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Model selection and parameter estimation are very important in many fields. However, the existing methods have many problems, such as low efficiency in model selection and inaccuracy in parameter estimation. In this study, we proposed a new algorithm named improved approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (IABC-SMC) based on approximate Bayesian computation sequential Monte Carlo algorithm (ABC-SMC). Using the IABC-SMC algorithm, given data and the set of two models including logistic and Gompertz models of infectious diseases, we obtained the best fitting model and the values of unknown parameters of the corresponding model. The simulation results showed that the IABC-SMC algorithm can quickly and accurately select a model that best matches the corresponding epidemic data among multiple candidate models and estimate the values of unknown parameters of model very accurately. We further compared the effects of IABC-SMC algorithm with that of ABC-SMC algorithm. Simulations showed that the IABC-SMC algorithm can improve the accuracy of estimated parameter values and the speed of model selection and also avoid the shortage of ABC-SMC algorithm. This study suggests that the IABC-SMC algorithm can be seen as a promising method for model selection and parameter estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Considering the mature condition of any individual to have eaten a specific amount of food during the entire period that it can spend at its immature stage, we propose a size-structured model by a first-order quasi-linear partial differential equation. The model can be firstly reduced to a single state-dependent delay differential equation and then to a constant delay differential equation. The state-dependent delay represents intra-specific competition among individuals for limited food resources. A complete analysis of the global dynamics on the positivity and boundedness of solutions, global stability for each equilibrium and Hopf bifurcation is carried out. Our results imply that the delay leads to instability that is shown by a simple example of a certain structured population model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the stability properties of a parabolic partial differential equation with state-dependent delay are investigated by the heuristic approach. The previous works [1,2] obtained a continuously differentiable semiflow with continuously differentiable solution operators defined by the classical solutions, and resolved the problem of linearization for this equation. Here, we clarify the relation between the spectral properties of the linearization of the semiflow at a stationary solution and the strong continuous semigroup defined by the solutions of the linearization of this equation, and consider the local stable and unstable invariant manifolds of the semiflow at a stationary solution. By a biological application, we finally verify all hypotheses for an age structured diffusive model with state-dependent delay and consider its stability behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: As a highly efficient and specific gene regulation technology, RNAi has broad application fields and good prospects. The effect of RNAi enhances as the dosage of siRNA increases, while an exorbitant siRNA dosage will inhibit the RNAi effect. So it is crucial to formulate a dose-effect model to describe the degradation effects of the target mRNA at different siRNA dosages. Results: In this work, a simple RNA interference model with hill kinetic function (Giulia Cuccato et al. (2011)) is extended. Firstly, by introducing both the degradation time delay τ1 of mRNA caused by siRNA and the transportation time delay τ2 of mRNA from the nucleus to the cytoplasm during protein translation, one acquires a novel delay differential equations (DDEs) model with physiology lags. Secondly, qualitative analyses are executed to identify regions of stability of the positive equilibrium and to determine the corresponding parameter scales. Next, the approximate period of the limit cycle at Hopf bifurcation points is computed. Furthermore we analyze the parameter sensitivity of the limit cycle. Finally, we propose an optimal strategy to select siRNA dosage which arouses significant silencing efficiency. Conclusions: Our researches indicate that when the dosage of siRNA is large, oscillating periods are identical for disparate number of siRNA target sites even if it greatly impacts the critical siRNA dosage which is the switch of oscillating behavior. Furthermore, parametric sensitivity analyses of limit cycle disclose that both of degradation lag and maximum degradation rate of mRNA due to RNAi are principal elements on determining periodic oscillation. Our explorations will provide evidence for gene regulation and RNAi. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Media coverage reduces the transmission rate from infective to susceptible individuals and is reflected by suitable nonlinear functions in mathematical modeling of the disease. We here focus on estimating the parameters in the transmission rate based on a stochastic SIR epidemic model with media coverage. In order to reduce the computational load, the Newton-Raphson algorithm and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique are incorporated with maximum likelihood estimation. Simulations validate our estimation results and the necessity of a model with media coverage when modeling the contagious diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper mainly provides Hopf bifurcation formulas for a general Gause type predator–prey system with diffusion and Neumann boundary condition by using the center manifold theory and normal form method, where the spectral and stability analysis around an equilibrium is addressed, and our results can be applied to the case without diffusion. As an application of these results, we give a complete and rigorous analysis of the global dynamics of a diffusive predator–prey model with herd behavior, especially, the Hopf bifurcation and its direction, and the stability of the bifurcating periodic solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pest control, taking the lag of parasitic eggs, the lag effect of pesticide poisoning and the age of releasing natural enemies as control variables, combined with the crop fertility cycle, researches on the optimization problem of pest control models at seedling stage, the bud stage, and filling stage of crops fill in a gap. For these purposes, a generalized hybrid optimization problem involving state delay with characteristic times and parameter control is presented. Then an algorithm based on a gradient computation is given. Finally, two examples in an agroecological system are given to exhibit the effectiveness of the proposed optimization algorithm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Considering the impact of harvesting on the coexistence and competitive exclusion of competitive predators, a two-zooplankton one-phytoplankton model with harvesting is proposed and investigated. First, stability criteria of the model is analyzed both from local and global point of view. Second, two types of zooplankton will competitively exclude each other in the absence of harvesting with the zooplankton with the larger threshold persisting. If harvest rates are discriminate, then a dominant zooplankton may occur depending on the harvesting level. Thus, for some harvesting levels, the zooplankton one may persist while for other harvesting levels zooplankton two may persist. Furthermore, the value of the harvesting level and coexistence line are obtained when coexistence occur. Finally, the impact of harvesting is mentioned along with numerical results to provide some support to the analytical findings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, two integrated pest management models are investigated, which rely on release of infective pest individuals and of natural enemies in a constant amount, together with spraying of pesticides. It is proved that the susceptible pests can be eradicated if the release amount of infected pests is above some threshold or the pesticide effect is above another threshold. Furthermore, permanent conditions are established when an impulsive control is used. Finally, numerical results show that (1) fewer infected pests or pesticides are needed as the impulsive strategy is taken, displaying its positive effect on the pest control; (2) our assumption that the natural enemies of the pests do not catch the infective pests would reduce the level of the susceptible pests. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: A delayed SEIQR epidemic model with pulse vaccination and the quarantine measure is investigated. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by the stroboscopic map, we obtain the exact periodic disease-free solution. Using the comparison method, we prove that the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the basic reproductive number () is less than unity, and that the disease is permanent when another basic reproductive number () is greater than unity. In other words, the disease will be extinct if the pulse vaccination rate is larger than a critical value and the disease will be uniformly persistent if the vaccination rate is less than another critical value . Our results indicate that a longer latent period of the disease or a larger pulse vaccination rate will lead to the eradication of the disease, and whether the disease will be extinct or not is independent of the removal rate from the quarantined group. Furthermore, a larger fraction of susceptibles should be vaccinated against the disease unless the quarantine measure is taken. Finally, we find that the number of the infected decreases as the quarantine measure is taken. We carry out numerical simulations to verify our results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: An impulsive delayed SI model with variable coefficients and a nonlinear incidence is formulated and analyzed. By introducing three thresholds, we obtain sufficient conditions for eradication and permanence of the disease, respectively. It is shown that the conditions depend on time delay for both the global attractivity of the positive infection-free periodic solution and permanence of the model. Furthermore, our results indicate that the disease will disappear if the ratio of the maximum to minimum of the pulse vaccination rate is lager than some value. The main feature of this paper is that we introduce multi-delays and variable coefficients into the SI model, and exhibit a new method which is applied to investigate this model. Numerical results show that the system we considered has complex dynamics including periodic and quasi-periodic oscillations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Three different vaccination and treatment strategies in the SIR epidemic model with saturated infectious force and vertical transmission are analyzed. The dynamics of epidemic models are globally investigated by using Floquet theory and comparison theorem of impulsive differential equation. Thresholds are identified and global stability results are proved. For every treatment and vaccination strategy, the disease-free periodic solution of impulsive system has been obtained and is found to be globally asymptotically stable when the basic reproduction number is less than one, equivalently the cure rate is larger than the threshold value, whereas the disease is persistent when the basic reproduction number is larger than one. These results indicate that a large cure rate will lead to the eradication of a disease. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This work investigates the dynamic behaviors of one-prey multi-predator model with defensive ability of the prey by introducing impulsive biological control strategy. By using the Floquent theorem and the small amplitude perturbation method, it is proved that there exists an asymptotically stable pest-eradication periodic solution when the impulsive period is less than some critical value, and a permanence condition is established via the method of comparison involving multiple Liapunov functions. It is shown that the multi-predator impulsive control strategy is more effective than the classical one and makes the behavior dynamics of the system more complex. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the smoothness properties of semiflows on C 1 -solution submanifold of a parabolic partial differential equations with state-dependent delay are investigated. The problem is formulated as an abstract ordinary retarded functional differential equation of the form d u ( t ) / d t = A u ( t ) + F ( u t ) with a continuously differentiable map G from an open subset U of the space C 1 ( [ − h , 0 ] , L 2 ( Ω ) ) , where A is the infinitesimal generator of a compact C 0 -semigroup. The present study is continuation of a previous work [14] that highlights the classical solutions and C 1 -smoothness of solution manifold. Here, we further prove the continuous differentiability of the semiflow. We finally verify all hypotheses by a biological example which describes a stage structured diffusive model where the delay, which is the time taken from birth to maturity, is assumed as a function of a immature species population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper deals with a predator–prey model with specialist harvesting, representing a two predators (Zooplankton) and one resource (Phytoplankton) system. First, the existence and stability of equilibria is analyzed both from local and global point of view. Our results indicate that a specialist harvesting which is discriminate may mediate the coexistence of the two zooplankton species which competitively exclude each other in absence harvesting. Although in most cases increasing harvesting reduces the two zooplankton species numbers, when harvesting leads to coexistence, it may also lead to increase the two zooplankton species numbers. Furthermore, to protect fish population from over exploitation a control instrument tax is imposed. The problem of optimal taxation policy is then solved by using Pontryagin’s maximal principle. It is established that the zero discounting leads to the maximization of the net economic revenue to the society and an infinite discount rate leads to complete dissipation of the net economic revenue to the society. Finally, the impact of harvesting is mentioned along with numerical results to provide some support to the analytical findings. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: This article investigates continuous and impulsive threshold harvesting strategies on the predator which needs to be applied only when the predator population is above or reaches the harvesting threshold. For the continuous threshold model, the system is nonsmooth and has complex dynamics with multiple internal equilibria, limit cycle, homoclinic orbit, saddle–node bifurcation, transcritical bifurcation, subcritical and supercritical Hopf bifurcation, Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation and discontinuous Hopf bifurcation. In order to prevent the predator population being above the threshold, we further extend our model with impulsive threshold harvesting strategies. The model is non-continuous and the existence and stability of positive order-1 and order-2 periodic solutions were obtained by using the Poincaré map. It is seen that the impulsive threshold harvesting strategies are more effective than the continuous. Furthermore, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Considering that over exploitation would result in the extinction of the population, we propose and investigate a Holling II functional response prey-predator model with harvesting for fishery resource in a two-patch environment: a free fishing zone (patch 1) and a reserve zone (patch 2) where fishing is strictly prohibited. First, the presence of harvesting can impact the existence of equilibria. Further, stability criteria of the model is analyzed both from local and global point of view. Our results indicate that so long as the prey population in the reserved zone does not extinct, the both prey always exist, that is marine reserves should ensure the sustainability of system. Thus, marine reserves not only protect species inside the reserve area but they can also increase fish abundance in adjacent areas. Next, the existence of bionomic equilibrium and the optimal harvesting policy are discussed. The present value of revenues is maximized by using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. It is established that an infinite discount rate leads to complete dissipation of economic rent. Finally, some numerical simulations are given to illustrate our results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]