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Objective: Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a heterogeneous disorder characterized by a reduction in fertility and metabolic dysfunction. Unfortunately, due to a lack of clear presentation, it is often a long process of diagnosis. In this study, we investigated bile acids as potential biomarkers. Materials and Methods: Subjects were recruited and stratified into groups based on body mass index and PCOS status. Biometric data and plasma were acquired to understand bile acid profiles and related markers. Results: Taurocholic acid (TCA) and taurodeoxycholic acid were elevated in PCOS subjects with obesity in comparison to controls without PCOS. Fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF-21), a metabolic regulator implemented in bile acid metabolism, was elevated in PCOS patients and was positively correlated with TCA changes. Conclusions: We present evidence suggesting that bile acids may be novel diagnostic targets in obese patients with PCOS while further studies need to delineate the interplay between FGF-21, bile acids, and testosterone in the early detection of PCOS.

Finding an interpretable and compact representation of complex neuroimaging data is extremely useful for understanding brain behavioral mapping and hence for explaining the biological underpinnings of mental disorders. However, hand-crafted representations, as well as linear transformations, may inadequately capture the considerable variability across individuals. Here, we implemented a data-driven approach using a three-dimensional autoencoder on two large-scale datasets. This approach provides a latent representation of high-dimensional task-fMRI data which can account for demographic characteristics whilst also being readily interpretable both in the latent space learned by the autoencoder and in the original voxel space. This was achieved by addressing a joint optimization problem that simultaneously reconstructs the data and predicts clinical or demographic variables. We then applied normative modeling to the latent variables to define summary statistics ('latent indices') and establish a multivariate mapping to non-imaging measures. Our model, trained with multi-task fMRI data from the Human Connectome Project (HCP) and UK biobank task-fMRI data, demonstrated high performance in age and sex predictions and successfully captured complex behavioral characteristics while preserving individual variability through a latent representation. Our model also performed competitively with respect to various baseline models including several variants of principal components analysis, independent components analysis and classical regions of interest, both in terms of reconstruction accuracy and strength of association with behavioral variables., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Zabihi et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: Inter-individual variability in neurobiological and clinical characteristics in mental illness is often overlooked by classical group-mean case-control studies. Studies using normative modelling to infer person-specific deviations of grey matter volume have indicated that group means are not representative of most individuals. The extent to which this variability is present in white matter morphometry, which is integral to brain function, remains unclear., Methods: We applied Warped Bayesian Linear Regression normative models to T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging data and mapped inter-individual variability in person-specific white matter volume deviations in 1,294 cases (58% male) diagnosed with one of six disorders (attention-deficit/hyperactivity, autism, bipolar, major depressive, obsessive-compulsive and schizophrenia) and 1,465 matched controls (54% male) recruited across 25 scan sites. We developed a framework to characterize deviation heterogeneity at multiple spatial scales, from individual voxels, through inter-regional connections, specific brain regions, and spatially extended brain networks., Results: The specific locations of white matter volume deviations were highly heterogeneous across participants, affecting the same voxel in fewer than 8% of individuals with the same diagnosis. For autism and schizophrenia, negative deviations (i.e., areas where volume is lower than normative expectations) aggregated into common tracts, regions and large-scale networks in up to 35% of individuals., Conclusions: The prevalence of white matter volume deviations was lower than previously observed in grey matter, and the specific location of these deviations was highly heterogeneous when considering voxel-wise spatial resolution. Evidence of aggregation within common pathways and networks was apparent in schizophrenia and autism but not other disorders., Competing Interests: Disclosures This manuscript has been submitted on bioRxiv. KMA is a scientific advisor to and shareholder in BrainKey Inc., a medical image analysis software company. BF has received educational speaking fees from Medice GmbH. CFB is a director and shareholder of SBGNeuro Ltd. OAA is a consultant to Cortechs.ai and received speaker’s honorarium from Lundbeck, Janssen, Otsuka and Sunovion. NC participed in advisory boards and received speaker’s honoraria from Angelini, Esteve, Janssen, Lundbeck, Novartis, Pfizer, and Viatris. Furthermore, they have been awarded research grants from the Ministry of Health, Ministry of Science and Innovation (CIBERSAM), and the Strategic Plan for Research and Innovation in Health (PERIS) for the period 2016–2020, as well as from Recercaixa and Marato TV3. MY received philanthropic donations from the David Winston Turner Endowment Fund, Wilson Foundation. He has also received funding to conduct sponsored Investigator-Initiated trials (including Incannex Healthcare Ltd). These funding sources had no role in the design, management, data analysis, presentation, or interpretation and write-up of the data. MY also sits on the Advisory Boards of Centre of The Urban Mental Health, University of Amsterdam; and Enosis Therapeutics. MB has received Grant/Research Support from the NIH, Cooperative Research Centre, Simons Autism Foundation, Cancer Council of Victoria, Stanley Medical Research Foundation, Medical Benefits Fund, National Health and Medical Research Council, Medical Research Futures Fund, Beyond Blue, Rotary Health, A2 milk company, Meat and Livestock Board, Woolworths, Avant and the Harry Windsor Foundation, has been a speaker for Abbot, Astra Zeneca, Janssen and Janssen, Lundbeck and Merck and served as a consultant to Allergan, Astra Zeneca, Bioadvantex, Bionomics, Collaborative Medicinal Development, Eisai, Janssen and Janssen, Lundbeck Merck, Pfizer and Servier – all unrelated to this work. MB has received grant/research support from National Health and Medical Research Council, Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Future Fund, Victorian Medical Research Acceleration Fund, Centre for Research Excellence CRE, Victorian Government Department of Jobs, Precincts and Regions and Victorian COVID-19 Research Fund. He received honoraria from Springer, Oxford University Press, Cambridge University Press, Allen and Unwin, Lundbeck, Controversias Barcelona, Servier, Medisquire, HealthEd, ANZJP, EPA, Janssen, Medplan, Milken Institute, RANZCP, Abbott India, ASCP, Headspace and Sandoz. All other authors report no biomedical financial interests or potential conflicts of interest.

Introduction: Overlooking the heterogeneity in Alzheimer's disease (AD) may lead to diagnostic delays and failures. Neuroanatomical normative modeling captures individual brain variation and may inform our understanding of individual differences in AD-related atrophy., Methods: We applied neuroanatomical normative modeling to magnetic resonance imaging from a real-world clinical cohort with confirmed AD ( n  = 86). Regional cortical thickness was compared to a healthy reference cohort ( n  = 33,072) and the number of outlying regions was summed (total outlier count) and mapped at individual- and group-levels., Results: The superior temporal sulcus contained the highest proportion of outliers (60%). Elsewhere, overlap between patient atrophy patterns was low. Mean total outlier count was higher in patients who were non-amnestic, at more advanced disease stages, and without depressive symptoms. Amyloid burden was negatively associated with outlier count., Discussion: Brain atrophy in AD is highly heterogeneous and neuroanatomical normative modeling can be used to explore anatomo-clinical correlations in individual patients., Competing Interests: J.L. is employed by Hermes Medical Solutions and obtains a salary from them; he is Vice President of Research and Development at Hermes Medical Solutions. Z.W. previously participated in the Eli Lilly PET advisory board and was an amyloid‐PET read trainer. R.P. previously sat on an advisory board for Eli Lilly and received support from GE for research imaging from 2014 to 2018. PM gave an educational talk at a meeting organized by GE. None of the authors currently have funding or support from any commercial organization involved in amyloid PET imaging. Author disclosures are available in the supporting information., (© 2024 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia: Diagnosis, Assessment & Disease Monitoring published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

This work illustrates the use of normative models in a longitudinal neuroimaging study of children aged 6-17 years and demonstrates how such models can be used to make meaningful comparisons in longitudinal studies, even when individuals are scanned with different scanners across successive study waves. More specifically, we first estimated a large-scale reference normative model using Hierarchical Bayesian Regression from N = 42,993 individuals across the lifespan and from dozens of sites. We then transfer these models to a longitudinal developmental cohort (N = 6285) with three measurement waves acquired on two different scanners that were unseen during estimation of the reference models. We show that the use of normative models provides individual deviation scores that are independent of scanner effects and efficiently accommodate inter-site variations. Moreover, we provide empirical evidence to guide the optimization of sample size for the transfer of prior knowledge about the distribution of regional cortical thicknesses. We show that a transfer set containing as few as 25 samples per site can lead to good performance metrics on the test set. Finally, we demonstrate the clinical utility of this approach by showing that deviation scores obtained from the transferred normative models are able to detect and chart morphological heterogeneity in individuals born preterm., (© 2024 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

There is currently no quantifiable method to predict long-term clinical outcomes in patients presenting with a first episode of psychosis. A major barrier to developing useful markers for this is biological heterogeneity, where many different pathological mechanisms may underly the same set of symptoms in different individuals. Normative modelling has been used to quantify this heterogeneity in established psychotic disorders by identifying regions of the cortex which are thinner than expected based on a normative healthy population range. These brain atypicalities are measured at the individual level and therefore potentially useful in a clinical setting. However, it is still unclear whether alterations in individual brain structure can be detected at the time of the first psychotic episode, and whether they are associated with subsequent clinical outcomes. We applied normative modelling of cortical thickness to a sample of first-episode psychosis patients, with the aim of quantifying heterogeneity and to use any pattern of cortical atypicality to predict symptoms and response to antipsychotic medication at timepoints from baseline up to 95 weeks (median follow-ups = 4). T1-weighted brain magnetic resonance images from the GAP and OPTiMiSE samples were processed with Freesurfer V6.0.0 yielding 148 cortical thickness features. An existing normative model of cortical thickness (n = 37,126) was adapted to integrate data from each clinical site and account for effects of gender and site. Our test sample consisted of control participants (n = 149, mean age = 26, SD = 6.7) and patient data (n = 295, mean age = 26, SD = 6.7), this sample was used for estimating deviations from the normative model and subsequent statistical analysis. For each individual, the 148 cortical thickness features were mapped to centiles of the normative distribution and converted to z-scores reflecting the distance from the population mean. Individual cortical thickness metrics of +/- 2.6 standard deviations from the mean were considered extreme deviations from the norm. We found that no more than 6.4% of psychosis patients had extreme deviations in a single brain region (regional overlap) demonstrating a high degree of heterogeneity. Mann-Whitney U tests were run on z-scores for each region and significantly lower z-scores were observed in FEP patients in the frontal, temporal, parietal and occipital lobes. Finally, linear mixed-effects modelling showed that negative deviations in cortical thickness in parietal and temporal regions at baseline are related to more severe negative symptoms over the medium-term. This study shows that even at the early stage of symptom onset normative modelling provides a framework to identify individualised cortical markers which can be used for early personalised intervention and stratification., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: The neurobiology of mental disorders remains poorly understood despite substantial scientific efforts, due to large clinical heterogeneity and to a lack of tools suitable to map individual variability. Normative modeling is one recently successful framework that can address these problems by comparing individuals to a reference population. The methodological underpinnings of normative modelling are, however, relatively complex and computationally expensive. Our research group has developed the python-based normative modelling package Predictive Clinical Neuroscience toolkit (PCNtoolkit) which provides access to many validated algorithms for normative modelling. PCNtoolkit has since proven to be a strong foundation for large scale normative modelling, but still requires significant computation power, time and technical expertise to develop., Methods: To address these problems, we introduce PCNportal. PCNportal is an online platform integrated with PCNtoolkit that offers access to pre-trained research-grade normative models estimated on tens of thousands of participants, without the need for computation power or programming abilities. PCNportal is an easy-to-use web interface that is highly scalable to large user bases as necessary. Finally, we demonstrate how the resulting normalized deviation scores can be used in a clinical application through a schizophrenia classification task applied to cortical thickness and volumetric data from the longitudinal Northwestern University Schizophrenia Data and Software Tool (NUSDAST) dataset., Results: At each longitudinal timepoint, the transferred normative models achieved a mean[std. dev.] explained variance of 9.4[8.8]%, 9.2[9.2]%, 5.6[7.4]% respectively in the control group and 4.7[5.5]%, 6.0[6.2]%, 4.2[6.9]% in the schizophrenia group. Diagnostic classifiers achieved AUC of 0.78, 0.76 and 0.71 respectively., Conclusions: This replicates the utility of normative models for diagnostic classification of schizophrenia and showcases the use of PCNportal for clinical neuroimaging. By facilitating and speeding up research with high-quality normative models, this work contributes to research in inter-individual variability, clinical heterogeneity and precision medicine., Competing Interests: Competing interests: CFB is director and shareholder of SBGNeuro, (Copyright: © 2023 Barkema P et al.)

Introduction: Psychiatric comorbidities have a significant impact on the course of illness in patients with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. To accurately predict outcomes for individual patients using computerized prognostic models, it is essential to consider these comorbidities and their influence., Methods: In our study, we utilized a multi-modal deep learning architecture to forecast symptomatic remission, focusing on a multicenter sample of patients with first-episode psychosis from the OPTiMiSE study. Additionally, we introduced a counterfactual model explanation technique to examine how scores on the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI) affected the likelihood of remission, both at the group level and for individual patients., Results: Our findings at the group level revealed that most comorbidities had a negative association with remission. Among them, current and recurrent depressive disorders consistently exerted the greatest negative impact on the probability of remission across patients. However, we made an interesting observation: current suicidality within the past month and substance abuse within the past 12 months were associated with an increased chance of remission in patients. We found a high degree of variability among patients at the individual level. Through hierarchical clustering analysis, we identified two subgroups: one in which comorbidities had a relatively limited effect on remission (approximately 45% of patients), and another in which comorbidities more strongly influenced remission. By incorporating comorbidities into individualized prognostic prediction models, we determined which specific comorbidities had the greatest impact on remission at both the group level and for individual patients., Discussion: These results highlight the importance of identifying and including relevant comorbidities in prediction models, providing valuable insights for improving the treatment and prognosis of patients with psychotic disorders. Furthermore, they open avenues for further research into the efficacy of treating these comorbidities to enhance overall patient outcomes., Competing Interests: RK reports consulting fees from Alkermes, Sunovion, Gedeon-Richter, and Otsuka. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2023 van Dee, Kia, Winter-van Rossum, Kahn, Cahn and Schnack.)

Clinical neuroimaging data availability has grown substantially in the last decade, providing the potential for studying heterogeneity in clinical cohorts on a previously unprecedented scale. Normative modeling is an emerging statistical tool for dissecting heterogeneity in complex brain disorders. However, its application remains technically challenging due to medical data privacy issues and difficulties in dealing with nuisance variation, such as the variability in the image acquisition process. Here, we approach the problem of estimating a reference normative model across a massive population using a massive multi-center neuroimaging dataset. To this end, we introduce a federated probabilistic framework using hierarchical Bayesian regression (HBR) to complete the life-cycle of normative modeling. The proposed model provides the possibilities to learn, update, and adapt the model parameters on decentralized neuroimaging data. Our experimental results confirm the superiority of HBR in deriving more accurate normative ranges on large multi-site neuroimaging datasets compared to the current standard methods. In addition, our approach provides the possibility to recalibrate and reuse the learned model on local datasets and even on datasets with very small sample sizes. The proposed method will facilitate applications of normative modeling as a medical tool for screening the biological deviations in individuals affected by complex illnesses such as mental disorders., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: Ole A. Andreassen is a consultant to HealthLytix and received speaker’s honorarium from Lundbeck. Christian F. Beckmann is shareholder and director of SBG Neuro. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials., (Copyright: © 2022 Kia et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

The potential of normative modeling to make individualized predictions from neuroimaging data has enabled inferences that go beyond the case-control approach. However, site effects are often confounded with variables of interest in a complex manner and can bias estimates of normative models, which has impeded the application of normative models to large multi-site neuroimaging data sets. In this study, we suggest accommodating for these site effects by including them as random effects in a hierarchical Bayesian model. We compared the performance of a linear and a non-linear hierarchical Bayesian model in modeling the effect of age on cortical thickness. We used data of 570 healthy individuals from the ABIDE (autism brain imaging data exchange) data set in our experiments. In addition, we used data from individuals with autism to test whether our models are able to retain clinically useful information while removing site effects. We compared the proposed single stage hierarchical Bayesian method to several harmonization techniques commonly used to deal with additive and multiplicative site effects using a two stage regression, including regressing out site and harmonizing for site with ComBat, both with and without explicitly preserving variance caused by age and sex as biological variation of interest, and with a non-linear version of ComBat. In addition, we made predictions from raw data, in which site has not been accommodated for. The proposed hierarchical Bayesian method showed the best predictive performance according to multiple metrics. Beyond that, the resulting z-scores showed little to no residual site effects, yet still retained clinically useful information. In contrast, performance was particularly poor for the regression model and the ComBat model in which age and sex were not explicitly modeled. In all two stage harmonization models, predictions were poorly scaled, suffering from a loss of more than 90% of the original variance. Our results show the value of hierarchical Bayesian regression methods for accommodating site variation in neuroimaging data, which provides an alternative to harmonization techniques. While the approach we propose may have broad utility, our approach is particularly well suited to normative modeling where the primary interest is in accurate modeling of inter-subject variation and statistical quantification of deviations from a reference model., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Defining reference models for population variation, and the ability to study individual deviations is essential for understanding inter-individual variability and its relation to the onset and progression of medical conditions. In this work, we assembled a reference cohort of neuroimaging data from 82 sites (N=58,836; ages 2-100) and used normative modeling to characterize lifespan trajectories of cortical thickness and subcortical volume. Models are validated against a manually quality checked subset (N=24,354) and we provide an interface for transferring to new data sources. We showcase the clinical value by applying the models to a transdiagnostic psychiatric sample (N=1985), showing they can be used to quantify variability underlying multiple disorders whilst also refining case-control inferences. These models will be augmented with additional samples and imaging modalities as they become available. This provides a common reference platform to bind results from different studies and ultimately paves the way for personalized clinical decision-making., Competing Interests: SR, CF, RD, SK, TW, MZ, PB, AW, SV, DA, LH, JB, PD, PM, RM, AS, CS, IT, ED, SC, BP, MH, SB, LH, DA, CW, LW, RZ, AM No competing interests declared, OA is a consultant for HealthLytix and received speaker's honorarium from Lundbeck and Sunovion, HR received speaker's honorarium from Lundbeck and Janssen, CB is director and shareholder of SBGNeuro Ltd, (© 2022, Rutherford et al.)

Schizophrenia and related disorders have heterogeneous outcomes. Individualized prediction of long-term outcomes may be helpful in improving treatment decisions. Utilizing extensive baseline data of 523 patients with a psychotic disorder and variable illness duration, we predicted symptomatic and global outcomes at 3-year and 6-year follow-ups. We classified outcomes as (1) symptomatic: in remission or not in remission, and (2) global outcome, using the Global Assessment of Functioning (GAF) scale, divided into good (GAF ≥ 65) and poor (GAF < 65). Aiming for a robust and interpretable prediction model, we employed a linear support vector machine and recursive feature elimination within a nested cross-validation design to obtain a lean set of predictors. Generalization to out-of-study samples was estimated using leave-one-site-out cross-validation. Prediction accuracies were above chance and ranged from 62.2% to 64.7% (symptomatic outcome), and 63.5-67.6% (global outcome). Leave-one-site-out cross-validation demonstrated the robustness of our models, with a minor drop in predictive accuracies of 2.3% on average. Important predictors included GAF scores, psychotic symptoms, quality of life, antipsychotics use, psychosocial needs, and depressive symptoms. These robust, albeit modestly accurate, long-term prognostic predictions based on lean predictor sets indicate the potential of machine learning models complementing clinical judgment and decision-making. Future model development may benefit from studies scoping patient's and clinicians' needs in prognostication.

Identifying brain processes involved in the risk and development of mental disorders is a major aim. We recently reported substantial interindividual heterogeneity in brain structural aberrations among patients with schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. Estimating the normative range of voxel-based morphometry (VBM) data among healthy individuals using a Gaussian process regression (GPR) enables us to map individual deviations from the healthy range in unseen datasets. Here, we aim to replicate our previous results in two independent samples of patients with schizophrenia (n1 = 94; n2 = 105), bipolar disorder (n1 = 116; n2 = 61), and healthy individuals (n1 = 400; n2 = 312). In line with previous findings with exception of the cerebellum our results revealed robust group level differences between patients and healthy individuals, yet only a small proportion of patients with schizophrenia or bipolar disorder exhibited extreme negative deviations from normality in the same brain regions. These direct replications support that group level-differences in brain structure disguise considerable individual differences in brain aberrations, with important implications for the interpretation and generalization of group-level brain imaging findings to the individual with a mental disorder., (© 2021 The Authors. Human Brain Mapping published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

Autism is a complex neurodevelopmental condition with substantial phenotypic, biological, and etiologic heterogeneity. It remains a challenge to identify biomarkers to stratify autism into replicable cognitive or biological subtypes. Here, we aim to introduce a novel methodological framework for parsing neuroanatomical subtypes within a large cohort of individuals with autism. We used cortical thickness (CT) in a large and well-characterized sample of 316 participants with autism (88 female, age mean: 17.2 ± 5.7) and 206 with neurotypical development (79 female, age mean: 17.5 ± 6.1) aged 6-31 years across six sites from the EU-AIMS multi-center Longitudinal European Autism Project. Five biologically based putative subtypes were derived using normative modeling of CT and spectral clustering. Three of these clusters showed relatively widespread decreased CT and two showed relatively increased CT. These subtypes showed morphometric differences from one another, providing a potential explanation for inconsistent case-control findings in autism, and loaded differentially and more strongly onto symptoms and polygenic risk, indicating a dilution of clinical effects across heterogeneous cohorts. Our results provide an important step towards parsing the heterogeneous neurobiology of autism.

Brain decoding is a popular multivariate approach for hypothesis testing in neuroimaging. Linear classifiers are widely employed in the brain decoding paradigm to discriminate among experimental conditions. Then, the derived linear weights are visualized in the form of multivariate brain maps to further study spatio-temporal patterns of underlying neural activities. It is well known that the brain maps derived from weights of linear classifiers are hard to interpret because of high correlations between predictors, low signal to noise ratios, and the high dimensionality of neuroimaging data. Therefore, improving the interpretability of brain decoding approaches is of primary interest in many neuroimaging studies. Despite extensive studies of this type, at present, there is no formal definition for interpretability of multivariate brain maps. As a consequence, there is no quantitative measure for evaluating the interpretability of different brain decoding methods. In this paper, first, we present a theoretical definition of interpretability in brain decoding; we show that the interpretability of multivariate brain maps can be decomposed into their reproducibility and representativeness. Second, as an application of the proposed definition, we exemplify a heuristic for approximating the interpretability in multivariate analysis of evoked magnetoencephalography (MEG) responses. Third, we propose to combine the approximated interpretability and the generalization performance of the brain decoding into a new multi-objective criterion for model selection. Our results, for the simulated and real MEG data, show that optimizing the hyper-parameters of the regularized linear classifier based on the proposed criterion results in more informative multivariate brain maps. More importantly, the presented definition provides the theoretical background for quantitative evaluation of interpretability, and hence, facilitates the development of more effective brain decoding algorithms in the future.