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Background: In low and middle-income countries, there is growing interest in managing pressures on health services through community interventions for older people. Evidence on the effects of such interventions is scarce. We draw on qualitative data to examine these effects for a specific scheme, Programa Maior Cuidado (PMC) in the Brazilian city of Belo Horizonte., Methods: Building on quantitative findings reported elsewhere, we use qualitative data to develop and test theories of change. These include data from 50 meetings with policymakers, managers and staff in 30 health centres and social assistance posts. Data collection was embedded in key informant interaction and knowledge coproduction. Data include participant and non-participant observation, focus groups and semi-structured interviews with key informants, as well as older people and carers from seven families., Findings: The data reveal three theories of change. Theory 1 is PMC maintains older people's health which reduces their need for inpatient or outpatient care. We find strong evidence to support this, through effects on use of medication, chronic disease management and risk prevention. Theory 2 is PMC promotes timely intervention by anticipating health problems, thus reducing demand for emergency and acute care. We find some evidence for this, but it was limited by limited availability of timely treatment or referral beyond PMC. Theory 3 is PMC facilitates hospital discharge. We find limited evidence for this, reflecting a lack of formal liaison between PMC and hospitals., Interpretation: Schemes like PMC have potential to reduce pressures on health service utilisation by older people, if they are well articulated with wider health services., Funding: Medical Research Council, Newton Fund and Brazilian Council of State Funding Agencies., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interests., (© 2023 The Authors.)

Environmental factors acting on young animals affect neurodevelopmental trajectories and impact adult brain function and behavior. Psychiatric disorders may be caused or worsen by environmental factors, but early interventions can improve performance. Understanding the possible mechanisms acting upon the developing brain could help identify etiological factors of psychiatric disorders and enable advancement of effective therapies. Research has focused on the long-lasting effects of environmental factors acting during the perinatal period, therefore little is known about the impact of these factors at later ages when neurodevelopmental pathologies such as autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are usually diagnosed. Here we show that handling mice during the juvenile period can rescue a range of behavioral and cellular effects of prenatal valproic acid (VPA) exposure. VPA-exposed animals show reduced sociability and increased repetitive behaviors, along with other autism-related endophenotypes such as increased immobility in the forced swim test and increased neuronal activity in the piriform cortex (Pir). Our results demonstrate that briefly handling mice every other day between postnatal days 22 and 34 can largely rescue these phenotypes. This effect can also be observed when animals are analyzed across tests using an "autism" factor, which also discriminates between animals with high and low Pir neuron activity. Thus, we identified a juvenile developmental window when environmental factors can determine adult autism-related behavior. In addition, our results have broader implications on behavioral neuroscience, as they highlight the importance of adequate experimental design and control of behavioral experiments involving treating or testing young animals., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Since 2011, the Brazilian city of Belo Horizonte has been operating an innovative scheme to support care-dependent older people in disadvantaged communities: Programa Maior Cuidado (PMC - Older Person's Care Program). This paper examines two potential associations between inclusion in PMC on types of outpatient health service utilization by dependent older people. The first is that being in PMC is associated with a higher frequency of outpatient visits for physical rehabilitation. The second is that being in PMC is associated with a higher frequency of planned versus unplanned outpatient visits., Methods: We apply a quasi-experimental design to a unique set of health administrative data recording visits to outpatient health services. We focus on comparisons of the universe of visits, transformed to ratios of planned/unplanned visits and rehabilitation/other reasons for visiting the outpatient service. First, we preprocess our sample through different matching techniques such as 'coarsened exact matching' (CEM), 'nearest neighbor' based on logit scores (NN), 'optimal pair' (OP) and 'optimal full' (OF) methods. Second, we estimate marginal effects of being in PMC on our outcomes of interest. We use Poisson regressions controlling for individual and community factors and use robust standard errors. Our results are presented as the comparative incidence ratio of PMC on rehabilitation and planned visits., Results: We find significant positive incidence rates for belonging to PMC for both outcomes of interest under all matching specifications. Poisson models using CEM shows a higher incidence rate for planned visits in comparison to unplanned visits, 1.3 (95% CI 1.1-1.4), by PMC patients compared to the non-PMC controls, and a higher proportion of visits for rehabilitation, 3.4 (95% CI 1.7-6.8). Similar positive results are found across other matching methods and models., Conclusions: Our analysis reveals significant positive associations between older people included in PMC and a matched set of controls for a greater ratio of making outpatient visits that were planned, rather than unplanned. We find similar associations for the proportion of visits made for rehabilitation, as opposed to other reasons. These findings indicate that PMC influences some elements of outpatient health service utilization by dependent older people., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: All-cause excess mortality is a comprehensive measure of the combined direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 on mortality. Estimates are usually derived from Civil Registration and Vital Statistics (CRVS) systems, but these do not include non-registered deaths, which may be affected by changes in vital registration coverage over time., Methods: Our analytical framework and empirical strategy account for registered mortality and under-registration. This provides a better estimate of the actual mortality impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Peru. We use population and crude mortality rate projections from Peru's National Institute of Statistics and Information (INEI, in Spanish), individual-level registered COVID-19 deaths from the Ministry of Health (MoH), and individual-level registered deaths by region and age since 2017 from the National Electronic Deaths Register (SINADEF, in Spanish).We develop a novel framework combining different estimates and using quasi-Poisson models to estimate total excess mortality across regions and age groups. Also, we use logistic mixed-effects models to estimate the coverage of the new SINADEF system., Findings: We estimate that registered mortality underestimates national mortality by 37•1% (95% CI 23% - 48•5%) across 26 regions and nine age groups. We estimate total all-cause excess mortality during the period of analysis at 173,099 (95% CI 153,669 - 187,488) of which 108,943 (95% CI 96,507 - 118,261) were captured by the vital registration system. Deaths at age 60 and over accounted for 74•1% (95% CI 73•9% - 74•7%) of total excess deaths, and there were fewer deaths than expected in younger age groups. Lima region, on the Pacific coast and including the national capital, accounts for the highest share of excess deaths, 87,781 (95% CI 82,294 - 92,504), while in the opposite side regions of Apurimac and Huancavelica account for less than 300 excess deaths., Interpretation: Estimating excess mortality in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) such as Peru must take under-registration of mortality into account. Combining demographic trends with data from administrative registries reduces uncertainty and measurement errors. In countries like Peru, this is likely to produce significantly higher estimates of excess mortality than studies that do not take these effects into account., Funding: None., Competing Interests: RM is a staff member of the Pan American Health Organization. The author alone is responsible for the views expressed in this publication, and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of the Pan American Health Organization. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

The increasing numbers of people at very old ages pose specific policy challenges for health and social care and highlight the need to rethink established models of service provision. The main objective of this paper is to introduce the concept of "avoidable displacement from home" (ADH). The study argues that ADH builds on and adds value to existing concepts, offering a holistic, person-centered framework for integrated health and social care provision for older people. It also demonstrates that this framework can be applied across different levels, ranging from macro policymaking to organizational and individual decision-making. The paper pays attention to the Brazilian context but argues that ADH is a universally applicable concept.

Objectives: To synthesise existing literature on interventions addressing a new concept of avoidable displacement from home for older people with multimorbidity or frailty. The review focused on home-based interventions by any type of multidisciplinary team aimed at reducing avoidable displacement from home to hospital settings. A second objective was to characterise these interventions to inform policy., Design: A systematic search of the main bibliographic databases was conducted to identify studies relating to interventions addressing avoidable displacement from home for older people. Studies focusing on one specific condition or interventions without multidisciplinary teams were excluded. A narrative synthesis of data was conducted, and themes were identified by using an adapted thematic framework analysis approach., Results: The search strategy was performed using the following electronic databases: the American National Library of Medicine and the National Institutes of Health (PubMed), Scopus, Cochrane Library (Central and CDRS), CINAHL, Social Care Online, Web of Science as well as the database of the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature. The database search was done in September 2018 and completed in October 2018. Overall 3927 articles were identified and 364 were retained for full text screening. Fifteen studies were included in the narrative review. Four themes were identified and discussed: (1) types of interventions, (2) composition of teams, (3) intervention effectiveness and (4) types of outcomes. Within intervention types, three categories of care types were identified; transitional care, case-management services and hospital at home. Each individual article was assessed in terms of risk of bias following Cochrane Collaboration guidelines., Conclusions: The review identified some potential interventions and relevant topics to be addressed in order to develop effective and sustainable interventions to reduce the avoidable displacement from home of older people. However the review was not able to identify robust impact evidence, either in terms of quantity or quality from the studies presented. As such, the available evidence is not sufficiently robust to inform policy or interventions for reducing avoidable displacement from home. This finding reflects the complexity of these interventions and a lack of systematic data collection., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42018108116., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)