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1. How to Engage and Adapt to Unprecedented Extremes

Author

Matte, Dominic, Christensen, Jens H., Drews, Martin, Sobolowski, Stefan, Paquin, Dominique, Lynch, Amanda, Bremer, Scott, Engholm, Ida, Brunet, Nicolas D., Kolstad, Erik W., Kettleborough, Helena, Thompson, Vikki, Bevacqua, Emanuele, Heinrich, Dorothy, Pryor, Sara C., Bohnisch, Andrea, Feser, Frauke, Prein, Andreas F., Fischer, Erich, and Leduc, Martin

Subjects
Extreme weather -- Conferences, meetings and seminars -- Environmental aspects, Market trend/market analysis, Business, Earth sciences, American Meteorological Society -- Conferences, meetings and seminars
Abstract

Exploring Unprecedented Extremes What: Facing the urgent challenge of extreme weather and climate-related events, our societal frameworks for 'resilience' and 'adaptation' are proving to be insufficient. This paper introduces the [...]

Published
2024
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3. All Kinds of Integration : WMO’s Strategy for Seamless Prediction

Author

Ruti, Paolo, Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia, Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah, Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana, Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin, Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, and Yamaji, Moeka

Published
2020

4. Advancing Research for Seamless Earth System Prediction

Author

Ruti, Paolo M., Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia H., Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah C., Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana P., Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin R., Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, and Yamaji, Moeka

Published
2020

12. Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for our Changing World

Author

Brunet, Gilbert, primary, Parsons, David B., additional, Ivanov, Dimitar, additional, Lee, Boram, additional, Bauer, Peter, additional, Bernier, Natacha B., additional, Bouchet, Veronique, additional, Brown, Andy, additional, Busalacchi, Antonio, additional, Flatter, Georgina Campbell, additional, Goffer, Rei, additional, Davies, Paul, additional, Ebert, Beth, additional, Gutbrod, Karl, additional, Hong, Songyou, additional, Kenabatho, P.K., additional, Koppert, Hans-Joachim, additional, Lesolle, David, additional, Lynch, Amanda, additional, Mahfouf, Jean-François, additional, Ogallo, Laban, additional, Palmer, Tim, additional, Pelesikoti, Netatua, additional, Petty, Kevin, additional, Schulze, Dennis, additional, Shepherd, Theodore G., additional, Stocker, Thomas F., additional, Thorpe, Alan, additional, and Yu, Rucong, additional

Published
2022
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21. LESSONS LEARNED FROM IPCC AR 4 : Scientific Developments Needed To Understand, Predict, And Respond To Climate Change

Author

Doherty, Sarah J., Bojinski, Stephan, Henderson-Sellers, Ann, Noone, Kevin, Goodrich, David, Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Church, John A., Hibbard, Kathy A., Karl, Thomas R., Kajfez-Bogataj, Lucka, Lynch, Amanda H., Parker, David E., Prentice, I. Colin, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Saunders, Roger W., Smith, Mark Stafford, Steffen, Konrad, Stocker, Thomas F., Thorne, Peter W., Trenberth, Kevin E., Verstraete, Michel M., and Zwiers, Francis W.

Published
2009

37. Lessons learned from IPCC AR4: scientific developments needed to understand, predict, and respond to climate change

Author

Doherty, Sarah J., Bojinski, Stephan, Henderson-Sellers, Ann, Noone, Kevin, Goodrich, David, Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Church, John A., Hibbard, Kathy A., Karl, Thomas R., Kajfez-Bogataj, Lucka, Lynch, Amanda H., Parker, David E., Prentice, I. Colin, Ramaswamy, Venkatachalam, Saunders, Roger W., Smith, Mark Stafford, Steffen, Konrad, Stocker, Thomas F., Thorne, Peter W., Trenberth, Kevin E., Verstraete, Michel M., and Zwiers, Francis W.

Subjects
Global warming -- Social aspects, Ecosystems -- Social aspects, Business, Earth sciences
Abstract

The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that global warming is 'unequivocal' and that most of the observed increase since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, with discernible human influences On ocean warming, continental-average temperatures, temperature extremes, wind patterns, and other physical and biological indicators, impacting both socioeconomic and ecological systems. It is now clear that we are committed to some level of global climate change, and it is imperative that this be considered when planning future climate research and observational strategies. The Global Climate Observing System program (GCOS), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), and the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) therefore initiated a process to summarize the lessons learned through AR4 Working Groups I and II and to identify a set of high-priority modeling and observational needs. Two classes of recommendations emerged. First is the need to improve climate models, observational and climate monitoring systems, and our understanding of key processes. Second, the framework for climate research and observations must be extended to document impacts and to guide adaptation and mitigation efforts. Research and observational strategies specifically aimed at improving our ability to predict and understand impacts, adaptive capacity, and societal and ecosystem vulnerabilities will serve both purposes and are the subject of the specific recommendations made in this paper.

Published
2009

38. Urgency in the Anthropocene

Author

Lynch, Amanda H., Veland, Siri, Lynch, Amanda H., Lynch, Amanda H., Veland, Siri, and Lynch, Amanda H.

Abstract

A proposal to reframe the Anthropocene as an age of actual and emerging coexistence with earth system variability, encompassing both human dignity and environmental sustainability.Is this the Anthropocene, the age in which humans have become a geological force, leaving indelible signs of their activities on the earth? The narrative of the Anthropocene so far is characterized by extremes, emergencies, and exceptions?a tale of apocalypse by our own hands. The sense of ongoing crisis emboldens policy and governance responses that challenge established systems of sovereignty and law. The once unacceptable?geoengineering technology, for example, or authoritarian decision making?are now anticipated and even demanded by some. To counter this, Amanda Lynch and Siri Veland propose a reframing of the Anthropocene?seeing it not as a race against catastrophe but as an age of emerging coexistence with earth system variability.Lynch and Veland examine the interplay between our new state of ostensible urgency and the means by which this urgency is identified and addressed. They examine how societies, including Indigenous societies, have understood such interplays; explore how extreme weather and climate weave into the Anthropocene narrative; consider the tension between the short time scale of disasters and the longer time scale of sustainability; and discuss both international and national approaches to Anthropocene governance. Finally, they argue for an Anthropocene of coexistence that embraces both human dignity and sustainability.

Published
2018

39. Advancing research for seamless earth system prediction

Author

Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Ruti, Paolo M., Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia H., Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah C., Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana P., Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin R., Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, Yamaji, Moeka, Faculteit Geowetenschappen, Ruti, Paolo M., Tarasova, Oksana, Keller, Julia H., Carmichael, Greg, Hov, Øystein, Jones, Sarah C., Terblanche, Deon, Anderson-Lefale, Cheryl, Barros, Ana P., Bauer, Peter, Bouchet, Véronique, Brasseur, Guy, Brunet, Gilbert, DeCola, Phil, Dike, Victor, Kane, Mariane Diop, Gan, Christopher, Gurney, Kevin R., Hamburg, Steven, Hazeleger, Wilco, Jean, Michel, Johnston, David, Lewis, Alastair, Li, Peter, Liang, Xudong, Lucarini, Valerio, Lynch, Amanda, Manaenkova, Elena, Jae-Cheol, Nam, Ohtake, Satoru, Pinardi, Nadia, Polcher, Jan, Ritchie, Elizabeth, Sakya, Andi Eka, Saulo, Celeste, Singhee, Amith, Sopaheluwakan, Ardhasena, Steiner, Andrea, Thorpe, Alan, and Yamaji, Moeka

Published
2020

40. Arctic Maritime Cyclone Distribution and Trends in the ERA5 Reanalysis.

Author

ZIHAN CHEN and LYNCH, AMANDA H.

Subjects
*TRACKING algorithms, *CYCLONES, *POLAR vortex, *MINERAL industries
Abstract

We present a tracking algorithm for synoptic to meso-a-scale Arctic cyclones that differentiates between cold- and warm-core systems. The algorithm is applied to the ERA5 reanalysis north of 608N from 1950 to 2019. In this dataset, over one-half of the cyclones that meet minimum intensity and duration thresholds can be classified as cold-core systems. Systems that undergo transition, typically from cold to warm core, make up 27.2% of cyclones and are longer lived. The relatively infrequent warm-core cyclones are more intense and are most common in winter. The Arctic-wide occurrence of maritime cyclones has increased from 1979 to 2019 when compared with the period from 1950 to 1978, but the trends have high interannual variability. This shift has ramifications for transportation, fisheries, and extractive industries, as well as impacts on communities across the Arctic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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44. Fire in Australian savannas: From leaf to landscape

Author

Beringer, Jason, Hutley, Lindsay B., Abramson, David, Arndt, Stefan K., Briggs, Peter, Bristow, Mila, Canadell, Josep G., Cernusak, Lucas A., Eamus, Derek, Edwards, Andrew C., Evans, Bradleys J., Fest, Benedikt, Goergen, Klaus, Grover, Samantha P., Hacker, Jorg, Haverd, Vanessa, Kanniah, Kasturi, Livesley, Stephen J., Lynch, Amanda, Maier, Stefan W., Moore, Caitlin, Raupach, Michael, Russell-Smith, Jeremy, Scheiter, Simon, Tapper, Nigel J., Uotila, Petteri, Beringer, Jason, Hutley, Lindsay B., Abramson, David, Arndt, Stefan K., Briggs, Peter, Bristow, Mila, Canadell, Josep G., Cernusak, Lucas A., Eamus, Derek, Edwards, Andrew C., Evans, Bradleys J., Fest, Benedikt, Goergen, Klaus, Grover, Samantha P., Hacker, Jorg, Haverd, Vanessa, Kanniah, Kasturi, Livesley, Stephen J., Lynch, Amanda, Maier, Stefan W., Moore, Caitlin, Raupach, Michael, Russell-Smith, Jeremy, Scheiter, Simon, Tapper, Nigel J., and Uotila, Petteri

Abstract

Savanna ecosystems comprise 22% of the global terrestrial surface and 25% of Australia (almost 1.9 million km2) and provide significant ecosystem services through carbon and water cycles and the maintenance of biodiversity. The current structure, composition and distribution of Australian savannas have coevolved with fire, yet remain driven by the dynamic constraints of their bioclimatic niche. Fire in Australian savannas influences both the biophysical and biogeochemical processes at multiple scales from leaf to landscape. Here, we present the latest emission estimates from Australian savanna biomass burning and their contribution to global greenhouse gas budgets. We then review our understanding of the impacts of fire on ecosystem function and local surface water and heat balances, which in turn influence regional climate. We show how savanna fires are coupled to the global climate through the carbon cycle and fire regimes. We present new research that climate change is likely to alter the structure and function of savannas through shifts in moisture availability and increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, in turn altering fire regimes with further feedbacks to climate. We explore opportunities to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions from savanna ecosystems through changes in savanna fire management.

Published
2015

45. The Relationship between Tropical Cyclone Activity, Nutrient Loading, and Algal Blooms over the Great Barrier Reef.

Author

Parker, Chelsea L., Lynch, Amanda H., Spera, Stephanie A., and Spangler, Keith R.

Subjects
TROPICAL cyclones, EUTROPHICATION, ALGAL blooms, ENVIRONMENTAL engineering
Abstract

The Great Barrier Reef, the world's largest coral reef ecosystem, is subject to many environmental stressors. This study utilizes remotely sensed Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) chlorophyll a concentration data to explore statistically significant relationships between local-scale tropical cyclone disturbance and relative water quality between 2004-2014. The study reveals that tropical cyclone activity reduces water quality at 8- and 16-day time lags. Relationships suggest that at early stages (during and just after cyclone activity) algal response is induced primarily through wind-driven sediment re-suspension. However, wind speed in isolation only increases minimum levels of chlorophyll a, rather than mean or extreme upper values. At greater time lags (16-day), it is suggested that nutrient runoff from rainfall (and perhaps storm surge) increase phytoplankton activity, leading to detrimental ecological effects. The analyses systematically demonstrate the dominance of tropical cyclone size on mean and extreme values of chlorophyll a during and after tropical cyclone activity (at 0-, 8-, and 16-day time lags). Both the total area affected and the area from which nutrients can be extracted have more impact on chlorophyll a concentrations than either the duration or intensity of the cyclone. Findings indicate that efforts to reduce nutrient and sediment leaching into the reef lagoon from the Queensland coastal lands need to be continued and improved. This will be particularly important in the context of climate change, since tropical cyclone frequency, dynamics and characteristics are likely to change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2017
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46. Global insights into water resources, climate change and governance

Author

Pittock, James, Davis, Richard, Williams, John, Fu, Guobin, Warburton, Michele, Udall, Bradley, McKenzie, Ronnie, Yu, Xiubo, Che, Nhu, Connell, Daniel, Jiang, Qiang, Kompas, Thomas, Lynch, Amanda, Norris, Richard, Possingham, Hugh P, Quiggin, John, Grafton, Quentin, Pittock, James, Davis, Richard, Williams, John, Fu, Guobin, Warburton, Michele, Udall, Bradley, McKenzie, Ronnie, Yu, Xiubo, Che, Nhu, Connell, Daniel, Jiang, Qiang, Kompas, Thomas, Lynch, Amanda, Norris, Richard, Possingham, Hugh P, Quiggin, John, and Grafton, Quentin

Abstract

The threats of climate change and the trade-offs between extractions and flows are examined for the Colorado, the Murray, the Orange and the Yellow Rivers. In all four basins, and over a long period of time, outflows have greatly reduced as a direct resul

Published
2012

47. An Evaluation of Arctic Cloud and Radiation processes during the SHEBA year : Simulation results from 8 Arctic Regional Climate Models

Author

Wyser, Klaus, Jones, Colin, Du, P, Girard, Eric, Willen, Ulrika, Cassano, John, Christensen, Jens, Curry, Judy, Dethloff, Klaus, Haugen, J-E, Jacobs, Daniella, Kötzow, M, Laprise, Rene, Lynch, Amanda, Rinke, Annette, Serreze, Mark, Shaw, M, Tjernström, Michael, Zagar, Mark, Wyser, Klaus, Jones, Colin, Du, P, Girard, Eric, Willen, Ulrika, Cassano, John, Christensen, Jens, Curry, Judy, Dethloff, Klaus, Haugen, J-E, Jacobs, Daniella, Kötzow, M, Laprise, Rene, Lynch, Amanda, Rinke, Annette, Serreze, Mark, Shaw, M, Tjernström, Michael, and Zagar, Mark

Published
2008
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