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Background: Stochastic modelling plays a crucial role in comprehending the dynamics of intracellular events in various biochemical systems, including gene-expression models. Cell-to-cell variability arises from the stochasticity or noise in the levels of gene products such as messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein. The sources of noise can stem from different factors, including structural elements. Recent studies have revealed that the mRNA structure can be more intricate than previously assumed. Results: Here, we focus on the formation of stem-loops and present a reinterpretation of previous data, offering new insights. Our analysis demonstrates that stem-loops that restrict translation have the potential to reduce noise. Conclusions: In conclusion, we investigate a structured/generalised version of a stochastic gene-expression model, wherein mRNA molecules can be found in one of their finite number of different states and transition between them. By characterising and deriving non-trivial analytical expressions for the steady-state protein distribution, we provide two specific examples which can be readily obtained from the structured/generalised model, showcasing the model's practical applicability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant breeding is a complex endeavor that is almost always multi-objective in nature. In recent years, stochastic breeding simulations have been used by breeders to assess the merits of alternative breeding strategies and assist in decision-making. In addition to simulations, visualization of a Pareto frontier for multiple competing breeding objectives can assist breeders in decision-making. This paper introduces Python Breeding Optimizer and Simulator (PyBrOpS), a Python package capable of performing multi-objective optimization of breeding objectives and stochastic simulations of breeding pipelines. PyBrOpS is unique among other simulation platforms in that it can perform multi-objective optimizations and incorporate these results into breeding simulations. PyBrOpS is built to be highly modular and has a script-based philosophy, making it highly extensible and customizable. In this paper, we describe some of the main features of PyBrOpS and demonstrate its ability to map Pareto frontiers for breeding possibilities and perform multi-objective selection in a simulated breeding pipeline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The major drawback to the implementation of genomic selection in a breeding program lies in long-term decrease in additive genetic variance, which is a trade-off for rapid genetic improvement in short term. Balancing increase in genetic gain with retention of additive genetic variance necessitates careful optimization of this trade-off. In this study, we proposed an integrated index selection approach within the genomic inferred cross-selection (GCS) framework to maximize genetic gain across multiple traits. With this method, we identified optimal crosses that simultaneously maximize progeny performance and maintain genetic variance for multiple traits. Using a stochastic simulated recurrent breeding program over a 40-years period, we evaluated different GCS methods along with other factors, such as the number of parents, crosses, and progeny per cross, that influence genetic gain in a pulse crop breeding program. Across all breeding scenarios, the posterior mean variance consistently enhances genetic gain when compared to other methods, such as the usefulness criterion, optimal haploid value, mean genomic estimated breeding value, and mean index selection value of the superior parents. In addition, we provide a detailed strategy to optimize the number of parents, crosses, and progeny per cross that can potentially maximize short- and long-term genetic gain in a public breeding program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Stochastic models are commonly employed in the system and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. Many important models feature complex dynamics, involving a state-space explosion, stiffness, and multimodality, that complicate the quantitative analysis needed to understand their stochastic behavior. Direct numerical analysis of such models is typically not feasible and generating many simulation runs that adequately approximate the model’s dynamics may take a prohibitively long time. Results We propose a new memoization technique that leverages a population-based abstraction and combines previously generated parts of simulations, called segments, to generate new simulations more efficiently while preserving the original system’s dynamics and its diversity. Our algorithm adapts online to identify the most important abstract states and thus utilizes the available memory efficiently. Conclusion We demonstrate that in combination with a novel fully automatic and adaptive hybrid simulation scheme, we can speed up the generation of trajectories significantly and correctly predict the transient behavior of complex stochastic systems.

Abstract Background Stochastic modelling plays a crucial role in comprehending the dynamics of intracellular events in various biochemical systems, including gene-expression models. Cell-to-cell variability arises from the stochasticity or noise in the levels of gene products such as messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein. The sources of noise can stem from different factors, including structural elements. Recent studies have revealed that the mRNA structure can be more intricate than previously assumed. Results Here, we focus on the formation of stem-loops and present a reinterpretation of previous data, offering new insights. Our analysis demonstrates that stem-loops that restrict translation have the potential to reduce noise. Conclusions In conclusion, we investigate a structured/generalised version of a stochastic gene-expression model, wherein mRNA molecules can be found in one of their finite number of different states and transition between them. By characterising and deriving non-trivial analytical expressions for the steady-state protein distribution, we provide two specific examples which can be readily obtained from the structured/generalised model, showcasing the model’s practical applicability.

Genomic selection and doubled haploids hold significant potential to enhance genetic gains and shorten breeding cycles across various crops. Here, we utilized stochastic simulations to investigate the best strategies for optimize a sweet corn breeding program. We assessed the effects of incorporating varying proportions of old and new parents into the crossing block (3:1, 1:1, 1:3, and 0:1 ratio, representing different degrees of parental substitution), as well as the implementation of genomic selection in two distinct pipelines: one calibrated using the phenotypes of testcross parents (GSTC scenario) and another using F1 individuals (GSF1). Additionally, we examined scenarios with doubled haploids, both with (DH) and without (DHGS) genomic selection. Across 20 years of simulated breeding, we evaluated scenarios considering traits with varying heritabilities, the presence or absence of genotype-by-environment effects, and two program sizes (50 vs 200 crosses per generation). We also assessed parameters such as parental genetic mean, average genetic variance, hybrid mean, and implementation costs for each scenario. Results indicated that within a conventional selection program, a 1:3 parental substitution ratio (replacing 75% of parents each generation with new lines) yielded the highest performance. Furthermore, the GSTC model outperformed the GSF1 model in enhancing genetic gain. The DHGS model emerged as the most effective, reducing cycle time from 5 to 4 years and enhancing hybrid gains despite increased costs. In conclusion, our findings strongly advocate for the integration of genomic selection and doubled haploids into sweet corn breeding programs, offering accelerated genetic gains and efficiency improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluation of urban environmental sustainability is an important prerequisite for scientific decision-making of urban sustainability. This paper proposed an evaluation method of urban environmental sustainability based on the integration of multi-improvement demands. Considering the interaction between the economic and social systems on the environmental system, this paper constructed an urban environmental sustainability evaluation indicator system from three dimensions: environmental foundation, environmental pollution, and environmental protection. Combined with the actual improvement demands of each city, a corresponding weighting method was constructed, and the weights of each city's individualized improvement demands were obtained through the analysis of indicator data. Further, in order to consider the fairness and guidance of the evaluation, the corresponding random simulation algorithm was matched for the individualized weights, and the evaluation value and the superiority probability in a stable state after multiple simulations were sought. Based on this, this paper conducted an empirical evaluation of urban environmental sustainability of the 14 cities in Liaoning Province, China. Through the demand-driven evaluation model, cities can obtain improvement suggestions that meet their demands while understanding their environmental sustainability level. It is convenient for top-down policy guidance and bottom-up practical exploration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Great deviations in building energy consumption simulation are attributed to the simplified settings of occupants' air conditioning (AC) usage schedules. This study was designed to develop a method to quantify the uncertainty and randomness of AC usage behavior and incorporate the model into simulations, in order to improve the prediction performance of AC energy consumption. Based on long-term onsite monitoring of household thermal environments and AC usage patterns, two stochastic models were built using unsupervised cluster and statistical methods. Based on the Monte Carlo method, the AC operation schedule was generated through AC opening duration, setpoints, and other relevant parameters, and was further incorporated into EnergyPlus. The results show that the ideally deterministic AC operation settings from the standard significantly overestimate the cooling energy consumption, where the value based on the fixed mode was 6.35 times higher. The distribution of daily AC energy consumption based on the stochastic modeling was highly consistent with the actual situation, thanks to the accurate prediction of the randomness and dynamics of residents' AC usage patterns. The total cooling energy consumption based on two stochastic models was found to be much closer to the actual values. The work proposes a method of embedding stochastic AC usage models to EnergyPlus 22.1 benefits for an improvement in building energy consumption simulation and the energy efficiency evaluation regarding occupant behavior in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Stochastic models are commonly employed in the system and synthetic biology to study the effects of stochastic fluctuations emanating from reactions involving species with low copy-numbers. Many important models feature complex dynamics, involving a state-space explosion, stiffness, and multimodality, that complicate the quantitative analysis needed to understand their stochastic behavior. Direct numerical analysis of such models is typically not feasible and generating many simulation runs that adequately approximate the model’s dynamics may take a prohibitively long time. Results: We propose a new memoization technique that leverages a population-based abstraction and combines previously generated parts of simulations, called segments, to generate new simulations more efficiently while preserving the original system’s dynamics and its diversity. Our algorithm adapts online to identify the most important abstract states and thus utilizes the available memory efficiently. Conclusion: We demonstrate that in combination with a novel fully automatic and adaptive hybrid simulation scheme, we can speed up the generation of trajectories significantly and correctly predict the transient behavior of complex stochastic systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this work, we explore information geometry theoretic measures for characterizing neural information processing from EEG signals simulated by stochastic nonlinear coupled oscillator models for both healthy subjects and Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients with both eyes-closed and eyes-open conditions. In particular, we employ information rates to quantify the time evolution of probability density functions of simulated EEG signals, and employ causal information rates to quantify one signal's instantaneous influence on another signal's information rate. These two measures help us find significant and interesting distinctions between healthy subjects and AD patients when they open or close their eyes. These distinctions may be further related to differences in neural information processing activities of the corresponding brain regions, and to differences in connectivities among these brain regions. Our results show that information rate and causal information rate are superior to their more traditional or established information-theoretic counterparts, i.e., differential entropy and transfer entropy, respectively. Since these novel, information geometry theoretic measures can be applied to experimental EEG signals in a model-free manner, and they are capable of quantifying non-stationary time-varying effects, nonlinearity, and non-Gaussian stochasticity presented in real-world EEG signals, we believe that they can form an important and powerful tool-set for both understanding neural information processing in the brain and the diagnosis of neurological disorders, such as Alzheimer's disease as presented in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Paratemporal methods based on tree expansion have proven to be effective in efficiently generating the trajectories of stochastic systems. However, combinatorial explosion of branching arising from multiple choice points presents a major hurdle that must be overcome to implement such techniques. In this paper, we tackle this scalability problem by developing a systems theory-based framework covering both conventional and proposed tree expansion algorithms for speeding up discrete event system stochastic simulations while preserving the desired accuracy. An example is discussed to illustrate the tree expansion framework in which a discrete event system specification (DEVS) Markov stochastic model takes the form of a tree isomorphic to a free monoid over the branching alphabet. We derive the computation times for baseline, non-merging, and merging tree expansion algorithms to compute the distribution of output values at any given depth. The results show the remarkable reduction from exponential to polynomial dependence on depth effectuated by node merging. We relate these results to the similarly reduced computation time of binomial coefficients underlying Pascal's triangle. Finally, we discuss the application of tree expansion to estimating temporal distributions in stochastic simulations involving serial and parallel compositions with potential real-world use cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aquifer properties, such as hydraulic transmissivity T and its spatial variability, are fundamental for sustainable groundwater exploitation in arid regions. Especially in karst aquifers, spatial variability can be considerable, and the application of geostatistical methods allows for spatial interpolation and mapping based on observations combined with the quantification of uncertainties. Moreover, direct measurements of T are typically scarce, while those of specific capacity Sc are more frequent. In this study, we establish the linear regression relationship between the logarithms of T and Sc measured in 51 wells in a semi-arid karst region in Northeastern Brazil. This relationship is used to estimate empirical values logTemp based on measurements of logSc at 269 wells. LogTemp values are found to be normally distributed with an isotropic variogram of a significant nugget effect (attributed to local-scale karst features) and approximately 10 km range (attributed to larger-scale gradual changes in karst feature density). Ordinary kriging cross-validation indicates an optimum number of 25 neighboring wells for interpolation, which is used in a conditional sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) to generate 500 realizations of logTemp with respective maps of standard deviations and probabilities of (not) exceeding threshold values. High-transmissivity areas mostly coincide with karstified river valleys, while low-transmissivity areas occur toward the edges where aquifer thickness decreases. The resulting transmissivity maps are relevant for optimizing regional water management strategies, which includes stochastic approaches where transmissivity realizations can be used to parameterize multiple runs of numerical groundwater models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lying and truth-telling are conflicting behavioral strategies that pervade much of the lives of social animals and, as such, have always been topics of interest to both biology and philosophy. This age-old conflict is linked to one of the most serious threats facing society today, viz., the collapse of trustworthy sources of information. Here, we revisit this problem in the context of the two-choice sender–receiver game: the sender tosses a coin and reports the supposed outcome to the receiver, who must guess the true outcome of the toss. For the sender, the options are to lie or tell the truth, while for the receiver, the options are to believe or disbelieve the sender's account. We assume that social learning determines the strategy used by players and, in particular, that players tend to imitate successful individuals and thus change their strategies. Using the replicator equation formulation for infinite populations and stochastic simulations for finite populations, we find that when the sender benefits from the receiver's failure, the outcome of the game dynamics depends strongly on the choice of initial strategies. This sensitivity to the initial conditions may reflect the unpredictability of social systems whose members have antagonistic interests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ranking and selection (R&S) procedures in simulation optimization simulate every feasible solution to provide global statistical error control, often selecting a single solution in finite time that is optimal or near-optimal with high probability. By exploiting parallel computing advancements, large-scale problems with hundreds of thousands and even millions of feasible solutions are suitable for R&S. Naively parallelizing existing R&S methods originally designed for a serial computing setting is generally ineffective, however, as many of these conventional methods uphold family-wise error guarantees that suffer from multiplicity and require pairwise comparisons that present a computational bottleneck. Parallel adaptive survivor selection (PASS) is a new framework specifically designed for large-scale parallel R&S. By comparing systems to an adaptive "standard" that is learned as the algorithm progresses, PASS eliminates inferior solutions with false elimination rate control and with computationally efficient aggregate comparisons rather than pairwise comparisons. PASS satisfies desirable theoretical properties and performs effectively on realistic problems. We reconsider the ranking and selection (R&S) problem in stochastic simulation optimization in light of high-performance, parallel computing, where we take "R&S" to mean any procedure that simulates all systems (feasible solutions) to provide some statistical guarantee on the selected systems. We argue that when the number of systems is very large, and the parallel processing capability is also substantial, then neither the standard statistical guarantees such as probability of correct selection nor the usual observation-saving methods such as elimination via paired comparisons or complex budget allocation serve the experimenter well. As an alternative, we propose a guarantee on the expected false elimination rate that avoids the curse of multiplicity and a method to achieve it that is designed to scale computationally with problem size and parallel computing capacity. To facilitate this approach, we present a new mathematical representation, prove small-sample and asymptotic properties, evaluate variations of the method, and demonstrate a specific implementation on a problem with over 1 , 100 , 000 systems using only 21 parallel processors. Although we focus on inference about the best system here, our parallel adaptive survivor selection framework can be generalized to many other useful definitions of "good" systems. Funding: This work was supported by the National Science Foundation [Grants CMMI-1537060 and CMMI-1554144]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2022.2343. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mexico City Metrobus is one of the most popular forms of public transportation inside the city, and since its opening in 2005, it has become a vital piece of infrastructure for the city; this is why the optimal functioning of the system is of key importance to Mexico City, as it plays a crucial role in moving millions of passengers every day. This paper presents a model to simulate Line 1 of the Mexico City Metrobus, which can be adapted to simulate other bus rapid transit (BRT) systems. We give a detailed description of the model development so that the reader can replicate our model. We developed various response variables in order to evaluate the system’s performance, which focused on passenger satisfaction and measured the maximum occupancy that a passenger experiences inside the buses, as well as the time that he spends in the queues at the stations. The results of the experiments show that it is possible to increase passenger satisfaction by considering different combinations of routes while maintaining the same fuel consumption. It was shown that, by considering an appropriate combination of routes, the average passenger satisfaction could surpass the satisfaction levels obtained by a 10% increase in total fuel consumption.

BackgroundAn understanding of epidemiological dynamics, once confined to mathematical epidemiologists and applied mathematicians, can be disseminated to a non-mathematical community of health care professionals and applied biologists through simple-to-use simulation applications. We used Numerus Model Builder RAMP Ⓡ (Runtime Alterable Model Platform) technology, to construct deterministic and stochastic versions of compartmental SIR (Susceptible, Infectious, Recovered with immunity) models as simple-to-use, freely available, epidemic simulation application programs.ResultsWe take the reader through simulations used to demonstrate the following concepts: 1) disease prevalence curves of unmitigated outbreaks have a single peak and result in epidemics that 'burn' through the population to become extinguished when the proportion of the susceptible population drops below a critical level; 2) if immunity in recovered individuals wanes sufficiently fast then the disease persists indefinitely as an endemic state, with possible dampening oscillations following the initial outbreak phase; 3) the steepness and initial peak of the prevalence curve are influenced by the basic reproductive value R0, which must exceed 1 for an epidemic to occur; 4) the probability that a single infectious individual in a closed population (i.e. no migration) gives rise to an epidemic increases with the value of R0>1; 5) behavior that adaptively decreases the contact rate among individuals with increasing prevalence has major effects on the prevalence curve including dramatic flattening of the prevalence curve along with the generation of multiple prevalence peaks; 6) the impacts of treatment are complicated to model because they effect multiple processes including transmission, recovery and mortality; 7) the impacts of vaccination policies, constrained by a fixed number of vaccination regimens and by the rate and timing of delivery, are crucially important to maximizing the ability of vaccination programs to reduce mortality.ConclusionOur presentation makes transparent the key assumptions underlying SIR epidemic models. Our RAMP simulators are meant to augment rather than replace classroom material when teaching epidemiological dynamics. They are sufficiently versatile to be used by students to address a range of research questions for term papers and even dissertations.

Great deviations in building energy consumption simulation are attributed to the simplified settings of occupants’ air conditioning (AC) usage schedules. This study was designed to develop a method to quantify the uncertainty and randomness of AC usage behavior and incorporate the model into simulations, in order to improve the prediction performance of AC energy consumption. Based on long-term onsite monitoring of household thermal environments and AC usage patterns, two stochastic models were built using unsupervised cluster and statistical methods. Based on the Monte Carlo method, the AC operation schedule was generated through AC opening duration, setpoints, and other relevant parameters, and was further incorporated into EnergyPlus. The results show that the ideally deterministic AC operation settings from the standard significantly overestimate the cooling energy consumption, where the value based on the fixed mode was 6.35 times higher. The distribution of daily AC energy consumption based on the stochastic modeling was highly consistent with the actual situation, thanks to the accurate prediction of the randomness and dynamics of residents’ AC usage patterns. The total cooling energy consumption based on two stochastic models was found to be much closer to the actual values. The work proposes a method of embedding stochastic AC usage models to EnergyPlus 22.1 benefits for an improvement in building energy consumption simulation and the energy efficiency evaluation regarding occupant behavior in the future.

Human mobility contributes to the fast spatiotemporal propagation of infectious diseases. During an outbreak, monitoring the infection on either side of an international border is crucial as cross-border migration increases the risk of disease importation. Due to the unavailability of cross-border mobility data, mainly during pandemics, it becomes difficult to propose reliable, model-based strategies. In this study, we propose a method for estimating commuting-type cross-border mobility flux between any pair of regions that share an international border from the observed difference in their infection peak timings. Assuming the underlying disease dynamics are governed by a Susceptible–Infected–Recovered (SIR) model, we employ stochastic simulations to obtain the maximum likelihood cross-border mobility estimate for any pair of regions. We then investigate how the estimate of cross-border mobility flux varies depending on the transmission rate. We further show that the uncertainty in the estimates decreases for higher transmission rates and larger observed differences in peak timing. Finally, as a case study, we apply the method to some selected regions along the Poland–Germany border that are directly connected through multiple modes of transportation and quantify the cross-border fluxes from the COVID-19 cases data from 20 February to 20 June 2021.

When there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm n observations are generated for the parameters, and in the inner level m observations of the simulation model are generated with the values of parameters fixed at the values generated in the outer level. In this article, we consider the case in which the observations at both levels of the algorithm are independent and show how the variance of the observations can be decomposed into the sum of a parametric variance and a stochastic variance. Next, we derive central limit theorems that allow us to compute asymptotic confidence intervals to assess the accuracy of the simulation-based estimators for the point forecast and the variance components. Under this framework, we derive analytical expressions for the point forecast and the variance components of a Bayesian model to forecast sporadic demand, and we use these expressions to illustrate the validity of our theoretical results by performing simulation experiments with this forecast model. We found that, given a fixed number of total observations nm, the choice of only one replication in the inner level (m=1) is recommended to obtain a more accurate estimator for the expectation of a performance variable.

Abstract The use of precast prestressed concrete bridge piers is rapidly evolving and widely applied. Nevertheless, the probabilistic behavior of the bending performance of precast prestressed concrete bridge piers has often been overlooked. This study aims to address this issue by utilizing actual precast bridge piers as the engineering context. Through the implementation of the Monte-Carlo simulation and Gradient Boosted Regression Trees (GBRT) algorithm, the stochastic distribution of the bending performance and their critical factors are identified. The results show that the normal distribution is the most suitable for the random distribution of bending performance indicators. The variability of the elastic modulus of ordinary steel bars, initial strain of prestressed steel hinge wires, and constant load axial force has little effect on the bending moment performance, while the yield stress of ordinary steel bars, elastic modulus of concrete, compressive strength of unrestrained concrete, and elastic modulus of prestressed steel hinge wires have a greater impact on the bending performance. Additionally, the compressive strength of unrestrained concrete has a significant influence on the equivalent bending moment of the cross-section that concerns designers.

Numerical simulation is an important method to determine the leaching range in the process of in-situ uranium mining, and the permeability coefficient is an important factor affecting the accurate calculation of leaching range by numerical simulation methods. However, the numerical model is difficult to completely describe the actual spatial distribution of permeability coefficients due to the complexity of the distribution of aquifer permeability. In order to analyze the influence of permeability coefficient uncertainty on leaching agent migration process and leaching range, according to the field condition test data of sandstone-type uranium deposits in Inner Mongolia, 200 random fields of permeability coefficient in accordance with the specific distribution were obtained using the Python geostatistical software package GSTools. All permeability coefficient random fields were applied to solute transport simulation, and Monte Carlo method was used to convert the parameter uncertainty of permeability coefficient into the uncertainty of model results. The results of simulation under homogeneous and heterogeneous permeability conditions were compared. The leaching agent in homogeneous conditions could not migrate outward and the leaching range is a regular circular shape. The direction of leaching agent migration is affected by the regional permeability between pumping and injection wells under heterogeneous conditions of permeability coefficients. When the permeability coefficient of the region between the pumping and injection wells is relatively higher, the leaching agent migrates only to the pumping wells and not outward. Conversely, a part of the leaching agent would spread along the preferential flow channels to the high-permeability region outside the pumping and injection wells region, resulting in a non-regular shape of contamination plume. Based on the analysis of the actual geological conditions, the complexity of its spatial distribution is ignored when the permeability coefficient is extended to the average value, and the influence of the random distribution of the permeability coefficient should be considered in the model. However, the leaching range obtained from different permeability coefficient random fields has obvious differences, indicating that the uncertainty of permeability coefficient leads to the uncertainty of simulation results, which can be quantified and analyzed using relevant statistical methods. The results of the quantitative analysis show that influence of permeability coefficient uncertainty on the expansion rate of the leaching range is distinct at different time. At the initial stage of the simulation (1-20 d), the influence of the uncertainty in permeability coefficient is low, and the leaching range expanded rapidly at an average rate of 350 m2/d. With the increasing of simulation time, the influence of permeability coefficient uncertainty is significant, and the expansion rate of leaching range is 18-54 m2/d. The expansion rate decreases but the uncertainty of leaching range shows a linear increasing trend. At the end of the simulation, the distribution characteristics of leaching range of 200 groups are counted, and it is found that the leaching range is concentrated in 20 000-30 000 m2 with a high degree of uncertainty. When the confidence levels are 95%, 85%, 75% and 65%, the confidence intervals of the leaching range are 34 072.0-17 699.8, 31 900.2-19 871.6, 30 688.9-21 082.8 and 29 770.1-22 001.7 m2, respectively. The higher the confidence level, the larger the confidence interval of the leaching range, indicating the higher uncertainty, and different confidence levels can be selected to determine the dissolved leaching range according to the demand in practical applications. The research results obtained by considering the uncertainty of permeability coefficients above are suitable for actual situation, therefore the results can provide reference for the determination of leaching range in uranium mining by in-situ leaching.

The prediction of the agricultural water resources carrying capacity (AWRCC) is important for evaluating the ecological security of water resources and ensure healthy and sustainable socio-economic development. However, the AWRCC is influenced by many important factors such as water resources volume, socio-economic structure and technology level. The existing prediction methods were mainly based on the policies and economic activities under predefined scenarios. It is difficult to fully reflect the future AWRCC and generate regulation schemes based on AWRCC target requirements. The paper proposed a stochastic simulation method to simulate the evaluation indicators, which were selected based on principal component analysis (PCA) and iterative strategy, and structured a support vector machine model to solve the problem of complicated calculations to realize the probability distribution prediction of the AWRCC. Furthermore, the important indicators affecting the improvement of the AWRCC were explored, and finally a regulation schemes that met the AWRCC target were generated. The results of the calculations for Zhangjiakou, Hebei Province, indicated that there is a 97.5% probability that the AWRCC evaluation value will be Level III in 2025 and there is a 2.5% probability that it will be Level II. The probabilities of achieving close to saturated, transition, and close to weakly carriable states for the corresponding Level III are 27.5%, 61%, and 9%, respectively, and the root mean square error of the prediction is 0.0057. In addition, by adjusting the important indicators, the probability of the AWRCC reaching Level IV is 72.5%, and AWRCC improves from Level III to Level IV. The proposed method can achieve higher efficient and accurate AWRCC evaluation, which can better meet the requirements of modern water resources management, effectively reduce the misjudgment risk and provide support for water resources regulation.

Copyright of Journal of Mechanical Strength / Jixie Qiangdu is the property of Zhengzhou Research Institute of Mechanical Engineering and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Background: Stochastic modelling plays a crucial role in comprehending the dynamics of intracellular events in various biochemical systems, including gene-expression models. Cell-to-cell variability arises from the stochasticity or noise in the levels of gene products such as messenger RNA (mRNA) and protein. The sources of noise can stem from different factors, including structural elements. Recent studies have revealed that the mRNA structure can be more intricate than previously assumed. Results: Here, we focus on the formation of stem-loops and present a reinterpretation of previous data, offering new insights. Our analysis demonstrates that stem-loops that restrict translation have the potential to reduce noise. Conclusions: In conclusion, we investigate a structured/generalised version of a stochastic gene-expression model, wherein mRNA molecules can be found in one of their finite number of different states and transition between them. By characterising and deriving non-trivial analytical expressions for the steady-state protein distribution, we provide two specific examples which can be readily obtained from the structured/generalised model, showcasing the model's practical applicability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Advances in DNA sequencing technologies allow the sequencing of whole genomes of thousands of individuals and provide several million single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) per individual. These data combined with precise and high-throughput phenotyping enable genome-wide association studies (GWAS) and the identification of SNPs underlying traits with complex genetic architectures. The identified causal SNPs and estimated allelic effects could then be used for advanced marker-assisted selection (MAS) in breeding programs. But could such MAS compete with the broadly used genomic selection (GS)? This question is of particular interest for the lengthy tree breeding strategies. Here, with our new software "SNPscan breeder," we simulated a simple tree breeding program and compared the impact of different selection criteria on genetic gain and inbreeding. Further, we assessed different genetic architectures and different levels of kinship among individuals of the breeding population. Interestingly, apart from progeny testing, GS using gBLUP performed best under almost all simulated scenarios. MAS based on GWAS results outperformed GS only if the allelic effects were estimated in large populations (ca. 10,000 individuals) of unrelated individuals. Notably, GWAS using 3,000 extreme phenotypes performed as good as the use of 10,000 phenotypes. GS increased inbreeding and thus reduced genetic diversity more strongly compared to progeny testing and GWAS-based selection. We discuss the practical implications for tree breeding programs. In conclusion, our analyses further support the potential of GS for forest tree breeding and improvement, although MAS may gain relevance with decreasing sequencing costs in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warmer and drier future combined with rising population trends will result in increased wildfire risk. The design of robust mitigation/adaptation strategies requires the assessment of the economy‐wide risks from potentially more frequent large wildfire events under different futures. This study uses a novel interdisciplinary approach by integrating wildfire climate and land‐use forecasts into probabilistic and simulation models of wildfires to estimate direct impacts using damage curves and indirect impacts as lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a computable general equilibrium model. Based on the financial concept of Value at Risk, a probabilistic measure of extreme economy‐wide impacts was developed using GDP as the representative metric, namely "GDP at Risk (G@R)," under various climatic and socio‐economic scenarios. Using the new metric in the Waikato, New Zealand as a case study, due its primary industries' national relevance, it was identified that there is a 5% probability that the region will experience GDP losses greater or equal to NZ$0.1–1.2 billion (similar to the regional GDP growth in 2021) over a 48‐year period from future potential large wildfires affecting vulnerable primary industries. The regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 due to the high dependence of downstream sectors on the regional primary industries. While "G@R" estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns when compared across midcentury climate scenarios. The approach developed could be used to assess the consequences from afforestation projects, driven by mitigation policies, and adaptation strategies to reduce wildfire risk. Plain Language Summary: The risk posed by wildfires will increase under a warmer and drier future. Previous studies have estimated the economic risk from wildfires on the sectors that would likely be physically and directly impacted. However, to design inclusive and enduring strategies to reduce or adapt to wildfires; the potential impacts from wildfires should be assessed for entire national economic networks under many different social and climatic scenarios—including sectors that demand products from, or supply to, the ones directly affected. This study uses an interdisciplinary approach by combining computational models to estimate the potential economic impacts from wildfires on multiple sectors of the economy under various relevant scenarios. Rather than focusing on expected impacts, this study focuses on the potentially large impacts from rare, large wildfires on the Waikato region—economically important to New Zealand. The economic impacts from potentially more frequent large wildfires in the region are modest when compared to a scenario without large wildfires. However, the nationwide impacts are substantially larger than the regional ones when considering the dependent sectors outside of the affected region. The approach developed could be used to jointly assess mitigation (e.g., afforestation) and adaptation policies to reduce the risk from wildfires. Key Points: There is a 5% chance that the studied region will lose 0.008%–0.06% or more of the base Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from potentially more frequent large wildfiresThe regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 when considering the downstream sectors outside of the regionWhile the GDP loss estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns across climate scenarios [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mexico City Metrobus is one of the most popular forms of public transportation inside the city, and since its opening in 2005, it has become a vital piece of infrastructure for the city; this is why the optimal functioning of the system is of key importance to Mexico City, as it plays a crucial role in moving millions of passengers every day. This paper presents a model to simulate Line 1 of the Mexico City Metrobus, which can be adapted to simulate other bus rapid transit (BRT) systems. We give a detailed description of the model development so that the reader can replicate our model. We developed various response variables in order to evaluate the system's performance, which focused on passenger satisfaction and measured the maximum occupancy that a passenger experiences inside the buses, as well as the time that he spends in the queues at the stations. The results of the experiments show that it is possible to increase passenger satisfaction by considering different combinations of routes while maintaining the same fuel consumption. It was shown that, by considering an appropriate combination of routes, the average passenger satisfaction could surpass the satisfaction levels obtained by a 10% increase in total fuel consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When there is uncertainty in the value of parameters of the input random components of a stochastic simulation model, two-level nested simulation algorithms are used to estimate the expectation of performance variables of interest. In the outer level of the algorithm n observations are generated for the parameters, and in the inner level m observations of the simulation model are generated with the values of parameters fixed at the values generated in the outer level. In this article, we consider the case in which the observations at both levels of the algorithm are independent and show how the variance of the observations can be decomposed into the sum of a parametric variance and a stochastic variance. Next, we derive central limit theorems that allow us to compute asymptotic confidence intervals to assess the accuracy of the simulation-based estimators for the point forecast and the variance components. Under this framework, we derive analytical expressions for the point forecast and the variance components of a Bayesian model to forecast sporadic demand, and we use these expressions to illustrate the validity of our theoretical results by performing simulation experiments with this forecast model. We found that, given a fixed number of total observations n m , the choice of only one replication in the inner level ( m = 1 ) is recommended to obtain a more accurate estimator for the expectation of a performance variable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We considered a problem of random fluctuation spreading in complex multilayer rock strata during longwall extraction of a coal seam at a great depth. This issue is urgent because it is not easy to forecast harmful and dangerous events in underground environment having extremely uncertain geologic structure and variation of the rock properties. This paper aimed to investigate the process of the rock property random fluctuation to understand if it is possible to forecast the state of the longwall and ground pressure distribution in the gob in particular. We used a numerical computer simulation of the stress-strain redistribution during the longwall advance. The computer models were verified by the results of the ground pressure experimental monitoring in situ. We investigated the distributions of the fluctuation disturbance and revealed the underlying patterns that follow a simple and complex system. We concluded that it is possible to forecast the harmful situation during longwalling but it is need to select a direct and simple chain of cause-effects. We developed efficient proactive technologies to control the longwall operations.

Paratemporal methods based on tree expansion have proven to be effective in efficiently generating the trajectories of stochastic systems. However, combinatorial explosion of branching arising from multiple choice points presents a major hurdle that must be overcome to implement such techniques. In this paper, we tackle this scalability problem by developing a systems theory-based framework covering both conventional and proposed tree expansion algorithms for speeding up discrete event system stochastic simulations while preserving the desired accuracy. An example is discussed to illustrate the tree expansion framework in which a discrete event system specification (DEVS) Markov stochastic model takes the form of a tree isomorphic to a free monoid over the branching alphabet. We derive the computation times for baseline, non-merging, and merging tree expansion algorithms to compute the distribution of output values at any given depth. The results show the remarkable reduction from exponential to polynomial dependence on depth effectuated by node merging. We relate these results to the similarly reduced computation time of binomial coefficients underlying Pascal’s triangle. Finally, we discuss the application of tree expansion to estimating temporal distributions in stochastic simulations involving serial and parallel compositions with potential real-world use cases.

Aquifer properties, such as hydraulic transmissivity T and its spatial variability, are fundamental for sustainable groundwater exploitation in arid regions. Especially in karst aquifers, spatial variability can be considerable, and the application of geostatistical methods allows for spatial interpolation and mapping based on observations combined with the quantification of uncertainties. Moreover, direct measurements of T are typically scarce, while those of specific capacity Sc are more frequent. In this study, we establish the linear regression relationship between the logarithms of T and Sc measured in 51 wells in a semi-arid karst region in Northeastern Brazil. This relationship is used to estimate empirical values logTemp based on measurements of logSc at 269 wells. LogTemp values are found to be normally distributed with an isotropic variogram of a significant nugget effect (attributed to local-scale karst features) and approximately 10 km range (attributed to larger-scale gradual changes in karst feature density). Ordinary kriging cross-validation indicates an optimum number of 25 neighboring wells for interpolation, which is used in a conditional sequential Gaussian simulation (SGSIM) to generate 500 realizations of logTemp with respective maps of standard deviations and probabilities of (not) exceeding threshold values. High-transmissivity areas mostly coincide with karstified river valleys, while low-transmissivity areas occur toward the edges where aquifer thickness decreases. The resulting transmissivity maps are relevant for optimizing regional water management strategies, which includes stochastic approaches where transmissivity realizations can be used to parameterize multiple runs of numerical groundwater models.

A number of theoretical models have been developed in recent years modelling epidemic spread in educational settings such as universities, often as part of efforts to inform re-opening strategies during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, these studies have had differing conclusions as to the most effective non-pharmaceutical interventions. They also largely assumed permanent acquired immunity, meaning we have less understanding of how disease dynamics will play out when immunity wanes. Here, we complement these studies by developing and analysing a general stochastic simulation model of disease spread on a university campus where we allow immunity to wane, exploring the effectiveness of different interventions. We find that the two most effective interventions to limit the severity of a disease outbreak are reducing extra-household mixing and surveillance testing backed-up by a moderate isolation period. We find that contact tracing only has a limited effect, while reducing class sizes only has much effect if extra-household mixing is already low. We identify a range of measures that can not only limit an outbreak but prevent it entirely, and also comment on the variation in measures of severity that emerge from our stochastic simulations. We hope that our model may help in designing effective strategies for universities in future disease outbreaks.

Abstract A warmer and drier future combined with rising population trends will result in increased wildfire risk. The design of robust mitigation/adaptation strategies requires the assessment of the economy‐wide risks from potentially more frequent large wildfire events under different futures. This study uses a novel interdisciplinary approach by integrating wildfire climate and land‐use forecasts into probabilistic and simulation models of wildfires to estimate direct impacts using damage curves and indirect impacts as lost Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using a computable general equilibrium model. Based on the financial concept of Value at Risk, a probabilistic measure of extreme economy‐wide impacts was developed using GDP as the representative metric, namely “GDP at Risk (G@R),” under various climatic and socio‐economic scenarios. Using the new metric in the Waikato, New Zealand as a case study, due its primary industries' national relevance, it was identified that there is a 5% probability that the region will experience GDP losses greater or equal to NZ$0.1–1.2 billion (similar to the regional GDP growth in 2021) over a 48‐year period from future potential large wildfires affecting vulnerable primary industries. The regional impacts result in larger national GDP losses by a factor of 5 due to the high dependence of downstream sectors on the regional primary industries. While “G@R” estimates are similar across socio‐economic scenarios, there are no discernible patterns when compared across midcentury climate scenarios. The approach developed could be used to assess the consequences from afforestation projects, driven by mitigation policies, and adaptation strategies to reduce wildfire risk.

There exist several methods for simulating biological and physical systems as represented by chemical reaction networks. Systems with low numbers of particles are frequently modeled as discrete-state Markov jump processes and are typically simulated via a stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA). An SSA, while accurate, is often unsuitable for systems with large numbers of individuals, and can become prohibitively expensive with increasing reaction frequency. Large systems are often modeled deterministically using ordinary differential equations, sacrificing accuracy and stochasticity for computational efficiency and analytical tractability. In this paper, we present a novel hybrid technique for the accurate and efficient simulation of large chemical reaction networks. This technique, which we name the regime-conversion method, couples a discrete-state Markov jump process to a system of ordinary differential equations by simulating a reaction network using both techniques simultaneously. Individual molecules in the network are represented by exactly one regime at any given time, and may switch their governing regime depending on particle density. In this manner, we model high copy-number species using the cheaper continuum method and low copy-number species using the more expensive, discrete-state stochastic method to preserve the impact of stochastic fluctuations at low copy number. The motivation, as with similar methods, is to retain the advantages while mitigating the shortfalls of each method. We demonstrate the performance and accuracy of our method for several test problems that exhibit varying degrees of inter-connectivity and complexity by comparing averaged trajectories obtained from both our method and from exact stochastic simulation.

Plurigaussian simulation is widely used to model geological facies in geosciences and is predominantly applied in mineral deposits and petroleum reservoirs exploration. GeoSim package builds geostatistical models of categorical regionalized variables via conditional or unconditional Plurigaussian simulation and co-simulation. Co-simulation between Gaussian Random Fields representing the geological facies and other numerical variables accounting for auxiliary hydrological or geophysical quantities, is also available in this package with the definition of a linear coregionalization model. The algorithm is not restricted by the number of simulated facies and the number of truncated Gaussians, while parts of the code requiring heavy computations are compiled in C++ taking benefits of the integration between R and C++. In this work, we introduce the GeoSim package and demonstrate its capabilities. We present a 3D application focused on a lignite mine in Greece, where we investigate the Plurigaussian simulation and co-simulation of five geological facies (categorical variables) and the lower calorific value (continuous variable). The findings of our study highlight the significant benefits of Plurigaussian and co-simulation to capture the geological spatial heterogeneity.

Olive pruning residues are a by-product that can be applied to soil or used for energy production in a circular economy model. Its benefits depend on the amount of pruning, which varies greatly within farms. This study aimed to investigate the spatial variability of shreddable olive pruning in a traditional olive grove in Córdoba (Spain) with an area of 15 ha and trees distanced 12.5 m from each other. To model the spatial variability of shreddable olive pruning, geostatistical methods of stochastic simulation were applied to three correlated variables measured on sampled trees: the crown projected area (n = 928 trees), the crown volume (n = 167) and the amount of shreddable pruning (n = 59). Pearson's correlation between pairs of variables varied from 0.71 to 0.76. The amount of pruning showed great variability, ranging from 7.6 to 76 kg tree−1, with a mean value of 37 kg tree−1. Using exponential and spherical variogram models, the spatial continuity of the variables under study was established. Shreddable dry pruning weight values showed spatial autocorrelation up to 180 m. The spatial uncertainty of the estimation was obtained using sequential simulation algorithms. Stochastic simulation algorithms provided 150 possible images of the amount of shreddable pruning on the farm, using tree projected area and crown volume as secondary information. The interquartile range and 90% prediction interval were used as indicators of the uncertainty around the mean value. Uncertainty validation was performed using accuracy plots and the associated G-statistic. Results indicate with high confidence (i.e., low uncertainty) that shreddable dry pruning weight in the mid-western area of the farm will be much lower than the rest of the farm. In the same way, results show with high confidence that dry pruning weight will be much higher in a small area in the middle east of the farm. The values of the G-statistic ranged between 0.89 and 0.90 in the tests performed. The joint use of crown volume and projected areas is valuable in estimating the spatial variability of the amount of pruning. The study shows that the use of prediction intervals enables the evaluation of farm areas and informed management decisions with a low level of risk. The methodology proposed in this work can be extrapolated to other 3D crops without requiring modifications. On a larger scale, it can be useful for predicting optimal locations for biomass plants, areas with high potential as carbon sinks or areas requiring special soil protection measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hydrological time series often present nonstationarities such as trends, shifts, or oscillations due to anthropogenic effects and hydroclimatological variations, including global climate change. For water managers, it is crucial to recognize and define the nonstationarities in hydrological records. The nonstationarities must be appropriately modeled and stochastically simulated according to the characteristics of observed records to evaluate the adequacy of flood risk mitigation measures and future water resources management strategies. Therefore, in the current study, three approaches were suggested to address stochastically nonstationary behaviors, especially in the long‐term variability of hydrological variables: as an overall trend, shifting mean, or as a long‐term oscillation. To represent these options for hydrological variables, the autoregressive model with an overall trend, shifting mean level (SML), and empirical mode decomposition with nonstationary oscillation resampling (EMD‐NSOR) were employed in the hydrological series of the net basin supply in the Lake Champlain‐River Richelieu basin, where the International Joint Committee recently managed and significant flood damage from long consistent high flows occurred. The detailed results indicate that the EMD‐NSOR model can be an appropriate option by reproducing long‐term dependence statistics and generating manageable scenarios, while the SML model does not properly reproduce the observed long‐term dependence, that are critical to simulate sustainable flood events. The trend model produces too many risks for floods in the future but no risk for droughts. The overall results conclude that the nonstationarities in hydrological series should be carefully handled in stochastic simulation models to appropriately manage future water‐related risks. Plain Language Summary: The current study explores and develops three possible approaches to simulate nonstationarities in hydrometeorological variables for future management strategies of water‐related disasters, such as floods. These include the simulation as trends, shifting mean models, and oscillatory signals. Depending on the characteristics of the series, the three stochastic simulation models are tested, and conclusions are formulated. Key Points: Stochastic modeling of nonstationary hydrological time series was proposed for future flood management strategiesAutoregressive with a trend, shifting mean level, and nonstationary oscillation modes were testedStochastic models were validated with performance statistics, and the series were adequately fitted with the oscillation model [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Atomic Energy Science & Technology is the property of Editorial Board of Atomic Energy Science & Technology and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The values of the physical–mechanical properties of any soil are affected by uncertainties both due to experimental measurements and the impossibility of knowing them, in detail, at every point of the spatial domain. Accordingly, this work focuses on uncertainty in shear wave velocity (Vs) and its impact on the seismic response. The Monte Carlo method, based on pseudo-random number generation, was selected. To understand which random distributions could identify the site's real conditions, the Fourier spectrum frequencies were calculated for each realization and were compared with the predominant natural site frequency. The experimental range data were used to calculate the spectral average acceleration and the horizontal amplification factors. The simulations were performed and interpreted by a modified version of VisualQ4M software based on 2D Quad4M, including the generation of pseudo-random numbers and pre- and post-data processing. A site at a small scale, in the territory of the city of L'Aquila (Italy), was selected as the test case. This paper demonstrates, from a numerical point of view, that both a simple local topographic modification due to excavation and the uncertainties of the numerical values, even of the shear wave velocity alone, can have an important impact on the local seismic amplification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of China Rural Water & Hydropower is the property of China Rural Water & Hydropower Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In accidents involving cars with pedestrians, the impact of the head on structural parts of the vehicle presents a significant risk of injury. If the head hits the windshield, the injury is highly influenced by glass fracture. In pedestrian protection tests, a head form impactor is shot on the windshield while the resultant acceleration at the centre of gravity of the head is measured. To assess the risk of fatal or serious injury, a head injury criterion (HIC) as an explicit function of the measured acceleration can be determined. The braking strength of glass, which has a major impact on the head acceleration, however, is not deterministic but depends on production-related microcracks on the glass surface as well as on the loading rate. The aim of the present paper is to show a pragmatic method for how to include the stochastic failure of glass in crash and impact simulations. The methodology includes a fracture mechanical model for the strain rate-dependent failure of glass, an experimental determination of the glass strength for the different areas of a windshield (surface, edge, and screen-printing area), a statistical evaluation of the experimental data, and a computation of an HIC probability distribution by stochastic simulation.

Stochastic simulation is a powerful tool for analyzing complex discrete-event dynamic systems; however, it does not exhibit sufficient efficiency because of the requirement of numerous replicated simulations for obtaining accurate analysis results. Ranking and selection (R&S) efficiently allocates a simulation budget using ordinal optimization to correctly select alternatives of interest. Existing R&S methods focus on selecting an optimal alternative or a subset of optimal alternatives. Based on a generalization of this methodology, we propose an R&S method for partitioning $k$ alternatives into $n$ ( $2\le n\le k)$ exclusive ranked subsets, which is effective for job distribution and web search applications. The proposed method evaluates if the observed simulation results for each alternative have sufficient precision to correctly distinguish between the ranked subsets. It sequentially allocates a small portion of the budget based on the evaluation results, gradually improving the precision to maximize the efficiency. The superior efficiency of the proposed method compared with that of the existing methods is demonstrated using various numerical experiments. Furthermore, a practical problem that involves relocation-zone distribution in bicycle-sharing systems demonstrates that the proposed method can be effectively applied in situations requiring high simulation efficiencies, such as digital twins in complex systems.

Social structure is based on the availability of the Water-Energy-Food Nexus. To cover these needs of society, several solutions of different scales of infrastructures coexist. The construction of infrastructure is capital-intensive; therefore, investment risk is always a consideration. In this paper, we try to evaluate the investment risk by interest rates (IR). We show that IR is a key indicator, which includes multiple parameters of prosperity expressing the political and economic status quo of the society. The selection of a particular scale influences the required capital and is thus one of the most critical decisions. Water supply infrastructure is one of the foundations of society, and the selection of the optimal scale of such infrastructure is often a great challenge in civil engineering. As a case study, we analyse three different scales of water supply infrastructures for the area of West Mani (Greece), i.e., dam, water ponds, and seawater desalination. We evaluate each case by the capital intensity by performing stochastic simulations of interest rates and identify the optimal solution as the one with the smallest median unit cost, in this case, the water ponds. In order to assess the impact of the development level of a country on the resulting unit cost stochastic properties we apply the optimal solution to various countries with different development levels and IR. We show that IR in the least developed countries, being generally higher and more variable, increases the unit cost, including its variability, which ultimately indicates higher investment risk.

The Togashi Kaneko model (TK model) is a simple stochastic reaction network that displays discreteness-induced transitions between meta-stable patterns. Here we study a constrained Langevin approximation (CLA) of this model. This CLA, derived under the classical scaling, is an obliquely reflected diffusion process on the positive orthant and hence respects the constraint that chemical concentrations are never negative. We show that the CLA is a Feller process, is positive Harris recurrent and converges exponentially fast to the unique stationary distribution. We also characterize the stationary distribution and show that it has finite moments. In addition, we simulate both the TK model and its CLA in various dimensions. For example, we describe how the TK model switches between meta-stable patterns in dimension six. Our simulations suggest that, when the volume of the vessel in which all of the reactions that take place is large, the CLA is a good approximation of the TK model in terms of both the stationary distribution and the transition times between patterns.

Microalgae are multi-purpose microbial agents due to their capability to efficiently sequester carbon dioxide and produce valuable biomass such as protein and single-cell oils. Formulation and tuning of microalgae kinetics models can significantly contribute to the successful design and operation of microalgae reactors. This work aimed to demonstrate the capability of self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm to elucidate the patterns of parameter rankings in microalgae models subject to stochastic variations of input forcing functions–bioprocess influent component concentration levels. These stochastic variations were implemented on a modeled chemostat with a deterministic microalgae kinetic model consists of ten time-dependent variables and eighteen model parameters. The methodology consists of two major stages: (1) global sensitivity analysis (GSA) on the importance of model parameters with stochastic sampling of bioreactor influent component concentrations, and (2) training of self-organizing maps on the datasets of model parameter rankings derived from the GSA indices. Results reveal that functional principal components analysis can project at least 99% of the time-dependent dynamic patterns of the model variables on B-splines basis functions. The component planes for hexagonal lattice SOMs reveal that the sensitivity rankings some parameters in the algae model tested can be stable over a wide range of variations in the levels of influent component concentrations. Therefore, SOM can be used to reveal the trends in multi-dimensional data arrays arising from the implementation of GSA of kinetic models under stochastic perturbation of input forcing functions.

Hydroclimatic processes such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed and dew point are usually considered to be independent of each other. In this study, the cross–correlations between key hydrological-cycle processes are examined, initially by conducting statistical tests, then adding the impact of long-range dependence, which is shown to govern all these processes. Subsequently, an innovative stochastic test that can validate the significance of the cross–correlation among these processes is introduced based on Monte-Carlo simulations. The test works as follows: observations obtained from numerous global-scale timeseries were used for application to, and a comparison of, the traditional methods of validation of statistical significance, such as the t-test, after filtering the data based on length and quality, and then by estimating the cross–correlations on an annual-scale. The proposed method has two main benefits: it negates the need of the pre-whitening data series which could disrupt the stochastic properties of hydroclimatic processes, and indicates tighter limits for upper and lower boundaries of statistical significance when analyzing cross–correlations of processes that exhibit long-range dependence, compared to classical statistical tests. The results of this analysis highlight the need to acquire cross–correlations between processes, which may be significant in the case of long-range dependence behavior.