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Unlike the linear model of economic development, which is based on taking resources from nature, turning them into a finished product and using that product as the final stage of the life cycle of resources, without taking into account the degree of pollution they cause, there is a so-called circular model. The circular model of the economy is an alternative to the linear model. This means that with the circular model, the use of the finished product does not represent the last phase of the life cycle of the resource, but that used product, through the application of various processes, serves as a resource in further production. The main goal of the circular economic model is to reduce waste and pollution, but also to increase the productivity of resources. Longer use of products, machines, and other fixed assets results in higher productivity of the resources that make up their basic input. One of the main goals of the circular economy is the elimination or at least reduction of pollution, and one of the biggest pollutants is the excessive emission of carbon dioxide, whose chemical formula is 〖CO〗2. For this reason, the authors of this research recognized this area as crucial for further economic development. By applying various processes and procedures in developed countries, there was a decrease in the amount of 〖CO〗2emissions, while at the same time there was no decrease in economic activities and production in the economies of those countries, but quite the opposite, at the same time there was an increase in the gross national product (GDP). Serbia should use these countries as an example and, using the good practice of developed countries, start as soon as possible with a more extensive transition from a linear to a circular model of economic development, i.e. bring a series of measures, procedures, laws as soon as possible in order to reduce the emission of 〖CO〗2. In accordance with this, the logical conclusion would be that the scientific goal of this research work is to identify the role of reducing 〖CO〗2 emissions as an important potential for the transition from a linear to a circular model of economic development, without jeopardizing the level of real GDP.

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998–2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth.

Realisation of specialisation in areas dominated by technological production structure and the technological level of exported goods are essential determinants of macroeconomic performance. Therefore, the export structure and technological level of exported goods are highly significant. In this study, the relationship between real GDP and exports of goods produced in BRICS-T countries with low, medium, and high levels of skill and technology is investigated. In the panel data analysis using data for the period 1995-2020, the cointegration relationship between the variables was examined, and it was concluded that there is no long-run relationship between real GDP and goods produced in labour-resource intensive, low, medium, and high skill and technology levels of countries. In addition, a causality test using Dumitrescu and Hurlin's (2012) linear heterogeneous model was carried out. The test results showed a unidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and goods with low and high skill and technology but a bidirectional causality relationship between real GDP and labour-resource-intensive goods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study is to identify the causal relationship between fishery GDP and the economic growth of Oman. The study analyzes the contribution of fishery production, licenses issued, and fishery exports to the GDP of the fishery sector. The time series data on fishery production, GDP, license issued, and volume of exports for the period of 1998-2021 has been used in this study. The VAR lag selection criterion, ADF unit root test, pairwise Granger causality, ordinary least squares method, and vector autoregression lag order model have been used as tools for analyses. The finding states that there is a unidirectional relationship between GDPF2 (GDP fishery in second order) and GDPT (Real GDP of the country). The past value of GDPT can predict the value of GDPF2, and there exists a causal relationship (independence) between the real gross domestic product of the country and fishery production. The study also found that, though GDPF2 is mostly affected by fishery production, the number of licenses issued, and the volume of exports have no significant impact on GDP. It has been recommended that the government should focus on its export and licensing policies to improve the fishing industry's proportionate share of economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the impact of oil price fluctuations on food prices in Saudi Arabia between 1979 and 2020 using Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) methodology. The study employs Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Phillips Perron (PP) tests to determine the integration order of the variables and Bounds testing to confirm the existence of long run cointegration relationships between each variable. The results indicate that oil shocks influence food prices through several mechanisms. Firstly, the cost of energy increases due to the rise in oil prices, affecting the agricultural commodity market, including farm equipment, food processing, packaging, and distribution costs. Secondly, the demand for agricultural commodities to produce biofuels affects food availability and thus food prices. Thirdly, as an oil-based economy, the oil price shock affects food prices through its impact on government spending, which affects aggregate demand and liquidity. Therefore, Saudi Arabia should adopt appropriate policies to mitigate the impact of oil price shocks on food prices, including investing in renewable energy sources, diversifying its economy, and improving food production and supply chain efficiency. Additionally, implementing appropriate fiscal policies to ensure sufficient budget allocation for food support programs is crucial. However, Investing in groundwater exploration can contribute significantly to the development of Saudi agriculture and to gradually achieving food self-sufficiency.

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks' asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers' financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks' asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The existing wage imbalances, low rates of income growth, and their high differentiation have a negative impact on the socio-economic development of Russia, which determines the relevance of this study. The purpose of this work is to analyze the impact of economic growth rates in Russia on the dynamics of per capita income of the population and inequality in its distribution. Methods. Methods of analysis, synthesis, and comparison were used. The main method of research is the method of statistical analysis based on the requirements of an objective and comprehensive analysis of the income of the population. Results and conclusions. Statistical data for the period from 2000 to 2020 are analyzed, showing the growth in the increasing inequality in the distribution of monetary incomes of the population by the amount of per capita monetary income in the country as a whole for the analyzed period. The relationship between the rates of economic growth and the level of differentiation of the population by income is statistically determined. The reasons for this process in Russia are highlighted. After analyzing the degree of differentiation by a set of indicators, among which the main ones were the fund ratio and the Gini coefficient, it was found that economic growth alone does not solve the problem of economic inequality. During the analyzed period, high rates of economic growth in Russia were accompanied by increased differentiation of the population by income, which has its justification. It was also revealed that the real income of the population grows when the economic growth rate, expressed in real GDP growth, exceeds three percent. At the same time, a more tangible improvement in the financial situation of the population is observed at real GDP growth rates of over five percent.

Research purpose. The purpose of this paper is to examine the efficiency of the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy in a banking system with excess liquidity. More specifically, it aims to examine how the interest rates of the central bank bills and inflation rate affect total lending and the overall economic activity in the country. For this purpose, the analysis is based on the case of the Republic of North Macedonia, whose banking system has exhibited excess liquidity in the past decade.

The article provides a comparative assessment of the socio-economic development results of 12 post-Soviet countries (excluding the Baltic countries) in the period from 1992 to 2019. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of real GDP and GDP per capita, it is concluded that the most successful were some countries of Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan) and Armenia. It is noted that in terms of economic development, significant convergence with Russian indicators has been achieved by Kazakhstan and Belarus. The successful economic dynamics was due to the active role of the state, the regulation of exchange rate dynamics and the achievement of a relatively high rate of investments to GDP at certain stages of economic development. On the whole, the problem of high inflation, which was relevant in the 1990s, has been overcome. Social problems of poverty and inequality persist in individual countries, high dependence on external factors of economic dynamics, instability of the exchange rate dynamics and primitivization of the economy still remain as important problems in the region. It is emphasized that the factors of economic growth that operated in the post-Soviet countries during the period under review are coming to an end, which requires a search for a new economic model.

Purpose. This study aims to measure and assess the impact of foreign capital flows, including foreign direct investment, external loans, foreign aid, and remittances from migrants, as independent variables on real GDP as a dependent variable in Algeria during the period 1990–2021 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) time series regression model. Results. The study found the existence of a long-term relationship between the selected economic variables and their impact on real GDP in Algeria, both in the short and long term. Additionally, there is a positive effect of both independent variables representing foreign direct investment and migrant remittances on real GDP. However, there is a negative impact of external loans on real GDP, which can be explained by the misallocation of these loans, with a significant portion directed towards non-productive sectors, negatively affecting the long-term economic growth in Algeria. Scientific novelty. The primary contribution of this study is its comprehensive elucidation of all major forms of foreign capital flows to Algeria and their impact on the Algerian economy, including FDI, foreign aid, external loans, and remittances. This is important because different types of foreign capital flows have different effects on the Algerian economy. In addition, the evolution of foreign capital flows to Algeria over a long period of time, from 1990 to 2021, is studied. This made it possible to identify trends and patterns in foreign capital flows that may not be apparent in short-term studies. Practical value. The results of this study can help policymakers to design policies that maximize the benefits of foreign capital flows while minimizing the risks. And Foreign capital flows can play an important role in helping Algeria to address these challenges and achieve its economic development goals.

This study assesses the dynamic relationship between macroeconomic factors and bank asset quality based on changes in the condition of stock market returns. A dynamic panel two-step system, the Generalized Method of Moments (system GMM) model, is employed using panel data from 18 universal banks spanning the period of 2007 to 2021. The analysis revealed that the real GDP growth rate, the average lending rate, and the real exchange rate represent a set of macroeconomic factors with a marked influence on banks’ asset quality, where a unit increase in these variables drive 0.02 percent, 0.98 percent, and 0.27 percent improvement in asset quality, respectively. In addition, a high-inflation rate was found to exert an adverse effect of −0.32 percent on asset quality, as it affects borrowers’ financial ability to meet loan repayment obligations. Furthermore, the study verified the existence of a positive relationship between market condition and asset quality, where a rise in the market return drives a 0.07 percent improvement in bank asset quality. This implies that bank performance adapts to changes in market conditions as posited under the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH). Bank managers should consolidate banks’ asset bases during conditions of market stability to withstand periodic market fluctuations to boost trading momentum. Policy recommendations are suggested to foster a conducive business environment for bank stability.

Typically, the explanatory variables included in a regression model, in conjunction with the omitted relevant regressors implied by the usual error term, have both direct and indirect effects on the dependent variable. Attempts to obtain their separate estimates have been plagued with simultaneity issues. To circumvent these problems, this paper defines their sum as "total effects", develops a time-varying coefficients methodology for their estimation without simultaneity bias, and applies these techniques to estimate the total effects of commercial bank credit per-capita on real GDP per-capita in Mauritius. An innovation is the introduction of extraneous variables that act as "coefficient drivers" chosen on the basis of best predictive performance, as measured by the smallest value of Theil's U-statistic we were able to locate in the estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Çankırı Karatekin University Journal of the Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Cankiri Karatekin University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Climate change has been a concern in the public sphere throughout the decades. Also, a constant change in climate as a result of geologic history is posing a global problem. Many earlier studies have focused on various factors; however, this study intends to contribute distinctly; therefore, we select 22 countries among the top 30 forested countries in the world declared by CEO-WORLD in 2020. The study explores the relationship between energy consumption, agricultural value-added, agricultural land, forest area, and real GDP with CO2 emissions from 1980 to 2019. For analysis, we account for heterogeneity in the cross sections by developing a novel panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model in order to capture within-group variations, which is the panel data form of the Shin et al. (2014) model. The Pesaran 2007, CADF and CIPS panel unit root testing results indicate that the investigated variables are stationary at their first differences. The empirical finding shows positive and negative shocks in electricity consumption and agricultural land have a favourable and statistically significant long-term effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shocks in agricultural value-added and forest areas have a significant adverse influence on environmental degradation, while negative shocks have a substantial long-term positive effect on CO2 emissions. Positive shock in real GDP is insignificant, whereas negative shock shows adverse and substantial long-term impacts on CO2 emissions. This research's contributions will help policymakers evaluate energy needs and implement clean energy; combating deforestation will help reduce CO2 emissions and improve the quality of the environment and climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the impact of the stock market on the economic growth. The aim of the study is to determine the degree of impact of the Russian stock market on gross domestic product, as well as to analyze the significance of various financial instruments in this process. The study suggests three hypotheses: 1) the dynamics of changes in the stock market as a whole has an impact on GDP growth; 2) the growth of the stock market has a positive impact on the change in GDP; 3) the stock market affects the GDP growth more, than that of corporate bonds. To test these hypotheses, the work employs methods of economic and mathematical modeling and building a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The authors used the data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Moscow Exchange (MOEX) and Finam Investment Holding for the period from January 2000 to July 2019. As a result, they proved that not only traditional macroeconomic and production factors affect the country’s GDP growth, but also the positive dynamics of the stock market. The paper revealed that the impact of the growth of stock indices and corporate bonds on the change in gross domestic product would be different. At the same time, a different degree of impact of the stock market on gross domestic product over time. The authors concluded that ensuring the growth of stock indices is a condition to achieve stable growth in Russia’s GDP. Most of all, the GDP growth depends on the growth of the largest liquid companies trading in the Russian stock market.

Pakistan has been facing the problem of energy crisis since 2007 and it has adversely affected the productivity and growth of the economy. To overcome this problem, under CPEC, 21 energy projects have been started in four provinces of Pakistan, Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and Azad Jammu & Kashmir (AJK). This study tries to access the impact of the CPEC energy project located in the Azad Jammu and Kashmir referred to as the 720MW Karot hydropower project on the economy of Pakistan using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Based on Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) 2010-2011 and) Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database, this study simulates the impact of Karot hydropower project on some of the macroeconomic variables. The simulated results reveal that real GDP and total exports to other countries increase owing to the investment in hydropower projects as well as an increase in the supply of electricity. Moreover, investment in the Karot hydropower project also increases the growth of the interlinked sectors such as manufacturing sector, transport, and communication, agriculture and services sector respectively. This study also observes that the real prices of factor input also increase which would have a direct impact on wellbeing of the people. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monetary and financial crisis have different effects on different economies of the world, which in addition to economic factors of countries, depends on the type of their interlinkage in a global economy. Regarding to the importance of U.S. monetary policy in international trade, it is necessary to study the effect of monetary policy shocks of this country on gross domestic product of major oil-exporting countries for determining macroeconomic policies and forecasts in a global and dynamic framework. In this paper we examine the impact of U.S. monetary policy on GDP of major oil-exporting countries in the period of 1974-2017 using GVAR approach. The results indicate that the effect of U.S. Monetary shocks on GDP of these countries is different in short-term and long-term.

The positive relationship between the level of economic activity and the measured nighttime light (NTL) by satellites can be justified, and several studies have confirmed this relationship. In this research, this relationship, in the period of 1992-2013, was investigated in Iran. The first step is to analyze the analytical approach based on NTL data and the process of data extraction, and then the relationship between NTL data and the level of economic activity was investigated. The results indicate a positive and significant relationship between real GDP and NTL; therefore, it is expected that income and NTL variables distributions have a positive relationship too. The covariance reveals the existence of the positive relationship, which indicates the similarity between the distributions of both variables in the provinces. Accordingly, by more uniform distribution of economic activities, income distribution at the provincial level can be directed towards greater equality. In other words, in the field of regional planning, the distribution of economic activities at the province level should be such that the distribution of income leads to greater equality.

The reaction of growth to trade liberalization has varied considerably across countries, with most countries gaining, but others being adversely affected by trade liberalization. Therefore, this study sought to examine the relationship between trade liberalization and economic growth in Ghana. The study used annual time series data covering the period of 1970-2016. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and Granger causality test, the study found that trade openness (proxied for trade liberalization), inflation, and population growth negatively affect the growth rate of the Ghanaian economy in the long-run, whilst exchange rate has a significant and long-run positive effect on economic growth. Also, investment has no impact on economic growth in the long-run. The study further indicated that only inflation and population growth have significant impacts on economic growth in the short-run. The results of the Granger causality test showed that there exists no complementary relationship between trade openness and economic growth in the short-run in Ghana. RESUMEN La reacción del crecimiento a la liberalización del comercio ha variado considerablemente entre los países, y la mayoría de los países están ganando, pero otros se ven perjudicados por la liberalización del comercio. Por lo tanto, este estudio buscó examinar la relación entre la liberalización del comercio y el crecimiento económico en Ghana. El estudio utilizó datos anuales de la serie de tiempo que cubrían el período de 1970-2016. Usando el modelo de Lag distribuida autoregresiva (ARDL) y el test de causalidad de Granger, el estudio encontró que la apertura comercial (proxy para la liberalización comercial), la inflación y el crecimiento demográfico afectan negativamente la tasa de crecimiento de la economía de Ghana a largo plazo, mientras que el tipo de cambio tiene un efecto positivo significativo y a largo plazo sobre el crecimiento económico. Además, la inversión no tiene ningún impacto en el crecimiento económico a largo plazo. El estudio indicó además que sólo la inflación y el crecimiento demográfico tienen impactos significativos en el crecimiento económico a corto plazo. Los resultados de la prueba de causalidad de Granger mostraron que no existe ninguna relación complementaria entre la apertura comercial y el crecimiento económico en el corto plazo en Ghana.

Copyright of Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica is the property of Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Lodzkiego and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This article tests five major economies of the world, United Kingdom, Japan, Brazil, Chin and lastly, India, for the changes in the monetary policy decisions that have been implemented following the Covid-19 outbreak. The assessment was undertaken in the form of an event study analysis, further substantiated with a regression analysis conducted for exploring the significance of CPI and real GDP in predicting the policy interest rates in the economy. The results of the event study analysis presented that the abnormal changes in the interest rates were statistically significant in the case of the United Kingdom, Brazil, and China, while the abnormal changes were found to be statistically insignificant in the case of India and Japan.

Succinct exploration of Adolph Wagner's Proposition [WP] 1883 – Peacock and Wiseman 1961version was put to the validation test in the study. At least, this time, for a quinaquina octo annis period, representing the life span of Nigeria. Specific suspicion of shocks from data from the world indicator and monetary authority necessitated the adoption of the ADF test with structural breaks, which came out positive at alternating integrating order. This propelled the Autoregressive Distributed Lag ARDL model path having specified the lag selection automatically. Even though the series showed significant association in the short run, and bi-directional causality, the result of the Bound test – F-statistics (calculated) = 3.42 falls below upper Bound I(0) = 4.68 and lower bound I(1) = 5.15 hence, invalidates the WP position in the long – run in Nigeria. This is an indication that a reduction in non-economically viable and overlapping, funds-straining ministries/departments/agencies (MDA) is indispensable.

The study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in Ghana using a multivariate modeling technique of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and focusing on impact of broad money supply (M2), lending rate, inflation and real GDP on exchange rate, for 76 quarterly observations period of 2000–2019, in Ghana and to examine their effectiveness in managing exchange rate in Ghana. The study used only secondary sources of data from Bank of Ghana, World Development Indicators and Ghana Statistical Service. It was found that, real GDP granger causes exchange rate in Ghana. However, inflation, money supply and lending rate do not granger cause exchange rate in Ghana but they affect exchange rate indirectly. It was recommended that a sound exchange rate policy should take into account some considerations. The bank of Ghana should try to reduce the lending rate and money supply in order to lower inflation to create rooms for more investors to produce more to increase the GDP produced in the country, in order to depreciate the foreign currency.

The objective of this research is to obtain externalities model of direct export to real GDP several ASEAN states. It is already known thatJapanand United States represent biggest commerce partners to state of ASEAN. From result of analysis, there are significance influences of direct export to Asian Continent andAmericato real GDP some members of ASEAN. Partially, export to Japan andAmericado not fully give any influence to the real GDP signicance ofMalaysia,Singaporeand of Filippine. Model of Estimation show trend go up for both GDP real and also direct export to the ASEAN country (Indonesia,Malaysia, Philippine, andSingapore).

The objective of this research is to analyze the impact of real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) and investment on the consumption of electricity energy in the ASEAN countries (Malaysia, Phillippine and Indonesia). From the result of the analysis, it is found that there are significant influences of the real GDP and investment on the consumption of the electricity energy. Partially, real GDP and investment doesn’t have any significant influence on the consumption of electricity for Malaysia and Indonesia. Estimation model show that an increasing trend of consumption of electricity, investment and real GDP.

The current study explored the cogency of the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) in SAARC. For it, 29 years, time-series data from 1990 to 2018 have been used1. The Fixed effect model and Panel cointegration tests have been applied to consider the affiliation among the regressors. The fallouts of the study indicate that government debt and private consumption have a long-run cointegrated liaison with each other. The outcomes of the study reject the certainty of Ricardian equivalence in SAARC. Along with an upturn in government debt, private consumption increases and people do not postpone current consumption despite increasing government debt and expected taxes, which can be levied in future to repay the debt obligations. In addition, real GDP and Real government expenditure stimulate while real tax revenue discourages private consumption. The study also found two way causality between government debt and private consumption. The results also imply that fiscal policy is adequate to stabilize the economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study examined the effect of macroeconomic variables on exchange rate in Ghana using a multivariate modeling technique of the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and focusing on impact of broad money supply (M2), lending rate, inflation and real GDP on exchange rate, for 76 quarterly observations period of 2000–2019, in Ghana and to examine their effectiveness in managing exchange rate in Ghana. The study used only secondary sources of data from Bank of Ghana, World Development Indicators and Ghana Statistical Service. It was found that, real GDP granger causes exchange rate in Ghana. However, inflation, money supply and lending rate do not granger cause exchange rate in Ghana but they affect exchange rate indirectly. It was recommended that a sound exchange rate policy should take into account some considerations. The bank of Ghana should try to reduce the lending rate and money supply in order to lower inflation to create rooms for more investors to produce more to increase the GDP produced in the country, in order to depreciate the foreign currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the researchers use Lumsdaine and Papell tests for a unit root in the presence of unrestricted structural change and Papell and Prodan test for a unit root in the presence of restricted structural change to study the long-term real gross domestic product (GDP) in the U.S. The unit root null is rejected at the 1% level with both tests. Using the Murray and Nelson method to evaluate the rejections, the researchers discover that, unlike the Augmented-Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests, the unit root null is not rejected too often if the data generating process is a unit root with transitory fluctuations.

Innovation is coming from new Knowledge, and new Technology. The author select these two countries because Canada has a very strong innovative economy, while Pakistan is not so strong. The study concludes that foreign direct investment, R&D, and High-tech exports have a positive impact on economic growth, and the results show a significant positive impact on GDP, in the case of Canada. While in Pakistan this influence is not significant due to some internal problems that Pakistan faces like a low rate of domestic investment, political instability, less investment in higher education. Therefore, the comparison can be useful in adapting Canada’s innovation policy for Pakistan.

Previous studies on the energy-environment-growth literature overlook the investigation of the most-visited countries. Since these countries do not only belong to the largest economies and the top carbon dioxide (CO2) emitters in the world but are also listed in renewable energy country attractiveness index, this study analyzes the impacts of real GDP, renewable energy and tourism on the level of CO2 emissions for the top 10 mostvisited countries. Applying several panel econometric approaches, we find out that renewable energy mitigates the pollution whereas real GDP and tourism contribute to the level of emissions. Thus, regulatory policies are necessary to increase the awareness of sustainable tourism. In addition, the use of renewable energy and the adoption of clean technologies in tourism sector as well as in producing goods and services play a significant role in CO2 mitigation.

The study examines the impacts of urbanization, energy consumption and real GDP on atmospheric pollution from automobile transport in Azerbaijan in the STIRPAT framework. Since the study uses time series variables the unit root properties of employed variables are tested for non‑stationarity. Stationarity of the data is tested using conventional Augmented Dickey‑Fuller test. The study employs Autoregressive Distributed Lags Bounds Testing (ARDLBT) approach to co‑integration. This method is one of the most preferable approaches among alternatives in the case of small samples. Estimation results indicated that the variables are cointegrated, in another word there is a long‑run relationship among them. In order to test the quality of the model residuals of the model are tested for the serial correlation, heteroskedasticity, and normality. The model is checked for model misspecification and stability. The results of all abovementioned tests are found to be adequate. The highest impact on pollution among the variables belongs to urbanization which is found to be positive and statistically significant. Energy consumption also has a positive and statistically significant impact on emission. The results also confirm that sustainable development can be reached only keeping the balance among environmental, social and economic factors. Findings of the study may be useful in making appropriate decisions in the fields of diminishing atmospheric pollution from automobile transport caused by urbanization related issues.

Exploring the causal relationship among exports, FDI and economic growth is of enormous importance for the policy implications the causal process among the variables assume. The relevance of investigating the causal relationship between inward FDI and exports borders on the implications of the choice between outward oriented policy and inward looking policy. Utilizing data on Malaysia spanning 1970 – 2012, this study explores the relationships as well as causal interactions among economic growth, exports and FDI employing Vector Autoregression (VAR) model and Toda and Yamamoto (1995) augmented causality test. Results from impulse response function (IRF) analysis shows that both real GDP and real FDI have increasing trend of percentage shocks in them causing fluctuations in the real exports over the period of 5 years. However, real exports was found to have dominance of own shock over the period of analysis. Similarly IRF of real FDI shows that flections in the variable are dominated by variations in its own values. However, both real exports and real FDI were found to have significant effect in determining fluctuation in real FDI with real GDP having stronger effect. Finally, we observe very significant effect on fluctuations in real GDP of real FDI and exports. Over the course of five years, it was observed that real FDI and exports dominate fluctuations in the real GDP more than its own shock. Results from the study indicate presence of bi-directional causality between exports and inward FDI. On the causal link between exports and GDP, the study finds evidence of uni-directional causality running from GDP to exports, affirming Growth-Led Exports (GLE) hypothesis. The study also provides evidence that market size hypothesis holds for Malaysia, as evident by one-way causality from GDP to FDI.

Applying the EGARCH model and using demand and supply analysis, this paper finds that the HUF/USD exchange rate (units of the Hungarian forint per U.S. dollar) is positively associated with the U.S. Treasury bill rate, U.S. real GDP, the U.S. stock index, the Hungarian inflation rate and the expected exchange rate and negatively influenced by the Hungarian Treasury bill rate, Hungarian real GDP, the Hungarian stock index, and the U.S. inflation rate. The HUF/USD exchange rate has a long-term equilibrium relationship with these time series variables.

This paper examines short-run determinants of the U.S. dollar/Polish zloty (USD/PLN) exchange rate based on a simultaneous-equation model of demand and supply. Using a reduced form equation and the EGARCH model, the paper finds that the USD/PLN exchange rate is positively associated with the real reference rate in Poland, real GDP in the U.S., the real stock index in Poland and the expected exchange rate and is negatively influenced by the U.S. real federal funds rate, real GDP in Poland, and the real stock index in the U.S. Hence, monetary policy is effective in influencing the USD/PLN exchange rate.

Since their inception around 1960 the international System of National Accounts (SNA) constant price accounts (chained volumes) have mismeasured real GDP. The domestic production effects of changes in the terms of trade have been excluded and international trade values misreported. Most of the time the SNA mismeasurements have little real effect. But when there are large changes in the terms of trade they become statistically significant. Real GDP estimates may transform into mere counterfactuals. This is particularly so when the terms of trade are declining. After September 2011, did the mismeasurement of international trade hamper the economic management of the Australian economy? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper is dedicated to estimating the influence of corruption upon Romania’s economic growth by means of an econometric model ARMA component. In order to quantify the impact, firstly some indicators have been identified to properly assess the economic condition and corruption. The most important economic growth indicator is real GDP growth rate (or chain index of real GDP). In order to estimate the level of corruption, the authors have used the Corruption Perceptions Index, annually launched and calculated by Transparency International. The model chosen for this paper has an ARMA component and expresses the dependence of the economic variable on the corruption variable by a straight-line relationship. The model shows that one of the factors having a significant negative impact upon the economic growth is corruption.

This paper looks at the evolution of the unemployment problem in the Euro Area. Our goal is to look at what are the roots of the unemployment problem and to devise reasons of the already chronic unemployment problem. We show the main factors that prolong the agony of unemployment and whether it is likely that in the near future, the problem of unemployment in the Euro Area will bi past. In the Euro Area we follow the analysis of basic macroeconomic indicators of balance in an economy - GDP, inflation and unemployment. We consider whether the monetary strategy of inflation targeting has contributed to the unemployment problem, by reducing the potential output, but also to confirm that within the current global crisis there are some deviations from the theoretical concepts of basic macroeconomic relationships - Okun's law and the Phillips curve. We show that only Germany, with a 'small' sacrifice, can save the real sector in the peripheral Mediterranean countries, as well as in the entire Euro Area.

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s, analyze its determinants, and show that the linear model fits the data better. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]