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In 2020, the WHO launched its first global strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer, outlining an ambitious set of targets for countries to achieve over the next decade. At the same time, new tools, technologies, and strategies are in the pipeline that may improve screening performance, expand the reach of prophylactic vaccines, and prevent the acquisition, persistence and progression of oncogenic HPV. Detailed mechanistic modelling can help identify the combinations of current and future strategies to combat cervical cancer. Open-source modelling tools are needed to shift the capacity for such evaluations in-country. Here, we introduce the Human papillomavirus simulator (HPVsim), a new open-source software package for creating flexible agent-based models parameterised with country-specific vital dynamics, structured sexual networks, and co-transmitting HPV genotypes. HPVsim includes a novel methodology for modelling cervical disease progression, designed to be readily adaptable to new forms of screening. The software itself is implemented in Python, has built-in tools for simulating commonly-used interventions, includes a comprehensive set of tests and documentation, and runs quickly (seconds to minutes) on a laptop. Performance is greatly enhanced by HPVsim's multiscale modelling functionality. HPVsim is open source under the MIT License and available via both the Python Package Index (via pip install) and GitHub (hpvsim.org).

Abstract Introduction Improving the delivery of existing evidence‐based interventions to prevent and diagnose HIV is key to Ending the HIV Epidemic in the United States. Structural barriers in the access and delivery of related health services require municipal or state‐level policy changes; however, suboptimal implementation can be addressed directly through interventions designed to improve the reach, effectiveness, adoption or maintenance of available interventions. Our objective was to estimate the cost‐effectiveness and potential epidemiological impact of six real‐world implementation interventions designed to address these barriers and increase the scale of delivery of interventions for HIV testing and pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in three US metropolitan areas. Methods We used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated to replicate HIV microepidemics in Atlanta, Los Angeles (LA) and Miami. We identified six implementation interventions designed to improve HIV testing uptake (“Academic detailing for HIV testing,” “CyBER/testing,” “All About Me”) and PrEP uptake/persistence (“Project SLIP,” “PrEPmate,” “PrEP patient navigation”). Our comparator scenario reflected a scale‐up of interventions with no additional efforts to mitigate implementation and structural barriers. We accounted for potential heterogeneity in population‐level effectiveness across jurisdictions. We sustained implementation interventions over a 10‐year period and evaluated HIV acquisitions averted, costs, quality‐adjusted life years and incremental cost‐effectiveness ratios over a 20‐year time horizon (2023–2042). Results Across jurisdictions, implementation interventions to improve the scale of HIV testing were most cost‐effective in Atlanta and LA (CyBER/testing cost‐saving and All About Me cost‐effective), while interventions for PrEP were most cost‐effective in Miami (two of three were cost‐saving). We estimated that the most impactful HIV testing intervention, CyBER/testing, was projected to avert 111 (95% credible interval: 110–111), 230 (228–233) and 101 (101–103) acquisitions over 20 years in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. The most impactful implementation intervention to improve PrEP engagement, PrEPmate, averted an estimated 936 (929–943), 860 (853–867) and 2152 (2127–2178) acquisitions over 20 years, in Atlanta, LA and Miami, respectively. Conclusions Our results highlight the potential impact of interventions to enhance the implementation of existing evidence‐based interventions for the prevention and diagnosis of HIV.

BackgroundIn line with movement restrictions and physical distancing essential for the control of the COVID-19 pandemic, WHO recommended postponement of all neglected tropical disease (NTD) control activities that involve community-based surveys, active case finding, and mass drug administration in April, 2020. Following revised guidance later in 2020, and after interruptions to NTD programmes of varying lengths, NTD programmes gradually restarted in the context of an ongoing pandemic. However, ongoing challenges and service gaps have been reported. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of the programmatic interruptions and strategies to mitigate this effect.MethodsFor seven NTDs, namely soil-transmitted helminths, schistosomiasis, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, visceral leishmaniasis, and human African trypanosomiasis, we used mathematical transmission models to simulate the effect of programme interruptions on the dynamics of each of these diseases in different endemic settings. We also explored the potential benefit of implementing mitigation strategies, primarily in terms of minimising the delays to control targets.FindingsWe show that the effect of the COVID-19-induced interruption in terms of delay to achieving elimination goals might in some cases be much longer than the duration of the interruption. For schistosomiasis, onchocerciasis, trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, a mean delay of 2-3 years for a 1-year interruption is predicted in areas of highest prevalence. We also show that these delays can largely be mitigated by measures such as additional mass drug administration or enhanced case-finding.InterpretationThe COVID-19 pandemic has brought infectious disease control to the forefront of global consciousness. It is essential that the NTDs, so long neglected in terms of research and financial support, are not overlooked, and remain a priority in health service planning and funding.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Medical Research Council, and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office.

Abstract The transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 within hospitals can exceed that in the general community because of more frequent close proximity interactions (CPIs). However, epidemic risk across wards is still poorly described. We measured CPIs directly using wearable sensors given to all present in a clinical ward over a 36-h period, across 15 wards in three hospitals in April-June 2020. Data were collected from 2114 participants and combined with a simple transmission model describing the arrival of a single index case to the ward to estimate the risk of an outbreak. Estimated epidemic risk ranged four-fold, from 0.12 secondary infections per day in an adult emergency to 0.49 per day in general paediatrics. The risk presented by an index case in a patient varied 20-fold across wards. Using simulation, we assessed the potential impact on outbreak risk of targeting the most connected individuals for prevention. We found that targeting those with the highest cumulative contact hours was most impactful (20% reduction for 5% of the population targeted), and on average resources were better spent targeting patients. This study reveals patterns of interactions between individuals in hospital during a pandemic and opens new routes for research into airborne nosocomial risk.

BackgroundApproaches that allow easy access to pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), such as over-the-counter provision at pharmacies, could facilitate risk-informed PrEP use and lead to lower HIV incidence, but their cost-effectiveness is unknown. We aimed to evaluate conditions under which risk-informed PrEP use is cost-effective.MethodsWe applied a mathematical model of HIV transmission to simulate 3000 setting-scenarios reflecting a range of epidemiological characteristics of communities in sub-Saharan Africa. The prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults (HIV positive and negative) varied from 1·1% to 7·4% (90% range). We hypothesised that if PrEP was made easily available without restriction and with education regarding its use, women and men would use PrEP, with sufficient daily adherence, during so-called seasons of risk (ie, periods in which individuals are at risk of acquiring infection). We refer to this as risk-informed PrEP. For each setting-scenario, we considered the situation in mid-2021 and performed a pairwise comparison of the outcomes of two policies: immediate PrEP scale-up and then continuation for 50 years, and no PrEP. We estimated the relationship between epidemic and programme characteristics and cost-effectiveness of PrEP availability to all during seasons of risk. For our base-case analysis, we assumed a 3-monthly PrEP cost of US$29 (drug $11, HIV test $4, and $14 for additional costs necessary to facilitate education and access), a cost-effectiveness threshold of $500 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted, an annual discount rate of 3%, and a time horizon of 50 years. In sensitivity analyses, we considered a cost-effectiveness threshold of $100 per DALY averted, a discount rate of 7% per annum, the use of PrEP outside of seasons of risk, and reduced uptake of risk-informed PrEP.FindingsIn the context of PrEP scale-up such that 66% (90% range across setting-scenarios 46-81) of HIV-negative people with at least one non-primary condomless sex partner take PrEP in any given period, resulting in 2·6% (0·9-6·0) of all HIV negative adults taking PrEP at any given time, risk-informed PrEP was predicted to reduce HIV incidence by 49% (23-78) over 50 years compared with no PrEP. PrEP was cost-effective in 71% of all setting-scenarios, and cost-effective in 76% of setting-scenarios with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%. In sensitivity analyses with a $100 per DALY averted cost-effectiveness threshold, a 7% per year discount rate, or with PrEP use that was less well risk-informed than in our base case, PrEP was less likely to be cost-effective, but generally remained cost-effective if the prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults was higher than 3%. In sensitivity analyses based on additional setting-scenarios in which risk-informed PrEP was less extensively used, the HIV incidence reduction was smaller, but the cost-effectiveness of risk-informed PrEP was undiminished.InterpretationUnder the assumption that making PrEP easily accessible for all adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of community education leads to risk-informed use, PrEP is likely to be cost-effective in settings with prevalence of HIV viral load greater than 1000 copies per mL among all adults higher than 2%, suggesting the need for implementation of such approaches, with ongoing evaluation.FundingUS Agency for International Development, US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BackgroundUnderstanding the sources of HIV transmission provides a basis for prioritizing HIV prevention resources in specific geographic regions and populations. This study estimated the number, proportion, and rate of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals along the HIV care continuum within different HIV transmission risk groups in 6 US cities.MethodsWe used a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model that draws on racial behavior-specific or ethnic behavior-specific and risk behavior-specific linkage to HIV care and use of HIV prevention services from local, state, and national surveillance sources. We estimated the rate and number of HIV transmissions attributable to individuals in the stage of acute undiagnosed HIV, nonacute undiagnosed HIV, HIV diagnosed but antiretroviral therapy (ART) naïve, off ART, and on ART, stratified by HIV transmission group for the 2019 calendar year.ResultsIndividuals with undiagnosed nonacute HIV infection accounted for the highest proportion of total transmissions in every city, ranging from 36.8% (26.7%-44.9%) in New York City to 64.9% (47.0%-71.6%) in Baltimore. Individuals who had discontinued ART contributed to the second highest percentage of total infections in 4 of 6 cities. Individuals with acute HIV had the highest transmission rate per 100 person-years, ranging from 76.4 (58.9-135.9) in Miami to 160.2 (85.7-302.8) in Baltimore.ConclusionThese findings underline the importance of both early diagnosis and improved ART retention for ending the HIV epidemic in the United States. Differences in the sources of transmission across cities indicate that localized priority setting to effectively address diverse microepidemics at different stages of epidemic control is necessary.

BackgroundIn the USA, Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals continue to be disproportionately affected by HIV. Applying a distributional cost-effectiveness framework, we estimated the cost-effectiveness and epidemiological impact of two combination implementation approaches to identify the approach that best meets the dual objectives of improving population health and reducing racial or ethnic health disparities.MethodsWe adapted a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to characterise HIV micro-epidemics in six US cities: Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, and Seattle. We considered combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions to diagnose, treat, and prevent HIV transmission according to previously documented levels of scale-up. We then identified optimal combination strategies for each city, with the distribution of each intervention implemented according to existing service levels (proportional services approach) and the racial or ethnic distribution of new diagnoses (between Black, Hispanic or Latinx, and White or other ethnicity individuals; equity approach). We estimated total costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of strategies implemented from 2020 to 2030 (health-care perspective; 20-year time horizon; 3% annual discount rate). We estimated three measures of health inequality (between-group variance, index of disparity, Theil index), incidence rate ratios, and rate differences for the selected strategies under each approach.FindingsIn all cities, optimal combination strategies under the equity approach generated more QALYs than those with proportional services, ranging from a 3·1% increase (95% credible interval [CrI] 1·4-5·3) in New York to more than double (101·9% [75·4-134·6]) in Atlanta. Compared with proportional services, the equity approach delivered lower costs over 20 years in all cities except Los Angeles; cost reductions ranged from $22·9 million (95% CrI 5·3-55·7 million) in Seattle to $579·8 million (255·4-940·5 million) in Atlanta. The equity approach also reduced incidence disparities and health inequality measures in all cities except Los Angeles.InterpretationEquity-focused HIV combination implementation strategies that reduce disparities for Black and Hispanic or Latinx individuals can significantly improve population health, reduce costs, and drive progress towards Ending the HIV Epidemic goals in the USA.FundingNational Institute on Drug Abuse.

BackgroundA paucity of research addresses breast cancer screening strategies for women at lower-than-average breast cancer risk. The aim of this study was to examine screening harms and benefits among women aged 50-74 years at lower-than-average breast cancer risk by breast density.MethodsThree well-established, validated Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Network models were used to estimate the lifetime benefits and harms of different screening scenarios, varying by screening interval (biennial, triennial). Breast cancer deaths averted, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years gained, false-positives, benign biopsies, and overdiagnosis were assessed by relative risk (RR) level (0.6, 0.7, 0.85, 1 [average risk]) and breast density category, for US women born in 1970.ResultsScreening benefits decreased proportionally with decreasing risk and with lower breast density. False-positives, unnecessary biopsies, and the percentage overdiagnosis also varied substantially by breast density category; false-positives and unnecessary biopsies were highest in the heterogeneously dense category. For women with fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density and a relative risk of no more than 0.85, the additional deaths averted and life-years gained were small with biennial vs triennial screening. For these groups, undergoing 4 additional screens (screening biennially [13 screens] vs triennially [9 screens]) averted no more than 1 additional breast cancer death and gained no more than 16 life-years and no more than 10 quality-adjusted life-years per 1000 women but resulted in up to 232 more false-positives per 1000 women.ConclusionTriennial screening from age 50 to 74 years may be a reasonable screening strategy for women with lower-than-average breast cancer risk and fatty or scattered fibroglandular breast density.

BackgroundWidespread viral and serological testing for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) may present a unique opportunity to also test for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We estimated the potential impact of adding linked, opt-out HIV testing alongside SARS-CoV-2 testing on the HIV incidence and the cost-effectiveness of this strategy in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a previously calibrated dynamic HIV transmission model, we constructed 3 sets of scenarios for each city: (1) sustained current levels of HIV-related treatment and prevention services (status quo); (2) temporary disruptions in health services and changes in sexual and injection risk behaviors at discrete levels between 0%-50%; and (3) linked HIV and SARS-CoV-2 testing offered to 10%-90% of the adult population in addition to Scenario 2. We estimated the cumulative number of HIV infections between 2020-2025 and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of linked HIV testing over 20 years.ResultsIn the absence of linked, opt-out HIV testing, we estimated a total of a 16.5% decrease in HIV infections between 2020-2025 in the best-case scenario (50% reduction in risk behaviors and no service disruptions), and a 9.0% increase in the worst-case scenario (no behavioral change and 50% reduction in service access). We estimated that HIV testing (offered at 10%-90% levels) could avert a total of 576-7225 (1.6%-17.2%) new infections. The intervention would require an initial investment of $20.6M-$220.7M across cities; however, the intervention would ultimately result in savings in health-care costs in each city.ConclusionsA campaign in which HIV testing is linked with SARS-CoV-2 testing could substantially reduce the HIV incidence and reduce direct and indirect health care costs attributable to HIV.

: Using a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for six USA cities, we projected HIV incidence from 2020 to 2040 and estimated whether an established UNAIDS HIV epidemic control target could be met under ideal implementation of optimal combination strategies previously defined for each city. Four of six cities (Atlanta, Baltimore, New York City and Seattle) were projected to achieve epidemic control by 2040 and we identified differences in reaching epidemic control across racial/ethnic groups.

BackgroundPersons who inject drugs (PWID) are at a disproportionately high risk of HIV infection. We aimed to determine the highest-valued combination implementation strategies to reduce the burden of HIV among PWID in 6 US cities.MethodsUsing a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, and Seattle, we assessed the value of implementing combinations of evidence-based interventions at optimistic (drawn from best available evidence) or ideal (90% coverage) scale-up. We estimated reduction in HIV incidence among PWID, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for each city (10-year implementation; 20-year horizon; 2018 $ US).ResultsCombinations that maximized health benefits contained between 6 (Atlanta and Seattle) and 12 (Miami) interventions with ICER values ranging from $94 069/QALY in Los Angeles to $146 256/QALY in Miami. These strategies reduced HIV incidence by 8.1% (credible interval [CI], 2.8%-13.2%) in Seattle and 54.4% (CI, 37.6%-73.9%) in Miami. Incidence reduction reached 16.1%-75.5% at ideal scale.ConclusionsEvidence-based interventions targeted to PWID can deliver considerable value; however, ending the HIV epidemic among PWID will require innovative implementation strategies and supporting programs to reduce social and structural barriers to care.

BackgroundThe HIV epidemic in the USA is a collection of diverse local microepidemics. We aimed to identify optimal combination implementation strategies of evidence-based interventions to reach 90% reduction of incidence in 10 years, in six US cities that comprise 24·1% of people living with HIV in the USA.MethodsIn this economic modelling study, we used a dynamic HIV transmission model calibrated with the best available evidence on epidemiological and structural conditions for six US cities: Atlanta (GA), Baltimore (MD), Los Angeles (CA), Miami (FL), New York City (NY), and Seattle (WA). We assessed 23 040 combinations of 16 evidence-based interventions (ie, HIV prevention, testing, treatment, engagement, and re-engagement) to identify combination strategies providing the greatest health benefit while remaining cost-effective. Main outcomes included averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), total cost (in 2018 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER; from the health-care sector perspective, 3% annual discount rate). Interventions were implemented at previously documented and ideal (90% coverage or adoption) scale-up, and sustained from 2020 to 2030, with outcomes evaluated until 2040.FindingsOptimal combination strategies providing health benefit and cost-effectiveness contained between nine (Seattle) and 13 (Miami) individual interventions. If implemented at previously documented scale-up, these strategies could reduce incidence by between 30·7% (95% credible interval 19·1-43·7; Seattle) and 50·1% (41·5-58·0; New York City) by 2030, at ICERs ranging from cost-saving in Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami, to $95 416 per QALY in Seattle. Incidence reductions reached between 39·5% (26·3-53·8) in Seattle and 83·6% (70·8-87·0) in Baltimore at ideal implementation. Total costs of implementing strategies across the cities at previously documented scale-up reached $559 million per year in 2024; however, costs were offset by long-term reductions in new infections and delayed disease progression, with Atlanta, Baltimore, and Miami projecting cost savings over the 20 year study period.InterpretationEvidence-based interventions can deliver substantial public health and economic value; however, complementary strategies to overcome social and structural barriers to HIV care will be required to reach national targets of the ending the HIV epidemic initiative by 2030.FundingNational Institutes of Health.

ObjectiveEffective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics.DesignDynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis.MethodsWe identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon.ResultsIncreased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city.ConclusionCombination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Background. Heterogeneity in HIV microepidemics across US cities necessitates locally oriented, combination implementation strategies to prioritize resources. We calibrated and validated a dynamic, compartmental HIV transmission model to establish a status quo treatment scenario, holding constant current levels of care for 6 US cities. Methods. Built off a comprehensive evidence synthesis, we adapted and extended a previously published model to replicate the transmission, progression, and clinical care for each microepidemic. We identified a common set of 17 calibration targets between 2012 and 2015 and used the Morris method to select the most influential parameters for calibration. We then applied the Nelder-Mead algorithm to iteratively calibrate the model to generate 2000 best-fitting parameter sets. Finally, model projections were internally validated with a series of robustness checks and externally validated against published estimates of HIV incidence, while the face validity of 25-year projections was assessed by a Scientific Advisory Committee (SAC). Results. We documented our process for model development, calibration, and validation to maximize its transparency and reproducibility. The projected outcomes demonstrated a good fit to calibration targets, with a mean goodness-of-fit ranging from 0.0174 (New York City [NYC]) to 0.0861 (Atlanta). Most of the incidence predictions were within the uncertainty range for 5 of the 6 cities (ranging from 21% [Miami] to 100% [NYC]), demonstrating good external validity. The face validity of the long-term projections was confirmed by our SAC, showing that the incidence would decrease or remain stable in Atlanta, Los Angeles, NYC, and Seattle while increasing in Baltimore and Miami. Discussion. This exercise provides a basis for assessing the incremental value of further investments in HIV combination implementation strategies tailored to urban HIV microepidemics.

Abstract Background COVID-19 outbreaks still occur in English care homes despite the interventions in place. Methods We developed a stochastic compartmental model to simulate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 within an English care home. We quantified the outbreak risk with baseline non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) already in place, the role of community prevalence in driving outbreaks, and the relative contribution of all importation routes into a fully susceptible care home. We also considered the potential impact of additional control measures in care homes with and without immunity, namely: increasing staff and resident testing frequency, using lateral flow antigen testing (LFD) tests instead of polymerase chain reaction (PCR), enhancing infection prevention and control (IPC), increasing the proportion of residents isolated, shortening the delay to isolation, improving the effectiveness of isolation, restricting visitors and limiting staff to working in one care home. We additionally present a Shiny application for users to apply this model to their facility of interest, specifying care home, outbreak and intervention characteristics. Results The model suggests that importation of SARS-CoV-2 by staff, from the community, is the main driver of outbreaks, that importation by visitors or from hospitals is rare, and that the past testing strategy (monthly testing of residents and daily testing of staff by PCR) likely provides negligible benefit in preventing outbreaks. Daily staff testing by LFD was 39% (95% 18–55%) effective in preventing outbreaks at 30 days compared to no testing. Conclusions Increasing the frequency of testing in staff and enhancing IPC are important to preventing importations to the care home. Further work is needed to understand the impact of vaccination in this population, which is likely to be very effective in preventing outbreaks.

Abstract In response to the COVID-19 epidemic, Egypt established a unique care model based on quarantine hospitals where only externally-referred confirmed COVID-19 patients were admitted, and healthcare workers resided continuously over 1- to 2-week working shifts. Using a mathematical model accounting for the false-negative rates of RT-PCR tests, we computed the incidence rate of SARS-CoV-2 infection among HCWs, while unveiling the proportion of infections remaining undiagnosed despite routine testing. We relied on longitudinal data, including results of routine RT-PCR tests, collected within three Egyptian quarantine hospitals. We estimated an incidence rate (per 100 person-day, PD) of 1.05 (95% CrI 0.58–1.65) at Hospital 1, 1.92 (95% CrI 0.93–3.28) at Hospital 2 and 7.62 (95% CrI 3.47–13.70) at Hospital 3. We found that the risk for an HCW to be infected during a working shift lay within the range of risk levels previously documented in standard healthcare settings for Hospitals 1–2, whereas it was > threefold higher for Hospital 3. This large variation suggests that HCWs from quarantine hospitals may face a high occupational risk of infection, but that, with sufficient infection control measures, this risk can be brought down to levels similar to those observed in standard healthcare settings.