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The issue of water scarcity, exacerbated by climate change and demographic increase, has become a growing concern in many regions throughout the world. Understanding hydrological behaviour to promote resilient and sustainable water management is paramount. Hydrological models that integrate natural processes and anthropogenic alterations of the basin's hydrology are a powerful tool to support decision-making. We developed a SWAT+ hydrological model including stakeholder expert knowledge on water management and introducing a novel calibration and validation approach suitable for heterogeneous basins in space and / or time. We also assessed spatio-temporal patterns and trends of streamflow during the first two decades of the 21st century in the Catalan River Basin District, in the western Mediterranean, using a wide variety of indicators to fully characterize the hydrological regime. We calibrated and validated the model using data from 50 gauging stations, verifying the usefulness of the new calibration and validation strategy. Co-development with stakeholders and the integration of expert knowledge, most notably on reservoir operations, helped improve model performance. Results revealed a generalized streamflow reduction, as well as increased dominance of streamflow flashiness and zero-flows recurrence. We also observed differences in seasonal trends, with autumn being the most affected season. These results provide insights into how climate change and anthropogenic pressures are going to keep affecting water resources availability in the future, thus raising the need for sustainable management practices in the Catalan River Basin District, as well as other regions vulnerable to water scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: older adults are increasing in number and frequently seek hospital care for acute illness. This study aimed to measure the utilization and safety of endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) in patients aged 85 and older in our hospital., Methods: a single-site, retrospective, observational and descriptive study was performed. Data about admissions and ERCP utilization was obtained from our hospital database. Medical and procedural records of patients aged 85 or older who underwent ERCP for choledocholithiasis between 2013 and 2019 were reviewed. Technical and medical adverse events after ERCP were evaluated., Results: four hundred and ninety-four ERCP due to choledocholithiasis were performed during the study period and 154 (31 %) patients were aged 85 or older; 567 (4.8 %) admissions due to biliary tract diseases were identified in the older population, and 27 % of cases required ERCP. In older patients, the rate of technical adverse events was around 10 %. There was no statistical difference between the older and younger groups regarding technical complications (8.8 vs 9.7 %; p = 0.7). Furthermore, in 36 % of cases, a medical event, decompensated comorbidity or geriatric syndromes appeared after ERCP. The overall mortality for any cause at six months was nearly 20 %, and the survival rate was significantly lower in patients who developed adverse events (technical or medical)., Conclusions: in our hospital, ERCP is frequently used for patients aged 85 and older. Although technical adverse event rates are similar to those of younger adults, medical events appear frequently. We plan to strengthen our care plans for older adults and hope to reduce the medical complications experienced post-ERCP.

Background: Cyclooxygenase 2 (COX-2) overexpression is a frequent but not universal event in colorectal cancer. It has been suggested that COX-2 protein expression is reduced in colorectal cancer with a defective mismatch repair (MMR) system, a phenomenon commonly associated with hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) but also present in up to 15% of sporadic tumors., Aim: To assess COX-2 expression in a large series of fully characterized colorectal cancer patients with respect to the MMR system and to dissect the mechanisms responsible for altered COX-2 expression in this setting., Patients and Methods: MMR-deficient colorectal cancer were identified in a nationwide, prospective, multicenter study (EPICOLON project). Control MMR-proficient colorectal cancer patients were randomly selected. COX-2 expression was evaluated by immunohistochemistry. Personal and familial characteristics, as well as MSH2/MLH1 expression and germ line mutations, were evaluated., Results: One hundred fifty-three patients, 46 with MMR deficiency and 107 with MMR proficiency, were included in the analysis. Overall, tumor COX-2 overexpression was observed in 107 patients (70%). COX-2 overexpression was observed in 85 patients (79%) with a MMR-proficient system, but only in 22 patients (48%) with a MMR-deficient colorectal cancer (P < 0.001). The lack of COX-2 overexpression was independently associated with a MMR-deficient system (odds ratio, 3.89; 95% confidence interval, 1.78-8.51; P = 0.001) and a poor degree of differentiation (OR, 3.83; 95% CI, 1.30-11.31; P = 0.015). In the subset of patients with a MMR-deficient colorectal cancer, lack of COX-2 overexpression correlated with a poor degree of differentiation, no fulfillment of Amsterdam II criteria, absence of MSH2/MLH1 germ line mutations, presence of tumor MSH2 expression, and lack of tumor MLH1 expression. CpG island promoter hypermethylation of COX2 was observed in 6 of 18 (33%) tumors lacking COX-2 expression in comparison with 2 of 28 (7%) tumors expressing this protein (P = 0.04)., Conclusions: Up to half of MMR-deficient colorectal cancer do not show COX-2 overexpression, a fact observed almost exclusively in patients with sporadic forms. COX2 hypermethylation seems to be responsible for gene silencing in one third of them. These results suggest the potential utility of nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs in HNPCC chemoprevention and may explain the lack of response of this approach in some sporadic tumors.