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Little has contributed more to the emergence of today's world of financial globalization than the setup of the international monetary system. In its current shape, it has a hierarchical structure with the US-Dollar (USD) at the top and various other monetary areas forming a multilayered periphery to it. A key feature of the system is the creation of USD offshore – a feature that in the 1950s and 60s developed in co-evolution with the Bretton Woods System and in the 1970s replaced it. Since the 2007–9 Financial Crisis, this ‘Offshore US-Dollar System’ has been backstopped by the Federal Reserve's network of swap lines which are extended to other key central banks. This systemic evolution may continue in the decades to come, but other systemic arrangements are possible as well and have historical precedents. This article discusses four trajectories that would lead to different setups of the international monetary system by 2040, taking into account how its hierarchical structure and the role of offshore credit money creation may evolve. In addition to a continuation of USD hegemony, we present the emergence of competing monetary blocs, the formation of an international monetary federation and the disintegration into an international monetary anarchy.

IASS Discussion Paper, In order to sketch the possibility space for the future setup of the International Monetary System (IMS), this paper develops four different scenarios that outline potential outcomes of the IMS’s evolution by 2040. These scenarios derive from the analytical exercise of adopting a Money View perspective of today’s institutional shape of the IMS. The paper argues that the IMS’s current setup crucially relies on the supply of US Dollar-denominated credit money forms issued by private and public institutions outside the United States—through Eurodollar deposits, central bank swaps as well as ‘shadow money forms’ created by non-banks such as overnight repurchase agreements, money market fund shares and foreign exchange swaps. As this ‘realm’ of offshore dollar creation forms the heart of the present IMS, the four scenarios project potential institutional developments in coming decades following different trajectories. The Continued Dollar Hegemony scenario depicts the sustained dominance of private international money creation via offshore dollars within the Pax Americana. The Competing Monetary Blocs scenario envisions the US, the EU, and China as three gravitational centers with private international money creation in the blocs’ peripheries via offshore dollars, offshore euros and offshore renminbi. In the International Monetary Federation scenario, countries have created a strong publicly organized IMS, comprising a multilateral framework of one international and several regional clearing unions, based upon Keynes’ ideas for an International Clearing Union. Finally, the International Monetary Anarchy scenario entails the post-crisis emergence of a non-system with a substantial breakdown of public and private international monetary cooperation and creation.