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This paper analyses COVID-19 patients’ dynamics during the first wave in the region of Castilla y León (Spain) with around 2.4 million inhabitants using multi-state competing risk survival models. From the date registered as the start of the clinical process, it is assumed that a patient can progress through three intermediate states until reaching an absorbing state of recovery or death. Demographic characteristics, epidemiological factors such as the time of infection and previous vaccinations, clinical history, complications during the course of the disease and drug therapy for hospitalised patients are considered as candidate predictors. Regarding risk factors associated with mortality and severity, consistent results with many other studies have been found, such as older age, being male, and chronic diseases. Specifically, the hospitalisation (death) rate for those over 69 is 27.2% (19.8%) versus 5.3% (0.7%) for those under 70, and for males is 14.5%(7%) versus 8.3%(4.6%)for females. Among patients with chronic diseases the highest rates of hospitalisation are 26.1% for diabetes and 26.3% for kidney disease, while the highest death rate is 21.9% for cerebrovascular disease. Moreover, specific predictors for different transitions are given, and estimates of the probability of recovery and death for each patient are provided by the model. Some interesting results obtained are that for patients infected at the end of the period the hazard of transition from hospitalisation to ICU is significatively lower (p < 0.001) and the hazard of transition from hospitalisation to recovery is higher (p < 0.001). For patients previously vaccinated against pneumococcus the hazard of transition to recovery is higher (p < 0.001). Finally, internal validation and calibration of the model are also performed.

Funder: Cancer Research UK, Funder: Breast Cancer Now, Funder: Addenbrookes Charitable Trust, Funder: Mark Foundation For Cancer Research; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100014599, Funder: Addenbrooke's Charitable Trust, Cambridge University Hospitals (GB), Background: NRG1 gene fusions may be clinically actionable, since cancers carrying the fusion transcripts can be sensitive to tyrosine kinase inhibitors. The NRG1 gene encodes ligands for the HER2(ERBB2)-ERBB3 heterodimeric receptor tyrosine kinase, and the gene fusions are thought to lead to autocrine stimulation of the receptor. The NRG1 fusion expressed in the breast cancer cell line MDA-MB-175 serves as a model example of such fusions, showing the proposed autocrine loop and exceptional drug sensitivity. However, its structure has not been properly characterised, its oncogenic activity has not been fully explained, and there is limited data on such fusions in breast cancer. Methods: We analysed genomic rearrangements and transcripts of NRG1 in MDA-MB-175 and a panel of 571 breast cancers. Results: We found that the MDA-MB-175 fusion—originally reported as a DOC4(TENM4)-NRG1 fusion, lacking the cytoplasmic tail of NRG1—is in reality a double fusion, PPP6R3-TENM4-NRG1, producing multiple transcripts, some of which include the cytoplasmic tail. We hypothesise that many NRG1 fusions may be oncogenic not for lacking the cytoplasmic domain but because they do not encode NRG1’s nuclear-localised form. The fusion in MDA-MB-175 is the result of a very complex genomic rearrangement, which we partially characterised, that creates additional expressed gene fusions, RSF1-TENM4, TPCN2-RSF1, and MRPL48-GAB2. We searched for NRG1 rearrangements in 571 breast cancers subjected to genome sequencing and transcriptome sequencing and found four cases (0.7%) with fusions, WRN-NRG1, FAM91A1-NRG1, ARHGEF39-NRG1, and ZNF704-NRG1, all splicing into NRG1 at the same exon as in MDA-MB-175. However, the WRN-NRG1 and ARHGEF39-NRG1 fusions were out of frame. We identified rearrangements of NRG1 in many more (8% of) cases that seemed more likely to inactivate than to create activating fusions, or whose outcome could not be predicted because they were complex, or both. This is not surprising because NRG1 can be pro-apoptotic and is inactivated in some breast cancers. Conclusions: Our results highlight the complexity of rearrangements of NRG1 in breast cancers and confirm that some do not activate but inactivate. Careful interpretation of NRG1 rearrangements will therefore be necessary for appropriate patient management.

Molecular profiling of breast cancer has enabled the development of more robust molecular prognostic signatures and therapeutic options for breast cancer patients. However, non-Caucasian populations remain understudied. Here, we present the mutational, transcriptional, and copy number profiles of 560 Malaysian breast tumours and a comparative analysis of breast cancers arising in Asian and Caucasian women. Compared to breast tumours in Caucasian women, we show an increased prevalence of HER2-enriched molecular subtypes and higher prevalence of TP53 somatic mutations in ER+ Asian breast tumours. We also observe elevated immune scores in Asian breast tumours, suggesting potential clinical response to immune checkpoint inhibitors. Whilst HER2-subtype and enriched immune score are associated with improved survival, presence of TP53 somatic mutations is associated with poorer survival in ER+ tumours. Taken together, these population differences unveil opportunities to improve the understanding of this disease and lay the foundation for precision medicine in different populations., Molecular profiling of breast cancer in non-Caucasian populations remains underexplored. Here the authors report a high prevalence of HER2-subtypes and enriched immune score with improved survival and higher rates of TP53 somatic mutations with poorer survival in ER+ tumours in a Malaysian cohort.

Somatic copy number alterations are a frequent sign of genome instability in cancer. A precise characterization of the genome architecture would reveal underlying instability mechanisms and provide an instrument for outcome prediction and treatment guidance. Here we show that the local spatial behavior of copy number profiles conveys important information about this architecture. Six filters were defined to characterize regional traits in copy number profiles, and the resulting Copy Aberration Regional Mapping Analysis (CARMA) algorithm was applied to tumors in four breast cancer cohorts (n = 2919). The derived motifs represent a layer of information that complements established molecular classifications of breast cancer. A score reflecting presence or absence of motifs provided a highly significant independent prognostic predictor. Results were consistent between cohorts. The nonsite-specific occurrence of the detected patterns suggests that CARMA captures underlying replication and repair defects and could have a future potential in treatment stratification., Pladsen et al. develop Copy Aberration Regional Mapping Analysis (CARMA), an algorithm that derives motifs for copy number profiles in breast cancers by integrating several features, to predict breast cancer prognosis and stratifications. Their algorithm can detect replication and repair defects and can be used in personalized medicine.

Breast cancers are complex ecosystems of malignant cells and the tumour microenvironment1. The composition of these tumour ecosystems and interactions within them contribute to responses to cytotoxic therapy2. Efforts to build response predictors have not incorporated this knowledge. We collected clinical, digital pathology, genomic and transcriptomic profiles of pre-treatment biopsies of breast tumours from 168 patients treated with chemotherapy with or without HER2 (encoded by ERBB2)-targeted therapy before surgery. Pathology end points (complete response or residual disease) at surgery3 were then correlated with multi-omic features in these diagnostic biopsies. Here we show that response to treatment is modulated by the pre-treated tumour ecosystem, and its multi-omics landscape can be integrated in predictive models using machine learning. The degree of residual disease following therapy is monotonically associated with pre-therapy features, including tumour mutational and copy number landscapes, tumour proliferation, immune infiltration and T cell dysfunction and exclusion. Combining these features into a multi-omic machine learning model predicted a pathological complete response in an external validation cohort (75 patients) with an area under the curve of 0.87. In conclusion, response to therapy is determined by the baseline characteristics of the totality of the tumour ecosystem captured through data integration and machine learning. This approach could be used to develop predictors for other cancers., Integration of pre-treatment tumour features in predictive models using machine learning could inform on response to therapy.

Funder: Cancer Research UK, Funder: Wellcome Trust, DNA methylation is aberrant in cancer, but the dynamics, regulatory role and clinical implications of such epigenetic changes are still poorly understood. Here, reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS) profiles of 1538 breast tumors and 244 normal breast tissues from the METABRIC cohort are reported, facilitating detailed analysis of DNA methylation within a rich context of genomic, transcriptional, and clinical data. Tumor methylation from immune and stromal signatures are deconvoluted leading to the discovery of a tumor replication-linked clock with genome-wide methylation loss in non-CpG island sites. Unexpectedly, methylation in most tumor CpG islands follows two replication-independent processes of gain (MG) or loss (ML) that we term epigenomic instability. Epigenomic instability is correlated with tumor grade and stage, TP53 mutations and poorer prognosis. After controlling for these global trans-acting trends, as well as for X-linked dosage compensation effects, cis-specific methylation and expression correlations are uncovered at hundreds of promoters and over a thousand distal elements. Some of these targeted known tumor suppressors and oncogenes. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that global epigenetic instability can erode cancer methylomes and expose them to localized methylation aberrations in-cis resulting in transcriptional changes seen in tumors.

Unlike early transcriptional responses to mitogens, later events are less well-characterized. Here, we identified delayed down-regulated genes (DDGs) in mammary cells after prolonged treatment with epidermal growth factor (EGF). The expression of these DDGs was low in mammary tumors and correlated with prognosis. The proteins encoded by several DDGs directly bind to and inactivate oncoproteins and might therefore act as tumor suppressors. The transcription factor teashirt zinc finger homeobox 2 (TSHZ2) is encoded by a DDG, and we found that overexpression of TSHZ2 inhibited tumor growth and metastasis and accelerated mammary gland development in mice. Although the gene TSHZ2 localizes to a locus (20q13.2) that is frequently amplified in breast cancer, we found that hypermethylation of its promoter correlated with down-regulation of TSHZ2 expression in patients. Yeast two-hybrid screens and protein-fragment complementation assays in mammalian cells indicated that TSHZ2 nucleated a multiprotein complex containing PRC1/Ase1, cyclin B1, and additional proteins that regulate cytokinesis. TSHZ2 increased the inhibitory phosphorylation of PRC1, a key driver of mitosis, mediated by cyclin-dependent kinases. Furthermore, similar to the tumor suppressive transcription factor p53, TSHZ2 inhibited transcription from the PRC1 promoter. By recognizing DDGs as a distinct group in the transcriptional response to EGF, our findings uncover a group of tumor suppressors and reveal a role for TSHZ2 in cell cycle regulation.

Hyperpolarized 13C-MRI is an emerging tool for probing tissue metabolism by measuring 13C-label exchange between intravenously injected hyperpolarized [1–13C]pyruvate and endogenous tissue lactate. Here, we demonstrate that hyperpolarized 13C-MRI can be used to detect early response to neoadjuvant therapy in breast cancer. Seven patients underwent multiparametric 1H-MRI and hyperpolarized 13C-MRI before and 7–11 days after commencing treatment. An increase in the lactate-to-pyruvate ratio of approximately 20% identified three patients who, following 5–6 cycles of treatment, showed pathological complete response. This ratio correlated with gene expression of the pyruvate transporter MCT1 and lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA), the enzyme catalyzing label exchange between pyruvate and lactate. Analysis of approximately 2,000 breast tumors showed that overexpression of LDHA and the hypoxia marker CAIX was associated with reduced relapse-free and overall survival. Hyperpolarized 13C-MRI represents a promising method for monitoring very early treatment response in breast cancer and has demonstrated prognostic potential. Significance: Hyperpolarized carbon-13 MRI allows response assessment in patients with breast cancer after 7–11 days of neoadjuvant chemotherapy and outperformed state-of-the-art and research quantitative proton MRI techniques.

The heterogeneity of breast cancer plays a major role in drug response and resistance and has been extensively characterized at the genomic level. Here, a single-cell breast cancer mass cytometry (BCMC) panel is optimized to identify cell phenotypes and their oncogenic signalling states in a biobank of patient-derived tumour xenograft (PDTX) models representing the diversity of human breast cancer. The BCMC panel identifies 13 cellular phenotypes (11 human and 2 murine), associated with both breast cancer subtypes and specific genomic features. Pre-treatment cellular phenotypic composition is a determinant of response to anticancer therapies. Single-cell profiling also reveals drug-induced cellular phenotypic dynamics, unravelling previously unnoticed intra-tumour response diversity. The comprehensive view of the landscapes of cellular phenotypic heterogeneity in PDTXs uncovered by the BCMC panel, which is mirrored in primary human tumours, has profound implications for understanding and predicting therapy response and resistance., The heterogeneity of breast cancer has a major role in drug response and resistance. In this study, the authors use patient-derived tumour xenografts as a platform for drug testing and correlation with single-cell proteomic phenotypes characterized by mass cytometry.