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Mountain social‐ecological systems (MtSES) are vital to humanity, providing ecosystem services to over half the planet's human population. Despite their importance, there has been no global assessment of threats to MtSES, even as they face unprecedented challenges to their sustainability. With survey data from 57 MtSES sites worldwide, we test a conceptual model of the types and scales of stressors and ecosystem services in MtSES and explore their distinct configurations according to their primary economic orientation and land use. We find that MtSES worldwide are experiencing both gradual and abrupt climatic, economic, and governance changes, with policies made by outsiders as the most ubiquitous challenge. Mountains that support primarily subsistence‐oriented livelihoods, especially agropastoral systems, deliver abundant services but are also most at risk. Moreover, transitions from subsistence‐ to market‐oriented economies are often accompanied by increased physical connectedness, reduced diversity of cross‐scale ecosystem services, lowered importance of local knowledge, and shifting vulnerabilities to threats. Addressing the complex challenges facing MtSES and catalyzing transformations to MtSES sustainability will require cross‐scale partnerships among researchers, stakeholders, and decision makers to jointly identify desired futures and adaptation pathways, assess trade‐offs in prioritizing ecosystem services, and share best practices for sustainability. These transdisciplinary approaches will allow local stakeholders, researchers, and practitioners to jointly address MtSES knowledge gaps while simultaneously focusing on critical issues of poverty and food security. ISSN:2328-4277

The devastating 2015 earthquakes in Nepal highlighted the need for effective disaster risk reduction (DRR) in mountains, which are inherently subject to hazards and increasingly vulnerable to extreme events. As multiple UN policy frameworks stress, DRR is crucial to mitigate the mounting environmental and socioeconomic costs of disasters globally. However, specialized DRR guidelines are needed for biodiverse, multi-hazard regions like mountains. Ecosystem-based disaster risk reduction (Eco-DRR) emphasizes ecosystem conservation, restoration, and sustainable management as key elements for DRR. We propose that integrating the emerging field of Eco-DRR with community-based DRR (CB-DRR) will help address the increasing vulnerabilities of mountain people and ecosystems. Drawing on a global mountain synthesis, we present paradoxes that create challenges for DRR in mountains and examine these paradoxes through examples from the 2015 Nepal earthquakes. We propose four principles for integrated CB- and Eco-DRR that address these challenges: (1) governance and institutional arrangements that fit local needs; (2) empowerment and capacity-building to strengthen community resilience; (3) discovery and sharing of constructive practices that combine local and scientific knowledge; and (4) approaches focused on well-being and equity. We illustrate the reinforcing relationship between integrated CB- and Eco-DRR principles with examples from other mountain systems worldwide. Coordinated community and ecosystem-based actions offer a potential path to achieve DRR, climate adaptation, sustainable development, and biodiversity conservation for vulnerable ecosystems and communities worldwide.

Wildfire risk in temperate forests has become a nearly intractable problem that can be characterized as a socioecological “pathology”: that is, a set of complex and problematic interactions among social and ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Assessments of wildfire risk could benefit from recognizing and accounting for these interactions in terms of socioecological systems, also known as coupled natural and human systems (CNHS). We characterize the primary social and ecological dimensions of the wildfire risk pathology, paying particular attention to the governance system around wildfire risk, and suggest strategies to mitigate the pathology through innovative planning approaches, analytical tools, and policies. We caution that even with a clear understanding of the problem and possible solutions, the system by which human actors govern fire-prone forests may evolve incrementally in imperfect ways and can be expected to resist change even as we learn better ways to manage CNHS.

The International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network comprises > 600 scientific groups conducting site-based research within 40 countries. Its mission includes improving the understanding of global ecosystems and informs solutions to current and future environmental problems at the global scales. The ILTER network covers a wide range of social-ecological conditions and is aligned with the Programme on Ecosystem Change and Society (PECS) goals and approach. Our aim is to examine and develop the conceptual basis for proposed collaboration between ILTER and PECS. We describe how a coordinated effort of several contrasting LTER site-based research groups contributes to the understanding of how policies and technologies drive either toward or away from the sustainable delivery of ecosystem services. This effort is based on three tenets: transdisciplinary research; cross-scale interactions and subsequent dynamics; and an ecological stewardship orientation. The overarching goal is to design management practices taking into account trade-offs between using and conserving ecosystems toward more sustainable solutions. To that end, we propose a conceptual approach linking ecosystem integrity, ecosystem services, and stakeholder well-being, and as a way to analyze trade-offs among ecosystem services inherent in diverse management options. We also outline our methodological approach that includes: (i) monitoring and synthesis activities following spatial and temporal trends and changes on each site and by documenting cross-scale interactions; (ii) developing analytical tools for integration; (iii) promoting trans-site comparison; and (iv) developing conceptual tools to design adequate policies and management interventions to deal with trade-offs. Finally, we highlight the heterogeneity in the social-ecological setting encountered in a subset of 15 ILTER sites. These study cases are diverse enough to provide a broad cross-section of contrasting ecosystems with different policy and management drivers of ecosystem conversion; distinct trends of biodiversity change; different stakeholders' preferences for ecosystem services; and diverse components of well-being issues.

1 Ecologist, Plymouth State University, Center for the Environment, Russell House, Plymouth, NH 03264, USA 2 Ecologist, University of Colorado at Boulder, Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, UCB 450, 1560 30th St., Boulder, CO 80309, USA 3 Evolutionary biologist, Universite Rene-Descartes Paris V, Centre de recherches interdisciplinaires (CRI), INSERM U571, Faculte de medecine, Site Cochin Port-Royal, 75014 Paris, France

Background: Current understanding of treeline or forest-alpine ecotone (FAE) dynamics does not fully explain past and present FAE patterns and their underlying processes, nor allow prediction of their response to climate change. Aims: We address the overarching hypothesis that the FAE is a mosaic of distinct landscape units of vegetation and landforms that result in differential responses to climate change. We focus on climate-related, landscape and vegetation characteristics, but also consider the effect of landscape heterogeneity on biogeochemistry and overall resilience of the FAE to climate change. Results: There are three distinct FAE land units at Niwot Ridge, generated by different interactions of climate with vegetation, landforms and topography. Within these FAEs, a process of self-organisation takes place from organism to patch to landscape scales, and is modulated by positive and negative feedback loops along an elevation gradient. The underlying controls cannot be attributed solely to temperature, but to a combination of interactions along a physical/biotic gradient. Conclusions: FAE dynamics result from interactions among mechanisms and processes at the microsite, patch and landscape scales: (1) tree persistence; (2) forest patch establishment; (3) drivers of patch forest configurations and (4) resilience, increasing along a gradient of biotic control.

Aim We addressed four objectives: (1) Determine the regional responses of species, size classes and a vegetation type to climate and parent material predictors, including their distributions in environmental space and the relative contributions of the predictors to explained variation. (2) Determine whether size classes of a species respond similarly to climate and parent material. (3) Assess the extent to which the predicted regional distribution of a vegetation type can be approximated by the distribution of its diagnostic species and vice versa. The establishment of a consistent relationship between the distribution of a vegetation type and its diagnostic species would facilitate change detection, management and conservation planning by allowing the use of one distribution to generate the other when data availability is limited. (4) Examine landscape-scale environmental variability in predicted species and vegetation type distributions. Location South-western USA (Arizona, New Mexico and southern Colorado). Methods Ecological response surface models were developed using a data base of 1409 vegetation plots to analyse biotic–environmental relationships of (1) Pinus ponderosa P. & C. Lawson and Abies concolor (Gord. & Glend.) Lindl. Ex Hildebr. size classes, (2) P. ponderosa, A. concolor and Quercus gambelii Nutt. combined size classes, and (3) a P. ponderosa forest type widely distributed in the south-western USA. Results and main conclusions Pinus ponderosa and A. concolor models generally were judged to be successful. Quercus gambelii models were judged unsuccessful, which may result from the influence of variables not modelled, such as soil moisture, disturbance, biotic factors and other site limiting factors. Size classes differed in the range of environmental conditions associated with high occurrence probabilities within and between species, reflecting differences in the effects of climate variability and anthropogenic changes, such as fire suppression, on the distribution of each size class. Pinus ponderosa alliance was predicted to be distributed over a narrower range of environmental conditions than P. ponderosa species models, therefore limiting the use of this vegetation type as a surrogate for the distribution of the dominant species, and vice versa. Maps of combinations of environmental variables that produced a high probability of P. ponderosa occurrence showed that some landscapes predicted to contain the species exhibited diverse environmental conditions over short distances. The use of regional environmental relationships to characterize areas with high local environmental variability may facilitate identification of areas of potential rapid biotic change.

Core design components of the Ecosystem Management Decision Support system were used to develop and implement the integrated restoration and protection strategy of the Northern Region of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service. Scenarios that spatially optimized hazardous fuel reduction, protected developed recreation values, and improved watershed conditions are presented to illustrate how the evaluation and decision modeling capabilities of the decision support system can be used sequentially in both strategic and tactical planning.

(2000). Antarctic Sea Ice—Physical Processes, Interactions and Variability, Submarines under Ice—The U.S. Navy's Polar Operations, Climate Change and Spatial Diversity of Vegetation during the Late Quaternary of Beringia, Numerical Ecology. By Pierre and Louis Legendre, Tectonic Uplift and Climate Change, Geocryological Map of Russia and Neighbouring Republics: The English Language Edition. Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research: Vol. 32, No. 2, pp. 216-220.

Plant species richness and species-area relations were examined for three landscapes (toposequences), each with a summit or upland, a midslope and a toeslope or lowland, in a shortgrass steppe in Colorado. The number of plant species in the largest plot size (0.16 ha) varied from 38 to 53. Neither the exponential relationship: s = a + b log A, nor the power function: S = cAz fit the data equally well in all situations. The processes acting upon species diversity here seem to operate at two spatial scales. The number of species in plots smaller than 3 m 2 was independent of the total number of species in the 0.16-ha plots and was constrained by the presence of the dominant bunchgrasses. Beyond 3 m 2 , species number in each plot size was a function of the total number of species in the 0.16-ha plot.

The availability of spatially continuous data layers can have a strong impact on selection of land units for conservation purposes. The suitability of ecological conditions for sustaining the targets of conservation is an important consideration in evaluating candidate conservation sites. We constructed two fuzzy logic-based knowledge bases to determine the conservation suitability of land units in the interior Columbia River basin using NetWeaver software in the Ecosystem Management Decision Support application framework. Our objective was to assess the sensitivity of suitability ratings, derived from evaluating the knowledge bases, to fuzzy logic function parameters and to the removal of data layers (land use condition, road density, disturbance regime change index, vegetation change index, land unit size, cover type size, and cover type change index). The amount and geographic distribution of suitable land polygons was most strongly altered by the removal of land use condition, road density, and land polygon size. Removal of land use condition changed suitability primarily on private or intensively-used public land. Removal of either road density or land polygon size most strongly affected suitability on higher-elevation US Forest Service land containing small-area biophysical environments. Data layers with the greatest influence differed in rank between the two knowledge bases. Our results reinforce the importance of including both biophysical and socio-economic attributes to determine the suitability of land units for conservation. The sensitivity tests provided information about knowledge base structuring and parameterization as well as prioritization for future data needs.

International audience; This work addresses the impacts of development at the wildland-urban interface on forest fires that spread to human habitats. Catastrophic fires in the western United States and elsewhere make these impacts a matter of urgency for decision makers, scientists, and the general public. Using a simple fire-spread model, along with housing and vegetation data, we show that fire size probability distributions can be strongly modified by the density and flammability of houses. We highlight a sharp transition zone in the parameter space of vegetation flammability and house density. Many actual fire landscapes in the United States appear to have spreading properties close to this transition. Thus, the density and flammability of buildings should be taken into account when assessing fire risk at the wildland-urban interface. Moreover, our results highlight ways for regulation at this interface to help mitigate fire risk.

Potential vegetation environments (e.g., habitat types, range sites, ecological sites) are important to land managers because they provide a conceptual basis for the description of resource potentials and ecological integrity. Efficient use of potential vegetation classifications in regional or subregional scale assessments of ecosystem health has been limited to date, however, because traditional ecological unit mapping procedures often treat such classifications as ancillary information in the map unit description. Accordingly, it is difficult, if not impossible, to describe the precise location, patch size, and spatial arrangement of potential vegetation environments from most traditional ecological unit maps. Recent advances in remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), terrain modeling, and climate interpolation facilitate the direct mapping of potential vegetation through a predictive process based on gradient analysis and ecological niche theory. In this paper, we describe how a predictive vegetation mapping process was used to develop a 30 m raster-based map of 4 grassland, 5 shrubland, and 6 woodland habitat types across the Little Missouri National Grasslands, North Dakota. Discriminant analysis was used in developing this potential vegetation map based on 6 primary geographic information system themes. Geoclimatic subsections and remotely sensed vegetation lifeform maps were used in predictive model stratification. Terrain indices, LANDSAT satellite imagery, and interpolated climate information were used as independent (predictor) variables in model construction. A total of 616 field plots with known habitat type membership were used as dependent variables and assessed by a jackknife discriminant analysis procedure. Accuracy values of our map ranged from 54 to 77% in grasslands, 62 to 100% in shrublands, and 70 to 100% in woodlands dependent on geoclimatic subsection setting. Techniques are also described for generalizing the 30 m pixel resolution habitat type map to appropriate ecological unit maps (e.g., landtype associations) for use in ecosystem health assessments and land use planning. DOI:10.2458/azu_jrm_v54i5_jensen