged. This work provides a structured and broad overview of them. We first identify categories of insufficiencies to then describe research activities aiming at their detection, quantification, or mitigation. Our paper addresses both machine learning experts and safety engineers: The former ones might profit from the broad range of machine learning topics covered and discussions on limitations of recent methods. The latter ones might gain insights into the specifics of modern ML methods. We moreover hope that our contribution fuels discussions on desiderata for ML systems and strategies on how to propel existing approaches accordingly., Comment: 94 pages

We present theoretical predictions for the free-free emission at cm wavelengths obtained from photoevaporation and MHD wind disk models adjusted to the case of the TW Hydrae young stellar object. For this system, disk photoevaporation with heating due to the high-energy photons from the star has been proposed as a possible mechanism to open the gap observed in the dust emission with ALMA. We show that the photoevaporation disk model predicts a radial profile for the free-free emission that is made of two main spatial components, one originated from the bound disk atmosphere at 0.5-1 au from the star, and another more extended component from the photoevaporative wind at larger disk radii. We also show that the stellar X-ray luminosity has a significant impact on both these components. The predicted radio emission from the MHD wind model has a smoother radial distribution which extends to closer distances to the star than the photoevaporation case. We also show that a future radio telescope such as the \textit{Next Generation Very Large Array} (ngVLA) would have enough sensitivity and angular resolution to spatially resolve the main structures predicted by these models., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

For reliable environment perception, the use of temporal information is essential in some situations. Especially for object detection, sometimes a situation can only be understood in the right perspective through temporal information. Since image-based object detectors are currently based almost exclusively on CNN architectures, an extension of their feature extraction with temporal features seems promising. Within this work we investigate different architectural components for a CNN-based temporal information extraction. We present a Temporal Feature Network which is based on the insights gained from our architectural investigations. This network is trained from scratch without any ImageNet information based pre-training as these images are not available with temporal information. The object detector based on this network is evaluated against the non-temporal counterpart as baseline and achieves competitive results in an evaluation on the KITTI object detection dataset.

The visual STELLA echelle spectrograph (SES-VIS) is a new instrument for the STELLA-II telescope at the Iza\~na observatory on Tenerife. Together with the original SES spectrograph - which will still be used in the near IR - and a new H&K-optimized spectrograph, which is currently in the design phase, it will extend the capabilities of STELLA with the follow up of planetary candidates from space missions (TESS, PLATO2). SES-VIS is optimized for precise radial velocity determinations and long term stability. We have developed a ZEMAX based software package to create simulated spectra, which are then extracted using our new data reduction package developed for the PEPSI spectrograph. The focus in this paper has been put on calibration spectra, and the full range of available calibration sources (flat field, Th-Ar, and Fabry-Perot etalon), which can be compared to actual commissioning data once they are available. Furthermore we tested for the effect of changes of the environmental parameters to the wavelength calibration precision.

The current STELLA Echelle spectrograph (SES), which records 390nm to 870nm in one shot at a spectral resolution of 55000, will be replaced by a suite of specialized spectrographs in three spectral bands. The UV will be covered by a newly designed H&K spectrograph covering 380nm to 470nm (SES-H&K), the visual band (470nm - 690nm) will be covered by SES-VIS, which is a vacuum-stabilized spectrograph designed for high radial-velocity accuracy, and the NIR will be covered by the current SES spectrograph from 690nm to 1050nm. In order to improve the UV transmission, and to accommodate three different fibre-feeds, the prime focus corrector of the telescope will be refurbished, leading to an optical system with the f/2 1200mm spherical primary, a 4-lens collimator with 2 arcsec aperture, atmospheric dispersion corrector (ADC), and two dichroic beam splitters, feeding 3 separate fibre feeds for the three bands. The newly designed H&K spectrograph will be an Echelle spectrograph, based on a R4-grating with 41.6 l/mm and 110mmx420mm, using a f/5 camera and the cross-disperser in double pass (as in TRAFICOS, MIKE, KPF), using 21 spectral orders. The spectral resolution of all three spectrographs will be comparable to the 55000 of the current SES.

We present our final orbit for the late-type spectroscopic binary HD 1. Employed are 553 spectra from 13 years of observations with our robotic STELLA facility and its high-resolution echelle spectrograph SES. Its long-term radial-velocity stability is $\approx$50m/s . A single radial velocity of HD 1 reached a rms residual of 63m/s, close to the expected precision. Spectral lines of HD 1 are rotationally broadened with $v\sin i$ of 9.1$\pm$0.1 km/s . The overall spectrum appears single-lined and yielded an orbit with an eccentricity of 0.5056$\pm$0.0005 and a semi-amplitude of 4.44km/s . We constrain and refine the orbital period based on the SES data alone to 2318.70$\pm$0.32d, compared to 2317.8$\pm$1.1d when including the older data set published by DAO and Cambridge/Coravel. Owing to the higher precision of the SES data, we base the orbit calculation only on the STELLA/SES velocities in order not to degrade its solution. We redetermine astrophysical parameters for HD 1 from spectrum synthesis and, together with the new {\it Gaia} DR-2 parallax, suggest a higher luminosity than published previously. We conclude that HD 1 is a slightly metal-deficient K0 III-II giant 217 times more luminous than the Sun. The secondary remains invisible at optical wavelengths. We present evidence for the existence of a third component.

HIRES will be the high-resolution spectrograph of the European Extremely Large Telescope at optical and near-infrared wavelengths. It consists of three fibre-fed spectrographs providing a wavelength coverage of 0.4-1.8 mic (goal 0.35-1.8 mic) at a spectral resolution of ~100,000. The fibre-feeding allows HIRES to have several, interchangeable observing modes including a SCAO module and a small diffraction-limited IFU in the NIR. Therefore, it will be able to operate both in seeing and diffraction-limited modes. ELT-HIRES has a wide range of science cases spanning nearly all areas of research in astrophysics and even fundamental physics. Some of the top science cases will be the detection of bio signatures from exoplanet atmospheres, finding the fingerprints of the first generation of stars (PopIII), tests on the stability of Nature's fundamental couplings, and the direct detection of the cosmic acceleration. The HIRES consortium is composed of more than 30 institutes from 14 countries, forming a team of more than 200 scientists and engineers., Comment: to appear in the ESO Messenger No.182, December 2020

The bright supergiant, Betelgeuse (Alpha Orionis, HD 39801) experienced a visual dimming during 2019 December and the first quarter of 2020 reaching an historic minimum 2020 February 7$-$13. During 2019 September-November, prior to the optical dimming event, the photosphere was expanding. At the same time, spatially resolved ultraviolet spectra using the Hubble Space Telescope/Space Telescope Imaging Spectrograph revealed a substantial increase in the ultraviolet spectrum and Mg II line emission from the chromosphere over the southern hemisphere of the star. Moreover, the temperature and electron density inferred from the spectrum and C II diagnostics also increased in this hemisphere. These changes happened prior to the Great Dimming Event. Variations in the Mg II k-line profiles suggest material moved outwards in response to the passage of a pulse or acoustic shock from 2019 September through 2019 November. It appears that this extraordinary outflow of material from the star, likely initiated by convective photospheric elements, was enhanced by the coincidence with the outward motions in this phase of the $\sim$400 day pulsation cycle. These ultraviolet observations appear to provide the connecting link between the known large convective cells in the photosphere and the mass ejection event that cooled to form the dust cloud in the southern hemisphere imaged in 2019 December, and led to the exceptional optical dimming of Betelgeuse in 2020 February., Comment: 11 pages, 8 figures, Astrophysical Journal, accepted

High resolution spectra of typical wind diagnostics ([OI] 6300 \r{A} and other forbidden emission lines) can often be decomposed into multiple components: high-velocity components with blueshifts up to several 100 km/s are usually attributed to fast jets, while narrow (NLVC) and broad (BLVC) low-velocity components are believed to trace slower disc winds. Under the assumption that the line-broadening is dominated by Keplerian rotation, several studies have found that the BLVCs should trace gas launched between 0.05 and 0.5 au and correlations between the properties of BLVCs and NLVCs have been interpreted as evidence for the emission tracing an extended MHD wind and not a photoevaporative wind. We calculated synthetic line profiles obtained from detailed photoionisation calculations of an X-ray photoevaporation model and a simple MHD wind model and analyzed the emission regions of different diagnostic lines and the resulting spectral profiles. The photoevaporation model reproduces most of the observed NLVCs but not the BLVCs or HVCs. The MHD model is able to reproduce all components but produces Keplerian double peaks at average inclinations that are rarely observed. The combination of MHD and photoevaporative winds could solve this problem. Our results suggest that the Gaussian decomposition does not allow for a clear distinction of flux from different wind regions and that the line broadening is often dominated by the velocity gradient in the outflow rather than by Keplerian rotation. We show that observed correlations between BLVC and NLVC do not necessarily imply a common origin in an extended MHD wind., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 20+3 pages, 14+2 figures