Search

Infrastructure has always been a fundamental driver of long-term economic growth, but in recent decades information and communication technology (ICT) has supported and accelerated the growth of the global economy in ways beyond the imagining of our ancestors. This study examines the role of ICT infrastructure in facilitating labor markets access and remittance flows for workers from the Kyrgyz Republic. Using a combination of traditional high frequency macroeconomic data and real time internet search information from Google Trends, we take a novel approach to explaining the inflow of remittances to a developing country. In the first attempt to model remittance behavior with GTI data in this context, we use a gravity model. We also attempt to account for both origin and destination labor market conditions, using Kyrgyz language search words to identify both push and pull factors affecting migrant decisions.

En este artículo reformulamos la matriz de contabilidad social (SAM-80) elaborada por los autores (Kehoe et al (1986) y Kehoe, Manresa, Polo y Sancho (1988a)) para la economía española; esta nueva SAM, cuadrada, ajustada al formato estándar de las Naciones Unidas, la denominamos SAM-80E. Tras explicar las características más relevantes de la SAM-80E, obtenemos los multiplicadores generalizados de Leontief y estudiamos los efectos de modificaciones exógenas sobre la composición sectorial de la producción, así como la distribución funcional y personal de la renta, utilizando diversas medidas (relativas) de incidencia redistributiva

Throughout history, animal husbandry has been a central component of agriculture and livestock has been central to agrofood systems. Animals have provided rural societies with a broad spectrum of products and services, including food, energy, fertilizers, traction and transport, pest control, security, etc. Despite the immense benefits enjoyed by humans from this symbiotic relationship, coexistence with domestic animals also poses serious risks. Most important among these are infectious diseases of animal origin that can affect humans (zoonoses). These have been prominent among the many pandemics that have wiped out millions of people and communities since the earliest human settlements. To cite a relatively recent example, the 1918–1920 Spanish Flu Pandemic, caused by a virus with Avian origins, was responsible for tens of millions of deaths worldwide (Murray et al. 2006). Recent research on the human genome suggests that we have acquired resistance to such diseases over a much longer history of recurrent viral threats.

After two generations of economic growth, the next phase of structural transformation for Asia will have several salient features. Our results suggest that no single policy orientation, pathway, or even destination will apply to all economies. The main driver for each economy's structural change will be demand, both domestic and external. These demand sources can have very different sector emphasis, however, and drive domestic resource allocation in different directions. Asian economies with high export shares will be drawn to more intensive primary and industrial resource allocation, while those with larger domestic demand shares will become more service-oriented. Our long-term forecasts for the Asian economies suggest that factor productivity growth continues to be essential to improving livelihoods generally and promoting regional convergence in particular. Of particular importance is potential for reducing regional inequality through more inclusive growth - productivity improvements are more cost-effective in lower-income countries and they have a bigger relative income dividend. Our research also reveals that services are essential contributors to average living standards in high-, medium-, and even low-income Asian economies. For this reason, policies that improve the efficiency of service sector labor allocation, as well as skill and productivity improvements via determined education and training programs, will be essential to sustaining higher living standards and transition to long-term growth sustained by demand from an ever-expanding middle class.

Bangladesh today faces a different future than it did decades ago when relatively abundant natural gas seemed to be the key to prosperity. To support more evidence-based dialogue on energy development, allocation, and pricing reform, this study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate major energy policy issues facing Bangladesh. A relatively small negative growth impact of increased energy prices can be easily counteracted by an economy-wide increase in energy efficiency or subsidized gas for fertilizer production. A gas price increase does not lead to significant inflationary pressures in the country’s economy. Diversification of the power sector fuel mix by introducing coal provides good macroeconomic indicators but results in higher carbon emissions. Investing the gas revenue in physical and social infrastructure provides the best macroeconomic indicators. This best policy option, however, further increases carbon emissions. Impacts of these different policies in terms of increased household income are more or less equally distributed among different household groups. Most of the attractive policy options have the drawback of higher carbon emissions, and supplementary policies and suitable technology adoption should play a balancing role.

The emergence of biofuel as a renewable energy source offers opportunities for climate change mitigation and greater energy security for many countries. At the same time, biofuel represents the possibility of substitution between energy and food. For developing countries like India, which imports over 75% of its crude oil, fossil fuels pose two risks - global warming pollution and negative economic impacts of oil price hikes. This paper examines India's options for managing energy price risk in three ways: biofuel development, energy efficiency promotion, and food productivity improvements. The overall results suggest that biodiesel shows promise as a transport fuel substitute that can be produced in ways that fully utilize marginal agricultural resources and hence promote rural livelihoods. First-generation bioethanol, by contrast, appears to have a limited ability to offset the impacts of oil price hikes. Combining the biodiesel expansion policy with energy efficiency improvements and food productivity increases proved to be a more effective strategy to enhance both energy and food security, help mitigate climate change, and cushion the economy against oil price shocks.

The valuation of traceable or safety-branded food by consumers in developing countries affected by diseases such as avian influenza, or with food safety issues in general, is very difficult to identify. Products that have safety-branding are not common, and food is usually purchased by bargaining at informal markets. However, valuation of traceability has important implications for livestock disease policies as well as agricultural sector development. Through developing a short-term certified supply chain for free range chicken in Hanoi, we were able to conduct a combined field experiment and detailed household survey to measure the valuation of this type of poultry. We find that consumers in urban Hanoi on average have a welfare gain of about $1 per whole chicken purchase for safety-branding and traceability, which translates into a potential annual consumer welfare gain of $66 million for such characteristics.

Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise gross domestic product per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend on individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is geographic targeting that shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-computable general equilibrium model with small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the World Trade Organization. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 percent to14.3 percent. Full liberalization will benefit the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

Economic emergence of the People's Republic of China (PRC) and India has fundamentally altered the economic landscape of Asia and its relation to the global economy. Using the new dynamic global model, we present forecasts for Asian expansion over 2025. These baseline growth forecasts elucidate shifting patterns of regional specialization and their consequences for growth and structural change in the Asian economies. The central role of trade is examined through analysis of a variety of hypothetical global and regional trade agreements. Our results indicate that trade within the Asian region is far from reaching its potential, and policies that facilitate integration and more efficient regional trade can accelerate growth, especially for lower-income Asia. A deeper and more inclusive Asian free trade area can achieve for its members large benefits. As an emerging growth bridge between the PRC and India, ASEAN economies have the most to gain from Asian economic integration.

Trade policies can promote aggregate efficiency, but the ensuing structural adjustments generally create both winners and losers. From an incomes perspective, trade liberalization can raise GDP per capita, but rates of emergence from poverty depend upon individual household characteristics of economic participation and asset holding. To fully realize the growth potential of trade, while limiting the risk of rising inequality, policies need to better account for microeconomic heterogeneity. One approach to this is the geographic targeting, which shifts resources to poor areas. This study combines an integrated microsimulation-CGE model with the small area estimation to evaluate the spatial incidence of Vietnam's accession to the WTO. Provincial-level poverty reduction after full liberalization was heterogeneous, ranging from 2.2 per cent to 14.3 per cent. Full liberalization will bene?t the poor on a national basis, but the northwestern area of Vietnam is likely to lag behind. Furthermore, poverty can be shown to increase under comparable scenarios.

As Asia's economic growth process matures, regional integration offers important opportunities to sustain and extend the achievements of the more dynamic economies. Benefits from this process will include geographic diversification, often toward superior growth rates, as well as structural differentiation and more rapid evolution from established north–south patterns of trade and specialization. Propagation of growth linkages across this diverse region will also facilitate more inclusive growth and economic convergence. Infrastructure commitments can be an essential guarantor of the entire process, and this paper examines their potential to contribute to more sustained and broadly based Asian growth.