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1. Confirmed disability progression as a marker of permanent disability in multiple sclerosis

Author

Sifat Sharmin, Francesca Bovis, Charles Malpas, Dana Horakova, Eva Kubala Havrdova, Guillermo Izquierdo, Sara Eichau, Maria Trojano, Alexandre Prat, Marc Girard, Pierre Duquette, Marco Onofrj, Alessandra Lugaresi, Francois Grand'Maison, Pierre Grammond, Patrizia Sola, Diana Ferraro, Murat Terzi, Oliver Gerlach, Raed Alroughani, Cavit Boz, Vahid Shaygannejad, Vincent van Pesch, Elisabetta Cartechini, Ludwig Kappos, Jeannette Lechner‐Scott, Roberto Bergamaschi, Recai Turkoglu, Claudio Solaro, Gerardo Iuliano, Franco Granella, Bart Van Wijmeersch, Daniele Spitaleri, Mark Slee, Pamela McCombe, Julie Prevost, Radek Ampapa, Serkan Ozakbas, Jose Luis Sanchez‐Menoyo, Aysun Soysal, Steve Vucic, Thor Petersen, Koen de Gans, Ernest Butler, Suzanne Hodgkinson, Youssef Sidhom, Riadh Gouider, Edgardo Cristiano, Tamara Castillo‐Triviño, Maria Laura Saladino, Michael Barnett, Fraser Moore, Csilla Rozsa, Bassem Yamout, Olga Skibina, Anneke van der Walt, Katherine Buzzard, Orla Gray, Stella Hughes, Angel Perez Sempere, Bhim Singhal, Yara Fragoso, Cameron Shaw, Allan Kermode, Bruce Taylor, Magdolna Simo, Neil Shuey, Talal Al‐Harbi, Richard Macdonell, Jose Andres Dominguez, Tunde Csepany, Carmen Adella Sirbu, Maria Pia Sormani, Helmut Butzkueven, Tomas Kalincik, UCL - SSS/IONS/CEMO - Pôle Cellulaire et moléculaire, UCL - (SLuc) Service de biochimie médicale, UCL - (SLuc) Service de neurologie, Sirbu, Carmen Adella/0000-0002-1982-1066, Malpas, Charles/0000-0003-0534-3718, Sharmin, Sifat, Bovis, Francesca, Malpas, Charle, Horakova, Dana, Havrdova, Eva Kubala, Izquierdo, Guillermo, Eichau, Sara, Trojano, Maria, Prat, Alexandre, Girard, Marc, Duquette, Pierre, Onofrj, Marco, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Grand'Maison, Francoi, Grammond, Pierre, Sola, Patrizia, Ferraro, Diana, Terzi, Murat, Gerlach, Oliver, Alroughani, Raed, Boz, Cavit, Shaygannejad, Vahid, van Pesch, Vincent, Cartechini, Elisabetta, Kappos, Ludwig, Lechner-Scott, Jeannette, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Turkoglu, Recai, Solaro, Claudio, Iuliano, Gerardo, Granella, Franco, Van Wijmeersch, Bart, Spitaleri, Daniele, Slee, Mark, McCombe, Pamela, Prevost, Julie, Ampapa, Radek, Ozakbas, Serkan, Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Lui, Soysal, Aysun, Vucic, Steve, Petersen, Thor, de Gans, Koen, Butler, Ernest, Hodgkinson, Suzanne, Sidhom, Youssef, Gouider, Riadh, Cristiano, Edgardo, Castillo-Triviño, Tamara, Saladino, Maria Laura, Barnett, Michael, Moore, Fraser, Rozsa, Csilla, Yamout, Bassem, Skibina, Olga, van der Walt, Anneke, Buzzard, Katherine, Gray, Orla, Hughes, Stella, Sempere, Angel Perez, Singhal, Bhim, Fragoso, Yara, Shaw, Cameron, Kermode, Allan, Taylor, Bruce, Simo, Magdolna, Shuey, Neil, Al-Harbi, Talal, Macdonell, Richard, Dominguez, Jose Andre, Csepany, Tunde, Sirbu, Carmen Adella, Sormani, Maria Pia, Butzkueven, Helmut, and Kalincik, Tomas

Subjects
Male, risk scoring, sustained disability progression, Multiple Sclerosis, CLARITY, clinical trial, functional system impairment, Cohort Studies, Disability Evaluation, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting, Neurology, Disease Progression, Cladribine, Humans, Female, Neurology (clinical), Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic
Abstract

Background and purpose The prevention of disability over the long term is the main treatment goal in multiple sclerosis (MS); however, randomized clinical trials evaluate only short-term treatment effects on disability. This study aimed to define criteria for 6-month confirmed disability progression events of MS with a high probability of resulting in sustained long-term disability worsening. Methods In total, 14,802 6-month confirmed disability progression events were identified in 8741 patients from the global MSBase registry. For each 6-month confirmed progression event (13,321 in the development and 1481 in the validation cohort), a sustained progression score was calculated based on the demographic and clinical characteristics at the time of progression that were predictive of long-term disability worsening. The score was externally validated in the Cladribine Tablets Treating Multiple Sclerosis Orally (CLARITY) trial. Results The score was based on age, sex, MS phenotype, relapse activity, disability score and its change from baseline, number of affected functional system domains and worsening in six of the domains. In the internal validation cohort, a 61% lower chance of improvement was estimated with each unit increase in the score (hazard ratio 0.39, 95% confidence interval 0.29-0.52; discriminatory index 0.89). The proportions of progression events sustained at 5 years stratified by the score were 1: 72%; 2: 88%; 3: 94%; 4: 100%. The results of the CLARITY trial were confirmed for reduction of disability progression that was >88% likely to be sustained (events with score >1.5). Conclusions Clinicodemographic characteristics of 6-month confirmed disability progression events identify those at high risk of sustained long-term disability. This knowledge will allow future trials to better assess the effect of therapy on long-term disability accrual. NHMRC [1129189, 1157717, 1140766]; Merck; Biogen; Novartis; Roche; Bayer; Schering; Sanofi Genzyme; Teva Pharmaceutical Industries

Published
2022

2. Effect of Disease-Modifying Therapy on Disability in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis Over 15 Years

Author

Kalincik, Tomas, Diouf, Ibrahima, Sharmin, Sifat, Malpas, Charles, Spelman, Tim, Horakova, Dana, Havrdova, Eva Kubala, Trojano, Maria, Izquierdo, Guillermo, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Prat, Alexandre, Girard, Marc, Duquette, Pierre, Grammond, Pierre, Jokubaitis, Vilija, van der Walt, Anneke, Grand'Maison, Francois, Sola, Patrizia, Ferraro, Diana, Shaygannejad, Vahid, Alroughani, Raed, Hupperts, Raymond, Terzi, Murat, Boz, Cavit, Lechner-Scott, Jeannette, Pucci, Eugenio, Van Pesch, Vincent, Granella, Franco, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Spitaleri, Daniele, Slee, Mark, Vucic, Steve, Ampapa, Radek, McCombe, Pamela, Ramo-Tello, Cristina, Prevost, Julie, Olascoaga, Javier, Cristiano, Edgardo, Barnett, Michael, Saladino, Maria Laura, Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Luis, Hodgkinson, Suzanne, Rozsa, Csilla, Hughes, Stella, Moore, Fraser, Shaw, Cameron, Butler, Ernest, Skibina, Olga, Gray, Orla, Kermode, Allan, Csepany, Tunde, Singhal, Bhim, Shuey, Neil, Piroska, Imre, Taylor, Bruce, Simo, Magdolna, Sirbu, Carmen-Adella, Sas, Attila, Butzkueven, Helmut, MSBase Study Group, UCL - (SLuc) Service de neurologie, UCL - SSS/IONS/CEMO - Pôle Cellulaire et moléculaire, Kalincik, Toma, Diouf, Ibrahima, Sharmin, Sifat, Malpas, Charle, Spelman, Tim, Horakova, Dana, Havrdova, Eva Kubala, Trojano, Maria, Izquierdo, Guillermo, Lugaresi, Alessandra, Prat, Alexandre, Girard, Marc, Duquette, Pierre, Grammond, Pierre, Jokubaitis, Vilija, van der Walt, Anneke, Grand'Maison, Francoi, Sola, Patrizia, Ferraro, Diana, Shaygannejad, Vahid, Alroughani, Raed, Hupperts, Raymond, Terzi, Murat, Boz, Cavit, Lechner-Scott, Jeannette, Pucci, Eugenio, Van Pesch, Vincent, Granella, Franco, Bergamaschi, Roberto, Spitaleri, Daniele, Slee, Mark, Vucic, Steve, Ampapa, Radek, McCombe, Pamela, Ramo-Tello, Cristina, Prevost, Julie, Olascoaga, Javier, Cristiano, Edgardo, Barnett, Michael, Saladino, Maria Laura, Sanchez-Menoyo, Jose Lui, Hodgkinson, Suzanne, Rozsa, Csilla, Hughes, Stella, Moore, Fraser, Shaw, Cameron, Butler, Ernest, Skibina, Olga, Gray, Orla, Kermode, Allan, Csepany, Tunde, Singhal, Bhim, Shuey, Neil, Piroska, Imre, Taylor, Bruce, Simo, Magdolna, Sirbu, Carmen-Adella, Sas, Attila, and Butzkueven, Helmut

Subjects
Adult, Male, medicine.medical_specialty, Article, 03 medical and health sciences, Disability Evaluation, 0302 clinical medicine, Natalizumab, Multiple Sclerosis, Relapsing-Remitting, multiple sclerosis, treatment, prognosis, Internal medicine, medicine, Humans, Immunologic Factors, Disease Progression, Female, Fingolimod Hydrochloride, Glatiramer Acetate, Immunosuppressive Agents, Interferon-beta, Longitudinal Studies, Middle Aged, Proportional Hazards Models, 030212 general & internal medicine, Glatiramer acetate, Expanded Disability Status Scale, Proportional hazards model, business.industry, Multiple sclerosis, Hazard ratio, medicine.disease, Confidence interval, Cohort, Neurology (clinical), business, 030217 neurology & neurosurgery, medicine.drug
Abstract

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that immunotherapy prevents long-term disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS), we modeled disability outcomes in 14,717 patients.MethodsWe studied patients from MSBase followed for ≥1 year, with ≥3 visits, ≥1 visit per year, and exposed to MS therapy, and a subset of patients with ≥15-year follow-up. Marginal structural models were used to compare the cumulative hazards of 12-month confirmed increase and decrease in disability, Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) step 6, and the incidence of relapses between treated and untreated periods. Marginal structural models were continuously readjusted for patient age, sex, pregnancy, date, disease course, time from first symptom, prior relapse history, disability, and MRI activity.ResultsA total of 14,717 patients were studied. During the treated periods, patients were less likely to experience relapses (hazard ratio 0.60, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.43–0.82, p = 0.0016), worsening of disability (0.56, 0.38–0.82, p = 0.0026), and progress to EDSS step 6 (0.33, 0.19–0.59, p = 0.00019). Among 1,085 patients with ≥15-year follow-up, the treated patients were less likely to experience relapses (0.59, 0.50–0.70, p = 10−9) and worsening of disability (0.81, 0.67–0.99, p = 0.043).ConclusionContinued treatment with MS immunotherapies reduces disability accrual by 19%–44% (95% CI 1%–62%), the risk of need of a walking aid by 67% (95% CI 41%–81%), and the frequency of relapses by 40–41% (95% CI 18%–57%) over 15 years. This study provides evidence that disease-modifying therapies are effective in improving disability outcomes in relapsing-remitting MS over the long term.Classification of EvidenceThis study provides Class IV evidence that, for patients with relapsing-remitting MS, long-term exposure to immunotherapy prevents neurologic disability.

Published
2021

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