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Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give such attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with, and is conducted by, a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer reviewed, competitive research grants. This 2023 survey is the 49th consecutive national survey of 12th grade students and the 33rd national survey of 8th and 10th grade students (who were added to the study in 1991). MTF contains ongoing national surveys of both adolescents and adults in the United States. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of use of illegal drugs, alcohol, tobacco, and psychotherapeutic drugs used without a doctor's orders. Two of the major topics included in the present monograph are: (1) the prevalence and frequency of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among U.S. secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades; and (2) historical trends in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability of each drug, peer norms about their use, and use by friends. Data on grade of first use, noncontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades (based on retrospective reports), and intensity of use are also reported. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2022: Secondary School Students," see ED627366.]

The Monitoring the Future (MTF) study monitors historical and developmental changes in substance use prevalence among key subgroups of the general U.S. adolescent and adult population. The current study first devised and evaluated a cohort-specific pooled analysis weighing procedure for the MTF panel study that weighted back to the initial 12th grade samples. Following this, the cohort-specific weights were updated to age-specific weights in order to provide increased flexibility for a wide range of model specifications and to avoid the need to re-calculate a first half-sample respondent's final weight at a particular wave after the full cohort had completed that wave. The cohort-specific pooled analysis weights appear to result in an overall improvement in the degree to which the sociodemographic distributions of the initial 12th grade samples are retained, as well as likely producing slightly improved substance use estimates due to accounting for historical variation in panel sample selection and attrition over time. The updated age-specific pooled analysis weights continued to provide the benefits associated with the cohort-specific weights, but also brought increased flexibility for modeling both cohort- and age-specific research questions, and allowed all respondents' weights at each specific age to remain fixed across time.

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give such attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with, and is conducted by, a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer reviewed, competitive research grants. The 2022 survey, reported here, is the 48th consecutive national survey of 12th grade students and the 32nd national survey of 8th and 10th grade students (who were added to the study in 1991). MTF contains ongoing national surveys of both adolescents and adults in the United States. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of use of illegal drugs, alcohol, tobacco, and psychotherapeutic drugs (used without a doctor's orders). For more than four decades, MTF has helped provide a clearer view of the changing topography of these problems among adolescents and adults, a better understanding of the dynamics of factors that drive some of these problems, and a better understanding of some of their consequences. It has also given policymakers, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the field some practical approaches for intervening. Two of the major topics included in the present monograph are: (1) the prevalence and frequency of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among U.S. secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades; and (2) historical trends in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability of each drug, peer norms about their use, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, noncontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades (based on retrospective reports), and intensity of use are also reported here. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2021. Volume I, Secondary School Students," see ED619855.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is an ongoing research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse beginning in 1975. The integrated MTF study includes annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th grade students, as well as a subset of 12th grade students followed into adulthood from each graduating class. Repeating these annual cross-sectional surveys over time provides data to examine behavior change across history in consistent age segments of the adult population, as well as among key subgroups. The panel study now has over 110,000 individuals, with approximately 28,500 surveyed each year including young adults ages 19 to 30 and midlife adults ages 35 to 60. These data, gathered on national samples over such a large portion of the lifespan, are extremely rare and can provide needed insight into the epidemiology, etiology, and life course history of substance use and relevant behaviors, attitudes, and other factors. The current report is the latest in a series of publications dating back to 1986 and updated annually since then, all available at monitoringthefuture.org. [For the previous report, "Monitoring the Future Panel Study Annual Report: National Data on Substance Use among Adults Ages 19 to 60, 1976-2021," see ED623992.]

The purpose of this occasional paper is to compare point estimates and trends included in the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Panel Study annual report: "National Data on Substance Use among Adults Ages 19 to 60, 1976-2021" prepared using historical post-stratification weights, with the same point estimates and trends obtained when using MTF age-specific panel analysis weights. The current report is organized into four sections: (1) Part 1: Overview of Old and New Weighting Methods; (2) Comparison Approach and Summary; (3) Differences Observed Between Old and New Weighting Approaches, by Substance; and (4) Updated Panel Report Figures and Tables. Evaluating the impact of the new MTF panel analysis weights on point estimates and trends reported in the MTF panel annual report for 1976-2021 indicates that, overall, 63.1% of all point estimate comparisons exhibited less than a |5%| mean change between weighting approaches. Further, no trend comparisons indicated a sign flip, and 87.1% were substantively unchanged in regards to trend significance. [For "National Data on Substance Use among Adults Ages 19 to 60, 1976-2021," see ED623992.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) has become one of the nation's most relied upon scientific sources of valid information on trends in use of licit and illicit psychoactive drugs by U.S. adolescents, college students, young adults, and adults up to age 60. During the last four decades, the study has tracked and reported on the use of an ever-growing array of such substances in these populations of adolescents and adults. The annual MTF series of monographs is one of the primary mechanisms through which the new epidemiological findings are reported. Findings from the inception of the study in 1975 through 2022 are included--the results of 48 national in-school surveys and 46 national follow up surveys. MTF has conducted in-school surveys of nationally representative samples of: (1) 12th grade students each year since 1975; and (2) 8th and 10th grade students each year since 1991. In addition, beginning with the class of 1976, the study has conducted follow up surveys of representative subsamples of the respondents from each previously participating 12th grade class. These follow up surveys now continue well into adulthood, currently up to age 60. MTF is designed to detect age, period, and cohort effects in substance use and related attitudes. Age effects are similar changes at similar ages seen across multiple class cohorts; they are common during adolescence. Period effects are changes that are parallel over a number of years across multiple age groups (in this case, all three grades under study--8, 10, and 12). Cohort effects are substance use behaviors or attitudes that distinguish a class cohort from others that came before or after them and are maintained as the cohort ages. The survey results divide cleanly into the time periods before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. All surveys in 2020 were completed before March 15, when data collection was halted due to pandemic concerns. Consequently, results from 2020 and previous years are pre-pandemic, while results from 2021 and 2022 took place after the onset of the pandemic and the associated national response. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2021: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use," see ED618240.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with, and is conducted by, a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer reviewed, competitive research grants. The 2021 survey, reported here, is the 47th consecutive survey of 12th grade students and the 31st such survey of 8th and 10th graders (who were added to the study in 1991). MTF contains ongoing national surveys of both adolescents and adults in the United States. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of use of illegal drugs, alcohol, tobacco, and psychotherapeutic drugs (used without a doctor's orders). For more than four decades, MTF has helped provide a clearer view of the changing topography of these problems among adolescents and adults, a better understanding of the dynamics of factors that drive some of these problems, and a better understanding of some of their consequences. It has also given policymakers, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the field some practical approaches for intervening. Two of the major topics included in the present volume are: (1) the "prevalence and frequency" of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among U.S. secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades; and (2) "historical trends" in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability, peer norms, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, discontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades, and intensity of use are also reported here. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2020. Volume I, Secondary School Students," see ED615087.]

This volume presents new 2021 findings from the U.S. national Monitoring the Future follow-up (panel) study concerning substance use among the nation's college students and adults from ages 19 through 60. We report 2021 prevalence estimates on numerous illicit and licit substances, examine how substance use differs across this age span, and show how substance use and related behaviors and attitudes have changed over the past four decades. The panel study now has over 108,000 individuals, with approximately 28,500 surveyed each year including young adults ages 19 to 30 and adults ages 35 to 60. These data, gathered on national samples over such a large portion the lifespan, are extremely rare and can provide needed insight into the epidemiology, etiology, and life course history of substance use and relevant behaviors, attitudes, and other factors. The current report is the latest in a series of publications dating back to 1986. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2021: Volume 1, Secondary School Students," see ED619855. For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2020. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60," see ED615085.]

This occasional paper presents national demographic subgroup data for the 1975-2021 Monitoring the Future (MTF) national survey results on 8th, 10th, and 12th graders' use of drugs, alcohol, and tobacco. The study covers all major classes of illicit and licit psychoactive drugs for an array of population subgroups. The 2020 subgroup data presented here accompany the "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use: 1975-2021: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use" (see ED618240) and the "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2021, forthcoming: Volume I, Secondary School Students." The trends offered here in tabular and graphic forms cover demographic subgroups based on: (1) Gender; (2) College plans; (3) Region of the country; (4) Population density; (5) Education level of the parents (a proxy for socioeconomic level); and (6) Racial/ethnic identification. Detailed descriptions of the demographic categories are provided in the section starting on page 469 of this paper. The graphs and tables in this occasional paper present trend data for 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade respondents separately. Data for 12th grade begins with 1975, the first year in which a nationally representative sample of high school seniors was surveyed. Data for 8th and 10th grades begin with 1991, when the study's nationally representative annual surveys were expanded to include surveys of those lower grade levels.

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long term study of substance use and related factors among U.S. adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. It is conducted annually and supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF findings identify emerging substance use problems, track substance use trends, are published with many scientific results, and help to inform policy and intervention strategies. The key findings regarding use of various substances by 8th, 10th, and 12th graders surveyed across the U.S. in 2021 are summarized below. But first a few words about the context. The preceding year, 2020, was an unusual year for the study in that data collection was halted earlier than usual, in March of that year, due to the emerging COVID-19 epidemic and the University of Michigan halting in-person research. This resulted in smaller samples being obtained that year, but based on careful analyses we believe that the smaller samples reflect drug use for all students that year with reasonable accuracy. The previous year, 2019, was unusual in a different way--it was the year that the study was transitioning from using paper and pencil questionnaires in schools to having students use electronic tablets. A random half of all respondents in 2019 used the older mode of administration, while the other half used tablets. How the authors e dealt with these two disruptions to the ongoing series is described in the section on Study Design and Methods. It should be noted that the 2020 data collection occurred early in 2020, covering the early months of the epidemic, but it did not cover most of the period of the epidemic that year, nor of its effects. However, the 2021 data collection occurred more than a year into the COVID epidemic and brought quite dramatic changes in adolescent drug use in the United States. A synopsis of the design and methods used in the study follows the introductory section. A separate section is then provided for each individual drug class, including figures that show trends in the overall proportions of students at each grade level (1) using the drug; (2) seeing a "great risk" associated with its use (perceived risk); (3) disapproving of its use (disapproval); and (4) saying that it would be "fairly easy" or "very easy" to get if they wanted to (perceived availability). For 12th graders, annual data are available since 1975--and for 8th and 10th graders since 1991, the first year they were included in the study. The tables at the end of this report provide the statistics underlying the figures; in addition, they present trend data on lifetime, annual, 30 day, and (for selected drugs) daily prevalence. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2020: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use," see ED611736.]

The present volume presents new 2020 findings from the U.S. national Monitoring the Future (MTF) follow-up study concerning substance use among the nation's college students and adults from ages 19 through 60. This volume reports 2020 prevalence estimates on numerous illicit and licit substances, examines how substance use differs across this age span, and shows how substance use and related behaviors and attitudes have changed over the past four decades. The 2020 panel data collections occurred during the start of the COVID-19 pandemic (from March 2020 through November 2020), and this volume constitutes one of the first considerations of possible pandemic effects on prevalence and trends of substance use among the MTF young and middle-aged adults. This volume reports the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of all high school graduating classes since 1976 as they are followed into their adult years. Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) U.S. college students; (2) same-aged youth who also are graduates from high school but not attending college full time, sometimes in the past called the "forgotten half,"; (3) all young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30, called the "young adult" sample; and (4) high school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. This volume emphasizes historical and developmental changes in substance use and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2020. Volume I, Secondary School Students," see ED615087. For the report from the previous year, see ED608266.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse -- one of the National Institutes of Health -- under a series of peer-reviewed, competitive research grants. The 2020 survey, reported here, is the 46th consecutive survey of 12th grade students and the 30th such survey of 8th and 10th graders. MTF contains ongoing national surveys of both adolescents and adults in the United States. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of use of illegal drugs, alcohol, tobacco, and psychotherapeutic drugs (not under a doctor's orders). For more than four decades, MTF has helped provide a clearer view of the changing topography of these problems among adolescents and adults, a better understanding of the dynamics of factors that drive some of these problems, and a better understanding of some of their consequences. It has also given policymakers, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the field some practical approaches for intervening. Two of the major topics included in the present volume are: (1) the "prevalence and frequency" of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among U.S. secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades; and (2) "historical trends" in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment -- in particular, perceived availability, peer norms, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, discontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades, and intensity of use are also reported here. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2020. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60," see ED615085. For the report from the previous year, see ED608265.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of substance use and related factors among U.S. adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. It is conducted annually and supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF findings identify emerging substance use problems, track substance use trends, publish many scientific findings, and help to inform policy and intervention strategies. The key findings regarding use of various substances by 8th, 10th, and 12th graders surveyed across the coterminous U.S. in 2020 are summarized. The year 2020 was an unusual year for the study in that data collection was halted earlier than usual, in March of that year, as a result of the emerging COVID-19 epidemic. This resulted in smaller samples being obtained that year. How the authors dealt with this disruption (as well as the disruption that occurred in the 2019 study, the transition from students using paper and pencil questionnaires to using electronic tablets) to the ongoing series is described. It should be noted that the 2020 data collection occurred early in 2020, so it does not cover most of the period of the pandemic, nor of its effects. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2019: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use," see ED604018.]

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2018. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60" (see ED599071). The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were first surveyed in 12th grade as part of the MTF study. Data were first available for the 19-22 age group in 1980 and for the older age groups in subsequent years as the early cohorts progressed in age, as the tables and figures in this occasional paper indicate. The subgroup trends shown in the current occasional paper complement the last section of Chapter 5 (Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood) of that monograph by presenting the trend data for young adult subgroups in both graphic and tabular form. The results are described and discussed in Chapter 5, but the extensive set of tables and figures is provided here for the reader who wishes to view the figures and the underlying numerical values in tabular form. Three demographic dimensions are differentiated: gender, region of the country, and population density. Gender includes trends for males and females; region describes trends for each of the four major regions defined by the U.S. Census; and population density differentiates trends for five levels of community size. The Table of Contents and List of Figures in this occasional paper contain links to the content and figures. Following each figure is a table giving the numerical values associated with each trend line in that figure. [For the 1988-2019 Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper, see ED608244.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. The study is funded under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a range of behaviors--including certain forms of substance use--related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is responsible for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The population under study here includes high school graduates in the general population, ages 21-30. High school graduates who fall into this age range each year have been surveyed annually since 2004. HIV infection is clearly a serious public health concern. Worldwide, about 36.9 million people were living with AIDS at the end of 2017 (UNAIDS, 2018). In the United States, about 1.1 million people were living with diagnosed HIV infection as of 2019 (CDC, 2021), and 1 in 7 were unaware of their infection (CDC, 2021). The present monograph addresses some of the factors that may have been preventing greater progress against HIV/AIDS. The ages covered in this study contain the two age bands with the highest rates of newly diagnosed HIV infection in the United States: namely, ages 20-24 and 25-29. This monograph tracks key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States. In 2019, over 36,000 individuals became newly infected with HIV in the United States (CDC, 2021). MTF surveys assess both sexual risk behaviors and injection drug use (including needle sharing), which are two main sources of HIV infection. The present volume is the fourth monograph published this year in the annual series of reports. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results: HIV/AIDS Risk & Protective Behaviors among Adults Ages 21 to 30 in the U.S., 2004-2019," see ED611887.]

The present volume presents new 2019 findings from the U.S. national Monitoring the Future (MTF) follow-up study concerning substance use among the nation's college students and adults from ages 19 through 60. This report includes 2019 prevalence estimates on numerous illicit and licit substances, examines how substance use differs across this age span, and shows how substance use and related behaviors and attitudes have changed over the past four decades. MTF, now in its 46th year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse -- one of the National Institutes of Health. The integrated MTF study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th grade students (begun in 1991), 12th grade students (begun in 1975), and high school graduates followed into adulthood (begun in 1976). Note that the data reported in this volume were collected before the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors report the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of all high school graduating classes since 1976 and follow them into their adult years. Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) U.S. college students; (2) same-aged youth who also are graduates from high school but not attending college full time, sometimes in the past called the "forgotten half"; (3) all young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30 (or 19-28 for trend estimates), to whom we refer as the "young adult" sample; and (4) high school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, and 60. This volume emphasizes historical and developmental changes in substance use and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2019. Volume I, Secondary School Students," see ED608265. For the report from the previous year, see ED599071.]

Substance use is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality; it is in large part why, among 17 high-income nations, people in the U.S. have the highest probability of dying by age 50. Substance use is also an important contributor to many social ills including child and spousal abuse, violence more generally, theft, suicide, and more; and it typically is initiated during adolescence. It warrants our sustained attention. Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give such attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with, and is conducted by, a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse -- one of the National Institutes of Health -- under a series of peer-reviewed, competitive research grants. The 2019 survey, reported here, is the 45th consecutive survey of 12th grade students and the 29th such survey of 8th and 10th graders. Two of the major topics included in the present volume are: (1) the prevalence and frequency of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among U.S. secondary school students in 8th , 10th, and 12th grades; and (2) historical trends in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability, peer norms, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, discontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades, and intensity of use are also reported here. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2019. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60," see ED608266. For the report from the previous year, see ED599067.]

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2018. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60" (see ED599071). The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were first surveyed in 12th grade as part of the MTF study. The subgroup trends shown in this occasional paper complement the last section of Chapter 5 (Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood) of that monograph by presenting the trend data for young adult subgroups in both graphic and tabular form. The results are described and discussed in Chapter 5, but the extensive set of tables and figures is provided in this occasional paper for the reader who wishes to view the figures and the underlying numerical values. Three demographic dimensions are differentiated: gender, region of the country, and population density. Gender includes trends for males and females; region describes trends for each of the four major regions defined by the U.S. Census; and population density differentiates trends for five levels of community size. The Table of Contents and List of Figures in this occasional paper contain links to the content and figures. Following each figure is a table giving the numerical values associated with each trend line in that figure.

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of substance use and related factors among U.S. adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. It is conducted annually and supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF findings identify emerging substance use problems, track substance use trends, and inform national policy and intervention strategies. The key findings regarding use of various substances by 8th, 10th, and 12th graders surveyed across the coterminous U.S. in 2019 are summarized. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2018: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use," see ED594190.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. The study is funded under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance use, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is responsible for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The ages covered in this study contain the two age bands with the highest rates of newly diagnosed HIV infection in the United States: namely, ages 20-24 and 25-29. High school graduates who fall into this age range each year have been surveyed annually since 2004. The present volume is the fourth monograph in the MTF series of annual reports. [For the first three monographs, see ED604018 (Overview of Key Findings), ED608265 (Volume 1), and ED608266 (Volume 2). For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results: HIV/AIDS Risk & Protective Behaviors among Adults Ages 21 to 30 in the U.S., 2004-2018," see ED611901.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. The study is supported under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance use, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is responsible for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The ages covered in this study contain the two age bands with the highest rates of newly diagnosed HIV infection in the United States: namely, ages 20-24 and 25-29. High school graduates who fall into this age range each year have been surveyed annually since 2004. This monograph tracks key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States. In 2016, about 40,000 individuals became newly infected with HIV in the United States (CDC, 2017). MTF surveys assess both sexual risk behaviors and injection drug use (including needle sharing), which are two main sources of HIV infection. The present volume is the fourth monograph in the MTF series of annual reports. [For the first three 2019 monographs, see ED594190 (Overview of Key Findings), ED599067 (Volume 1), and ED599071 (Volume 2). For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results: HIV/AIDS Risk & Protective Behaviors among Adults Ages 21 to 40 in the U.S., 2004-2017," see ED611904.]

This volume presents new 2018 findings from the U.S. national Monitoring the Future (MTF) follow-up study concerning substance use among the nation's college students and adults from ages 19 through 60. The authors report 2018 prevalence estimates on numerous illicit and licit substances, examine how substance use differs across this age span, and show how substance use and related behaviors and attitudes have changed over the past four decades. MTF, now in its 45th year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The integrated MTF study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th and 10th grade students (begun in 1991), 12th grade students (begun in 1975), and high school graduates followed into adulthood (begun in 1976). The authors report the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of all high school graduating classes since 1976 as they follow them into their adult years. Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) U.S. college students; (2) their age-peers who are not attending college, sometimes called the "forgotten half"; (3) all young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30 (or 19-28 for trend estimates), to whom the authors refer to as the "young adult" sample; and (4) high school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55. This volume emphasizes historical and developmental changes in substance use and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata.

Substance use is a leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality; it is in large part why, among 17 high-income nations, people in the U.S. have the highest probability of dying by age 50. Substance use is also an important contributor to many social ills including child and spousal abuse, violence more generally, theft, suicide, and more; and it typically is initiated during adolescence. It warrants our sustained attention. Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give such attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with, and is conducted by, a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been funded continuously by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer-reviewed, competitive research grants. The MTF annual monograph series has been a primary vehicle for disseminating MTF's epidemiological findings. The current monograph presents the results of the 44th survey of drug use and related attitudes and beliefs among U.S. high school seniors and 28th such survey of 8th and 10th grade students.

This report summarizes the results of a cluster-randomized field trial that estimated the effect of "BURST[R]: Reading" on primary grades students' early literacy achievement. BURST is a widely adopted supplemental reading program designed for use with students struggling to acquire early literacy skills and is meant to provide supplemental instruction to these students outside the regular reading program. The program uses an "assess, group, instruct" format in which schools identify struggling readers using the "DIBELS Next" assessment, then use a proprietary algorithm to place identified students into reasonably homogenous skill groups on the basis of DIBELS results, and then provide targeted instruction to these groups using BURST curriculum and lesson materials. Over the four-year period AY 2013-2014 to AY 2016-2017, the University of Michigan (in cooperation with Amplify, Inc.) carried out a study in 52 high-poverty schools serving grades K-3 located in 9 states in different geographic areas of the United States during the period AY 2013-2014 to AY 2016-2017. The study randomly assigned 27 schools to the BURST treatment group and 25 to a control group that was provided free access to the "DIBELS Next" assessment for use in a regular universal screening process. More than 29,000 students enrolled in grades K-3 at treatment and control schools participated in the study contributing about 1.8 observations per student. Data analysis showed no evidence of differential attrition in the study groups, there was strong evidence of baseline equivalence of the treatment and control samples in the study, and cross-over from one experimental condition to the other was minimal and similar across treatment and control groups. The study found that schools assigned to the BURST treatment group offered BURST instruction to both struggling and non-struggling readers and that the average struggling reader received about 40 hours of BURST instruction in a given a year such that (over a four year period) the average struggling reader in a BURST school could be expected to accumulate between 120 and 140 hours of BURST instruction. Overall rates of provision of BURST instruction in study schools was found to be similar to rates of provision of BURST instruction in schools with similar demographic characteristics that had purchased and were using the BURST program outside the efficacy trial in AY2016-2017 but less than the amount of instruction recommended by the program developer. Using the Star Early Literacy assessment as the primary outcome, and after adjusting this outcome for several pre-treatment covariates using a Peters-Belson type strategy, the study estimated sample average treatment effects on students' early literacy learning using permutation tests that took into account the various forms of clustering in the experimental design and that controlled statistical significance tests for family wise error rates due to multiple comparisons. The results of these statistical tests showed that the BURST program did not have statistically significant effects on the early reading achievement of all students who attended BURST schools, did not have statistically significant positive effects on the early reading achievement of struggling readers who attended BURST schools, did not have statistically significant positive effects on the early reading achievement of students who attended BURST schools for three or more years consecutively, and did not have statistically significant positive effects on the early reading achievement of students who attended BURST schools that had a predicted probability greater than 1% of complying (versus not complying) with treatment assignment. There was only slight evidence of school-to-school variability in program effects, with schools implementing BURST instruction at higher rates tending to have slightly larger positive effects on students' early reading achievement than schools implementing BURST instruction at lower rates. These differences were very small, however, and as such, were not assessed for statistical significance. In all, the study's results are best summarized as follows: In a sample of 52 schools located in school districts that are smaller than the average U.S. school district, in communities that are more disadvantaged than average, and serving higher percentages of lower achieving students than average, the added benefit of using BURST for supplemental reading instruction under routine conditions of implementation was found to be negligible compared to engaging in universal screening with DIBELS and conducting supplemental reading instruction under business as usual conditions.

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30, "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2018. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-60" (see ED599071). The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were first surveyed in 12th grade as part of the MTF study. Therefore, the universe being described omits people who did not complete high school--between 8 and 15% of each age group, with the most recent class cohorts closer to the bottom of that range. Surveys of the graduating cohorts of high school seniors started in 1976 and have continued with each graduating class since. Data were first available for the 19-22 age group in 1980 and for the older age groups in subsequent years, as the tables and figures in this occasional paper indicate. The general epidemiological findings from these samples are discussed in "Volume II" of the annual monograph series. The subgroup trends shown in this occasional paper complement the last section of Chapter 5 (Trends in Drug Use in Early and Middle Adulthood) of that monograph by presenting the trend data for young adult subgroups in both graphic and tabular form. The results are described and discussed in Chapter 5, but the extensive set of tables and figures is provided in this paper for the reader who wishes to view the figures and the underlying numerical values. Three demographic dimensions are differentiated: gender, region of the country, and population density. Gender includes trends for males and females; region describes trends for each of the four major regions defined by the U.S. Census; and population density differentiates trends for five levels of community size. The Table of Contents and List of Figures in this occasional paper contain links to the content and figures. Following each figure is a table giving the numerical values associated with each trend line in that figure.

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of substance use and related factors among U.S. adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. It is conducted annually and supported by the National Institute on Drug Abuse. MTF findings identify emerging substance use problems, track substance use trends, and inform national policy and intervention strategies. MTF is designed to detect age, period, and cohort effects in substance use and related attitudes. Age effects are similar changes with age seen across multiple class cohorts; they are common during adolescence. Period effects are changes that are parallel over a number of years across multiple age groups (in this case, all three grades under study--8, 10, and 12). Cohort effects are consistent differences among birth cohorts (or in this case, class cohorts) that are then maintained as the cohorts age. The key findings regarding use of various substances by 8th, 10th, and 12th graders surveyed across the coterminous U.S. in 2018 are presented in this report. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2017: Overview, Key Findings on Adolescent Drug Use," see ED589762.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 60. The study is supported under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a broad range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance use, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which is responsible for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The populations under study here includes high school graduates in the general population ages 21-30, surveyed annually since 2004; age 35, surveyed annually since 2008; and age 40, surveyed annually since 2010. The present monograph addresses some of the factors that may be preventing further progress against HIV/AIDS, including key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States, some of which also relate to the spread of other sexually transmitted diseases (STD). In 2016, about 40,000 individuals became newly infected with HIV in the United States (CDC, 2018a). MTF surveys assess both sexual risk behaviors and injection drug use (including needle sharing), which are two main sources of HIV infection. The present volume is the fourth monograph in the MTF series of annual reports. [For the first three 2018 monographs, see ED589762 (Overview of Key Findings), ED589763 (Volume 1), and ED589764 (Volume 2). For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results: HIV/AIDS Risk & Protective Behaviors among Adults Ages 21 to 40 in the U.S., 2004-2016," see ED578601.]

This occasional paper presents subgroup findings from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study on levels of, and trends in, the use of a number of substances for nationally representative samples of high school graduates ages 19-30. The data have been gathered in a series of follow-up surveys of representative subsamples of high school seniors who were first surveyed in 12th grade as part of the MTF study. Therefore, the universe being described omits people who did not complete high school--between 8 and 15% of each age group, with the most recent class cohorts closer to the bottom of that range. Surveys of the graduating cohorts of high school seniors started in 1976 and have continued with each graduating class since. Data were first available for the 19-22 age group in 1980 and for the older age groups in subsequent years, as the tables and figures in this occasional paper indicate. Three demographic dimensions are differentiated: gender, region of the country, and population density. Gender includes trends for males and females; region describes trends for each of the four major regions defined by the U.S. Census; and population density differentiates trends for five levels of community size.

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 55. The study is supported under a series of investigatorinitiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a broad range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance abuse, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) responsible for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The population under study includes high school graduates in the general population ages 21-30, surveyed annually since 2004; age 35, surveyed annually since 2008; and age 40, surveyed annually since 2010. In recent years, about 45,000 to 50,000 individuals become newly infected in the United States (CDC, 2015a, 2015b). MTF surveys assess both sexual risk behaviors and injection drug use, which are two main sources of HIV infection. In addition to the particular risk of HIV, young adults are at high risk of contracting other sexually transmitted diseases and infections (STDs/STIs). Over half of the 20 million STDs occurring annually in the United States affect individuals aged 15 to 24 (CDC, 2015b; Weinstock et al., 2004). In this monograph, we track some of the key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States, some of which also affect the spread of other STDs. The present volume is the fourth monograph in the annual MTF series of reports, all available online from the MTF website. The first monograph, Overview of Key Findings, is published near the beginning of each year and provides early findings on the levels and trends in use of various substances by the nation's 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students surveyed in the previous year (Johnston et al., 2017). "Volume I," available at the beginning of June, provides more detailed and complete findings on the same population (Miech et al., 2017). "Volume II," available at the beginning of August, provides similar prevalence and trend information on the substance-using behaviors of adult high school graduates through age 55, based on a series of follow-up mailed surveys of representative samples of students from each high school graduating class (Schulenberg et al., 2017). "Volume II" has provided findings specific to college students since 1980. HIV/AIDS risk and protective behaviors were introduced into the MTF follow-up surveys in 2004 and findings based on these measures were reported in "Volume II" from 2004 through 2008, after which they were published in separate volumes including the present one. (Individual chapters provide references.)

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 42nd year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th- and 10th-grade students (begun in 1991), 12th-grade students (begun in 1975), and high school graduates followed into adulthood (begun in 1976). The current monograph reports the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of all high school graduating classes since 1976 as they are followed into their adult years (as discussed in Chapter 4, these cross sections come from longitudinal data). Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) U.S. college students; (2) their age-peers who are not attending college, sometimes called the "forgotten half"; (3) all young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30 (or 19-28 for trend estimates), who are referred to as the "young adult" sample; and (4) high school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55. In this volume, historical and developmental changes in substance use and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata receive particular emphasis. The follow-up surveys have been conducted by mail on representative subsamples of the previous participants from each high school senior class. This volume presents data from the 1977 through 2016 follow-up surveys of the graduating high school classes of 1976 through 2015, as these respondents have progressed into adulthood. The oldest MTF respondents, from the class of 1976, were the first to be surveyed through age 55 in 2013-37 years after their graduation. Other monographs in this series include the Overview of Key Findings, 2 which presents early results from the secondary school surveys; Volume I, 3 which provides an in-depth look at the secondary school survey results; and the HIV/AIDS monograph, 4 drawn from the follow-up surveys of 21- to 40-year-olds, which focuses on risk and protective behaviors related to the transmission of HIV/AIDS. To enable the present volume to stand alone, three chapters from Volume I have been repeated. Chapter 2 provide a summary of key findings from five of the populations under study (8th graders, 10th graders, 12th graders, college students, and young adults). Chapter 3 outlines the study's design and procedures. Chapter 10 (which is Chapter 11 in Volume I) provides a summary of recent publications from the MTF study. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2015. Volume I, Secondary School Students" see ED578604.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give sustained attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with and is conducted by a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been continuously funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer-reviewed, competitive research grants. MTF contains ongoing national surveys of both adolescents and adults in the United States. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of illegal drug use, alcohol abuse, tobacco use, anabolic steroid abuse, and psychotherapeutic drug abuse. MTF has helped provide a clearer view of the changing topography of these problems among adolescents and adults, a better understanding of the dynamics of factors that drive some of these problems, and a better understanding of some of their consequences. It has also given policymakers, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the field some practical approaches for intervening. This annual monograph series has been a primary vehicle for disseminating MTF's epidemiological findings. This monograph presents the results of the 42nd survey of drug use and related attitudes and beliefs among American high school seniors and 26th such survey of 8th and 10th grade students. Two of the major topics included in the present volume are (1) the "prevalence and frequency" of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among American secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades and (2) "historical trends" in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability, peer norms, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, discontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades, and intensity of use are also reported. This report focuses attention on drug use at the higher frequency levels rather than simply report proportions that have ever used various drugs. This is done to help differentiate levels of seriousness, or extent, of drug involvement. Appendices are included. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2016. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-55," see ED578605.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 55. The study is supported under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a broad range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance abuse, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) responsible for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The population under study includes high school graduates in the general population ages 21-30, surveyed annually since 2004; age 35, surveyed annually since 2008; and age 40, surveyed annually since 2010. In the United States, about 1.2 million people are living with HIV, 1 in 8 unaware of the infection, and the rate of new HIV infections has remained relatively stable in recent years (CDC, 2015a). The 1990s saw decreases in HIV infection in the U.S., and between 2002 and 2014, new HIV infections dropped by 19%. However, over the years, progress has been uneven, and some segments of the population continue to show increases in infections (CDC, 2015b). The present monograph addresses some of the factors that may be preventing further progress against HIV/AIDS. In recent years, about 45,000 to 50,000 individuals become newly infected in the United States (Hall et al., 2008; CDC, 2015a, 2015b). MTF surveys assess both sexual risk behaviors and injection drug use, which are two main sources of HIV infection. In addition to the particular risk of HIV, young adults are also at high risk of contracting other sexually transmitted diseases and infections (STDs/STIs). Over half of the 20 million STDs occurring annually in the United States affect individuals aged 15 to 24 (CDC, 2015b; Weinstock et al., 2004). This monograph tracks some of the key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States, some of which also affect the spread of other STDs. The present volume is the fourth monograph in the annual MTF series of reports, all available online from the MTF website. The first monograph, "Overview of Key Findings," is published near the beginning of each year and provides early findings on the levels and trends in use of various substances by the nation's 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students surveyed in the previous year (Johnston et al., 2016a). Volume I, available at the beginning of June, provides more detailed and complete findings on the same population (Miech et al., 2016). Volume II, available at the beginning of August, provides similar prevalence and trend information on the substance-using behaviors of adult high school graduates through age 55, based on a series of follow-up mailed surveys of representative samples of students from each high school graduating class (Johnston et al., 2016b). Volume II has provided findings specific to college students since 1980. HIV/AIDS risk and protective behaviors were introduced into the MTF follow-up surveys in 2004 and findings based on these measures were reported in Volume II from 2004 through 2008, after which they were published in separate volumes including the present one. (Individual chapters provide references.)

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 41st year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th- and 10th-grade students (begun in 1991), 12th-grade students (begun in 1975), and high school graduates followed into adulthood (begun in 1976). The current monograph reports the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of all high school graduating classes since 1976 as researchers followed them into their adult years. Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) U.S. college students; (2) their age-peers who are not attending college, sometimes called the "forgotten half"; (3) all young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30 (or 19-28 for trend estimates), referred to as the "young adult" sample; and (4) high school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55. In this volume, historical and developmental changes in substance use and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata receive particular emphasis. The follow-up surveys have been conducted by mail on representative subsamples of the previous participants from each high school senior class. This volume presents data from the 1977 through 2015 follow-up surveys of the graduating high school classes of 1976 through 2014, as these respondents have progressed into adulthood. The oldest MTF respondents, from the class of 1976, were the first to be surveyed through age 55 in 2013--37 years after their graduation. An index is included. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2015. Volume 1, Secondary School Students," see ED578604.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is designed to give sustained attention to substance use among the nation's youth and adults. It is an investigator-initiated study that originated with and is conducted by a team of research professors at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research. Since its onset in 1975, MTF has been continuously funded by the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health--under a series of peer-reviewed, competitive research grants. The 2015 survey, reported here, is the 41st consecutive survey of 12th-grade students and the 25th such survey of 8th and 10th graders. MTF contains ongoing series of national surveys of both American adolescents and adults. It provides the nation with a vital window into the important but often hidden problem behaviors of illegal drug use, alcohol abuse, tobacco use, anabolic steroid abuse, and psychotherapeutic drug abuse. For four decades MTF has helped provide a clearer view of the changing topography of these problems among adolescents and adults, a better understanding of the dynamics of factors that drive some of these problems, and a better understanding of some of their consequences. It has also given policymakers, government agencies, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in the field some practical approaches for intervening. This annual monograph series has been a primary vehicle for disseminating MTF's epidemiological findings. This latest two-volume monograph presents the results of the 41st survey of drug use and related attitudes and beliefs among American high school seniors, the 36th such survey of American college students, and the 25th such survey of 8th- and 10th-grade students. Importantly, results are also reported for high school graduates followed in a series of panel studies through age 55. Results from the samples of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders are contained in this volume, which is preceded by four national press releases2,3,4,5 and a briefer monograph6 summarizing the findings on adolescents; the latter is published online on or about January 31st each year. Results on college students and other adults are reported annually in Volume II, 7 published a few months after this volume. An annual monograph on risk and protective behaviors for the spread of HIV/AIDS8 among young adults was added beginning in 2009. (In years prior to 2009, findings from the study on risk and protective behaviors for the spread of HIV/AIDS were contained in Volume II.) All MTF publications, including press releases, are available on the project website. Two of the major topics included in the present volume are (a) the prevalence and frequency of use of a great many substances, both licit and illicit, among American secondary school students in 8th, 10th, and 12th grades and (b) historical trends in use by students in those grades. Distinctions are made among important demographic subgroups in these populations based on gender, college plans, region of the country, population density, parent education, and race/ethnicity. MTF has demonstrated that key attitudes and beliefs about drug use are important determinants of usage trends, in particular the amount of risk to the user perceived to be associated with the various drugs and disapproval of using them; thus, those measures also are tracked over time, as are students' perceptions of certain relevant aspects of the social environment--in particular, perceived availability, peer norms, use by friends, and exposure to use by others of the various drugs. Data on grade of first use, discontinuation of use, trends in use in lower grades, and intensity of use are also reported here. (For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2016. Volume II, College Students & Adults Ages 19-55" see ED578605.]

This study assesses the changing lifestyles, values, and preferences of American youth on a continuing basis. Each year since 1975, at least 13,000 seniors have participated in the annual survey, which is conducted in some 130 high schools nationwide. Since 1991, the study's annual surveys also have included surveys of similar nationally representative samples of eighth- and tenth-grade students. In addition, subsamples of high school seniors from previously participating classes receive follow-up questionnaires by mail each year. This report presents the objectives and theoretical Foundation of the Monitoring the Future Study. [For the designs and the procedures for the Monitoring the Future Study, see "The Monitoring the Future Project after Four Decades: Design and Procedures. Monitoring the Future Occasional Paper Series. Paper 82," ED578425.]

Monitoring the Future (MTF) is a long-term study of American adolescents, college students, and adult high school graduates through age 55. The study is supported under a series of investigator-initiated, competing research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and has been conducted annually by the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research since 1975. The present monograph focuses on a broad range of behaviors, including certain forms of substance abuse, related to the spread of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) responsible for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The population under study includes high school graduates in the general population ages 21-30, surveyed since 2004; age 35, surveyed since 2008; and age 40, surveyed since 2010. HIV infection is clearly a serious public health concern. Worldwide, about 35 million people were living with AIDS at the end of 2013 (WHO, 2015). In the United States, about 1.2 million people are living with HIV, 1 in 8 unaware of the infection, and new HIV infections remaining relatively stable in recent years (CDC, 2015). The 1990s saw decreases in HIV infection in the U.S. but, importantly, from 2002 to 2010 the trend in number of new HIV/AIDS cases and deaths remained largely unchanged (CDC, 2013). The present monograph addresses some of the factors that may be preventing further progress against HIV/AIDS. This monograph tracks some of the key behaviors related to the spread of HIV/AIDS in the United States, some of which also affect the spread of other STDs. This volume is the fourth monograph in the MTF series of annual reports, all available online from the MTF website. The first monograph, "Overview of Key Findings" is published near the beginning of each year and provides early findings on the levels and trends in use of various substances by the nation's 8th-, 10th-, and 12th-grade students surveyed in the previous year (Johnston et al., 2015a). Volume I, available at the beginning of June, provides more detailed and complete findings on the same population (Miech et al., 2015). Volume II, available at the beginning of August, provides similar prevalence and trend information on the substance-using behaviors of adult high school graduates through age 55, based on a series of follow up mailed surveys of representative samples of students from each high school graduating class (Johnston et al., 2015b). Volume II has provided findings specific to college students since 1980. HIV/AIDS risk and protective behaviors were introduced into the MTF follow-up surveys in 2004 and findings based on these measures were reported in Volume II from 2004 through 2008, after which they were published in separate volumes such as the present one. (Individual chapters provide references.)

Monitoring the Future (MTF), now in its 40th year, is a research program conducted at the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research under a series of investigator-initiated research grants from the National Institute on Drug Abuse--one of the National Institutes of Health. The study comprises several ongoing series of annual surveys of nationally representative samples of 8th- and 10th-grade students (begun in 1991), 12th-grade students (begun in 1975), and high school graduates into adulthood (begun in 1976). The current monograph reports the results of the repeated cross-sectional surveys of high school graduates since 1976 as we follow them into their adult years. Segments of the general adult population represented in these follow-up surveys include: (1) American college students; (2) Their age-peers who are not attending college, sometimes called the "forgotten half"' (3) All young adult high school graduates of modal ages 19 to 30 (or 19-28 for trend estimates), which are referred to as the "young adult" sample; and (4) High school graduates at the specific later modal ages of 35, 40, 45, 50, and 55. In this volume, historical and developmental changes in substance abuse and related attitudes and beliefs occurring at these age strata receive particular emphasis. The follow-up surveys have been conducted by mail on representative sub samples of the previous participants from each high school senior class. This volume presents data from the 1977 through 2014 follow-up surveys of the graduating high school classes of 1976 through 2013, as these respondents have progressed into adulthood. The oldest MTF respondents, from the class of 1977, were the first to be surveyed through age 55 in 2013. Other monographs in this series include the "Overview of Key Findings, which presents earlyresults from the secondary school surveys; Volume I, which provides an in-depth look at the secondary school survey results; and the HIV/AIDS monograph, drawn from the follow-up surveys of 21- to 40-year-olds, which focuses on risk and protective behaviors among young adults related to the transmission of HIV/AIDS. To enable the present volume to stand alone, much of Chapters 2 and 3 from Volume I have been repeated. Chapter 2 provides a summary of key findings from five of the populations under study (8th graders, 10th graders, 12th graders, college students, and young adults). Chapter 3 outlines the study design and procedures. [For "Monitoring the Future National Survey Results on Drug Use, 1975-2014. Volume 1, Secondary School Students," see ED578369.]