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Crosslinked polyethylene cable is an important equipment in 10 kV distribution system, and its safety is very important. Making scientific judgments on cable repair decisions can help improve the safety and reduce the economic cost. In view of this, a cable risk assessment and repair decision method based on K‑means clustering and random forest(RF) classification model is proposed. The method first defines the risk level and risk degree of the cable based on the insulation status of the cable. Then the K‑means clustering algorithm is used to cluster the multi‑aging index dataset and classify the risk level intervals to build a multi‑aging index risk matrix. Based on the risk matrix of the multi‑aging index, the classification labels corresponding to the multi‑aging index are determined by using the comprehensive weight method. Finally, the classification model of the repair ways of the cables is established and trained based on the RF algorithm, and the selection results of the repair ways are output. The average accuracy of the proposed method reaches 99.70%, achieving rapid and reliable repair decisions for cables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Athenaeum: Polskie Studia Politologiczne is the property of Faculty of Political Science & Security Studies Nicolaus Copernicus University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Serverless computing is one of the recent compelling paradigms in cloud computing. Serverless computing can quickly run user applications and services regardless of the underlying server architecture. Despite the availability of several commercial and open-source serverless platforms, there are still some open issues and challenges to address. One of the key concerns in serverless computing platforms is security. Therefore, in this paper, we present a multi-layer abstract model of serverless computing for an security investigation. We conduct a quantitative analysis of security risks for each layer. We observe that the Attack Tree and Attack-Defense Tree methodologies are viable approaches in this regard. Consequently, we make use of the Attack Tree and the Attack-Defense Tree to quantify the security risks and countermeasures of serverless computing. We also propose a novel measure called the Relative Risk Matrix (RRM) to quantify the probability of attack success. Stakeholders including application developers, researchers, and cloud providers can potentially apply these findings and implications to better understand and further enhance the security of serverless computing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate risk assessment is critical for organisations, especially in sectors such as the processed food sector in Colombia. This study addresses the identification and assessment of the main climate transition risks using an approach that combines fuzzy logic with several multi-criteria decision-making methods. This approach makes it possible to handle the inherent imprecision of these risks and to use linguistic expressions to better describe them. The results indicate that the most critical risks are price volatility and availability of raw materials, the shift towards less carbon-intensive production models, increased carbon taxes, technological advances, and associated development or implementation costs. These risks are the most significant for the organisation studied and underline the need for investments to meet regulatory requirements, which are the main financial drivers for organisations. This analysis highlights the importance of a robust framework to anticipate and mitigate the impacts of the climate transition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty alleviation is critical for sustainable development. Establishing a major public health emergency warning and prevention mechanism for poverty alleviation and marginal populations can effectively determine the overall risk situation and primary risk components in diverse regions. It is conducive to formulate specific policies for risk prevention and control of public health emergencies to prevent the occurrence of poverty relapses. Expert evaluation method is used to grade the risk impact and risk probability. Combined with the Borda ordinal value method to rank the importance of risk factors, a judgment matrix is constructed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process method is used to determine the weight of the risk module. And the impact risk of major health emergencies on poverty alleviation and marginal populations is comprehensively evaluated based on the quantified value of the risk impact level. The results indicate that the production and operation risks and unemployment risks in the case area have a relatively significant impact on poverty alleviation and marginal populations. Different regional government forces and regional economic development characteristics may also form different risk weights. Therefore, risk warning models should match government development and regional development goals and be established based on the characteristics of different regions. Effective risk control mechanisms and policies can only be developed based on the characteristics and behavioral traits of different populations in the region.

With the rapid increase in urban gas consumption, the frequency of maintenance and repair of gas pipelines has escalated, leading to a rise in safety accidents during these processes. The traditional manual supervision model presents challenges such as inaccurate monitoring results, incomplete risk factor analysis, and a lack of quantitative risk assessment. This research focuses on developing a dynamic risk assessment technology for gas emergency repair operations by integrating the monitoring outcomes of artificial olfactory for gas leakage information and video object recognition for visual safety factor monitoring data. To quantitatively evaluate the risk of the operation process, a three-dimensional risk assessment model combining gas leakage with risk-correlated sensitivity was established as well as a separate three-dimensional risk assessment model integrating visual risk factors with predictable risk disposition. Furthermore, a visual risk quantification expression mode based on the risk matrix-radar map method was introduced. Additionally, a risk quantification model based on the fusion of visual and olfactory results was formulated. The verification results of simulation scenarios based on field data indicate that the visual-olfactory fusion risk assessment method can more accurately reflect the dynamic risk level of the operation process compared to simple visual safety factor monitoring. The outcomes of this research can contribute to the identification of safety status and early warning of risks related to personnel, equipment, and environmental factors in emergency repair operations. Moreover, these results can be extended to other operational scenarios, such as oil and gas production stations and long-distance pipeline operations.

Abstract The imprecision inherent in human opinions is not properly modeled by crisp numbers. Other more complex structures like intervals or tuples capture better the imprecision of human assessments. This makes them very useful in decision problems. However, they cannot be easily compared. Despite they grasp better decision-makers inaccuracy, the lack of a natural total order for such structures makes the determination of the best alternative a difficult task. In this contribution, we explore how to obtain new total orders for (ordered) tuples paying special attention to admissible orders (total orders that extend the lattice order). The resulting orders are applied to four-dimensional ordered tuples that represent risk assessments in an imprecise environment. In addition, two case studies involving risk matrices in educational transport and the construction of a metro station are also provided.

The construction sector is a sector that employs many people who have high risk of work accidents, because a lot of work in this sector is possibility carried out by unsafe actions or unsafe conditions. PT. Arto Moro Sentosa is company which operates in general trading, general construction, suppliers, outsourcing, etc., is aware that the business has a high risk of work accidents. The lack of employee awareness will have an impact on the magnitude of the risks that must be borne by the worker and the company. The purpose of this research is determining work accident records for the Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) system, employee risks, and existing improvements at company. By knowing the classification of hazards based on the type of accident, this research uses the Job Safety Analysis (JSA) method, histograms, Pareto diagrams, and cause-and-effect (fish bone) diagrams. Based on the author's observations, company data related to OHS (Occupational Health and Safety) and interviews with the directors, could be obtained a history of work accidents based on the type of accident. Here are ergonomic work accidents (57.89%), physical factor accidents ( 31.58%), chemical factor accidents (5.26%), biological factor accidents (5.26%), and psychological factor accidents (0%). Several recommendation is performed to avoid repeated accident by providing training programs on OHS to workers, paying more attention to OHS supervision, giving sanctions to workers who violate OHS.

One of the most pressing issues in the implementation of construction projects is the extension of planned deadlines, significantly impacting project costs. This situation often arises due to inaccurate estimation of construction durations, which rely on normative values without accounting for factors hindering construction progress. Consequently, this article aims to develop an innovative approach for assessing construction durations, considering specific risk factors and their influence on construction activities. Given the difficulty of determining risk factors and their effects during the design phase using classical probability theory, characterized by unknown probability distributions, it is highlighted that this scenario represents planning and implementation under conditions of non-statistical uncertainty. Therefore, the article proposes an approach utilizing elements of fuzzy set theory, particularly fuzzy rules and linguistic variables, to determine delays in individual construction tasks. The proposed approach involves estimating extensions of construction timelines based on a specified probability level of occurrence for risk events and their impact. Additionally, the article provides a theoretical description of the proposed approach and practical calculation examples, demonstrating that the authors' approach significantly enhances the accuracy of construction timeline forecasts, providing more reliable data for project planning and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents innovative approaches to improving the risk management process in the context of developing a strategy for foreign economic activity of enterprise. To identify risks and choose the optimal strategy for foreign economic activity of enterprises (FEA), economic and mathematical modelling was used using the risk matrix and the criteria of Bayes, Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwitz, Hodge-Lehman. To approbate the results of the study, enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry were selected. According to the theory of games, in order to improve the risk management process, elements of the payment matrix have been applied, which characterize the profit of pharmaceutical enterprises in foreign economic activity. The use of the Hurwitz criterion, which is a criterion of pessimism-optimism, made it possible to choose the optimal strategy for the selected enterprises. The developed matrix of risks of foreign economic activity (strategic, operational, financial and external) for the selection of the optimal strategy of foreign economic activity through the use of economic and mathematical modelling should be used to determine the risks of the greatest impact at different stages of foreign economic activity using the theory of games. The presented matrix of risks of foreign economic activity is built for domestic enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry and is aimed at improving the process of risk management of foreign economic activity, which will enable enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry to predict risks at the early stages of activity and take into account in the general concept of the strategy of foreign economic activity of enterprises. The pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine was chosen for research because it is the most popular in modern conditions, and, according to the results of the analytical review, very high-risk. That is why the use of economic and mathematical modelling for risk calculation allows to optimize the economic behaviour of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises, while providing a reliable basis for making sound strategic decisions in the process of risk management in the context of developing a strategy for foreign economic activity. The risk management process, consisting of 7 stages and 18 steps, has been improved, and innovative tools have been proposed that facilitate the implementation of risk management in the enterprise in the process of developing a foreign trade strategy. The use of economic and mathematical modelling in risk forecasting and the formation of a foreign economic activity strategy will help enterprise managers to significantly increase management efficiency, reduce risks at the stage of planning foreign economic activity. The article improves the risk management process, which consists of 7 stages and 18 steps, and offers innovative tools that facilitate the implementation of risk management in the enterprise in the process of developing a foreign trade strategy. The use of economic and mathematical modelling in risk forecasting and the formation of a foreign economic activity strategy will help enterprise managers to significantly increase management efficiency, reduce risks at the stage of planning foreign economic activity.

The traditional visual tree assessment method is subjective in evaluating tree risks and therefore not effective in precisely detecting internal decay in tree trunk and root systems. To improve the accuracy of street tree risk assessment, a new nondestructive testing method was proposed. This new tree risk assessment method combines different non-destructive testing technologies, such as sonic tomography and ground-penetrating radar, which could significantly increase the accuracy of risk assessment in tree trunks and roots. The method was applied to evaluate the risk of 1,001 street trees in Shanghai's historical feature protection area. The results revealed that despite most street trees having low branch and trunk risk levels, more than one-third had high root risk levels. The risk factors of street trees were mainly in the trunk and root system, with a significant correlation between the street tree risk level and tree cavities, diseases, and insect pests, as well as the depth and range of the root distribution, leaning, and internal decay in trunks. With the help of non-destructive testing and risk assessment analysis, as well as targeted prevention measures, the possibility of street risk damage was largely reduced, including street trees tilting and collapsing during typhoons, etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wonogiri Regency, located in Indonesia, is an area susceptible to various types of natural disasters, such as floods, landslides, and hurricanes, which pose a significant risk to approximately 90% in this area. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the types of potential disasters in Wonogiri and propose effective strategies for disaster mitigation from 2021 to 2025. This study uses a risk matrix to quantify the risks associated with these potential disasters and utilizes House of Risk (HoR) phase 2 methodology to formulate strategies for disaster risk prevention. This comprehensive analysis has shown seven potential disasters for which nine mitigation strategies have been developed. Among these, the top three strategies, considering the effectiveness value and the degree of difficulty (EDRk) value, in order of priority, are “Increasing multi-stakeholder partnerships in disaster management” (EDRk value 176.20); “Strengthening the legal framework for disaster management” (EDRk value 167.40); and “Conducting socialization and education on disaster mitigation” (EDRk value 111.60). Implementing these strategies is expected to strengthen disaster risk reduction (DRR) in regencies, with a focus on prioritizing the most effective measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the reports created at assembly lines, where all components of an aircraft are installed, frequently indicate that errors threaten safety. The proposed methodology in this study evaluates error prediction and risk mitigation to prevent failures and their consequences. The results linked to a typical electrical harness manufacture of a military aircraft estimated reductions of 93% in time and 90% in error during the creation of engineering manufacturing processes using AI techniques. However, traditional risk assessments methods struggle to identify and mitigate errors effectively. Thus, developing an advanced methodology to ensure systems safety is needed. This paper addresses how innovative AI technology solutions can overcome these challenges, mitigate error risks, and enhance safety in aerospace. Technologies, such as artificial intelligence, predictive algorithms, machine learning, and automation, can play a key role in enhancing safety. The aim of this study is to develop a model that considers the factors that can potentially contribute to error creation, through an artificial intelligence (AI) approach. The specific AI techniques used such as support vector machine, random forest, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor, and XGBoost (Python 3.8.5) show good performance for use in error mitigation. We have compared the modeled values obtained in this study with the experimental ones. The results confirm that the best metrics are obtained by using support vector machine and logistic regression. The smallest deviation between the measured and modeled values for these AI methods do not exceed 5%. Furthermore, using advancements in machine learning methods can enhance error mitigation in aerospace. The use of AutoML can play a key role in automatically finding an appropriate model which provides the best performance metrics and therefore the most reliable forecast for data prediction and error mitigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents innovative approaches to improving the risk management process in the context of developing a strategy for foreign economic activity of enterprise. To identify risks and choose the optimal strategy for foreign economic activity of enterprises (FEA), economic and mathematical modelling was used using the risk matrix and the criteria of Bayes, Laplace, Wald, Savage, Hurwitz, Hodge-Lehman. To approbate the results of the study, enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry were selected. According to the theory of games, in order to improve the risk management process, elements of the payment matrix have been applied, which characterize the profit of pharmaceutical enterprises in foreign economic activity. The use of the Hurwitz criterion, which is a criterion of pessimism-optimism, made it possible to choose the optimal strategy for the selected enterprises. The developed matrix of risks of foreign economic activity (strategic, operational, financial and external) for the selection of the optimal strategy of foreign economic activity through the use of economic and mathematical modelling should be used to determine the risks of the greatest impact at different stages of foreign economic activity using the theory of games. The presented matrix of risks of foreign economic activity is built for domestic enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry and is aimed at improving the process of risk management of foreign economic activity, which will enable enterprises of the pharmaceutical industry to predict risks at the early stages of activity and take into account in the general concept of the strategy of foreign economic activity of enterprises. The pharmaceutical industry of Ukraine was chosen for research because it is the most popular in modern conditions, and, according to the results of the analytical review, very high-risk. That is why the use of economic and mathematical modelling for risk calculation allows to optimize the economic behaviour of domestic pharmaceutical enterprises, while providing a reliable basis for making sound strategic decisions in the process of risk management in the context of developing a strategy for foreign economic activity. The risk management process, consisting of 7 stages and 18 steps, has been improved, and innovative tools have been proposed that facilitate the implementation of risk management in the enterprise in the process of developing a foreign trade strategy. The use of economic and mathematical modelling in risk forecasting and the formation of a foreign economic activity strategy will help enterprise managers to significantly increase management efficiency, reduce risks at the stage of planning foreign economic activity. The article improves the risk management process, which consists of 7 stages and 18 steps, and offers innovative tools that facilitate the implementation of risk management in the enterprise in the process of developing a foreign trade strategy. The use of economic and mathematical modelling in risk forecasting and the formation of a foreign economic activity strategy will help enterprise managers to significantly increase management efficiency, reduce risks at the stage of planning foreign economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionRisk assessment and management in companies plays a significant role in the prevention section of any field. In the field of Occupational Health and Safety (OHS), its inconsistent or incorrect application has a direct impact on the life and health of employees. In some companies, even today, it is not properly implemented and adequate procedures and methods are not used. The article discusses the development of a step-by-step procedure for risk assessment in industrial environments in the area of OHS.MethodsMain parts of the model and its steps present the partial results of a survey conducted on a sample of 500 small and micro enterprises in the field of risk assessment and the systematic procedure developed following the main survey results. The survey covered only enterprises located in the construction, manufacturing, transport and storage and agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors, which is also a significant statistical feature. Within the structure of respondents, statistical features such as: size of enterprise, sector, region by work are identified. Only enterprises with size by number of employees - micro enterprises from 1 to 9 employees and small enterprises from 10 to 49 employees - were included for the survey.ResultsNew elements of the methods were integrated into the developed systematic procedure, which was subsequently validated in 7 plants of the one company on the same position. The application of the developed model was verified by an expert group consisting of 7 members, an odd number, and the developed checklists and risk register were applied. On the basis of the verification, the model, checklist and risk register were corrected. In addition, the scoring method and the risk matrix were also used, but they did not contain new elements.DiscusionThe procedure is still in use today and employees have been trained to use it. On the basis of the developed methodology and the Checklist, the procedure has been transposed into the European OiRA tool and can be used by companies throughout the European Union.

Wonogiri Regency, located in Indonesia, is an area susceptible to various types of natural disasters, such as floods, landslides, and hurricanes, which pose a significant risk to approximately 90% in this area. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the types of potential disasters in Wonogiri and propose effective strategies for disaster mitigation from 2021 to 2025. This study uses a risk matrix to quantify the risks associated with these potential disasters and utilizes House of Risk (HoR) phase 2 methodology to formulate strategies for disaster risk prevention. This comprehensive analysis has shown seven potential disasters for which nine mitigation strategies have been developed. Among these, the top three strategies, considering the effectiveness value and the degree of difficulty (EDRk) value, in order of priority, are “Increasing multi-stakeholder partnerships in disaster management” (EDRk value 176.20); “Strengthening the legal framework for disaster management” (EDRk value 167.40); and “Conducting socialization and education on disaster mitigation” (EDRk value 111.60). Implementing these strategies is expected to strengthen disaster risk reduction (DRR) in regencies, with a focus on prioritizing the most effective measures.

Acque Bresciane is a public company that manages the integrated water cycle for more than 580,000 inhabitants in the Province of Brescia, in the north of Italy, providing drinking water, waste water treatment, and sewer systems. Drinking water systems are supplied with different types of groundwater, springs, and surface water sources (from lakes and rivers) whose availability and quality can be affected by climate change events. A multidisciplinary team, in collaboration with the University of Milano Bicocca, developed a specific Water Safety Plan (WSP) risk matrix focusing on the evaluation of climate-related hazardous events and calculation of their likelihood of occurrence, also using thematic maps. Moreover, to reduce the residual risks, in the risk matrix, possible control measures are suggested, such as the activation of an emergency plan, the use of other water sources, storage tanks, and interconnection with other water distribution networks. This work shows a simple and effective tool that can be applied by drinking water utilities to evaluate climate-related catchment risks, using a WSP risk matrix, thematic maps, and possible control measures to reduce risks in terms of water quality and availability and to respond with resilience to changes. HIGHLIGHTS A risk assessment tool was developed to evaluate climate-related hazardous events in WSPs.; Three catchment matrices were developed for wells, springs, and surface waters.; Control measures were suggested to reduce the residual risks of climate change-related events.; The matrices can be replicated for all drinking water supply systems.; This simple and effective tool can be applied by all drinking water utilities.;

The changing and intensifying landscape of global, national, and local disaster risks, driven by socio-political, environmental, and technological shifts, underscores the critical need for risk assessment by international agencies and governments. The Risk Matrix, introduced in 1995, has been widely used for risk assessment in different contexts, lauded for its simplicity and effectiveness. This model relies on the core risk components of consequence and likelihood, making it a favored tool for risk managers. To enhance the precision of risk assessment, various adaptations and extensions of the risk matrix have emerged; while some indirectly address resilience aspects, none explicitly integrate resilience into the matrix. This paper explores the risk matrix and its extensions, advocating for the inclusion of resilience in risk assessment. It introduces an empirical approach to quantify resilience, through a survey targeting small and medium-sized businesses in Southern Ontario, Canada. By developing two types of risk matrices—one with resilience considerations and one without—our work demonstrates how resilience alters risk prioritization, highlighting the importance of preparedness. This research underscores the pivotal role of resilience in risk assessment and urges its explicit integration into risk matrices to enhance accuracy and efficacy. Through practical examples and empirical data, the paper builds a compelling case for the central role of resilience in modern risk assessment practices.

The world grapples with immediate crises like COVID-19, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, floods, droughts and wildfires. However, a longer-term crisis looms due to humanity's overstepping of planetary boundaries and its disruptive consequences. Growing awareness of the potential collapse of societies due to planetary boundary violations has prompted increased attention in the scientific literature. In the water sector, where infrastructure built today might persist during a future collapse, we must therefore ask ourselves how a (basic) level of water supply can be maintained in a collapsing society. This paper explores this question and proposes research directions to address it in the short to medium term. Despite the seeming remoteness of a societal collapse scenario, it is imperative to incorporate it urgently into water infrastructure research and planning. HIGHLIGHTS Environmentally induced societal collapse is an ignored risk for the water sector.; Research into potential consequences and strategies for deep adaptation are needed.; A four-stranded approach for this research is proposed, mirroring a prior one for research on worst-case climate change and systemic risks.;

The article discusses the key issues of internal control measures when choosing a counterparty during the formation of an innovative economy. The purpose of the study is to develop indicators characterizing the counterparty, as well as an innovative risk matrix used when choosing a counterparty and allowing to identify risks and visually represent the characteristics of the counterparty. To achieve this goal of the article, the following tasks were solved: indicators of economic stability and information support used when choosing a counterparty were proposed; An innovative risk matrix and risk assessment criteria have been developed that allow the organization to objectively assess the counterparty and conclude contracts on the principles of economic validity, reliability and integrity, significantly reducing economic risks. As a result of the conducted research, innovative methods of assessing the counterparty are proposed, which provide an opportunity to obtain its objective characteristics before concluding a business agreement, as well as to rank tax risks. The article uses the methods of a systematic approach, analysis and synthesis, as well as the method of expert assessments.

The traditional visual tree assessment method is subjective in evaluating tree risks and therefore not effective in precisely detecting internal decay in tree trunk and root systems. To improve the accuracy of street tree risk assessment, a new nondestructive testing method was proposed. This new tree risk assessment method combines different non-destructive testing technologies, such as sonic tomography and ground-penetrating radar, which could significantly increase the accuracy of risk assessment in tree trunks and roots. The method was applied to evaluate the risk of 1,001 street trees in Shanghai’s historical feature protection area. The results revealed that despite most street trees having low branch and trunk risk levels, more than one-third had high root risk levels. The risk factors of street trees were mainly in the trunk and root system, with a significant correlation between the street tree risk level and tree cavities, diseases, and insect pests, as well as the depth and range of the root distribution, leaning, and internal decay in trunks. With the help of non-destructive testing and risk assessment analysis, as well as targeted prevention measures, the possibility of street risk damage was largely reduced, including street trees tilting and collapsing during typhoons, etc.

Acque Bresciane is a public company that manages the integrated water cycle for more than 580,000 inhabitants in the Province of Brescia, in the north of Italy, providing drinking water, waste water treatment, and sewer systems. Drinking water systems are supplied with different types of groundwater, springs, and surface water sources (from lakes and rivers) whose availability and quality can be affected by climate change events. A multidisciplinary team, in collaboration with the University of Milano Bicocca, developed a specific Water Safety Plan (WSP) risk matrix focusing on the evaluation of climate-related hazardous events and calculation of their likelihood of occurrence, also using thematic maps. Moreover, to reduce the residual risks, in the risk matrix, possible control measures are suggested, such as the activation of an emergency plan, the use of other water sources, storage tanks, and interconnection with other water distribution networks. This work shows a simple and effective tool that can be applied by drinking water utilities to evaluate climate-related catchment risks, using a WSP risk matrix, thematic maps, and possible control measures to reduce risks in terms of water quality and availability and to respond with resilience to changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of GeSec: Revista de Gestao e Secretariado is the property of Sindicato das Secretarias e Secretarios do Estado de Sao Paulo (SINSESP) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Railway Investigation & Surveying is the property of Railway Investigation & Surveying Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

ObjectiveTo improve the prediction and early warning ability of the customs supervision department on the safety risk of imported alcohol， ensure food safety in China， and accelerate the efficiency of customs clearance， a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model of imported alcohol safety risk based on analytic hierarchy process and risk matrix was constructed.MethodsBased on the expert investigation results， the weight of each index was determined using the analytic hierarchy process， and the fuzzy membership matrices were obtained using the risk matrix. Subsequently， the risk value of each index was obtained using a fuzzy comprehensive algorithm. Simultaneously， a dynamic adjustment factor was introduced to finally realize the risk grade evaluation of specific batches of imported alcohol.ResultsThe safety risk level of imported alcohol for China was medium. Among the analyzed items， methanol had the highest risk value （82.917）， while natamycin had the lowest risk value （52.083）.ConclusionThe recommended detection items can be output by the established model according to the overall risk level of imported alcohol and the risk value of detection items. The model has high reliability and can provide a reference for the safety risk assessment and management of imported food.

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and their installation are essential to determine a general practice for specialized risk assessment, which reduces the danger linked and the solutions to avoid those hazards, which call mitigation strategies. This paper aims to present the risk assessment and mitigation strategies for large-scale Solar PV systems in developing countries. To achieve this, complaints-related data has been collected from well-known companies providing Solar PV to industrial and residential consumers. This paper presents insights on the repetitive complaints, potential risks identified, and their severity along with probability. Further, risk itigation strategies to resolve these complaints timely and significantly are listed by industry experts. Overall, the study briefed each risk, its detail, and classified the complaints in three different companies. industry experts. Overall, the study briefed each risk, its detail, and classified the complaints in three different companies.

This study first defined the concept of the water–energy–food nexus system risk (WEF-R). Then, the WEF-R evaluation index system was established from three aspects: stability, coordination, and sustainability subsystems. Finally, the set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model was used to evaluate the risk levels of subsystems, and the risk matrix was applied to assess provincial WEF-R levels in China from 2009 to 2018. The results showed that the stability subsystem had the greatest influence on provincial WEF-R, followed by the sustainability subsystem. The provinces with a higher risk of the stability subsystem and lower risk of the sustainability subsystem were mainly centralized in southeast coastal and central regions, which were consistent with the provinces with better socio-economic development. The provinces with lower risk of the stability subsystem and higher risk of the sustainability subsystem were mainly concentrated in northwest regions, which correspond with the provinces with better natural resources endowment but lower socio-economic development. As for the temporal evolution of risk levels, the risk levels of the coordination and sustainability subsystems showed downward trends during the study period, while the risk level of the stability subsystem displayed a small fluctuation, and the provincial WEF-R level in China presented a decreasing trend. HIGHLIGHTS The water–energy–food nexus system risk (WEF-R) was defined as internal, nexus, and external risks.; The WEF-R evaluation index system was established from three aspects: stability, coordination, and sustainability subsystems.; Set pair analysis-variable fuzzy set model and risk matrix were applied to assess the risk levels of subsystems and the water–energy–food nexus system.; Provincial WEF-R in China presented a decreasing trend.;

Objective To explore the risk and the risk estimation matrix of hearing loss occurrence using the theory of risk assessment of hearing loss based on measuring personal dose of noise and to investigate the related risk factors for providing scientific basis for the intervention measures of noise hazard in the main workplaces of aircraft manufacturing industry. Methods A total of 48 employees with high noise exposure positions from 10 jobs among three workplaces in an aircraft manufacturing industry were selected as subjects using simple random sampling method according to national standards. Based on personal dose measurement, assessment and occupational health field survey, R statistical software package was used to screen risk factors for hearing loss. Age - related hearing threshold level estimation, NIPTS estimation, age and noise - related hearing threshold level (HTLAN) estimation and hearing were operated for getting loss risk calculation and construction and noise - induced occupational hearing loss risk assessment. Results The noise exposure intensity of 48 workers from ten jobs in three workplaces ranged from 81. 8 dB(A) to 108. 3dB( A), and the individual noise exceeding standard rate upped to 91. 7%. The higher the intensity of noise exposure had, the faster the risk of hearing loss increased. The majority of new employees wore noise reduction rating (Noise Reduction Rating, NRR =24dB) earplugs, and the risk of hearing loss increased rapidly with a time lag, and the risk of hearing loss could still be accepted after 20 years of continuous work; Wearing noise resistant earplugs (NRR = 24dB) and equipped with noise resistant earmuffs (NRR =27dB) did not show a significant change in the risk of hearing loss. The short - term exposure dose to noise and gender were fixed factors, and the current risk of hearing loss was only related to age and length of service. In the age group 20 -30 years old and the length of service 1-5 year, the risk were acceptable risk (56. 2% ), moderate risk (22. 9% ), high risk ( 15. 0% ), higher risk (5. 2% ), and extremely high risk (0.1%), respectively. Conclusion Aircraft manufacturing industry also has high noise hazard intensity and over - standard rate. Employees wearing hearing protectors can effectively reduce the actual noise exposure intensity, but the protection efficiency can not cover all noise exposure positions. The risk of hearing loss is different and the time of high risk is different under different personal hearing protection. By using age, sex, length of service and noise intensity, the risk estimation matrix of optimized hearing loss in aircraft manufacturing can be obtained. Combining with risk grade assessment, the risk of hearing loss in noise exposed population under certain conditions can be realized, and the purpose of scientific prediction and management can be achieved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Biomechanical risks are applications of repetitive moves, forces and postures that an individual adopts when carrying out a specific activity with the probability of suffering an incident, accident or occupational disease. Objective: To identify the biomechanical risks associated with musculoskeletal disorders in surgical instrumentators who work in sterilization centers in 5 health institutions in Barranquilla. Method: A descriptive study waas conducted with participation of 29 surgical instrumentators answering Kourinka's Nordic questionnaire, based on corresponding ethical principles. Results: 35% of those surveyed reported discomfort in the wrist, 32% discomfort in the dorsolumbar region, 21% experienced discomfort in the neck, and 14% experienced some type of discomfort or pain in the elbow or forearm. The danger and risk assessment matrix in two of the five institutions showed that the risk is very high in the processes of reception, preparation, packaging, sterilization, storage and delivery. Conclusions: The risks identified were: cargo handling affecting the lumbar area, forced postures in packaging and sterilization activities generating discomfort in the wrist. Diseases such as epicondylitis, foot pain, telangiectasia and carpal tunnel syndrome were evident. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The fatigue life of ship structures is typically based on deterministic methods in which underlying uncertainties are only implicitly taken into account and not explicitly reflected. Guidance for a probabilistic assessment is provided in class documents, but the methodology is too time consuming to apply in design practice. This paper proposes a novel approach based on DNV-CG-0129 to incorporate uncertainties and consequences explicitly. Using a probabilistic model, tailored deterministic FAT classes are derived to be applied in design practice. A tailored FAT class should be selected based on an acceptable probability of failure related to the severity of the consequences of a failure for the ship. Results show that tailored FAT classes are strongly dependent on the uncertainties provided as input when using the calculation method of DNV-CG-0129. This emphasizes the need for careful consideration and specification of the uncertainties. Furthermore, application of the First Order Reliability Method for a sensitivity study shows that the global model uncertainty is governing over other uncertainties considered in DNV-CG-0129. The proposed approach enables a low-effort and transparent probabilistic-based method, leading to optimized and improved designs due to reduction of overdimensioning in non-critical areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Quality control (QC) is performed routinely through professional guidelines. However, the recommended QC frequency may not be optimal among different institutional settings. Here we propose a novel method for determining the optimal QC frequency using risk matrix (RM) analysis. Methods and materials: A newly installed Magnetic Resonance linac (MR‐linac) was chosen as the testing platform and six routine QC items were investigated. Failures of these QC items can adversely affect treatment outcome for the patient. Accordingly, each QC item with its assigned frequency forms a unique failure mode (FM). Using FM‐effect analysis (FMEA), the severity (S), occurrence (O), and detection (D) of each FM was obtained. Next, S and D based on RM was used to determine the appropriate QC frequency. Finally, the performance of new frequency for each QC item was evaluated using the metric E = O/D. Results: One new QC frequency was the same as the old frequency, two new QC frequencies were less than the old ones, and three new QC frequencies were higher than the old ones. For six QC items, E values at the new frequencies were not less than their values at the old frequencies. This indicates that the risk of machine failure is reduced at the new QC frequencies. Conclusions: The application of RM analysis provides a useful tool for determining the optimal frequencies for routine linac QC. This study demonstrated that linac QC can be performed in a way that maintains high performance of the treatment machine in a radiotherapy clinic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The presented article deals with the use and evaluation of individual risks of work in the environment of Slovak mining company. The mining company is also a manufacturing company. The company mines the raw material and the final product (clinker). The main goal of the article is to monitor the incidence of accidents over the last 10 years, to analyse the group of risks that have a significant impact on accidents in mining companies and to evaluate them. The Risk Matrix, shows the relationship between estimated consequences and probability of risks formation. The next step is to use the workplace Risk Assessment Method to define acceptable risks and minimize the impact on workers. Another method we used is the Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) model. The output of the FTA model is the creation of a faulty tree, which resulted in the individual traumatized accidents that resulted in the definition of the resulting risk - namely a load injury.

The decommissioning project of a nuclear facility is a large-scale process that is expected to take about 15 years or longer. The range of risks to be considered is large and complex, then, it is expected that various risks will arise in decision-making by area during the project. Therefore, in this study, the risk family derived from the Decommissioning Risk Management (DRiMa) project was reconstructed into a decommissioning project risk profile suitable for the Kori Unit 1. Two criteria of uncertainty and importance are considered in order to prioritize the selected 26 risks of decommissioning project. The uncertainty is scored according to the relevant laws and decommissioning plan preparation guidelines, and the project importance is scored according to the degree to which it primarily affects the triple constraints of the project. The results of risks are divided into high, medium, and low. Among them, 10 risks are identified as medium level and 16 risks are identified as low level. 10 risks, which are medium levels, are classified in five categories: End state of decommissioning project, Management of waste and materials, Decommissioning strategy and technology, Legal and regulatory framework, and Safety. This study is a preliminary assessment of the risk of the decommissioning project that could be considered in the preparation stage. Therefore, we expect that the project risks considered in this study can be used as an initial data for reevaluation by reflecting the detail project progress in future studies.

The article presents a proposal for the use of a risk matrix for assessing the safety of the implementation of rail freight transport. The starting point for considerations related to risk assessment is the conditions arising from the business need and the obligation of entities operating in the railway market to ensure the safety of the implementation of freight tasks. The authors presented selected literature within the framework of the issues discussed. The layers of risk assessment, which include the analytical layer, the decision layer and the elimination layer, indicate the possibility of considering the problem of risk assessment from different perspectives. The identification of direct causes and consequences of undesirable events during the implementation of rail freight transport was also made. The article describes one of the methods of risk management which is the risk matrix. The authors stressed that the construction of a risk matrix should be preceded by an analysis of the factors that affect the safety of rail transportation. This is possible by determining their probability of occurrence and setting values for the consequences of adverse events. The article divides the assignment of levels of adverse events to a five-level risk matrix (slight, low, medium, high, very high). Also presented is a case study considering the risk assessment of rail freight transport in Poland using the risk matrix method for railway accidents in the area of railway lines. Thanks to the development of the risk matrix, a risk management strategy can be used. The last part of the article is a summary, which highlights the possibility of applying the presented approach to risk assessment among entities operating in the rail transport market.

Accidents are common in the petroleum industry. The risk of accidents can be easily minimized by understanding the harm early in the production system. This study presents a perception-based risk and safety analysis of petroleum production systems. Data were collected from three fields operated by Sylhet Gas Fields Limited in Bangladesh. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) software was used to analyze the data. The results were then subjected to a frequency analysis, an analysis of variance (ANOVA), and a reliability analysis. The frequency analysis indicated the overall safety situation, and the ANOVA models and reliability analysis substantiated the results. A chi-squared test indicated the association between the datasets. The outcomes of the risk matrix indicated various risk levels, such as low, moderate, and high. According to the implicit risks, necessary measures were recommended for the industry's future.

Abstract This paper presents the development of a tool to perform risk assessment for deep geothermal projects. The tool is aimed at project developers to help them present their project to local authority, decision-makers and financers so they can highlight how they take into account risks and consider mitigation measures to minimize them. The main criteria for this tool are the simplicity of use, the quality of presentation and flexibility. It is based on results from the H2020 GEORISK project that identified risks that apply to geothermal projects and proposed insurance schemes all over Europe. A characteristic of this tool is that it considers all the categories of risks that a project may face, including geological, technical, environmental risks as well as risks related to the social, economic and political contexts. The tool can be customized: selection of risks in a list that can be completed, adaptable rating scheme for risk analysis, possibility to choose the best display for results depending on the user needs. Two case applications are presented, one in the Paris Basin considering a doublet targeting the Upper Trias, a geological layer that presents some technical challenges; and one in the Upper Rhine graben targeting a fault zone, where the risk of induced seismicity must be carefully considered. A posteriori risk assessment highlights the main issues with these types of projects, and the comparison between the two cases emphasizes the flexibility of the tool, as well as, the different ways to present the results depending on the objective of the analyses.

The Infectious Hypodermal and Hematopoietic Necrosis virus has been responsible in the last 30 years for the decrease in production and the low survival of some species of farmed penaeid shrimp. Due to its increase in recent years, this illness is now the subject of intense debates and investigations on a global scale. Although Cuba is not affected by the disease, there are great concerns on the part of the competent authorities as regards the movements in and out of their country of those living and refrigerated organisms. The present study was carried out to determine specific biosafety lines for this virus in Penaeus vannamei shrimp farming. Although matrix methods are common in biological risk analysis, the three-dimensional risk matrix is more comprehensive because it includes the role of defenses in the accidental sequences that represent the introduction and disease spread. To apply the method, the code SECUREMR-FMEA was used. The results identify the most contributing risks for shrimp farming in the Cuban scenario based on the degradation of defenses, which characterize good practices in an ideal case, as well as describe the most important defense measures in such conditions. The use of this method and its results constitute a novelty in the field of biosafety research. The study assists in developing a specialized biosafety strategy for this shrimp disease, which poses a significant financial danger to this productive region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Safety is the priority of the aviation industry that requires continuous support and improvement. While the Safety Management Systems (SMS) is mandatory for the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Federal Aviation Regulation (FAR) Part 121 air carriers and Part 139 airports in the United States, SMS remains optional to General Aviation (GA) due to various reasons including limited budget and manpower associated with technologies. This paper aims to promote the adoption of MATLAB® to develop a low-cost Risk Assessment Matrix of Operational Safety (RAMOS) (risk calculation and control) for GA operators. A case is presented to demonstrate the application of MATLAB® for the safety committee's usage when going through risk assessment, control options, and decision-making via a computer, tablet, or smartphone. A future comprehensive risk management toolkit can be expected with the introduction of RAMOS using MATLAB®. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar photovoltaic (PV) systems and their installation are essential to determine a general practice for specialized risk assessment, which reduces the danger linked and the solutions to avoid those hazards, which call mitigation strategies. This paper aims to present the risk assessment and mitigation strategies for large-scale Solar PV systems in developing countries. To achieve this, complaints-related data has been collected from well-known companies providing Solar PV to industrial and residential consumers. This paper presents insights on the repetitive complaints, potential risks identified, and their severity along with probability. Further, risk mitigation strategies to resolve these complaints timely and significantly are listed by industry experts. Overall, the study briefed each risk, its detail, and classified the complaints in three different companies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many of the reports created at assembly lines, where all components of an aircraft are installed, frequently indicate that errors threaten safety. The proposed methodology in this study evaluates error prediction and risk mitigation to prevent failures and their consequences. The results linked to a typical electrical harness manufacture of a military aircraft estimated reductions of 93% in time and 90% in error during the creation of engineering manufacturing processes using AI techniques. However, traditional risk assessments methods struggle to identify and mitigate errors effectively. Thus, developing an advanced methodology to ensure systems safety is needed. This paper addresses how innovative AI technology solutions can overcome these challenges, mitigate error risks, and enhance safety in aerospace. Technologies, such as artificial intelligence, predictive algorithms, machine learning, and automation, can play a key role in enhancing safety. The aim of this study is to develop a model that considers the factors that can potentially contribute to error creation, through an artificial intelligence (AI) approach. The specific AI techniques used such as support vector machine, random forest, logistic regression, K-nearest neighbor, and XGBoost (Python 3.8.5) show good performance for use in error mitigation. We have compared the modeled values obtained in this study with the experimental ones. The results confirm that the best metrics are obtained by using support vector machine and logistic regression. The smallest deviation between the measured and modeled values for these AI methods do not exceed 5%. Furthermore, using advancements in machine learning methods can enhance error mitigation in aerospace. The use of AutoML can play a key role in automatically finding an appropriate model which provides the best performance metrics and therefore the most reliable forecast for data prediction and error mitigation.

One of the most pressing issues in the implementation of construction projects is the extension of planned deadlines, significantly impacting project costs. This situation often arises due to inaccurate estimation of construction durations, which rely on normative values without accounting for factors hindering construction progress. Consequently, this article aims to develop an innovative approach for assessing construction durations, considering specific risk factors and their influence on construction activities. Given the difficulty of determining risk factors and their effects during the design phase using classical probability theory, characterized by unknown probability distributions, it is highlighted that this scenario represents planning and implementation under conditions of non-statistical uncertainty. Therefore, the article proposes an approach utilizing elements of fuzzy set theory, particularly fuzzy rules and linguistic variables, to determine delays in individual construction tasks. The proposed approach involves estimating extensions of construction timelines based on a specified probability level of occurrence for risk events and their impact. Additionally, the article provides a theoretical description of the proposed approach and practical calculation examples, demonstrating that the authors’ approach significantly enhances the accuracy of construction timeline forecasts, providing more reliable data for project planning and management.

Image-guided interventional procedures have become one of the medical applications that produces the highest doses of radiation for both the patient and the personnel involved in it. Safety assessment was applied to a generic service where image-guided interventional procedures was carried, using the semi-quantitative method of risk matrix, implemented in the Cuban SECURE-MR-FMEA code. The process map was prepared, identifying 6 stages with 76 accidental sequences. Values showed that the first screening for the developed model reports 45 % of high risks, 42% and 13 % of moderate and low risks, and once the number of controllers increased, high risks decrease to 11 % and there is an increase in moderate and low risks of 54 % and 35 % respectively. These results stress the importance of using all necessary measures for the protection of the public, patients and occupationally exposed workers.

With the rapidly increasing demands of e-government systems in smart cities, a myriad of challenges and issues are required to be addressed. Among them, security is one of the prime concerns. To this end, we analyze different e-government systems and find that an e-government system built with container-based technology is endowed with many features. In addition, overhauling the architecture of container-technology-driven e-government systems, we observe that securing an e-government system demands quantifying security issues (vulnerabilities, threats, attacks, and risks) and the related countermeasures. Notably, we find that the Attack Tree and Attack–Defense Tree methods are state-of-the-art approaches in these aspects. Consequently, in this paper, we work on quantifying the security attributes, measures, and metrics of an e-government system using Attack Trees and Attack–Defense Trees—in this context, we build a working prototype of an e-government system aligned with the United Kingdom (UK) government portal, which is in line with our research scope. In particular, we propose a novel measure to quantify the probability of attack success using a risk matrix and normal distribution. The probabilistic analysis distinguishes the attack and defense levels more intuitively in e-government systems. Moreover, it infers the importance of enhancing security in e-government systems. In particular, the analysis shows that an e-government system is fairly unsafe with a 99 % probability of being subject to attacks, and even with a defense mechanism, the probability of attack lies around 97 % , which directs us to pay close attention to e-government security. In sum, our implications can serve as a benchmark for evaluation for governments to determine the next steps in consolidating e-government system security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the issues in urban areas such as DI Yogyakarta province is air pollution. The pollution level is high, as shown by the quality index value of about 85.25 in 2019. Vehicle emissions are the most significant source of this pollution in urban areas and can be decreased by using fuel with minimum carbon emission. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is an environmentally friendly fuel. However, a safety study is required because CNG is stored under high pressure. Therefore, this research aims to analyze the risk of using CNG in the Trans Jogja bus. The research method collects secondary data and then processes them using FTA, ETA, ALOHA software, and a risk matrix. The result shows that the risk value for CNG usage in the Trans Jogja bus is low to a moderate level or acceptable.

Risk management is an important part of an organisation’s internal controls and needs to be adjusted in response to changes in the external environment. In this article the problem of risk prevention and loss reduction in the organisation’s internal control system has been solved in the current environment. The existing risks were analysed and described, classification of external and internal risks was developed and methodology of risk tolerance and possibility of diversification was proposed. It was proved that the proposed risk matrix gives a clear picture of risky operations and helps organisations to implement response measures, optimising the risks. The proposed methodology is tested in a specific organisation. The study uses the methods of systematic approach, analysis and synthesis, abstraction and generalisation.

The risk matrix can be discovered by first identifying the hazards at the work stages. The cleaning service occupation has a risk of hazards during work. Cleaning service occupation becomes a job which often intersects with biological, ergonomic, physical, chemical and psychological hazards. If these hazards are not handled properly, they can cause work accidents, illness and even fatality. Identifying hazards at work is the initial stage before conducting risk assessment and mapping. The study aims to map the level of risk in the cleaning service occupation. The study used a quantitative analytical method with an observational approach. Data was collected by doing observation and filling out Hazard Identification Risk Assessment (HIRA) form. The result reveals several levels of risk appearing in the risk matrix for cleaning service employees. Most of the risk matrix levels seen in the cleaning service occupation are "high risk", and "moderate risk" appears in a small percentage. According to the result, the recommended actions are controlling the hazard through repairing work tools followingthe physiology of cleaning service workers, providing periodic recess on each work shift, socializing regarding the nature and types of materials and how to handle chemicals properly, and providing appropriate PPE facilities for the type of activity occupation.