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Several datasets of PM 2.5 concentrations over Europe during the 1990–2015 period, were used to calculate health impacts from chronic exposure to total particle matter below 2.5 ?m (i.e. PM 2.5 ). The datasets used in the analysis include the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM), the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) multi-model reanalysis developed specifically for Europe. The exposure to ambient PM 2.5 concentrations was calculated as population weighted annual average PM 2.5 concentrations by country. The calculated exposure to PM 2.5 was later used as input in the health impact assessment (HIA) Alpha-RiskPoll (ARP) tool to retrieve the total number of premature deaths. Our results indicate a substantial reduction in the number of premature deaths from PM 2.5 exposure in Europe over the 1990–2010 period, between nearly 30 and 50%. Putting all the data-sets together, even if they do not cover the whole period, a decrease of even around 60% is observed between 1990 and 2015. For the countries included in this study, the estimated number of premature deaths from PM 2.5 in 1990 was found to be around 960 000 (median of all the available datasets), whereas in 2015 it was found to be around 445 000. However, the variability in the estimated premature deaths from the different PM 2.5 datasets was found to be large during the early 90s (around a factor of 2). For the latest years of the investigated period (2005 onwards), where a relatively flat trend in the PM 2.5 exposure was observed, the differences between the different datasets were smaller. Even though our results indicate a reduction in the number of premature deaths from chronic exposure to PM 2.5 , the numbers remain considerable in 2015, underlining the need to continue improving air quality in the future. © 2019 The Authors

This report follows up on earlier ETC work on observed air pollution trends in Europe. It builds upon the Eurodelta-Trends modelling exercise (EMEP/TFMM) to attribute air quality evolution in Europe to anthropogenic emission trends, meteorological variability, and intercontinental air pollution.Modelled ozone and particulate matter (PM) trends are compared to observations. Average maps of the evolution between 1990 and 2010 are presented. The attribution analysis demonstrates that emission reductions are the primary driver of both ozone and PM changes. Boundary conditions are mainly important for ozone trends. Depending on the region and pollutant, it can sometimes have a smaller impact than interannual meteorological variability.

Reliable estimates of atmospheric deposition of nitrogen and sulphur are essential for assessing the risks of eutrophication and acidification to sensitive ecosystems. Atmospheric chemistry and transport models are frequently used to provide these estimates. Several models could be used to estimate deposition rates and, therefore, it is desirable that the models’ abilities to estimate atmospheric deposition are evaluated and compared. Since these models are used to study future scenarios (e.g. emission abatement), it is also desirable that the model estimates respond realistically to changing conditions (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology, etc.), something that can only be tested by evaluating the models’ abilities to estimate past changes in deposition. As part of the EURODELTA/TFMM trend modelling exercise, wet deposition of sulphur and nitrogen in Europe was simulated by seven models for the period 1990-2010. The model estimates of annual deposition rates and their temporal trends were compared and evaluated for two ten year periods (1990-2000 and 2000-2010) using data from EMEP background measurement stations. Model estimates of wet deposition differ greatly for all species and all models tended to underestimate the observed values, apart from one model that tended to overestimate sulphur deposition. Most of the observed and modelled trends of reduced nitrogen are not significant, reflecting the smaller emission changes for ammonia compared with those of nitrogen oxides and sulphur dioxide. Observed and modelled trends of wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen were more significant, with decreasing trends at most of the measurement stations. The most significant observed and modelled trends were found for sulphur wet deposition, the majority of which were decreasing trends, reflecting the reported European sulphur dioxide emission reductions of approximately 70% for the modelling period. Most of the models underestimated the trends in wet deposition of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen over the two ten year periods, although model performance differed greatly. Model performance was better and less variable for the relative trends (trends with respect to the values at the beginning of the period) than for the absolute trends. This suggests that relative trends could be used to produce more reliable deposition estimates for future scenarios.

Four regional chemistry transport models were applied to simulate the concentration and composition of particulate matter (PM) in Europe for 2005 with horizontal resolution 20 km. The modelled concentrations were compared with the measurements of PM chemical composition by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) monitoring network. All models systematically underestimated PM10 and PM2.5 by 10-60 %, depending on the model and the season of the year, when the calculated dry PM mass was compared with the measurements. The average water content at laboratory conditions was estimated between 5 and 20% for PM2.5 and between 10 and 25% for PM10. For majority of the PM chemical components, the relative underestimation was smaller than it was for total PM, exceptions being the carbonaceous particles and mineral dust. Some species, such as sea salt and NO-3 , were overpredicted by the models. There were notable differences between the models' predictions of the seasonal variations of PM, mainly attributable to different treatments or omission of some source categories and aerosol processes. Benzo(a)pyrene concentrations were overestimated by all the models over the whole year. The study stresses the importance of improving the models' skill in simulating mineral dust and carbonaceous compounds, necessity for high-quality emissions from wildland fires, as well as the need for an explicit consideration of aerosol water content in model-measurement comparison. © Author(s) 2016.

The EURODELTA-Trends exercise is a multi-model experiment in which seven regional models performed an air quality hindcast over Europe for the 1990-2010 period at regional-scale resolution (25km). This twenty-year lookback was designed to complement an investigation of observed European air quality trends over the same time period, undertaken by the European Monitoring and Evaluation Program Task Force on Measurements and Modeling (EMEP-TFMM). Observations at rural ground-based monitoring stations indicate that peak episodic ozone, represented by, e.g., 98th percentile of maximum daily 8-hour average ozone (MDA8), have decreased in Europe over the 1990-2010 period. Annual average ozone, on the other hand, was increasing during the 1990-2000 period, but showed a decreasing trend over the 2000-2010 period. Here, the first results of the Eurodelta-Trends exercise for ozone will be presented, with a focus on (1) the capability of the participating models to reproduce the observed trends in European ozone between 1990 and 2010 and (2) the assessment of trends causes, such as changes in precursor emissions and/or meteorology. Seven regional models, including six regional Chemistry-Transport Models (EMEP-MSCW, Chimere, CMAQ, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI, and Polyphemus) and the online coupled model WRF-Chem, participated in the EURODELTA-Trends exercise, which builds upon previous iterations of the CITYDELTA and EURODELTA projects (Thunis et al., 2007; Bessagnet et al., 2014; Cuvelier et al., 2007). Model simulations for EURODELTATrends included a number of time-slice sensitivity experiments for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010, designed to isolate the contribution of European emission changes, boundary conditions (i.e. extra-European influence), and meteorology on surface ozone concentrations. Four of the participating models performed a full 21-year hindcast for 1990-2010. A second 21-year simulation was performed using 2010 emissions for the whole time period, in order to investigate the role of meteorological variability in the modeled trends. Based on these model results, our understanding of tropospheric ozone drivers in Europe will be discussed.

International audience; Inter-comparisons of European air quality models show that regional transport models, including the EMEP (Co-operative Programme for monitoring and evaluation of the long-range transmission of air pollutants in Europe) aerosol model, tend to underestimate the observed concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5. Obviously, an accurate representation of the individual aerosol constituents is a prerequisite for adequate calculation of PM concentrations. On the other hand, available measurements on the chemical characterization of ambient particles reveal that full chemical PM mass closure is rarely achieved. The fraction unaccounted for by chemical analysis can comprise as much as 30?40% of gravimetric PM10 or PM2.5 mass. The unaccounted PM mass can partly be due to non-C atoms in organic aerosols and/or due to sampling and measurement artefacts. Moreover, a part of the unaccounted PM mass is likely to consist of water associated with particles. Thus, the gravimetrically measured particle mass does not necessarily represent dry PM10 and PM2.5 mass. This is thought to be one of the reasons for models under-prediction of observed PM, if calculated dry PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations are compared with measurements. The EMEP aerosol model has been used to study to what extent particle-bound water can explain the chemically unidentified PM mass in filter-based particle samples. Water content of PM2.5 and PM10 has been estimated with the model for temperature 20°C and relative humidity 50%, which are conditions required for equilibration of dust-loaded filters according to the Reference method recommended by the European Committee for Standardization (CEN). Model calculations for Europe show that, depending on particle composition, particle-bound water constitutes 20?35% of the annual mean PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations, which is consistent with existing experimental estimates. At two Austrian sites, in Vienna and Streithofen, where daily measurements of PM2.5 mass and chemical composition are available, calculated PM2.5 water content is found to be about 75?80% of the undetermined PM2.5 mass and there is correlation between them. Furthermore, accounting for aerosol water has improved the agreement between modelled and measured daily PM2.5 concentrations, whilst model calculated dry PM2.5 concentrations appear to agree quite well with the total identified PM2.5 mass. No information on the composition of PM measured at EMEP sites is presently available. Given that PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations are measured at EMEP stations with gravimetric methods they are likely to contain water. We show that the levels of modelled PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations with aerosol water included agree with measurements better than dry PM concentrations. As expected, the spatial correlation has not changed significantly, whereas the temporal correlation of daily PM10 and PM2.5 with monitoring data has slightly improved at most of the EMEP sites. Our results suggest that aerosol water should be accounted for in modelled PM10 and PM2.5 when compared with filter-based gravimetric measurements.

The EURODELTA III (ED-III) exercise aimed to perform a comprehensive chemistry transport model inter-comparison study exploiting the data from four intensive measurement campaigns carried out by EMEP. The campaigns were held in different seasons (1–30 June 2006; 8 January–4 February 2007; 17 September–15 October 2008; 25 February–26 March 2009) thus allowing to test the influence of different meteorological conditions on models’ results. Seven models simulated the air quality over the whole Europe: CHIM (CHIMERE; version chim2013), EMEP (rv 4.1.3), LOTO (LOTOSEUROS, V1.8), CAMX (CAMx, v5.41 VBS), MINNI (version 4.7), CMAQ (V5.0.1) and RCG (v.2.1). Except CMAQ, all the models performed simulations over the same domain with the same horizontal spatial resolution. They also used the same input data (emissions, meteorology and boundary conditions) as much as possible. This work presents and discusses the behaviour of the models with regard to the criteria defined in the EU Directive on Air Quality 2008/50/EC for the air concentrations of PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2 and SO2 and to the meteorological conditions. The wet deposition of sulphate (S) (WSOx), of oxidized and reduced nitrogen (N) (WNOx and WNHx, respectively) and the air concentrations of the deposited species were also investigated. Furthermore, a comparison of the capacities of air quality models to simulate carbonaceous aerosols (elemental (EC) and organic carbon (OC)) in Europe was conducted, given the diversity in modelling natural precursor emissions and formation and evolution of organic species, both natural and anthropogenic. In addition to EMEP data, the evaluation of models’ output included AirBase data and meteorological data from more than 2000 synoptic stations. The simulated concentrations of organic aerosol (OA) were compared to measurements available from two intensive measurement field campaigns carried out in a joint framework of EMEP and EUCAARI (the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions) project in 2008 and 2009. © 2018 Hungarian Meteorological Service. All Rights Reserved. ARIANET srl-Aria Technologies SA; Combustion Ltd.; Eurelettronica ICAS; Lombard and Marozzini srl

The model trend analysis for PM10 and PM2.5, performed within the Eurodelta-Trends experiment, covers 21 year, from 1990 through 2010, with particular focus on the period 2001-2010 for which appropriate amount of PM observations is available. Eight chemical transport models (CTM) participated in the multi-modal trend analysis: EMEP/MSC-W, CHIMERE, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI, MATCH, WRF-Chem, CMAQ and Polyphemus (out of which six models performed trend runs for the 21-year period). The average modelled trends are somewhat smaller than the observed, though the models identify significant PM trends at more sites in the period 2001-2010. There are considerable difference in the PM trends between the regions/countries and in different seasons. Investigation of the changes in PM chemical composition during the investigated period shows that the models differ in terms of relative contribution of the individual PM components to the PM trends. For the 2001-2010 period, the effcct of inter-annual meteorological variability appears more important relative to emission changes. Finally, we look at PM trends/changes during the 1990-2010 period.

The carbonaceous aerosol accounts for an important part of total aerosol mass, affects human health and climate through its effects on physical and chemical properties of the aerosol, yet the understanding of its atmospheric sources and sinks is still incomplete. This study shows the state-of-the-art in modelling carbonaceous aerosol over Europe by comparing simulations performed with seven chemical transport models (CTMs) currently in air quality assessments in Europe: CAMx, CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP/MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MINNI and RCGC. The simulations were carried out in the framework of the EURODELTA III modelling exercise and were evaluated against field measurements from intensive campaigns of European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) and the European Integrated Project on Aerosol Cloud Climate and Air Quality Interactions (EUCAARI). Model simulations were performed over the same domain, using as much as possible the same input data and covering four seasons: summer (1–30 June 2006), winter (8 January – 4 February 2007), autumn (17 September- 15 October 2008) and spring (25 February - 26 March 2009). The analyses of models’ performances in prediction of elemental carbon (EC) for the four seasons and organic aerosol components (OA) for the last two seasons show that all models generally underestimate the measured concentrations. The maximum underestimation of EC is about 60% and up to about 80% for total organic matter (TOM). The underestimation of TOM outside of highly polluted area is a consequence of an underestimation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), in particular of its main contributor: biogenic secondary aerosol (BSOA). This result is independent on the SOA modelling approach used and season. The concentrations and daily cycles of total primary organic matter (TPOM) are generally better reproduced by the models since they used the same anthropogenic emissions. However, the combination of emissions and model formulation leads to overestimate TPOM concentrations in 2009 for most of the models. All models capture relatively well the SOA daily cycles at rural stations mainly due to the spatial resolution used in the simulations. For the investigated carbonaceous aerosol compounds, the differences between the concentrations simulated by different models are lower than the differences between the concentrations simulated with a model for different seasons. Keywords: Elemental carbon, Organic aerosol, Secondary organic aerosol, Model validation, Model inter-comparison

The wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe for the period 1990–2010 was estimated by six atmospheric chemistry transport models (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH and MINNI) within the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends model intercomparison. The simulated wet deposition and its trends for two 11-year periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) were evaluated using data from observations from the EMEP European monitoring network. For annual wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen (WNOx), model bias was within 30 % of the average of the observations for most models. There was a tendency for most models to underestimate annual wet deposition of reduced nitrogen (WNHx), although the model bias was within 40 % of the average of the observations. Model bias for WNHx was inversely correlated with model bias for atmospheric concentrations of NH3+NH4+, suggesting that an underestimation of wet deposition partially contributed to an overestimation of atmospheric concentrations. Model bias was also within about 40 % of the average of the observations for the annual wet deposition of sulfur (WSOx) for most models. Decreasing trends in WNOx were observed at most sites for both 11-year periods, with larger trends, on average, for the second period. The models also estimated predominantly decreasing trends at the monitoring sites and all but one of the models estimated larger trends, on average, for the second period. Decreasing trends were also observed at most sites for WNHx, although larger trends, on average, were observed for the first period. This pattern was not reproduced by the models, which estimated smaller decreasing trends, on average, than those observed or even small increasing trends. The largest observed trends were for WSOx, with decreasing trends at more than 80 % of the sites. On average, the observed trends were larger for the first period. All models were able to reproduce this pattern, although some models underestimated the trends (by up to a factor of 4) and others overestimated them (by up to 40 %), on average. These biases in modelled trends were directly related to the tendency of the models to under- or overestimate annual wet deposition and were smaller for the relative trends (expressed as % yr−1 relative to the deposition at the start of the period). The fact that model biases were fairly constant throughout the time series makes it possible to improve the predictions of wet deposition for future scenarios by adjusting the model estimates using a bias correction calculated from past observations. An analysis of the contributions of various factors to the modelled trends suggests that the predominantly decreasing trends in wet deposition are mostly due to reductions in emissions of the precursors NOx, NH3 and SOx. However, changes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation) and other (non-linear) interactions partially offset the decreasing trends due to emission reductions during the first period but not the second. This suggests that the emission reduction measures had a relatively larger effect on wet deposition during the second period, at least for the sites with observations.

Several datasets of PM2.5 concentrations over Europe during the 1990–2015 period, were used to calculate health impacts from chronic exposure to total particle matter below 2.5 μm (i.e. PM2.5). The datasets used in the analysis include the European Topic Centre on Air Pollution and Climate Change Mitigation (ETC/ACM), the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS), the Global Burden of Disease (GBD), the World Health Organization (WHO) as well as the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) multi-model reanalysis developed specifically for Europe.The exposure to ambient PM2.5 concentrations was calculated as population weighted annual average PM2.5 concentrations by country. The calculated exposure to PM2.5 was later used as input in the health impact assessment (HIA) Alpha-RiskPoll (ARP) tool to retrieve the total number of premature deaths.Our results indicate a substantial reduction in the number of premature deaths from PM2.5 exposure in Europe over the 1990–2010 period, between nearly 30 and 50%. Putting all the data-sets together, even if they do not cover the whole period, a decrease of even around 60% is observed between 1990 and 2015. For the countries included in this study, the estimated number of premature deaths from PM2.5 in 1990 was found to be around 960 000 (median of all the available datasets), whereas in 2015 it was found to be around 445 000. However, the variability in the estimated premature deaths from the different PM2.5 datasets was found to be large during the early 90s (around a factor of 2). For the latest years of the investigated period (2005 onwards), where a relatively flat trend in the PM2.5 exposure was observed, the differences between the different datasets were smaller.Even though our results indicate a reduction in the number of premature deaths from chronic exposure to PM2.5, the numbers remain considerable in 2015, underlining the need to continue improving air quality in the future. Keywords: PM2.5, Health impact assessment, Exposure to air pollution, Chemical transport models

The Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been performing model calculations in support of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) for more than 30 years. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model is still one of the key tools within European air pollution policy assessments. Traditionally, the model has covered all of Europe with a resolution of about 50 km × 50 km, and extending vertically from ground level to the tropopause (100 hPa). The model has changed extensively over the last ten years, however, with flexible processing of chemical schemes, meteorological inputs, and with nesting capability: the code is now applied on scales ranging from local (ca. 5 km grid size) to global (with 1 degree resolution). The model is used to simulate photo-oxidants and both inorganic and organic aerosols. In 2008 the EMEP model was released for the first time as public domain code, along with all required input data for model runs for one year. The second release of the EMEP MSC-W model became available in mid 2011, and a new release is targeted for summer 2012. This publication is intended to document this third release of the EMEP MSC-W model. The model formulations are given, along with details of input data-sets which are used, and a brief background on some of the choices made in the formulation is presented. The model code itself is available at www.emep.int, along with the data required to run for a full year over Europe.

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