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The scientific community is deeply concerned about the ongoing discussions on the EU’s Green Deal. Of particular concern are the current criticisms targeting the Sustainable Use Regulation (SUR) and Nature Restoration Law (NRL). We urge policy makers to continue the legislative procedure for the SUR and the NRL, and invite opponents of the Green Deal for a consultation with scientists. The call was led by 17 scientists and signed by 3,339 scientists across EU Member States and 17 additional countries.

Aim It is widely accepted that biodiversity is influenced by both niche‐related and spatial processes from local to global scales. Their relative importance, however, is still disputed, and empirical tests are surprisingly scarce at the global scale. Here, we compare the importance of area (as a proxy for pure spatial processes) and environmental heterogeneity (as a proxy for niche‐related processes) for predicting native mammal species richness world‐wide and within biogeographical regions. Location Global. Time period We analyse a spatial snapshot of richness data collated by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. Major taxa studied All terrestrial mammal species, including possibly extinct species and species with uncertain presence. Methods We applied a spreading dye algorithm to analyse how native mammal species richness changes with area and environmental heterogeneity. As measures for environmental heterogeneity, we used elevation ranges and precipitation ranges, which are well‐known correlates of species richness. Results We found that environmental heterogeneity explained species richness relationships better than did area, suggesting that niche‐related processes are more prevalent than pure area effects at broad scales. Main conclusions Our results imply that niche‐related processes are essential to understand broad‐scale species–area relationships and that habitat diversity is more important than area alone for the protection of global biodiversity.

Review 1. Abandonment of agricultural land is widespread in many parts of the world, leading to shrub and tree encroachment. The increase of flammable plant biomass, that is, fuel load, increases the risk and intensity of wildfires. Fuel reduction by herbivores is a promising management strategy to avoid fuel build-up and mitigate wildfires. However, their effectiveness in mitigating wildfire damage may depend on a range of factors, including herbivore type, population density and feeding patterns. 2. Here, we review the evidence on whether management with herbivores can reduce fuel load and mitigate wildfires, and if so, how to identify suitable management that can achieve fire mitigation objectives while providing other ecosystem services. We systematically reviewed studies that investigated links between herbivores, fire hazard, fire frequency and fire damage. 3. We found that, in general, herbivores reduce fuel load most effectively when they are mixed feeders, when grazing and browsing herbivores are combined and when herbivore food preferences match the local vegetation. In some cases, the combination of herbivory with other management strategies, such as mechanical clearing, is necessary to reduce wildfire damage. 4. Synthesis and Applications. We conclude that herbivores have the capacity to mitigate wildfire damage, and we provide guidance for grazing management for wildfire mitigation strategies. As areas undergoing land abandonment are particularly prone to wildfires, the maintenance or promotion of grazing by domestic or wild herbivores is a promising tool to reduce wildfire risk in a cost-effective way, while also providing other ecosystem services. Relevant land-use policies, including fire suppression policies, agricultural and forest(ry) policies could incentivise the use of herbivores for better wildfire prevention. info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

In this issue of One Earth, Scown et al. assess the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy’s payment distributions. Their findings indicate strong biases, requiring the EU to address payment inequality among farmers and to target subsidies specifically toward reversing environmental degradation, decarbonizing agriculture, and halting biodiversity losses.

Insects are the most ubiquitous and diverse group of eukaryotic organisms on Earth, forming a crucial link in terrestrial and freshwater food webs. They have recently become the subject of headlines because of observations of dramatic declines in some places. Although there are hundreds of long-term insect monitoring programs, a global database for long-term data on insect assemblages has so far remained unavailable. In order to facilitate synthetic analyses of insect abundance changes, we compiled a database of long-term (≥10 yr) studies of assemblages of insects (many also including arachnids) in the terrestrial and freshwater realms. We searched the scientific literature and public repositories for data on insect and arachnid monitoring using standardized protocols over a time span of 10 yr or longer, with at least two sampling events. We focused on studies that presented or allowed calculation of total community abundance or biomass. We extracted data from tables, figures, and appendices, and, for data sets that provided raw data, we standardized trapping effort over space and time when necessary. For each site, we extracted provenance details (such as country, state, and continent) as well as information on protection status, land use, and climatic details from publicly available GIS sources. In all, the database contains 1,668 plot-level time series sourced from 165 studies with samples collected between 1925 and 2018. Sixteen data sets provided here were previously unpublished. Studies were separated into those collected in the terrestrial realm (103 studies with a total of 1,053 plots) and those collected in the freshwater realm (62 studies with 615 plots). Most studies were from Europe (48%) and North America (29%), with 34% of the plots located in protected areas. The median monitoring time span was 19 yr, with 12 sampling years. The number of individuals was reported in 129 studies, the total biomass was reported in 13 studies, and both abundance and biomass were reported in 23 studies. This data set is published under a CC-BY license, requiring attribution of the data source. Please cite this paper if the data are used in publications, and respect the licenses of the original sources when using (part of) their data as detailed in Metadata S1: Table 1.

Butterfly Monitoring Schemes (BMSs) engage the public in conservation and provide data sets that cover broad geographical areas over long timescales. Most existing BMSs are in temperate climates; however, the Israeli Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS-IL), established in 2009, is a notable exception as it encompasses a large climatic gradient from Euro-Siberian through Mediterranean to hyper-arid regions. Israel's climate poses challenges in analyzing data from year-round butterfly activity, as in other tropical or arid countries. The Regional Generalized Additive Model (Regional GAM) is a butterfly phenology and abundance model based on repeat visits throughout species' flight season. We tested the applicability of Regional GAM for species with complex flight seasonality (e.g., multivoltine) by comparing estimated abundance and seasonal indices for the full data set and rarefied subsets. We assessed the reliability of modeled flight seasons and compared abundance estimates per site resulting from biologically plausible and unreliable seasonal models. The reliability of Regional GAM rises with the number of observations, and the model tends to produce more biologically plausible models for species with simple phenologies (e.g., univoltine with a single peak in activity). Abundance estimates based on unreliable models produce values with inter-quartile ranges of 90%-153% compared with biologically plausible models, while peak time changes with an interquartile range of 0-22.5 d when comparing all rarefied models with the full data set. Regional GAM should be applied with great caution for rare species and those with a complex flight season, and the date of year start needs to be carefully chosen for species that are active year-round. We identified the key sources of error and propose an operational workflow to address them. With few adaptations, Regional GAM can support new BMSs in analyzing data where butterflies are active year-round, including tropical climates. We propose guidelines for analyzing BMS data for species or regions with long activity periods and complex phenologies.

The European Union's Natura 2000 (N2000) is among the largest international networks of protected areas. One of its aims is to secure the status of a predetermined set of (targeted) bird and butterfly species. However, nontarget species may also benefit from N2000. We evaluated how the terrestrial component of this network affects the abundance of nontargeted, more common bird and butterfly species based on data from long-term volunteer-based monitoring programs in 9602 sites for birds and 2001 sites for butterflies. In almost half of the 155 bird species assessed, and particularly among woodland specialists, abundance increased (slope estimates ranged from 0.101 [SD 0.042] to 3.51 [SD 1.30]) as the proportion of landscape covered by N2000 sites increased. This positive relationship existed for 27 of the 104 butterfly species (estimates ranged from 0.382 [SD 0.163] to 4.28 [SD 0.768]), although most butterflies were generalists. For most species, when land-cover covariates were accounted for these positive relationships were not evident, meaning land cover may be a determinant of positive effects of the N2000 network. The increase in abundance as N2000 coverage increased correlated with the specialization index for birds, but not for butterflies. Although the N2000 network supports high abundance of a large spectrum of species, the low number of specialist butterflies with a positive association with the N2000 network shows the need to improve the habitat quality of N2000 sites that could harbor open-land butterfly specialists. For a better understanding of the processes involved, we advocate for standardized collection of data at N2000 sites.Efectos de Natura 2000 sobre las Especies No Focales de Aves y Mariposas con Base en Datos de Ciencia Ciudadana Resumen La red Natura 2000 (N2000) de la Unión Europea está entre las redes internacionales más grandes de áreas protegidas. Uno de sus objetivos es asegurar el estado de un conjunto predeterminado de especies de aves y mariposas (focales). Sin embargo, las especies no focales también pueden beneficiarse con la N2000. Evaluamos cómo el componente terrestre de esta red afecta la abundancia de las especies de aves y mariposas no focales más comunes con base en los datos de programas de monitoreo voluntario a largo plazo en 9,602 sitios para aves y en 2,001 sitios para mariposas. En casi la mitad de las 155 especies de aves evaluadas, particularmente entre aquellas especies especialistas en zonas boscosas, la abundancia incrementó (los estimaciones de la pendiente variaron desde 0.101 [DS 0.042] hasta 3.51 [DS 1.30]) conforme incrementó la proporción del paisaje cubierto por sitios de la N2000. Esta relación positiva existió en 27 de las 104 especies de mariposas (con una variación de estimaciones desde 0.382 [DS 0.163] hasta 4.28 [DS 0.768]), aunque la mayoría de las especies de mariposas fueron generalistas. Cuando se consideraron las covarianzas de cobertura de suelo estas relaciones positivas no fueron evidentes para la mayoría de las especies, lo que significa que la cobertura de suelo puede ser una determinante de los efectos positivos de la red N2000. El incremento en la abundancia conforme aumentó la cobertura de la N2000 estuvo correlacionado con el índice de especialización de las aves, pero no el de las mariposas. Aunque la red N2000 sostiene la abundancia alta de un espectro amplio de especies, el bajo número de mariposas especialistas con una asociación positiva a la red N2000 demuestra la necesidad de mejorar la calidad del hábitat de los sitios N2000 que podrían albergar a mariposas especialistas de campo abierto. Para un mejor entendimiento de los procesos involucrados, promovemos una recolección estandarizada de datos en los sitios de la red N2000.欧盟的 Natura 2000(N2000) 是全球最大的保护地网络之一, 它的目标之一是保护一批目标鸟类和蝴蝶物种的现状。不过, 非目标物种也可能从 N2000 中获益。本研究评估了该网络陆地保护区如何影响更为常见的非目标鸟类和蝴蝶的丰度, 所用数据来自长期的志愿者监测项目, 包括了 9602 个鸟类监测点和 2001 个蝴蝶监测点。在评估的 155 种鸟类中, 几乎一半的鸟类, 特别是林地专性种, 在 N2000 位点覆盖的景观比例上升时数量增加 (斜率估计值在 0.101 [SD 0.042] 到3.51 [SD 1.30] 之间) 。虽然大多数蝴蝶都是广幅种, 但 104 种蝴蝶中也有 27 种存在这种正相关关系 (斜率估计值在 0.382 [SD 0.163] 到 4.28 [SD 0.768]) 。对于大多数物种来说, 当考虑土地覆盖协变量时, 这样的正相关关系并不明显, 这意味着土地覆盖可能是 N2000 网络能否对物种产生积极影响的关键因素。物种的丰度随着 N2000 覆盖度增加而增加的现象与鸟类的生境特化指数相关, 而在蝴蝶中则无关。虽然 N2000 网络使许多物种得以维持较高丰度, 但获得其积极影响的蝴蝶专性种数量仍较少, 这说明需要在 N2000 网络中提高专性生活在开阔地的蝴蝶的生境质量。为了更好地理解其中的过程, 我们建议收集更多标准化的 N2000 位点数据。 【翻译: 胡怡思; 审校: 聂永刚】.

The effects of habitat loss on the distribution of populations are often linked with species specialization degree. Specialist species can be more affected by changes in landscape structure and local patch characteristics compared to generalist species. Moreover, the spatial scale at which different land covers (eg. habitat, cropland, urban areas) affect specialist species can be smaller. Specialization is usually assumed as a constant trait along the distribution range of species. However, for several taxa, there is evidence of higher specialization degree in peripheral populations compared with populations in the core. Hence, peripheral populations should have a higher sensitivity to habitat loss, and strongest effects should be found at a smaller spatial scale. To test these expectations, we implemented a patch-landscape approach at different spatial scales, and compared effects of landscape structure and patch characteristics on occupancy probability among northern peripheral, more specialized populations (Czech Republic) and core populations (Bulgaria) of the eastern green lizard Lacerta viridis. We found that landscape structure and patch characteristics affect differently the occupancy probability of Lacerta viridis in each region. Strongest effects of habitat loss were found at a spatial scale of 150m around patches in the periphery, but at a scale of 500m in the core. In the periphery occupancy probability of populations was principally affected by landscape composition, and the effect of habitat quality was stronger compared to core populations. In the core, persistence of populations was mainly explained by characteristics of the spatial configuration of habitat patches. We discuss possible ecological mechanisms behind the relationship between sensitivity to habitat loss, populations' specialization degree and position in the distribution range, and suggest conservation measures for L. viridis.

The available range of habitats and suitable abiotic conditions like temperature and radiation tends to be narrower toward the periphery of the distribution range of species. Peripheral populations of generalist species could then be more specialized and have a smaller and differentiated realized niche (habitat niche in our study) compared to populations at the core. Likewise, patterns of microhabitat selection can differ between periphery and core. In our study, we compared niche size and microhabitat selection among core (Bulgaria) and northern peripheral (Germany, Czech Republic) populations of Lacerta viridis and estimated niche differentiation among regions. We collected data on vegetation structure and abiotic parameters at the microhabitat scale in each region. In order to compare niche size among regions and estimate niche differentiation, we built multidimensional niche hypervolumes. We applied generalized linear mixed models and model averaging, accounting for spatial autocorrelation when necessary, to analyze microhabitat differences among regions and microhabitat selection in each region. Peripheral populations were more specialized, having a smaller niche than core ones, and their niche differed from that in the core (Sorensen overlap in all comparisons

Habitat destruction and fragmentation alter the quality of habitats and put populations under the risk of extinction. Changes in population parameters can provide early warning signs of negative impacts. In tropical forests, where habitat loss and fragmentation are vast, such indicators are of high relevance for directing conservation efforts before effects are irreversible. Most of our knowledge from tropical ecosystems originates from community level surveys, whereas our understanding of the influence of habitat conversion on vital rates of species is limited. This study focused on the influence of anthropogenic habitat fragmentation on the survival probability and abundance of three leaf-litter frog species (Rhinellaornata, Ischnocnemaguentheri and I.parva) in forest patches of the Atlantic rainforest of South-east Brazil compared to a continuous forest. The species differ in their matrix tolerance: high for R.ornata and low for I.guentheri and I.parva and, thus, we examined whether their survival and abundance correspond to this classification. Ischnocnemaguentheri showed highest abundances in all study sites and low mortality in the forest patches compared to the continuous forest; I.parva was encountered only in isolated fragments, with very low mortality in one isolated fragment; and the matrix tolerant species had generally low abundance and showed no clear pattern in terms of mortality in the different sites. Our counter-intuitive results show that even matrix sensitive amphibian species may show high abundance and low mortality in small forest patches. Therefore, these patches can be of high value for amphibian conservation regardless of their degree of matrix aversion. Landscape level conservation planning should not abandon small habitat patches, especially in highly fragmented tropical environments.

The design and successful performance of citizen science-based monitoring require an understanding of the motivation and the needs of participants. Herem we use a questionnaire to assess intrinsic and extrinsic motivations and investigate in links between project support service and motivations in 181 participants taking part in three insect-focused citizen science projects in Denmark, Germany and Israel. Across all three countries, main intrinsic motivation for participating in the projects were “to have fun” and to “do something (good) for nature”. Equally important across all countries were extrinsic motivations such as “contribute to science” and “contribute to nature conservation”. Interestingly, differences in the projects (country or program-type) were more strongly related to respondent's motivation than demographic variables such as age and gender. Linking project support services to participants' intrinsic and extrinsic motivations revealed that the intrinsic motivation of “feeling a part of the community” as well as the extrinsic motivation “learning” and the service to provide “training on insect identification” were positively related. Interestingly, the support service of “monetary incentives” was negatively related with the motivation to “conserve species generally” and “conserve insects specifically”. We conclude, that early identification of the citizen scientists' motivation and the assessment of how motivations may change over time are important to foster successful and sustainable citizen science monitoring programs. International networks of (potentially similar) biodiversity monitoring schemes should consider differences in cultural background and citizen scientist's requirements, and accordingly tailor the projects designs to activate, train, and support participants according to their needs.

Ecological Focus Areas (EFAs) have recently been introduced as key element in the greening of the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy. In 2015, farmers across the EU have implemented EFAs for the first time. Data for German federal states indicate a strong variance in EFA decisions with an overall dominance of catch crops, nitrogen fixing crops and fallow land – two of which bear limited benefits for biodiversity conservation. This article explores how experts explain EFA choices. We conducted 35 qualitative, semi-structured interviews with representatives from the Ministry for Agriculture, farm advisory services, and farmers’ associations in each federal state. Applying content analysis we clustered the factors mentioned as determinants for farmers’ EFA choices into the categories administrative considerations, economic considerations, local factors, ecosystem considerations and policy incentives. According to the interviewed experts, farmers have primarily registered measures that already existed on their farms. Administrative considerations dominate the identified determinants for farmers’ EFA decisions, and together with economic considerations appear to function as a negative incentive for EFA options that are beneficial for biodiversity, such as landscape elements and buffer strips. We conclude that conditions for EFA implementation were found to not effectively incentivise a higher share of biodiversity supporting characteristics in German agricultural landscapes. Based on a detailed discussion we extract recommendations on how to improve EFA implementation.

Aim: Due to intrinsic differences in the sensitivity to habitat grain among species, studies performed at different extent are necessary to understand the consequences of forest loss and fragmentation. Using a large database, we explored the responses of birds to changes in forest cover and the role of habitat specialization in the strength of this response. Location: Southern Atlantic forest of Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. Methods: We used data on bird occurrences recorded in 1,384 point counts (2004?2011), estimated forest cover and number of forest fragments in two radii (60 and 960 m), centred at each point count. For each bird species, we extracted the geographical and altitudinal range as two indirect measures of habitat specialization. We used general linear model and Akaike information criterion to explore the influence of the type of habitat, the amount of habitat and fragmentation pattern on the probability of species occurrence and the influence of habitat specialization on the strength of response. Results: Of the 28 species analysed, 15 (55%) responded either to forest loss or the number of fragments, either positively or negatively. In these 15 species, the probability of occurrence of 67% was better explained by a specific extent (either 60 or 960 m). The strength of the response to forest loss decreased with both the geographical and the altitudinal range of species. Main conclusions: Our study shows that a large proportion of species responded to forest loss at a specific extent and that the magnitude of the response is related to species specialization. A single-extent approach to multispecies studies may not be enough to preserve the whole community due to differences in sensitivity to habitat grain. Maintaining forest cover at multiple extents and managing anthropogenic habitats to increase their suitability for native species are essential to preserve communities in highly fragmented landscapes such as the Atlantic forest. Fil: Zurita, Gustavo Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú | Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú; Argentina Fil: Pe'er, G.. Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research. Department of Conservation Biology; Alemania Fil: Bellocq, Maria Isabel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Ciudad Universitaria. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires. Universidad de Buenos Aires. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Instituto de Ecología, Genética y Evolución de Buenos Aires; Argentina

Ecological Focus Areas (EFAs) are one of the three new greening measures of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). We used an interdisciplinary and European-scale approach to evaluate ecological effectiveness and farmers‟ perception of the different EFA options. We assessed potential benefits of EFA options for biodiversity using a survey among 88 ecologists from 17 European countries. We further analyzed data on EFA uptake at the EU level and in eight EU Member States, and reviewed socio-economic factors influencing farmers‟ decisions. We then identified possible ways to improve EFAs. Ecologists scored field margins, buffer strips, fallow land, and landscape features as most beneficial whereas farmers mostly implemented „catch crops and green cover‟, nitrogen-fixing crops, and fallow land. Based on the expert inputs and a review of the factors influencing farmers‟ decisions, we suggest that EFA implementation could be improved by a) prioritizing EFA options that promote biodiversity (e.g. reducing the weight or even excluding ineffective options); b) reducing administrative constraints; c) setting stricter management requirements (e.g. limiting agrochemical use); and d) offering further incentives for expanding options like landscape features and buffer strips. We finally propose further improvements at the next CAP reform, to improve ecological effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

Dispersal is crucial for population viability and thus a popular target for conservation measures. However, the ability of individuals to move between habitat patches is notoriously difficult to estimate. One solution is to quantify functional connectivity via realistic individual-based movement models. Such simulation models, however, are difficult to build and even more difficult to parameterize. Here, we use the example of natal little owl (Athene noctua) dispersal to develop a new analysis chain for the calibration of individual-based dispersal models using a hybrid of statistical parameter estimation and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Specifically, we use locations of 126 radio-tracked juveniles to first estimate habitat utilization by generalized additive models (GAMs) and the biased random bridges (BRB) method. We then include the estimated parameters in a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) of little owl dispersal and calibrate further movement parameters using ABC. To derive efficient summary statistics, we use a new dimension reduction method based on random forest (RF) regression. Finally, we use the calibrated IBM to predict the dispersal potential of little owls from local populations in southwestern Germany to suitable habitat patches in northern Switzerland. We show that pre-calibrating habitat preference parameters while inferring movement behavioral parameters via ABC is a computationally efficient solution to obtain a plausible IBM parameterization. We also find that dimension reduction via RF regression outperforms the widely used least squares regression, which we applied as a benchmark approach. Estimated movement parameters for the individuals reveal plausible inter-individual and inter-sexual differences in movement behavior during natal dispersal. In agreement with a sex-biased dispersal distance in little owls, females show longer individual flights and higher directional persistence. Simulations from the fitted model indicate that a (re)colonization of northern Switzerland is generally possible, albeit restricted. We conclude that the presented analysis chain is a sensible work-flow to assess dispersal connectivity across species and ecosystems. It embraces species- and individual-specific behavioral responses to the landscape and allows likelihood-based calibration, despite an irregular sampling design. Our study highlights existing, yet narrow dispersal corridors, which may require enhancements to facilitate a recolonization of little owl habitat patches in northern Switzerland.

Rewilding has been both promoted and criticized in recent years. Benefits include flexibility to react to environmental change and the promotion of opportunities for society to re-connect with nature. Criticisms include the lack of a clear conceptualization of rewilding,insufficient knowledge about the possible outcomes, and the perception that rewilding excludes people from landscapes. Here, we present a framework for rewilding that addresses thesecriticisms. We suggest rewilding should target trophic complexity, natural disturbances, and dispersal, as interacting ecosystem processes that can improve ecosystem resilience and maintain biodiversity. We propose a structured approach to rewilding projects that include assessment of the contributions of nature to people and the social-ecological constraints on restoration., Portuguese Science and Technology Foundation -FCT, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation.

Environmental change is expected to shift the geographic range of species and communities. To estimate the consequences of these shifts for the functioning and stability of ecosystems, reliable predictions of alterations in species distributions are needed. Projections with correlative species distribution models, which correlate species’ distributions to the abiotic environment, have become a standard approach. Criticism of this approach centres around the omission of relevant biotic feedbacks and triggered the search for alternatives. A new generation of mechanistic process-based species distribution models aims at implementing formulations of relevant biotic processes to cover species’ life histories, physiology, dispersal abilities, evolution, and both intra- and interspecific interactions. Although this step towards more structural realism is considered important, it remains unclear whether the resulting projections are more reliable. Structural realism has the advantage that geographic range shifting emerges from the interplay of relevant abiotic and biotic processes. Having implemented the relevant response mechanisms, structural realistic models should better tackle the challenge of generating projections of species responses to (non-analogous) environmental change. However, reliable projections of future species ranges demand ecological information that is currently only available for few species. In this opinion paper, we discuss how the discrepancy between demand for structural realism on the one hand and the related knowledge gaps on the other hand affects the reliability of mechanistic species distribution models. We argue that omission of relevant processes potentially impairs projection accuracy (proximity of the mean outcome to the true value), particularly if species range shifts emerge from species and community dynamics. Yet, insufficient knowledge that limits model specification and parameterization, as well as process complexity, increases projection uncertainty (variance in the outcome of simulated model projections). The accuracy–uncertainty-relation reflects current limits to delivering reliable projections of range shifts. We propose a protocol to improve and communicate projection reliability. The protocol combines modelling and empirical research to efficiently fill critical knowledge gaps that currently limit the reliability of species and community projections.

We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI). Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

We explored how presence data and expert opinions performed with respect to identifying the ecological preferences and the spatial needs of six butterfly species in the Federal State of Saxony, Germany. We used presence records and a land-cover map. In parallel we used expert responses to evaluate the 40 land-cover types occurring in the map, in terms of both suitability and permeability for the six species. Presence data were translated into preferences through Ivlev’s electivity indices (IEI). Visual analysis of preference maps based on IEI showed a distinct pattern of suitable versus less suitable areas. Similarly, spatial analyses found that presence-points were closer to suitability areas based on IEI than those that were based on expert data. However, in case of mismatches between expert and presence-based evaluations, independent experts identified the expert evaluation as better and considered IEI outcomes as wrong. We found a medium to high correlation between land-cover class suitability and permeability based on expert opinions for all species. This indicates that expert evaluation of permeability is affiliated with habitat suitability. Integration of species-presence data and expert-knowledge about species could enhance our capabilities to understand and potentially map suitability while gathering information about suitability and permeability separately can improve species conservation planning.

International audience; Obtaining an accurate quantification of population size is often of prime importance in ecology and conservation biology (e.g. population viability analysis, a basic step for assessing species and population status in a given area and guiding effective conservation). When obtaining a reliable quantification of absolute (vs. relative) population size is required, Mark–Release–Recapture (MRR) is a method of choice for many organisms. This is a highly reliable but costly procedure in terms of time and potential impact on species and sites. Consequently, less costly alternatives are highly desirable for conservation and population ecologists.We present here a simplified MRR protocol to mitigate this cost of repeated MRR sampling with little compromise on the quality of the population size estimation. Using one of the largest existing butterfly MRR databases, collected on two fritillary species over a period of 20 years and >20 populations in Belgium, we assessed the possibility to reduce the effort of collecting MRR data while keeping accurate quantification of total population size. By downsampling from the full datasets and calculating a range of demographic census metrics, we specifically investigated whether marking individuals is necessary, and whether the number of sampling sessions can be reduced.We found that counting individuals is not enough: some individual marking, even in a simplistic way to differentiate newly recorded from previously seen individuals, is essential for estimating population size. A simple linear conversion function (number of “missed” individuals for each marked one) can be used to compute population size from the number of individuals marked over a small number of MRR sampling sessions. Parameterizing this function is system specific, because it depends on detectability of individuals, but only requires an initial effort of traditional high‐effort MRR in a few populations encompassing the expected range of population size, combined with previous knowledge on the species about potential factors affecting detectability.Our simplified MRR protocol should allow scientists to obtain absolute population size estimates almost as good as with traditional high‐effort MRR, but at a cost lowered in both the marking procedure and the intensity of field visits.

Tropical bird assemblages display patterns of high alpha and beta diversity and, as tropical birds exhibit strong habitat specificity, their spatial distributions are generally assumed to be driven primarily by environmental heterogeneity and interspecific interactions. However, spatial distributions of some Amazonian forest birds are also often restricted by large rivers and other large-scale topographic features, suggesting that dispersal limitation may also play a role in driving species' turnover. In this study, we evaluated the effects of environmental characteristics, topographic and spatial variables on variation in local assemblage structure and diversity of birds in an old-growth forest in central Amazonia. Birds were mist-netted in 72 plots distributed systematically across a 10,000 ha reserve in each of three years. Alpha diversity remained stable through time, but species composition changed. Spatial variation in bird-assemblage structure was significantly related to environmental and topographic variables but not strongly related to spatial variables. At a broad scale, we found bird assemblages to be significantly distinct between two watersheds that are divided by a central ridgeline. We did not detect an effect of the ridgeline per se in driving these patterns, indicating that most birds are able to fly across it, and that differences in assemblage structure between watersheds may be due to unmeasured environmental variables or unique combinations of measured variables. Our study indicates that complex geography and landscape features can act together with environmental variables to drive changes in the diversity and composition of tropical bird assemblages at local scales, but highlights that we still know very little about what makes different parts of tropical forest suitable for different species. © 2017 Menger et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

There are many techniques to deal with uncertainty when modeling data. However, there are many forms of uncertainty that cannot be dealt with mathematically that have to be taken into account when designing a biodiversity monitoring system. Some of these can be minimized by careful planning and quality control, but others have to be investigated during monitoring, and the scale and methods adjusted when necessary to meet objectives. Sources of uncertainty include uncertainty about stakeholders, who will monitor, what to sample, where to sample, causal relationships, species identifications, detectability, distributions, relationships with remote sensing, biotic concordance, complementarity, validity of stratification, and data quality and management. Failure to take into account any of these sources of uncertainty about how the data will be used can make monitoring nothing more than monitoring for the sake of monitoring, and I make recommendations as to how to reduce uncertainties. Some form of standardization is necessary, despite the multiple sources of uncertainty, and experience from RAPELD and other monitoring schemes indicates that spatial standardization is viable and helps reduce many sources of uncertainty. Copyright William E Magnusson.

The ecological literature deals with uncertainty primarily from the perspective of how to reduce it to acceptable levels. However, the current rapid and ubiquitous environmental changes, as well as anticipated rates of change, pose novel conditions and complex dynamics due to which many sources of uncertainty are difficult or even impossible to reduce. These include both uncertainty in knowledge (epistemic uncertainty) and societal responses to it. Under these conditions, an increasing number of studies ask how one can deal with uncertainty as it is. Here, we explore the question how to adopt an overall alternative attitude to uncertainty, which accepts or even embraces it. First, we show that seeking to reduce uncertainty may be counterproductive under some circumstances. It may yield overconfidence, ignoring early warning signs, policy- and societal stagnation, or irresponsible behaviour if personal certainty is offered by externalization of environmental costs. We then demonstrate that uncertainty can have positive impacts by driving improvements in knowledge, promoting cautious action, contributing to keeping societies flexible and adaptable, enhancing awareness, support and involvement of the public in nature conservation, and enhancing cooperation and communication. We discuss the risks of employing a certainty paradigm on uncertain knowledge, the potential benefits of adopting an alternative attitude to uncertainty, and the need to implement such an attitude across scales – from adaptive management at the local scale, to the evolving Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) at the global level. peerReviewed

Summary Rapid environmental changes are threatening biodiversity and exposing species to novel ecological and evolutionary pressures. The scientific community increasingly recognizes the need for dynamic models integrating sufficient complexity both to improve our understanding of species' responses to environmental changes and to inform effective management strategies. Using three illustrative examples, we introduce a novel modelling platform, RangeShifter, which integrates complex population dynamics and dispersal behaviour, includes plastic and evolutionary processes and simulates scenarios on spatially explicit landscapes. The software provides functionality for a wide variety of modelling applications ranging from applied questions, where it can be parameterized for real landscapes and species to compare alternative potential management interventions, to purely theoretical studies of species' eco-evolutionary dynamics and responses to different environmental pressures. RangeShifter provides an important tool for facilitating the advancement of ecological theory on species' spatial dynamics in response to environmental changes, and linking it directly to application in biodiversity conservation.

Dispersal is crucial for population viability and thus a popular target for conservation measures. However, the ability of individuals to move between habitat patches is notoriously difficult to estimate. One solution is to quantify functional connectivity via realistic individual-based movement models. Such simulation models, however, are difficult to build and even more difficult to parameterize. Here, we use the example of natal little owl (Athene noctua) dispersal to develop a new analysis chain for the calibration of individual-based dispersal models using a hybrid of statistical parameter estimation and Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). Specifically, we use locations of 126 radio-tracked juveniles to first estimate habitat utilization by generalized additive models (GAMs) and the biased random bridges (BRB) method. We then include the estimated parameters in a spatially explicit individual-based model (IBM) of little owl dispersal and calibrate further movement parameters using ABC. To derive efficient summary statistics, we use a new dimension reduction method based on random forest (RF) regression. Finally, we use the calibrated IBM to predict the dispersal potential of little owls from local populations in southwestern Germany to suitable habitat patches in northern Switzerland. We show that pre-calibrating habitat preference parameters while inferring movement behavioral parameters via ABC is a computationally efficient solution to obtain a plausible IBM parameterization. We also find that dimension reduction via RF regression outperforms the widely used least squares regression, which we applied as a benchmark approach. Estimated movement parameters for the individuals reveal plausible inter-individual and inter-sexual differences in movement behavior during natal dispersal. In agreement with a sex-biased dispersal distance in little owls, females show longer individual flights and higher directional persistence. Simulations from the fitted model indicate that a (re)colonization of northern Switzerland is generally possible, albeit restricted. We conclude that the presented analysis chain is a sensible work-flow to assess dispersal connectivity across species and ecosystems. It embraces species- and individual-specific behavioral responses to the landscape and allows likelihood-based calibration, despite an irregular sampling design. Our study highlights existing, yet narrow dispersal corridors, which may require enhancements to facilitate a recolonization of little owl habitat patches in northern Switzerland.

Population viability analyses (PVAs) contribute to conservation theory, policy, and management. Most PVAs focus on single species within a given landscape and address a specific problem. This specificity often is reflected in the organization of published PVA descriptions. Many lack structure, making them difficult to understand, assess, repeat, or use for drawing generalizations across PVA studies. In an assessment comparing published PVAs and existing guidelines, we found that model selection was rarely justified; important parameters remained neglected or their implementation was described vaguely; limited details were given on parameter ranges, sensitivity analysis, and scenarios; and results were often reported too inconsistently to enable repeatability and comparability. Although many guidelines exist on how to design and implement reliable PVAs and standards exist for documenting and communicating ecological models in general, there is a lack of organized guidelines for designing, applying, and communicating PVAs that account for their diversity of structures and contents. To fill this gap, we integrated published guidelines and recommendations for PVA design and application, protocols for documenting ecological models in general and individual-based models in particular, and our collective experience in developing, applying, and reviewing PVAs. We devised a comprehensive protocol for the design, application, and communication of PVAs (DAC-PVA), which has 3 primary elements. The first defines what a useful PVA is; the second element provides a workflow for the design and application of a useful PVA and highlights important aspects that need to be considered during these processes; and the third element focuses on communication of PVAs to ensure clarity, comprehensiveness, repeatability, and comparability. Thereby, DAC-PVA should strengthen the credibility and relevance of PVAs for policy and management, and improve the capacity to generalize PVA findings across studies.

Trends and status of species and habitats need to be measured to assess whether global biodiversity policy targets have been achieved. However, it is impossible to monitor all species and habitats with a justifiable effort. Therefore, it is critical to prioritize the monitoring of specific biodiversity components. Priorities must be linked to key nature conservation policies to ensure that monitoring efforts are relevant to policy needs, achieve maximum impact, and obtain governmental support. Here we discuss priority setting in biodiversity monitoring in view of monitoring obligations and priorities in supranational biodiversity legislation and policies in Europe and assess overlaps in priorities among policies. While most supranational biodiversity regulations require monitoring of biodiversity, obligations are legally enforceable only for the Nature Directives, the Water Framework Directive, and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive of the European Union. Of the assessed international conventions and other relevant policy instruments about 50% explicitly designate priority species and most focus on vertebrates. Lower emphasis is given to habitats and geographical priorities are even less pronounced. Also, an overarching system for monitoring prioritization is still missing. Our prioritization system is based on three main criteria: (1) legal requirement for reporting, (2) wording used to define priority or importance, and (3) inclusion in lists that indicate importance of monitoring due to e.g. threats or relevance of a region for a species. Our system contains five main priority levels, within which an additional division differentiates priorities according to national/European responsibility criteria. Based on this system, we provide recommendations for allocating species and habitats enlisted by the reviewed policy tools to explicit non-overlapping priority levels. Our approach will facilitate synergies between monitoring activities for different policy needs, and contribute to alleviate the notorious resource shortage for biodiversity monitoring.

The Mediterranean Red List assessment is a review of the conservation status at regional level of approximately 6, 000 species (amphibians, mammals, reptiles, fishes, butterflies, dragonflies, beetles, molluscs, corals and plants) according to the IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria. It identifies those species that are threatened with extinction at the regional level to guide appropriate conservation actions for improving their status. This report summarises the results for Mediterranean butterflies.

The rapid expansion of systematic monitoring schemes necessitates robust methods to reliably assess species' status and trends. Insect monitoring poses a challenge where there are strong seasonal patterns, requiring repeated counts to reliably assess abundance. Butterfly monitoring schemes (BMSs) operate in an increasing number of countries with broadly the same methodology, yet they differ in their observation frequency and in the methods used to compute annual abundance indices. Using simulated and observed data, we performed an extensive comparison of two approaches used to derive abundance indices from count data collected via BMS, under a range of sampling frequencies. Linear interpolation is most commonly used to estimate abundance indices from seasonal count series. A second method, hereafter the regional generalized additive model (GAM), fits a GAM to repeated counts within sites across a climatic region. For the two methods, we estimated bias in abundance indices and the statistical power for detecting trends, given different proportions of missing counts. We also compared the accuracy of trend estimates using systematically degraded observed counts of the Gatekeeper Pyronia tithonus (Linnaeus 1767). The regional GAM method generally outperforms the linear interpolation method. When the proportion of missing counts increased beyond 50%, indices derived via the linear interpolation method showed substantially higher estimation error as well as clear biases, in comparison to the regional GAM method. The regional GAM method also showed higher power to detect trends when the proportion of missing counts was substantial.Synthesis and applications. Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.Monitoring offers invaluable data to support conservation policy and management, but requires robust analysis approaches and guidance for new and expanding schemes. Based on our findings, we recommend the regional generalized additive model approach when conducting integrative analyses across schemes, or when analysing scheme data with reduced sampling efforts. This method enables existing schemes to be expanded or new schemes to be developed with reduced within-year sampling frequency, as well as affording options to adapt protocols to more efficiently assess species status and trends across large geographical scales.

Oil palm plantations have expanded rapidly in recent decades. This large-scale land-use change has had great ecological, economic, and social impacts on both the areas converted to oil palm and their surroundings. However, research on the impacts of oil palm cultivation is scattered and patchy, and no clear overview exists. We address this gap through a systematic and comprehensive literature review of all ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations, including several (genetic, medicinal and ornamental resources, information functions) not included in previous systematic reviews. We compare ecosystem functions in oil palm plantations to those in forests, as the conversion of forest to oil palm is prevalent in the tropics. We find that oil palm plantations generally have reduced ecosystem functioning compared to forests: 11 out of 14 ecosystem functions show a net decrease in level of function. Some functions show decreases with potentially irreversible global impacts (e.g. reductions in gas and climate regulation, habitat and nursery functions, genetic resources, medicinal resources, and information functions). The most serious impacts occur when forest is cleared to establish new plantations, and immediately afterwards, especially on peat soils. To variable degrees, specific plantation management measures can prevent or reduce losses of some ecosystem functions (e.g. avoid illegal land clearing via fire, avoid draining of peat, use of integrated pest management, use of cover crops, mulch, and compost) and we highlight synergistic mitigation measures that can improve multiple ecosystem functions simultaneously. The only ecosystem function which increases in oil palm plantations is, unsurprisingly, the production of marketable goods. Our review highlights numerous research gaps. In particular, there are significant gaps with respect to socio-cultural information functions. Further, there is a need for more empirical data on the importance of spatial and temporal scales, such as differences among plantations in different environments, of different sizes, and of different ages, as our review has identified examples where ecosystem functions vary spatially and temporally. Finally, more research is needed on developing management practices that can offset the losses of ecosystem functions. Our findings should stimulate research to address the identified gaps, and provide a foundation for more systematic research and discussion on ways to minimize the negative impacts and maximize the positive impacts of oil palm cultivation. peerReviewed