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Nonparametric cointegrating regression models have been extensively used in financial markets, stock prices, heavy traffic, climate data sets, and energy markets. Models with parametric regression functions can be more appealing in practice compared to non-parametric forms, but do result in potential functional misspecification. Thus, there exists a vast literature on developing a model specification test for parametric forms of regression functions. In this paper, we develop two test statistics which are applicable for the endogenous regressors driven by long memory and semi-long memory input shocks in the regression model. The limit distributions of the test statistics under these two scenarios are complicated and cannot be effectively used in practice. To overcome this difficulty, we use the subsampling method and compute the test statistics on smaller blocks of the data to construct their empirical distributions. Throughout, Monte Carlo simulation studies are used to illustrate the properties of test statistics. We also provide an empirical example of relating gross domestic product to total output of carbon dioxide in two European countries.

Block-based resampling estimators have been intensively investigated for weakly dependent time processes, which has helped to inform implementation (e.g., best block sizes). However, little is known about resampling performance and block sizes under strong or long-range dependence. To establish guideposts in block selection, we consider a broad class of strongly dependent time processes, formed by a transformation of a stationary long-memory Gaussian series, and examine block-based resampling estimators for the variance of the prototypical sample mean; extensions to general statistical functionals are also considered. Unlike weak dependence, the properties of resampling estimators under strong dependence are shown to depend intricately on the nature of non-linearity in the time series (beyond Hermite ranks) in addition the long-memory coefficient and block size. Additionally, the intuition has often been that optimal block sizes should be larger under strong dependence (say $O(n^{1/2})$ for a sample size $n$) than the optimal order $O(n^{1/3})$ known under weak dependence. This intuition turns out to be largely incorrect, though a block order $O(n^{1/2})$ may be reasonable (and even optimal) in many cases, owing to non-linearity in a long-memory time series. While optimal block sizes are more complex under long-range dependence compared to short-range, we provide a consistent data-driven rule for block selection, and numerical studies illustrate that the guides for block selection perform well in other block-based problems with long-memory time series, such as distribution estimation and strategies for testing Hermite rank.

Statistical prediction plays an important role in many decision processes such as university budgeting (depending on the number of students who will enroll), capital budgeting (depending on the remaining lifetime of a fleet of systems), the needed amount of cash reserves for warranty expenses (depending on the number of warranty returns), and whether a product recall is needed (depending on the number of potentially life-threatening product failures). In statistical inference, likelihood ratios have a long history of use for decision making relating to model parameters (e.g., in evidence-based medicine and forensics). We propose a general prediction method, based on a likelihood ratio (LR) involving both the data and a future random variable. This general approach provides a way to identify prediction interval methods that have excellent statistical properties. For example, if a prediction method can be based on a pivotal quantity, our LR-based method will often identify it. For applications where a pivotal quantity does not exist, the LR-based method provides a procedure with good coverage properties for both continuous or discrete-data prediction applications.

This paper reviews two main types of prediction interval methods under a parametric framework. First, we describe methods based on an (approximate) pivotal quantity. Examples include the plug-in, pivotal, and calibration methods. Then we describe methods based on a predictive distribution (sometimes derived based on the likelihood). Examples include Bayesian, fiducial, and direct-bootstrap methods. Several examples involving continuous distributions along with simulation studies to evaluate coverage probability properties are provided. We provide specific connections among different prediction interval methods for the (log-)location-scale family of distributions. This paper also discusses general prediction interval methods for discrete data, using the binomial and Poisson distributions as examples. We also overview methods for dependent data, with application to time series, spatial data, and Markov random fields, for example.

This paper describes prediction methods for the number of future events from a population of units associated with an on-going time-to-event process. Examples include the prediction of warranty returns and the prediction of the number of future product failures that could cause serious threats to property or life. Important decisions such as whether a product recall should be mandated are often based on such predictions. Data, generally right-censored (and sometimes left truncated and right-censored), are used to estimate the parameters of a time-to-event distribution. This distribution can then be used to predict the number of events over future periods of time. Such predictions are sometimes called within-sample predictions and differ from other prediction problems considered in most of the prediction literature. This paper shows that the plug-in (also known as estimative or naive) prediction method is not asymptotically correct (i.e., for large amounts of data, the coverage probability always fails to converge to the nominal confidence level). However, a commonly used prediction calibration method is shown to be asymptotically correct for within-sample predictions, and two alternative predictive-distributionbased methods that perform better than the calibration method are presented and justified.

For spatial and network data, we consider models formed from a Markov random field (MRF) structure and the specification of a conditional distribution for each observation. Fast simulation from such MRF models is often an important consideration, particularly when repeated generation of large numbers of data sets is required. However, a standard Gibbs strategy for simulating from MRF models involves single-site updates, performed with the conditional univariate distribution of each observation in a sequential manner, whereby a complete Gibbs iteration may become computationally involved even for moderate samples. As an alternative, we describe a general way to simulate from MRF models using Gibbs sampling with "concliques" (i.e., groups of non-neighboring observations). Compared to standard Gibbs sampling, this simulation scheme can be much faster by reducing Gibbs steps and independently updating all observations per conclique at once. The speed improvement depends on the number of concliques relative to the sample size for simulation, and order-of-magnitude speed increases are possible with many MRF models (e.g., having appropriately bounded neighborhoods). We detail the simulation method, establish its validity, and assess its computational performance through numerical studies, where speed advantages are shown for several spatial and network examples., Comment: 23 pages, 6 figures

The block bootstrap approximates sampling distributions from dependent data by resampling data blocks. A fundamental problem is establishing its consistency for the distribution of a sample mean, as a prototypical statistic. We use a structural relationship with subsampling to characterize the bootstrap in a new and general manner. While subsampling and block bootstrap differ, the block bootstrap distribution of a sample mean equals that of a $k$-fold self-convolution of a subsampling distribution. Motivated by this, we provide simple necessary and sufficient conditions for a convolved subsampling estimator to produce a normal limit that matches the target of bootstrap estimation. These conditions may be linked to consistency properties of an original subsampling distribution, which are often obtainable under minimal assumptions. Through several examples, the results are shown to validate the block bootstrap for means under significantly weakened assumptions in many existing (and some new) dependence settings, which also addresses a standing conjecture of Politis, Romano and Wolf(1999). Beyond sample means, the convolved subsampling estimator may not match the block bootstrap, but instead provides a hybrid-resampling estimator of interest in its own right. For general statistics with normal limits, results also establish the consistency of convolved subsampling under minimal dependence conditions, including non-stationarity., Comment: 42 pages

This paper develops empirical likelihood methodology for irregularly spaced spatial data in the frequency domain. Unlike the frequency domain empirical likelihood (FDEL) methodology for time series (on a regular grid), the formulation of the spatial FDEL needs special care due to lack of the usual orthogonality properties of the discrete Fourier transform for irregularly spaced data and due to presence of nontrivial bias in the periodogram under different spatial asymptotic structures. A spatial FDEL is formulated in the paper taking into account the effects of these factors. The main results of the paper show that Wilks' phenomenon holds for a scaled version of the logarithm of the proposed empirical likelihood ratio statistic in the sense that it is asymptotically distribution-free and has a chi-squared limit. As a result, the proposed spatial FDEL method can be used to build nonparametric, asymptotically correct confidence regions and tests for covariance parameters that are defined through spectral estimating equations, for irregularly spaced spatial data. In comparison to the more common studentization approach, a major advantage of our method is that it does not require explicit estimation of the standard error of an estimator, which is itself a very difficult problem as the asymptotic variances of many common estimators depend on intricate interactions among several population quantities, including the spectral density of the spatial process, the spatial sampling density and the spatial asymptotic structure. Results from a numerical study are also reported to illustrate the methodology and its finite sample properties., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/14-AOS1291 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Listing all triangles is a fundamental graph operation. Triangles can have important interpretations in real-world graphs, especially social and other interaction networks. Despite the lack of provably efficient (linear, or slightly super-linear) worst-case algorithms for this problem, practitioners run simple, efficient heuristics to find all triangles in graphs with millions of vertices. How are these heuristics exploiting the structure of these special graphs to provide major speedups in running time? We study one of the most prevalent algorithms used by practitioners. A trivial algorithm enumerates all paths of length $2$, and checks if each such path is incident to a triangle. A good heuristic is to enumerate only those paths of length $2$ where the middle vertex has the lowest degree. It is easily implemented and is empirically known to give remarkable speedups over the trivial algorithm. We study the behavior of this algorithm over graphs with heavy-tailed degree distributions, a defining feature of real-world graphs. The erased configuration model (ECM) efficiently generates a graph with asymptotically (almost) any desired degree sequence. We show that the expected running time of this algorithm over the distribution of graphs created by the ECM is controlled by the $\ell_{4/3}$-norm of the degree sequence. Norms of the degree sequence are a measure of the heaviness of the tail, and it is precisely this feature that allows non-trivial speedups of simple triangle enumeration algorithms. As a corollary of our main theorem, we prove expected linear-time performance for degree sequences following a power law with exponent $\alpha \geq 7/3$, and non-trivial speedup whenever $\alpha \in (2,3)$., Comment: Conference version in Innovations of Theoretical Computer Science (ITCS) 2014

We investigate the accuracy of two general non-parametric methods for estimating optimal block lengths for block bootstraps with time series - the first proposed in the seminal paper of Hall, Horowitz and Jing (Biometrika 82 (1995) 561-574) and the second from Lahiri et al. (Stat. Methodol. 4 (2007) 292-321). The relative performances of these general methods have been unknown and, to provide a comparison, we focus on rates of convergence for these block length selectors for the moving block bootstrap (MBB) with variance estimation problems under the smooth function model. It is shown that, with suitable choice of tuning parameters, the optimal convergence rate of the first method is $O_p(n^{-1/6})$ where $n$ denotes the sample size. The optimal convergence rate of the second method, with the same number of tuning parameters, is shown to be $O_p(n^{-2/7})$, suggesting that the second method may generally have better large-sample properties for block selection in block bootstrap applications beyond variance estimation. We also compare the two general methods with other plug-in methods specifically designed for block selection in variance estimation, where the best possible convergence rate is shown to be $O_p(n^{-1/3})$ and achieved by a method from Politis and White (Econometric Rev. 23 (2004) 53-70)., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.3150/13-BEJ511 the Bernoulli (http://isi.cbs.nl/bernoulli/) by the International Statistical Institute/Bernoulli Society (http://isi.cbs.nl/BS/bshome.htm)

Standard blockwise empirical likelihood (BEL) for stationary, weakly dependent time series requires specifying a fixed block length as a tuning parameter for setting confidence regions. This aspect can be difficult and impacts coverage accuracy. As an alternative, this paper proposes a new version of BEL based on a simple, though nonstandard, data-blocking rule which uses a data block of every possible length. Consequently, the method does not involve the usual block selection issues and is also anticipated to exhibit better coverage performance. Its nonstandard blocking scheme, however, induces nonstandard asymptotics and requires a significantly different development compared to standard BEL. We establish the large-sample distribution of log-ratio statistics from the new BEL method for calibrating confidence regions for mean or smooth function parameters of time series. This limit law is not the usual chi-square one, but is distribution-free and can be reproduced through straightforward simulations. Numerical studies indicate that the proposed method generally exhibits better coverage accuracy than standard BEL., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/13-AOS1174 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

This paper develops goodness of fit statistics that can be used to formally assess Markov random field models for spatial data, when the model distributions are discrete or continuous and potentially parametric. Test statistics are formed from generalized spatial residuals which are collected over groups of nonneighboring spatial observations, called concliques. Under a hypothesized Markov model structure, spatial residuals within each conclique are shown to be independent and identically distributed as uniform variables. The information from a series of concliques can be then pooled into goodness of fit statistics. Under some conditions, large sample distributions of these statistics are explicitly derived for testing both simple and composite hypotheses, where the latter involves additional parametric estimation steps. The distributional results are verified through simulation, and a data example illustrates the method for model assessment., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOS948 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

Because the stationary bootstrap resamples data blocks of random length, this method has been thought to have the largest asymptotic variance among block bootstraps Lahiri [Ann. Statist. 27 (1999) 386--404]. It is shown here that the variance of the stationary bootstrap surprisingly matches that of a block bootstrap based on nonrandom, nonoverlapping blocks. This argument translates the variance expansion into the frequency domain and provides a unified way of determining variances for other block bootstraps. Some previous results on the stationary bootstrap, related to asymptotic relative efficiency and optimal block size, are also updated., Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/07-AOS567 the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

This paper introduces a version of empirical likelihood based on the periodogram and spectral estimating equations. This formulation handles dependent data through a data transformation (i.e., a Fourier transform) and is developed in terms of the spectral distribution rather than a time domain probability distribution. The asymptotic properties of frequency domain empirical likelihood are studied for linear time processes exhibiting both short- and long-range dependence. The method results in likelihood ratios which can be used to build nonparametric, asymptotically correct confidence regions for a class of normalized (or ratio) spectral parameters, including autocorrelations. Maximum empirical likelihood estimators are possible, as well as tests of spectral moment conditions. The methodology can be applied to several inference problems such as Whittle estimation and goodness-of-fit testing., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053606000000902 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We consider the problem of determining the optimal block (or subsample) size for a spatial subsampling method for spatial processes observed on regular grids. We derive expansions for the mean square error of the subsampling variance estimator, which yields an expression for the theoretically optimal block size. The optimal block size is shown to depend in an intricate way on the geometry of the spatial sampling region as well as characteristics of the underlying random field. Final expressions for the optimal block size make use of some nontrivial estimates of lattice point counts in shifts of convex sets. Optimal block sizes are computed for sampling regions of a number of commonly encountered shapes. Numerical studies are performed to compare subsampling methods as well as procedures for estimating the theoretically best block size., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/009053604000000779 in the Annals of Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aos/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)