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Many active galaxies harbor powerful relativistic jets, however, the detailed mechanisms of their formation and acceleration remain poorly understood. To investigate the area of jet acceleration and collimation with the highest available angular resolution, we study the innermost region of the bipolar jet in the nearby low-ionization nuclear emission-line region (LINER) galaxy NGC 1052. We combined observations of NGC 1052 taken with VLBA, GMVA, and EHT over one week in the spring of 2017. For the first time, NGC 1052 was detected with the EHT, providing a size of the central region in-between both jet bases of 250 RS (Schwarzschild radii) perpendicular to the jet axes. This size estimate supports previous studies of the jets expansion profile which suggest two breaks of the profile at around 300 RS and 10000 RS distances to the core. Furthermore, we estimated the magnetic field to be 1.25 Gauss at a distance of 22 {\mu}as from the central engine by fitting a synchrotron-self absorption spectrum to the innermost emission feature, which shows a spectral turn-over at about 130 GHz. Assuming a purely poloidal magnetic field, this implies an upper limit on the magnetic field strength at the event horizon of 26000 Gauss, which is consistent with previous measurements. The complex, low-brightness, double-sided jet structure in NGC 1052 makes it a challenge to detect the source at millimeter (mm) wavelengths. However, our first EHT observations have demonstrated that detection is possible up to at least 230 GHz. This study offers a glimpse through the dense surrounding torus and into the innermost central region, where the jets are formed. This has enabled us to finally resolve this region and provide improved constraints on its expansion and magnetic field strength., Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, published in A&A

The 2017 observing campaign of the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) delivered the first very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) images at the observing frequency of 230 GHz, leading to a number of unique studies on black holes and relativistic jets from active galactic nuclei (AGN). In total, eighteen sources were observed: the main science targets, Sgr A* and M87 along with various calibrators. We investigated the morphology of the sixteen AGN in the EHT 2017 data set, focusing on the properties of the VLBI cores: size, flux density, and brightness temperature. We studied their dependence on the observing frequency in order to compare it with the Blandford-K\"onigl (BK) jet model. We modeled the source structure of seven AGN in the EHT 2017 data set using linearly polarized circular Gaussian components and collected results for the other nine AGN from dedicated EHT publications, complemented by lower frequency data in the 2-86 GHz range. Then, we studied the dependences of the VLBI core flux density, size, and brightness temperature on the frequency measured in the AGN host frame. We compared the observations with the BK jet model and estimated the magnetic field strength dependence on the distance from the central black hole. Our results indicate a deviation from the standard BK model, particularly in the decrease of the brightness temperature with the observing frequency. Either bulk acceleration of the jet material, energy transfer from the magnetic field to the particles, or both are required to explain the observations.

Using the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT), the gravitationally lensed rings around the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 (M87) and Sagittarius A* (Sgr A*) have now been successfully imaged at a resolution under 10 gravitational radii (R$_{\rm g}$ $ = \rm{GM/c^2}$). To expand studies beyond M87 and Sgr A*, we have constructed the Event Horizon and Environs (ETHER) sample, a comprehensive database encompassing approximately 3.15 million SMBH mass estimates, $\sim$ 20,000 Very-Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) radio flux densities, and $\sim$ 36,000 hard X-ray flux densities. This database is designed to identify and optimize target selection for the EHT and its upgrades on the ground and in space. We have identified a Gold Sample (GS) of nearby low-luminosity Active Galactic Nuclei (AGNs) within it that are ideal for studying jet bases and potentially imaging black hole shadows. We observed 27 of these AGNs using the EHT from 2022 to 2024, providing an opportunity to resolve and image accretion flows and jets at resolutions of $\leq$ 100 R$_{\rm g}$. Only a few SMBHs have sufficiently high enough flux density to be imaged at scales of $\leq$ 50 R$_{\rm g}$ with the present EHT. Among these are M87, Sgr A*, NGC4594 (Sombrero/M104), NGC4261, and NGC4374 (Messier 84/M84). Of these, NGC4261, Sombrero, and M84 have been observed and/or are scheduled for deep imaging with EHT+ALMA from 2023 to 2025. Sombrero, NGC4261, M84, NGC4278, and NGC5232 are clearly detected in our EHT+ALMA observations in 2022, indicating that the 230 GHz flux density from the accretion flows is significantly high. Ongoing imaging of the ETHER GS will enable measurements of black hole mass and spin, help constrain General Relativity, and enrich our understanding of jet launching and accretion inflows across a broad multi-parameter space, including black hole mass, spin, accretion rate, and orientation., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures, 1 table, published in Proceedings of the 16th EVN Symposium, Ed. E. Ros, P. Benke, S.A. Dzib, I. Rottmann, & J.A. Zensus, Bonn: Max-Planck-Institut f\"ur Radioastronomie, 2024, pages 75-84, https://cloud.mpifr-bonn.mpg.de/index.php/s/BkX2CC2Xjn2aKR4

Causal discovery aims to automatically uncover causal relationships from data, a capability with significant potential across many scientific disciplines. However, its real-world applications remain limited. Current methods often rely on unrealistic assumptions and are evaluated only on simple synthetic toy datasets, often with inadequate evaluation metrics. In this paper, we substantiate these claims by performing a systematic review of the recent causal discovery literature. We present applications in biology, neuroscience, and Earth sciences - fields where causal discovery holds promise for addressing key challenges. We highlight available simulated and real-world datasets from these domains and discuss common assumption violations that have spurred the development of new methods. Our goal is to encourage the community to adopt better evaluation practices by utilizing realistic datasets and more adequate metrics., Comment: 39 pages, 8 figures

In this article, we examine the H\"older regularity of solutions to equations involving a mixed local-nonlocal nonlinear nonhomogeneous operator $\fp + \fqs$ with singular data, under the minimal assumption that $p> sq$. The regularity result is twofold: we establish interior gradient H\"older regularity for locally bounded data and boundary regularity for singular data. We prove both boundary H\"older and boundary gradient H\"older regularity depending on the degree of singularity. Additionally, we establish a strong comparison principle for this class of problems, which holds independent significance. As the applications of these qualitative results, we further study sublinear and subcritical perturbations of singular nonlinearity.

Given two sets of elements (such as cell types and drug compounds), researchers typically only have access to a limited subset of their interactions. The task of causal imputation involves using this subset to predict unobserved interactions. Squires et al. (2022) have proposed two estimators for this task based on the synthetic interventions (SI) estimator: SI-A (for actions) and SI-C (for contexts). We extend their work and introduce a novel causal imputation estimator, generalized synthetic interventions (GSI). We prove the identifiability of this estimator for data generated from a more complex latent factor model. On synthetic and real data we show empirically that it recovers or outperforms their estimators.

All four invariants of the mutual-visibility problem and, all four invariants of the general position problem are determined for glued binary trees. The number of the corresponding extremal sets is obtained in each of the eight situations. The results are further extended to glued $t$-ary trees, and some of them also to generalized glued binary trees.

A central goal of machine learning is generalization. While the No Free Lunch Theorem states that we cannot obtain theoretical guarantees for generalization without further assumptions, in practice we observe that simple models which explain the training data generalize best: a principle called Occam's razor. Despite the need for simple models, most current approaches in machine learning only minimize the training error, and at best indirectly promote simplicity through regularization or architecture design. Here, we draw a connection between Occam's razor and in-context learning: an emergent ability of certain sequence models like Transformers to learn at inference time from past observations in a sequence. In particular, we show that the next-token prediction loss used to train in-context learners is directly equivalent to a data compression technique called prequential coding, and that minimizing this loss amounts to jointly minimizing both the training error and the complexity of the model that was implicitly learned from context. Our theory and the empirical experiments we use to support it not only provide a normative account of in-context learning, but also elucidate the shortcomings of current in-context learning methods, suggesting ways in which they can be improved. We make our code available at https://github.com/3rdCore/PrequentialCode.

Scientific research often seeks to understand the causal structure underlying high-level variables in a system. For example, climate scientists study how phenomena, such as El Ni\~no, affect other climate processes at remote locations across the globe. However, scientists typically collect low-level measurements, such as geographically distributed temperature readings. From these, one needs to learn both a mapping to causally-relevant latent variables, such as a high-level representation of the El Ni\~no phenomenon and other processes, as well as the causal model over them. The challenge is that this task, called causal representation learning, is highly underdetermined from observational data alone, requiring other constraints during learning to resolve the indeterminacies. In this work, we consider a temporal model with a sparsity assumption, namely single-parent decoding: each observed low-level variable is only affected by a single latent variable. Such an assumption is reasonable in many scientific applications that require finding groups of low-level variables, such as extracting regions from geographically gridded measurement data in climate research or capturing brain regions from neural activity data. We demonstrate the identifiability of the resulting model and propose a differentiable method, Causal Discovery with Single-parent Decoding (CDSD), that simultaneously learns the underlying latents and a causal graph over them. We assess the validity of our theoretical results using simulated data and showcase the practical validity of our method in an application to real-world data from the climate science field., Comment: 33 pages, 17 figures

(abridged) Characterizing duty cycles of recurrent phases of dormancy and activity in supermassive black holes in active galactic nuclei is crucial in understanding impact of energy released on host galaxies and their evolution. However, identifying sources in quiescent and restarted phases is challenging. Our goal is to identify and characterize a substantial sample of radio galaxies in restarted phase and explore core prominence as a signature of this activity. We expand our prior study from a $30\,\mathrm{deg^2}$ area in Lockman Hole to a larger $424\,\mathrm{deg^2}$ region in Hobby-Eberly Telescope Dark Energy Experiment (HETDEX) field using visually selected core-dominated radio galaxies. We used 144 MHz LOFAR survey images to identify galaxies with restarting jets. By applying selection criteria, including radio core dominance, low surface brightness extended emission, spectral index properties, and morphology, we found 69 candidate restarted radio galaxies. These candidates show diverse intrinsic morphology, spanning FRI, FRII, core-with-halo, and asymmetric forms, suggesting different progenitors. Among these, nine galaxies exhibit ultra-steep spectrum extended emission combined with high radio core prominence, representing previous and current epochs of jet activity. This subset supports a model where the switch-on and switch-off mechanism occurs with fast duty cycle. The restarted candidates span radio luminosities from log$_{10}$(L$_\mathrm{144 MHz}$/$\mathrm{WHz^{-1}}$) = 23.24 to 26.80, with sizes between 88 and 1659 kpc, including 16 giant radio galaxies. Their total stellar content aligns with massive elliptical galaxies. Our findings at $z<0.4$ suggest that many restarting galaxies are not found in rich cluster environments, consistent with broader radio-galaxy population. This study confirms core prominence as an effective parameter for selecting restarted radio sources., Comment: 28 pages, 18 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in A&A

In this article, we deal with the fine boundary regularity, a weighted H\"{o}lder regularity of weak solutions to the problem involving the fractional $(p,q)$-Laplacian denoted by \begin{eqnarray*} \begin{array}{rll} (-\Delta)_{p}^{s} u + (-\Delta)_{q}^{s} u &= f(x) &\text{ in } \Omega u&=0 &\text{ in } \mathbb{R}^N\setminus\Omega; \end{array} \end{eqnarray*} where $\Omega$ is a $C^{1,1}$ bounded domain and $2 \leq p \leq q <\infty.$ For $0

Many causal systems such as biological processes in cells can only be observed indirectly via measurements, such as gene expression. Causal representation learning -- the task of correctly mapping low-level observations to latent causal variables -- could advance scientific understanding by enabling inference of latent variables such as pathway activation. In this paper, we develop methods for inferring latent variables from multiple related datasets (environments) and tasks. As a running example, we consider the task of predicting a phenotype from gene expression, where we often collect data from multiple cell types or organisms that are related in known ways. The key insight is that the mapping from latent variables driven by gene expression to the phenotype of interest changes sparsely across closely related environments. To model sparse changes, we introduce Tree-Based Regularization (TBR), an objective that minimizes both prediction error and regularizes closely related environments to learn similar predictors. We prove that under assumptions about the degree of sparse changes, TBR identifies the true latent variables up to some simple transformations. We evaluate the theory empirically with both simulations and ground-truth gene expression data. We find that TBR recovers the latent causal variables better than related methods across these settings, even under settings that violate some assumptions of the theory.

Large autoregressive models like Transformers can solve tasks through in-context learning (ICL) without learning new weights, suggesting avenues for efficiently solving new tasks. For many tasks, e.g., linear regression, the data factorizes: examples are independent given a task latent that generates the data, e.g., linear coefficients. While an optimal predictor leverages this factorization by inferring task latents, it is unclear if Transformers implicitly do so or if they instead exploit heuristics and statistical shortcuts enabled by attention layers. Both scenarios have inspired active ongoing work. In this paper, we systematically investigate the effect of explicitly inferring task latents. We minimally modify the Transformer architecture with a bottleneck designed to prevent shortcuts in favor of more structured solutions, and then compare performance against standard Transformers across various ICL tasks. Contrary to intuition and some recent works, we find little discernible difference between the two; biasing towards task-relevant latent variables does not lead to better out-of-distribution performance, in general. Curiously, we find that while the bottleneck effectively learns to extract latent task variables from context, downstream processing struggles to utilize them for robust prediction. Our study highlights the intrinsic limitations of Transformers in achieving structured ICL solutions that generalize, and shows that while inferring the right latents aids interpretability, it is not sufficient to alleviate this problem.

Supervised learning approaches for causal discovery from observational data often achieve competitive performance despite seemingly avoiding explicit assumptions that traditional methods make for identifiability. In this work, we investigate CSIvA (Ke et al., 2023), a transformer-based model promising to train on synthetic data and transfer to real data. First, we bridge the gap with existing identifiability theory and show that constraints on the training data distribution implicitly define a prior on the test observations. Consistent with classical approaches, good performance is achieved when we have a good prior on the test data, and the underlying model is identifiable. At the same time, we find new trade-offs. Training on datasets generated from different classes of causal models, unambiguously identifiable in isolation, improves the test generalization. Performance is still guaranteed, as the ambiguous cases resulting from the mixture of identifiable causal models are unlikely to occur (which we formally prove). Overall, our study finds that amortized causal discovery still needs to obey identifiability theory, but it also differs from classical methods in how the assumptions are formulated, trading more reliance on assumptions on the noise type for fewer hypotheses on the mechanisms.

Numerous decision-making tasks require estimating causal effects under interventions on different parts of a system. As practitioners consider using large language models (LLMs) to automate decisions, studying their causal reasoning capabilities becomes crucial. A recent line of work evaluates LLMs ability to retrieve commonsense causal facts, but these evaluations do not sufficiently assess how LLMs reason about interventions. Motivated by the role that interventions play in causal inference, in this paper, we conduct empirical analyses to evaluate whether LLMs can accurately update their knowledge of a data-generating process in response to an intervention. We create benchmarks that span diverse causal graphs (e.g., confounding, mediation) and variable types, and enable a study of intervention-based reasoning. These benchmarks allow us to isolate the ability of LLMs to accurately predict changes resulting from their ability to memorize facts or find other shortcuts. We evaluate six LLMs on the benchmarks, finding that GPT models show promising accuracy at predicting the intervention effects., Comment: 17 pages

The general position problem in graphs is to find the maximum number of vertices that can be selected such that no three vertices lie on a common shortest path. The mutual-visibility problem in graphs is to find the maximum number of vertices that can be selected such that every pair of vertices in the collection has a shortest path between them with no vertex from the collection as an internal vertex. In this paper, the general position problem and the mutual-visibility problem is investigated in double graphs and in Mycielskian graphs. Sharp general bounds are proved, in particular involving the total mutual-visibility number and the outer mutual-visibility number of base graphs. Several exact values are also determined, in particular the mutual-visibility number of the double graphs and of the Mycielskian of cycles.

Despite significant investment into safety training, large language models (LLMs) deployed in the real world still suffer from numerous vulnerabilities. One perspective on LLM safety training is that it algorithmically forbids the model from answering toxic or harmful queries. To assess the effectiveness of safety training, in this work, we study forbidden tasks, i.e., tasks the model is designed to refuse to answer. Specifically, we investigate whether in-context learning (ICL) can be used to re-learn forbidden tasks despite the explicit fine-tuning of the model to refuse them. We first examine a toy example of refusing sentiment classification to demonstrate the problem. Then, we use ICL on a model fine-tuned to refuse to summarise made-up news articles. Finally, we investigate whether ICL can undo safety training, which could represent a major security risk. For the safety task, we look at Vicuna-7B, Starling-7B, and Llama2-7B. We show that the attack works out-of-the-box on Starling-7B and Vicuna-7B but fails on Llama2-7B. Finally, we propose an ICL attack that uses the chat template tokens like a prompt injection attack to achieve a better attack success rate on Vicuna-7B and Starling-7B. Trigger Warning: the appendix contains LLM-generated text with violence, suicide, and misinformation., Comment: 19 pages, 7 figures

Experiments at synchrotron radiation sources and X-ray Free-Electron Lasers in the soft X-ray energy range ($250$eV--$2$keV) stand to benefit from the adaptation of the hybrid silicon detector technology for low energy photons. Inverse Low Gain Avalanche Diode (iLGAD) sensors provide an internal gain, enhancing the signal-to-noise ratio and allowing single photon detection below $1$keV using hybrid detectors. In addition, an optimization of the entrance window of these sensors enhances their quantum efficiency (QE). In this work, the QE and the gain of a batch of different iLGAD diodes with optimized entrance windows were characterized using soft X-rays at the Surface/Interface:Microscopy beamline of the Swiss Light Source synchrotron. Above $250$eV, the QE is larger than $55\%$ for all sensor variations, while the charge collection efficiency is close to $100\%$. The average gain depends on the gain layer design of the iLGADs and increases with photon energy. A fitting procedure is introduced to extract the multiplication factor as a function of the absorption depth of X-ray photons inside the sensors. In particular, the multiplication factors for electron- and hole-triggered avalanches are estimated, corresponding to photon absorption beyond or before the gain layer, respectively., Comment: 16 pages, 8 figures

Accurate rainfall forecasting is crucial for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation in the North-East region of India, which is prone to extreme weather events such as floods and landslides. In this study, we investigated the use of two data-driven methods, Dynamic Mode Decomposition (DMD) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), for rainfall forecasting using daily rainfall data collected from India Meteorological Department in northeast region over a period of 118 years. We conducted a comparative analysis of these methods to determine their relative effectiveness in predicting rainfall patterns. Using historical rainfall data from multiple weather stations, we trained and validated our models to forecast future rainfall patterns. Our results indicate that both DMD and LSTM are effective in forecasting rainfall, with LSTM outperforming DMD in terms of accuracy, revealing that LSTM has the ability to capture complex nonlinear relationships in the data, making it a powerful tool for rainfall forecasting. Our findings suggest that data-driven methods such as DMD and deep learning approaches like LSTM can significantly improve rainfall forecasting accuracy in the North-East region of India, helping to mitigate the impact of extreme weather events and enhance the region's resilience to climate change., Comment: Paper is under review at ICMC 2024

Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) has seen mainstream adoption lately, especially in the form of consumer-facing, open-ended, text and image generating models. However, the use of such systems raises significant ethical and safety concerns, including privacy violations, misinformation and intellectual property theft. The potential for generative AI to displace human creativity and livelihoods has also been under intense scrutiny. To mitigate these risks, there is an urgent need of policies and regulations responsible and ethical development in the field of generative AI. Existing and proposed centralized regulations by governments to rein in AI face criticisms such as not having sufficient clarity or uniformity, lack of interoperability across lines of jurisdictions, restricting innovation, and hindering free market competition. Decentralized protections via crowdsourced safety tools and mechanisms are a potential alternative. However, they have clear deficiencies in terms of lack of adequacy of oversight and difficulty of enforcement of ethical and safety standards, and are thus not enough by themselves as a regulation mechanism. We propose a marriage of these two strategies via a framework we call Dual Governance. This framework proposes a cooperative synergy between centralized government regulations in a U.S. specific context and safety mechanisms developed by the community to protect stakeholders from the harms of generative AI. By implementing the Dual Governance framework, we posit that innovation and creativity can be promoted while ensuring safe and ethical deployment of generative AI.

The nearby radio galaxy M87 is a prime target for studying black hole accretion and jet formation^{1,2}. Event Horizon Telescope observations of M87 in 2017, at a wavelength of 1.3 mm, revealed a ring-like structure, which was interpreted as gravitationally lensed emission around a central black hole^3. Here we report images of M87 obtained in 2018, at a wavelength of 3.5 mm, showing that the compact radio core is spatially resolved. High-resolution imaging shows a ring-like structure of 8.4_{-1.1}^{+0.5} Schwarzschild radii in diameter, approximately 50% larger than that seen at 1.3 mm. The outer edge at 3.5 mm is also larger than that at 1.3 mm. This larger and thicker ring indicates a substantial contribution from the accretion flow with absorption effects in addition to the gravitationally lensed ring-like emission. The images show that the edge-brightened jet connects to the accretion flow of the black hole. Close to the black hole, the emission profile of the jet-launching region is wider than the expected profile of a black-hole-driven jet, suggesting the possible presence of a wind associated with the accretion flow., Comment: 50 pages, 18 figures, 3 tables, author's version of the paper published in Nature

We consider a semipositone problem involving the fractional $p$ Laplace operator of the form \begin{equation*} \begin{aligned} (-\Delta)_p^s u &=\mu( u^{r}-1) \text{ in } \Omega,\\ u &>0 \text{ in }\Omega,\\ u &=0 \text{ on }\Omega^{c}, \end{aligned} \end{equation*} where $\Omega$ is a smooth bounded convex domain in $\mathbb{R}^N$, $p-1

We consider the boundary value problem $-\Delta_p u_\lambda -\Delta_q u_\lambda =\lambda g(x) u_\lambda^{-\beta}$ in $\Omega$ , $u_\lambda=0$ on $\partial \Omega$ with $u_\lambda>0$ in $\Omega.$ We assume $\Omega$ is a bounded open set in $\mathbb{R}^N$ with smooth boundary, $1

We analyze a non-linear elliptic boundary value problem, that involves $(p, q)$ Laplace operator, for the existence of its positive solution in an arbitrary smooth bounded domain. The non-linearity here is driven by a continuous function in $(0,\infty)$ which is singular, monotonically increasing and eventually positive. We prove the existence of a positive solution of this problem using a fixed point theorem due to Amann\cite{amann1976fixed}. In addition, for a specific nonlinearity we derive that the obtained solution is maximal in nature. The main results obtained here are first of its kind for a $(p, q)$ Laplace operator in an arbitrary bounded domain.

We show the developments carried out to improve the silicon sensor technology for the detection of soft X-rays with hybrid X-ray detectors. An optimization of the entrance window technology is required to improve the quantum efficiency. The LGAD technology can be used to amplify the signal generated by the X-rays and to increase the signal-to-noise ratio, making single photon resolution in the soft X-ray energy range possible. In this paper, we report first results obtained from an LGAD sensor production with an optimized thin entrance window. Single photon detection of soft X-rays down to 452~eV has been demonstrated from measurements, with a signal-to-noise ratio better than 20., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures

We consider the problem of estimating social influence, the effect that a person's behavior has on the future behavior of their peers. The key challenge is that shared behavior between friends could be equally explained by influence or by two other confounding factors: 1) latent traits that caused people to both become friends and engage in the behavior, and 2) latent preferences for the behavior. This paper addresses the challenges of estimating social influence with three contributions. First, we formalize social influence as a causal effect, one which requires inferences about hypothetical interventions. Second, we develop Poisson Influence Factorization (PIF), a method for estimating social influence from observational data. PIF fits probabilistic factor models to networks and behavior data to infer variables that serve as substitutes for the confounding latent traits. Third, we develop assumptions under which PIF recovers estimates of social influence. We empirically study PIF with semi-synthetic and real data from Last.fm, and conduct a sensitivity analysis. We find that PIF estimates social influence most accurately compared to related methods and remains robust under some violations of its assumptions., Comment: To appear at CLeaR 2022 (1st Conference on Causal Learning and Reasoning)

In this paper we prove a strong comparison principle for radially decreasing solutions $u,v\in C_{0}^{1,\alpha}(\Bar{B_R})$ of the singular equations $-\Delta_p u-\frac{1}{u^\delta}=f(x)$ and $-\Delta_p v-\frac{1}{v^\delta}=g(x)$ in $B_R$. Here we assume that $ 12$ a counterexample is provided where the strong comparison principle is violated. As an application of strong comparison principle, we prove a three solution theorem for p-Laplace equation and illustrate with an example., Comment: 9 pages, 0 figure

In this paper we propose a novel socio-inspired convolutional neural network (CNN) deep learning model for image splicing detection. Based on the premise that learning from the detection of coarsely spliced image regions can improve the detection of visually imperceptible finely spliced image forgeries, the proposed model referred to as, MissMarple, is a twin CNN network involving feature-transfer learning. Results obtained from training and testing the proposed model using the benchmark datasets like Columbia splicing, WildWeb, DSO1 and a proposed dataset titled AbhAS consisting of realistic splicing forgeries revealed improvement in detection accuracy over the existing deep learning models., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures and 15 tables

Synthetic control (SC) methods have been widely applied to estimate the causal effect of large-scale interventions, e.g., the state-wide effect of a change in policy. The idea of synthetic controls is to approximate one unit's counterfactual outcomes using a weighted combination of some other units' observed outcomes. The motivating question of this paper is: how does the SC strategy lead to valid causal inferences? We address this question by re-formulating the causal inference problem targeted by SC with a more fine-grained model, where we change the unit of the analysis from "large units" (e.g., states) to "small units" (e.g., individuals in states). Under this re-formulation, we derive sufficient conditions for the non-parametric causal identification of the causal effect. We highlight two implications of the reformulation: (1) it clarifies where "linearity" comes from, and how it falls naturally out of the more fine-grained and flexible model, and (2) it suggests new ways of using available data with SC methods for valid causal inference, in particular, new ways of selecting observations from which to estimate the counterfactual.