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Considering the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of sea-level-change time series, this study focuses on enhancing the predictive accuracy of sea level change. The adjacent seas of China are selected as the research area, and the study integrates singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to establish an SSA-LSTM hybrid model for predicting sea level change based on sea level anomaly datasets from 1993 to 2021. Comparative analyses are conducted between the SSA-LSTM hybrid model and singular LSTM neural network model, as well as (empirical mode decomposition) EMD-LSTM and (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise) CEEMDAN-LSTM hybrid models. Evaluation metrics, including the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), are employed for the accuracy assessment. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in prediction accuracy using the SSA-LSTM hybrid model, with an RMSE of 5.26 mm, MAE of 4.27 mm, and R2 of 0.98, all surpassing those of the other models. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the SSA-LSTM hybrid model can more accurately predict sea level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constitutive laws are a necessary ingredient in calculations of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) or other surface loading problems (e.g. loading by ocean tides). An idealized constitutive law governed by the Maxwell viscoelastic model is widely used but increasing attention is being directed towards more intricate constitutive laws that, in particular, include transient rheology. In this context, transient rheology collectively refers to dissipative mechanisms activated in addition to creep modelled by the Maxwell viscoelastic model. Consideration of such viscoelastic models in GIA is in its infancy and to encourage their wider use, we present constitutive laws for several experimentally derived transient rheologies and outline a flexible method in which to incorporate them into geophysical problems, such as the viscoelastic deformation of the Earth induced by surface loading. To further motivate this need, we demonstrate, via the Love number collocation method, how predictions of crustal displacement depart significantly between Earth models that adopt only Maxwell viscoelasticity and those with transient rheology. Throughout this paper, we highlight the differences in terminology and emphases between the rock mechanics, seismology and GIA communities, which have perhaps contributed towards the relative scarcity in integrating this broader and more realistic class of constitutive laws within GIA. We focus on transient rheology since the associated deformation has been demonstrated to operate on timescales that range from hours to decades. With ice mass loss enhanced at similar timescales as a consequence of anthropogenically caused climate change, the ability to model GIA with more accurate constitutive laws is an important tool to investigate such problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possibility of a transient rheological response to ice age loading, first discussed in the literature of the 1980s, has received renewed attention. Transient behaviour across centennial to millennial timescales has been invoked to reconcile apparently contradictory inferences of steady-state (Maxwell) viscosity based on two distinct data sets from Greenland: Holocene sea-level curves and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) derived modern crustal uplift data. To revisit this issue, we first compute depth-dependent Fréchet kernels using 1-D Maxwell viscoelastic Earth models and demonstrate that the mantle resolving power of the two Greenland data sets is highly distinct, reflecting the differing spatial scale of the associated surface loading: the sea-level records are sensitive to viscosity structure across the entire upper mantle while uplift rates associated with post-1000 CE fluctuations of the Greenland Ice Sheet have a dominant sensitivity to shallow asthenosphere viscosity. Guided by these results, we present forward models which demonstrate that a moderate low viscosity zone beneath the lithosphere in Maxwell Earth models provides a simple route to simultaneously reconciling both data sets by significantly increasing predictions of present-day uplift rates in Greenland whilst having negligible impact on predictions of Holocene relative sea-level curves from the region. Our analysis does not rule out the possibility of transient deformation, but it suggests that it is not required to simultaneously explain these two data sets. A definitive demonstration of transient behaviour requires that one account for the resolving power of the data sets in modelling the glacial isostatic adjustment process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The expected acceleration in sea level rise (SLR) throughout this century poses significant threats to coastal cities and low-lying regions. Since the early 1990s, high-precision multi-mission satellite altimetry (SA) has enabled the routine measurement of sea levels, providing a continuous 30-year record from which the mean sea level rise (global and regional) and its variability can be computed. The latest reprocessed product from CMEMS span the period from 1993 to 2020, and have enabled the acquisition of accurate sea level data within the coastal range of 0–20 km. In order to fully utilize this new dataset, we establish a global virtual network consisting of 184 virtual SA stations. We evaluate the impact of different stochastic noises on the estimation of the velocity of the sea surface height (SSH) time series using BIC_tp information criterion. In the second step, the principal component analysis (PCA) allows the common mode noise in the SSH time series to be mitigated. Finally, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and accuracy of sea level change derived from SA. Our results suggest that the stochasticity of the SSH time series is not well described by a combination of random, flicker, and white noise, but is best described by an ARFIM/ARMA/GGM process. After removing the common mode noise with PCA, about 96.7% of the times series' RMS decreased, and most of the uncertainty associated with the computed SLR decreased. We confirm that the spatiotemporal correlations should be accounted for to yield trustworthy trends and reliable uncertainties. Our estimated SLR is 2.75 ± 0.89 mm/yr, which aligns closely with recent studies, emphasizing the robustness and consistency of our method using virtual SA stations. We additionally introduce open-source software (SA_Tool V1.0) to process the SA data and reduce noise in surface height time series to the community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level change, a consequence of climate change, poses a global threat with escalating impacts on coastal regions. Since 1880, global mean sea level has risen by 8–9 inches (21–24 cm), reaching a record high in 2021. Projections by NOAA suggest an additional 10–12-inch increase by 2050. This paper explores research methodologies for studying sea level change, focusing on Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques. GIS has become a powerful tool in sea level change research, allowing the integration of spatial data, coastal process modeling, and impact assessment. This paper sets the link with sustainability and reviews key factors influencing sea level change, such as thermal expansion and ice-mass loss, and examines how GIS is applied. It also highlights the importance of using different scenarios, like Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), for accurate predictions. The paper discusses data sources, index variables like the Coastal Vulnerability Index, and GIS solutions for modeling sea level rise impacts. By synthesizing findings from previous research, it contributes to a better understanding of GIS methodologies in sea level change studies. This knowledge aids policymakers and researchers in developing strategies to address sea level change challenges and enhance coastal resilience. Furthermore, global analysis highlights the pivotal roles of the United States and China in sea level change (SLC) and GIS research. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) region, rising temperatures have substantial impacts on local sea levels and extreme weather events, particularly affecting vulnerable coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The northeastern Sunda Strait is a narrow strait separating Java and Sumatra islands. Currently, it forms a seaway between the Java Sea and the Indian Ocean. The geological setting of the region is extremely dynamic, but how the Plio-Pleistocene interplay between sea level oscillations, magmatism, and tectonics, which lead to the current setting, has not been completely understood. We analysed an important set of legacy shallow seismic data from this area to decipher these intricate relationships. Our results indicate that the tectonic extension partly dismantled the Indonesian arc since the Middle Miocene. However, volcanic products formed a barrier between the Sunda Shelf and the Indian Ocean during the Late Pliocene to the Middle Pleistocene. Marine flooding started during the Middle Pleistocene but bypassed the barrier by flooding the NW edge of Java Island. During the Late Pleistocene, high amplitudes and longer periods of the glacial-interglacial cycles ultimately connected the Java Sea with the Indian Ocean. Still, it was only during the Holocene that important erosion made this seaway efficient in transporting seawater between the two reservoirs.

Relic coastal landforms (fossil corals, cemented intertidal deposits, or erosive features carved onto rock coasts) serve as sea‐level index points (SLIPs), that are widely used to reconstruct past sea‐level changes. Traditional SLIP‐based sea‐level reconstructions face challenges in capturing continuous sea‐level variability and dating erosional SLIPs, such as tidal notches. Here, we propose a novel approach to such challenges. We use a numerical model of cliff erosion embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the most likely sea‐level scenarios responsible for shaping one of the best‐preserved tidal notches of Last Interglacial age in Sardinia, Italy. Results align with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model predictions, indicating that synchronized or out‐of‐sync ice‐volume shifts in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets can reproduce the notch morphology, with sea level confidently peaking at 6 m and only under a higher than present erosion regime. This new approach yields insight into sea‐level trends during the Last Interglacial. Plain Language Summary: Scientists typically investigate the position of sea level in geological time using the elevation, age, and characteristics of fossil marine organisms living in shallow water (e.g., coral reefs), beach deposits, or erosional features that were formed near the sea level. However, these indicators offer only fragmented, if not only point‐like information in time and not a continuous sea‐level record. To overcome this issue, we use a numerical model that reconstructs the shape of tidal notches (i.e., indentations created close to sea level in carbonate cliffs). We compare model‐generated notch shapes with the real shape of the tidal notch, and we produce a set of continuous sea‐level histories that are more likely to have produced one of the best‐preserved fossil tidal notches in the Orosei Gulf, Sardinia, Italy, carved during the Last Interglacial highstand, 125.000 years ago. Our findings suggest that whether the ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland melted at the same time or separately, both scenarios could reproduce the actual shape of the tidal notch we observe at present. Our findings indicate that the erosion rate during that period was higher than present and the sea level is very likely to have reached up to 6 m. Key Points: Cliff erosion modeling and Monte Carlo analysis indicate tidal notch geometry can offer a continuous record of past sea level variabilityThe geometry of Orosei's tidal notch, Italy can be replicated through simultaneous or asynchronous Antarctic–Greenland ice melting scenariosThe morphology of the Last Interglacial notch is more efficiently replicated using higher‐than‐present erosion rates and a 6 m sea‐level peak [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is crucial to assess the nodal modulation for tides in high-latitude coast areas within the context of global warming. In this paper, five stations (Maloy, Rorvik, Andenes, Vardo, and Honningsvag) along the Norwegian coast are selected to analyze the nodal modulation using the S_TIDE toolbox, which is developed from the enhanced harmonic analysis method. Three criterions are proposed to determine the optimal number of independent points (IPs), a parameter in S_TIDE toolbox, and the decision steps are elaborated in detail. The optimal number of IPs is evaluated by comparing the primary and the hindcasts tidal amplitudes. The amplitudes of 18.61-year cycle and 4.42-year cycle show noticeable temporal and spatial variations, which can be attributed to the changes of sea levels, local topography, and the active and robust mesoscale activity in the Norwegian Sea. Moreover, the temporal and spatial variations in nodal modulation are quantitatively demonstrated at the Rorvik and Vardo stations, highlighting the importance of nodal modulation in assessing tides over interdecadal periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fossil corals are commonly used to reconstruct Last Interglacial (∼125 ka, LIG) sea level. Sea level reconstructions assume the water depth at which the coral lived, called the 'relative water depth'. However, relative water depth varies in time and space due to coral reef growth in response to relative sea level (RSL) changes. RSL changes can also erode coral reefs, exposing older reef surfaces with different relative water depths. We use a simplified numerical model of coral evolution to investigate how sea level history systematically influences the preservation of corals in the Bahamas and western Australia, regions which house >100 LIG coral fossils. We construct global ice histories spanning the uncertainty of LIG global mean sea level (GMSL) and predict RSL with a glacial isostatic adjustment model. We then simulate coral evolution since 132 ka. We show that preserved elevations and relative water depths of modelled LIG corals are sensitive to the magnitude, timing and number of GMSL highstand(s). In our simulations, the influence of coral growth and erosion (i.e. the 'growth effect') can have an impact on RSL reconstructions that is comparable to glacial isostatic adjustment. Thus, without explicitly accounting for the growth effect, additional uncertainty is introduced into sea level reconstructions. Our results suggest the growth effect is most pronounced in western Australia due to Holocene erosion, but also plays a role in the Bahamas, where LIG RSL rose rapidly due to the collapsing peripheral bulge associated with Laurentide Ice Sheet retreat. Despite the coral model's simplicity, our study highlights the utility of process-based RSL reconstructions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A key initial step in geophysical imaging is to devise an effective means of mapping the sensitivity of an observation to the model parameters, that is to compute its Fréchet derivatives or sensitivity kernel. In the absence of any simplifying assumptions and when faced with a large number of free parameters, the adjoint method can be an effective and efficient approach to calculating Fréchet derivatives and requires just two numerical simulations. In the Glacial Isostatic Adjustment problem, these consist of a forward simulation driven by changes in ice mass and an adjoint simulation driven by fictitious loads that are applied at the observation sites. The theoretical basis for this approach has seen considerable development over the last decade. Here, we present the final elements needed to image 3-D mantle viscosity using a dataset of palaeo sea-level observations. Developments include the calculation of viscosity Fréchet derivatives (i.e. sensitivity kernels) for relative sea-level observations, a modification to the numerical implementation of the forward and adjoint problem that permits application to 3-D viscosity structure, and a recalibration of initial sea level that ensures the forward simulation honours present-day topography. In the process of addressing these items, we build intuition concerning how absolute sea-level and relative sea-level observations sense Earth's viscosity structure and the physical processes involved. We discuss examples for potential observations located in the near field (Andenes, Norway), far field (Seychelles), and edge of the forebulge of the Laurentide ice sheet (Barbados). Examination of these kernels: (1) reveals why 1-D estimates of mantle viscosity from far-field relative sea-level observations can be biased; (2) hints at why an appropriate differential relative sea-level observation can provide a better constraint on local mantle viscosity and (3) demonstrates that sea-level observations have non-negligible 3-D sensitivity to deep mantle viscosity structure, which is counter to the intuition gained from 1-D radial viscosity Fréchet derivatives. Finally, we explore the influence of lateral variations in viscosity on relative sea-level observations in the Amundsen Sea Embayment and at Barbados. These predictions are based on a new global 3-D viscosity inference derived from the shear-wave speeds of GLAD-M25 and an inverse calibration scheme that ensures compatibility with certain fundamental geophysical observations. Use of the 3-D viscosity inference leads to: (1) generally greater complexity within the kernel; (2) an increase in sensitivity and presence of shorter length-scale features within lower viscosity regions; (3) a zeroing out of the sensitivity kernel within high-viscosity regions where elastic deformation dominates and (4) shifting of sensitivity at a given depth towards distal regions of weaker viscosity. The tools and intuition built here provide the necessary framework to explore inversions for 3-D mantle viscosity based on palaeo sea-level data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reciprocity theorems are established for the elastic sea level fingerprint problem including rotational feedbacks. In their simplest form, these results show that the sea level change at a location x due to melting a unit point mass of ice at x ′ is equal to the sea level change at x ′ due to melting a unit point mass of ice at x. This identity holds irrespective of the shoreline geometry or of lateral variations in elastic Earth structure. Using the reciprocity theorems, sensitivity kernels for sea level and related observables with respect to the ice load can be readily derived. It is notable that calculation of the sensitivity kernels is possible using standard fingerprint codes, though for some types of observable a slight generalization to the fingerprint problem must be considered. These results are of use within coastal hazard assessment and have a range of applications within studies of modern-day sea level change. To illustrate the latter point, we use sensitivity kernels to investigate two widely used methods for estimating, respectively, ice sheet mass loss from satellite gravity, and rates of global mean sea level rise from satellite altimetry. Though our analysis is idealized in some respects, we identify systematic errors of order 5 per cent due to the use of simplified sea level physics. Crucially, calculation of the relevant sensitivity kernels provides not only a means for understanding sources of bias in existing methods, but will aid in the design of new and improved data-assimilation techniques. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of sea-level-change time series, this study focuses on enhancing the predictive accuracy of sea level change. The adjacent seas of China are selected as the research area, and the study integrates singular spectrum analysis (SSA) with long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks to establish an SSA-LSTM hybrid model for predicting sea level change based on sea level anomaly datasets from 1993 to 2021. Comparative analyses are conducted between the SSA-LSTM hybrid model and singular LSTM neural network model, as well as (empirical mode decomposition) EMD-LSTM and (Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise) CEEMDAN-LSTM hybrid models. Evaluation metrics, including the root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (R2), are employed for the accuracy assessment. The results demonstrate a significant improvement in prediction accuracy using the SSA-LSTM hybrid model, with an RMSE of 5.26 mm, MAE of 4.27 mm, and R2 of 0.98, all surpassing those of the other models. Therefore, it is reasonable to conclude that the SSA-LSTM hybrid model can more accurately predict sea level change.

The climate response of tropical Southeast Asia to abrupt climate change originating from high northern latitudes remains poorly understood. Here, marine sediments recovered from the Northwest Borneo Trough are analyzed to trace variations in terrigenous material composition associated with sea level and palaeoflood activities over the past 40 ka. We describe for the first time the influence of sea level change on terrigenous deposition from a tropical island with small mountainous rivers surrounded by narrow continental shelves and the coupling between North Atlantic dynamics and climate feedbacks in tropical Southeast Asia during the Dansgaard‐Oeschger stadials. This study demonstrates that climate oscillations occurring at high northern latitudes can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia through the functions of sea level, the East Asian winter monsoon and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Such information is fundamental to correctly assessing future sea level rise and flood risks in tropical Southeast Asia. Plain Language Summary: Sea level rise and extreme climate events are two global climate issues currently faced by humanity under the background of global warming. However, the climate feedbacks in tropical Southeast Asia remain unknown, although portions of this region are now densely populated. Here, a gravity core retrieved from the Northwest (NW) Borneo Trough is employed to reveal variations in terrigenous material composition and their controlling factors over the past 40 ka. We found that the terrigenous sediments delivered to the NW Borneo Trough are primarily sourced from NW Borneo, and their deposition is mainly controlled by sea level change and flooding. Further in‐depth analysis reveals that northern high‐latitude cooling could cause floods in NW Borneo both in the modern and during the past by influencing the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) and/or the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Furthermore, our new records suggest that a stronger EAWM during cold stadials could have transported high levels of northerly moisture to NW Borneo, resulting in relatively higher speleothem δ18O values in NW Borneo. In short, abrupt climate changes in the high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia through the functions of sea level, the EAWM and the ITCZ. Key Points: Sea level change and flooding are the main controlling factors for terrigenous deposition from tropical Southeast AsiaNorthern high‐latitude cooling could lead to the outbreak of floods in Northwest Borneo via atmospheric teleconnectionClimate oscillations occurring at high northern latitudes can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates long‐term sea level changes in the South China Sea (SCS) using a validated high‐resolution regional ocean model simulation for the Maritime Continent. The contributions of ocean mass redistribution and steric sea level are examined to understand the sea level variations. The ocean bottom pressure (OBP) serves as an indicator of sea level variations linked to alterations in ocean mass flux. The OBP accounts for over 80% of the total sea level change over the shelves, while the steric sea level emerges as the dominant factor, contributing over 50% to the sea level change in the deep SCS. Luzon Strait transport shows a weakening trend in the last six decades, resulting in higher heat accumulation and larger steric expansion in the deep SCS. The ocean mass redistribution acts as a mechanism to balance the contrasting steric induced sea level changes over the deep SCS and shallow continental shelves. Plain Language Summary: The South China Sea (SCS) has vast continental shelves covering more than half of its surface area. The study investigates long‐term sea level changes in the SCS using an ocean general circulation model simulation, considering steric sea level (water expansion due to temperature and salinity changes) and ocean mass redistribution. The analysis showed a significant increase in steric sea level in the deep SCS, while the contribution of ocean mass redistribution decreased. The mass redistribution was responsible for over 80% of the total sea level change, except in the deep SCS, where steric sea level dominated. Weakened flow from the Pacific Ocean to the SCS led to more heat accumulation and higher steric expansion in the deep SCS, causing water to redistribute toward the shelves. Key Points: About 80% of the sea level changes over the South China Sea (SCS) shelves are attributed to the redistribution of ocean mass from deeper regionsThe SCS throughflow has exhibited a weakening trend over the past six decadesSteric sea level changes, driven by fluctuations in Luzon Strait transport, dominate long‐term sea level variations in the SCS [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica is called a natural laboratory and is highly important for investigating climate change and its evolution over time. Sustainability is a critical concern due to the challenges posed by glacier melting and rising sea levels due to global warming. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, since the industrial age, the global mean sea level has risen by about 20 cm as a result of the increase in the average world temperature by 1 °C. Therefore, long-term observations by satellite-based techniques in and around Antarctica are of great importance for monitoring the impacts of climate change. In the last two decades, the Earth has been monitored by satellite-based remote sensing systems with high temporal and spatial resolution. Nowadays, Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals are increasingly being used in climate change studies. In this context, Türkiye's first GNSS stations were successfully installed during the fourth Turkish Antarctic Expedition (TAE-IV) on Horseshoe Island, Antarctica, within the scope of a project by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TÜBİTAK) titled "Monitoring the troposphere and snow depth/thickness in the Antarctic region with GNSS meteorology and GNSS-reflectometer methods". These stations have been monitoring atmospheric water vapor and changes in snow/sea levels since February 24th, 2020. In this study, one of the permanent GNSS Station (TUR1) signals was analyzed using GNSS-reflectometry (GNSS-R) in order to monitor the sea level changes on Horseshoe Island. Sea level changes of around 1 m in this region, due to the tidal effect, were observed using GNSS-R and compared with ultrasonic distance measurement sensor results for validation. The first results for monitoring sea levels obtained from the TUR1 GNSS Station demonstrated that sea levels in the region can be monitored using GNSS-R with an accuracy of 3-4 cm and correlation of 0.91. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass redistribution in the Earth system induce variations of the Earth's gravity field. Now, the time-varying gravity models from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission can only estimate the large-scale gravity changes, so the high-resolution marine gravity trend (MGT) model is urgently required to detect small-scale Earth's mass migration. The sea level change is a significant response to marine gravity field change. Here, we propose to estimate the high-resolution MGT using the sea level trend (SLT). Firstly, the SLT model caused by marine mass change (MMC) on 5′ × 5′ grids covering the Bay of Bengal (BOB) is established based on multisatellite altimetry data and EN4 quality-controlled ocean data, named BOB_MMC_SLT. Then, the marine mass trend (MMT) is calculated using the BOB_MMC_SLT. The spherical harmonic function (SHF) method is applied to estimate MGT using the MMT, and this MGT model on 5′ × 5′ grids, named BOB_SHF_MGT, is used to study marine gravity changes and their associated geophysical processes. The results show that, the MGT mean of BOB_SHF_MGT is about 0.14 μGal yr−1, which indicates that marine gravity in BOB is rising. The earthquakes mainly occur in the southeastern BOB where MGT is obviously rising, which may be related to the increased density of the Burma Plate due to the subduction of the India Plate and the Australia Plate. BOB_SHF_MGT shows that the marine gravity rise rate is increasing from the 85°E ridge to Andaman–Nicobar ridge, with a maximum at the location where the India Plate subducts to the Burma Plate. The MGT model based on altimetry data constructed by SHF method is important for the study of small-scale mass migration near the subduction boundaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in sea level exhibit nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and multivariable characteristics, making traditional time series forecasting methods less effective in producing satisfactory results. To enhance the accuracy of sea level change predictions, this study introduced an improved variational mode decomposition and ensemble empirical mode decomposition–long short-term memory hybrid model (VMD–EEMD–LSTM). This model decomposes satellite altimetry data from near the Dutch coast using VMD, resulting in components of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with various frequencies, along with a residual sequence. EEMD further dissects the residual sequence obtained from VMD into second-order components. These IMFs decomposed by VMD and EEMD are utilized as features in the LSTM model for making predictions, culminating in the final forecasted results. The experimental results, obtained through a comparative analysis of six sets of Dutch coastal sea surface height data, confirm the excellent accuracy of the hybrid model proposed (root mean square error (RMSE) = 47.2 mm, mean absolute error (MAE) = 33.3 mm, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.9). Compared to the VMD-LSTM model, the average decrease in RMSE was 58.7%, the average reduction in MAE was 60.0%, and the average increase in R2 was 49.9%. In comparison to the EEMD-LSTM model, the average decrease in RMSE was 27.0%, the average decrease in MAE was 28.0%, and the average increase in R2 was 6.5%. The VMD–EEMD–LSTM model exhibited significantly improved predictive performance. The model proposed in this study demonstrates a notable enhancement in global mean sea lever (GMSL) forecasting accuracy during testing along the Dutch coast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study utilizes 27 years of sea level anomaly (SLA) data obtained from satellite altimetry to investigate spatial–temporal variations in the South China Sea (SCS). The local mean decomposition (LMD) method is applied to decompose the sea level data into three components: high-frequency, low-frequency, and trend components. By removing the influence of high-frequency components, multiple time series of regular sea level changes with significant physical significance are obtained. The results indicate that the average multi-year SLA is 50.16 mm, with a linear trend of 3.91 ± 0.12 mm/a. The wavelet analysis method was employed to examine the significant annual and 1.5-year periodic signals in the SCS SLA series. At the seasonal scale, the sea level rise in coastal areas during autumn and winter surpasses that of spring and summer. Moreover, there are generally opposing spatial distributions between spring and autumn, as well as between summer and winter. The linear trends in multi-year SLA for the four seasons are 3.70 ± 0.13 mm/a, 3.66 ± 0.16 mm/a, 3.49 ± 0.16 mm/a, and 3.74 ± 0.33 mm/a, respectively. The causes of SCS sea level change are examined in relation to phenomena such as monsoons, the Kuroshio Current, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of SCS SLA, the contributions of the first three modes of variance are determined to be 34.09%, 28.84%, and 8.40%, respectively. The temporal coefficients and spatial distribution characteristics of these modes confirm their associations with ENSO, monsoons, and the double-gyre structure of SCS sea surface temperature. For instance, ENSO impacts SCS sea level change through atmospheric circulation, predominantly affecting the region between 116° E and 120° E longitude, and 14° N and 20° N latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Jurassic strata in the ST gas field of the northern West Siberia Basin have been regarded as a potential exploration target with undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. However limited research has been performed on the sequence stratigraphy of the Jurassic strata, as well as its sandstone distribution controlled by variable sea level change and sediment input. In this paper, four third-order sequences (SQ1, SQ2, SQ3, and SQ4) and nine fourth-order sequences for the Jurassic strata are interpreted based on seismic facies analysis and the lithology stacking patterns of seven wells. SQ1 is characterized by the special Bazhenov Formation which is featured by regionally distributed deep marine shales. SQ2 (J1) is composed of a coarsening upward sequence, the base of which is an unconformable surface that can be recognizable in both seismic profiles and well logging data. SQ3 (J2-J8) is composed of a complete fining-upward and coarsening-upward sequence, showing a series of transgressive and regressive successions. A complete SQ4 has not been drilled through by all the seven wells, only showing a coarsening upward succession on its top (J9) which evolves into a fining upward succession at the base of SQ3. Combined with the seismic inversion result, which predicts sandstone distribution, a sequence evolution model was built for SQ3 showing a full unit of transgressive system tract and highstand system tract (TST-HST) which often occurs in shallow marine shelves. During sequence development, most reservoir sandstones are deposited in the shelf and tidal delta environment at the bottom of the TST and the top of HST, and mudstones are deposited as shelf mudstones, especially at maximum flooding surface. That is controlled by both accommodation and sediment input. Generally, under this sequence framework, the depositional architecture can be further analyzed with implications for source rock, reservoir sandstones, and sealing rock, which may guide future gas exploration and exploitation in this area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We report radiocarbon dates obtained from on-shore marine and near-shore terrestrial deposits near Yzerfontein, on the West Coast of South Africa. These deposits include Late Pleistocene shell concretions from the southern end of 16 Mile Beach and a marine shell deposit inland of the coastal Rooipan (Red Pan); mid-Holocene coastal pan deposits exposed by modern storm erosion of the sandy 16 Mile Beach; and four Holocene storm beach deposits on a rocky shore to the south. We interpret the results in terms of local geomorphology constraints on sea-level fluctuations. The eastern margin of Rooipan is a >40 ka elevated beach deposit in a dune cordon that separates it from the adjacent Yzerfonteinpan. Both pans have gypsum deposits up to 2 m thick formed by repeated marine overwash. Saline pan deposits that are exposed intermittently on the beach are mid-Holocene and indicate a former westward extension of Rooipan. This is in contrast to storm beaches dating 8000–2600 cal BP at higher elevations on a rocky platform further south. This suggests that a dune barrier existed seaward of the present shoreline near Rooipan at this time. The coastal changes described here show that deposition and erosion can be affected significantly by the local palaeogeomorphology and cannot be ascribed solely to sea-level change. Significance: Mollusc shells from Yzerfontein, Western Cape Province, South Africa, show radiocarbon ages ranging from >40 000 years to a few decades before present. There is evidence for elevated sea levels between 8000 and 2600 years ago, and sea levels similar to the present in the last 2000 years. Neither the elevation of the deposits nor their ages conform to published sea-level change curves for the Western Cape coast. Inundation by rising sea levels in the Holocene was not spatially uniform. Former and present geomorphology have had a significant effect on deposition and preservation of indicators of sea-level change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For more than a decade, GRACE data have provided global mass redistribution measurements due to water cycles, climate change and giant earthquake events. Large earthquakes can yield gravity changes over thousands of kilometres from the epicentre for years to decades, and those solid Earth deformation signals can introduce significant biases in the estimate of regional-scale water and ice mass changes around the epicentres. We suggest a modelling scheme to understand their contribution to the estimates of water and ice mass changes and to remove the earthquake-related solid mass signals from GRACE data. This approach is composed of physics-based earthquake modelling, GRACE data correction and high-resolution surface mass change recovery. In this study, we examined the case of the 2011 Tohoku–Oki earthquake to better estimate the regional sea level and hydrological mass changes in the East Asia. The co- and post-seismic changes from GRACE observations were used to constrain the earthquake model parameters to obtain optimal self-consistent models for the earthquake source and the asthenosphere rheology. The result demonstrated that our earthquake correction model significantly reduced the mass change signals by solid Earth deformation from the time-series of regional surface mass changes on both land and oceans. For example, the apparent climate-related ocean mass increase over the East Sea was 1.59 ± 0.11 mm yr−1 for 2003–2016, significantly lower than the global mean ocean mass trend (2.04 ± 0.10 mm yr−1) due to contamination of the earthquake signals. After accounting for the solid mass changes by the earthquake, the estimate was revised to 1.87 ± 0.11 mm yr−1, that is increased by 20 per cent and insignificantly different from the global estimate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tide gauge (TG) data are crucial for assessing global sea-level and climate changes, coastal subsidence and inundation. Mean sea-level (MSL) time-series derived from TG data are autocorrelated. The conventional ordinary least-squares regression method provides reasonable estimates of relative sea-level (RSL) change rates (linear trends) but underestimates their uncertainties. In order to cope with the autocorrelation issue, we propose an approach that uses an 'effective sample size' (⁠|${N}_{\mathrm{ eff}}$|⁠) to estimate the uncertainties (±95 per cent confidence interval, or 95 per cent CI for short). The method involves decomposing the monthly MSL time-series into three components: a linear trend, a periodic component and a noise time-series. The |${N}_{\mathrm{ eff}}$| is calculated according to the autocorrelation function (ACF) of the noise time-series. We present an empirical model that fits an inverse power-law relationship between 95 per cent CI and time span (T) based on 1160 TG data sets globally distributed, where |$95\ \mathrm{ per}\ \mathrm{ cent}\,\mathrm{ CI} = 179.8{T}^{ - 1.29}$|⁠. This model provides a valuable tool for projecting the optimal observational time span needed for the desired uncertainty in sea-level rise rate or coastal subsidence rate from TG data. It suggests that a 20-yr TG time-series may result in a 3–5 mm yr−1 uncertainty (95 per cent CI) for the RSL change rate, while a 30-yr data set may achieve about 2 mm yr−1 uncertainty. To achieve a submillimetre per year (< 1 mm yr−1) uncertainty, approximately 60 yr of TG observations are needed. We also present a Python module (TG_Rate_95CI.py) for implementing the methodology. The Python module and the empirical model have broad applications in global sea-level rise and climate change studies, and coastal environmental and infrastructure planning, as well as Earth science education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A large ensemble of ice sheet projections to the end of the 21st century have been compiled within community-based initiatives. These ensembles allow for assessment of uncertainties in projections associated with climate forcing and a wide range of parameters governing ice sheet and shelf dynamics, including ice-ocean interactions. Herein, we compute geographically variable sea level 'fingerprints' associated with ∼320 simulations of polar ice sheet projections included in the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 and ∼180 projections of glacier mass changes from the Glacier Model Intercomparison Project. We find a strong correlation (coefficient > 0.97) between all fingerprints of Greenland Ice Sheet projections when considering a global region outside the near field of the ice sheet. Consistency in the fingerprints for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) projections is much weaker, though correlation coefficients > 0.80 were found for all projections with global mean sea level (GMSL) greater than 10 cm. The far-field variability in the fingerprints associated with the AIS is due in large part to the sea level change driven by Earth rotation changes. The size and position of the AIS on the south pole makes the rotational component of the sea level fingerprint highly sensitive to the geometry of the ice mass flux, a geometry that becomes more consistent as the GMSL associated with the ice sheet projection increases. Finally, the fingerprints of glacier mass flux show an intermediate level of consistency, with contributions from Antarctic glaciers being the primary driver of decorrelation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass loss from polar ice sheets is becoming the dominant contributor to current sea level changes, as well as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in sea level projections. The spatial pattern of sea level change is sensitive to the geometry of ice sheet mass changes, and local sea level changes can deviate from the global mean sea level change due to gravitational, Earth rotational and deformational (GRD) effects. The pattern of GRD sea level change associated with the melting of an ice sheet is often considered to remain relatively constant in time outside the vicinity of the ice sheet. For example, in the sea level projections from the most recent IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6), the geometry of ice sheet mass loss was treated as constant during the 21st century. However, ice sheet simulations predict that the geometry of ice mass changes across a given ice sheet and the relative mass loss from each ice sheet will vary during the coming century, producing patters of global sea level changes that are spatiotemporally variable. We adopt a sea level model that includes GRD effects and shoreline migration to calculate time-varying sea level patterns associated with projections of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the coming century. We find that in some cases, sea level changes can be substantially amplified above the global mean early in the century, with this amplification diminishing by 2100. We explain these differences by calculating the contributions of Earth rotation as well as gravitational and deformational effects to the projected sea level changes separately. We find in one case, for example, that ice gain on the Antarctic Peninsula can cause an amplification of up to 2.9 times the global mean sea level equivalent along South American coastlines due to positive interference of GRD effects. To explore the uncertainty introduced by differences in predicted ice mass geometry, we predict the sea level changes following end-member mass loss scenarios for various regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the ISMIP6 model ensemblely, and find that sea level amplification above the global mean sea level equivalent differ by up to 1.9 times between different ice mass projections along global coastlines outside of Greenland and Antarctica. This work suggests that assessments of future sea level hazard should consider not only the integrated mass changes of ice sheets, but also temporal variations in the geometry of the ice mass changes across the ice sheets. As well, this study highlights the importance of constraining the relative timing of ice mass changes between the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Relic coastal landforms (fossil corals, cemented intertidal deposits, or erosive features carved onto rock coasts) serve as sea‐level index points (SLIPs), that are widely used to reconstruct past sea‐level changes. Traditional SLIP‐based sea‐level reconstructions face challenges in capturing continuous sea‐level variability and dating erosional SLIPs, such as tidal notches. Here, we propose a novel approach to such challenges. We use a numerical model of cliff erosion embedded within a Monte Carlo simulation to investigate the most likely sea‐level scenarios responsible for shaping one of the best‐preserved tidal notches of Last Interglacial age in Sardinia, Italy. Results align with Glacial Isostatic Adjustment model predictions, indicating that synchronized or out‐of‐sync ice‐volume shifts in Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets can reproduce the notch morphology, with sea level confidently peaking at 6 m and only under a higher than present erosion regime. This new approach yields insight into sea‐level trends during the Last Interglacial.

It is crucial to assess the nodal modulation for tides in high-latitude coast areas within the context of global warming. In this paper, five stations (Maloy, Rorvik, Andenes, Vardo, and Honningsvag) along the Norwegian coast are selected to analyze the nodal modulation using the S_TIDE toolbox, which is developed from the enhanced harmonic analysis method. Three criterions are proposed to determine the optimal number of independent points (IPs), a parameter in S_TIDE toolbox, and the decision steps are elaborated in detail. The optimal number of IPs is evaluated by comparing the primary and the hindcasts tidal amplitudes. The amplitudes of 18.61-year cycle and 4.42-year cycle show noticeable temporal and spatial variations, which can be attributed to the changes of sea levels, local topography, and the active and robust mesoscale activity in the Norwegian Sea. Moreover, the temporal and spatial variations in nodal modulation are quantitatively demonstrated at the Rorvik and Vardo stations, highlighting the importance of nodal modulation in assessing tides over interdecadal periods.

The expected acceleration in sea level rise (SLR) throughout this century poses significant threats to coastal cities and low-lying regions. Since the early 1990s, high-precision multi-mission satellite altimetry (SA) has enabled the routine measurement of sea levels, providing a continuous 30-year record from which the mean sea level rise (global and regional) and its variability can be computed. The latest reprocessed product from CMEMS span the period from 1993 to 2020, and have enabled the acquisition of accurate sea level data within the coastal range of 0–20 km. In order to fully utilize this new dataset, we establish a global virtual network consisting of 184 virtual SA stations. We evaluate the impact of different stochastic noises on the estimation of the velocity of the sea surface height (SSH) time series using BIC_tp information criterion. In the second step, the principal component analysis (PCA) allows the common mode noise in the SSH time series to be mitigated. Finally, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics and accuracy of sea level change derived from SA. Our results suggest that the stochasticity of the SSH time series is not well described by a combination of random, flicker, and white noise, but is best described by an ARFIM/ARMA/GGM process. After removing the common mode noise with PCA, about 96.7% of the times series’ RMS decreased, and most of the uncertainty associated with the computed SLR decreased. We confirm that the spatiotemporal correlations should be accounted for to yield trustworthy trends and reliable uncertainties. Our estimated SLR is 2.75 ± 0.89 mm/yr, which aligns closely with recent studies, emphasizing the robustness and consistency of our method using virtual SA stations. We additionally introduce open-source software (SA_Tool V1.0) to process the SA data and reduce noise in surface height time series to the community.

Abstract The climate response of tropical Southeast Asia to abrupt climate change originating from high northern latitudes remains poorly understood. Here, marine sediments recovered from the Northwest Borneo Trough are analyzed to trace variations in terrigenous material composition associated with sea level and palaeoflood activities over the past 40 ka. We describe for the first time the influence of sea level change on terrigenous deposition from a tropical island with small mountainous rivers surrounded by narrow continental shelves and the coupling between North Atlantic dynamics and climate feedbacks in tropical Southeast Asia during the Dansgaard‐Oeschger stadials. This study demonstrates that climate oscillations occurring at high northern latitudes can be transmitted to tropical Southeast Asia through the functions of sea level, the East Asian winter monsoon and the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Such information is fundamental to correctly assessing future sea level rise and flood risks in tropical Southeast Asia.

Abstract This study investigates long‐term sea level changes in the South China Sea (SCS) using a validated high‐resolution regional ocean model simulation for the Maritime Continent. The contributions of ocean mass redistribution and steric sea level are examined to understand the sea level variations. The ocean bottom pressure (OBP) serves as an indicator of sea level variations linked to alterations in ocean mass flux. The OBP accounts for over 80% of the total sea level change over the shelves, while the steric sea level emerges as the dominant factor, contributing over 50% to the sea level change in the deep SCS. Luzon Strait transport shows a weakening trend in the last six decades, resulting in higher heat accumulation and larger steric expansion in the deep SCS. The ocean mass redistribution acts as a mechanism to balance the contrasting steric induced sea level changes over the deep SCS and shallow continental shelves.

We report radiocarbon dates obtained from on-shore marine and near-shore terrestrial deposits near Yzerfontein, on the West Coast of South Africa. These deposits include Late Pleistocene shell concretions from the southern end of 16 Mile Beach and a marine shell deposit inland of the coastal Rooipan (Red Pan); mid-Holocene coastal pan deposits exposed by modern storm erosion of the sandy 16 Mile Beach; and four Holocene storm beach deposits on a rocky shore to the south. We interpret the results in terms of local geomorphology constraints on sea-level fluctuations. The eastern margin of Rooipan is a >40 ka elevated beach deposit in a dune cordon that separates it from the adjacent Yzerfonteinpan. Both pans have gypsum deposits up to 2 m thick formed by repeated marine overwash. Saline pan deposits that are exposed intermittently on the beach are mid-Holocene and indicate a former westward extension of Rooipan. This is in contrast to storm beaches dating 8000–2600 cal BP at higher elevations on a rocky platform further south. This suggests that a dune barrier existed seaward of the present shoreline near Rooipan at this time. The coastal changes described here show that deposition and erosion can be affected significantly by the local palaeogeomorphology and cannot be ascribed solely to sea-level change. Significance: Mollusc shells from Yzerfontein, Western Cape Province, South Africa, show radiocarbon ages ranging from >40 000 years to a few decades before present. There is evidence for elevated sea levels between 8000 and 2600 years ago, and sea levels similar to the present in the last 2000 years. Neither the elevation of the deposits nor their ages conform to published sea-level change curves for the Western Cape coast. Inundation by rising sea levels in the Holocene was not spatially uniform. Former and present geomorphology have had a significant effect on deposition and preservation of indicators of sea-level change.

Over the past two decades, the GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and GRACE Follow-On mission (GRACE-FO) have provided monthly measurements of the gravity field as sets of Stokes coefficients, referred to as spherical harmonics solutions. The variations of the gravity field can be used to infer mass variations on the surface of the Earth, mostly driven by the redistribution of water. However, unconstrained GRACE and GRACE-FO solutions are affected by strong correlated errors, easily identified as stripes along the north–south direction in the spatial domain. Here, we develop a filter based on the principle of diffusion to remove correlated errors and access the underlying geophysical signals. In contrast to many filters developed for this task, diffusion filters allow a spatially variable level of filtering that can be adapted to match spatially variable signal-to-noise ratios. Most importantly, the formalism of diffusion allows the implementation of boundary conditions, which can be used to prevent any flux through the coastlines during the filtering step. As mass conservation is enforced in the filter, global indicators such as trends in the global mean ocean mass are preserved. Compared with traditional filters, diffusion filters ensure the consistency of the solution at global and regional scales for ocean applications. Because leakage errors occurring during the filtering step are suppressed, better agreement is found when comparing diffusion-filtered spherical harmonic solutions with mascon solutions and independent estimates based on altimetry and in situ data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The radiocarbon (14C) marine reservoir effect (MRE) is very sensitive to physical and chemical processes affecting the local carbon (C) cycle. In coastal zones, these tend to be numerous and complex, hindering the derivation of local marine reservoir offsets (ΔR) for the establishment of archaeological chronologies. Although discussions of how the magnitude of the MRE responds to factors such as the presence of coastal upwelling are common in the literature, little has been done to assess how the effect is influenced by a changing relative sea level. Here, we address the MRE temporal variation on the coast of Rio de Janeiro in the light of updated 14C calibration curves and considering the Holocene relative sea-level curve for the region. To achieve this, we employ Bayesian modelling to analyze published and new 14C ages from Brazilian archaeological sites and pre-bomb samples. In this study, we show evidence for a Late Holocene increase in the MRE, varying from −577 ± 56 14C yr at ca. 5500 cal BP to −29 ± 25 14C yr at present, associated with a decreased relative sea-level.

The present-day sea-level variations and vertical movements in the northern Adriatic Sea and in the highly vulnerable Venetian Lagoon result from a number of simultaneously operating contributions. These include Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA), the global, long-term process arising from interactions between the cryosphere, the solid Earth and the oceans in response to the melting of continental ice sheets. Although the GIA contribution in northern Adriatic Sea has been the subject of various investigations so far, significant uncertainties still exist, especially related to the extent and chronology of the Würm Alpine ice sheet and to the rheological profile of the mantle. Here, taking advantage of the recent publication of updated deglaciation chronologies for the far field late-Pleistocene ice sheets and for the near-field alpine ice complex, we produce up-to-date estimates of the present-day rates of GIA-induced relative sea-level variations and vertical displacements in the Venetian Lagoon and in the northern Adriatic Sea, which are compared with GNSS and tide-gauge observations. From high-resolution numerical simulations, we find that GIA is responsible for a complex pattern of geodetic signals across the Po plain and the northern Adriatic Sea. The modeled GIA rates are of the order of fractions of mm yr−1, generally small – but not negligible – compared to the signals observed at local tide gauges and at GNSS sites in the Po plain and facing the Venetian Lagoon. Our results indicate that, while GIA represents a relatively small component among those responsible for present-day land movements and relative sea-level variations in the northern Adriatic Sea, its contribution needs to be taken into account for a correct interpretation of the observed geodetic variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ongoing work shows that species richness patterns on volcanic oceanic islands are shaped by surface area changes driven by longer time scale (>1 ka) geological processes and natural sea level fluctuations. A key question is: what are the rates and magnitudes of the forces driving spatial changes on volcanic oceanic islands which in turn affect evolutionary and biogeographic processes? We quantified the rates of surface-area changes of a whole island resulting from both volcanogenic flows and sea level change over the last glacial-interglacial (GI) cycle (120 ka) for the volcanically active island of Terceira, (Azores, Macaronesia, Portugal). Volcanogenic activity led to incidental but long-lasting surface area expansions by the formation of a new volcanic cone and lava-deltas, whereas sea level changes led to both contractions and expansions of area. The total surface area of Terceira decreased by as much as 24% per time step due to changing sea levels and increased by 37% per time step due to volcanism per time step of 10 ka. However, while sea levels nearly continuously changed the total surface area, volcanic activity only impacted total surface area during two time steps over the past 120 ka. The surface area of the coastal and lowland region (here defined as area

Small stress changes such as those from sea level fluctuations can be large enough to trigger earthquakes. If small and large earthquakes initiate similarly, high‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds are best suited to illuminate such processes. Below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault, a segment of ≈ $\approx $150 km is late in its seismic cycle. We generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for a hydrothermal region in the eastern Sea of Marmara employing AI‐based and template matching techniques to investigate the link between sea level fluctuations and seismicity over 6 months. All high resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are larger during time periods shortly after local minima of sea level, when it is already rising. Local strainmeters indicate that seismicity is promoted when the ratio of differential to areal strain is the largest. The strain changes from sea level variations, on the order of 30–300 nstrain, are sufficient to promote seismicity. Plain Language Summary: Quasi‐periodic phenomena are a natural probe to test how the Earth's responses to a certain stress perturbation. High‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds may provide a new opportunity to look for this type of earthquake triggering. A segment of 150 km below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault is late in its seismic cycle. Here, we generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for 6 months covering a hydrothermal region south of Istanbul in the eastern Sea of Marmara including seismicity up to MW 4.5. For first time in this region, we document a strong effect of the Sea of Marmara water level changes on the local seismicity. Both high‐resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are significantly larger during time periods shortly after local minima on sea level, when the sea level is rising. The available local instrumentation provided an estimate of the strain changes that were sufficient to promote seismicity. If such small stress perturbations from sea level changes are enough to trigger seismicity, it may suggest that the region is very close to failure. Key Points: We generated enhanced seismicity catalogs to investigate the potential link between sea level change and seismicity in a hydrothermal regionHigher seismicity rates from the entire and declustered catalogs are observed during time periods when sea level is risingStrain estimates from local strainmeters show that seismicity was promoted during reduced normal and enhanced shear strain conditions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The biotas of Taiwan and Hainan Islands are of continental origin, but the manner with which historical and ecological factors shaped these insular species is still unclear. Here, we used freshwater fish as a model to fill this gap by quantifying the phylogenetic structure of the insular faunas and disentangling the relative contribution of potential drivers. Firstly, we used clustering and ordination analyses to identify regional species pools. To test whether the insular freshwater fish faunas were phylogenetically clustered or overdispersed, we calculated the net relatedness index (NRI) and the nearest taxon index (NTI). Finally, we implemented logistic regressions to disentangle the relative importance of species attributes (i.e. maximum body length, climatic niche dissimilarity [ND], and diversification) and historical connectivity (HC) in explaining the insular faunas. Our results showed that the most possible species pools of Taiwan are Zhejiang and Fujian provinces, and those of Hainan are Guangdong and Guangxi provinces. These insular faunas showed random phylogenetic structures in terms of NRI values. According to the NTI values, however, the Taiwanese fauna displayed more phylogenetic clustering, while the Hainanese one was more overdispersed. Both the standard and phylogenetic logistic regressions identified HC and climatic ND as the 2 top explanatory variables for species assemblages on these islands. Our reconstruction of the paleo-connected drainage basins provides insight into how historical processes and ecological factors interact to shape the freshwater fish fauna of the East Asian islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Contemporary crustal uplift and relative sea level (RSL) change in Greenland is caused by the response of the solid Earth to ongoing and historical ice mass change. Glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models, which seek to match patterns of land surface displacement and RSL change, typically employ a linear Maxwell viscoelastic model for the Earth's mantle. In Greenland, however, upper mantle viscosities inferred from ice load changes and other geophysical phenomena occurring over a range of timescales vary by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we use full‐spectrum rheological models to examine the influence of transient deformation within the Greenland upper mantle, which may account for these differing viscosity estimates. We use observations of shear wave velocity combined with constitutive rheological models to self‐consistently calculate mechanical properties including the apparent upper mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness across a broad spectrum of frequencies. We find that the contribution of transient behavior is most significant over loading timescales of 102–103 years, which corresponds to the timeframe of ice mass loss over recent centuries. Predicted apparent lithosphere thicknesses are also in good agreement with inferences made across seismic, GIA, and flexural timescales. Our results indicate that full‐spectrum constitutive models that more fully capture broadband mantle relaxation provide a means of reconciling seemingly contradictory estimates of Greenland's upper mantle viscosity and lithosphere thickness made from observations spanning a range of timescales.

This study utilizes 27 years of sea level anomaly (SLA) data obtained from satellite altimetry to investigate spatial–temporal variations in the South China Sea (SCS). The local mean decomposition (LMD) method is applied to decompose the sea level data into three components: high-frequency, low-frequency, and trend components. By removing the influence of high-frequency components, multiple time series of regular sea level changes with significant physical significance are obtained. The results indicate that the average multi-year SLA is 50.16 mm, with a linear trend of 3.91 ± 0.12 mm/a. The wavelet analysis method was employed to examine the significant annual and 1.5-year periodic signals in the SCS SLA series. At the seasonal scale, the sea level rise in coastal areas during autumn and winter surpasses that of spring and summer. Moreover, there are generally opposing spatial distributions between spring and autumn, as well as between summer and winter. The linear trends in multi-year SLA for the four seasons are 3.70 ± 0.13 mm/a, 3.66 ± 0.16 mm/a, 3.49 ± 0.16 mm/a, and 3.74 ± 0.33 mm/a, respectively. The causes of SCS sea level change are examined in relation to phenomena such as monsoons, the Kuroshio Current, and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of SCS SLA, the contributions of the first three modes of variance are determined to be 34.09%, 28.84%, and 8.40%, respectively. The temporal coefficients and spatial distribution characteristics of these modes confirm their associations with ENSO, monsoons, and the double-gyre structure of SCS sea surface temperature. For instance, ENSO impacts SCS sea level change through atmospheric circulation, predominantly affecting the region between 116° E and 120° E longitude, and 14° N and 20° N latitude.

Changes in sea level exhibit nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and multivariable characteristics, making traditional time series forecasting methods less effective in producing satisfactory results. To enhance the accuracy of sea level change predictions, this study introduced an improved variational mode decomposition and ensemble empirical mode decomposition–long short-term memory hybrid model (VMD–EEMD–LSTM). This model decomposes satellite altimetry data from near the Dutch coast using VMD, resulting in components of the intrinsic mode functions (IMFs) with various frequencies, along with a residual sequence. EEMD further dissects the residual sequence obtained from VMD into second-order components. These IMFs decomposed by VMD and EEMD are utilized as features in the LSTM model for making predictions, culminating in the final forecasted results. The experimental results, obtained through a comparative analysis of six sets of Dutch coastal sea surface height data, confirm the excellent accuracy of the hybrid model proposed (root mean square error (RMSE) = 47.2 mm, mean absolute error (MAE) = 33.3 mm, coefficient of determination (R2) = 0.9). Compared to the VMD-LSTM model, the average decrease in RMSE was 58.7%, the average reduction in MAE was 60.0%, and the average increase in R2 was 49.9%. In comparison to the EEMD-LSTM model, the average decrease in RMSE was 27.0%, the average decrease in MAE was 28.0%, and the average increase in R2 was 6.5%. The VMD–EEMD–LSTM model exhibited significantly improved predictive performance. The model proposed in this study demonstrates a notable enhancement in global mean sea lever (GMSL) forecasting accuracy during testing along the Dutch coast.

Jurassic strata in the ST gas field of the northern West Siberia Basin have been regarded as a potential exploration target with undiscovered hydrocarbon resources. However limited research has been performed on the sequence stratigraphy of the Jurassic strata, as well as its sandstone distribution controlled by variable sea level change and sediment input. In this paper, four third-order sequences (SQ1, SQ2, SQ3, and SQ4) and nine fourth-order sequences for the Jurassic strata are interpreted based on seismic facies analysis and the lithology stacking patterns of seven wells. SQ1 is characterized by the special Bazhenov Formation which is featured by regionally distributed deep marine shales. SQ2 (J1) is composed of a coarsening upward sequence, the base of which is an unconformable surface that can be recognizable in both seismic profiles and well logging data. SQ3 (J2-J8) is composed of a complete fining-upward and coarsening-upward sequence, showing a series of transgressive and regressive successions. A complete SQ4 has not been drilled through by all the seven wells, only showing a coarsening upward succession on its top (J9) which evolves into a fining upward succession at the base of SQ3. Combined with the seismic inversion result, which predicts sandstone distribution, a sequence evolution model was built for SQ3 showing a full unit of transgressive system tract and highstand system tract (TST-HST) which often occurs in shallow marine shelves. During sequence development, most reservoir sandstones are deposited in the shelf and tidal delta environment at the bottom of the TST and the top of HST, and mudstones are deposited as shelf mudstones, especially at maximum flooding surface. That is controlled by both accommodation and sediment input. Generally, under this sequence framework, the depositional architecture can be further analyzed with implications for source rock, reservoir sandstones, and sealing rock, which may guide future gas exploration and exploitation in this area.

Abstract Earth’s crust responds to perturbations from various environmental factors. To evaluate this response, seismic velocity changes offer an indirect diagnostic, especially where velocity can be monitored on an ongoing basis from ambient seismic noise. Investigating the connection between the seismic velocity changes and external perturbations could be useful for characterizing dynamic activities in the crust. The seismic velocity is known to be sensitive to variations in meteorological signals such as temperature, snow, and precipitation as well as changes in sea level. Among these perturbations, the impact of variations in sea level on velocity changes inferred from seismic interferometry of ambient noise is not well known. This study investigates the influence of the ocean in a 3-year record of ambient noise seismic velocity monitoring in the Chugoku and Shikoku regions of southwest Japan. First, we applied a bandpass filter to determine the optimal period band for discriminating among different influences on seismic velocity. Then, we applied a regression analysis between the proximity of seismic station pairs to the coast and the ocean influence, as indicated by the correlation of sea level to seismic velocity changes between pairs of stations. Our study suggests that for periods between 0.0036 to 0.0155 cycle/day (64–274 days), the ocean’s influence on seismic velocity decreases with increasing distance of station pairs from the coast. The increasing sea level deforms the ocean floor, affecting the stress in the adjacent coast. The stress change induced by the ocean loading may extend at least dozens of kilometers from the coast. The correlation between sea level and inland seismic velocity changes is negative or positive. Although it is difficult to clearly interpret the correlation based on a simple model, they could depend on the in situ local stress, orientation of dominant crack, and hydraulic conductivity. Our study shows that seismic monitoring may be useful for evaluating the perturbation in the crust associated with an external load. Graphical abstract

Abstract Small stress changes such as those from sea level fluctuations can be large enough to trigger earthquakes. If small and large earthquakes initiate similarly, high‐resolution catalogs with low detection thresholds are best suited to illuminate such processes. Below the Sea of Marmara section of the North Anatolian Fault, a segment of ≈150 km is late in its seismic cycle. We generated high‐resolution seismicity catalogs for a hydrothermal region in the eastern Sea of Marmara employing AI‐based and template matching techniques to investigate the link between sea level fluctuations and seismicity over 6 months. All high resolution catalogs show that local seismicity rates are larger during time periods shortly after local minima of sea level, when it is already rising. Local strainmeters indicate that seismicity is promoted when the ratio of differential to areal strain is the largest. The strain changes from sea level variations, on the order of 30–300 nstrain, are sufficient to promote seismicity.

Global sea level rise is both a major indicator and consequence of global warming. At present, global warming is causing sea level rise in two main ways: one is the thermal expansion of sea water, and the other is the injection of large amounts of fresh water into the ocean after glaciers and ice sheets melt. In this paper, satellite altimeter data are used to study the total changes of global sea level from 2002 to 2020. Different from most previous studies, this study proposes a calculation method of sea level anomaly using only the along track altimetry data, which is similar to considering the satellite points as tide gauges, in order to avoid the error caused by interpolation in the map data. In addition, GRACE satellite data are used to calculate the changes of global sea level caused by water increase; temperature and salinity data are used to calculate the changes from ocean thermal expansion. Next, using satellite altimetry data, the calculation results show that the global sea level rise rate in the period of 2002–2020 is 3.3 mm/a. During this period, the sea level change caused by the increase of sea water calculated with GRACE satellite data is 2.07 mm/a, and that caused by the thermal expansion of seawater is 0.62 mm/a. The sea level rise caused by the increase of water volume accounts for 62.7% of the total sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) gravity mission has become a leading platform for monitoring temporal changes in the Earth's global gravity field. However, the usability of GRACE data is severely limited by 11 months of missing data between the GRACE and GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO) missions. To date, several approaches have been proposed to fill this data gap in the form of spherical harmonic coefficients (an expression of the Earth's gravity field, SHCs). However, systematic analysis to reveal the characteristics and consistency of the datasets produced by these latest gap-filling techniques is yet to be carried out. Here, three SHC gap-filling products are systematically analyzed and compared: (1) Combining high–low satellite-to-satellite tracking with satellite laser ranging (SLR) observations (QuantumFrontiers, QF), (2) SLR-based recovery incorporating the GRACE empirical orthogonal function decomposition model proposed by the Institute of Geodesy and Geoinformation at the University of Bonn (hereafter, denoted as IGG), and (3) applying the singular spectrum analysis approach (SSA). The results show that (1) the SHCs of the QF, IGG, and SSA data are consistent up to degree 12; (2) the IGG and SSA data give similar results over the 11 gap months, but the IGG shows a faster increase in the mean ocean water mass and the SSA appears to better capture the interannual variation in the terrestrial water storage; and (3) the noise level increases significantly in the high-degree terms (l > 16) of the QF data, so these data are only applicable for large-scale mass migration research. These results provide a reference for users to select a gap-filling product. Finally, we propose a new scheme based on the triple collocation method to derive a weight matrix to fuse these three datasets into a more robust solution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corals do not all grow near the sea surface. Different species favour different ranges in depth and can survive at different depths from 0 to 5 m to over 0–100 m. Fossil corals, as markers of sea level, are the preferred choice in radiometric dating. Timing and magnitude of sea-level variations are determined from the location and age of a set of in-situ coral samples, and mark the lower bound in sea level. In addition, they have to be assigned an uncertainty to define the upper bound in sea level. This is referred to as the paleowater depth (PWD) and creates a major ambiguity in estimating the appropriate span of habitable depth in sea level. This uncertainty also has an impact on constraining the timing and magnitude of rapid changes in sea level. However, there are approaches that may minimize PWD uncertainties. These include assessing sea level data for groups of coral, during relatively stable sea levels, rather than individually. If samples were recovered in multiple drill-cores, along a sea-bed transect, tighter PWD constraints may apply for samples, in each core, depending on the magnitude of the slope of the sea bed. This method is particularly useful in cases of rapid sea level change over shallow continental shelves when the shift in the shoreline, with sea level change, is large. In these circumstances, the presence of a shallow-water reef established up or down-slope is indicative of a rapid change in sea level.

Earth's crust responds to perturbations from various environmental factors. To evaluate this response, seismic velocity changes offer an indirect diagnostic, especially where velocity can be monitored on an ongoing basis from ambient seismic noise. Investigating the connection between the seismic velocity changes and external perturbations could be useful for characterizing dynamic activities in the crust. The seismic velocity is known to be sensitive to variations in meteorological signals such as temperature, snow, and precipitation as well as changes in sea level. Among these perturbations, the impact of variations in sea level on velocity changes inferred from seismic interferometry of ambient noise is not well known. This study investigates the influence of the ocean in a 3-year record of ambient noise seismic velocity monitoring in the Chugoku and Shikoku regions of southwest Japan. First, we applied a bandpass filter to determine the optimal period band for discriminating among different influences on seismic velocity. Then, we applied a regression analysis between the proximity of seismic station pairs to the coast and the ocean influence, as indicated by the correlation of sea level to seismic velocity changes between pairs of stations. Our study suggests that for periods between 0.0036 to 0.0155 cycle/day (64–274 days), the ocean's influence on seismic velocity decreases with increasing distance of station pairs from the coast. The increasing sea level deforms the ocean floor, affecting the stress in the adjacent coast. The stress change induced by the ocean loading may extend at least dozens of kilometers from the coast. The correlation between sea level and inland seismic velocity changes is negative or positive. Although it is difficult to clearly interpret the correlation based on a simple model, they could depend on the in situ local stress, orientation of dominant crack, and hydraulic conductivity. Our study shows that seismic monitoring may be useful for evaluating the perturbation in the crust associated with an external load. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) caused by the melting of past ice sheets is still a major cause of sea level variations and 3-D crustal deformation in the Mediterranean region. However, since the contribution of GIA cannot be separated from those of oceanic or tectonic origin, its role can be only assessed by numerical modelling, solving the gravitationally self-consistent sea level equation. Nonetheless, uncertainties about the melting history of the late-Pleistocene ice sheets and the rheological profile of the Earth's mantle affect the GIA predictions by an unknown amount. Estimating the GIA modelling uncertainties would be particularly important in the Mediterranean region, due to the amount of high quality geodetic data from space-borne and ground-based observations currently available, whose interpretation demands a suitable isostatic correction. Here we first review previous results about the effects of GIA in the Mediterranean Sea, enlightening the variability of all the fields affected by the persistent condition of isostatic disequilibrium. Then, for the first time in this region, we adopt an ensemble modelling approach to better constrain the present-day GIA contributions to sea level rise and geodetic variations, and their uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]