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Identifying pathways to circular agriculture requires a profound understanding of nutrient flows and losses throughout the food system, and of interactions between biophysical conditions, land use, food production and food consumption. We quantified nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) flows of the food system of the North-Netherlands (NN) region and of its 30 subregions varying in biophysical and socio-economic conditions. The food system included agriculture, food processing, consumption, and waste processing. Nitrogen use efficiency (NUE), phosphorus use efficiency (PUE) and the nutrient cycling counts were calculated. Results show a low NUE (25%) and PUE (59%) of the food system. External inputs were used to maintain high yields and production. Nutrient cycling was very limited with losses from agriculture ranging from 143 to 465 kg N ha−1 y−1 and 4 to 11 kg P ha−1 y−1. Food system losses ranged from 181 to 480 kg N ha−1 y−1 and from 7 to 31 kg P ha−1 y−1 and varied with biophysical conditions, population density and farming systems. Large losses were associated with livestock farming and farming on drained peat soils. Food system efficiency was strongly associated with the utilization of produce. We conclude that increasing circularity requires tailoring of agriculture to local biophysical conditions and food system redesign to facilitate nutrient recycling. Steps towards circularity in NN include: matching livestock production to feed supply from residual flows and lands unsuitable for food crops, diversifying crop production to better match local demand and increasing waste recovery.

To gain insight in the environmental impacts of crop, soil and nutrient management, an integrated model framework INITIATOR was developed predicting: (i) emissions of ammonia (NH3) and greenhouse gases (GHG) from agriculture, including animal husbandry and crop production and (ii) accumulation, leaching and runoff of carbon, nutrients (nitrogen, N, phosphorus, P, and base cations) and metals in or from soils to groundwater and surface water in the Netherlands. Key processes in soil are included by linear or non-linear process formulations to maintain transparency and to enable data availability for spatially explicit application from field up to national level. Calculated national trends in nutrient losses over 2000–2020 compared well with independent estimates and showed a reduction in N and P input of 26 to 33 %, whereas the surplus declined by 33 % for N and 86 % for P due to increased crop yields and reduced inputs. This was accompanied by a reduction of 30–35 % in atmospheric emissions of ammonia and nitrous oxide as well a decline in N and P runoff of 35 and 10 %, respectively, whereas the emission of methane increased with 4 %. Model results compared well with (i) large scale observations of ammonia concentrations in air and nitrate concentrations in upper groundwater and ditch water, (ii) with nitrous oxide emissions and phosphorus adsorption in experiments at field scale and (iii) with metal adsorption in large scale soil datasets. Various mitigation measures were evaluated in view of policy ambitions for climate, soil and environmental quality for 2030, i.e. a reduction of 50 % for NH3, 11–17 % for GHG, 20 % for N runoff and 40 % for P runoff and an ambition of 50 % GHG emission reduction for 2050. The measures focused on a combination of animal feeding, low emission housing and application technologies, improved crop, soil and nutrient management, all being applied with an effectiveness of 100 % and 50 %, respectively. In addition, we evaluated impacts of

The substitution of biomass for fossil fuels in energy consumption is a measure to decrease the emissions of greenhouse gases and thereby mitigate global warming. During recent years, this has led to an increasing interest to use tree harvest residues as feedstock for bioenergy. An important concern related to the removal of harvesting residues is, however, the potential adverse effects on soil fertility caused by increased nutrient removal, relative to conventional stem-only harvesting. In the Netherlands this is a major concern, since most forests are located on poor sandy soils. To develop forest harvesting guidelines, we applied a mass balance approach comparing nutrient inputs by deposition and weathering with nutrient outputs by harvesting and leaching for various timber harvesting scenarios, including both stem-only harvesting and additional removal of tree tops and branches. A distinction was made in seven major tree species, six soil types (three sandy soils, loam, clay and peat soils) and nine regions, with clear variations in atmospheric deposition of phosphorus (P), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and potassium (K). For each region-tree-soil combination we calculated the maximum amounts that can be harvested such that the output of the nutrients Ca, Mg, K and P is balanced with the inputs. Results showed that at current harvesting rates, a negative balance of Ca, Mg, K or P is hardly calculated for the richer loamy to clayey soil types, while depletion can occur for the poorer sandy soils, particularly of P and K. Results are used to derive forest biomass harvesting guidelines, taking the uncertainties in the mass balance approach into account. The role of mitigating management approaches is also discussed.

Spatially detailed information on agricultural nitrogen (N) budgets is relevant to identify regions where there is a need for a reduction in inputs in view of various forms of N pollution. However, at the scale of the European Union, there is a lack of consistent, reliable, high spatial resolution data necessary for the calculation of regional N losses. To gain insight in the reduction in uncertainty achieved by using higher spatial resolution input data. This was done by comparing spatially disaggregated agricultural N budgets for Denmark for the period 2000–2010, generated by two versions of the European scale model Integrator, a version using high spatial resolution national data for Denmark (Integrator-DK) and a version using available data at the EU scale (Integrator-EU). Results showed that the national N fluxes in the N budgets calculated by the two versions of the model were within 1–5% for N inputs by fertilizer and manure excretion, but inputs by N fixation and N mineralisation differed by 50–100% and N uptake also differed by ca 25%, causing a difference in N leaching and runoff of nearly 50%. Comparison with an independently derived Danish national budget appeared generally to be better with Integrator-EU results in 2000 but with Integrator-DK results in 2010. However, the spatial distribution of manure distribution and N losses from Integrator-DK were closer to observed distributions than those from Integrator-EU. We conclude that close attention to local agronomic practices is needed when using a leaching fraction approach and that for effective support of environmental policymaking, Member States need to collect or submit high spatial resolution agricultural data to Eurostat.

Forests are important components of the greenhouse gas balance of Europe. There is considerable uncertainty about how predicted changes to climate and nitrogen deposition will perturb the carbon and nitrogen cycles of European forests and thereby alter forest growth, carbon sequestration and N2O emission. The present study aimed to quantify the carbon and nitrogen balance, including the exchange of greenhouse gases, of European forests over the period 2010–2030, with a particular emphasis on the spatial variability of change. The analysis was carried out for two tree species: European beech and Scots pine. For this purpose, four different dynamic models were used: BASFOR, DailyDayCent, INTEGRATOR and Landscape-DNDC. These models span a range from semi-empirical to complex mechanistic. Comparison of these models allowed assessment of the extent to which model predictions depended on differences in model inputs and structure. We found a European average carbon sink of 0.160 ± 0.020 kgC m−2 yr−1 (pine) and 0.138 ± 0.062 kgC m−2 yr−1 (beech) and N2O source of 0.285 ± 0.125 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (pine) and 0.575 ± 0.105 kgN ha−1 yr−1 (beech). The European average greenhouse gas potential of the carbon sink was 18 (pine) and 8 (beech) times that of the N2O source. Carbon sequestration was larger in the trees than in the soil. Carbon sequestration and forest growth were largest in central Europe and lowest in northern Sweden and Finland, N. Poland and S. Spain. No single driver was found to dominate change across Europe. Forests were found to be most sensitive to change in environmental drivers where the drivers were limiting growth, where changes were particularly large or where changes acted in concert. The models disagreed as to which environmental changes were most significant for the geographical variation in forest growth and as to which tree species showed the largest rate of carbon sequestration. Pine and beech forests were found to have differing sensitivities to environm