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How do we notice what is arriving? As authors, we collaboratively play with the continuation and momentum of emergence presented as a polyvocal text. As part of our research, we video-taped a collaborative mark-making activity led by two graduate students in a PhD cohort. What emerges from our interaction of situated dialogic inquiry is a heteroglossic performative text on emergence. The first 40 seconds of the video is woven into a paper that in itself becomes an ontological practice in emergence. The paper, in message and mode, delves into a series of moments and becomes a series of moments that ask the question: What is the play of interrelatedness in a collective inquiry of emergence?

Accurate flood prediction models and effective flood preparedness rely on thoroughly understanding rainfall–runoff dynamics. Similarly, effective rainfall–runoff models account for multiple interrelated parameters for robust runoff prediction. Process-based physical models offer valuable insights into hydrological processes, but their effectiveness can be hindered by data limitations or difficulties in acquiring specific data. Motivated by the frequent flooding events and limited data availability in the East Branch DuPage watershed, Illinois, this study addresses a critical gap in research by investigating effective discharge prediction methods. In this study, two significant machine learning (ML) models, artificial neural network (ANN) and support vector machine (SVM), were employed for discharge prediction. Historical data spanning from 2006 to 2021 were utilized to assess the performance of the models. Hyperparameter tuning was performed on the models to optimize their performance, and root mean square error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), percent bias (PBIAS), coefficient of determination (R2), and the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE) were used as evaluation metrics. Although both machine learning models demonstrated strong performance, the analysis revealed that the ANN model emerged as the more reliable option for predicting discharge in the watershed. Crucially, the ANN model surpassed the SVM model's performance, achieving superior accuracy in predicting peak discharge events within the study area. Our findings have the potential to assist decision-makers and communities in implementing more dependable flood mitigation strategies, particularly in regions where hydrology data are limited. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Floods are amongst the most destructive and costly natural disasters impacting communities around the globe. The severity and reoccurrence of flooding events have been more common in recent years as a result of the changing climate and urbanization. Best Management Practices (BMPs) are commonly used flood management techniques that aim to alleviate flooding and its impacts by capturing surface runoff and promoting infiltration. Recent studies have examined the effectiveness of BMPs in countering the effects of flooding; however, the performance of such strategies still needs to be analyzed for possible future climate change. In this context, this research employs climate model-driven datasets from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program to evaluate the effects of climate change on urban hydrology within a study region by calculating historical and projected 6 h 100-year storm depths. Finally, the climate-induced design storms are simulated in the PCSWMM model, and the three BMP options (i.e., porous pavement, infiltration trench, and green roof) are evaluated to alleviate the impact of flooding events. This study quantifies the impact of changing climate on flood severity based on future climate models. The results indicate that peak discharge and peak volume are projected to increase by a range of 5% to 43% and 8% to 94%, respectively. In addition, the results demonstrated that green roofs, Permeable Pavement, and infiltration trenches help to reduce peak discharge by up to 7%, 14%, and 15% and reduce flood volume by up to 19%, 24%, and 29%, respectively, thereby presenting a promising solution to address the challenges posed by climate change-induced flooding events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rainfall-runoff simulation is vital for planning and controlling flood control events. Hydrology modeling using Hydrological Engineering Center—Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) is accepted globally for event-based or continuous simulation of the rainfall-runoff operation. Similarly, machine learning is a fast-growing discipline that offers numerous alternatives suitable for hydrology research's high demands and limitations. Conventional and process-based models such as HEC-HMS are typically created at specific spatiotemporal scales and do not easily fit the diversified and complex input parameters. Therefore, in this research, the effectiveness of Random Forest, a machine learning model, was compared with HEC-HMS for the rainfall-runoff process. Furthermore, we also performed a hydraulic simulation in Hydrological Engineering Center—Geospatial River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) using the input discharge obtained from the Random Forest model. The reliability of the Random Forest model and the HEC-HMS model was evaluated using different statistical indexes. The coefficient of determination (R2), standard deviation ratio (RSR), and normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) were 0.94, 0.23, and 0.17 for the training data and 0.72, 0.56, and 0.26 for the testing data, respectively, for the Random Forest model. Similarly, the R2, RSR, and NRMSE were 0.99, 0.16, and 0.06 for the calibration period and 0.96, 0.35, and 0.10 for the validation period, respectively, for the HEC-HMS model. The Random Forest model slightly underestimated peak discharge values, whereas the HEC-HMS model slightly overestimated the peak discharge value. Statistical index values illustrated the good performance of the Random Forest and HEC-HMS models, which revealed the suitability of both models for hydrology analysis. In addition, the flood depth generated by HEC-RAS using the Random Forest predicted discharge underestimated the flood depth during the peak flooding event. This result proves that HEC-HMS could compensate Random Forest for the peak discharge and flood depth during extreme events. In conclusion, the integrated machine learning and physical-based model can provide more confidence in rainfall-runoff and flood depth prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In purchase situations where attribute information is either missing or difficult to judge, a well-known heuristic that consumers use to form evaluations is the halo effect. The psychology literature has widely considered the halo a reflection of consumers' inability to discriminate between different attributes and have therefore labeled it the 'halo error' or the 'logical error.' The objective of this paper is to offer a rationale for the halo effect. We use a decision-theory framework to show that the halo is consistent with the goal of minimizing estimation risk. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that a decision using the halo has lower estimation risk compared to not using the halo heuristic. Therefore, using the halo results in utility maximization and is indicative of rational behavior. Key words: halo effect; decision-theoretic consumer choice; James-Stein estimator; utility preference, 1. Introduction In some purchase scenarios, some product attribute information may be missing or may be difficult to evaluate objectively. Examples of these situations include products or services that have [...]