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Background: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021., Methods: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020., Results: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences., Conclusion: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Given the large number of mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, only population-based studies can provide reliable estimates of the magnitude of the pandemic. We therefore aimed to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic. For this purpose, we drew a representative sample of 2994 private households and invited household members 14 years and older to complete questionnaires and to provide blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0.4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 1.82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.37%) as compared to 0.46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47.4; 95% CI 7.2-307.0) and infections clustered within households. By this first population-based study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a large German municipality not affected by a superspreading event, we could show that at least one in four cases in private households was reported and known to the health authorities. These results will help authorities to estimate the true burden of disease in the population and to take evidence-based decisions on public health measures.

Background: Valid performance indicators help to track and improve health services. The aim of this study was to test the face and content validity of a set of performance indicators for service delivery in district health systems of low-income countries., Methods: A Delphi method with three stages was used. A panel of experts voted (yes vs no) on the face value of performance indicators. Agreement on the inclusion of indicators was a score of >75% and ≥50% during stages one and two, respectively. During stage three, indicators with a mean score of ≥3.8 on a five-point scale were included. The panel also rated the content validity of the overall set of indicators., Results: The panel agreed on the face value of 59 out of 238 performance indicators. Agreement on the content validity of the set of indicators reached 100%. Most of the retained indicators were related to the capacity of health facilities, the quality of maternal and child health services and HIV care and treatment., Conclusions: Policymakers in low-income countries could use a set of performance indicators with modest face and high content validity, and mainly aspects of capacity and quality to improve health service delivery in districts., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Global Health has not featured as prominently in the European Union (EU) research agenda in recent years as it did in the first decade of the new millennium, and participation of low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in EU health research has declined substantially. The Horizon Europe Research and Innovation Framework adopted by the European Parliament in April 2019 for the period 2021-2027 will serve as an important funding instrument for health research, yet the proposed health research budget to be finalised towards the end of 2019 was reduced from 10% in the current framework, Horizon 2020, to 8% in Horizon Europe. Our analysis takes the evolvement of Horizon Europe from the initial framework of June 2018 to the framework agreed on in April 2019 into account. It shows that despite some improvements in terms of Global Health and reference to the Sustainable Development Goals, European industrial competitiveness continues to play a paramount role, with Global Health research needs and relevant health research for LMICs being only partially addressed. We argue that the globally interconnected nature of health and the transdisciplinary nature of health research need to be fully taken into account and acted on in the new European Research and Innovation Framework. A facilitated global research collaboration through Horizon Europe could ensure that Global Health innovations and solutions benefit all parts of the world including EU countries., Competing Interests: Competing interests: RvL is also chief executive officer and founder of Madam Therapeutics, a private entity that is pursuing the development of new antibiotics. All other authors declare no known conflict of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Studies elucidating health-related information and special needs of Syrian migrants living in Germany are urgently required. However, data is scarce and finding appropriate sampling strategies to obtain representative results is challenging. In order to increase survey response in hard-to-reach populations, new methods were developed. One of them is respondent-driven sampling (RDS), a network sampling technique. We aimed to assess if respondent-driven sampling is a better approach to recruit Syrian migrants for health research than classical random sampling via the population registry., Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in Munich between April and June 2017 inviting adults (18+ years) born in Syria to answer an online questionnaire asking for sociodemographic and health-related information. Recruitment of participants was done using a) random sampling via the population registry (PR) and b) RDS. The two study populations recruited via respondent-driven sampling and the population registry were compared to a sample drawn from the population registry with respect to gender and citizenship. In addition, the two study populations were compared to each other regarding self-reported health status, healthcare utilisation, lifestyle factors, social network size, and acculturation., Results: Of 374 persons randomly drawn from the population registry, 49 individuals answered the questionnaire completely (response: 13.1%) while via RDS 195 participants were recruited by 16 seeds. More persons possessed German citizenship in the total sample (20.5, 95% CI: 16.6 to 24.8%) and in the PR study population (28.6, 95% CI: 16.6 to 43.3%) than in the study population (0.5, 95% CI: 0.1 to 1.5%). Participants recruited via the population registry were older, smoked less, reported more often to hold a university degree, and indicated a higher prevalence of chronic diseases, more frequent healthcare utilisation, higher scores of acculturation as well as a larger social network compared to the study population obtained via RDS., Conclusions: Response was very low in the PR sample. The number of participants recruited via RDS was larger and led to a study population with substantially different characteristics. Our study thus indicates that RDS is a useful way to gain access to specific subgroups that are hard to reach via traditional random sampling.

Dengue occurrence is partially influenced by the immune status of the population. Consequently, the introduction of a new Dengue virus serotype can trigger explosive epidemics in susceptible populations. The determination of clusters in this scenario can help to identify hotspots and understand the disease dispersion regardless of the influence of the population herd immunity. The present study evaluated the pattern and factors associated with dengue dispersion during the first epidemic related to Dengue virus serotype 4 in Vitória, Espírito Santo state, Brazil. Data on 18,861 dengue cases reported in Vitória from September 2012 to June 2013 were included in the study. The analysis of spatial variation in temporal trend was performed to detect clusters that were compared by their respective relative risk, house index, population density, and income in an ecological study. Overall, 11 clusters were detected. The time trend increase of dengue incidence in the overall study population was 636%. The five clusters that showed a lower time trend increase than the overall population presented a higher incidence in the beginning of the epidemic and, compared to the six clusters with higher time trend increase, they presented higher relative risk for their inhabitants to acquire dengue infection (P-value = 0.02) and a lower income (P-value <0.01). House index and population density did not differ between the clusters. Early increase of dengue incidence and higher relative risk for acquiring dengue infection were favored in low-income areas. Preventive actions and improvement of infrastructure in low-income areas should be prioritized in order to diminish the magnitude of dengue dispersion after the introduction of a new serotype.

Background: Dengue is caused by a RNA virus of the family Flaviviridae, which presents four serotypes (DENV-1 to DENV-4) capable of inducing hemorrhage. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the influence of serotype on the outcome of dengue., Methods: This cross-sectional study included data from dengue cases with serotyping results that occurred between 2009 and 2013 in Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brazil. Data were accessed through the Information System for Notifiable Diseases. Chi-square test, Fisher exact test, Mann-Whitney U test, and logistic regression were performed to assess associations between different serotypes and dengue severity, while considering gender and age., Results: The sample consisted of 485 laboratory confirmed dengue cases, of which 46.4 % were females, with median age of 26 years. Regarding overall samples, 77.3 % were caused by DENV-1, 16.1 % by DENV-4, 6.4 % by DENV-2, and 0.2 % by DENV-3. Severe dengue affected 6.6 % of all cases, of which 32.3 % of the cases caused by DENV-2, 6.4 % of those caused by DENV-4, 4.5 % of those caused by DENV-1, and none of those caused by DENV-3. Severe dengue was found to be seven times more frequent among cases of DENV-2 than among those of the other serotypes., Conclusions: The present study found that cases of DENV-2 had a higher proportion of severe dengue than among those of DENV-1 and DENV-4. Consequently, early detection of serotypes circulating in the territory could be an important approach to prevent increasing numbers of severe outcomes during dengue outbreaks by predicting the health support needed for early diagnoses and treatment of dengue cases.

Background: Malaria has been shown to change blood counts. Recently, a few studies have investigated the alteration of the peripheral blood monocyte-to-lymphocyte count ratio (MLCR) and the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte count ratio (NLCR) during infection with Plasmodium falciparum. Based on these findings this study investigates the predictive values of blood count alterations during malaria across different sub-populations., Methods: Cases and controls admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine from January 2000 through December 2010 were included in this comparative analysis. Blood count values and other variables at admission controlled for age, gender and immune status were statistically investigated., Results: The study population comprised 210 malaria patients, infected with P. falciparum (68%), Plasmodium vivax (21%), Plasmodium ovale (7%) and Plasmodium malariae (4%), and 210 controls. A positive correlation of parasite density with NLCR and neutrophil counts, and a negative correlation of parasite density with thrombocyte, leucocyte and lymphocyte counts were found. An interaction with semi-immunity was observed; ratios were significantly different in semi-immune compared to non-immune patients (P <0.001).The MLCR discriminated best between malaria cases and controls (AUC = 0.691; AUC = 0.741 in non-immune travellers), whereas the NLCR better predicted severe malaria, especially in semi-immune patients (AUC = 0.788)., Conclusion: Malaria causes typical but non-specific alterations of the differential blood count. The predictive value of the ratios was fair but limited. However, these changes were less pronounced in patients with semi-immunity. The ratios might constitute easily applicable surrogate biomarkers for immunity.

Detection of minimal residual disease (MRD) in acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) predicts outcome. Previous studies were invariably based on relative quantification and did not investigate sample-inherent parameters that influence test accuracy, which makes comparisons and clinical conclusions cumbersome. Hence, we conducted a prospective, population-based MRD study in 108 sequentially recruited children with ALL uniformly treated with the ALL-Berlin-Frankfurt-Münster (ALL-BFM) 95 protocol in Austria (median follow-up of 40 months). Using sensitive, limited antibody panel flow cytometry applicable to 97% of patients, we investigated 329 bone marrow samples from 4 treatment time points. MRD was quantified by blast percentages among nucleated cells (NCs) and by absolute counts (per microliter). Covariables such as NC count, normal B cells, and an estimate of the test sensitivity were also recorded. Presence and distinct levels of MRD correlated with a high probability of early relapse at each of the time points studied. Sequential monitoring at day 33 and week 12 was most useful for predicting outcome independently from clinical risk groups: patients with persistent disease (> or =1 blast/microL) had a 100% probability of relapse, compared to 6% in all others. Absolute MRD quantification was more appropriate than relative, due to considerable variations in total NC counts between samples. Regeneration of normal immature B cells after periods of rest from treatment limited the test sensitivity. In conclusion, MRD detection by flow cytometry is a strong and independent outcome indicator in childhood ALL. Standardization regarding absolute quantification on the basis of NCs and assessment during periods of continuous treatment promise to increase the accuracy, simplicity, and cost efficiency of the approach.

We recently investigated samples of pediatric B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP-ALL) and normal bone marrow (BM). We found that leukemic blasts, compared to their physiologic counterpart cells, frequently display aberrant phenotypes with respect to levels of expression of certain antigens. Using multiparameter flow cytometry, these differences enabled us to trace leukemic cells admixed to normal BM, which suggested that this approach might be a useful strategy for minimal residual disease detection. In the present study, we used the same multiparameter approach ("comparative phenotype mapping") to prove that such quantitative phenotypic differences really exist between malignant and normal BCP when simultaneously present in the BM. We demonstrate this by five exemplary follow-up BM samples from patients with BCP-ALL, all of which showed phenotypically aberrant cells according to levels of expression of CD10, CD11a, CD19, CD34, CD44, or CD45RA, as well as according to altered orthogonal light scattering properties. We confirmed the leukemic nature of these cells by polymerase chain reaction-based detection of bcr1/abl transcripts, and of leukemia clone-specific immunoglobulin heavy chain rearrangements in only the suspicious cells when sorted by flow cytometry, but not in normal BCP or non-B cells. Comparative phenotype mapping thus allows one to distinguish between normal and leukemic cells, and we show that it may enable rapid, specific, and quantitative detection of residual/resurgent leukemia in BCP-ALL.

Terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase (TdT)-positive cells in human bone marrow (BM) are a phenotypically inhomogeneous population of precursor cells. In their majority, these TdT+ cells are unambiguously committed to the B lineage, as evidenced by CD19 expression. However, TdT+ precursors that lack CD19 also exist and these may encompass a differentiation potential for the B as well as for other lineages. Because recent data suggested that CD19 expression is not the earliest differentiation event in B-cell ontogeny, we sought to reevaluate TdT+ lymphoid precursors in pediatric BM to define the phenotypic denominator of B-lineage affiliation upstream of CD19. Using four-color flow cytometry, we focused on the assessment of the CD79a antigen, which is highly B-cell specific and which may also be expressed very early in B-cell ontogeny. We found that a majority of TdT+ cells coexpressed CD19 and CD79a in addition to CD10 and CD34, whereas, in all investigated samples, some TdT+ precursors lacked CD19 but expressed CD79a, which suggestively indicates also their B-lineage affiliation. In contrast to the CD19(+) precursors, which were usually CD10(hi) and CD79b+, these CD19(-)CD79a+ putative B-cell precursors preferentially expressed CD10 at low levels and were CD79b+ in only 41%. About 17% of these TdT+CD19(-)CD79a+ precursors also coexpressed CD33 and CD7, but not myeloperoxidase, CD14, or cytoplasmic CD3, which is discussed in the light of cellular activation rather than lineage promiscuity. Our data confirm that the earliest differentiation stages of B cells can be dissected upon expression of the lineage antigens CD79a and CD19 and imply that CD79a is earlier expressed than CD19. This raises the chance to follow the sequential events heralding B-cell commitment in the most immature precursors by correlating phenotypic and genetic differentiation markers., (Copyright 1998 by The American Society of Hematology)