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Background: The cumulative risk of a false-positive mammogram can be substantial. We studied which variables affect the chance of a false-positive mammogram and estimated cumulative risks over nine sequential mammograms.Methods: We used medical records of 2227 randomly selected women who were 40-69 years of age on July 1, 1983, and had at least one screening mammogram. We used a Bayesian discrete hazard regression model developed for this study to test the effect of patient and radiologic variables on a first false-positive screening and to calculate cumulative risks of a false-positive mammogram.Results: Of 9747 screening mammograms, 6. 5% were false-positive; 23.8% of women experienced at least one false-positive result. After nine mammograms, the risk of a false-positive mammogram was 43.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 36.6%-53.6%). Risk ratios decreased with increasing age and increased with number of breast biopsies, family history of breast cancer, estrogen use, time between screenings, no comparison with previous mammograms, and the radiologist's tendency to call mammograms abnormal. For a woman with highest-risk variables, the estimated risk for a false-positive mammogram at the first and by the ninth mammogram was 98.1% (95% CI = 69.3%-100%) and 100% (95% CI = 99.9%-100%), respectively. A woman with lowest-risk variables had estimated risks of 0.7% (95% CI = 0.2%-1.9%) and 4.6% (95% CI = 1. 1%-12.5%), respectively.Conclusions: The cumulative risk of a false-positive mammogram over time varies substantially, depending on a woman's own risk profile and on several factors related to radiologic screening. By the ninth mammogram, the risk can be as low as 5% for women with low-risk variables and as high as 100% for women with multiple high-risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Previous studies have shown that the agreement among radiologists interpreting a test set of mammograms is relatively low. However, data available from real-world settings are sparse. We studied mammographic examination interpretations by radiologists practicing in a community setting and evaluated whether the variability in false-positive rates could be explained by patient, radiologist, and/or testing characteristics.Methods: We used medical records on randomly selected women aged 40-69 years who had had at least one screening mammographic examination in a community setting between January 1, 1985, and June 30, 1993. Twenty-four radiologists interpreted 8734 screening mammograms from 2169 women. Hierarchical logistic regression models were used to examine the impact of patient, radiologist, and testing characteristics. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Radiologists varied widely in mammographic examination interpretations, with a mass noted in 0%-7.9%, calcification in 0%-21.3%, and fibrocystic changes in 1.6%-27.8% of mammograms read. False-positive rates ranged from 2.6% to 15.9%. Younger and more recently trained radiologists had higher false-positive rates. Adjustment for patient, radiologist, and testing characteristics narrowed the range of false-positive rates to 3.5%-7.9%. If a woman went to two randomly selected radiologists, her odds, after adjustment, of having a false-positive reading would be 1.5 times greater for the radiologist at higher risk of a false-positive reading, compared with the radiologist at lowest risk (95% highest posterior density interval [similar to a confidence interval] = 1.17 to 2.08).Conclusion: Community radiologists varied widely in their false-positive rates in screening mammograms; this variability range was reduced by half, but not eliminated, after statistical adjustment for patient, radiologist, and testing characteristics. These characteristics need to be considered when evaluating false-positive rates in community mammographic examination screening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To examine racial differences in breast cancer screening in an HMO that provides screening at no cost.Design: Retrospective cohort study of breast cancer screening among African-American and white women. Breast cancer screening information was extracted from computerized medical records.Setting: A large HMO in New England.Patients/participants: White and African-American women (N = 2,072) enrolled for at least 10 years in the HMO.Main Results: Primary care clinicians documented recommending a screening mammogram significantly more often for African Americans than whites (70% vs 64%; P <.001). During the 10-year period, on average, white women obtained more mammograms (4.49 vs 3.93; P <.0001) and clinical breast examinations (5.35 vs 4.92; P <.01) than African-American women. However, a woman's race was no longer a statistically significant predictor of breast cancer screening after adjustment for differences in age, estimated household income, estrogen use, and body mass index (adjusted number of mammograms, 4.47 vs 4.25, P =.17; and adjusted number of clinical breast examinations, 5.35 vs 5. 31, P =.87).Conclusions: In this HMO, African-American and white women obtained breast cancer screening at similar rates. Comparisons with national data showed much higher screening rates in this HMO for both white and African-American women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To describe and compare trends in hospital admission rates for mechanical neck and back problems between 1982 and 1992 in Ontario and the United States.~Objective~Objective~A descriptive analysis of hospital admissions, with data for Ontario extracted from the Canadian Institute for Health Information database and data for the US extracted from the National Hospital Discharge Survey.~Design~Methods~All acute care hospitals in Ontario and a probability sample of acute care hospitals in the US.~Setting~Methods~Adults aged 20 years or more who were admitted to an acute care hospital for mechanical neck or back problems in 1982, 1987 or 1992. Mechanical neck and back problems were defined using an algorithm developed by the study team.~Patients~Methods~Hospital admission rate per 100,000 adults.~Outcome Measure~Methods~Between 1982 and 1992 the hospital admission rate for medically treated cases decreased by 52% in Ontario and by 75% in the US. Over the same period the admission rate for surgically treated cases increased by 14% and by 35% respectively. By 1992 the admission rate for medically treated cases in the US was 23% higher than that in Ontario, whereas the rate for surgically treated cases was 164% higher.~Results~Results~The hospital-based medical or surgical treatment of mechanical neck and back problems provides an example of discretionary care. The higher admission rates for surgery in the US may reflect a larger supply of surgical specialists and imaging units. Further work is needed to confirm these findings for other types of discretionary care and to compare the appropriateness of care and clinical outcomes for discretionary care in these 2 jurisdictions.~Conclusions~Conclusions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer screening is widely recommended, but often under-utilized. In addition, significant demographic differences in screening utilization exist. Insurance coverage may be one factor influencing utilization of colorectal cancer screening tests. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis of claims for outpatient services for Washington state Medicare beneficiaries in calendar year 2000. We determined the proportion of beneficiaries utilizing screening fecal occult blood tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, or double contrast barium enema in the overall population and various demographic subgroups. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the relative odds of screening in different demographic groups. Results Approximately 9.2% of beneficiaries had fecal occult blood tests, 7.2% had any colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, or barium enema (invasive) colon tests, and 3.5% had invasive tests for screening indications. Colonoscopy accounted for 41% of all invasive tests for screening indications. Women were more likely to receive fecal occult blood test screening (OR 1.18; 95%CI 1.15, 1.21) and less likely to receive invasive tests for screening indications than men (OR 0.80, 95%CI 0.77, 0.83). Whites were more likely than other racial groups to receive any type of screening. Rural residents were more likely than urban residents to have fecal occult blood tests (OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.17, 1.23) but less likely to receive invasive tests for screening indications (OR 0.89; 95%CI 0.85, 0.93). Conclusion Reported use of fecal occult blood testing remains modest. Overall use of the more invasive tests for screening indications remains essentially unchanged, but there has been a shift toward increased use of screening colonoscopy. Significant demographic differences in screening utilization persist despite consistent insurance coverage.

Background: Observation stays in Medicare have grown over the last 15 years, yet limited research exists on how observation may impact outcomes for older adults., Objective: To examine the relationship of an observation stay with 30-day hospital returns, total acute care days post-discharge, mortality, and out-of-pocket costs, compared to an inpatient admission., Design: Retrospective cohort study using instrumental variable analysis., Participants: A 20% sample of US Medicare beneficiaries admitted to acute care with a length of stay < 5 days between 2009 and 2019., Interventions: Observation stay vs inpatient admission., Main Measures: Unplanned hospital return within 30 days, total 30-day post-discharge acute care days, 30-day mortality, and 30-day acute care out-of-pocket spending., Key Results: A total of 3,958,377 hospitalizations met study criteria, of which 1,656,631 (42%) were observation stays and 2,301,746 (58%) were inpatient admissions. Compared to inpatient admissions, observation stays were associated with a 4.39 percentage point (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.56%, 5.22%) higher rate of 30-day unplanned hospital returns, but no difference in total 30-day post-discharge acute care days (difference - 0.02 days; 95% CI - 0.08, 0.03), no difference in 30-day mortality (difference 0.20 percentage points; 95% CI 0.00, 0.40), and lower 30-day out-of-pocket costs (difference - $552; 95% CI - $561, - $542)., Conclusions: Among Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized for fewer than 5 days, observation stay was associated with higher rates of 30-day unplanned hospital returns compared to inpatient admission. However, we simultaneously observed lower out-of-pocket costs among those hospitalized under an observation stay. The mixed results suggest that additional research and engagement with relevant parties is needed to optimize observation stay policy., Competing Interests: Declarations:. Conflict of Interest:: The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare related to this work., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society of General Internal Medicine.)

Aligning with Washington State's goal of reducing unnecessary emergency department (ED) use and improving linkage to outpatient primary and behavioral health care, this study evaluated whether an Emergency Department Information Exchange (EDIE) improved linkage to care for Medicaid enrollees with mental health conditions. Follow-up with any physician at 30 days increased slightly, although mental health-specific follow-up declined over time. Difference-in-differences estimates revealed no effect of EDIE on linkage to care after an ED visit. Medicaid beneficiaries with mental health needs and high utilization of the ED likely require additional support to increase timely and appropriate follow-up care.

Importance: Decreases in 30-day readmissions following the implementation of the Medicare Hospital Readmissions Reduction Program (HRRP) have occurred against the backdrop of increasing hospital observation stay use, yet observation stays are not captured in readmission measures., Objective: To examine whether the HRRP was associated with decreases in 30-day readmissions after accounting for observation stays., Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study included a 20% sample of inpatient admissions and observation stays among Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries from January 1, 2009, to December 31, 2015. Data analysis was performed from November 2021 to June 2022. A differences-in-differences analysis assessed changes in 30-day readmissions after the announcement of the HRRP and implementation of penalties for target conditions (heart failure, acute myocardial infarction, and pneumonia) vs nontarget conditions under scenarios that excluded and included observation stays., Main Outcomes and Measures: Thirty-day inpatient admissions and observation stays., Results: The study included 8 944 295 hospitalizations (mean [SD] age, 78.7 [8.2] years; 58.6% were female; 1.3% Asian; 10.0% Black; 2.0% Hispanic; 0.5% North American Native; 85.0% White; and 1.2% other or unknown). Observation stays increased from 2.3% to 4.4% (91.3% relative increase) of index hospitalizations among target conditions and 14.1% to 21.3% (51.1% relative increase) of index hospitalizations for nontarget conditions. Readmission rates decreased significantly after the announcement of the HRRP and returned to baseline by the time penalties were implemented for both target and nontarget conditions regardless of whether observation stays were included. When only inpatient hospitalizations were counted, decreasing readmissions accrued into a -1.48 percentage point (95% CI, -1.65 to -1.31 percentage points) absolute reduction in readmission rates by the postpenalty period for target conditions and -1.13 percentage point (95% CI, -1.30 to -0.96 percentage points) absolute reduction in readmission rates by the postpenalty period for nontarget conditions. This reduction corresponded to a statistically significant differential change of -0.35 percentage points (95% CI, -0.59 to -0.11 percentage points). Accounting for observation stays more than halved the absolute decrease in readmission rates for target conditions (-0.66 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.83 to -0.49 percentage points). Nontarget conditions showed an overall greater decrease during the same period (-0.76 percentage points; 95% CI, -0.92 to -0.59 percentage points), corresponding to a differential change in readmission rates of 0.10 percentage points (95% CI, -0.14 to 0.33 percentage points) that was not statistically significant., Conclusions and Relevance: The findings of this study suggest that the reduction of readmissions associated with the implementation of the HRRP was smaller than originally reported. More than half of the decrease in readmissions for target conditions appears to be attributable to the reclassification of inpatient admission to observation stays.

Objective: To assess the effects of a program mandating the statewide adoption of an Emergency Department Information Exchange (EDIE) on health care utilization and spending among Medicaid enrollees in Washington state., Data Source: Medicaid claims and managed care encounters from the Washington Health Care Authority., Study Design: A difference-in-differences analysis with trends was used to compare changes in ED visits, inpatient admissions, primary care visits, and expenditures among frequent ED users (≥5 ED visits in past year) to those of infrequent users through the second year Washington's program., Data Extraction: The study population included adult Medicaid enrollees with ED visits between January 2010 and October 2014., Principal Findings: There were 505,667 ED visits among 153,543 unique enrollees included in the analysis. Washington's program was associated with a small, but statistically significant differential change of -0.70 ED visits per enrollee per year (95% CI: -1.24, -0.16) in the first year after EDIE was mandated, or 8.2% of the baseline ED visit rate among frequent users. However, by the second year of implementation, these effects on ED use were no longer significant, nor were there any measurable effects on inpatient admissions, primary care use, or expenditures in any period., Conclusions: Statewide implementation of EDIE was associated with a small reduction in ED use among frequent users in the first year of the program but did not change overall spending or other utilization outcomes., (© 2022 Health Research and Educational Trust.)

Background: Lower extremity amputation is common among patients with ESRD, and often portends a poor prognosis. However, little is known about end-of-life care among patients with ESRD who undergo amputation., Methods: We conducted a mortality follow-back study of Medicare beneficiaries with ESRD who died in 2002 through 2014 to analyze patterns of lower extremity amputation in the last year of life compared with a parallel cohort of beneficiaries without ESRD. We also examined the relationship between amputation and end-of-life care among the patients with ESRD., Results: Overall, 8% of 754,777 beneficiaries with ESRD underwent at least one lower extremity amputation in their last year of life compared with 1% of 958,412 beneficiaries without ESRD. Adjusted analyses of patients with ESRD showed that those who had undergone lower extremity amputation were substantially more likely than those who had not to have been admitted to-and to have had prolonged stays in-acute and subacute care settings during their final year of life. Amputation was also associated with a greater likelihood of dying in the hospital, dialysis discontinuation before death, and less time receiving hospice services., Conclusions: Nearly one in ten patients with ESRD undergoes lower extremity amputation in their last year of life. These patients have prolonged stays in acute and subacute health care settings and appear to have limited access to hospice services. These findings likely signal unmet palliative care needs among seriously ill patients with ESRD who undergo amputation as well as opportunities to improve their care., (Copyright © 2019 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Little is known about the circumstances under which older adults initiate chronic dialysis and subsequent outcomes. Using national registry data, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 416,657 Medicare beneficiaries aged ≥67 years who initiated chronic dialysis between January 1995 and December 2008. Our goal was to define the relationship between health care intensity around the time of dialysis initiation and subsequent survival and patterns of hospitalization, use of intensive procedures (mechanical ventilation, feeding tube placement, and cardiopulmonary resuscitation), and discontinuation of dialysis before death. We found that most patients (64.5%) initiated dialysis in the hospital, including 36.6% who were hospitalized for ≥2 weeks and 7.4% who underwent one or more intensive procedures. Compared with patients who initiated dialysis in the outpatient setting, those who received the highest intensity of care at dialysis initiation (those hospitalized ≥2 weeks and receiving at least one intensive procedure) had a shorter median survival (0.7 versus 2.1 years; P<0.001), spent a greater percentage of remaining follow-up time in the hospital (median, 22.9% versus 3.1%; P<0.001), were more likely to undergo subsequent intensive procedures (44.9% versus 26.0%; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.33; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.27 to 2.39), and were less likely to have discontinued dialysis before death (19.1% versus 26.2%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% CI, 0.65 to 0.72). In conclusion, most older adults initiate chronic dialysis in the hospital. Those who have a prolonged hospital stay and receive other forms of life support around the time of dialysis initiation have limited survival and more intensive patterns of subsequent healthcare utilization.

Background: Colorectal cancer screening is widely recommended, but often under-utilized. In addition, significant demographic differences in screening utilization exist. Insurance coverage may be one factor influencing utilization of colorectal cancer screening tests., Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of claims for outpatient services for Washington state Medicare beneficiaries in calendar year 2000. We determined the proportion of beneficiaries utilizing screening fecal occult blood tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy, colonoscopy, or double contrast barium enema in the overall population and various demographic subgroups. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to determine the relative odds of screening in different demographic groups., Results: Approximately 9.2% of beneficiaries had fecal occult blood tests, 7.2% had any colonoscopy, flexible sigmoidoscopy, or barium enema (invasive) colon tests, and 3.5% had invasive tests for screening indications. Colonoscopy accounted for 41% of all invasive tests for screening indications. Women were more likely to receive fecal occult blood test screening (OR 1.18; 95%CI 1.15, 1.21) and less likely to receive invasive tests for screening indications than men (OR 0.80, 95%CI 0.77, 0.83). Whites were more likely than other racial groups to receive any type of screening. Rural residents were more likely than urban residents to have fecal occult blood tests (OR 1.20, 95%CI 1.17, 1.23) but less likely to receive invasive tests for screening indications (OR 0.89; 95%CI 0.85, 0.93)., Conclusion: Reported use of fecal occult blood testing remains modest. Overall use of the more invasive tests for screening indications remains essentially unchanged, but there has been a shift toward increased use of screening colonoscopy. Significant demographic differences in screening utilization persist despite consistent insurance coverage.

Objective: To examine racial differences in breast cancer screening in an HMO that provides screening at no cost., Design: Retrospective cohort study of breast cancer screening among African-American and white women. Breast cancer screening information was extracted from computerized medical records., Setting: A large HMO in New England., Patients/participants: White and African-American women (N = 2,072) enrolled for at least 10 years in the HMO., Main Results: Primary care clinicians documented recommending a screening mammogram significantly more often for African Americans than whites (70% vs 64%; P <.001). During the 10-year period, on average, white women obtained more mammograms (4.49 vs 3.93; P <.0001) and clinical breast examinations (5.35 vs 4.92; P <.01) than African-American women. However, a woman's race was no longer a statistically significant predictor of breast cancer screening after adjustment for differences in age, estimated household income, estrogen use, and body mass index (adjusted number of mammograms, 4.47 vs 4.25, P =.17; and adjusted number of clinical breast examinations, 5.35 vs 5. 31, P =.87)., Conclusions: In this HMO, African-American and white women obtained breast cancer screening at similar rates. Comparisons with national data showed much higher screening rates in this HMO for both white and African-American women.