Paz Rios LH, Minga I, Kwak E, Najib A, Aller A, Lees E, Macrinici V, Rezaei Bookani K, Pursnani A, Caprini J, Spyropoulos AC, and Tafur A
Introduction Severe novel corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes dysregulation of the coagulation system with arterial and venous thromboembolism (VTE). We hypothesize that validated VTE risk scores would have prognostic ability in this population. Methods Retrospective observational cohort with severe COVID-19 performed in NorthShore University Health System. Patients were >18 years of age and met criteria for inpatient or intensive care unit (ICU) care. The International Medical Prevention Registry on Venous Thromboembolism (IMPROVE) and Caprini scores were calculated and patients were stratified. Results This study includes 184 patients, mostly men (63.6%), Caucasian (54.3%), 63 years old (interquartile range [IQR]: 24-101), and 57.1% of them required ICU care. Twenty-seven (14.7%) thrombotic events occurred: 12 (6.5%) cases of disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), 9 (4.9%) of pulmonary embolism, 5 (2.7%) of deep vein thrombosis, and 1 (0.5%) stroke. Among them, 86 patients (46.7%) died, 95 (51.6%) were discharged, and 3 (1.6%) were still hospitalized. "Moderate risk for VTE" and "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE score had significant mortality association: (hazard ratio [HR]: 5.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.93-11.03; p < 0.001) and (HR = 6.22; 95% CI: 3.04-12.71; p < 0.001), respectively, with 87% sensitivity and 63% specificity (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.752, p < 0.001). "High Risk for VTE" by Caprini score had significant mortality association (HR = 17.6; 95% CI: 5.56-55.96; p < 0.001) with 96% sensitivity and 55% specificity (AUC = 0.843, p < 0.001). Both scores were associated with thrombotic events when classified as "High risk for VTE" by IMPROVE (HR = 6.50; 95% CI: 2.72-15.53; p < 0.001) and Caprini scores (HR = 11.507; 95% CI: 2.697-49.104; p = 0.001). Conclusion The IMPROVE and Caprini risk scores were independent predictors of mortality and thrombotic events in severe COVID-19. With larger validation, this can be useful prognostic information., Competing Interests: Conflict of Interest 1. L.H.P.R. has received research support from Biotap. 2. A.C.S. is a consultant for Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, BMS, Portola, Bayer, the ATLAS Group. Has received research funds from Boehringer Ingelheim and Janssen. 3. J.C. is a consultant for Recovery Force. Part of the Steering Committee of Janssen R&D. Bleeding Advisory Board for Pfizer, Advisory board of BMS and Alexion Pharmaceuticals. Has received honoraria from Sanofi and Arjo, Inc. 4. A.T. has received research support from Biotap, BMS, Doasense. Research and educational grant from Janssen R&D. Is a consultant for Recovery Force., (The Author(s). This is an open access article published by Thieme under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, permitting unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction so long as the original work is properly cited. ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ ).)