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1. Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Author

Bingyi Yang, Angkana T. Huang, Bernardo Garcia-Carreras, William E. Hart, Andrea Staid, Matt D. T. Hitchings, Elizabeth C. Lee, Chanelle J. Howe, Kyra H. Grantz, Amy Wesolowksi, Joseph Chadi Lemaitre, Susan Rattigan, Carlos Moreno, Brooke A. Borgert, Celeste Dale, Nicole Quigley, Andrew Cummings, Alizée McLorg, Kaelene LoMonaco, Sarah Schlossberg, Drew Barron-Kraus, Harrison Shrock, UFCOVID Interventions Team, Justin Lessler, Carl D. Laird, and Derek A. T. Cummings

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Disentangling the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission is challenging as they have been used in different combinations across time and space. This study shows that, early in the epidemic, school/daycare closures and stopping nursing home visits were associated with the biggest reduction in transmission in the United States.

Published
2021
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2. Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States

Author

Sarah Schlossberg, Matthew D. Hitchings, Elizabeth C. Lee, Susan M Rattigan, Kaelene LoMonaco, Justin Lessler, Alizée McLorg, Celeste Dale, Kyra H. Grantz, Nicole Quigley, Brooke A. Borgert, Andrew Cummings, Drew Barron-Kraus, Bernardo García-Carreras, Angkana T. Huang, Amy Wesolowksi, Andrea Staid, Bingyi Yang, Chanelle J. Howe, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Harrison Shrock, Carlos A. Moreno, William E. Hart, Ufcovid Interventions Team, Derek A. T. Cummings, and Carl D. Laird

Subjects
business.industry, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Psychological intervention, Confidence interval, law.invention, Transmission (mechanics), law, Intervention (counseling), Pandemic, Medicine, Closure (psychology), business, Basic reproduction number, Demography
Abstract

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with an Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-1.39)* or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.39)*. While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.

Published
2020
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