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Item does not contain fulltext How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender–career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. 18 p.

In recent years, the scientific community has called for improvements in the credibility, robustness, and reproducibility of research, characterized by increased interest and promotion of open and transparent research practices. While progress has been positive, there is a lack of consideration about how this approach can be embedded into undergraduate and postgraduate research training. Specifically, a critical overview of the literature which investigates how integrating open and reproducible science may influence student outcomes is needed. In this paper, we provide the first critical review of literature surrounding the integration of open and reproducible scholarship into teaching and learning and its associated outcomes in students. Our review highlighted how embedding open and reproducible scholarship appears to be associated with (1) students’ scientific literacies (i.e., students’ understanding of open research, consumption of science, and the development of transferable skills); (2) student engagement (i.e., motivation and engagement with learning, collaboration, and engagement in open research), and (3) students’ attitudes towards science (i.e., trust in science and confidence in research findings). However, our review also identified a need for more robust and rigorous methods within pedagogical research, including more interventional and experimental evaluations of teaching practice. We discuss implications for teaching and learning scholarship.

In recent years, the scientific community has called for improvements in the credibility, robustness and reproducibility of research, characterized by increased interest and promotion of open and transparent research practices. While progress has been positive, there is a lack of consideration about how this approach can be embedded into undergraduate and postgraduate research training. Specifically, a critical overview of the literature which investigates how integrating open and reproducible science may influence student outcomes is needed. In this paper, we provide the first critical review of literature surrounding the integration of open and reproducible scholarship into teaching and learning and its associated outcomes in students. Our review highlighted how embedding open and reproducible scholarship appears to be associated with (i) students' scientific literacies (i.e. students’ understanding of open research, consumption of science and the development of transferable skills); (ii) student engagement (i.e. motivation and engagement with learning, collaboration and engagement in open research) and (iii) students' attitudes towards science (i.e. trust in science and confidence in research findings). However, our review also identified a need for more robust and rigorous methods within pedagogical research, including more interventional and experimental evaluations of teaching practice. We discuss implications for teaching and learning scholarship.

Objectives: To use a case review approach for investigating the types of cognitive error identifiable following a complicated patient admission with a multisystem disorder in an acute care setting where diagnosis was difficult and delayed. Methods: A case notes review was undertaken to explore the cognitive factors associated with diagnostic error in the case of an 18-year-old male presenting acutely unwell with myalgia, anorexia and vomiting. Each clinical interaction was analysed and identified cognitive factors were categorised using a framework developed by Graber et al. Results: Cognitive factors resulting in diagnostic errors most frequently occurred within the first five days of hospital admission. The most common were premature closure; failure to order or follow up an appropriate test; over-reliance on someone else's findings or opinion; over-estimating or underestimating usefulness or salience of a finding, and; ineffective, incomplete or faulty history and physical examination. Cognitive factors were particularly frequent around transitions of care and patient transfers from one clinical area to another. The presence of senior staff did not necessarily mitigate against diagnostic error from cognitive factors demonstrated by junior staff or diagnostic errors made out-of-hours. Conclusions: Cognitive factors are a significant cause of diagnostic error within the first five days after admission, especially around transitions of care between different clinical settings and providers. Medical education interventions need to ensure clinical reasoning training supports individuals and teams to develop effective strategies for mitigating cognitive factors when faced with uncertainty over complex patients presenting with non-specific symptoms in order to reduce diagnostic error.

Fractal geometry has recently been proposed as a useful tool for characterizing the complexity of the brain cortex, which is likely to derive from the recurrence of sulci–gyri convolution patterns. The index used to describe the cortical complexity is called fractal dimensional (FD) and was employed by different research exploring the neurobiological correlates of distinct pathological and nonpathological conditions. This review aims to describe the literature on the application of this index, summarize the heterogeneities between studies and inform future research on this topic. Sixty-two studies were included in the systematic review. The main research lines concern neurodevelopment, aging and the neurobiology of specific psychiatric and neurological disorders. Overall, the included papers indicate that cortical complexity is likely to reduce during aging and in various pathological processes affecting the brain. Nevertheless, the high heterogeneity between studies strongly prevents the possibility of drawing conclusions. Further research considering this index besides other morphological values is needed to better clarify the role of FD in characterizing the cortical structure.

Interleaving is an evidence-based, learning-science strategy that is relevant to the planning and implementation of continuing professional development (CPD). Mixing related but different areas of study forces the brain to reconcile the relationship between the areas while understanding each area well. By doing so, interleaving increases the likelihood of mastery and memory. Research from cognitive psychology and neuroscience provides the rationale for interleaving, and examples of its implementation in health professions education have begun to appear in the literature. If utilized appropriately, some common CPD interventions can leverage interleaving. Through increased understanding, CPD participants can benefit from interleaving by making more-informed educational choices, and CPD planners can benefit in efforts to improve educational activities.

The theory of universal emotions suggests that certain emotions such as fear, anger, disgust, sadness, surprise and happiness can be encountered cross-culturally. These emotions are expressed using specific facial movements that enable human communication. More recently, theoretical and empirical models have been used to propose that universal emotions could be expressed via discretely different facial movements in different cultures due to the non-convergent social evolution that takes place in different geographical areas. This has prompted the consideration that own-culture emotional faces have distinct evolutionary important sociobiological value and can be processed automatically, and without conscious awareness. In this paper, we tested this hypothesis using backward masking. We showed, in two different experiments per country of origin, to participants in Britain, Chile, New Zealand and Singapore, backward masked own and other-culture emotional faces. We assessed detection and recognition performance, and self-reports for emotionality and familiarity. We presented thorough cross-cultural experimental evidence that when using Bayesian assessment of non-parametric receiver operating characteristics and hit-versus-miss detection and recognition response analyses, masked faces showing own cultural dialects of emotion were rated higher for emotionality and familiarity compared to other-culture emotional faces and that this effect involved conscious awareness.

ContextChanges to surgical training programmes in the UK has led to a reduction in theatre time for trainees, and an increasing reliance on simulation to provide procedural experience. Whilst simulation offers opportunity for repetitive practice, the effectiveness of simulation as an educational intervention for developing procedural surgical skills is unclear.MethodsA systematic literature review was undertaken to retrieve all studies describing simulation-based medical education (SBME) interventions for the development of procedural surgical skills using the MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, EMBASE and PUBMED databases. Studies measuring skill retention or demonstrating transferability of skills for improving patient outcomes were included in the review.ResultsSBME is superior to no training and can lead to improvement in procedural surgical skills, such that skills transfer from simulated environments into theatre. SBME results in minimal skill degradation after 2 weeks, although more significant decay results after [greater than]90 days. Many studies recruited [less than]10 participants, used a variety of methods and were restricted to endoscopic surgical techniques. All studies did not compare interventions with non-SBME teaching methods for developing procedural surgical skills. No studies compared the curriculum design of different surgical training programmes.ConclusionsSBME interventions are effective for developing procedural skills in surgery. SBME interventions are also effective for preventing the decay of procedural surgical skills. Although no studies demonstrate non-inferiority of SBME interventions compared to time in theatre developing skills, SBME interventions do enable the transfer of skills into theatre, and the potential for improving patient outcomes.

In this crowdsourced initiative, independent analysts used the same dataset to test two hypotheses regarding the effects of scientists’ gender and professional status on verbosity during group meetings. Not only the analytic approach but also the operationalizations of key variables were left unconstrained and up to individual analysts. For instance, analysts could choose to operationalize status as job title, institutional ranking, citation counts, or some combination. To maximize transparency regarding the process by which analytic choices are made, the analysts used a platform we developed called DataExplained to justify both preferred and rejected analytic paths in real time. Analyses lacking sufficient detail, reproducible code, or with statistical errors were excluded, resulting in 29 analyses in the final sample. Researchers reported radically different analyses and dispersed empirical outcomes, in a number of cases obtaining significant effects in opposite directions for the same research question. A Boba multiverse analysis demonstrates that decisions about how to operationalize variables explain variability in outcomes above and beyond statistical choices (e.g., covariates). Subjective researcher decisions play a critical role in driving the reported empirical results, underscoring the need for open data, systematic robustness checks, and transparency regarding both analytic paths taken and not taken. Implications for organizations and leaders, whose decision making relies in part on scientific findings, consulting reports, and internal analyses by data scientists, are discussed.

The brain processes underlying impairing effects of emotional arousal on associative memory were previously attributed to two dissociable routes using high-resolution fMRI of the MTL (Madan et al. 2017). Extrahippocampal MTL regions supporting associative encoding of neutral pairs suggested unitization; conversely, associative encoding of negative pairs involved compensatory hippocampal activity. Here, whole-brain fMRI revealed prefrontal contributions: dmPFC was more involved in hippocampal-dependent negative pair learning and vmPFC in extrahippocampal neutral pair learning. Successful encoding of emotional memory associations may require emotion regulation/conflict resolution (dmPFC), while neutral memory associations may be accomplished by anchoring new information to prior knowledge (vmPFC).

What makes some words more memorable than others? Words can vary in many dimensions, and a variety of lexical, semantic, and affective properties have previously been associated with variability in recall performance. Free recall data were used from 147 participants across 20 experimental sessions from the Penn Electrophysiology of Encoding and Retrieval Study (PEERS) data set, across 1,638 words. Here, I consider how well 20 different word properties—across lexical, semantic, and affective dimensions—relate to free recall. Semantic dimensions, particularly animacy (better memory for living), usefulness (with respect to survival; better memory for useful), and size (better memory for larger) demonstrated the strongest relationships with recall probability. These key results were then examined and replicated in the free recall data from Lau, Goh, and Yap (Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology, 71, 2207–2222, 2018), which had 532 words and 116 participants. This comprehensive investigation of a variety of word memorability demonstrates that semantic and function-related psycholinguistic properties play an important role in verbal memory processes.

© 2021 American Neurological Association, Objective: Knowing explicitly where we are is an interpretation of our spatial representations. Reduplicative paramnesia is a disrupting syndrome in which patients present a firm belief of spatial mislocation. Here, we studied the largest sample of patients with delusional misidentifications of space (i.e. reduplicative paramnesia) after stroke to shed light on their neurobiology. Methods: In a prospective, cumulative, case-control study, we screened 400 patients with acute right-hemispheric stroke. We included 64 cases and 233 controls. First, lesions were delimited and normalized. Then, we computed structural and functional disconnection maps using methods of lesion-track and network-mapping. The maps were compared, controlling for confounders. Second, we built a multivariate logistic model including clinical, behavioural and neuroimaging data. Finally, we performed a nested cross-validation of the model with a support-vector machine analysis. Results: The most frequent misidentification subtype was confabulatory mislocation (56%), followed by place reduplication (19%) and chimeric assimilation (13%). Our results indicate that structural disconnection is the strongest predictor of the syndrome and included two distinct streams, connecting right fronto-thalamic and right occipito-temporal structures. In the multivariate model, the independent predictors of reduplicative paramnesia were the structural disconnection map, lesion sparing of right dorsal fronto-parietal regions, age and anosognosia. Good discrimination accuracy was demonstrated (area under the curve = 0.80[0.75-0.85]). Interpretation: Our results localize the anatomical circuits that may have a role in the abnormal spatial-emotional binding and in the defective updating of spatial representations underlying reduplicative paramnesia. This novel data may contribute to better understand the pathophysiology of delusional syndromes after stroke., The authors acknowledge our colleagues from the Department of Neurology and from the Language Research Laboratory for their contribution to patient screening. This work received funding from “PRÉMIO JOÃO LOBO ANTUNES” – SCML (grant to P.N.A.), from “Bolsa de Investigação em Doenças Vasculares Cerebrais 2017”–SPAVC (grant to P.N.A.) and from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program (grant agreement No. 818521 to M.T.S.).“Data were provided in part bythe Human Connectome Project, WU-Minn Consortium(Principal Investigators: David Van Essen and KamilUgurbil; 1U54 MH091657) funded by the 16 NIH Institutes and Centers that support the NIH Blueprint for Neuroscience Research; and by the McDonnell Center for Systems Neuroscience at Washington University.

Learning to play a musical instrument involves mapping visual + auditory cues to motor movements and anticipating transitions. Inspired by the serial reaction time task and artificial grammar learning, we investigated explicit and implicit knowledge of statistical learning in a sensorimotor task. Using a between-subjects design with four groups, one group of participants were provided with visual cues and followed along by tapping the corresponding fingertip to their thumb, while using a computer glove. Another group additionally received accompanying auditory tones; the final two groups received sensory (visual or visual + auditory) cues but did not provide a motor response—all together following a 2 × 2 design. Implicit knowledge was measured by response time, whereas explicit knowledge was assessed using probe tests. Findings indicate that explicit knowledge was best with only the single modality, but implicit knowledge was best when all three modalities were involved.

Most of the commonly used and endorsed guidelines for systematic review protocols and reporting standards have been developed for intervention research. These excellent guidelines have been adopted as the gold-standard for systematic reviews as an evidence synthesis method. In the current paper, we highlight some issues that may arise from adopting these guidelines beyond intervention designs, including in basic behavioural, cognitive, experimental, and exploratory research. We have adapted and built upon the existing guidelines to establish a complementary, comprehensive, and accessible tool for designing, conducting, and reporting Non-Intervention, Reproducible, and Open Systematic Reviews (NIRO-SR). NIRO-SR is a checklist composed of two parts that provide itemised guidance on the preparation of a systematic review protocol for pre-registration (Part A) and reporting the review (Part B) in a reproducible and transparent manner. This paper, the tool, and an open repository (https://osf.io/f3brw/) provide a comprehensive resource for those who aim to conduct a high quality, reproducible, and transparent systematic review of non-intervention studies.

Rapid advances in image processing capabilities have been seen across many domains, fostered by the application of machine learning algorithms to "big-data". However, within the realm of medical image analysis, advances have been curtailed, in part, due to the limited availability of large-scale, well-annotated datasets. One of the main reasons for this is the high cost often associated with producing large amounts of high-quality meta-data. Recently, there has been growing interest in the application of crowdsourcing for this purpose; a technique that a technique that is well established in a number of disciplines, including astronomy, ecology and meteorology for creating large-scale datasets across a range of disciplines, from computer vision to astrophysics. Despite the growing popularity of this approach, there has not yet been a comprehensive literature review to provide guidance to researchers considering using crowdsourcing methodologies in their own medical imaging analysis. In this survey, we review studies applying crowdsourcing to the analysis of medical images, published prior to July 2018. We identify common approaches and challenges and provide recommendations to researchers implementing crowdsourcing for medical imaging tasks. Finally, we discuss future opportunities for development within this emerging domain.