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Premier risque naturel en France, les inondations peuvent entraîner des pertes humaines et provoquer d’importants dégâts matériels. Parmi elles, les crues soudaines causées par des pluies très fortes enregistrées en très peu de temps restent encore difficiles à anticiper et à gérer. La méthode AIGA présentée dans ce article est un outil destiné à mieux identifier ces pluies intenses et anticiper ces crues rapides, notamment quand elles se manifestent au sein de petits bassins versants non équipés de station de mesure. Après une présentation des principes de la méthode, les auteurs s'intéressent à sa mise en oeuvre dans des dispositifs opérationnels de surveillance et d'anticipation des aléas hydrométéorologiques.

Over the last 25 years, flash floods in the South of France have killed almost 250 people. The protection of prone populations is a priority for the French government. It is also a goal of the 2007 European flood directive. However, no accurate database exists gathering the fatalities due to floods in France. Fatalities are supposed to be rare and hazardous, mainly due to individual behaviour. A Ph. D. work has initiated the building of a database gathering a detailed analysis of the circumstances of death and the profiles of the deceased (age, gender…). The study area covers the French Mediterranean departments prone to flash floods over the period 1988-2015. This presentation details the main features of the sample, 244 fatalities collected through newspapers completed with field surveys near police services and municipalities. The sample is broken down between huge events that account for two thirds of the fatalities and “small” events (34 % of the fatalities). Deaths at home account for 35 % of the total number of fatalities, mainly during huge events. 30 % of fatalities are related to vehicles. The last part of the work explains the relations between fatalities and prevention and how better knowledge of flood-related deaths can help to improve flood prevention. The given example shows the relationship between flood forecasting and fatalities. Half of the deaths took place in a small watershed (

Occurring at small temporal and spatial scales, flash floods (FF) can cause severe economic damages and human losses. To better anticipate such events and mitigate their impacts, the French Ministry in charge of Ecology has decided to set up a national FF warning system over the French territory. This automated system will be run by the SCHAPI, the French national service in charge of flood forecasting, providing warnings for fast-responding ungauged catchments (area ranging from ~10 to ~1000 km2). It will therefore be complementary to the SCHAPI’s national “vigilance” system which concerns only gauged catchments. The FF warning system to be implemented in 2017 will be based on a discharge-threshold flood warning method called AIGA (Javelle et al. 2014). This method has been experimented in real time in the south of France in the RHYTMME project (http://rhytmme.irstea.fr). It consists in comparing discharges generated by a simple conceptual hourly hydrologic model run at a 1-km2 resolution to reference flood quantiles of different (e.g., 2-, 10- and 50-year) return periods. Therefore the system characterizes in real time the severity of ongoing events by the range of the return period estimated by AIGA at any point along the river network. The hydrologic model ingests operational rainfall radar-gauge products from Météo-France and takes into account the baseflow and the initial soil humidity conditions to better estimate the basin response to rainfall inputs. To meet the requirements of the future FF warning system, the AIGA method has been extended to the whole French territory (except Corsica and overseas French territories). The calibration, regionalization and validation procedures of the hydrologic model were carried out using data for ~700 hydrometric stations from the 2002-2015 period. Performance of the warning system was evaluated with various contingency criteria (e.g., probability of detection and success rate). Furthermore, specific flood events were analysed in more details, by comparing warnings issued for exceeding different critical flood quantiles and their associated timing with field observations. The performance results show that the proposed FF warning system is useful, especially for ungauged sites. The analysis also points out the need to account for the uncertainties in the precipitation inputs and the hydrological modelling, as well as include precipitation forecasts to improve the effective warning lead time.

The dreadful floods of 1999, 2002 and 2003 in South of France have alerted public opinion on the need for a more efficient and a further generalized national flood-forecasting system. This is why in 2003 Irstea and Meteo-France have implemented a new warning method for flash floods, including on small watersheds, using radar rainfall data in real-time: the AIGA method. This modelling method currently provides real-time information on the magnitude of floods, but doesn’t take into account the elements at risk surrounding the river streams. Its benefit for crisis management is therefore limited as it doesn’t give information on the actual flood risk. To improve the relevance of the AIGA method, this paper shows the benefits of the combination of hydrological warnings with an exposure index, to be able to assess the risk of flood-related damage in real time. To complete this aim, this work presents an innovative and easily reproducible method to evaluate exposure to floods over large areas with simple land-use data. For validation purpose, a damage database has been implemented to test the relevance of both AIGA warnings and exposure levels. A case study on the floods of the 3rd October 2015 is presented to test the effectiveness of the combination of hazard and exposure to assess the risk of flood-related damage. This combination seems to give an accurate overview of the streams at risk, where the most important amount of damage has been observed after the flood.

Anticipating floods is a major challenge for communities at risk of flooding as the entire warning system – responsible for the safety of people and goods - relies on this anticipation. There is an existing monitoring system "Vigicrues" for flood damage for a fifth of the river network in France. But for four-fifths of this network, made of small rivers, no monitoring is available. Yet those rivers are the most affected by flash floods which especially requireanticipation for crisis management purposes. This is why at the beginning of 2017, the Vigicrues system for flood monitoring has been completed with a new flood warning system called Vigicrues Flash. This system provides automatic information in real-time on flood severity of ungauged basins for 10 000 French communities. Even if this new system is a real innovation for communities with no monitoring at all, the AIGA method which is used in Vigicrues-Flash has some limits. The first one is that the warnings are only based on the assessment of flood severity. But estimating flood severity is not enough to issue efficient flood warnings. To be able to do so, taking into account potential flood losses is essential. The main goal of this work is to enable an anticipated estimation of flood related damage, especially for ungauged basins. We offer a method to assess the risk of flood related damage based on flood severity assessed by the AIGA method and a territorial vulnerability assessment. This last one has been built on a bottom-up approach developed with crisis managers. Putting together this data has enabled a first assessment of the risk of flood risk damage as a dynamic risk index. By adjusting performance testing used in the meteorology field, we have been able to evaluate our risk index and to compare the results with the AIGA method. In order to do so, we have used existing damage data (CATNAT from the GASPAR database) as well as a specific multisource database (using notably social media data) which has been put together as part of this study (DamaGIS). The evaluation process has been tested for 12 communities in the Alpes-Maritimes, 69 in the Gard and 28 in the Var department. Two types of evaluation have been performed: a first comprehensive one continuously with CATNAT data on the1988-2016 period; and another one per flood event at a finer scale. Our results show that moving from hazard assessment to risk assessment has significantly increased the relevance of the warnings and mostly at a smaller scale than the community one. Though, there is a better detection of flood related damage as the false alarm rate has been significantly reduced. This work offers promising prospects to improve the current French warning system for floods and enable a more efficient emergency response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]