25 results on '"Viviroli D"'
Search Results
2. Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) - Data Set
- Author
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Hanus, S, Schuster, L., Burek, P, Maussion, F, Wada, Y, Viviroli, D, Hanus, S, Schuster, L., Burek, P, Maussion, F, Wada, Y, and Viviroli, D
- Abstract
GENERAL INFORMATION The data and scripts used for the analysis of the manuscript "Coupling a large-scale glacier and hydrological model (OGGM v1.5.3 and CWatM V1.08) – Towards an improved representation of mountain water resources in global assessments" When using this dataset, please refer to the original publication in addition to this Zenodo repository.
- Published
- 2023
3. An introduction to the hydrological modelling system PREVAH and its pre- and post-processing-tools
- Author
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Viviroli, D., Zappa, M., Gurtz, J., and Weingartner, R.
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- 2009
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers
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Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D.A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., Baillie, J. E.M., Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D.A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J. E.M.
- Published
- 2020
5. Increasing dependence of lowland populations on mountain water resources
- Author
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Viviroli, D., Kummu, M., Meybeck, M., Kallio, M., Wada, Y., Viviroli, D., Kummu, M., Meybeck, M., Kallio, M., and Wada, Y.
- Abstract
Mountain areas provide disproportionally high runoff in many parts of the world, but their importance for water resources and food production has not been clarified from the viewpoint of the lowland areas downstream. Here we quantify the extent to which lowland inhabitants potentially depend on runoff contributions from mountain areas (39% of the global land mass). We show that ~1.5 billion people (24% of the world’s lowland population) are projected to depend critically on runoff contributions from mountains by the mid-twenty-first century under a ‘middle of the road’ scenario, compared with ~0.2 billion (7%) in the 1960s. This striking rise is mainly due to increased local water consumption in the lowlands, whereas changes in mountain and lowland runoff play only a minor role. We further show that one-third of the global lowland area equipped for irrigation is currently located in regions that both depend heavily on runoff contributions from mountains and make unsustainable use of local blue water resources, a figure that is likely to rise to well over 50% in the coming decades. Our findings imply that mountain areas should receive particular attention in water resources management and underscore the protection they deserve in efforts towards sustainable development.
- Published
- 2020
6. Importance and vulnerability of the world’s water towers
- Author
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Immerzeel, W., Lutz, A., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B., Elmore, A., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernandez, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P., Kulkarni, A., Mayewski, P., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., Baillie, J., Immerzeel, W., Lutz, A., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B., Elmore, A., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernandez, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P., Kulkarni, A., Mayewski, P., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J.
- Abstract
Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here, we present a global Water Tower Index, which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountain areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world’s most important and vulnerable water towers.
- Published
- 2020
7. Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers
- Author
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Immerzeel, W. W., Lutz, A. F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B. J., Elmore, A. C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J. S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P. D.A., Kulkarni, A. V., Mayewski, P. A., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T. H., Pellicciotti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A. B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., Baillie, J. E.M., Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, Hydrologie, Landscape functioning, Geocomputation and Hydrology, Landdegradatie en aardobservatie, University of Zurich, Immerzeel, W W, University of St Andrews. School of Geography & Sustainable Development, and University of St Andrews. Bell-Edwards Geographic Data Institute
- Subjects
Conservation of Natural Resources ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0208 environmental biotechnology ,Vulnerability ,Water supply ,Water en Voedsel ,F800 ,hydrology ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Natural (archaeology) ,Hydrology (agriculture) ,Environmental protection ,Mountains ,Water Supply ,11. Sustainability ,Taverne ,Life Science ,Humans ,Ecosystem ,910 Geography & travel ,General ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Downstream (petroleum industry) ,1000 Multidisciplinary ,GE ,Multidisciplinary ,Water and Food ,business.industry ,Altitude ,Water stress ,Water ,DAS ,15. Life on land ,6. Clean water ,020801 environmental engineering ,10122 Institute of Geography ,Socioeconomic Factors ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,business ,Tower ,GE Environmental Sciences - Abstract
This project was funded as part of the National Geographic Society and Rolex partnership to support a Perpetual Planet. Mountains are the water towers of the world, supplying a substantial part of both natural and anthropogenic water demands1,2. They are highly sensitive and prone to climate change3,4, yet their importance and vulnerability have not been quantified at the global scale. Here, we present a global Water Tower Index, which ranks all water towers in terms of their water-supplying role and the downstream dependence of ecosystems and society. For each tower, we assess its vulnerability related to water stress, governance, hydropolitical tension and future climatic and socio-economic changes. We conclude that the most important water towers are also among the most vulnerable, and that climatic and socio-economic changes will affect them profoundly. This could negatively impact 1.9 billion people living in (0.3 billion) or directly downstream of (1.6 billion) mountain areas. Immediate action is required to safeguard the future of the world’s most important and vulnerable water towers. Postprint
- Published
- 2019
8. High Mountain Areas
- Author
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Hock, R, Rasul, G., Adler, C., Cáceres, B., Gruber, S., Hirabayashi, Y., Jackson, M., Kääb, A., Kang, S., Kutuzov, S., Milner, A., Molau, U., Morin, S., Orlove, B., Steltzer, H., Allen, S., Arenson, L., Baneerjee, S., Barr, I., Bórquez, R., Brown, L., Cao, B., Carey, M., Cogley, G., Fischlin, A., de Sherbinin, A., Eckert, N., Geertsema, M., Hagenstad, M., Honsberg, M., Hood, E., Huss, M., Jimenez Zamora, E., Kotlarski, S., Lefeuvre, P-M, Ignacio López Moreno, J., Lundquist, J., McDowell, G., Mills, S., Mou, C., Nepal, S., Noetzli, J., Palazzi, E., Pepin, N., Rixen, C., Shahgedanova, M., McKenzie Skiles, S., Vincent, C., Viviroli, D., Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A., Yangjee Sherpa, P., Weyer, N., Wouters, B., Yasunari, T., You, Q., Zhang, Y, Kaser, Georg, and Mukherji, Aditi
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componentes ,equilibrio ácido-básico ,Climate Research ,tampón ,del organismo ,respiratorio y metabólico del ,Klimatforskning - Abstract
The cryosphere (including, snow, glaciers, permafrost, lake and river ice) is an integral element of high- mountain regions, which are home to roughly 10% of the global population. Widespread cryosphere changes affect physical, biological and human systems in the mountains and surrounding lowlands, with impacts evident even in the ocean. Building on the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), this chapter assesses new evidence on observed recent and projected changes in the mountain cryosphere as well as associated impacts, risks and adaptation measures related to natural and human systems. Impacts in response to climate changes independently of changes in the cryosphere are not assessed in this chapter. Polar mountains are included in Chapter 3, except those in Alaska and adjacent Yukon, Iceland, and Scandinavia, which are included in this chapter.
- Published
- 2019
9. Supplementary data to: Importance and vulnerability of the world's water towers
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Immerzeel, W.W., Lutz, A.F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B.J., Elmore, A.C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J.S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Kulkarni, A.V., Mayewski, P., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T.H., Pelliccioti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A.B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., Baillie, J.E.M., Immerzeel, W.W., Lutz, A.F., Andrade, M., Bahl, A., Biemans, H., Bolch, T., Hyde, S., Brumby, S., Davies, B.J., Elmore, A.C., Emmer, A., Feng, M., Fernández, A., Haritashya, U., Kargel, J.S., Koppes, M., Kraaijenbrink, P.D.A., Kulkarni, A.V., Mayewski, P., Nepal, S., Pacheco, P., Painter, T.H., Pelliccioti, F., Rajaram, H., Rupper, S., Sinisalo, A., Shrestha, A.B., Viviroli, D., Wada, Y., Xiao, C., Yao, T., and Baillie, J.E.M.
- Published
- 2019
10. Effective precipitation duration for runoff peaks based on catchment modelling
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Sikorska, A. E., Viviroli, D., Seibert, J., Sikorska, A. E., Viviroli, D., and Seibert, J.
- Abstract
Despite precipitation intensities may greatly vary during one flood event, detailed information about these intensities may not be required to accurately simulate floods with a hydrological model which rather reacts to cumulative precipitation sums. This raises two questions: to which extent is it important to preserve sub-daily precipitation intensities and how long does it effectively rain from the hydrological point of view? Both questions might seem straightforward to answer with a direct analysis of past precipitation events but require some arbitrary choices regarding the length of a precipitation event. To avoid these arbitrary decisions, here we present an alternative approach to characterize the effective length of precipitation event which is based on runoff simulations with respect to large floods. More precisely, we quantify the fraction of a day over which the daily precipitation has to be distributed to faithfully reproduce the large annual and seasonal floods which were generated by the hourly precipitation rate time series. New precipitation time series were generated by first aggregating the hourly observed data into daily totals and then evenly distributing them over sub-daily periods (n hours). These simulated time series were used as input to a hydrological bucket-type model and the resulting runoff flood peaks were compared to those obtained when using the original precipitation time series. We define then the effective daily precipitation duration as the number of hours n, for which the largest peaks are simulated best. For nine mesoscale Swiss catchments this effective daily precipitation duration was about half a day, which indicates that detailed information on precipitation intensities is not necessarily required to accurately estimate peaks of the largest annual and seasonal floods. These findings support the use of simple disaggregation approaches to make usage of past daily precipitation observations or daily precipitation simulations (e
- Published
- 2018
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11. Modell PREVAH
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Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), Viviroli, D ( Daniel ), Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), and Viviroli, D ( Daniel )
- Published
- 2013
12. Methoden für die Hochwasserabschätzung
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Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), Viviroli, D ( Daniel ), Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), and Viviroli, D ( Daniel )
- Abstract
Die zur Abschätzung seltener Hochwasserabflüsse eingesetzten Methoden lassen sich in drei Verfahrensgruppen unterteilen: Extremwertstatistik, regionalhydrologische Ansätze und Niederschlag-Abfluss-Modellierung. Bei allen Verfahren bestehen jeweils spezifische Vor- und Nachteile, welche im Folgenden kurz erläutert werden sollen.
- Published
- 2013
13. Ausgewählte Beiträge zur Abschätzung von Hochwasser und Feststofftransport in der Schweiz - Grundlagen, Methoden, Fallbeispiele
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Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), Viviroli, D ( Daniel ), Spreafico, Manfred, Viviroli, Daniel, Spreafico, M ( Manfred ), and Viviroli, D ( Daniel )
- Abstract
Das Bundesgesetz über den Wasserbau hält u.a. fest, dass in allen Landesteilen der Schweiz gleiche Sicherheitsstandards für den Hochwasserschutz garantiert sein müssen, dass die Bevölkerung in den Planungsprozess von Hochwasserschutzmassnahmen eingebunden werden muss und dass nachhaltige Schutzmassnahmen geplant und ausgeführt werden sollen. Ausgehend von diesem Gesetz hat die Nationale Plattform Naturgefahren (PLANAT) einen Vorschlag für den Prozess des integrierten Hochwasserschutzes in der Schweiz mit Grundlagenbereitstellung, Intervention nach Hochwasserereignissen, Instandstellung, Prävention und Vorsorge erstellt. In der vorliegenden Publikation werden ausgewählte Beispiele von Massnahmen im integralen Hochwasserschutz der Schweiz vorgestellt. Prioritär wurden dabei Grundlagen, Methoden und Beispiele aus den Bereichen der Hochwasserabschätzung und des Sedimenttransportes ausgewählt, welche vom Bundesamt für Umwelt in irgendeiner Form unterstützt wurden. Im Kapitel 1 finden sich einige generelle Angaben zum Hochwasserschutz in der Schweiz. Im Kapitel 2 werden Dienstleistungen der Abteilung Hydrologie beim Bundesamt für Umwelt dargestellt. Es wird kurz auf die Messgeräte und Messmethoden eingegangen und dann das Produkt Hochwasserstatistik vorgestellt. Abschliessend werden Hinweise zur Datenverfügbarkeit und Güte von Hochwassermessungen gegeben. In Kapitel 3 folgt ein Überblick über Tätigkeiten auf dem Gebiet der Feststoffbeobachtung in der Schweiz mit Angaben zum Geschiebesammlermessnetz der GHO und Verfahren zur Abschätzung des Geschiebetransportes in Wildbachgebieten. Das Kapitel 4 befasst sich mit dem Problem der Erfassung, Häufigkeit und Analyse von historischen Hochwassern. Daraus werden Konsequenzen abgeleitet. Im Kapitel 5 werden Erkenntnisse aus dem Bereich Umweltveränderungen und deren Auswirkungen auf die Hochwasserabflüsse in der Schweiz aufgezeigt. Ausgegangen wird von Veränderungen die in der Vergangenheit stattgefunden haben und dann wird auf zukü
- Published
- 2013
14. On the risk of obtaining misleading results by pooling streamflow data for trend analyses
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Viviroli, D., Schaedler, B., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Weiler, M., Seibert, Jan, Viviroli, D., Schaedler, B., Schmocker-Fackel, P., Weiler, M., and Seibert, Jan
- Abstract
Floods have broad impacts on nature, society, and the economy. The frequency and intensity of flood events are generally believed to increase with the anticipated changes in temperature and precipitation. Trend analyses are important tools to quantify these changes, but often, they provide inconclusive results, partly because of the limited data availability. One way to overcome this limitation is to pool data from different gauging stations. However, pooling data from different stations may lead to misleading results. For example, using pooled flood data Allamano et al. (2009a) found a considerable increase of flooding risks for Switzerland. Here we demonstrate that the previous finding of increased flooding risks was an artifact of the pooling of stations and the fact that the longer time series came from larger catchments, which tend to have lower values for specific peak flows than smaller catchments. Our results demonstrate the risk of obtaining incorrect statistical conclusions when statistical analyses and data selection are not considered with due care.
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- 2012
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15. Global monthly water stress: II. Water demand and severity of water
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Wada, Y., Beek, L.P.H. van, Viviroli, D., Dürr, H.H., Weingartner, R., Bierkens, M.F.P., Wada, Y., Beek, L.P.H. van, Viviroli, D., Dürr, H.H., Weingartner, R., and Bierkens, M.F.P.
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- 2011
16. The importance of glacier and forest change in hydrological climate-impact studies
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Köplin, N., primary, Schädler, B., additional, Viviroli, D., additional, and Weingartner, R., additional
- Published
- 2013
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17. Relating climate change signals and physiographic catchment properties to clustered hydrological response types
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Köplin, N., primary, Schädler, B., additional, Viviroli, D., additional, and Weingartner, R., additional
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- 2012
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18. Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy
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Viviroli, D., primary, Archer, D. R., additional, Buytaert, W., additional, Fowler, H. J., additional, Greenwood, G. B., additional, Hamlet, A. F., additional, Huang, Y., additional, Koboltschnig, G., additional, Litaor, M. I., additional, López-Moreno, J. I., additional, Lorentz, S., additional, Schädler, B., additional, Schreier, H., additional, Schwaiger, K., additional, Vuille, M., additional, and Woods, R., additional
- Published
- 2011
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19. How does climate change affect mesoscale catchments in Switzerland? – a framework for a comprehensive assessment
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Köplin, N., primary, Viviroli, D., additional, Schädler, B., additional, and Weingartner, R., additional
- Published
- 2010
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20. The hydrological significance of mountains: from regional to global scale
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Viviroli, D., primary and Weingartner, R., additional
- Published
- 2004
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21. Human populations in the world's mountains: Spatio-temporal patterns and potential controls.
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Thornton JM, Snethlage MA, Sayre R, Urbach DR, Viviroli D, Ehrlich D, Muccione V, Wester P, Insarov G, and Adler C
- Subjects
- Humans, Population Density, Climate Change, Ecosystem
- Abstract
Changing climate and human demographics in the world's mountains will have increasingly profound environmental and societal consequences across all elevations. Quantifying current human populations in and near mountains is crucial to ensure that any interventions in these complex social-ecological systems are appropriately resourced, and that valuable ecosystems are effectively protected. However, comprehensive and reproducible analyses on this subject are lacking. Here, we develop and implement an open workflow to quantify the sensitivity of mountain population estimates over recent decades, both globally and for several sets of relevant reporting regions, to alternative input dataset combinations. Relationships between mean population density and several potential environmental covariates are also explored across elevational bands within individual mountain regions (i.e. "sub-mountain range scale"). Globally, mountain population estimates vary greatly-from 0.344 billion (<5% of the corresponding global total) to 2.289 billion (>31%) in 2015. A more detailed analysis using one of the population datasets (GHS-POP) revealed that in ∼35% of mountain sub-regions, population increased at least twofold over the 40-year period 1975-2015. The urban proportion of the total mountain population in 2015 ranged from 6% to 39%, depending on the combination of population and urban extent datasets used. At sub-mountain range scale, population density was found to be more strongly associated with climatic than with topographic and protected-area variables, and these relationships appear to have strengthened slightly over time. Such insights may contribute to improved predictions of future mountain population distributions under scenarios of future climatic and demographic change. Overall, our work emphasizes that irrespective of data choices, substantial human populations are likely to be directly affected by-and themselves affect-mountainous environmental and ecological change. It thereby further underlines the urgency with which the multitudinous challenges concerning the interactions between mountain climate and human societies under change must be tackled., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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- 2022
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22. Climate change risks pushing one-third of global food production outside the safe climatic space.
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Kummu M, Heino M, Taka M, Varis O, and Viviroli D
- Abstract
Food production on our planet is dominantly based on agricultural practices developed during stable Holocene climatic conditions. Although it is widely accepted that climate change perturbs these conditions, no systematic understanding exists on where and how the major risks for entering unprecedented conditions may occur. Here, we address this gap by introducing the concept of safe climatic space (SCS), which incorporates the decisive climatic factors of agricultural production: precipitation, temperature, and aridity. We show that a rapid and unhalted growth of greenhouse gas emissions (SSP5-8.5) could force 31% of the global food crop and 34% of livestock production beyond the SCS by 2081-2100. The most vulnerable areas are South and Southeast Asia and Africa's Sudano-Sahelian Zone, which have low resilience to cope with these changes. Our results underpin the importance of committing to a low-emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), whereupon the extent of food production facing unprecedented conditions would be a fraction., Competing Interests: We declare no competing financial interests., (© 2021 The Authors.)
- Published
- 2021
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23. Marked isotopic variability within and between the Amazon River and marine dissolved black carbon pools.
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Coppola AI, Seidel M, Ward ND, Viviroli D, Nascimento GS, Haghipour N, Revels BN, Abiven S, Jones MW, Richey JE, Eglinton TI, Dittmar T, and Schmidt MWI
- Abstract
Riverine dissolved organic carbon (DOC) contains charcoal byproducts, termed black carbon (BC). To determine the significance of BC as a sink of atmospheric CO
2 and reconcile budgets, the sources and fate of this large, slow-cycling and elusive carbon pool must be constrained. The Amazon River is a significant part of global BC cycling because it exports an order of magnitude more DOC, and thus dissolved BC (DBC), than any other river. We report spatially resolved DBC quantity and radiocarbon (Δ14 C) measurements, paired with molecular-level characterization of dissolved organic matter from the Amazon River and tributaries during low discharge. The proportion of BC-like polycyclic aromatic structures decreases downstream, but marked spatial variability in abundance and Δ14 C values of DBC molecular markers imply dynamic sources and cycling in a manner that is incongruent with bulk DOC. We estimate a flux from the Amazon River of 1.9-2.7 Tg DBC yr-1 that is composed of predominately young DBC, suggesting that loss processes of modern DBC are important.- Published
- 2019
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24. Influence of internal variability on population exposure to hydroclimatic changes.
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Mankin JS, Viviroli D, Mekonnen MM, Hoekstra AY, Horton RM, Smerdon JE, and Diffenbaugh NS
- Abstract
Future freshwater supply, human water demand, and people's exposure to water stress are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including unknown future pathways of fossil fuel and water consumption, and 'irreducible' uncertainty arising from internal climate system variability. Such internal variability can conceal forced hydroclimatic changes on multi-decadal timescales and near-continental spatial-scales. Using three projections of population growth, a large ensemble from a single Earth system model, and assuming stationary per capita water consumption, we quantify the likelihoods of future population exposure to increased hydroclimatic deficits, which we define as the average duration and magnitude by which evapotranspiration exceeds precipitation in a basin. We calculate that by 2060, ~31%-35% of the global population will be exposed to >50% probability of hydroclimatic deficit increases that exceed existing hydrological storage, with up to 9% of people exposed to >90% probability. However, internal variability, which is an irreducible uncertainty in climate model predictions that is under-sampled in water resource projections, creates substantial uncertainty in predicted exposure: ~86%-91% of people will reside where irreducible uncertainty spans the potential for both increases and decreases in sub-annual water deficits. In one population scenario, changes in exposure to large hydroclimate deficits vary from -3% to +6% of global population, a range arising entirely from internal variability. The uncertainty in risk arising from irreducible uncertainty in the precise pattern of hydroclimatic change, which is typically conflated with other uncertainties in projections, is critical for climate risk management that seeks to optimize adaptations that are robust to the full set of potential real-world outcomes., Competing Interests: Competing financial interests The authors declare no competing financial interests.
- Published
- 2017
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25. Mountains of the world: vulnerable water towers for the 21st century.
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Messerli B, Viviroli D, and Weingartner R
- Subjects
- Climate, Ecosystem, Humans, Ice Cover, Kinetics, Snow, Temperature, Altitude, Conservation of Natural Resources methods, Water Supply
- Abstract
Mountains as "Water Towers" play an important role for the surrounding lowlands. This is particularly true of the world's semiarid and arid zones, where the contributions of mountains to total discharge are 50-90%. Taking into account the increasing water scarcity in these regions, especially for irrigation and food production, then today's state of knowledge in mountain hydrology makes sustainable water management and an assessment of vulnerability quite difficult. Following the IPCC report, the zone of maximum temperature increase in a 2 x CO2 state extends from low elevation in the arctic and sub-arctic to high elevation in the tropics and subtropics. The planned GCOS climate stations do not reach this elevation of high temperature change, although there are many high mountain peaks with the necessary sensitive and vulnerable ecosystems. Worldwide, more than 700 million people live in mountain areas, of these, 625 million are in developing countries. Probably more than half of these 625 million people are vulnerable to food insecurity. Consequences of this insecurity can be emigration or overuse of mountain ecosystems. Overuse of the ecosystems will, ultimately, have negative effects on the environment and especially on water resources. New research initiatives and new high mountain observatories are needed in order to understand the ongoing natural and human processes and their impacts on the adjacent lowlands.
- Published
- 2004
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