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During the operational phase of the ICARTT field experiment in 2004, the regional air quality model STEM showed a strong positive surface bias and a negative upper troposphere bias (compared to observed DC-8 and WP-3 observations) with respect to ozone. After updating emissions from NEI 1999 to NEI 2001 (with a 2004 large point sources inventory update), and modifying boundary conditions, low-level model bias decreases from 11.21 to 1.45 ppbv for the NASA DC-8 observations and from 8.26 to -0.34 for the NOAA WP-3. Improvements in boundary conditions provided by global models decrease the upper troposphere negative ozone bias, while accounting for biomass burning emissions improved model performance for CO. The covariances of ozone bias were highly correlated to NOz, NOy, and HNO3 biases. Interpolation of bias information through kriging showed that decreasing emissions in SE United States would reduce regional ozone model bias and improve model correlation coefficients. The spatial distribution of forecast errors was analyzed using kriging, which identified distinct features, which when compared to errors in postanalysis simulations, helped document improvements. Changes in dry deposition to crops were shown to reduce substantially high bias in the forecasts in the Midwest, while updated emissions were shown to account for decreases in bias in the eastern United States. Observed and modeled ozone production efficiencies for the DC-8 Were calculated and shown to be very similar (7.8) suggesting that recurring ozone bias is due to overestimation of NOx, emissions. Sensitivity studies showed that ozone formation in the United States is most sensitive to NOx, emissions, followed by VOCs and CO. PAN as a reservoir of NOx, can contribute to a significant amount of surface ozone through thermal decomposition. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Aircraft observations of Asian outflow from the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) aircraft mission over the NW Pacific (March and April 2001) show large CH4 enhancements relative to background, as well as strong CH4-C2H 6-CO correlations that provide signatures of regional sources. We apply a global chemical transport model simulation of the CH4-C2H6-CO system for the TRACE-P period to interpret these observations in terms of CH4 sources and to explore in particular the unique constraints from the CH 4-C2H6-CO correlations. We use as a priori a global CH4 source inventory constrained with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory (CMDL) surface observations [Wang et al., 2004]. We find that the observed CH4 concentration enhancements and CH4-C2H6-CO correlations in Asian outflow in TRACE-P are deterinined mainly by anthropogenic emissions from China and Eurasia (defined here as Europe and eastern Russia), with only little contribution from tropical sources (wetlands and biomass burning). The a priori inventory overestimates the observed CH4 enhancements and shows regionally variable biases for the CH4/C2H6 slope. The CH 4/CO slopes are simulated without significant bias. Matching both the observed CH4 enhancements and the CH 4-C2H6-CO slopes in Asian outflow requires increasing the east Asian anthropogenic source of CH 4, and decreasing the Eurasian anthropogenic source, by at least 30% for both. The need to increase the east Asian source is driven by the underestimate of the CH4/C2H 6 slope in boundary layer Chinese outflow. The Streets et al. [2003] anthropogenic emission inventory for east Asia fits this constraint by increasing CH4 emissions from that region by 40% relative to the a priori, largely because of higher livestock and landfill source estimates. Eurasian sources (mostly European) then need to be reduced by 30-50% from the a priori value of 68 Tg yr -1. The decrease of European sources could result in part from recent mitigation of emissions from coal mining and landfills. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

An extensive set of carbonyl sulfide (OCS) and carbon disulfide (CS 2) observations were made as part of the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) project, which took place in the early spring 2001. TRACE-P sampling focused on the western Pacific region but in total included the geographic region 110°E to 290°E longitude, 5°N to 50°N latitude, and 0-12 km altitude. Substantial OCS and CS2 enhancements were observed for a great many air masses of Chinese and Japanese origin during TRACE-P. Over the western Pacific, mean mixing ratios of long-lived OCS and shorter-lived CS2 showed a gradual decrease by about 10% and a factor of 5-10, respectively, from the surface to 8-10 km altitude, presumably because land-based sources dominated their distribution during February through April 2001. The highest mean OCS and CS 2 levels (580 and 20 pptv, respectively, based on 2.5° × 2.5° latitude bins) were observed below 2 km near the coast of Asia, at latitudes between 25°N and 35°N, where urban Asian outflow was strongest. Ratios of OCS versus CO for continental SE Asia were much lower compared to Chinese and Japanese signatures and were strongly associated with biomass burning/biofuel emissions. We present a new inventory of anthropogenic Asian emissions (including biomass burning) for OCS and CS2 and compare it to emission estimates based on regional relationships of OCS and CS 2 to CO and CO2. The OCS and CS2 results for the two methods compare well for continental SE Asia and Japan plus Korea and also for Chinese CS2 emissions. However, it appears that the inventory underestimates Chinese emissions of OCS by about 30-100%. This difference may be related to the fact that we did not include natural sources such as wetland emissions in our inventory, although the contributions from such sources are believed to be at a seasonal low during the study period. Uncertainties in OCS emissions from Chinese coal burning, which are poorly characterized, likely contribute to the discrepancy. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Author(s): Qiang Zhang (corresponding author) [1]; Xujia Jiang [1, 2]; Dan Tong [1]; Steven J. Davis (corresponding author) [1, 3]; Hongyan Zhao [1]; Guannan Geng [1]; Tong Feng [1]; Bo [...]

A study on the consequences of Chinese energy policy with respect to reduction in emissions of air pollutants is presented.