Search

The uptake of routine childhood vaccinations has declined globally since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, due in part to increased vaccine hesitancy among parents. The Moral Foundations Theory proposes six foundations which can be targeted to increase vaccine uptake. In this study, we tested whether a post by UNICEF with a purity violation message could affect vaccine attitudes among parents in Argentina, where routine immunization coverage has been declining since 2014. Using an online randomized controlled survey experiment, we included 1,511 parents with a child under 12 years in Argentina. Outcomes were measured on the Vaccine Trust Indicator (VTI). We found that the purity violation message significantly affected vaccine attitudes: 80% of the intervention group scored high on the Vaccine Trust Indicator, compared to 73% in the control group (coefficient: 0.33, 95% Confidence Interval 0.20-0.47). Vaccine messaging framed as a purity violation is a promising way to improve vaccine attitudes among parents.

BackgroundLow-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) bear a disproportionate burden of communicable diseases. Social interaction data inform infectious disease models and disease prevention strategies. The variations in demographics and contact patterns across ages, cultures, and locations significantly impact infectious disease dynamics and pathogen transmission. LMICs lack sufficient social interaction data for infectious disease modeling.MethodsTo address this gap, we will collect qualitative and quantitative data from eight study sites (encompassing both rural and urban settings) across Guatemala, India, Pakistan, and Mozambique. We will conduct focus group discussions and cognitive interviews to assess the feasibility and acceptability of our data collection tools at each site. Thematic and rapid analyses will help to identify key themes and categories through coding, guiding the design of quantitative data collection tools (enrollment survey, contact diaries, exit survey, and wearable proximity sensors) and the implementation of study procedures. We will create three age-specific contact matrices (physical, nonphysical, and both) at each study site using data from standardized contact diaries to characterize the patterns of social mixing. Regression analysis will be conducted to identify key drivers of contacts. We will comprehensively profile the frequency, duration, and intensity of infants' interactions with household members using high resolution data from the proximity sensors and calculating infants' proximity score (fraction of time spent by each household member in proximity with the infant, over the total infant contact time) for each household member.DiscussionOur qualitative data yielded insights into the perceptions and acceptability of contact diaries and wearable proximity sensors for collecting social mixing data in LMICs. The quantitative data will allow a more accurate representation of human interactions that lead to the transmission of pathogens through close contact in LMICs. Our findings will provide more appropriate social mixing data for parameterizing mathematical models of LMIC populations. Our study tools could be adapted for other studies.

Social media platforms have a wide and influential reach, and as such provide an opportunity to increase vaccine uptake. To date, there is no large-scale, robust evidence on the offline effects of online messaging campaigns. We aimed to test whether pre-tested, persuasive messaging campaigns from UNICEF, disseminated on Facebook, influenced COVID-19 vaccine uptake in Ukraine, India, and Pakistan. In Ukraine, we deployed a stepped-wedge randomized controlled trial (RCT). Half of the 24 oblasts (provinces) received five weeks of the intervention, the other half ten weeks of the intervention. In India, an RCT with an augmented synthetic control was conducted in five states (Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan), whereby 40 out of 174 districts were randomized to receive six weeks of intervention. In Pakistan we deployed a pre-post design, whereby 25 city districts received six weeks of the intervention. Weekly COVID-19 vaccination data was sourced through government databases. Using Poisson regression models, the association between the intervention and vaccine uptake was estimated. In Ukraine we conducted a survey among Facebook users at three time points during the RCT, to ascertain vaccination intentions and trust in vaccines. The campaigns reached more than 110 million Facebook users and garnered 2.9 million clicks. In Ukraine, we found that the intervention did not affect oblast-level vaccination coverage (Relative Risk (RR): 0.93, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.86-1.01). Similarly, in India and Pakistan we found no effect of our intervention (India: RR 0.85, 95% CI 0.70-1.04; Pakistan: RR 0.64, 95% CI 0.01-29.9). The survey among Facebook users in Ukraine showed that trust in vaccines and information sources was an important predictor of vaccination status and intention to get vaccinated. Our campaigns on Facebook had a wide reach, which did not translate in shifting behaviours. Timing and external events may have limited the effectiveness of our interventions.

Improved uptake of adult vaccinations could substantially reduce the burden of infectious disease worldwide, however very few countries achieve high coverage of recommended adult vaccinations. Vaccine hesitancy is an important driver of low vaccine uptake among adults but no measure currently exists to capture general vaccination attitudes in this population accurately and efficiently. We utilize data from two surveys of adult vaccine attitudes and uptake conducted in fifteen countries to evaluate the Vaccination Trust Indicator (VTI). The VTI is a six-item measure intended to capture general vaccine attitudes. We utilized multivariable logistic regression to examine the association between VTI scores and self-reported receipt of the seasonal influenza vaccine, receipt of a tetanus toxoid-containing vaccine and intent to receive the flu vaccine in the next season. In the five countries with self-reported vaccine receipt data, we found that a ten-point increase in VTI score was associated with a 50% increase in odds of influenza vaccine receipt (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.48, 1.62) and 25% increase in the odds of tetanus vaccine receipt (OR = 1.26, 95% CI = 1.21, 1.30). Strong associations between VTI score and vaccine receipt were found in each country except China. A strong association between VTI score and intent to receive the influenza vaccine was found in all fifteen countries. The VTI is a promising tool for assessing adult immunization attitudes with clear and immediate uses for immunization programs globally.

The impact of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccination on pregnancy and fertility has become a major topic of public interest. We investigated 2 of the most widely propagated claims to determine (1) whether COVID-19 mRNA vaccination of mice during early pregnancy is associated with an increased incidence of birth defects or growth abnormalities; and (2) whether COVID-19 mRNA-vaccinated human volunteers exhibit elevated levels of antibodies to the human placental protein syncytin-1. Using a mouse model, we found that intramuscular COVID-19 mRNA vaccination during early pregnancy at gestational age E7.5 did not lead to differences in fetal size by crown-rump length or weight at term, nor did we observe any gross birth defects. In contrast, injection of the TLR3 agonist and double-stranded RNA mimic polyinosinic-polycytidylic acid, or poly(I:C), impacted growth in utero leading to reduced fetal size. No overt maternal illness following either vaccination or poly(I:C) exposure was observed. We also found that term fetuses from these murine pregnancies vaccinated prior to the formation of the definitive placenta exhibit high circulating levels of anti-spike and anti-receptor-binding domain (anti-RBD) antibodies to Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) consistent with maternal antibody status, indicating transplacental transfer in the later stages of pregnancy after early immunization. Finally, we did not detect increased levels of circulating anti-syncytin-1 antibodies in a cohort of COVID-19 vaccinated adults compared to unvaccinated adults by ELISA. Our findings contradict popular claims associating COVID-19 mRNA vaccination with infertility and adverse neonatal outcomes.

Amidst an unprecedented Monkeypox outbreak, we aimed to measure knowledge, attitudes, practices and Monkeypox vaccination intentions among the U.S. adult population. We conducted an online cross-sectional survey, representative of the U.S. adult general public in June 2022. We asked participants whether they would receive a Monkeypox vaccine, if they were recommended to do so. Participants also answered questions on their self-assessed level of Monkeypox knowledge, risk perception, perceived exaggeration of the threat, and self-efficacy around Monkeypox. Furthermore, we asked about their trusted sources of information, COVID-19 vaccination status and administered the 6-item Vaccine Trust Indicator (VTI). Survey weights were created based on age, gender and race. We analyzed predictors of Monkeypox vaccination intentions using logistic regression, adjusted for education, age, race and ethnicity. A total of 856 respondents completed the survey, of which 51% (n = 436) were female and 41% (n = 348) had a college degree or higher. If recommended, 46% of respondents intended to get vaccinated against Monkeypox, 29% would not get vaccinated and 25% did not know. Almost half the respondents (47%) found their own knowledge level about Monkeypox poor or very poor. The most trusted sources of information about the outbreak were healthcare professionals and officials, but also known doctors and researchers with a large online following. Only 24% indicated that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention should be in charge of the outbreak response. Being vaccinated against COVID-19 was a strong predictor of intention to receive a Monkeypox if recommended (adjusted Odds Ratio (aOR) 29.2, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 13.1-65.3). Increased risk perception was positively associated with vaccination intentions (aOR 2.6, 95% CI 1.8-3.6), scoring high on the VTI as well (5.4, 95% CI (3.2-9.1). The low levels of self-assessed knowledge, vaccination intentions and influence of COVID-19 vaccination status point to a lack of clear communication.

What types of public health messages are effective at changing people's beliefs and intentions to practice social distancing to slow the spread of COVID-19? We conducted two randomized experiments in summer 2020 that assigned respondents to read a public health message and then measured their beliefs and behavioral intentions across a wide variety of outcomes. Using both a convenience sample and a pre-registered replication with a nationally representative sample of Americans, we find that a message that reframes not social distancing as recklessness rather than bravery and a message that highlights the need for everyone to take action to protect one another are the most effective at increasing beliefs and intentions related to social distancing. These results provide an evidentiary basis for building effective public health campaigns to increase social distancing during flu pandemics.

ObjectivePakistan was one of the first South-Asian countries to introduce the ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) at the national level, using a 3+0 schedule without catchup, in 2013.MethodsFrom 2014-18, fifteen children ResultsPneumococcus was detected in 2370/3140 (75%) children. Vaccine type (VT) and non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes were carried by 379 and 1990 children. There was a significant decline in VT carriage (by 40.3%, p-value ConclusionThe emergence of NVT serotypes, primarily 19A replacing VT serotypes in this rural community, necessitates continuous monitoring of serotypes in the carriage and invasive disease to evaluate the utility of existing vaccine formulations.

BackgroundAn infodemic is an overflow of information of varying quality that surges across digital and physical environments during an acute public health event. It leads to confusion, risk-taking, and behaviors that can harm health and lead to erosion of trust in health authorities and public health responses. Owing to the global scale and high stakes of the health emergency, responding to the infodemic related to the pandemic is particularly urgent. Building on diverse research disciplines and expanding the discipline of infodemiology, more evidence-based interventions are needed to design infodemic management interventions and tools and implement them by health emergency responders. ObjectiveThe World Health Organization organized the first global infodemiology conference, entirely online, during June and July 2020, with a follow-up process from August to October 2020, to review current multidisciplinary evidence, interventions, and practices that can be applied to the COVID-19 infodemic response. This resulted in the creation of a public health research agenda for managing infodemics. MethodsAs part of the conference, a structured expert judgment synthesis method was used to formulate a public health research agenda. A total of 110 participants represented diverse scientific disciplines from over 35 countries and global public health implementing partners. The conference used a laddered discussion sprint methodology by rotating participant teams, and a managed follow-up process was used to assemble a research agenda based on the discussion and structured expert feedback. This resulted in a five-workstream frame of the research agenda for infodemic management and 166 suggested research questions. The participants then ranked the questions for feasibility and expected public health impact. The expert consensus was summarized in a public health research agenda that included a list of priority research questions. ResultsThe public health research agenda for infodemic management has five workstreams: (1) measuring and continuously monitoring the impact of infodemics during health emergencies; (2) detecting signals and understanding the spread and risk of infodemics; (3) responding and deploying interventions that mitigate and protect against infodemics and their harmful effects; (4) evaluating infodemic interventions and strengthening the resilience of individuals and communities to infodemics; and (5) promoting the development, adaptation, and application of interventions and toolkits for infodemic management. Each workstream identifies research questions and highlights 49 high priority research questions. ConclusionsPublic health authorities need to develop, validate, implement, and adapt tools and interventions for managing infodemics in acute public health events in ways that are appropriate for their countries and contexts. Infodemiology provides a scientific foundation to make this possible. This research agenda proposes a structured framework for targeted investment for the scientific community, policy makers, implementing organizations, and other stakeholders to consider.

The dataset described in this paper was collected for a time-series cross-sectional study exploring the impact of 10-valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV10) on nasopharyngeal (NP) carriage in children under 2 years of age from a rural population in Sindh, Pakistan. The study was carried out in two union councils of Matiari - Khyber and Shah Alam Shah Jee Wasi (Latitude 25.680298 / Longitude 68.502711). Data was collected on socio-demographics, clinical characteristics and vaccination status using android phone-based application. NP samples were collected using standard World Health Organisation (WHO) techniques, culture and serotyping was done using sequential Multiplex PCR described by Centre for Disease Control, USA. We looked at the carriage rate of vaccine type (VT) and non-vaccine type (NVT) serotypes over time in vaccinated and unvaccinated children. We additionally looked at the predictors for pneumococcal carriage. The uploaded dataset, available on Mendeley data repository (Nisar, Muhammad Imran (2021), “Impact of PCV10 on nasopharyngeal carriage in children in Pakistan”, Mendeley Data, V1, doi:10.17632/t79h6g97gr.1), has 3140 observations in CSV format. Additional files uploaded include a data dictionary and the set of questionnaires. The dataset and accompanying files can be used by other interested researchers to replicate our analysis, carry similar analysis under varying set of assumptions or perform additional exploratory or metanalysis

In the absence of widespread vaccination for COVID-19, governments and public health officials have advocated for the public to wear masks during the pandemic. The decision to wear a mask in public is likely affected by both beliefs about its efficacy and the prevalence of the behavior. Greater mask use in the community may encourage others to follow this norm, but it also creates an incentive for individuals to free ride on the protection afforded to them by others. We report the results of two vignette-based experiments conducted in the United States (n = 3,100) and Italy (n = 2,659) to examine the causal relationship between beliefs, social norms, and reported intentions to engage in mask promoting behavior. In both countries, survey respondents were quota sampled to be representative of the country's population on key demographics. We find that providing information about how masks protect others increases the likelihood that someone would wear a mask or encourage others to do so in the United States, but not in Italy. There is no effect of providing information about how masks protect the wearer in either country. Additionally, greater mask use increases intentions to wear a mask and encourage someone else to wear theirs properly in both the United States and Italy. Thus, community mask use may be self-reinforcing.

Pneumonia is the leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children worldwide. The ten valent pneumococcal vaccine (PCV10) was introduced in Pakistan's Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) in 2012 as a 3 + 0 schedule without catchup immunization. Nasopharyngeal carriage is taken as a surrogate marker to measure the impact of pneumococcal vaccine on populations. Carriage surveys are necessary to monitor the persistence of Vaccine Type (VT) serotypes, the emergence of Non-Vaccine Type (NVT) serotypes, and their role in both transmission and disease. This article describes various troubleshooting measures which we undertook to adopt the protocol to our setting. We also used an innovative approach to describe various epidemiological parameters of vaccine effectiveness against carriage. It is important to publish these methods to allow for valid regional and temporal comparisons of results in different settings. Thus, in this article, we describe the following methods for isolating upper airway pneumococcal carriage: • Methods for the collection, transport, and storage of nasopharyngeal samples. • Methods for identification and serotyping of pneumococci. • Methods for estimation of the direct and indirect effects of pneumococcal vaccines on nasopharyngeal carriage.

The current quantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-qPCR) assay recommended for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) testing in the United States requires analysis of 3 genomic targets per sample: 2 viral and 1 host. To simplify testing and reduce the volume of required reagents, we devised a multiplex RT-qPCR assay to detect SARS-CoV-2 in a single reaction. We used existing N1, N2, and RP primer and probe sets by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, but substituted fluorophores to allow multiplexing of the assay. The cycle threshold (Ct) values of our multiplex RT-qPCR were comparable to those obtained by the single assay adapted for research purposes. Low copy numbers (≥500 copies/reaction) of SARS-CoV-2 RNA were consistently detected by the multiplex RT-qPCR. Our novel multiplex RT-qPCR improves upon current single diagnostics by saving reagents, costs, time, and labor.

Summary: Background: Seasonal influenza virus is a common cause of acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) in young children. In 2008, we estimated that 20 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI and 1 million influenza-virus-associated severe ALRI occurred in children under 5 years globally. Despite this substantial burden, only a few low-income and middle-income countries have adopted routine influenza vaccination policies for children and, where present, these have achieved only low or unknown levels of vaccine uptake. Moreover, the influenza burden might have changed due to the emergence and circulation of influenza A/H1N1pdm09. We aimed to incorporate new data to update estimates of the global number of cases, hospital admissions, and mortality from influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years in 2018. Methods: We estimated the regional and global burden of influenza-associated respiratory infections in children under 5 years from a systematic review of 100 studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2018, and a further 57 high-quality unpublished studies. We adapted the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale to assess the risk of bias. We estimated incidence and hospitalisation rates of influenza-virus-associated respiratory infections by severity, case ascertainment, region, and age. We estimated in-hospital deaths from influenza virus ALRI by combining hospital admissions and in-hospital case-fatality ratios of influenza virus ALRI. We estimated the upper bound of influenza virus-associated ALRI deaths based on the number of in-hospital deaths, US paediatric influenza-associated death data, and population-based childhood all-cause pneumonia mortality data in six sites in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Findings: In 2018, among children under 5 years globally, there were an estimated 109·5 million influenza virus episodes (uncertainty range [UR] 63·1–190·6), 10·1 million influenza-virus-associated ALRI cases (6·8–15·1); 870 000 influenza-virus-associated ALRI hospital admissions (543 000–1 415 000), 15 300 in-hospital deaths (5800–43 800), and up to 34 800 (13 200–97 200) overall influenza-virus-associated ALRI deaths. Influenza virus accounted for 7% of ALRI cases, 5% of ALRI hospital admissions, and 4% of ALRI deaths in children under 5 years. About 23% of the hospital admissions and 36% of the in-hospital deaths were in infants under 6 months. About 82% of the in-hospital deaths occurred in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. Interpretation: A large proportion of the influenza-associated burden occurs among young infants and in low-income and lower middle-income countries. Our findings provide new and important evidence for maternal and paediatric influenza immunisation, and should inform future immunisation policy particularly in low-income and middle-income countries. Funding: WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak is spreading globally. Although COVID-19 has now been declared a pandemic and risk for infection in the United States (US) is currently high, at the time of survey administration the risk of infection in the US was low. It is important to understand the public perception of risk and trust in sources of information to better inform public health messaging. In this study, we surveyed the adult US population to understand their risk perceptions about the COVID-19 outbreak. We used an online platform to survey 718 adults in the US in early February 2020 using a questionnaire that we developed. Our sample was fairly similar to the general adult US population in terms of age, gender, race, ethnicity and education. We found that 69% of the respondents wanted the scientific/public health leadership (either the CDC Director or NIH Director) to lead the US response to COVID-19 outbreak as compared to 14% who wanted the political leadership (either the president or Congress) to lead the response. Risk perception was low (median score of 5 out of 10) with the respondents trusting health professionals and health officials for information on COVID-19. The majority of respondents were in favor of strict infection prevention policies to control the outbreak. Given our results, the public health/scientific leadership should be at the forefront of the COVID-19 response to promote trust.

Preterm birth is the leading cause of death among children

OBJECTIVES/SPECIFIC AIMS: The primary objective of this study is to determine the prevalence of maternal GBS colonization and demographic risk factors associated with maternal GBS colonization in Latin America. Secondary objectives include: To determine if there is an association between maternal colonization with GBS and stillbirth or preterm birth in Latin America. To determine the effect of cesarean section (CS) on the incidence of neonatal sepsis with GBS in mothers colonized with GBS. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Study Population: Pregnant women who received prenatal care at sites that utilize the Perinatal Information System (SIP) from 1989 through 2015, and were screened for GBS between 35 and 37 weeks of gestation. Maternal exclusion criteria included spontaneous abortion, stillbirth before 35 weeks, and lack of screening for GBS. Methods: Estimated prevalence (and 95% confidence interval) of maternal GBS colonization for the entire data set, by region, and by country. The prevalence data for each country further stratified by maternal age, ethnicity, education, civil status and habitation. Descriptive statistics calculated for each clinical prenatal and clinical perinatal health indicator as well as for each clinical history variable for GBS colonized and non-GBS colonized women. Odds ratios will be calculated for each demographic and clinical risk factor. Fisher’s exact tests will be used to test hypotheses about the relationship between maternal GBS colonization and specific perinatal outcomes such as stillbirth or preterm birth. We will use multiple logistic regression models to test the hypotheses about the relationships between demographic variables, maternal GBS colonization and perinatal outcomes. RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Preliminary results: 712,061 records included in database. 98,852 records with data for GBS screening. o90.6% White, 7.4% Mixed, 0.6% Black, 0.3% Native Indian, 0.1% Other. GBS prevalence among screened women, 17.5% There was a significant association between maternal GBS colonization and ethnicity (X2 (4, N=97006)=569.901, p

The Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) is witnessing an increase in chronic disorders, including mental illness. With ongoing unrest, this is expected to rise. This is the first study to quantify the burden of mental disorders in the EMR. We used data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2013. DALYs (disability-adjusted life years) allow assessment of both premature mortality (years of life lost-YLLs) and nonfatal outcomes (years lived with disability-YLDs). DALYs are computed by adding YLLs and YLDs for each age-sex-country group. In 2013, mental disorders contributed to 5.6% of the total disease burden in the EMR (1894 DALYS/100,000 population): 2519 DALYS/100,000 (2590/100,000 males, 2426/100,000 females) in high-income countries, 1884 DALYS/100,000 (1618/100,000 males, 2157/100,000 females) in middle-income countries, 1607 DALYS/100,000 (1500/100,000 males, 1717/100,000 females) in low-income countries. Females had a greater proportion of burden due to mental disorders than did males of equivalent ages, except for those under 15 years of age. The highest proportion of DALYs occurred in the 25-49 age group, with a peak in the 35-39 years age group (5344 DALYs/100,000). The burden of mental disorders in EMR increased from 1726 DALYs/100,000 in 1990 to 1912 DALYs/100,000 in 2013 (10.8% increase). Within the mental disorders group in EMR, depressive disorders accounted for most DALYs, followed by anxiety disorders. Among EMR countries, Palestine had the largest burden of mental disorders. Nearly all EMR countries had a higher mental disorder burden compared to the global level. Our findings call for EMR ministries of health to increase provision of mental health services and to address the stigma of mental illness. Moreover, our results showing the accelerating burden of mental health are alarming as the region is seeing an increased level of instability. Indeed, mental health problems, if not properly addressed, will lead to an increased burden of diseases in the region.

Background: The eastern Mediterranean region is comprised of 22 countries: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates, and Yemen. Since our Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 (GBD 2010), the region has faced unrest as a result of revolutions, wars, and the so-called Arab uprisings. The objective of this study was to present the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the eastern Mediterranean region as of 2013. Methods: GBD 2013 includes an annual assessment covering 188 countries from 1990 to 2013. The study covers 306 diseases and injuries, 1233 sequelae, and 79 risk factors. Our GBD 2013 analyses included the addition of new data through updated systematic reviews and through the contribution of unpublished data sources from collaborators, an updated version of modelling software, and several improvements in our methods. In this systematic analysis, we use data from GBD 2013 to analyse the burden of disease and injuries in the eastern Mediterranean region specifically. Findings: The leading cause of death in the region in 2013 was ischaemic heart disease (90·3 deaths per 100 000 people), which increased by 17·2% since 1990. However, diarrhoeal diseases were the leading cause of death in Somalia (186·7 deaths per 100 000 people) in 2013, which decreased by 26·9% since 1990. The leading cause of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) was ischaemic heart disease for males and lower respiratory infection for females. High blood pressure was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 2013, with an increase of 83·3% since 1990. Risk factors for DALYs varied by country. In low-income countries, childhood wasting was the leading cause of DALYs in Afghanistan, Somalia, and Yemen, whereas unsafe sex was the leading cause in Djibouti. Non-communicable risk factors were the leading cause of DALYs in high-income and middle-income countries in the region. DALY risk factors varied by age, with child and maternal malnutrition affecting the younger age groups (aged 28 days to 4 years), whereas high bodyweight and systolic blood pressure affected older people (aged 60–80 years). The proportion of DALYs attributed to high body-mass index increased from 3·7% to 7·5% between 1990 and 2013. Burden of mental health problems and drug use increased. Most increases in DALYs, especially from non-communicable diseases, were due to population growth. The crises in Egypt, Yemen, Libya, and Syria have resulted in a reduction in life expectancy; life expectancy in Syria would have been 5 years higher than that recorded for females and 6 years higher for males had the crisis not occurred. Interpretation: Our study shows that the eastern Mediterranean region is going through a crucial health phase. The Arab uprisings and the wars that followed, coupled with ageing and population growth, will have a major impact on the region's health and resources. The region has historically seen improvements in life expectancy and other health indicators, even under stress. However, the current situation will cause deteriorating health conditions for many countries and for many years and will have an impact on the region and the rest of the world. Based on our findings, we call for increased investment in health in the region in addition to reducing the conflicts. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

OBJECTIVE:To determine the incidence of pneumonia and severe pneumonia among children living at high altitudes in Pakistan. METHODS: A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in which 99 female government health workers in Punial and Ishkoman valleys (Ghizer district, Northern Areas of Pakistan) enrolled children at home, conducted home visits every 2 weeks and actively referred sick children to 15 health centres. Health centre staff used Integrated Management of Childhood Illness criteria to screen all sick children aged 2-35 months and identify those with pneumonia or severe pneumonia. FINDINGS: Community health workers enrolled 5204 eligible children at home and followed them over a 14-month period, ending on 31 December 2002. Health centre staff identified 1397 cases of pneumonia and 377 of severe pneumonia in enrolled children aged 2-35 months. Among children reported with pneumonia, 28% had multiple episodes. Incidence rates per 100 child-years of observation were 29.9 for pneumonia and 8.1 for severe pneumonia. Factors associated with a high incidence of pneumonia were younger age, male gender and living at high altitude. CONCLUSION: Pneumonia incidence rates in the Northern Areas of Pakistan are much higher than rates reported at lower altitudes in the country and are similar to those in high-altitude settings in other developing countries. More studies are needed to determine the causes of pneumonia in these high-mountain communities. However, early introduction of the vaccines that are known to prevent pneumonia should be considered.

BackgroundGuillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) can be triggered by gastrointestinal or respiratory infections, including influenza. During the 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the United States, monovalent inactivated influenza vaccine (MIV) availability coincided with high rates of wildtype influenza infections. Several prior studies suggested an elevated GBS risk following MIV, but adjustment for antecedent infection was limited.MethodsWe identified patients enrolled in health plans participating in the Vaccine Safety Datalink and diagnosed with GBS from July 2009 through June 2011. Medical records of GBS cases with 2009-10 MIV, 2010-11 trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine (TIV), and/or a medically-attended respiratory or gastrointestinal infection in the 1 through 141 days prior to GBS diagnosis were reviewed and classified according to Brighton Collaboration criteria for diagnostic certainty. Using a case-centered design, logistic regression models adjusted for patient-level time-varying sources of confounding, including seasonal vaccinations and infections in GBS cases and population-level controls.ResultsEighteen confirmed GBS cases received vaccination in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 1.27 million 2009-10 MIV recipients and 2.80 million 2010-11 TIV recipients. Forty-four confirmed GBS cases had infection in the 6 weeks preceding onset, among 3.77 million patients diagnosed with medically-attended infection. The observed-versus-expected odds that 2009-10 MIV/2010-11 TIV was received in the 6 weeks preceding GBS onset was odds ratio = 1.54, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-3.99; risk difference = 0.93 per million doses, 95% CI, -0.71-5.16. The association between GBS and medically-attended infection was: odds ratio = 7.73, 95% CI, 3.60-16.61; risk difference = 11.62 per million infected patients, 95% CI, 4.49-26.94. These findings were consistent in sensitivity analyses using alternative infection definitions and risk intervals for prior vaccination shorter than 6 weeks.ConclusionsAfter adjusting for antecedent infections, we found no evidence for an elevated GBS risk following 2009-10 MIV/2010-11 TIV influenza vaccines. However, the association between GBS and antecedent infection was strongly elevated.

Antenatal immunization of mothers with influenza vaccine increases serum antibodies and reduces the rates of influenza illness in mothers and their infants. We report the effect of antenatal immunization on the levels of specific anti-influenza IgA levels in human breast milk. (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00142389; http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00142389).The Mother's Gift study was a prospective, blinded, randomized controlled trial that assigned 340 pregnant Bangladeshi mothers to receive either trivalent inactivated influenza vaccine, or 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine during the third trimester. We evaluated breast milk at birth, 6 weeks, 6 months, and 12 months, and serum at 10 weeks and 12 months. Milk and serum specimens from 57 subjects were assayed for specific IgA antibody to influenza A/New Caledonia (H1N1) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and a virus neutralization assay, and for total IgA using ELISA. Influenza-specific IgA levels in breast milk were significantly higher in influenza vaccinees than in pneumococcal controls for at least 6 months postpartum (p = 0.04). Geometric mean concentrations ranged from 8.0 to 91.1 ELISA units/ml in vaccinees, versus 2.3 to 13.7 ELISA units/mL in controls. Virus neutralization titers in milk were 1.2 to 3 fold greater in vaccinees, and correlated with influenza-specific IgA levels (r = 0.86). Greater exclusivity of breastfeeding in the first 6 months of life significantly decreased the expected number of respiratory illness with fever episodes in infants of influenza-vaccinated mothers (p = 0.0042) but not in infants of pneumococcal-vaccinated mothers (p = 0.4154).The sustained high levels of actively produced anti-influenza IgA in breast milk and the decreased infant episodes of respiratory illness with fever suggest that breastfeeding may provide local mucosal protection for the infant for at least 6 months. Studies are needed to determine the cellular and immunologic mechanisms of breast milk-mediated protection after antepartum immunization.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00142389.

BackgroundInfections during pregnancy have the potential to adversely impact birth outcomes. We evaluated the association between receipt of inactivated influenza vaccine during pregnancy and prematurity and small for gestational age (SGA) births.Methods and findingsWe conducted a cohort analysis of surveillance data from the Georgia (United States) Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System. Among 4,326 live births between 1 June 2004 and 30 September 2006, maternal influenza vaccine information was available for 4,168 (96.3%). The primary intervention evaluated in this study was receipt of influenza vaccine during any trimester of pregnancy. The main outcome measures were prematurity (gestational age at birth ConclusionsThis study demonstrates an association between immunization with the inactivated influenza vaccine during pregnancy and reduced likelihood of prematurity during local, regional, and widespread influenza activity periods. However, no associations were found for the pre-influenza activity period. Moreover, during the period of widespread influenza activity there was an association between maternal receipt of influenza vaccine and reduced likelihood of SGA birth.

This study investigates the effects of non-response bias in a 2010 postal survey assessing experiences with H1N1 influenza vaccine administration among a diverse sample of providers (N = 765) in Washington state. Though we garnered a high response rate (80.9%) by using evidence-based survey design elements, including intensive follow-up and a gift card incentive from Target, non-response bias could exist if there were differences between respondents and non-respondents. We investigated differences between the two groups for seven variables: road distance to the nearest Target store, practice type, previous administration of vaccines, region, urbanicity, size of practice, and Vaccines for Children (VFC) program enrollment. We also examined the effect of non-response bias on survey estimates. Statistically significant differences between respondents and non-respondents were found for four variables: miles to the nearest Target store, type of medical practice, whether the practice routinely administered additional vaccines besides H1N1, and urbanicity. Practices were more likely to respond if they were from a small town or rural area (OR = 7.68, 95% CI = 1.44-40.88), were a non-traditional vaccine provider type (OR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.06-4.08) or a pediatric provider type (OR = 4.03, 95% CI = 1.36-11.96), or administered additional vaccines besides H1N1 (OR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.03-3.15). Of particular interest, for each ten mile increase in road distance from the nearest Target store, the likelihood of provider response decreased (OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.60-0.89). Of those variables associated with response, only small town or rural practice location was associated with a survey estimate of interest, suggesting that non-response bias had a minimal effect on survey estimates. These findings show that gift card incentives alongside survey design elements and follow-up can achieve high response rates. However, there is evidence that practices farther from the nearest place to redeem gift cards may be less likely to respond to the survey.

We assessed the literacy level and readability of online communications about H1N1/09 influenza issued by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) during the first month of outbreak. Documents were classified as targeting one of six audiences ranging in technical expertise. Flesch-Kincaid (FK) measure assessed literacy level for each group of documents. ANOVA models tested for differences in FK scores across target audiences and over time. Readability was assessed for documents targeting non-technical audiences using the Suitability Assessment of Materials (SAM). Overall, there was a main-effect by audience, F(5, 82) = 29.72, P.05. A time-by-audience interaction was significant, F(10, 82) = 2.11, P

Local public health agencies play a central role in response to an influenza pandemic, and understanding the willingness of their employees to report to work is therefore a critically relevant concern for pandemic influenza planning efforts. Witte's Extended Parallel Process Model (EPPM) has been found useful for understanding adaptive behavior in the face of unknown risk, and thus offers a framework for examining scenario-specific willingness to respond among local public health workers. We thus aim to use the EPPM as a lens for examining the influences of perceived threat and efficacy on local public health workers' response willingness to pandemic influenza.We administered an online, EPPM-based survey about attitudes/beliefs toward emergency response (Johns Hopkins approximately Public Health Infrastructure Response Survey Tool), to local public health employees in three states between November 2006-December 2007. A total of 1835 responses were collected for an overall response rate of 83%. With some regional variation, overall 16% of the workers in 2006-7 were not willing to "respond to a pandemic flu emergency regardless of its severity". Local health department employees with a perception of high threat and high efficacy--i.e., those fitting a 'concerned and confident' profile in the EPPM analysis--had the highest declared rates of willingness to respond to an influenza pandemic if required by their agency, which was 31.7 times higher than those fitting a 'low threat/low efficacy' EPPM profile.In the context of pandemic influenza planning, the EPPM provides a useful framework to inform nuanced understanding of baseline levels of--and gaps in--local public health workers' response willingness. Within local health departments, 'concerned and confident' employees are most likely to be willing to respond. This finding may allow public health agencies to design, implement, and evaluate training programs focused on emergency response attitudes in health departments.