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31 results on '"Sweeney, Richard J."'

1. Tariffs and welfare: A common, invalid anti-tariff argument

Author

Sweeney Richard J.

Subjects
tariffs, anti-tariff arguments, optimal tariff, free trade, use of tariff revenue, tariff warfare, f10, f11, f13, f51, f68, Economics as a science, HB71-74
Abstract

President Trump imposed tariffs in 2017 on several of China’s exports, notably steel. Many papers opposed these tariffs by using a common, invalid argument: rather than arguing these tariffs reduced U.S. welfare, they argue U.S. consumers and businesses pay the tariffs, a different, rhetorical issue. Their main evidence of harm is increases in imported goods’ after-tariff U.S. prices, especially relative to other goods’ U.S. prices. In a standard, small general equilibrium model (two countries, two goods, two factors), this price evidence is wholly ambiguous—it is even consistent with the view that Trump’s tariff was optimal, increasing U.S. welfare. Even sophisticated papers are similarly ambiguous. All fail because they neglect how government uses tariff revenue. Relying on fallacious arguments makes the free-trade position look weak and encourages protectionism.

Published
2023
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2. Constitutional conflicts in the European Union: Court packing in Poland versus the United States

Author

Sweeney Richard J.

Subjects
poland, constitutional law, constitutional court, constitutional rights, supreme court compliance, judiciary, court packing, european union, united states, Economics as a science, HB71-74
Abstract

Court packing greatly threatens democracy. This paper examines, compares and draws conclusions from two attempts: The PiS government is near to packing Polish courts; President Roosevelt tried but failed to pack the U.S. Supreme Court in 1937. In most democracies a head of government with a legislative majority and strong party control can pack courts, giving complete control. The United States escaped; Roosevelt lacked complete party control. Poland is unlucky; PiS is strongly controlled. Peaceful domestic protest is necessary, but Poland’s hope is from EU-level institutional pressure, supported by major democracies, to reverse packing and prevent further seizure of power.

Published
2018
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15. International evidence on Friedman's theory of the business cycle

Author

Goodwin, Thomas H. and Sweeney, Richard J.

Subjects
Business cycles -- Models -- Research, Business, general, Economics, Models, Research
Abstract

Milton Friedman's theory of the business cycle implies two empirical regularities tested for here. One regularity is that business cycles are asymmetric: The size of a contraction affects the size of the following expansion, but not vice versa. The second regularity is that a supply-side ceiling to aggregate output limits the size of expansions. Friedman's correlation methods yield only very weak support for the asymmetry hypothesis when applied to real GNP data of eight OECD countries. A time series model with a ceiling component fits the data well for a majority of the countries., I. INTRODUCTION Milton Friedman |1969; 1993~ discusses two empirical business cycle regularities he finds in U.S. data and conjectures that they may exist in other countries' data. First, Friedman argues [...]

Published
1993

16. The market value of debt, market versus book value of debt, and returns of assets

Author

Sweeney, Richard J., Warga, Arthur D., and Winters, Drew

Subjects
Debt -- Valuation -- Analysis -- Measurement, Leverage (Finance) -- Measurement -- Analysis, Book value (Accounting) -- Analysis -- Measurement, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Business, Valuation, Analysis, Measurement
Abstract

Empirical research typically relies on book rather than market value of debt, though theory is virtually always in terms of market values. This paper documents how book value measurements of [...]

Published
1997

18. Pitfalls in Cross-Section Studies with integrated Regressors: Survey and New Developments

Author

Bekiros, Stelios, Sjö, Bo, Sweeney, Richard J., Bekiros, Stelios, Sjö, Bo, and Sweeney, Richard J.

Abstract

In cross-section studies, if the dependent variable is I(0) but the regressor is I(1), the true slope must be zero in the resulting "unbalanced regression." A spuriously significant relationship may be found in large cross sections, however, if the integrated regressor is related to a stationary variable that enters the DGP but is omitted from the regression. The solution is to search for the related stationary variable, in some cases the first difference of the integrated regressor, in other cases a categorical variable that can take on limited number of values which depend on the integrated variable. We present an extensive survey, new developments and applications in finance.

Published
2018
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19. Constitutional conflicts in the European Union : Court packing in Poland versus the United States

Author

Sweeney, Richard J. and Sweeney, Richard J.

Abstract

Court packing greatly threatens democracy. This paper examines, compares and draws conclusions from two attempts: The PiS government is near to packing Polish courts; President Roosevelt tried but failed to pack the U.S. Supreme Court in 1937. In most democracies a head of government with a legislative majority and strong party control can pack courts, giving complete control. The United States escaped; Roosevelt lacked complete party control. Poland is unlucky; PiS is strongly controlled. Peaceful domestic protest is necessary, but Poland’s hope is from EU-level institutional pressure, supported by major democracies, to reverse packing and prevent further seizure of power.

Published
2018
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20. Rejection Probabilities for a Battery of Unit-Root Tests

Author

Maican, Florin G. and Sweeney, Richard J.

Subjects
unit root, break models, real exchange rates, Monte Carlo
Abstract

If the researcher tests each model in a battery at the a % significance level, the probability that at least one test rejects is generally larger than a %. For five unit-root models, this paper uses Monte Carlo simulation and the inclusion-exclusion principle to show for a %=5% for each test, the probability that at least one test rejects is 16.2% rather than the upper-bound of 25% from the Bonferroni inequality. It also gives estimated probabilities that any combination two, three, four or five models all reject. JEL Classification: C15; C22; C32; C33; E31; F31.

Published
2013

22. Nowe rynki papierów wartościowych a lekcje z historii

Author

Sweeney, Richard J.

Abstract

Many stock markets develop in step with the country's economy. Of course there is likely some two-way causation between developments in the economy and stock markets. In the U.S., before the 1930's there was relatively little Federal control over stock markets, and stock markets evolved in a more or less satisfactory way. Swedish stock markets evolved over 100 years in a remarkable manner that may be applicable to an emerging stock market that government gives room to evolve. In the early 1890s, stocks traded once a month through one broker. In the later part of the decade another broker entered and trading occurred twice a month. No stock traded in every month during the decade, and the median and mean number of trades was one for stocks that traded at all. By the late teens of the twentieth century, the market had evolved to where a stock market index was meaningful. In the post second world war period, Swedish turnover taxes drove much trading to London for big firms and large trades. Bad government policy can hurt the evolution of emerging stock markets. Much interest in emerging stock markets arises from high returns and low correlation with developed-country markets. The belief in high returns and low correlations arises from data from the late 1980s and early 1990s. These patterns are unlikely to repeat. The benefits of diversification look substantially smaller when data from the 1890s on are examined, primarily because of the disasters of the first and second world wars. Emerging market economies should not count on continued outside interest that result from overestimation of the benefits of international diversification. Digitalizacja i deponowanie archiwalnych zeszytów RPEiS sfinansowane przez MNiSW w ramach realizacji umowy nr 541/P-DUN/2016

Published
1996

23. The possibility of estimating risk premia in asset pricing models

Author

Sweeney, Richard J. and Warga, Arthur D.

Subjects
Risk management -- Methods, Assets (Accounting) -- Valuation, Risk (Economics) -- Analysis, Banking, finance and accounting industries, Business
Abstract

The market value of the ex ante risk premium is of major interest to economists involved with finance, for investment planning and for decision-making applications. One technique that is used to project the ex ante premium is to calculate the average of the recent realizations or take the market's sample risk premium. The population estimate can be made with the proper adjustments.

Published
1986

24. Time-varying foreign-exchange risk and central bank intervention: estimating profits from intervention and speculation

Author

Sjö, Bo, Sweeney, Richard J., Sjö, Bo, and Sweeney, Richard J.

Abstract

Failure to risk-adjust estimates of profits, from central-bank foreign exchange intervention or from private speculation, can have large effects on the estimated profits, including changing signs. Many choices arise in deciding how to adjust profits for risk. The time period over which a market model is fit has mixed effects on calendar-year profits; variations in profits across calendar years is much more important than the period over which the market model is fit. In some cases, but not in all, results are sensitive to whether a US stock market index is used or a world market index. For non-US central banks or private speculators, the relevant market index might be denominated in USD, but alternatively might be denominated in a foreign currency. For the Swedish central bank, estimated profits decline importantly if an index measured in USD is used instead of an index measured in SEK. In estimating market models where beta is conditioned on some measure of intervention, likely candidates are intervention or cumulative intervention; the first has an effect for one or a few days, the second has long-term effects. Estimates show that the choice can make an important difference, though the effects are not all one way.

Published
2000
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